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Reading Misfortunes
Strategic Vision vol. 11, no. 54 (October, 2022) Reading Misfortunes
Though timing varies, predictions agree: war is coming to Taiwan Strait
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Charles Yang
In recent years, political and military circles in the United States have begun to issue frequent predictions about just when the Taiwan Strait war will break out. While those predictions vary, they all share the same dire warning: the time is getting nearer. Just recently, during the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping stated that, “we will never promise to give up the use of force” regarding Taiwan. This came at a time when high-level US officials have been reiterating warnings about an impending cross-strait war. Do they have access to relevant information, or are they engaging in political propaganda? Taiwanese people are very concerned.
On September 18, 2021, Nikkei Asia published an interview with Admiral Philip Davidson, who at the time was the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, in which the admiral expressed his belief that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would have the capability and the capacity to forcibly unify Taiwan within the next six years. Speaking at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing this May, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines describes as “acute” the threat that Beijing would use force to annex Taiwan before 2030. US intelligence agencies, she clarified, did not believe that the Ukraine war would prompt China’s leader Xi Jinping to accelerate his plans to take over the island.
Faster timeline
More recently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on October 17, 2022, that China had changed its approach and was now operating on a “much faster timeline” to annex Taiwan. Two days later, Michael Gilday, the chief of naval operations for the US Navy, said that the fleet must be prepared for a Chinese invasion of the island, which could happen at any point before 2024. “When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window; I can’t rule it out,” he opined. “I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that. It’s just that we can’t wish that away,” Gilday added.
Taiwanese people have heard similar arguments many times, from politicians speaking on cross strait issues. Much of the public has become so inured to such sensationalistic talk that they have come to greet any new pronouncements as a kind of bluff, or taunt. This is partly the reason why people have a negative attitude toward the idea of a longer conscription policy, and many politicians have avoided discussing defense policy in public, using the special budget to increase national defense spending in order to avoid people’s objections. Last year, for example, the Republic of China (ROC) National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Mingtong predicted that Taipei and Beijing wouldn’t come to blows anytime during the tenure of ROC President Tsai Ing-wen. He changed his position on October 20, 2022, however, when he said that recent theories suggesting an invasion date of as early as 2023 or 2025 might be based on China’s renewed attempts to force Taipei to the negotiating table using the threat of war.
He did not specify what those negotiations might involve. A former Democratic Progressive Party deputy secretary-general and pan-green opinion leader, Dr. You Ying-lung, interpreted this statement as mere politicking, saying that Chen was spreading fear in order to aid his party in the election campaign.
Repeated warnings
Opinions are split among Taiwanese people on what implications these predictions of war by senior US officials may have. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities in the Russo-Ukrainian War, the vast majority of experts in the world, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself, doubted whether the Russians would actually attack. It was the United States that repeatedly warned about a Russian invasion. The results hint at the superiority of US intelligence capabilities. In addition, a public survey conducted in October 2022 by a foundation run by KMT Legislator Johnny Chiang showed that over 48 percent of Taiwanese respondents believe that the United States will deploy troops to help defend Taiwan, even though Washington did not send troops to aid Ukraine.
While there are many parallels, there are important differences that distinguish the situation in the Taiwan Strait from the Ukraine-Russia relationship prior to the outbreak of war. For example, Russia’s military was already massing on the Ukrainian border, ostensibly conducting a military exercise. In theory, there would have been no need to bring so many supplies if it were only an exercise. On the contrary, if the US intelligence community watches carefully with satellites, it should still be able to see clues of such a buildup across the Taiwan Strait. So far, the PRC has shown no signs of sending unusually large numbers of troops to the coastal provinces. Are the proposed timetables for the Chinese attack, made by so many high-level officials from America, based on a US political offensive, or on the PRC’s military preparations? Taiwanese people deserve more clarity on just what information goes into making these predictions.
President Tsai took a political risk when she consented to ease restrictions on imports of US beef and pork products without negotiation, and the people recognize that the Tsai government has had opportunities to demonstrate obedience to the United States. The United States has the will and ability to influence decision-making in the ROC government. If war is really approaching, Taiwan is clearly not ready.
As reported in The Washington Post, “Taiwan is building backup communications systems, stockpiling supplies, sharpening its hybrid warfare skills, reforming its system of military reserves and trying to prepare a frightened population for what might come.” Despite these efforts, several unknowns remain. For example, how will these supplies reach the people once the war breaks out? People in Taiwan are all too familiar with onerous government paperwork, especially on logistics and civil defense issues.
This raises a more important question: If war is indeed approaching, why doesn’t the United States pressure the Tsai government to extend its existing fourmonth mandatory military training for conscripts to at least a year, and to include women in such training in order to build a stronger defense against Chinese invasion? After all, the United States has claimed that it seeks peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and similar policies have certainly been suggested by former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper and various US think tanks.
On the right track
Some experts assert that the Tsai administration has done more than her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou to strengthen Taiwan’s military, and that everything is on the right track. In terms of perceptions, however, the feeling is different. There was much less saberrattling coming out of China during the Ma administration, largely due to Ma’s China-friendly policies and the fact that China was still perceived in a relatively positive light in the international community back then. Nevertheless, there are a small minority of people in Taiwan who blame Beijing’s more aggressive stance on President Tsai.
Some political analysts have predicted that an announcement to extend mandatory military training will be made after the nine-in-one elections on November 26, 2022, are over. Experts in this field generally agree on one thing, however: war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is getting closer and closer. If the Tsai government can convey a sense of urgency to the Taiwanese people, without making them think it is merely scaremongering for political and electoral gain, then this will be a positive achievement for the administration.
In short, Taiwanese people are frequently reading the predictions of various senior US officials that a Chinese attack on Taiwan is on the horizon. This is contrasted with a perceived lack of concrete action on the issue from the government. Such a war would be devastating to Taiwan, and to the region, and hence the government should take it seriously and take more proactive measures in the nation’s defense. For example, just like the eased restrictions on US beef and pork imports, Tsai could act more decisively on inplementing, rather than continuing to examine, concrete measures to shore up the nation’s defense. Surely this would give the people of Taiwan more confidence that the government is serious about preparing for the worst while hoping for the best. The former is equally as important as the latter.
Dr. Charles Yang is an adjunct associate professor in the Department of Public Administration and Management at Chinese Culture University in Taipei. He graduated from the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University. He can be reached at: d88341003@ntu.edu.tw