Foresight in Hindsight by Strelka Institute for Media, Architecture and Design

ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНАЯ ПРОГРАММА 2012/13

STRELKA

EDUCATION PROGRAMME 2012/13

RESEARCH REPORT FORESIGHT IN HINDSIGHT. A HISTORY OF PREDICTIONS

ДИРЕКТОРА Рейнир де Грааф, Лора Бэйрд ПРЕПОДАВАТЕЛЬ Василий Аузан СТУДЕНТЫ Ярослава Барменкова, дизайнер, Москва; Нэйтан де Гроот, урбанист, Дордрехт, Нидерланды; Соня Гимон, теоретик искусства и архитектуры, Москва; Надежда Малафеева, архитектор, Барнаул; Ольга Метальникова, географ, Москва; Таисия Осипова, архитектор, Томилино; Александра Симонова, специалист по связям с общественностью, Серпухов; Линдси Харкема, архитектор, Нью-Йорк, США; Александр Шабалдин, экономист, Новосибирск ЭКСПЕРТЫ-КОНСУЛЬТАНТЫ Александр Алексеев, географ; Александр Аузан, экономист; Марк Блейк, автор и консультант по научной коммуникации; Александр Бобров, МГУ; Сергей Бобылев, МГУ; Виктор Вахштайн, социолог; Дмитрий Виленский, художник, основатель «Что делать?»; Петар Вранич, основатель Collective for Systematic City Devlopment; Всеволод Гаврилов, руководитель Отдела по проектам в сфере энергосберегающего бизнеса, Сбербанк; Джеймс Гарри, руководитель программы Sustainable Edinburgh 2020; Василий Гатов, RIA Media Lab; Леонид Григорьев, Аналитический центр при Правительстве РФ; Борис Гройс, искусствовед; Даниил Давыдов, диггер; Ангелина Давыдова, журналист; Анна Данишевская, Booz & Co.; Дмитрий Девятериков, Booz & Co.; Ольга Добровидова, журналист; Татьяна Житенко, эксперт по вопросам энергетики; Игорь Башманов, генеральный директор Центра по эффективному использованию энергии; Эдвард Кинг, главный редактор rtcc.org; Ярослав Ковальчук, архитектор и урбанист; Алексей Кокорин, руководитель программы «Климат и Энергетика», WWF России; Андрей Конопляник, советник генерального директора, Газпром; Станислав Корнеев, диггер; Геннадий Крюков, психолог; Олег Кулик, художник; Анастасия Лаукканен, журналист; Алексей Левинсон, социолог, Левада-Центр; Крис Линтотт, председатель Citizen Science Alliance,

Оксфордский университет; Федор Лукьянов, главный редактор, «Россия в глобальной политике»; Станислав Львовский, журналист; Светлана Маслова, ДСК (Домостроительный комбинат); Данила Медведев, футуролог; Наталия Мельникова, фотограф; Максимилиан Мосешвили, архитектор; Илья ОсколковЦенципер, предприниматель; Александра Попова, экскурсовод, Бункер-42; Борис Порфирьев, Институт народохозяйственного прогнозирования, РАН; Дэвид Робсон, глава Отдела прогнозирования в энергетике, Правительство Шотландии; Денис Ромодин, историк архитектуры; Стефан Роулер, экономист; Георгий Сатаров, социолог; Александра Ставинская, Ассоциация независимых исследовательских центров, МГУ; Алекс Карл Стренг, Министерство экологии, устойчивого развития и энергетики, Франция; Алекс Сухаревский, McKinsey & Co.; Алексей Торгашев, журналист; Александр Туркот, IT инвестор и предприниматель; Алексей Турчин, футуролог; Адриан Форти, историк архитектуры, Бартлетт; Константин Фрумкин, журналист и культуролог; Оуэн Хатерли, журналист и писатель; Марина Хрусталева, историк архитектуры; Алексей Шакурин, Booz & Co.; Андрей Шмаров, социолог и предприниматель; Наталья Шуляр, главный редактор журнала InfoTek; Михаил Юлькин, Российский Союз промышленников и предпринимателей

CO-DIRECTORS Reinier de Graaf, Laura Baird TUTOR Vasily Auzan STUDENTS Yaroslava Barmenkova, designer, Moscow; Nathan de Groot, urbanist, Dordrecht, the Netherlands; Sonya Guimon, theorist of art and architecture, Moscow; Lindsay Harkema, architect, New York, USA; Nadezhda Malafeeva, architect, Barnaul; Olga Metalnikova, geographer, Moscow; Taisia Osipova, architect, Tomilino; Alexander Shabaldin, economist, Novosibirsk; Alexandra Simonova, media relations spеcialist, Serpukhov EXTERNAL EXPERTS Alexander Alexeev, geographer; Alexander Auzan, economist; Igor Bashmanov, CEO, Center for Effective Energy Use; Mark Blake, author and science communication consultant; Alexander Bobrov, MSU; Sergey Bobylev, MSU; Anna Danishevskaya, Booz & Co.; Angelina Davidova, journalist; Daniil Davidov, digger; Dmitry Devyaterikov, Booz & Co.; Olga Dobrovidova, journalist; Adrian Forty, architectural historian, Bartlett; Konstantin Frumkin, journalist and culture expert; James Garry, head of Sustainable Edinburgh 2020 programme; Vasily Gatov, Media Lab, RIA Novosti; Vsevolod Gavrilov, head of Projects in Energy Saving Business Unit, Sberbank; Leonid Grigoryev, the analytical center under the Government of the RUssian Federation; Boris Groys, art critic; Owen Hatherley, journalist and author; Anastasia Laukkanen, journalist; Alexey Levinson, sociologist, Levada Center; Cris Lintott, chair of Citizen Science Alliance, Oxford University; Fedor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief, «Russia in Global Politics»; Stanislav Lvovsky, journalist; Marina Khrustaleva, architectural historian; Edward King, chief editor, rtcc.org; Alexey Kokorin, head of Climate and Energy Programme, WWF Russia; Andrey Konoplyanik, Advisor to General Director, Gazprom; Stanislav Korneev, digger;

Yaroslav Kovalchuk, architect and urbanist; Gennady Kryukov, physiologist; Oleg Kulik, artist; Danila Medvedev, futurologist; Svetlana Maslova, DSK (House Construction Factory); Natalia Melnikova, photographer; Maximilian Moshiashvili, architect; Ilya OskolkovTsentsiper, media entrepreneur; Alexandra Popova, tour guide, Stalin’s Bunker; Boris Porfiryev, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences; David Robson, head of Foresight in Energy, Government of Scotland; Denis Romodin, architecture historian; Georgy Satarov, sociologist; Alexey Shakurin, Booz & Co.; Andrey Shmarov, sociologist and entrepreneur; Natalia Shulyar, chief editor, InforTek magazine; Alexandra Stavinskaya, Association for Independent Research Centers, MSU; Rouhler Stephane, economist; Alex Karl Strang, French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, and Energy; Alex Sukharevsky, McKinsey & Co.; Alexey Torgashev, journalist; Alexey Turchin, futurologist; Alexander Turkot, IT investor and entrepreneur; Michael Yulkin, Russian Union for Industrialists and Entrepreneurs; Victor Vachstain, sociologist; Dmitry Vilensky, artist, «What to do?» project; Petar Vranic, urban planner, Stokholm;Tatiana Zhitenko, energy expert;

ПРОШЛОЕ БУДУЩЕГО: КРИТИЧЕСКАЯ ИСТОРИЯ ПРЕДСКАЗАНИЙ И ПРОГНОЗОВ На протяжении истории человечество мечтало «заглянуть» в будущее: от библейских пророчеств до Маркса; от человека на Луне до «Космической Одиссеи» Кубрика; от спекулятивных гипотез об изменении климата до экспертных оценок будущего глобальной экономики. Мы сталкиваемся с предсказаниями на каждом шагу. Научный прогресс стал своего рода катализатором прогнозирования: появилась возможность бесконечного моделирования последствий сегодняшних решений. На фондовой бирже компьютерные алгоритмы работают быстрее и лучше биржевых маклеров, а медицина превратила наше здоровье в «генетический удел». И все же, несмотря на успехи науки, многие серьезные исторические изменения редко поддаются научным расчетам и часто оказываются результатом непредсказуемого стечения обстоятельств. Быть может, в этом и заключается истинная суть предсказаний, играющих роль мифических рычагов рационального, на первый взгляд, процесса модернизации. Может, модернизация — это ни что иное, как способность человека поверить в свои собственные прогнозы, даже если верность этих прогнозов под вопросом. Россия — не исключение: пятилетки определяли будущее нации на протяжении более 70 лет. Многое в сегодняшней России можно растолковать как «сбывшееся предсказание» — результат прошлых намерений направить страну на курс, который невозможно было бы изменить. Эти намерения до сих пор оказывают на нее влияние. Россия сегодня кажется застрявшей между идеологиями, между неусвоенным прошлым и (пока) неопределенным будущим. Исчезнет ли Россия? (Таисия) О чем думают люди, пишущие ее историю? (Ольга) Насколько своеобразна Россия, с ее бурной историей и необъятной территорией, в таких политически чувствительных вопросах, как изменение климата и энергетика? (Надежда) Сможет ли Россия объективно относиться к миру вне контекста нефти и газа? (Александр) Что оставили после себя советские технологии в их стремлении захватить одновременно человечество, землю

FORESIGHT IN HINDSIGHT: A HISTORY OF PREDICTIONS Throughout history, mankind has exhibited a desire to ‘know’ the future: from biblical prophecies to Marx’s dialectic course of history; from Kennedy’s man on the moon to Kubrick’s Space Odyssey; from speculative assumptions about the effects of climate change to assessments about the future of the global economy… predictions manifest in many forms. The advance of science and technology has proven a further catalyst: with its ability to endlessly simulate the future consequences of present decisions, cyberspace has given the future a whole new dimension. In the stock market algorithms outperform human traders; medical science has turned our own health into a genetic fate… However, despite the benefits of scientific progress, history’s most radical changes are rarely the result of scientific calculation. More often than not, they are the product of a leap of faith… and maybe there lies the essence and value of predictions: as the ultimately mythical drivers of the supposedly rational process of modernization. Perhaps modernization is nothing other than man’s ability to believe his own predictions, even when the validity of these predictions remains questionable… Russia is no exception: five year plans ‘shaped’ the future of the nation for over 70 years. Much of Russia as we know it today can be interpreted as a ‘lived prediction’ – the result of a past intention to set the country on an inevitable course – which, true or false, continues to affect it until today. Today’s Russia seems locked in a kind of “inter-ideological state”, caught between an undigested past and an (as of yet) undefined future. Will Russia disappear? (Taisia) What are the views of its writers? (Olga) How different is Russia, given its alternate history and its vast territory, in terms of political issues, such as climate change and energy? (Nadezhda) Can Russia ever be objective about a world beyond oil and gas? (Alexander) What is the real legacy of the Soviet technology and its desire to simultaneously conquer man, earth and space? (Yaroslava & Alexandra) How much of Russia’s history is still underground, hidden from the global consciousness? (Nathan) Can enhanced knowledge about their ideological mission endow ‘architectural crimes’ with a new lease of life? (Sonya) What will be the Future of Protest and Public Space…? (Lindsay)

и космос? (Ярослава и Александра) Какая часть российской истории до сих пор неизвестна и скрыта от мирового сознания? (Натан) Может ли осознание идеологического назначения зданий, которые мы считаем «архитектурными преступлениями», дать им право на новую жизнь? (Соня) Каково будущее протеста и общественного пространства? (Линдси) Традиционные учебные дисциплины едва ли могут помочь сформировать повестку будущего. Большинство проблем, стоящих перед страной, не попадают под категории науки, религии, политики, технологии или городского развития, и разрешить их силами одной дисциплины невозможно. Посредством исторического анализа прогнозов, независимо от их источника, мы надеемся выяснить глубинную сущность стоящих перед Россией задач и найти ответы на некоторые самые актуальные вопросы. Проект студии: сайт Foresight in Hindsight (c. 12–19) Индивидуальные проекты: «Исчезнет ли Россия?» (Таисия Осипова, с. 20–29), «Оракул писателей» (Ольга Метальникова, с. 30–41), «Внутри российского энергетического дискурса» (Александр Шабалдин, с. 42–51), «L’exception Russe» (Надежда Малафеева, с. 52–61), «Игра в бога» (Ярослава Барменкова, с. 62–73), «Мечты на орбите» (Александра Симонова, с. 74–83), «Под землей» (Нэйтан де Гроот, с. 84–93), «Обживая пропаганду» (Соня Гимон, с. 94–103), «Сохранение протеста» (Линдси Харкема, с. 104–115).

Conventional disciplines have little to offer in terms of shaping a future agenda. Most challenges facing the country elude the confines of science, religion, politics, technology, urban planning — none seem equipped to offer a solution on their own. Through an inquiry into the history of predictions, irrespective of their source, we hope to combine insights on all facets of Russia’s challenges and in passing find answers to some of its most pressing questions… Studio project: The Foresight in Hindsight Website (p. 12–19) Individual projects: Will Russia Disappear? (Taisia Osipova, p. 20–29), Oracle in Writing (Olga Metalnikova, p. 30–41), Inside Russia’s Energy Narratives (Alexander Shabaldin, p. 42–51), L’exception Russe (Nadezhda Malafeeva, p. 52–61), Playing God (Yaroslava Barmenkova, p. 62–73), Imagination in Orbit (Alexandra Simonova, p. 74–83), Underground (Nathan de Groot, p. 84–93), Inhabiting Propaganda (Sonya Guimon, p. 94–103), Preserving Protest (Lindsay Harkema, p. 104–115).

