Trilateral Measures

Strategic Vision vol. 11, no. 54 (October, 2022) Trilateral Measures

Creative options called for to counter China’s rising threat to maritime East Asia

Shao-cheng Sun

Then-Vice President Joe Biden meets with Capt. Greg Huffman on the bridge of USS John C. Stennis during the 2016 Rim of the Pacific maritime exercise.

photo: Luke Moyer

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased its aggressive maritime activities in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, posing a grave threat to the security of the entire region. In the East China Sea, Chinese vessels routinely patrol waters around Japan in an attempt by Beijing to project its naval presence out into the Pacific Ocean. Since 2012, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have operated almost daily near the Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands, hoping their presence there will bolster Beijing’s claim of sovereignty over that island group.

In the South China Sea, The PRC has advanced its territorial claims in the contested waters using various hostile approaches, including building artificial islands, increasing maritime patrols, and deploying weaponry. Chinese fishing and coast guard vessels have constantly operated in the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, and Indonesia. In the Taiwan Strait, Chinese warships routinely conduct drills near the island in a clear attempt to intimidate Taiwan’s leaders. They also practice anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) tactics that would be employed to prevent US forces from coming to Taiwan’s defense. China’s military aggressions have made the use of force to achieve its goal of unification more likely.

Aviation Boatswain’s Mates direct a CH-53E Super Sea Stallion helicopter during flight operations aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Peleliu (LHA 5).

photo: Katarzyna Kobiljak

In the face of China’s maritime expansion, leaders from Taiwan, the United States, and Japan all believe that there is a need to enhance maritime security cooperation. For example, in January 2021, China passed a law that authorized its coast guard to use weapons against foreign ships, if they “illegally enter China’s waters.” In response, Taiwan and the United States signed on March 25 a memorandum of understanding to establish the Coast Guard Working Group (CGWG), bringing the Taiwan-US relationship ever closer. Security scholars have begun to discuss ways of coast guard cooperation, communication, and conflict de-escalation between Japan and Taiwan. This paper proposes options for enhancing TaiwanUS-Japan maritime security cooperation, by reviewing their current cooperation and suggesting policy recommendations.

Geostrategic advantage

Taiwan is located at the center of the First Island Chain. Based on this geostrategic advantage, Taiwan is a valuable asset for the United States and Japan, and an irreplaceable factor for confronting China’s maritime ambitions in the region. With China’s maritime activities increasing, coordination on maritime issues between Taiwan, the United States, and Japan is being advocated strongly.

In terms of Taiwan-US maritime security cooperation, Taipei and Washington have increased their joint efforts to fight against China’s incremental poaching in Taiwan’s territorial waters. For example, Beijing has dispatched hundreds of sand dredgers to the Republic of China’s (ROC) offshore islands to steal sand from the ocean floor for construction projects in China, as well as to intimidate the local populations and strain ROC Coast Guard resources. The coast guard has seized many of these dredgers, and scared off many more, but their numbers are overwhelming.

The Taiwan-US CGWG has among its objectives preserving maritime resources, reducing illegal fishing, and participating in joint maritime search-andrescue operations. The group focuses on improving communications, building cooperation, and sharing information between the two counties’ respective de facto embassies: the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) and the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT). This is accomplished through their designated representatives, the US Coast Guard and the ROC Coast Guard Administration.

This working group symbolizes the US-Taiwan effort to counter China’s use of its own coast guard, bolstered by its civilian fishing militias, to assert Beijing’s territorial claims. It is hoped that the CGWG mechanism will enhance future naval cooperation in confronting China’s naval expansion in the Pacific Ocean. For example, TECRO stated that the coast guards of both countries would forge a stronger partnership and contribute even more to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific region. The AIT echoed that the United States supports Taiwan’s meaningful participation and contributions to issues of global concern, including maritime security, law enforcement, information exchange, and global cooperation.

Looking at the issue of Taiwan-Japan maritime security cooperation, the two countries revived decadeslong stalled negotiations on a fishery agreement to finally conclude a pact in April 2013, despite being unable to agree on the sovereignty of the Diaoyutai/ Senkaku Islands. Under this agreement, Taipei and Tokyo agreed to resolve fisheries issues stemming from overlapping EEZs. They also exempted their fishing boats from each other’s law enforcement agencies. Furthermore, in October 2016, the first TaiwanJapan maritime affairs cooperation dialogue was held, in which delegates covered bilateral cooperation on a range of issues such as fisheries and marine technology. Moreover, an agreement in principle was reached to allow Taiwan’s coast guard assets to coordinate with their Japanese counterparts for the purposes of rescue at sea.

