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Ominous Warnings
Strategic Vision vol. 9, no. 44 (January, 2020)
China’s ‘Three Warfares’ approach in Hong Kong causes wariness in Taiwan
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Shao-cheng Sun
Protesters in New York City gather in Times Square to show their support to the protestors in Hong Kong.
photo: Voice of America
When the united Kingdom handed Hong Kong over to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1997, Hong Kong was guaranteed semi-autonomy until 2047 under the One-Country, Two-Systems agreement, but many residents believe that the Beijing regime has encroached on their rights. In response to the homicide of a couple while visiting Taiwan, the Hong Kong government proposed an extradition bill in February 2019 that would establish a mechanism for transfers of criminals to China. Residents expressed fears that Chinese laws would hijack Hong Kong’s jurisdiction and weaken its autonomy. Since 31 March, 2019, millions of protesters have taken to the streets to express their anger against the bill.
Some of the protests escalated into violent clashes with the police. Protestors have issued five demands: withdraw the bill, have the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, step down, create an inquiry into police brutality, release those arrested during the protests, and institute greater democratic freedoms. The ongoing violent protests have become the most serious challenge to the Chinese leadership since the 1989 Tiananmen Square Protests. On 9 July, Carrie Lam announced that the bill was dead. However, Hong Kong has continued to suffer serious turmoil by unceasing waves of college students’ protests. On 24 November, 2019, pro-democracy parties won 201 seats and pro-Beijing parties won only 28. The outcome of the election has shown a vivid illustration of voters’ anger with Beijing.
Taipei and Washington have expressed their concern for violent confrontations between protestors and police in Hong Kong, but Beijing has regarded those concerns as an intervention in its domestic affairs. On October 15, 2019, the US House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, requiring the US government to impose sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials responsible for human rights abuses. Republic of China (ROC) President Tsai Ing-wen also expressed her concern about the situation in Hong Kong, emphasizing that Taiwan’s democracy had to be protected. Tsai promised that she would never accede to the One-Country, Two-Systems scheme. In response, the Chinese government blamed outside interference and voiced its firm support for the Hong Kong government forces.
Lessons for Taiwan
Since the Chinese government has been trying to interest the Taiwanese electorate in unification under the One-Country, Two-Systems policy, the crackdown on Hong Kong and the abrogation of Beijing’s promises of 50 years of autonomy that led to the protests, serve as an important lesson to Taiwan. Policymakers in Taipei, as well as the average Taiwanese voter, can learn important lessons by watching carefully how China chooses to handle the crisis in Hong Kong.
Part of a Lennon Wall near Lok Fu MTR station. These demonstrations of encouragement and solidarity have sprung up throughout the region.
photo: SCP-2000
The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission introduced“Three Warfares” strategy in 2003, in the People’s Liberation Army(PLA) Political Work Guidelines. The first type of warfare, public opinion warfare, uses information delivered to a populace through news services,Internet sites, and other social media to influence their perspectives.Second, psychological warfare attempts to cause the enemy to divide into factions with the intention of intimidating adversaries until the PRC’s desired outcomes are achieved.
Third, legal warfare uses law fare and other manipulations of the enemy’s legal system to constrain his behavior. China’s response to the Hong Kong protests includes all the elements of the Three Warfares. The Chinese government uses public opinion as a weapon by propagandizing through various forms of media to weaken the adversary’s will to fight. The PRC Foreign Ministry sent a letter to the foreign media in Beijing, requesting them to follow the PRC’s position on the protests. China’s state-run media depicts the protests as separatist riots and mobs, condemning them for their destruction of public and private property, and attacking police. For example,the People’s Daily commented that the savagery of the rioters had transgressed the bottom line of human morality. Chinese mass media advocates that the silent majority in Hong Kong have every reason to defend their homes against such protests.In addition, the protests were closely censored on Chinese social media. For example, keyword searches of “Hong Kong” and “extradition bill” led to other, unrelated sites. Accounts that posted content and news about the protests were blocked. Many disinformation campaigns have bombarded WeChat and Facebook. Images and videos of protesters have been altered to make the pro-democracy activists look bad. Some attacks were coordinated by state-backed operations and have been traced back to the Chinese government.