This book is designed for personal, non-commercial use. YouÂ must not use it in any other way, and, except as permitted under applicable law, you must not copy, translate, publish, licence or sellÂ the book without our consent.

FORESIGHT IN HINDSIGHT A H I S TO R Y O F P R E D I C T I O N S

A pub l i c at i o n o f t h e 2 0 1 3 Foresight In Hindsight theme of the Strelk a I nstitute for M edia, Arc hitec t ure, and D es ign.

Throughout history, mankind has exhibited a desire to ‘know’ the future: from biblical prophecies to Marx’s dialectic course of history; from Kennedy’s man on the moon to Kubrick’s Space Odyssey; from speculative assumptions about the effects of climate change to assessments about the future of the global economy… predictions manifest in many forms. The advance of science and technology has proven a further catalyst: with its ability to endlessly simulate the future consequences of present decisions, cyberspace has given the future a whole new dimension. In the stock market algorithms outperform human traders; medical science has turned our own health into a genetic fate… However, despite the benefits of scientific progress, history’s most radical changes are rarely the result of scientific calculation. More often than not, they are the product of a leap of faith… and maybe there lies the essence and value of predictions: as the ultimately mythical drivers of the supposedly rational process of modernization. Perhaps modernization is nothing other than man’s ability to believe his own predictions, even when the validity of these predictions remains questionable… Russia is no exception: five year plans ‘shaped’ the future of the nation for over 70 years. Much of Russia as we know it today can be interpreted as a ‘lived prediction’ – the result of a past intention to set the country on an inevitable course – which, true or false, continues to affect it until today. Today’s Russia seems locked in a kind of “inter-ideological state”, caught between an undigested past and an (as of yet) undefined future. Will Russia Disappear? (Tasia) What are the views of its writers? (Olga) How different is Russia, given its alternate history and its vast territory, in terms of political issues, such as climate change and energy? (Nadya) Can Russia ever be objective about a world beyond oil and gas? (Alexander) What is the real legacy of Soviet technology and its desire to simultaneously conquer man, earth and space? (Yaroslava & Alexandra) How much of Russia’s history is still underground, hidden from the global consciousness? (Nathan) Can enhanced knowledge about their ideological mission endow ‘architectural crimes’ with a new lease of life? (Sonya) What will be the Future of Protest and Public Space…? (Lindsay) Conventional disciplines have little to offer in terms of shaping a future agenda. Most challenges facing the country elude the confines of science, religion, politics, technology, urban planning – none seem equipped of offer a solution on their own. Through an inquiry into the history of predictions, irrespective of their source, we hope to combine insights on all facets of Russia’s challenges and in passing find answers to some of its most pressing questions…

“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable” — Albert Einstein, an interview given to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (1934)

THE FORESIGHT IN HINDSIGHT WEBSITE

The Foresight in Hindsight website is an attempt to create a collective history of the future. It is an ongoing database of ideas, methods, actions and visions from the past which are all in some way predictions. What is a prediction? To predict is to envision a future. This can be envisaged in many forms. Direct visions of the future can be gathered from sources such as science fiction literature or psychic readings. However, perhaps even more interesting are indirect predictions such as those interpreted from scientific research, cultural movements, or politically actions. These predict the future by responding to it in the present. For example, a political protest, in its rejection of a perceived future, demonstrates a critical foresight. In order to understand a full collective history, forms of predictions include but are not limited to: visionary statements, literature, films, speeches, science fiction, visual projects, pictures, news articles, postcards, advertisements, illustrations, poetry, interviews, opinions, manifestos, conceptual projects, utopias, dystopias, historical events, protests, revolutions, forecasts, architecture, master plans, philosophy, futurology, countercultural movements and music. By collecting and interpreting past-predictions, a â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;foresight in hindsightâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; of how the future is foretold. Whether these predictions are true or false,patterns, trends and paradigms derived from examining a collection of snapshots of the future may be the best way to read history. The significance of the database The website is created with the aim of continued use after the Strelka year ends. By providing a broad range of results from the most obvious to the most obscure predictions related to any topic searched, an empirical survey is conducted of an inherently speculative subject. As predictions do not share consistent structures and may not have an obvious storyline behind them, our data is highly subjective. While some predictions are presented verbatim, some are rethought and reinterpreted in the process of filling out its entry into the database. To give consistency, each prediction is entered in the same objective format of statistics about the time, author, field, subject, and outcome. The eventual aim is to find patterns across subjects, fields and time periods - to map human intution, innovation and imagination. http://foresightinhindsight.com/

TAG LIST STATISTICS LOG IN / SIGN UP

WHAT WAS THE FUTURE OF... Russia

OUR METHODOLOGY FORESIGHT@INFO.COM

Splash page with ‘predictions seach engine’ and topics/hashtag ticker

THE FORESIGHT IN HINDSIGHT WEBSITE

Predictions entry form

WHAT WAS THE FUTURE OF... The World

PREDICTION ENTRY FORM PREDICTION

AUTHOR

MADE

EXPECTED

The world would end by a flood starting in London

London astrologers

1524

1525

Thomas Müntzer

1524

2150

Michael Stifel

1520

1533

Melchior Hoffman

1510

1533

Pierre d’Ailly

1400

1555

Michael Servetus

1533

1585

Martin Luther

Profession

1400

1600

Christopher Columbus

1501

1656

Christopher Columbus

1505

1658

William Aspinwall 1673

1673

will be your headline Title or1525 Essential would Quotation mark the beginningThis of prediction the Millennium

Hash Tags (comma separated)

Key words which describe your prediction

Judgement begin at Provide 8:00am Oct 19 1533the headline context to understand Description (up toDay 150would words) Prediction made 1500

Prediction expected 1500

Further evidence or additional information Read more 6845 years of human history had already passed, and the end of the world would be in the 7000th year

3000

Outcome True

Christ’s Second Coming to u in year 1533 in Strasbourg. 144,000 people would be saved, the rest consumed by fire

2000

False

Unknown

Subject Planet Field Prophecy Type

The Devil’s reign in this world began in 325 AD, at the Council of Nicea, and will last for 1260 years, thus ending in 1585 Name of person or organisation Authors The world would occur no later than 1600

Country of Origin

of Author

Country ofworld prediction The would end in 1656

Country the prediction was made for

Year(s) (prediction made)

1900

1900 and would to 1900 world wasexpected) created in 5343 BCE, last 7000 Year(s)The (prediction years. The end will come in 1658 True False Unknown Outcome The Millennium would begin by this year (1673) Forecast Foresight Prophecy Type Planet

Country of origin

Economy

Culture

Subject The end of the world would occur in either 1705 or 1706 Prophecy Arts Political Method

Technology

Businesss

Humanity

Camisard Science prophets

1685

Please add more than one image (provoking, compelling, copyright free) if needed or Images Plus 5 caption A comet would destroy the earthrelevant. on Apr 1719 Jacob Bernoulli 1685

1705 1706 1719

Country of prediction The end would occur between 1700 and 1734 Add File Author’s Profession

Cardinal Nicholas 1440 of Cusa

17001734

Emanuel Swedenborg

1750

1757

According to Revelation 12:14 between the years 1058–1836, Rev. John Wesley 1748 Christ should come Reference to original source of prediction (book, movie ect.) Original Source

1836

Add link to original article(s) The Rapture will take place in 1936 Weblink

Video

Add embedded video code

The Last Judgement will occur in the spiritual world in 1757

Herbert W. Armstrong

1789

1936

The world to an end shall come, In eighteen hundred and Add eighty one

Mother Shipton

1756

1881

Halley’s Comet will impregnate atmosphere and possibly snuff

Camille

1910

Each prediction is entered using the above form. It is only accessible to site administrators.

Search Page

WHAT WAS THE FUTURE OF...

PREDICTION

AUTHOR

MADE

EXPECTED

The world would end by a flood starting in London

London astrologers

1524

1525

1525 would mark the beginning of the Millennium

Thomas Müntzer

1524

2150

Judgement Day would begin at 8:00am Oct 19 1533

Michael Stifel

1520

1533

Christ’s Second Coming to u in year 1533 in Strasbourg. 144,000 people would be saved, the rest consumed by fire

Melchior Hoffman

1510

1533

6845 years of human history had already passed, and the end of the world would be in the 7000th year

Pierre d’Ailly

1400

1555

The Devil’s reign in this world began in 325 AD, at the Council of Nicea, and will last for 1260 years, thus ending in 1585

Michael Servetus

1533

1585

The world would occur no later than 1600

Martin Luther

1400

1600

The world would end in 1656

Christopher Columbus

1501

1656

The world was created in 5343 BCE, and would last 7000 years. The end will come in 1658

Christopher Columbus

1505

1658

Prophecy Type

The Millennium would begin by this year (1673)

William Aspinwall 1673

1673

The end of the world would occur in either 1705 or 1706

Camisard prophets

1685

1705 1706

A comet would destroy the earth on Apr 5 1719

Jacob Bernoulli

1685

1719

The end would occur between 1700 and 1734

Cardinal Nicholas 1440 of Cusa

17001734

The Last Judgement will occur in the spiritual world in 1757

Emanuel Swedenborg

1750

1757

According to Revelation 12:14 between the years 1058–1836, Christ should come

Rev. John Wesley 1748

1836

The Rapture will take place in 1936

Herbert W. Armstrong

1789

1936

The world to an end shall come, In eighteen hundred and eighty one

Mother Shipton

1756

1881

Halley’s Comet will impregnate atmosphere and possibly snuff

Camille

1910

The World

Prediction made 1500

2000

Prediction expected 1500

3000

Outcome True

False

Unknown

Subject Planet Field

Country of origin

Country of prediction

Author’s Profession

Prediction searches can be narrowed using to various categories.

Each prediction in the list is shown as a preview of further information and can be ordered alphabetically, by author and by year of prediction and expected outcome.

THE FORESIGHT IN HINDSIGHT WEBSITE

WHAT WAS THE FUTURE OF... Transport

HORSE-DRAWN CARRIAGES WILL RUN UNDER THE ENGLISH CHANNEL AUTHOR

Albert Mathieu-Favier, mining engineer

ORIGINAL SOURCE

Whiteside, Thomas (1962). The Tunnel under the Channel. Rupert Hart-Davis.

Prediction made 1802

Prediction expected

Outcome True

False

Unknown

Subject Technology Field Science Type Forecast Country of origin France

In 1802, French mining engineer Albert Mathieu-Favier put forward the first ever design for a cross-Channel fixed link based on the principle of a bored two-level tunnel: the top one, paved and lit by oil lamps, to be used by horse-drawn stagecoaches; the bottom one would be used for groundwater flows.

Authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Profession

FURTHER INFORMATION

Engineer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Tunnel

WHAT WAS THE FUTURE OF...

CARS WILL RUN ON JET ENGINES AUTHOR

Car

General Motors

ORIGINAL SOURCE

GM Firebird 2 - Traffic Fantasy of 1976

Prediction made 1956

Prediction expected 1976 Outcome True

False

Unknown

Subject Technology Field Science Type Forecast

General Motors had done research on feasibility of gas turbine engines in cars as early as the 1930s. It wasn't until the early 1950s that they began building an actual engine, with Emmett Conklin leading the project.

Country of origin USA

FURTHER INFORMATION

Authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Profession

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Firebird#Firebird_II

Motor company

WILL RUSSIA DISAPPEAR?

Former pioneer camp in Yaroslavskaya oblast. The old building is ruined, but children playground still remains in the forest

Throughout history, Russia has lived through a number of significant upheavals. Every catastrophe contributed to the overall situation and crises often happened one after another with no time in between for recovery, which undermined the country’s potential to grow. In Russia, it is typical that strategic changes, even with intention for the best, were made by radical methods and therefore today an accumulative effect of systematic destruction of the past has lead the state to a razor edge for the future.

This can be explained if we look at Russia’s demography. repressions, economic crises became tangible in society. Russia’s population is inevitably decreasing, which affects all other spheres of life. Furthermore, the geopolitical situation is not stable, social networks and state institutions do not maintain human capital growth, economics based on the branch production determine the state of Russia both within the world context and inside the country. Today, Russia is going through a critical phase in a number of aspects that could be a reason to predict the future in fatal perspective, even a total decline of the country. As Leo Tolstoy argued, war never starts because of multiple factors as an outcome of their simultaneous combination.

