Regional Complexities

Strategic Vision, Special Issue (Summer, 2021)

Biden administration faces a range of challenging issues in the Middle East

Osama Kubbar

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, the West Bank.

photo: Ron Przysucha

While it is too early to fully assess, it looks as though US President Joe Biden is crafting a new Middle East policy that is based on containment, assertiveness, and multilateral engagement. While Biden will work hard to dismantle the legacy in the region of his predecessor, former US President Donald Trump, one thing that will not change much is the US approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Biden has already signaled to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) that the United States will not continue to support the war on Yemen, and has removed the Houthi movement from its list of terrorist organizations. In turn, the KSA has made noticeable changes to its foreign policy, namely a reconciliation with Qatar, and declaring its intention to end the war in Yemen and pursue sincere rapprochement with Iran.

Biden has offered an olive branch to Iran and intends to start a new chapter with that country, to attempt to push its leaders to rehabilitate Tehran’s foreign policy. In Libya, Washington is getting more involved with an apparent major push for a peaceful end to that country’s decade-long civil war. However, the new US administration does not yet have a firm strategy. Since Turkey is an active player in Libya, the strained Turkish-US and Turkish-EU relationships are hindering the possibility of a speedy resolution.

Although it is still early days in the Biden administration’s first term, some changes in US policy towards the Middle East are already apparent. The recent Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which erupted on May 10, 2021, forced the administration to react. Initially, the future of the Palestine-Israeli conflict did not rank high on Biden’s diplomatic to-do list. However, after the recent Gaza conflict, which required intensive US diplomatic efforts, the Biden administration had to move quickly to reorder their priorities as they sought to stabilize the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, craft a reconstruction aid plan for the Palestinians, and prevent a recurrence of what became Biden’s first foreign policy crisis.

Biden received wide international criticism for what was seen as an unfair policy during the recent Palestinian-Israeli conflict: The United States blocked the UN Security Council (UNSC) from issuing a resolution condemning Israel; it also delayed the UNSC meeting—a move that was widely interpreted as giving Israel license to intensify its mission and eliminate as many targets as possible before the UNSC meeting. Moreover, Biden declared his support for Israel, and stated that Israel has the right to defend itself. In addition, the Biden administration has approved a US$735 million sale of precision-guided weapons to Israel.

“Iran is suffering from the comprehensive US sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic has added more stress on the Iranian regime and people.”

It is important to bear in mind, however, that Washington considers Hamas a terrorist organization, and is therefore constrained against negotiating with the group directly. The Hamas movement is the most popular among Palestinians, and is the most active in the conflict with Israel. Moreover, its political arm rules the Gaza strip. Therefore, it is difficult to envision a peace process without including Hamas in the negotiations.

Iran remains a serious concern, and Biden has clearly stated his intention to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and pursue diplomacy with Tehran on a wider range of issues. This move is in line with rebuilding the shattered transatlantic cooperation, since the EU is in favor of keeping the JCPOA intact. However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has affirmed that Washington is “a long way” from rejoining the 2015 pact, which the United States quit under Trump.

Softened rhetoric

Biden has softened his rhetoric with Iran without changing America’s core demands, and Tehran has picked up on the positive signals from Washington and in turn signaled its own willingness to discuss options. Iran is suffering from the comprehensive US sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic has added more stress on the Iranian regime and people. While negotiations have resumed between the different parties, an agreement is far from being reached. For a start, Iranian and US positions on the nuclear deal are further apart than optimists would like to admit. Iran is deeply reluctant to re-engage in a deal that demands severe constraints on the country’s civilian nuclear program but stops well short of offering full sanctions relief. Despite the deadlock, the fact that they are talking is a good sign to all parties, and it will certainly ease the tensions and lead to an agreement.

The conflict in Yemen and its serious humanitarian impact may offer a particular opportunity for progress. The coalition between the KSA and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is already pursuing a diplomatic solution to the conflict, and they made an offer of a cease-fire to the Houthis, providing a strong indication that they want to bring an end to the war.

Biden has made it clear that he will stop US support for the KSA-UAE coalition, and he has taken a good step by reversing the Trump-era policy by removing the Houthi movement from the list of terrorist organizations. Biden has created momentum in the region by appointing a special envoy for Yemen and making it a priority. The administration is also working with its European counterparts to align their Yemen policies and throw their combined weight behind a diplomatic process that can finally deliver muchneeded peace to the country and potentially unlock a wider regional security dialogue. The Houthi movement has openly dismissed the proposal of a truce, however. With the Saudi proposal to end the war, Washington must now press Iran and the Houthis to commit to peace.

With regard to Libya, there is little indication that US inertia on Libya will shift under Biden. Libya remains a low-priority ever since the murder of US ambassador Christopher Stevens in Benghazi in 2012. Given that Biden was reportedly against the 2011 intervention, it seems even less likely that he will prioritize any effort to stabilize the country.

So far, US strategy in Libya is to back the UN-led peace process. However, the absence of a clear White House policy on Libya has allowed several countries to expand their influence in the country. The fact that United States has virtually no presence on the ground means that the level of leverage it can bring to bear is limited in comparison with other players.