Psychological warfare seeks to underminean adversary’s combat power, resolve, and decision-making,while exacerbating internal disputes tocause the enemy to divide into factions. The Chinesegovernment has aroused fear to intimidate the protestors.The PLA has distributed at least two videosfor psychological intimidation. The first video showsarmed troops cracking down on protestors. Anothervideo showed the People’s Armed Police conductingan anti-riot drill in Shenzhen. The exercise attractedattention given the resemblance between the drill andthe clashes in adjacent Hong Kong.
First warning
On 6 October, the PLA issued a first warning to the protesters, who were shining laser beams on the PLA garrison building in Hong Kong. The Chinese government attempted to intimidate protestors, telling the Hong Kong government that if they can’t get things under control, Beijing will have to intervene.In addition to military intimidation, Chinese authorities pressured Hong Kong’s flag carrier, Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., to suspend its employees who participated in the anti-extradition protests.
Legal warfare uses all aspects of the law to secure legal superiority and to delegitimize an adversary. According to Article 14 of the Basic Law, the PLA Hong Kong Garrison shall not interfere in local affairs. Unless they are requested by the Hong Kong government, these troops cannot be deployed to maintain social order. The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO) under the PRC State Council expressed the PRC’s support for Ms Lam and urged the public to oppose the use of violence. When asked about the possibility of PLA intervention, HKMAO responded that the basis for such a deployment was in the Basic Law and Garrison Law. Under the One-Country, Two-Systems policy, the Chinese government views the police force as Hong Kong’s pillar of stability and shapes an image of upholding the rule of law to win over the majority of residents. Tian Feilong, associate professor at Beihang University’s Law School in Beijing, said the PRC was hopeful that Hong Kong could resolve the crisis by itself, adding that unless Hong Kong gets totally out of control, the PRC would not want to get involved.
The Chinese government has expressed its opposition to the protests, while utilizing the Three Warfares against the protests and their supporters. The PLA has increased military deployments near the Hong Kong-Shenzhen border to serve as a warning to protestors. The Beijing regime is still reluctant to send the PLA to intervene in the conflict, considering the damage another Tiananmen Square Massacre could do its international image. The ongoing protests have alarmed many Taiwanese, who have witnessed Hong Kong freedoms decline since the 1997 handover. The Taiwanese fear that Hong Kong will be their future if they are forced to accept Beijing’s terms.
A helicopter carries ordnance between the USNS Carl Brashear, right, and the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt.
photo: Nicholas Huynh
As the Taiwanese watch with concern the suppression of the Hong Kong demonstrators, President Tsai’s stance on China has become her biggest selling point. Before the Hong Kong protests erupted, Tsai still lagged challenger Han Kuo-yu of the opposition KMT by double digits in most opinion polls. Tsai’s subsequent explosion in popularity confirmed that most residents in Taiwan support her position visà-vis the PRC. A Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council poll released on October 24 showed that 69.4 percent of respondents said they feel an unfriendly attitude from China, while 54.6 percent said the Chinese government holds an unfriendly attitude toward Taiwan citizens. Over 70 percent supported the Taiwan government’s call for the Hong Kong government to respond to the demands for freedom and democracy from its people and promptly engage in dialogue. There is a rising anti-Chinese sentiment in Taiwan, among the youth in particular.
Protestors wearing masks and using umbrellas as shields square off against riot police at an anti-totalitarianism rally in Hong Kong.
photo: Studio Incendo
The One-Country, Two-Systems framework was originally designed for Taiwan by Deng Xiaoping, but first applied to Hong Kong. Some Hong Kong protesters carried placards that read, “One-Country, TwoSystems is a Total Failure.” Hong Kongers have given China a failing grade on the implementation of OneCountry, Two-Systems. President Tsai issued a statement about the protests on her Twitter account saying, “As long as I am President, One-Country, TwoSystems will never be an option.” Multiple surveys have suggested that the vast majority of Taiwanese oppose the One-Country, Two-Systems proposal. For example, a Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council poll in October showed that almost 90 percent of respondents opposed it. Apparently, One-Country, Two-Systems would not work in Taiwan.
Beijing will likely continue to push the Tsai’s administration to accept the so-called 1992 Consensus by increasing military coercion and poaching the few remaining ROC diplomatic allies. At the same time, the majority of Taiwanese will continue to oppose the One-Country, Two-Systems policy. Unless policymakers and scholars come up with creative solutions for future bilateral engagements, relations between Taiwan and China will continue to be marked by friction and will not see improvement.
Dr. Shao-cheng Sun is an assistant professor at The Citadel specializing in China security, East Asian affairs,and cross-strait relations. He can be reached for comment at ssun@citadel.edu