“...EACH SEPARATE CAUSE OR WHOLE SERIES OF CAUSES APPEARS TO US EQUALLY VALID...” “To us, their descendants, who are not historians and are not carried away by the process of research and can therefore regard the event with unclouded common sense, an incalculable number of causes present themselves. The deeper we delve in search of these causes the more impotence- apart from the separate cause or whole series of causes appears to us equally valid in itself and equally cooperation of all the other coincident causes - to occasion the event”1

Thus, the future of Russia is basically a mosaic currently being built in dependence on decisions made by different stakeholders at this particular moment. The gradual process of development with all its complexity could be

do people think when it comes to the future of the country, the population and their national identity? Social media headlines hit with provocative and radical statements. Russia will be cut in pieces, Russia will lose its national identity, Russia will fall apart under the threat of a nuclear war... Will Russia disappear? HISTORICAL OVERVIEW The world has witnessed how other countries already disappeared from the Earth map. Both giant, powerful and small, unnoticeable states could fall into a total decay due to a number of reasons. What happened exactly to these countries? And how can Russia learn from this? The Ottoman Empire was one of the most powerful history of development, it ceased to exist because of internal economic and social crisis which lead to quite unsuccessful participation in WWII and as a result the country had lost the political power. In 1922, Turkey announced its independence and replaced the Ottoman Empire on the world map. Another example is the Empire of Yugoslavia, which existed for a bit more than 70 years and initially had very ambitious aspirations. This united multicultural country was founded by virtue of Tito’s enthusiasm, who kept the spirit of a single state on a high level during his whole

ROMAN EMPIRE, 27 BC -1453

OTTOMAN EMPIRE 1299-1922

1300

1739

1920

1922

THE UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS, 1922-1991

SIBERIAN STATE

YUGOSLAVIA 1918-1992

1918

25 June 1991

March 3 1992

April 28 1992

consecutive internal national issues had ruined the entire state structure and the country was divided in pieces. There is a lot more of countries in the world which had already came to their end of days. Roman Empire, 27 BC -1453, Empire, 1867-1918, The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, 1922-1991, Czechoslovakia, 1918-1992, Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, 1918-1992, German Democratic Republic (GDR), 1949-1990 and many others, which advocates for the fact that countries disappear sometimes due to various reasons. RUSSIA’S STRUGGLES TODAY There are several ongoing trends of slow destruction processes becoming visible. For example, there is a tendency to abandon territories (cities, villages, and building slots) in Russia. People could leave their cities due to different reasons: it could be Chirch of St. John the Baptist in Tverskaya oblast. Built in1779, closed in 1935

U,Kolendo and many others used to be industrial cities for coal extraction), it could be suffering with non-survivable urban diseases (Pripyat was nuclear polluted), natural hazards (Neftegorsk was almost ruined by an earthquake), abandoned military settlements (Alykel was build for military pilots as a secret base, but apparently was never used) or it could be a strategic decision to change a function of a place (Nizhneyansk has lost its function as a port). Abandoned territories on one hand stay empty and lifeless, but on another hand new life starts to grow here: marginal areas welcome ufologists, diggers, stalkers who create another environment and another feeling of the place which physically does not cease to exist, but becomes different, changed to another place.

Source:http://f.otzyv.ru/f/11/12/92763/11442/18101223363913.jpg

livable infrastructure and lack of development potential or economic decay which apparently happens today in Tverskaya, Ivanovskaya, Novgorodskaya, Vologodskaya, Archangelskaya better living or do their best to give children a chance to move away. In this discourse, the question “Will Russia disappear?” implies by “disappearance” an idea of the country’s destructive change, notably loss of the state and cultural identity as a result of existential struggles that the country experiences today. Before looking at Russia’s territory and its population, the

Abandoned village in Karelia Source:http://occupacii-karelii.net/obshestvo/103-unichtozhennye-derevni.html

CULTURE “The collection of industrial, social and spiritual achievements of people”.2

ideological direction of the national development is a large struggle of cultural consistence in Russia. The President of Russia Vladimir Putin has declared patriotism as the main value for cultural education and continuity of generations in the country, and according to Levada Center’s social survey, thinking still remains and a part of society still considers that there is no consistent ideology for future development in the country. This idea is precisely expressed by Nikolay Petrov: “Meanwhile the social sphere will continue to decline as a

Abandoned pensionate in Kalyazin Source:http://tadahii.ru/?p=1658

Birth rate Death rate

50 1 9 -1 9 55 55 1 9 -1 9 60 60 1 9 -1 9 65 65 1 9 -1 9 70 70 1 9 -1 9 75 75 1 9 -1 9 80 80 1 9 -1 9 85 85 1 9 -1 9 90 90 1 9 -1 9 95 95 2 0 -2 0 00 00 2 0 -2 0 05 05 2 0 -2 0 10 10 2 0 -2 0 15 15 2 0 -2 0 20 20 2 0 -2 0 25 25 2 0 -2 0 30 30 2 0 -2 0 35 35 2 0 -2 0 40 40 2 0 -2 0 45 45 2 0 -2 0 50 50 2 0 -2 0 55 55 2 0 -2 0 60 60 2 0 -2 0 65 65 2 0 -2 0 70 70 2 0 -2 0 75 75 2 0 -2 0 80 80 2 0 -2 0 85 85 2 0 -2 0 90 90 2 0 -2 0 95 95 -2 10 0

Birthrates v. Death rate. Projected demographics by the UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs World Population, 2010

Russian population growth dynamics by the Russian Federal Statistics Service, 2013

1 billion + 100 million + 50 million + 25 million + 10 million + 1 million + < 1 million

entrepreneurial groups from Russia. There is no nationally shared ideology; instead there is an ideological mix that embraces elements borrowed from different époques and concepts including imperial and Soviet grandeur, ‘energy superpower’, a separate civilization etc”.3 Religion has its power in Russia as a part of national ideology, but historically it is deeply connected to political strategy. This produces a double-natured? perception of the religion as an institution. Starting from development of Russian people, which is visible within elements of national traditions.

Another indicator of cultural development could be the imaginative expression of people’s moods: theater, arts, cinematography. During Soviet times, lots of ideas and future visions were developed, including new cities, science, environment, and space. For example, there is thorns to the stars”, “The Andromeda Nebula”, “Aelita” and many others, giving a vision of how people should and more likely will live in coming times. Soviet dreams were about equality and prosperity for everyone, about life in harmony with ecological environment, about high morality and humanitarian development of future generations. Such ambitious and bright plans for future could tell a lot about the general strategy for the state and explaining the overall theory of communist ideals.

result of a protracted deterioration of the quality of health

World population map by US Census Bureau historical estimates, 2010

When the USSR collapsed, however, the need to continue the development of imaginary brave new worlds disappeared and

150000

145000

this could happen because of the deep developmental crisis following up the shift within the state structure.

140000

135000

130000 MIGRATION LEVEL Low

125000

Medium

15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30 20 31

High

< World migration map. The deeper the tone, the higher the level of immigration. by RIA Novosti, 2013

national and cultural identity. In fact, this is already happening on numerous holidays and military parades, emphasizing a collective spirit that is rooted in the past. What is next? What will next generation know about current state? Will it overcome crises and how?

Forecasts of the Russian population growth depending on the level of migration by the Federal State Statistics Service, 201216

The role of education could be leading when it comes to continuity of cultural traditions over generations. Russia traditionally has a troublesome relation to intellectuals that often live in exile or under some form of political threat. Nations are united by a shared past and/or shared ideas of the future. If Russia does not have a shared vision for the

POPULATION After 1992, the demographic situation in Russia has dramatically changed towards critical dynamics of birth rate versus death rate. This phenomenon has even been coined population in Russia by 2100 which is correlated with a number of internal struggles happening in the country today. Shortage of the population taken as an inevitable process could Emmanuel Todd, sociologist, claimed that the rising infant death rates in USSR would become a “death sentence for the system”.4 In this way Todd predicted the fall of the biggest country in the world with reference to a purely demographic trend. Analysis of the demo¬graphic trends in the world The notion “demography” was coined by A.Giyar in 1855 to explain combination of social and analytical approach to population was about 1 billion people. Today, the demographic situation of the world has completely changed, since the planet accommodates 7 billion people, whilea raise to 9 billion is expected for 2050. According to the theory of demographic shift, processes of rapid population growth started because of the industrial development of European countries in the beginning of XIXth century. The notion of “demographic shift” basically implies a change of procreation type?? within the community. <

National consistance of Russia, 2012 22,6% of population with nationalities other from Russian

National consistance of Russia, 2025 +12,4% of immigrants pdericted by the Russian Federal Statistics Service, 2013

modern industrial enterprises. The living standards became higher because of the development of medicine, technologies and urban infrastructure, rural population moved to the cities. As a result, the death rate became much lower while the birthrate remained to be the same or slightly lower. Before the industrial development type of reproduction in Europe was primitive (a lot of kids in one family and a high death rate). But then the model changed towards having several kids which are healthy enough to continue procreation. Population growth in Europe was not dramatic and did not the industrial development of Europe triggered population growth in colonized countries where it had got very high temps. Overpopulation became a reason of huge migration

movements: from middle Asia people moved to America and Oceania. Second demographic shift is a change of reproduction type to a family with one kid and an age of mother up to 30 years. This produces generally lower birthrate and ageing of population. Pioneers of this shift were countries of Northern and Western Europe. This kind of demographic population which is why there was another wave of migration from growing Middle East to Western and Northern Europe. China, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Japan have already

should be maintained and self-colonized by the state not less than slots with high density. The picture of vast and unsettled Russian area looks quite different within the world trends of territorial reclaiming. Alexander Solzhenitsyn said, «It’s hard to imagine that overloaded planet will further and further tolerate neglected unreclaimed Russian spaces».6 Itis not a secret that Russia is being given a purely raw-exports role within the global trade context. According to experts, 5% of Russia’s income comes from labor, 20% - capital and 75% natural-resource rents.7 In the near future, Russia’s main source of income may literally run dry.

But today the population still continues to grow in Africa shift. Some countries of the Middle East continue to grow, but at slower rates. By the middle of the century, there are expected 5 mln?? people only in the Central Asia. That means there is a high potential for appearance of another migration wave from the Central Asia and Africa to accessible countries of the world and one of them could be Russia due to its demographic decline.

Since national consistence of Russia is highly diverse, mapping nations in Russia could be a geographical prototype of a potential ‘natural’ dissolution of the country. But the borders of administrative regions do not match with the borders of nationalities. Objectively, there are no regions with purely one national population, so the chances for separation of the country by national criteria

According to the Federal Migration Service and the “Concept of the State Migration Politics of the Russian Federation by the year 2025”5, the country needs migrants

grounded possibility for the most numerous and solid nationalities of Russia (byryaty, yakuty and mordva) to declare their independence if they consider to

external forces, Federal powers initiate programs for self healthcare propaganda, such as the harm of alcohol and tobacco. Rising the level of social awareness of pernicious habits, the State raises the potential of national health and respectively the birthrates. There is a number of other social programs which take place but do not have of live. Among those programs are related to housing development and renovation, education and training and of course medical services development. Apparently the problem of social capital development still remains unresolved since the demographic statistics indicate high temps of population shrinking, ageing of population, high infant death rates, and high level of criminal activities. TERRITORY The largest country in the world has an extremely diverse geographical structure on its more than 17 mln square km area. Russia lasts for 4000 km from North to South and 10000 from East to West and on its vast territory you

and fauna. Russia borders with 18 other countries, among which are Belorussia, Finland, Japan and USA. A large part of the area has never been fully settled, but in recent decades, due to the demographic decline, Russian territory is getting even less populated. Most part of the country is not suitable for agricultural development; at some places both climatic and geographic conditions are not good for living as well. In this way, the vast territory of Russia is at the same time its pride and its existential struggle: inhabited area

“...DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS OR A TOTAL DECAY...” be separated rather than to be a part of a declining country. This had already had a precedent with Tatarstan, Kazakhstan, Ichkeria. Moreover, the separation of a Siberian state was predicted to get independence under the USA protectorship. Vladimir Kiselev claims that “Siberia must get rid of the Moscow yoke. It will not be able to become an independent state. The only way for the territory to prosper in the future is to become a part of the US. The US has successful experience in obtaining independence. After the referendum, Siberia will become a part of the territory of the United States, just like California and Alaska are, even though they were Russian colonies in the 19th century”.8 A risk of external invasion still remains a possible scenario. Nikolay Berdyaev foresaw Russia being invaded by China and the USA: “…If the war will continue, then Russia, which is no longer a subject, but an object, being an arena for the clash of nations, will continue to decay, and this decay will go too far by the day of the war ending. Dark destructive forces, killing our country, base all their hopes on the idea of a terrible global cataclysm which will happen in future and destroy the basics of Christian culture. This forces speculate on the World War and their expectations are not so wrong. The whole Europe will face an internal explosion and disaster such as

ours. Life of European nations will be thrown back to the elementary, it is threatened by barbarization. And then the judgment will come from Asia. On the ashes of the old Christian Europe, thinned, shocked to the very basics by its own barbarian chaotic elements, there will be another, alien for us race, with another faith, with unfamiliar to us civilization. As opposed to this perspective, the entire World War is just a family quarrel. Now as a result of World War to win, really win can only extreme East, Japan and China, the race which is not exhausted itself, and also the extreme West, America. After the weakening and corruption of Europe and Russia there will rein China and between each other. Then will come true ChineseAmerican realm of equality, in which any rises and ascents will be impossible”.9 CONCEPTS OF DEVELOPMENT To create a map of possible decisions for the future of Russia let us take the demographic decline, territorial crisis and cultural vagueness as a core of the problem when combined all together. Orienting on positive future perspective, let us explore what should/can be done to prevent Russia’s potential disappearance. POPULATION INCREASE Russian population today is 143.3 million people, density 8.4 person per square km.10 Population density along with the population growth is not equal within the entire territory: thus, in several regions of the central part, the population is decreasing with high speed, but in the North Caucasus it is steadily growing. This clearly indicates the irregular and uneven character of the Russian population distribution. close to 0. Impartial statistics say that since 1991 population in Russia is stably decreasing and demographic forecasts for Russia predict further shortage due to the lowering of birthrates and rising of death rates.

