Paradigm Shift

Strategic Vision vol. 9, no. 45 (March, 2020)

Pandemic highlights need to classify outbreaks as national security threats

Chung-young Chang

A monitor at Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center displays the growing number of COVID-19 cases worldwide.

photo: Taiwan Presidential Office

Anew infectious respiratory disease, COVID-19, emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and has been spreading over China and across national borders. By 10 March, 2020, there were a total of 113,702 confirmed cases and 4,012 deaths. In addition to China, which was the epicenter of the epidemic outbreak, South Korea, Italy, and Iran were hit early and hard, and the United States is now facing a serious challenge as case numbers continue to rise. Countries around the globe are taking precautionary measures, including restricting cross-border travel and mass crowd activities, in an effort to contain the person-to-person spread of the virus.

While the WHO is still urging the international community to be well-prepared for the coming pandemic, the health minister of Germany took action to proclaim a pandemic on 5 March. In light of the fact that community transmissions of the virus have already been found in several countries worldwide, together with the growing number of confirmed cases, the epidemic outbreak may already be a pandemic. Judging by the potential severe consequence of this outbreak in terms of the human toll and socioeconomic impact, the World Health Organization (WHO) decided to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January, 2020, and ask for, among other things, US$675 million to help protect states with weaker health systems as part of its Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan. The Wuhan Coronavirus Disease 2019 was formally named COVID-19 on 11 February by the WHO. It has also become a common challenge not only for China but also the rest of the world, since epidemic disease knows no boundary and will reach us, one way or the other, following the trail blazed by globalization. COVID-19 is not the first epidemic outbreak that has caused serious damage and loss to humankind, nor will it be the last. In retrospect, the 1918 influenza pandemic, widely known as the Spanish flu, was an H1N1 strain in 1918-1920 that had an estimated death toll of between 50 million and 100 million. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) of 2003 resulted in 8,098 cases and 774 deaths globally, and impacted the global economy to the tune of about US$40 billion. The H1N1variant reemerged in 2009-2010 as a flu pandemic labeled swine flu, causing 150,000–575,000 fatalities. South Korea suffered economic losses of US$10 billion and 36 deaths due to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome that hit in 2015. An outbreak of the Zika virus was declared a global public health emergency by the WHO on 1 February, 2016 and was regarded as an “extraordinary event.” Singapore was hit hard with huge loss of tourist revenue in the middle of the Zika outbreak. While Dengue Fever is a common epidemic in southern Taiwan during summer time, it took a heavy toll in 2015 with 43,419 cases and 209 deaths on record, at an estimated economic cost of US$950 million.

Epidemic events

An airman with the 354th Medical Group sanitizes her hands before entering the clinic on Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska.

photo: Beuax Herbert

Needless to say, there have been many other epidemic events, including H5N1 of 2004-2005, H7N9 of 2015, and Ebola of 2014-2016, that have posed a real and massive threat and caused severe damage. It is beyond doubt that these epidemic diseases and other, similar kinds of viral variants will return, perhaps in a more unpredictable and potent way, to pose a serious threat to national security and global security as a whole. Hence, it is worth noting that the Canadian government identified pandemics as a major threat to the security and interests of Canada, and advocated to strengthen and better prepare for future public- health emergencies in its National Security Policy of 2004. Many other countries, including China, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom and Taiwan, also include the concept of health security in their national security strategies.

Severe disruptions

In addition to an increasing human toll and heavy medical cost, the devastating effects of COVID-19 may be just starting to hit the world economy hard. Tourism-related businesses have so far been among the economic sectors hit the hardest, in addition to the severe disruption of the normal operation of interconnected global manufacturing and supply chains, especially since China, once known as the world’s factory, has been unable to recover from the socio-economic impact of the outbreak. In fact, the Japanese and US automobile industries and manufacturers of 3C electronic products have been forced to shut down production, or at least scale it down, due to the lack of availability of parts normally supplied from China.

It is important to note that while the COVID-19 epidemic seems to have begun to subside inside China since late February, at least according to official Chinese statistics, 42 percent of China’s economy has been affected by the lockdown policy, and its economic growth rate is estimated to have slumped to 4.5 percent in the first three months of 2020—down from 6 percent in the previous quarter of 2019. It has been reported that Chinese airlines are expected to lose US$12.8 billion in revenue because of the drop in demand.

A factory worker in Taipei helps produce masks for the rapid spike in demand caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.

photo: Taiwan Presidential Office

In addition to all of this, the challenges that the global economy has been facing remain, and will be getting worse. The worldwide economic growth rate is also expected to slump in the first quarter of 2020, perhaps reaching 2.4 percent, compared to 2.9 percent in 2019. It is estimated that globally, the airline industry may lose US$29 billion in 2020, according to the International Air Transportation Association. As the Interim Economic Outlook report released by the OECD on 2 March, 2020, indicates, aside from trade disputes and political tensions among nations, current and potential containment measures as a response to, and loss of investment confidence and consumption as a result of, the outbreak of COVID-19 would dampen national and global economic growth and may drive some economies into recession, including Japan and some European nations.