In 2018, the two countries signed a pair of MOUs to enhance cooperation in tackling smuggling and illegal immigration. On 26 August, 2021, Sato Masahisa, head of the Liberal Democratic Party’s committee on Taiwan relations, tweeted his hope that “one day, Japan, US, and Taiwan coast guards will train together.” On 28 August, the ruling parties of Taiwan and Japan held a virtual meeting on coast guard cooperation, at which the two parties discussed how to improve deterrence and security capabilities, such as information exchange and bilateral cooperation. These developments reflect a growing consensus in Tokyo that China’s rising threat against Taiwan will have serious implications for Japan’s security as well.

If Taiwan were to be annexed by China, this would pose a grave threat to the US-Japan security alliance. If the United States decided to defend Taiwan, it would surely seek support from Japan and would rely on US forces posted there. Now that the United States has further improved security ties with Taiwan, this has encouraged Japan’s leaders to reassess their Taiwan policy. What follows are suggestions for policymakers in formulating maritime security policies to deal with a potential crisis.

The ROC Coast Guard 1000-ton cutter Pingtung. Taiwan’s Coast Guard can jointly coordinate with its Japanese counterpart regarding rescue at sea.

photo: MNB

The Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) team from USS Barry (DDG 52) conducts rigid-hull inflatable boat (RIB) training in the Philippine Sea.

photo: Samuel Hardgrove

Enhancing security cooperation

First, Taiwan-US maritime security cooperation must be enhanced. In an effort to support Taiwan, a US Navy destroyer and the Coast Guard Cutter Munro staged a series of routine exercises in the East China Sea, including conducting routine Taiwan Strait transits on 27 August, 2021. Before transiting the Taiwan Strait, the Munro participated in a drill with the Japan Coast Guard vessel Aso that included communications, search and rescue, and confronting threats. They exercise emphasized that participating vessels were following international law at all times, but the drills nonetheless sent a clear message to China. Looking forward, vessels from the ROC Coast Guard and Navy could also conduct joint maritime drills, maritime law-enforcement training, and exercises with the US Coast Guard and Navy vessels.

Second, US allies should be encouraged to support Taiwan. To deter China’s military aggression, the United States and its treaty partners should issue a warning to Beijing that their intervention would be likely in the event of a Chinese military attack on Taiwan. Washington could also encourage its allies to support Taipei in joining the regional security framework. For example, the US Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) aims to bolster the capabilities of regional allies and partners to resist Chinese coercion. The PDI also highlights investments to improve allied and partners’ capabilities and to develop innovative concepts to counter threats using cutting-edge technologies. Under the PDI framework, the United States could encourage East Asian countries to enhance their security cooperation with Taiwan.

An aviation machinist’s mate in the Japan Coast Guard demonstrates sword play aboard the Coast Guard vessel Yashima as part of the Pacific Unity exercise.

Third, Taiwan-Japan maritime security cooperation should be established. Since the inaugural maritime dialogue in 2016, the two sides have discussed maritime-related issues to resolve potential points of friction. Tokyo may find the need to create a mechanism for dialogue with Taipei to discuss the issue of risk-control at sea. The ruling parties of Taiwan and Japan have already held a virtual meeting on coast guard cooperation. The two parties discussed how to improve deterrence and security capabilities, such as information exchange and bilateral cooperation. These dialogues could serve as a format for future communication between the two governments. Since the United States and Taiwan established the CGWG, and US-Japan Coast Guard cooperation has become solid, the US government could facilitate the establishment of a similar working group between Taiwan and Japan.

Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is a critical point of interest for both the United States and Japan. Given China’s growing assertiveness in the region, it is imperative for security planners to explore creative approaches to pursue greater security cooperation. After Taipei and Washington established the CGWG, it has become clear that a similar mechanism between Japan and Taiwan would be indispensable.

Several suggestions have been proposed. First, Taipei and Washington need to advance bilateral maritime security cooperation: their coast guards and navies should conduct joint maritime exercises. Second, the United States and its allies could warn Beijing that they will definitely respond to any Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States should also push its allies to establish security cooperation with Taiwan. Third, to institutionalize a Taiwan-Japan security mechanism, Tokyo and Taipei should establish a routine pattern of “legislator-level 2+2” talks. Lastly, since Taiwan and the United States have set up a working group for their respective coast guards, and since US-Japan coast guard cooperation has become robust, the US government should help Japan establish a similar working group with Taiwan.

In the face of China’s maritime expansion, there is an urgent need for strategic planners to create more practical and creative options for developing a strong trilateral maritime security cooperation to counter the rising threat posed by China.

Dr. Shao-cheng Sun is an assistant professor at The Citadel specializing in China’s security, East Asian affairs, and cross-strait relations. He can be reached for comment at ssun@citadel.edu