Russia’s territory historically is less populated in the East and denser in the European part which is mostly due to geographical location and climate. In fact, the Siberian in periods of rapid growth the country had a tendency of a slow expansion to the East. This is evident from the following map of Russian cities from 1917 to 1990s. Relying on this fact, a concept of further investigation could become a possible way of development for the living environment in the country. Who will move to live in Yakutiya, Siberia, Far East? First way: internal movement of population. There is a Federal strategy to encourage people, especially young specialists, to move around the country. These are

medical services accessible to everyone, ability to get appropriate accommodation. Also, there is a tendency to migrate to oil production industrial areas (western Syberia). In this way, internal migration would be a trigger to infrastructural network of communications within the country should be developed. For example, today we have a tree-structured system of roads leading to the Far East, which is extremely non effective for a complex development of the territory. Second way: immigration from the Central Asia. According to demographic estimation11, immigration is the

not make the population dynamics positive. State Government nevertheless relies on possibility to increase the population by means of immigrants, because even in case of 4% growth of the Russian’s labor productivity, the country will need 20 more mln people in 12 Thus, from Governmental perspective, immigrants are the only way to cope with this crisis. This is also why the Russian Federation State Migration Policy Concept by the year 2025 was accepted last June. These are policies for shorter term of procedure for getting residence permission, more facilities and social services accessible for foreigners. New migration policy is a topic of debate. While some people can accept it, some can’t due to national creeds. Nevertheless, it is a very popular discussion among professionals and ordinary people, especially in the contest of analyzing European experience in multiculturalism.

roughly estimated perspective could be that migrants will come to Russia because they really will need it, whether Russia will be able to welcome them properly or not. Russia will have and how the living environment should Russia has never experienced a rapid and large scale integration of a new culture, except for the Mongol-Tatar Yoke in XIV century (which is a quite disputable topic). Time of the Yoke in Russia was stagnating period for the decay in craftworks (self-sharpening knifes), stagnating in city development (wooden water pipes in Novgorod) and a number of social issues (wars and exhaustion by the tributes). Today’s agenda is different, potential cohabitation of the Russian and Eastern culture should be mutually voluntary inevitably bring changes to the social environment and physical image of the cities which Europe has already experienced. For example, Sweden is accepting refugees from the countries of Middle East for more than 40 years and in certain cities (e.g. Malmo, Gothenburg) today there is an extremely high percentage of immigrants in the national consistence. In 1993 there were 10% of refugees in Sweden, in 2011 it became twice as big13, and for the particular population of the city of Malmo it is 29%14 of people with foreign roots.

O R ACLE IN WRI TI NG CITATIONS ON THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA

For the last two centuries, Russian literature has played a significant role in both the cultural as well as the public life of the country. In both the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, social and political activities were suppressed by the State, and newspapers and other media were censored... in a way, for some time literature was the only free platform for a discourse about the destiny of the country and its’ alternative futures. Numerous literary journals and ‘Samizdat’ were eager to document reality outside of that which was typically projected. Sometimes writers and poets would dream, trying to find a road that Russia should travel along and envision the pictures of a bright, optimistic world through utopias; while in other cases, writers had a great fear for the future and produced dystopias as a kind of warnings: both of these perceived futures said a lot about the perceived problems at

the time the work was created. In parallel, there were authors who showed a great intuition and perception of the atmosphere of the time, even had the foresight to predict some of the most crucial events of 20th century Russian history. Perhaps the most interesting contribution of Russian writers and poets is not necessarily the futures they pose, but instead the questions about the future that arise as a result of their literature. Raising questions without necessarily answering them gives their readers a chance to interpret the traditional myths, and, perhaps more often, to eventually believe in the most ambitious outcome for the country. As it had a great audience in the Russian “literature centric culture”, Russian literature has accumulated so many shared questions and images for the country’s future, and it becomes very interesting to investigate its consequences and the opportunities. Russia’s prerevolutionary literature, in a way, predicted and determined the Russian Revolutions of 1905 and 1917. The works of poets of the 19th century – Pushkin, Lermontov, Tyutchev – and of poets of the Silver Age – Blok, Bely, Voloshin, Khlebnikov, Balmont – as well as the works of some writers – Dostoyevsky, Turgenev, Saltykov-Shchedrin, Chekhov – provided a foresight of a major shift of social, political and economic systems in the country; a lot of predictions hinted at the possibility of a bloody revolution, the end of monarchy and tsarism; some foretold the crisis of faith and the coming of atheism; others described the destruction of cultural realm of noble intelligentsia by the new social classes, e.g. proletariat. But apart from the dark foresight of the period, Russian literature of the time documented prophecies of hope for Russia’s revival and enforcement of spiritual strength after the catastrophes; Chernyshevsky was a powerful inspiration for many generations of readers with its utopian image of a great socialist future. Even when not prophecizing, writers and poets often try to augur the destiny of Russia – a beloved Motherland – through the deep contemplation that has significantly expanded the space of Russian literary future. During the Soviet period, the future was one of the most manipulated and popular public terms: this of course manifestated in literature. The communist utopias were most commonly described in the literature of that period; first naive dreams of Chayanov’s peasant utopia and Mayakovsky’s Flying Proletarian of the 1920‘s were replaced by Strugatsky and Efremov’s developed

communist ethical and educated Universes for creative labor in the sci-fi of the 1950-1960’s. But there were also different attitudes to the future, i.e. Zamyatin, Platonov, Olesha, Esenin, Aksenov, Voinovich sensed the absurd of the communist ideology and even, to a certain extent, predicted the defeat of soviet dreams and ideas. Sometimes the toughest conditions of the regime produced metaphysical literary jewels such as Andreev’s Rose of the World, which described one of the lightest spiritual utopian realms. Just one or two decades before the collapse of USSR, Russian literature seemingly stopped predicting such futures; due to certain, more pressing issues – a fatigue and disillusion with the bright communist future, shortage of products, the problems of a new created country, privatization and start of the rat race – public and literary attention was shifted to (what was then) the present day. Russian writers and poets who tried to speak about the future, i.e. Pelevin, Sorokin, Swarovski, Glukhovsky, either created the dark images of Russia’s possible future compiled from past soviet traumas and fears of the present ,or they created a space for escapist dream that could have reduced the perceived pain. But had the future really disappeared from Russian literature? Perhaps it was no longer projected in the same way (i.e.: through a concrete outcome); however, some of the works by Pelevin,

“...METAPHYSICAL INSIGHTS CAN SHIFT THE PERCEPTION AND ATTITUDE TOWARD THE FUTURE...” Mamleev, Swarovski contained metaphysical insights: questions posed which, when the reader answered them according to their own opinion, could shift the perception and attitude towards the future. Hopefully, these examples are the first germs for the literary future of Russia being crowdsourced – so that generally authors won’t create a static image of a future, but provide the readers with a space where they can build it for their own. Oracle in Writing is a project that provides the reader with a sampling of citations from literature, which, once compiled, offer a multitude of possibilities and interpretations: the reader can regret Russia’s past, feel sarcasm about its present, think of alternative

histories and create new futures, have doubts, find vague temporary solutions, contemplate, be disappointed, sense spiritual sorrow and pain, find inspiration and love for the Motherland, and, probably most importantly, stay alive. It is an essay composed of selected literary quotes extracted from the works of Russian writers and poets for a metaphysical divination on Russia’s past, present and future in order to stimulate questions rather than give any answers; to hypnotise the reader and make him feel engaged with the future of Russia; make him believe that he has hidden powers to change it – or at least to change himself.

Оракул не дает инструкций, что делать, и не предсказывает будущего. Оракул направляет внимание на те скрытые силы и мотивы, которые формируют будущее своим неощутимым присутствием внутри каждого момента настоящего. 23

The Oracle doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t give instructions about what to do and doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t foretell the future. The Oracle directs your attention to those secret forces and motives which form the future with an intangible presence inside each moment of the present 23

Закат в крови! Из сердца кровь струится! Плачь, сердце, плачь… Покоя нет! Степная кобылица Несется вскачь!6 Все, что было, повторится ныне… И опять затуманится ширь, И останутся двое в пустыне — В небе — Бог, на земле — богатырь. Эх, не выпить до дна нашей воли, Не связать нас в единую цепь. Широко наше Дикое Поле, Глубока наша скифская степь66. Ворота депо были открыты в вечернее пространство лета — в смуглое будущее, в жизнь, которая может повториться на ветру, в стихийных скоростях на рельсах, в самозабвении ночи, риска и нежного гула точной машины. Машинист-наставник сжал руки в кулаки от прилива какой-то освирепевшей крепости внутренней жизни, похожей на молодость и на предчувствие гремящего будущего40. «Женщины! Мы сдуем с вас копоть, очистим ваши ноздри от дыма, уши — от галдежа, мы заставим картошку волшебно, в одно мгновенье, сбрасывать с себя шкуру; мы вернем вам часы, украденные у вас кухней, — половину жизни получите вы обратно. Ты, молодая жена, варишь для мужа суп. И лужице супа отдаешь ты половину своего дня! Мы превратим ваши лужицы в сверкающие моря, щи разольем океаном, кашу насыплем курганами, глетчером поползет кисель! Слушайте, хозяйки, ждите! Мы обещаем вам: кафельный пол будет залит солнцем, будут гореть медные чаны, лилейной чистоты будут тарелки, молоко будет тяжелое, как ртуть, и такое поплывет благоухание от супа, что станет завидно цветам на столах»20. Чтоб в будущий яркий, радостный час вы носились в небе любом — сейчас летуны разбиваются насмерть, в Ходынку вплющившись лбом. Чтоб в будущем веке жизнь человечья ракетой неслась в небеса — и я, уставая из вечера в вечер, вот эти строки писал.

The sunset’s blood! With blood the heart is streaming ! Weep, heart, but weep… And still, the steppe mare gallops, onward speeding ! There is no sleep !6 All that has been will be now repeated And the wide open spaces will be again shrouded in haze And the two will remain in the desert — Earth for the hero and sky for the Goddess’s embrace. Oh, our will can’t be quaffed to the bottom All of us can’t be bound in chains Our Wild Field is always unthinkably broad Our Scythian steppe is incredibly deep66. The depot gate was open to the evening summer expanses — to a swarthy future, to a life that can be repeated in the wind, in the fateful speed on rails, and the oblivion of night, risk and the tender hum of a precise machine. The engine driver clenched his hands in fists from the flow of a fiercely strong internal life similar to youth and to a premonition of a thunderous future40. “Women ! We will blow the soot off you, clean your nostrils of smoke, your ears of hubbub, we will make potatoes magically shed their jackets in a split second; we will return the hours stolen from you in your kitchens, — you will get back half your lives. You, young wife, are making your husband some soup. You’re giving up half your day for a puddle of soup ! We’ll turn your puddles into a glittering sea, we’ll serve up oceans of cabbage soup, we’ll pile up mounds of oatmeal, cornstarch pudding will flow like a glacier ! Listen, housewives, and wait ! We promise you: your tiled floors will be flooded with sun, your copper pots will gleam, your plates will be lily-white clean, milk will be as thick as mercury and such a perfume will arise from your soup that the flowers on your tables will be envious.”20 In some future bright, and joyful hour you may scamper about in any sky — now fliers fall to their deaths in Khodynka squashing foreheads — they’ll never again try. That human life in the future ages might fly like a rocket off to the sky and I, getting tired from evening to evening, might write all these very lines.

Рабочий! Крестьянин! Проверь наощупь, что и небеса — твои! Стотридцатимиллионною мощью желанье лететь напои! Довольно ползать, как вошь! Найдем — разгуляться где бы! Даешь небо! Сами выкропим рожь — тучи прольем над хлебом. Даешь небо! Слов отточенный нож вонзай в грядущую небыль! Даешь небо!19

Забота о физическом воспитании, чистая, правильная жизнь десятков поколений избавили вас от третьего страшного врага человеческой психики — равнодушия: пустой и ленивой души. Заряженные энергией, с уравновешенной, здоровой психикой, в которой в силу естественного соотношения эмоций больше доброты, чем зла, вы вступаете в мир на работу. Чем лучше будете вы, тем лучше и выше будет все общество, ибо тут взаимная зависимость. Вы создадите высокую духовную среду как составляющие частицы общества, и оно возвысит вас самих. Общественная среда — самый важный фактор для воспитания и учения человека69.

…Я все жду чего-то, как будто над нами должен обвалиться дом10. Погибнет ли эсесерша, подобно Насте, или вырастет в целого человека, в новое историческое общество? Это тревожное чувство и составляло тему сочинения, когда его писал автор. Автор мог ошибиться, изобразив в виде смерти девочки гибель социалистического поколения, но эта ошибка произошла лишь от излишней тревоги за нечто любимое, потеря чего равносильна разрушению не только всего прошлого, но и будущего41.

Workers ! Peasants ! Believe by touching that even the heavens are yours ! With strength of over a hundred million let’s water the wish to fly outpours ! Don’t crawl like a flea ! We’ll find — the space to let ourselves run free ! The skies are yours ! Ourselves we’ll spray the rye — pour from the clouds over the fields. The skies are yours ! Thrust the sharpened knife of words into the approaching fable ! The skies — you’re able !19

Good physical training, the clean, regular lives of dozens of generations have rid you of the third enemy of the human psyche, indifference, the empty and indolent spirit that arises out of a morbid insufficiency of energy in the body. You are going out in the world to work charged with the necessary energy, with a balanced, healthy psyche which, by virtue of the natural ratio of emotions, possesses more good than evil. The better you are, the better and more elevated society will be — the two conceptions are interrelated. You will create a high spiritual milieu as an integral part of society and society will elevate you. The social milieu is the most important factor in the training and teaching of the individual69.

…I keep on waiting for something to happen, as if the house is going to collapse over our heads10. Will the USSR die like Nastya, or it will grow into a whole person, a new historic society? This anxious feeling provided the theme of the work while the author was writing it. The author may have been mistaken in representing in the death of the little girl the death of the socialist generation, but this mistake was merely the result of excessive concern for something beloved, the loss of which is equivalent to the destruction not only of the entire past, but also of the future41.