A US Joint Chief of Staff daily intelligence brief predicted in early March that COVID-19 would likely become a global pandemic within the next 30 days, and that the socio-economic impact of the outbreak will be more extensive and long-lasting if that estimate is accurate. Perhaps it is just as OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone pointed out in the Interim Outlook report, “the COVID-19 is giving a further blow to a global economy that was already weakened by trade and political tensions.” However, it is worth noting that while the outbreak will slow down economic growth, drain out national resources, and weaken national strength, it may also be an investment opportunity for the pharmaceutical and bio-medical industries to develop a vaccine and relevant bio-medicine to combat the virus as well.

Prepare for the worst

How to promptly and properly manage the deadly and costly security risk of a pandemic has become an urgent task for both national governments and international organizations. This is especially true for those world bodies whose purview is health and disease prevention, as well as for the governments of China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Japan and the United States. These nations are experiencing a growing number of confirmed cases at the present time. Since the COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to leave any country or area untouched, however, the rest of the global community will have no choice but do their best and prepare for the worst. Boone identified several essentials that need to be incorporated into any strategy to manage this pandemic.

“Governments need to act immediately to contain the epidemic, support the health care system, protect people, shore up demand and provide a financial lifeline to households and businesses that are most affected,” she said. The WHO has provided technical

“Planners have to start thinking about the unthinkable, and incorporate it into their strategic thinking on national security.”

guidance and calls for a number of actions, including an adequate supply of personal protective equipment and proper training for health workers; promoting “solidarity, not stigma” to address COVID-19; WHOled joint investigation and research missions must share their findings and recommendations for managing the outbreak; a proper guidance on points of entry and public health preparedness and response for the aviation and maritime sectors; guidance for mass gathering events and taking care of ill travelers; a WHO checklists for risk communication and community engagement (RCCE) readiness and initial response for COVID-19; and others. The key to success, however, rests in cooperation between all levels of government and the people, within and across countries. Cooperation in ensuring transparency, sharing information, and providing mutual assistance across national borders is of particular importance in order to timely identify, contain and manage the spread of the virus.

There may, however, be other critical efforts and arrangements that need to be made ready, or be already in place, to deal with this kind of non-traditional security challenge that is hard to predict, prevent, prepare for and respond to. Firstly, planners have to start thinking about the unthinkable, and incorporate it into their strategic thinking on national security.

US Navy Hospital Corpsman Rhiley Bauer examines Logistic Specialist Didier Dorsainville during a medical training drill.

photo: Brandie Nuzzi

Adopting a horizon scanning approach may be useful for policy makers to anticipate and prepare for risks that are beyond detection. While traditional security, which focuses on military preparedness and strategic defense, will remain crucial for the survival and security of nations, the importance of non-traditional security issues, such as epidemic outbreaks and public health emergencies, must not be overlooked or set aside. Developing a national security strategy may require, among other things, that more comprehensive and responsive forecasting be employed that has a forward-looking vision by monitoring global trends and anticipating their impact on the national security environment.

Secondly, a new, more integrated organizational arrangement may be necessary to properly respond to the challenge of a changing environment. The United States created its Department of Homeland Security in 2003 by integrating almost two dozen separate departments and agencies, as an organizational response to the threat of terrorism. The Canadian government likewise integrated six agencies to form Public Safety Canada in 2003 to ensure coordination across all federal departments and agencies responsible for national security. China established a new Office for Emergency Response and Management under the State Council in 2006 and expanded it, integrating 12 other departmental units and agencies, to become a new Department of Emergency Response and Management in 2018 to deal with various kinds of public emergencies and to ensure social order and public security in China. Several other countries, including Singapore, Japan, and the United Kingdom, also created similar ad-hoc mechanisms or task forces to manage emergencies and crises.

Hence, it is recommended that the Executive Yuan’s Office for Homeland Security be integrated with the Office for Disaster Prevention and Management and the Department of Cyber Security, so as to create a single organization in charge of integrated homeland security matters in Taiwan, including counter-terrorism, critical infrastructure protection, disaster management, and cyber security. This new organizational arrangement, operating on the basis of the integration of organizational missions and functions and a whole-of-government approach, will be particularly useful in dealing with complex disasters that used to require time-consuming or painstaking coordination and cooperation among different agencies with distinct jurisdictions.

Dr. Chung-young Chang is a professor at Fo-Guang University in Taiwan. He can be reached for comment at cychang@mail.fgu.edu.tw