Recently, the Biden administration has named a new envoy for Libya ahead of that country’s planned elections in December 2021, signaling the intent to elevate US efforts to end foreign military involvement there and conclude a long period of post-revolution turmoil.

US-China competition is very different in the region. China is aiming for economic expansion and collaboration, while the United States is more focused on security guarantees and cooperation. The United States has been the main security guarantor and arms supplier in the region for a very long time, and this is reflected in its military presence and arms sales.

The war in Yemen has caused great suffering for the population, especially for children, such as nine-month old Mohammed.

photo: Peter Biro

China has emerged as the top importer of oil from the nations of the Persian Gulf. Given the Gulf Corporation Council nations’ dependency on oil exports, the Gulf is increasingly tied to China economically, especially in light of the pandemic and the global economic downturn. China is also engaged with Iran through long-term investments. China has become the only outside power that has strong political and trading ties with every major country in the region. This means that the Middle East is reemerging as an arena of great-power competition. China’s growing influence in the Middle East does not yet directly threaten any vital US interests, yet China’s deepening alignment with Iran and its regional non-governmental actors pose long-term risks to US forces, partnerships, and commercial access.

Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has succeeded in forging connections with the majority of the countries in the region. The list of countries that have endorsed the BRI and committed in one form or another to partnering with China includes Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. Also, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have all hired China’s Huawei Corp. to build their 5G telecom infrastructure, in defiance of US pressure.

Even Israel is resisting US pressure to limit its commercial interactions with China. A Chinese stateowned enterprise has a 25-year operational lease on the Israeli port at Haifa. China is also investing hundreds of millions of dollars per year in the Israeli tech sector, despite the Trump administration’s monthslong charm offensive to persuade Israel to pull away.

The level of interest and influence of China in the Middle East region is not surprising, and it has been growing steadily for the last two decades. Beijing’s strategy is to achieve its objective without accruing entanglements in the various regional political struggles and crises.

While it is too early to assess the Biden administration’s policy toward the Middle East, many experts have stated that he will try to project fairness and balance. Many former US moves in the Middle East have been strategic, and therefore, it is difficult to see Biden making any dramatic policy changes.

“Yemen is a chip that Iran will use in multiple bargains, both regionally and internationally.”

These strategic US policy decisions are primarily related to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the pullout of Afghanistan, and from the region at large, and the Iranian nuclear deal.

As for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the current stand of the Biden administration does not serve US interests. The United States backed the Israeli assault on the Gaza strip, and this has created wide regional and international resentment, which will certainly cause further damage to US credibility and to Biden’s intentions of rebuilding the shattered US image. As for Hamas, Washington cannot continue to ignore the elephant in the room. By definition, a peace process must be negotiated with a party you have differences with, not the party that you already have a political and security alignment with—in this case, the Palestinian Authority. As such, Biden has not demonstrated any balance or fairness in his handling of this sensitive issue.

In regard to the Iranian nuclear deal, it is certainly a positive move for the US to go back to the JCPOA agreement. It is a win-win-win situation for US, Iran, and the region. It is essential to stay close to Iran in order to push for a softening of the Iranian regime’s behavior. This is good for the Iranian people as well, as they deserve to have a hope for a decent life. US-Iran rapprochement will also reflect positively on the region at large, it will ease regional tensions and promote stability and prosperity. A successful agreement would also reduce the foreign policy divergence between the United States and its European allies over Iran, potentially paving the way for European businesses to restart their Iranian activities.

US Air Force Lt. Col. Zachary returns from a mission at Prince Sultan Air Base in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

photo: Carl Clegg

Biden has stressed the need to end the war and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The situation in Yemen is very complicated, since Iran is a key player, and therefore, Yemen is a chip that Iran will use in multiple bargains, both regionally and internationally.

Crisis in Libya

Last, but not least, is the Libyan crisis. The United States has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with Libya, while Libya has become a theater for international disputes; Turkey-EU, Turkey-US, US-EU-Russia and other regional players as well, such as Egypt, the UAE, and KSA. It is only Turkey that is working with a genuine plan, which involves pushing to force a ceasefire, ending the civil war, and pushing forward the political process. Washington needs to seek a position on Libya that approaches Ankara’s, which would be an all-round win for the United States, Turkey, Europe and Libya. Restoring order in Libya is critical to America’s transatlantic allies and to energy supplies. The following policy recommendations would help the US to better pursue its policy objectives in the region.

First, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is important to regional stability. Isolating Hamas does not help the cause and the United States, as well as other players, have to include Hamas in any future arrangements if they are sincere about finding a fair solution that will bring peace. Second, a disciplined approach towards Iran is the right way forward. Staying close to Iran and re-integrating it into international society will go a long way toward bringing peace to many of the region’s conflicts. Iranians deserves to have a life of dignity and hope. Imposing sanctions on Iran does not help in this regard.

Third, it is very important to restrain Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Both countries are major culprits in most of the region’s conflicts, Yemen and Libya in particular. As the world learned during the administration of former US President Barack Obama, a cautious US to the Middle East does not work. Improvements can only be attained through the enactment of a US policy that is more assertive, fair, and multilateral.

Dr. Osama Kubbar is a senior advisor and strategist in the fields of international relations, national security,advanced technology and cyber security. He can be reached for comment at okabbar@yahoo.com