Месяц синим рогом Тучи прободил. Кто-то вывел гуся Из яйца звезды — Светлого Исуса Проклевать следы. Кто-то с новой верой, Без креста и мук, Натянул на небе Радугу, как лук. Радуйся, Сионе, Проливай свой свет! Новый в небосклоне Вызрел Назарет. Новый на кобыле Едет к миру Спас. Наша вера — в силе. Наша правда — в нас!»14 все органы власти упразднены каждый является отчаянным патриотом любой страны все институты закрыты никто не работает все пишут стихи и прозу разводят лекарственные растения новые виды фруктов розы и в мире есть лишь одно государственное учреждение Институт Красоты все это уже происходит ну честное слово все это есть да и в прошлом все было не так даже динозавры были не голыми и с когтями а их покрывали белые перья и красивая длинная шерсть от начала мира никогда не раздавалось ни стона никогда не проливалась кровь и в будущем ничего никогда не случится всеми поступками живых существ управляет одна любовь50

Он оказался в саду и по дорожке вышел за его пределы. Впереди был лес, и он вошел в него. Свет не исчезал, и мрак не наступал18.

The moon with horns of blue Pokes the clouds with holes. Someone led the goose Out of its starry egg — The brightness of Jesus Is a sign pasted big. Without cross or passion, Someone with a new creed Stretched up to the heavens The spectrum like a bow arched. Rejoice, rejoice, O Zion, And weep now for the world! Once new on the horizon Nazareth has gown old. The world toward the Savior Rides like a fresh horse. But our faith — is in power, Our truth — in us!”14 all the agencies of government power have been abolished each one is a despairing patriot of any country all the institutes are closed no one works everyone writes poetry and prose grows medicinal plants new types of fruit roses and there in only one government institution in the world The Institute of Beauty all of this already happens really, scout’s honor, all of this is and in the past everything wasn’t that way even the dinosaurs weren’t nude and clawed and white feathers and beautiful long hair covered them since the beginning of the world never has a moan been uttered never has blood been shed and in the future nothing will happen all actions of living creatures only love will control50

He ended up in the garden and went along the path and out of its boundaries. Ahead was the forest and he went into it. The light didn’t vanish, and darkness didn’t descend18.

1. Aksenov, Vasiliy. “The Island of Crimea” (1979) — author’s edition in Russian. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 2. Andreev, Daniil. “The Rose of the World” (1959). Hudson, NY: Lindisfarne Books, 1997. Translated by Jordan Roberts, Donald Cannon 3. Balmont, Konstantin. “Our Tsar” (1906). translation from Ferro, Marc. Nicholas II: Last of the Tsars. New York: Oxford University Press, 1993. Print. 4. Bely, Andrey. “Christos voskres” (1918). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 5. Bely, Andrey. “To Russia” (1918). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 6. Blok, Alexander. “On the field of Kulikovo” (1908). Translated by Robin Kemball. 7. Blok, Alexander. “To Russia” (1908). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 8. Bogdanov, Alexander. “Red star” (1908). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 9. Chayanov, Alexander. “Journey of My Brother Aleksey to the Land of Peasant Utopia” (1920). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 10. Chekhov, Anton. “The Cherry Orchard” (1903). Translated by Julius West 11. Chernyshevsky, Nikolay. “A Vital Question: Or, What Is to Be Done?” (1863). New York: T.Y. Crowell, 1886. Print. Translation by Nathan H. Dole, and S S. Skidelsky. 12. Dostoyevsky, Fyodor. “The Dream of a Ridiculous Man” (1877). Adelaide: The University of Adelaide Library, 2009. Translated by Constance B. Garnett. 13. Dostoyevsky, Fyodor. “The Possessed” (1872). New York: Barnes and Noble Classics, 2005. Print. Translation by Constance Garnett, and Elizabeth Dalton. 14. Esenin, Sergey. “Inonia” (1918). Translated by Don Mager. 15. Glukhovsky, Dmitry. “Metro 2033” (2007). Moscow: Populyarnaya literatura, 2007. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 16. Gogol, Nikolay. “Dead souls” (1841). Translated by D.J. Hogarth 17. Lermontov, Mikhail. “The Prophecy” (1830). Translated by Yevgeny Bonver. 18. Mamleev, Yuriy. “Alone with Russia” (2009) — Russkie pokhody v tonki mir: esse, povest. Moskva: Zebra E, 2009. Print. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 19. Maykovsky, Vladimir. “The Flying proletarian” (1925). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 20. Olesha, Yuriy. “Zavist” (1927). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 21. Pelevin, Victor. “Batman Apollo” (2013). Moscow: Eksmo, 2013. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 22. Pelevin, Victor. “Chrustalny mir” (1991). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 23. Pelevin, Victor. “Divination runes or Runic Oracle of Ralph Bloom” (1990). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 24. Pelevin, Victor. “Dzhon Faulz i tragediya russkogo liberalizma” (1993) — Vse povesti i esse. Moscow: Eksmo, 2005. Quote translated by Donald Cannon 25. Pelevin, Victor. “GKCHP as Tetragrammaton” (1993). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 26. Pelevin, Victor. “Hermit and Sixfinger” (1990). Translated by Serge Winitzki and Sergey Bratus. 27. Pelevin, Victor. “Ikstkan-Petushki” (1993) — Vse povesti i esse. Moscow: Eksmo, 2005. Quote translated by Donald Cannon 28. Pelevin, Victor. “Ivan Kublakhanov” (1994) — Zeltaya Strela. Moscow: Eksmo, 2011. Quote translated by Donald Cannon 29. Pelevin, Victor. “Makedonskaya kritika frantsuzskoy mysly” (2003) — Vse povesti i esse. Moscow: Eksmo, 2005. Quote translated by Donald Cannon 30. Pelevin, Victor. “Mittelshpil” (1991) — Vse Rasskazy. Moscow: Eksmo, 2010. Quote translated by Donald Cannon 31. Pelevin, Victor. “Oligarchs’ names on Motherland’s map” (1998). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 32. Pelevin, Victor. “Omon Ra” (1992). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 33. Pelevin, Victor. “Papakhi na bashnyakh” (1995). Quote translated by Donald Cannon

34. Pelevin, Victor. “S.N.U.F.F.: Utopia” (2011). Moscow: Eksmo, 2012. Quote translated by Ivan Sokolov 35. Pelevin, Victor. “The Sacred Book of the Werewolf” (2004). New York: Viking, 2008. 36. Pelevin, Victor. “The Yellow Arrow” (1993). New York: New Directions, 1996. Print. Translated by Andrew Bromfield 37. Pelevin, Victor. “Ultima Tuleev or the Dao of elections” (1996). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 38. Pelevin, Victor. “Viera Pavlovna’s ninth dream” (1991). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 39. Pelevin, Victor. “Zombifikatsia” (1994) — Vse povesti i esse. Moscow: Eksmo, 2005. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 40. Platonov, Andrey. “Chevengur” (1929). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 41. Platonov, Andrey. “The Foundation Pit/Kotlovan” (1930). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 42. Pushkin, Alexander. “To Chaadaev” (1818). Translated by Andrey Kneller. 43. Saltykov-Shchedrin, Mikhail. “Edinstvenniy” (1871). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 44. Sologub, Fyodor. “From Hymns to Motherland” (1903). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 45. Sorokin, Vladimir. “Day of the Oprichnik” (2006). New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011. Translated by and Jamey Gambrell. 46. Sorokin, Vladimir. “Goluboe Salo” (1999). Moscow: Ad Marginem, 1999. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 47. Sorokin, Vladimir. “Metel” (2010). Moscow: AST, 2010. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 48. Sorokin, Vladimir. “Saharniy Kreml” (2008). Moscow: AST, 2008. Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 49. Strugatsky, Arcadiy and Boris. “Noon, 22nd Century” (1967). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 50. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Everything bad/everything good” (2007). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 51. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Frantsuzskaya kolbasa” (2005). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 52. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Glory to heroes” (2006). Translated by Stephanie Sandler. 53. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Katya, muzh i mertvie inkassatory” (2005). Quote translated by Donald Cannon 54. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Kosmicheskiy put chesti i slavi” (2006). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 55. Swarovski, Fyodor. “President” (2006). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 56. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Proshchanie slavyanina” (2006). Quote translated by Donald Cannon 57. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Slava strane moyey” (2007). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 58. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Tolina Rodina” (2006). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 59. Swarovski, Fyodor. “Vse khotyat’ byt’ robotami” (2006). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 60. Tyutchev, Fyodor. “A spiritual prediction” (1854). Translated by F.Jude 61. Tyutchev, Fyodor. “The Prophecy” (1850). Translated by F.Jude 62. Tyutchev, Fyodor. “Russian geography” (1849). Translated by F.Jude 63. Tyutchev, Fyodor. “You’re not in the mood for verses” (1854). Translated by F.Jude 64. Voloshin, Maximilian. “Holy Russ” (1917). Translation from The Heritage of Russian Verse (Bloomington, IN: Indiana U, 1976), pp. 257-8. 65. Voloshin, Maximilian. “Preosuschestvlenie” (1918). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 66. Voloshin, Maximilian. “Wild field” (1920). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 67. Voloshin, Maximilian. “Zaklyatie o russkoiy zemle” (1919). Verses translated by Donald Cannon feat. Olga Metalnikova. 68. Voinovich, Vladimir. “Moscow 2042” (1986). Quote translated by Donald Cannon. 69. Yefremov, Ivan. “Andromeda Nebula” (1957). Moscow: Foreign languages publishing house. Translated by George Hanna. 70. Zhitinsky, Aleksander. “Plyvun” (2011). Polden’ XXI vek, #4-5, 2011. Quote translated by Donald Cannon.

INSIDE RUSSI A’S ENERGY NARRATIVES Forecasting is one of the key instruments used to understand the future and plan certain actions. In particular, economic forecasts are important as they are supposed to reduce the level of uncertainty and risks that are critical to economic performance. However, the question is how forecasts really work in practice and what their real intention is. The focus of this research is forecasting in the energy sector. Because this sector represents one of the most closest expert environment in economic forecasting. The study conducted shows that the real goal of forecasts in this field is to influence the present, and not to accurately predict the future. Good forecasts achieve this by adopting marketing tools and using the necessary figures to support the key idea “promoted”. Considering that any forecasting model has a huge range of probabilities, it is not difficult to pick up necessary data without any manipulation or misrepresentation. This is an irony of forecasting, where very different, even opposite results are scientifically correct. The fact that the goal of economic forecasts is not to predict the future but to influence the present is not negative. It is a reality that decision makers should consider when using these forecasts. At the same time, understanding the nature of forecasts can help activists create more powerful works that can trigger positive changes in Russia, and not just be left on the shelf. The main research material were reports made by governments, corporations, NGOs and academic institutions. Tracking of circumstances and real goals of forecasts was the general goal of research and a tool to confirm a hypothesis. 21 interviews1 with experts were conducted to prove the initial hypothesis. Experts represent different backgrounds. From Government to corporations and academic institutions. These interviews provided insights on the industry and helped to find the actual mechanics and motives which move forecasters in energy sector. 371 forecasts were collected for analysis. Majority of forecasts were long-term, made by international institutions, governments and corporations. 90% of this amount were global forecasts and 10% were regional scale such as gas consumption forecast for European Union.

KEY STAKEHOLDERS IN FORECASTING In making forecasts, four parties are usually involved2: the ordering party, finance party, contractor and designers, who are usually outsourced by contractor. The ordering party and contractor are the ones who have their own agenda. The “manipulation” is a result of them. The ordering party has an idea, they set the agenda, but it is the contractor who can translate this idea into forecasting language and integrate it to a forecast so that it looks proper and reliable. INTERESTS OF ORDERING PARTY Governments. All forecasts about internal situations in the country are a part of the political cycle; in other words, propaganda. Corporations. By definition they are “with interest” in their industry, so nobody in the scientific community can consider them as objective. You cannot prove that they are manipulative. But at the same time if someone says it is objective, they should prove it. This is impossible because the argument that forecaster has its commercial interest in a forecasting area is enough to confirm that it is not objective. But it is not enough to prove manipulation. International organizations. Opposite to corporations by definition and are considered as objective. But regardless if they have this place in the group, they use it to promote their ideas. United Nations, World Bank and other major global institutions are optimistic or neutral as a rule. Because they are very important players and if they forecast negative future it is more likely to happen then because everybody will believe in it. That is why they are trying to give a range of scenarios. Their goal is to push some stakeholders to action. Academics. Their agenda is scientific and they are not involved in politics if they are the ordering party. They show how professional and up to date they are. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Their agenda is to be very critical. The more they highlight the risks, the more attention they receive. Otherwise they are not considered by decision makers and general public.

Ordering party Finance party

Contractor “Designer”

Ordering Party

Governments

part of a political cycle

Corporations

business interest in the forecasting sphere

Interanational institutions

NGOs

Academics

using “the most objective” brand to promoting ideas

to push changes being critical and threatening

scientific agenda, no politics or business

General public

Decision makers

Professional public

Decision makers

Forecast General public

Decision makers

Journalists Decision makers

Decision makers are final “consumers” even if forecast influensed other group of people first.

Decision makers

FORECASTING HORIZONS AND PURPOSE OF USE

> 3 years

up to 10 years

everyday decision making

strategic planning and policymaking

more then 10 years

international policy and academic activities

WHAT INFLUENCES THE FORECASTING PROCESS? NOT ONLY INTERESTS Psychological factors. Apart from the conscious motivation to shape forecasts according to a specific goal, there are also factors which influence forecasting process such as confirmation bias, selective recall, biased evaluation, and risk perception, one of the most important factors in this group. People would rather leave things as they are. It is called aversion to loss: people are more concerned about the risk of loss than they are excited by the prospect of gain. Socio-cultural factors. National and cultural differences are extremely important in forecasting and attitudes towards future. Probably Geert Hofstede3 models are important from this point of view because they provide an overview of future perception by different socio-cultural groups. Typology of differences in forecasting according to location-specific socio-cultural differences are necessary to consider while doing analysis of forecasting. Biases. People tend to overestimate the extent to which others share their views, beliefs, and experiences-the falseconsensus effect. There are several cases:

- Confirmation bias, the tendency to seek out opinions and facts that support our own beliefs and hypotheses - Selective recall, the habit of remembering only facts and experiences that reinforce our assumptions - Biased evaluation, the quick acceptance of evidence that supports our hypotheses, while contradictory evidence is subjected to rigorous evaluation and almost certain rejection; we often, for example, impute hostile motives to critics or question their competence - Groupthink, the pressure to agree with others in teambased cultures

ANY FORECAST INFLUENCES DECISION MAKERS EVEN IF IT WAS NOT A “HIDDEN” GOAL

“...WHEN YOU SHOW YOUR CLIENT A FORECAST IT CHANGES THE SYSTEM YOU WERE TRYING TO PREDICT. NEW INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE CHANGE HIS DECISIONS. IN FACT WHEN PEOPLE LEARN A NEW FORECAST IT CAN’T BE TRUE ANYMORE BECAUSE IT WAS ABOUT SITUATION WHEN NOBODY KNEW ABOUT THIS FUTURE. THAT IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY MANY FORECASTS ARE WRONG. BUT THEY CAN BE GOOD INSTRUMENTS TO CORRECT THE SYSTEM...”

KEY APPROACHES FOR FORECASTING

PR AND KPIS IN FORECASTING

1. Based on current policy. In fact it is a projection of current trends. World Energy Outlooks by International Energy Agency is from this group. This group of forecasts is the most general and provide an overview what can happen if current trends will be projected into the future. Authors of those forecasts are trying to focus maximum on 20-25 years time period. Of course there are forecasts for 2050, but they are mostky made for academic purposes and showing them on conferences. 2. Based on new policy implementation value and showing that it is possible to achieve a desirable future. Example of this group of forecasts is “The Energy Report. 100% Renewable Energy by 2050” made by WWF, Ecofys, OMA published in 2011. Another case is “Energy [r]Evolution a Sustainable World Energy Outlook” by greenpeace Greenpeace International published in 2010 or International Energy Agency 450 ppm scenario4. 3. Comparison of cost of inaction and new policy implementation. This is a developing group of scenarios. The main problem of which is absence of reliable methods to calculate all economic risks and costs such as climate change. One of the first trials was Stern Report5. But still this group of forecast is not developed well and is expected to be developed in 5-7 years6.

Forecast producers who publish forecasts send a press release to journalists, trying to ‘sell’ their forecasts to them. Then the PR department monitors how many references were in mass media to their report. It is a PR tool for the company, and the number of publications is a way they measure success. If there is nothing interesting in this report, nobody will write about it and nobody will know about it. That is why if a forecast released before significant international event, it is more likely to be discussed more and have more media hits.

Michail Yulkin, RSPP

That is the reason why scandal is always good for the promotion purposes. A good example when scandal is actually used for discriminating a forecast is “Climategate”. Began in November 2009 with the hacking of a server at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) by an external attacker. Thousands of file copies and emails were published in internet. Which gave an opportunity for mass media to start a huge scandal about scientists to manipulate facts to prove climate change. It was called by daily Telegraph: The worst scientific scandal of our generation in a newspaper published 28th Nov 2009 just before Copenhagen Climate Summit. And had an extremely big impact on the Summit.

“...PR DEPARTMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DISTRIBUTION OF FORECA STS. AND THEIR KPI IS A NUMBER OF MEDIA HITS. THERE IS NO KPI FOR POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE HITS AND NO KPI FOR PRECISION OF THE FORECAST...”

Anastasiya Laukkanen, CNN

FORECASTERS’ TRICKS AND MOTIVES:

DO NOT FORECAST A NEGATIVE FUTURE FOR YOURSELF This example of possible motivation is based on Gazprom’s vision about future of the EU Gas market. As you can see on the image, Gazprom is more positive than the most positive International Energy Agency’s scenario. One of the reasons for that is influencing market price for gas.

2. Since Gazprom’s position is that market will grow it’s easier for them to keep high price. Considering that in a short-term it’s impossible for EU to diversify gas supply in a long term high price will hit Gazprom’s export because market will be transformed due to a high short-term price. That’s why Gazprom in future can lose a significant part of the market it forecasts to grow.

source: Russian Energy Agency

HOW SUPPORT OF GENERAL PUBLIC WAS CREATED ON EARLY DEVELOPMENT STAGES BY SHOWING AN “AMAZING” NUCLEAR ENERGY FUTURE

“OUR CHILDREN WILL ENJOY IN THEIR HOMES ELECTRICAL ENERGY TOO CHEAP TO METER...” Lewis L. Strauss, Chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Commission, his speech to the National Association of Science Writers in New York City on September 16th, 1954

MARKETING TOOLS HELP TO SEEK FOR PUBLIC SUPPORT At the beginning of nuclear energy industry there was a big variety of positive marketing messages. Lewis L. Strauss, Chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Commission made a statement which became a classic of that period, “Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter...”, and the whole period was penetrated with optimism. That helped politicians and corporations push their plans forward and construct new power stations. BEING THREATENING IS THE ONLY WAY FOR NGOs TO ATTRACT ATTENTION For NGOs one of the key ways to attract attention is to appear threatening. Greenpeace is particularly good at this, since their strategy is to attract attention to pressing issues. The recent Greenpeace’s report “Point of no Return” report7 was presented just before Davos Economic Summit and triggered a lot of media debates8. The Report showed that if largest corporations will implement their current development policy climate will be changed and it will cause catastrophic events. Other NGOs such as World Wildlife Fund are less threatening but they are using this approach too in a design of their reports..This is not only about showing risks, but also a huge range of marketing tools. Report should be presented before significant international event so it will have more media hits.

THE FUTURE WAS NOT AS AMAZING AS EXPECTED

source: Wired Magazine

WHEN INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE MAKE FORECAST, REALITY CHANGES When influential people make forecast, reality changes When Ali-al Naimi, Minister of Oil, Saudi Arabia made a forecast, the market was shaped by it. In 2008 when oil prices decreased dramatically, Ali-al Naimi made a statement that “fair oil price should be 75 USD”. Other key decision makers then started repeating it which resulted in the stabilization of oil prices at a level around 75 USD9 (see the graph above). That shows that an influential person such as the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia can shape the market only with one statement about future. But experts commented10 during conducted interview that Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world who is price maker. Other countries including Russia are price-takers.

“Ali al-Naimi pretty much controls the world’s oil tap”

Times

HOW OIL PRICE CAN BE INFLUENCED BY ALI-AL NAIMI STATEMENT

$/bbl

“Igor Sechin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia: Russia needs oil price not lower then 75 dollars” June 2009, RIA Novosti

“Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said fair oil price should be $75” November 2008, Reuters

50 “Saudi king sees fair oil price at $75-80” May 2009, Al Arabia News

40 30

“OPEC thinks that fair oil price should be not lower then 70 dollars” December 2008, Ashsharq Alawsat

20 10 0 11.2008

02.2009

05.2009

08.2009

11.2009

oil price data source: US Energy Information Admimistration

02.2010

05.2010

08.2010

11.2010

A book that launched a movement and triggered debates

EXPECTED FORECAST IS ACCEPTED BY PUBLIC EVEN IF IT IS BASED ON OBVIOUSLY WRONG ASSUMPTIONS The book “Limits of growth” commissioned by the Club of Rome and published in the 1972, conveyed the message that modern civilization would face environmental and economic collapse sometime in the mid-twenty-first century if we keep current policy and levels of economic growth. The assumption on which this book was based on is that the level of technology will be the same, which was of course wrong. But it started a new period of understanding of economic development because the idea that resources are used not properly was already obvious. The book just triggered debates. And it’s still valid and referenced by scholars.

YOUR POINT OF VIEW DEPENDS ON THE POSITION YOU HOLD Depending on interests, forecasts by different organizations varies. Recent medium-term oil market forecasts by IEA and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed this clearly. The International Energy Agency, an organization of oil net importers, in its recent Medium-term market report forecasted oil prices for 2017 at the level of 89 USD and OPEC’s share in the global market to be 33%. But OPEC’s recent forecast “World Oil Market” forecasts the oil price at 100 USD in 2017 and the share of OPEC in global oil market to be 39%. This is a clear example when forecasters see better futures for themselves.

Consumer’s vision of the future Producer’s vision of the future

OPEC’s share

Oil price

33%

89 USD

39%

100 USD

FORECAST IN OIL PRODUCTION IS VERY CONDITIONAL In 2008 Abdalla Salem El-Badri, Secretary General of OPEC claimed: “It is impossible to replace the production of Iran. The prices would go unlimited ... I can’t give you a number”. This message can be translated as – don’t enforce any sanctions against Iran and don’t start any war. And of course, this message was considered by markets and any increase in uncertainty around Iran was a factor

for oil prices to go up. But in 2011 and 2012, United States implemented a few stages of sanctions against Iran that were supported by Ali Al-Naimi, Minister of Oil, Saudi Arabia, with the statement: “We will step in and fill any gap in the oil market if needed”. And finally, Iran’s oil export dropped 40% and did not influence oil prices at all. This example shows the importance of politics in forecasting and how “expert opinion” can be shaped by political goals.

“IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO REPLACE THE PRODUCTION OF IRAN. THE PRICES WOULD GO UNLIMITED ... I CAN’T GIVE YOU A NUMBER.” Abdalla Salem El-Badri Secretary General of OPEC Associated Press, 12.2008

“WE DON’T WANT TO REPLACE IRANIAN OIL...WE WILL STEP IN AND FILL ANY GAP IN THE MARKET IF NEEDED....” Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia oil Minister Reuters

...BUT OIL PRICE DIDN’T “GO UNLIMITED” WHEN SANCTIONS IN 2011 AND 2012 WERE INTRODUCED WHICH RESULTED IN 40% DROP IN IRAN’S OIL PRODUCTION...

$/bbl 120 110

Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

100 90

Jan 2011

Apr 2011

Jul 2011

Oct 2011

Jan 2012

Apr 2012

Jul 2012

Oct 2012

Jan 2013

Apr 2013

ADVOCATING OWN INACTION Global mass media questions Gazprom’s future due to shale gas revolution. There were several articles in top mass media with headlines like “Gazprom Biggest Loser as Shale Gas Upends World Markets”11. And they general vision by key experts is that Gazprom lost the moment of shale gas revolution and didn’t even try to adopt its strategy to it. Now due to growing pressure from cheap shale gas on the market Gazprom is under big threat of losing its market share in Europe. But what are Gazprom’s top managers are doing is advocating their inaction and trying to “advertise” the idea that “shale gas revolution is a bubble about to burst”12. One expert who wanted not to be named told the author “Gazprom hired one PR company from United States to promote the idea that shale gas is a bubble and they didn’t miss any new trends”

Global media questions Gazprom’s future

“Gazprom Biggest Loser as Shale Gas Upends World Markets” Bloomberg, 22.06.2012

Gazprom questions the obvious trend to advocate own inaction

“American Shale Gas Project is a Bubble About to Burst” Russia Today, 30.03.2013

CONCLUSION Different groups of motives and goals that move forecasters were defined: - Influencing the market (prices, delivery conditions) - Creating a scandal for the launch of the forecast. The number of media hits is the KPI for forecasters - Seeking public support to advocate new policy - Advocating political actions - Threats But it does not mean that forecasts are created for manipulative purposes. It is a part of the nature of forecasts and it influences the reality, even if it was not the purpose. Users of forecasts should know this fact and consider it while working with forecasts. At the same time, findings of the research can be used for designing a forecast which will be considered by Russian decision makers or will “impress” them. Forecast producers should follow several guidelines. To produce such a forecast we need to use following. The key focus of a successful forecast for Russia must include risk analysis for Russian oil exports. Showing risks for the oil industry will attract attention of decision makers because the whole economy is driven by oil industry. Risks for oil in Russia are equal to a future of country’s existence. It is necessary to use an impressive apocalyptic image. In Russia’s case it is even better to use abstract image related to Russia’s dependence on oil and gas exports. Forecast should be produced by a respected international organization, and be presented before significant

international event. In this case, it will have the maximum number of media hits. When making forecasts for Russia, it is better not to use American and British experts. Otherwise, there is a risk that it will be reflected to be “West propaganda”. The best choice are German experts. Of course, forecasts need a threatening or at least attention-attracting title. Showing environmental risks and climate risks are not important because in Russia it is often considered as green lobby or greenwashing. Political risks are probably second most important after risks for oil export. These are the two top things that attracts decision makers’ attention. Russian politicians like to see clear benefits. So it is a must to show as precise as possible the amount of money and value created by new policy implementation (if new policy is proposed in the forecast). There is no need to show an apocalyptic future – neither environmental nor economic. Decision makers are too optimistic (at least officially) to believe in apocalypse and to be threatened by it. Use of these simple guidelines can help a forecaster attract more attention to his work and potentially trigger debates or even changes in Russia. Understanding of the nature of forecasting can be useful, not only for proper decision making, but also as an instrument of influence and for triggering positive changes.

L’EXCEPTION RUSSE

Russia is a country with a long tradition of being ‘unique’ that has endured a long process of change over the course of its history. In order to understand the drivers of change within the country and society, it’s important to define exactly what creates this “otherness”. In many ways, Russian identity has been shaped by an abundance of exceptions that drive the country to move forward in its own direction and behave in a particular way. The most important exceptions are primarily territory based, since Russia’s most obvious and well-known uniqueness is its huge landmass. These territorial considerations have strong political implications, and therefore can be considered primary drivers of Russian national policy and character, even today. The first exception to take into consideration is the perceived impacts of continued climate change, which, perhaps contrary to intuition, are expected to play a positive role in country’s development. According to scientific reports, the Earth is getting warmer, and by 2060 the average temperature across the planet will rise by 2’

in the most conservative scenario and by 6’ in the worst case. Globally, it means dry and completely uncomfortable weather, lack of fresh water, and food scarcity, while, at the same time, it seems that Russia will only benefit since once frozen Siberian lands will turn into fertile, arable land.

The Northern Rim is a set of countries which will face the prosperity following major climate change Data source: [http://i.dailymail. co.uk/i/pix/2010/09/06/article1309419-0B0E95E0000005DC364_634x441.jpg]

It is equally important to consider the unique territorial approach with which Russian leaders have planned the country. From tsarist time, the government has been planning and implementing large-scale infrastructure projects of all kinds to develop wild Siberian and Far Eastern lands. This tradition of strategic planning seems to be one of the most powerful drivers of country’s progress. Starting from the development in the North of the country in 19th century, to the projects of rivers reversal, and construction of Northern railroads, these ambitious projects have shaped a unique approach to development of territory, as well as problem-solving and decision-making as a whole. The last important exception is Russia’s geographical and metaphysical position being “in-between” Europe and Asia. Throughout history, Russia claimed to be (and was, for the most part politically oriented as) a European country under Peter the Great, then as an Asiatic country under Stalin, and according to some, at certain moments as a “Eurasian country”, whatever that means... It seems that this status of undefined civilization, which does not quite fit to any of existing cultures or paradigms, has become a great benefit for Russia because it makes possible to, at different moments, or for different strategic reasons, take different sides…or potentially not to take sides at all, should it be beneficial. In this way, Russia’s territorial uncertainty has become a valuable advantage.

It is important to consider that in many ways, each of these exceptions have, to a certain extent, formed Russia as a country and a nation. As Russia continues to develop, will the exceptions continue to determine the mode of development? If so, how? What is a role of the political in the exceptions? Could we predict the future of Russia through the projection of its exceptions? L’exception Russe The title is derived from the French expression “l’exception francaise”. The phrase, which is increasingly used to describe a political state and approach, sums up “all that is defiantly different about the country and its people and which sets it apart from its geographical peers and political allies”. Basically, this state of exception allows France to do everything in a different way than others. The term originally conveyed the belief that the demand for human rights and social welfare was unique in its insight and place in French national culture. Yet this expression has since given way to contentious notions of cultural purity, resistance to the perceived effacement of French culture and criticism of supposedly “foreign intrusions within that culture”. [http://escholarship.ucop.edu/uc/item/22k2881v] Therefore, L’exception Russe is a notion of country’s uniqueness and its exceptional right to make independent decisions and behave in its own way. It’s not only about cultural purity, but also about a strong political will and exceptional policy in different spheres of life. climate conditions.

v World’s population density map 7,102,110,020 (2013/02/22) Data source: [http://www.

geonames.org/img/500pxGeonamesDensity.png]

< Projection of temeperature rise for 2060s. It’s expected that an average level will escalate from 2’ to 6’ in coming 50 years Data source: [http://www2. ucar.edu/sites/default/ files/news/2010/20602069wOceanLabels.jpg]

CLIMATE CHANGE It was first recognized that climate change could be beneficial for Russia at the end of 19th century, when a Russian scientist predicted that the disappearance of the Arctic ice cap would vitally improve climate in the country. He even proposed to powder the ice with “black dust” to speed up the process of melting, meaning that it would become possible to grow wheat in Siberia on a shore of the Arctic Ocean. Today, global warming and climate change has become an inalienable part of our daily life. Moreover, the term has quite negative connotation and is usually used to depict scaring future of humankind on Earth. However, some scientists say that several countries will only gain from global warming. These are countries of the Arctic region and Russia in particular. For instance, Laurence Smith, the author of a book called “The New North: the World in 2050” says that territories lying higher than latitude 45 will flourish in the future, while others will have to cope with serious problems like droughts, floods, starvation and lack of water. The very prosperity will face 8 arctic countries, which he calls “the Northern Rim”. They are Canada, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the USA and Russia. It seems that Russia will find itself in the most advantageous position since it has the biggest land reserves, which, until now, have not been fully developed due to extreme weather conditions. According to the world’s population density map, it appears population is irregularly dispersed across the globe. There are places where very few people live or territories are not inhabited at all, while others seem to be utterly overpopulated (the US, Europe, Middle East, some places in Africa, South East of China and Japan, partly Brazil). Although Russia’s territory is large, it appears on this map as one of the most “empty” places in the world, primarily because of its severe climate conditions.

However, the projection of temperature rise by 2060 suggests that exactly the most inhabited territories will suffer mostly in the future since there will be extremely dry weather and, as a result, the lack of food and fresh water. At the same time, the “empty” spots will turn into territories with the most comfortable climate conditions to live in. Therefore, future changes will provoke the great population movement across the planet, and will be followed by the development of previously untouched regions and adaptation to the new weather conditions. In Russia in particular, there are approximately 143 million people who dwell the territory of 17 075 400 sq. km., while, for instance, China has 9 596 960 sq. km. with the population of 1, 344 million of people [2011]. Moreover, population distribution of Russia’s population is highly unequal throughout the country’s territory. The part of the country with a close proximity to Europe is more populated, and there is a sort of a dwelled line across the southern border. The rest territory of Siberia and Far East has the average population density of 2 people for 1 sq. km. Meanwhile, according to numerous reports, Russia’s population is dramatically declining, and by 2050 it will be only 118 million people, even according to the most optimistic forecast. At the same time, climate is already changing in Russia. The most vivid evidence of this is the precedent of the so-called heat wave, which happened in Russia in 2010. There was an immensely hot summer and anomalous temperatures of land surface (some higher, some lower than normal) were detected across the whole country. Unusual, thus unpredictable, weather conditions throughout the year has become a new “normal” for Russia’s climate. If this trend continues into the future, Russia will witness gradual changes of climate zones and their step-by-step displacement. Tundra in the Extreme North will turn to taiga, while taiga will change to mixed forest and eventually into steppe. This phenomenon opens great possibilities for Russia to develop and efficiently use these lands.

“THIS map shows how the Soviet people, devoting their energies to peaceful construction, demonstrating their confidence in a peaceful future, are changing the face of nature on a scale unprecedented in human history”. The Great Plan for the Transformation of nature, 1948. Data source: [http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-

AbAHinCZA3k/T2unLwX0YBI/ AAAAAAAACFg/ LtV0YiHT0ws/s1600/socialism_ builds_a_new_world.jpg]

LAND AS A VECTOR Land has always meant a lot for Russia. It has gone all the way from a tiny country somewhere in Europe to the great empire that lands laid on three continents. Since Kievskaya Rus’ was formed in X century, discovering new lands and moving further and further behind the borders have been a driving force for country’s development. Moreover, this unlimited wish to expand the space of ownership, not even always appropriate for life, was also an instrument of Russia’s both Domestic and Foreign policy giving a direction to its interests and desires. Throughout the history Russia has followed a great number of national concepts which all somehow reflected importance of territory as a political vector. The metaphysical concept of Moscow being the “third Rome” has been and stayed an extremely popular idea which relates to the notion of a city or a state that is the successor to the legacy of ancient Rome (the “first Rome”) and via

connection to the Byzantyne Empire as being the “second Rome”. Basically, this idea is based on the concept of “translatio imperii” and is used to justify country’s religious and political importance. [13] Far land has been filled out with some mysterious magic abilities or some hidden secrets which could bring invaluable knowledge about unknown processes happening on the planet. The science fiction book “Sannikov Land” written by Vladimir Obruchev in 1924 is one of the examples reflecting this meaning. The novel describes a mystic land of Sannikov which believed to exist far in the Arctic Ocean. The first notions of the land appeared in 1811 when an experienced polar explorer Yakov Sannikov reported about this land near Novosibirsk islands. After that there was lots of expeditions aimed to prove the existence of this place since it was assumed that such far located land was supposed to have some unique climate conditions and ancient people dwelled it. Many famous explorers died in he Arctic trying to find Sannikov land till

in 1837 it was proven that such place doesn’t exist. Apart from the metaphysical sense of territory, it has been always a political tool for Russia. Alaska was a part of Russian Empire since 1733 till its sale to the United States in 1867. A number of colonial settlements were founded there during the second Kamchatka expedition aimed to check whether Siberia is connected with Americas or not. The main goal to colonize those lands was to get fur and trade it. Later the Russian-Alaska Company was set up for these purposes. The possessions of Russians included a small fort in California called Fort Ross where food was produced to supply northern territories. One another Fort Elizabeth was founded in Hawaii by Georg Anton Schäffer to support local government in the conflict with Americans, although it was abandoned in a year in 1817 to avoid the bigger conflict of interests between Russians and Americans. In 1867 Russian government decided that the Russian-Alaska Company was not profitable and because of the budget deficit it was sold to Americans. Apart from

obvious unprofitability of those lands, there was another reason to leave Alaska – in order to avoid the conflict with Britain Empire which owned modern Canada lands that time. Another territory dispute example of Russia is its still continuing conflict about the state of ownership of two southern Kuril Islands. The disputed islands were both Japanese and Russian territories in different time. The modern Kuril Islands dispute arose in the aftermath of WWII and results from the ambiguities in and disagreements about the meaning of the Yalta agreement (February 1945), the Potsdam declaration ( July 1945) and the Treaty of San Francisco (September 1951). The Yalta Agreement, signed by the US, Great Britain and the Soviet Union, stated: “The leaders of the three great powers – the Soviet Union, the United States of America and Great Britain – have agreed that in two or three months after Germany has surrendered and the war in Europe is

Metaphysical concepts of land importance for Russia: the cover of “Moscow the Fourth Rome” by Katerina Clark, the first Alaska map by Russians, the cover of “Sannikov Land” by Vladimir Obruchev Data source: 1 [http://www. ebook3000.com/upimg/ allimg/120303/2029190.jpg], 2 [http://historyofrussia.org/wpcontent/uploads/2011/07/EarlyRussian-map-of-Alaska.jpg], 3 [http://sovietbooks.files.wordpress. com/2012/09/sannikov-landjacket1.jpeg]

humanity as a whole. So, in coming 100 years we will see completely new Arctic which the whole planet attention will be focused on. THE INTERNATIONAL STATE The Arctic region will become a project of united humanity to protect the Earth and to solve issues of climate and energy crisis. A new international State will appear in the Arctic formed, first of all, by countries members of Arctic Council (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States), but others will be also participate in the process. Russia will become one of initiators of the integration process following its own endeavors of territory and, consequently, a sphere of influence expansion in the region. Moreover, this new political unit will get an access to oil and gas reserves hidden in the Arctic region as well as to the shortest Northwest trade route Europe – Asia with the global warming coming. The free trade zone will emerge controlled by the new State. There will be still some sectors of responsibilities among former members of Arctic Council, but borders will be open and interconnected. It’s likely that other countries participants will not only develop because of severe climate conditions unavailable before territories located behind the polar circle, but also try to expand these lands to create more space for life in the new State of Arctic. An appearance of a new country will provoke great

changes in the region in all basic realms of life. To build such a society will demand a new type of diplomatic relationship to evolve. Economically an open international trade zone will become a reason to develop the region according a new model of governing based on collaboration, interaction and an idea of common wealth. With the crisis of capitalistic economy system solutions based on a new precedent could become an answer to many challenges of “consumer society” which, basically, has led humanity to the point of crisis. Technologically the new State will have to cope with a number of unique problems specific for that area. First

“...THE ARCTIC REGION IS A UNIQUE AREA AMONG EARTH’S ECOSYSTEMS...” of all, new technology of adaptive construction of new settlements should appear since basic preconditions are completely undiscovered. Probably, the situation will be even more complicated due to ongoing transformations of the landscape because of climate change. One more point considering the technology issue will be finding new ways to extract oil and gas from the seabed safely. It is an urgent matter nowadays and it will become more important with existent reserves going to be depleted. From the demography point of view fast developing

< New technology of adaptive construction of new settlements will appear.

region will attract lots of different professionals and their families to become a part of the process. It’s supposed that an international community will emerge to build and serve the State. Moreover, people from mostly climate change suffered regions of the planet will be able to find their home in the country of Arctic. RUSSIA’S FUTURE Meanwhile, apart from its activity related to the Arctic State, Russia will begin to develop before frozen Siberian lands to convert them into fertile ones to supply the changing and growing world with food and fresh water. With a rising agro food demand experts are saying that global food production must increase 70% by 2050 to meet our needs. Therefore, Russia’s agenda for the future is to

“...EVEN IN OUR DAY, SCIENCE SUSPECTS BEYOND THE POLAR SEAS, AT THE VERY CIRCLE OF THE ARCTIC POLE, THE EXISTENCE OF A SEA WHICH NEVER FREEZES AND A CONTINENT WHICH IS EVER GREEN...”

prepare everything needed to answer this growing demand with given almost unlimited land reserves. Looking at the foresight, by 2033 the only projects to develop in the Russian North and Siberia will be infrastructural ones, while other federal sponsorship will be reduced step by step. Russia will keep its status of oil and gas oriented economy, although most of the profit will be spent to develop the European Russia. Through infrastructure development Russia is getting an access to new oil and gas basins and, at the same time, it is strengthening a geopolitical position in the Asian region by increasing goods circulation and becoming the main transit zone for Europe – Asia trading. By 2053, because of reduction of federal support to Siberia and Far North regions people will move to the European Russia leaving towns and villages. There will be still settlements, which serve infrastructure and secure the borders. Due to the decrease of population nature will revive after human’s activities and will be gradually changing because of the global warming. Oil and gas extraction will be continued as well as yet unfinished infrastructure projects will be developed further. By 2073 with increasing impacts of climate change followed by temperature rise by 2’-6’ the landscape of Russia will be significantly transformed, particularly in Siberia. It will open its once frozen massive lands, which will be being converted into fertile in time. Climate is going to stabilize bringing new opportunities for the land

PLAYING GOD BY BARMENKOVA YAROSLAVA

AN INTERVIEW TODAY, YOU CAN LIVE 120 YEARS AND IT IS NOT A BIG DEAL

12:00 25.05.2105 Activist Maria Vechnaya is a leader of the Body Preservation Community in Moscow. Despite the difficulties they encounter today, she is optimistic about the future. In the interview that follows with the Foresight in Hindsight Channel, she recounts a history of predictions about immortality in Russia, beginning with the origins of the idea, then describing the major driving elements of innovations which resulted in a radical life extension, and finally conditions encouraging search for immortality in the USSR and Russia and consequences of it in a society, religion, politics and culture.

A lot of scientists and futurologists predict that a way to immortality will be invented very soon. Do you share this hope? People always have been scared of death and wanted to believe that very soon we will find a way to prevent it. Although I don’t think that it will be possible in the foreseeable future, I support the idea that we continue exploring the possibility. Actually, a lot of innovations in our country were by-products of this search for the metaphysical and belief in immortality by certain people, groups and scientists. How do people search for the metaphysical? What does this mean, exactly? The idea of immortality in Russia finds its origins in two particular places: religion and fairy tales. In 988, when Kievan Rus was Christianized, we learned from the Bible that after a human ate from the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil, he would be all-knowing, and his mortality would therefore be the only one thing which makes him different from God. Therefore, it is noticeable that in periods of absence of religion in our country, interest to immortality was especially high. Fairy tales first revealed contrariety of the phenomenon of immortality. Koschei the Immortal, whose soul was hidden, is an example of one of the protagonists, and as part of the story, he terrorizes the rest. As long as his soul is safe, he cannot die. But in the same time the Water of Life and Death is used to recover Ivan Tsarevich and after that he saves a Tzar’s daughter. The same debates are continuing till the present day. On the one hand, people resent that the best technologies of life extension are available only to rich or those who are in power and it leads to bigger social differences in our country. On the

other hand, scientific advancements in life extension are giving everybody new opportunities in medicine.

“...AND THE LORD GOD SAID, “THE MAN HAS NOW BECOME LIKE ONE OF US, KNOWING GOOD AND EVIL. HE MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO REACH OUT HIS HAND AND TAKE ALSO FROM THE TREE OF LIFE AND EAT, AND LIVE FOREVER...” GENESIS 3:22 How did these ideas expand from metaphysics, religion, and fiction to science? The transition from religion and fiction to science was actually a morphing of scripture or stories into an ambition to prove the feasibility of such an idea. According to religious scripture, although God banished people from heaven once they sinned, he gave the promise that people will be resurrected after the Second Coming of Christ and the Last Judgment. Nikolai Fyodorovich Fyodorov was an Orthodox Christian philosopher. He believed that all the dead people will be resurrected. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky became a follower of Fyodorov’s philosophy. Actually, the whole idea to travel to other planets is based on the idea that after the resurrection there will be not enough space on Earth for everybody and humanity will need to populate other planets. Thus, Tsiolkovsky developed first spaceships.This helped the USSR become a pioneering country in space industry. Thus, having metaphysical origins, ideas about immortality expanded to all areas of people’s life, especially science and literature.

IDEAS ABOUT IMMORTALITY IN RUSSIA AS THEY APPEARED ACROSS DIFFERENT FIELDS

PAGANISM

FOLKLORE

‘Chernobog’ as a prototype of The Koschei the Immortal

Fairy tales about Koschei the Immortal and the Water of Life and Death

RELIGION

“...AND COME OUT - THOSE WHO HAVE DONE WHAT IS GOOD WILL RISE TO LIVE, AND THOSE WHO HAVE DONE WHAT IS EVIL WILL RISE TO BE CONDEMNED...”

PHILOSOPHY

John 5:29

Alexander Radishchev “On M His Mortality, His Immortalit SCIENCE

Institute of Exp is opened in St

“...A NEW SUPERHUMAN WILL FIND A WAY TO OVERCOME DEATH...” INFLUENCE

Vladimir Solovyov

IDEOL

DISPROOF

600

988

1700

1792

1890 1899

“...HE CHANGES DIRECTIONS OF RIVERS, SHIFTS HIGH MOUNTAINS, THE SOVIET COMMON MAN…” VASILY LEBEDEV-KUMACH

And what contribution of the ideology of the New Soviet Man makes to the field? There was an idea the “New Soviet Man” in the USSR – an ideal specimen – and many believed that Lenin was the first. The New Soviet Man is a kind of Übermensch: very strong, very smart and extremely powerful. Actually, the idea appeared even before the October Revolution as a reaction to Nietzsche philosophy; Vladimir Sergeyevich Solovyov wrote an article “The idea of a Superman” in 1899. Later, science fiction tried to describe a State where this kind of man would live. This State described was able to control climate, go to Space, change nature and, of course, to control the nature of a human too. For example, Aleksey Tolstoy in his 1925 “Azure cities” envisioned that those chosen by the government will be offered radical rejuvenation. So, science fiction inspired people to think about the problem? Actually, that time it happened vice versa. All the utopias that time were ordered or planned by the government. Stalin used all the measures to further his megalomaniac ideology. He believed in a power and in a bright future of the USSR… and to him, this future was not only words. A number of great projects were planed and realized in the Stalin time. A construction of the White Sea Canal, start of the project of the Siberian river reversal…and several experiments into the ability to lengthen life spans. There was a big famine between 1932 and 1933, resulting in many casualties. Average life expectancy was at its lowest point. This problem worried Stalin, as his people were the ones he needed to execute his ambitious projects. Envisioning these difficulties, Stalin even asked biologist Ylya Ivanovich Ivanov to create “invulnerable creature which will not experience pain, will be stable to different conditions, and indifferent to what he will eat”. The doctor decided to make a human-ape hybrid to meet these requirements. Fortunately, he failed. So, Stalin was interested in the extension of life in order to use people as resources for a longer period of time? On the one hand, yes, on the other hand, he cared about his own life too. Protection of his own life was also a strong motivation for a further search for immortality in the country. It is known that there was a doctor in Moscow who would transplant monkeys’ gonads to people. The “Ogonek” magazine described a success story of rejuvenation of professor Voronov through this method. But, of course, these operations were availableonly for a few people. Not surprisingly, Stalin was one of them.

Man, ty”

perimental Medicine t.Petersburg LITERATURE

First science fiction showing interest to materialistic immortality

LOGY

1914

1991

2013

“...IT IS THE FIRST STEP TOWARDS A FULL CONTROL OVER LIFE AND DEATH...” Experiments in the revival of organisms, The Smena magazine, 1925

> Human-ape hybrid experiments by Doctor Ylya Ivanovich Ivanov, The Smena magazine, 1926

Later, in 1933, Maxim Gorky, who was close to Stalin, said that “science should find a way for immortality”, and in 1934, Stalin decided to move the Institute of Experimental Medicine from Saint Petersburgto Moscow. Some people called it “the Institute of Immortality”. The first design of the institute was made by Nikolay Lanceray. There were two 22 floor buildings which unfortunately were never built. World War II came… Yes, ideas about immortality were forgotten for a long time, until a new life of science fiction came in the middle of the ‘50s. For example, the 1955 novel “Andromeda” by Ivan Efremov. This time it was real science fiction although it still pictures a bright Soviet future in which people will finally build ideal society and will live 170 years. In the 1961 “Noon: 22nd Century” by Strugatsky Brothers, the first digitalization of human brain was described. It is amazing how the authors were able to envision this technology such a long time ago. Now, almost half of the population is using it to save a memory about their relatives, although it does not help to make human immortal as Strugatsky Brothers thought.

“...AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE MORE THAN 120 YEARS...” STRUGATSKY BROTHERS It is only one sample of the unique flair of the Strugatsky brothers… Yes, they were quite visionary, but actual steps towards immortality which resulted in radical life extension were made much later, in the beginning of the 21 century. This time scientists from leading countries: the USA, Japan and Europe agreed that there could be different ways to radically extend people’s life spans: nanotechnologies, genetics, biotechnologies, cloning anddigitizing or transplantation of brains… It was the beginning of a science revolution and leaders of Russia understood that after the complete failure of Russia to participate in the computer revolution, we should not miss this one too. The country decided to invest, and started a development of these areas and technologies at the same time. It resulted in a diversified market of life and in a number of useful by-products.

BY-PRODUC T S O F T H E S E A R C H FOR IMMOR TALI TY

> From resurrection to Space

“...UNIVERSAL RESURRECTION IS A COMPLETE VICTORY OVER SPACE AND TIME...” Nikolai Fyodorovich Fyodorov , before 1900

From revival to reanimation

“...ONLY GRADUAL STEPS, TIMID AND AT FIRST QUITE BASIC EFFORTS TO REVIVE A MAN AND THE OCCASIONAL SUCCESS DESTROYED THIS WALL…” Negovsky Vladimir Alexandrovich, “Essays in Reanimation Medicine”, Photo ITAR-TASS, 1986 > From rejuvenation to blood transfusion

“...BLOOD TRANSFUSION BETWEEN PEOPLE IS USED AS A MEANS TO PROLONG LIFE...” Alexander Bogdanov, “Red Star”, 1908

<< From revival to suspended animation Best technology of suspended animation was created in Russia

< From revival to new cities A new type of science city based on Cryo-cemetery and Research Institute of Cryonics appeared in Russia < First prototype of a robot based on brain computer interface

From Immortality to Mars Russian robots with brain-computer interface were first sent to Mars instead of humans

CONDITIONS E N C O U R A G I N G S E A R C H F O R IMMORTALIT Y I N THE U SSR IDEOLOGY OF A NEW MAN OF A FUTURE

‘...A NEW SUPERHUMAN WILL FIND A WAY TO OVERCOME DEATH...’ Vladimir Sergeyevich Solovyov, 1899

AMBITIOUS LEADER OF A COUNTRY

“...SCIENCE WILL FIND A WAY TO IMMORTALITY...” Maxim Gorky, 1933

LEADER OF A COUNTRY IS INTERESTED IN THE EXTENTION OF PEOPLE’S LIFESPAN

Construction of the White Sea Canal under Stalin’s control, 1931-1933

For example? I’ve mentioned success on Mars already; in addition to this I would say that an appearance of a new type of science cities is also a result of the search for immortality. People were cryo-preserved with an aim to be revived in a future. There were only four cryo-companies in the world which stored those who were preserved in such a fashion. Three of them were in the USA and one in Russia. At some point, it became impossible to keep all the bodies in a city and they were moved to the northern part of Russia, where we had huge sites of unused territory situated in a cold climate. Thus, cryo-cemeteries appeared.

“...CRYONICS: THE EMERGING MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY OF CRYOPRESERVING HUMANS WITH THE INTENTION OF FUTURE REVIVAL...” But that time we only knew how to freeze people, but didn’t know how to wake them up to live. Thus, to explore the problem, on the basis of these cemeteries, the Research Institute of Cryonics was created. To this day, this institute is making large strides in the development of cryonics, and a number of important breakthroughs were made. This institute developed a unique method of suspended animation which is used on all the spaceships today. But, more importantly it gave an impetus for the development of the region and raised a level of life there. It seems that certain conditions at a particular point in time also encouraged the search for immortality? Right, when you look back at history and try to summarize that conditions that fostered the search for immortality, you can probably identify three which played the biggest role. First, the ideology of a New Man; second, the ambitious leader of a country and, finally, his interest in the extension of the citizens’ lifespan. In the beginning of the 21st century, these conditions appeared again. First of all, there was a certain ideology of a neo-human of a future. It is especially visible in a statement of the 2045 Social Initiative, one of projects of transhumanists, who were working on development and popularization of ideas about immortality. Secondly, Putin became one of the most ambitious leaders of our country. While Lenin in his age was named as “Grandpa Lenin”, Putin was famous for being the most sportive presidents, not just in Russia, but worldwide. Coincidentally, Putin was also interested in people’s life span, because according to the head of Ministry of Health Veronika Skvortsova “adding additional year to average life expectancy adds four percent to GDP”. What were the consequences of a science revolution and the appearance of a market of life? People’s lives have changed dramatically in all spheres; the market of life affected economy, politics, culture, religion... In 1961 Nikita Khrushchev said: “Gagarin flew into Space, but didn’t see any God there”. In the same way, when people understood that they could almost entirely control life and death, many stopped believing, and even abandoned religion all together, labeling it a conservative and primitive way ofthinking from the past. So the role

CONDITIONS ENCOU R A G I N G S E A R C H F O R IM MORTALITY IN R U SSI A IDEOLOGY OF A NEO-HUMAN

“...HUMANITY, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ITS HISTORY, WILL MAKE A FULLY MANAGED EVOLUTIONARY TRANSITION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A NEW SPECIES...” 2045 Strategic Social Initiative AMBITIOUS LEADER OF A COUNTRY

“...PUTIN WAS AWARDED 8TH DAN IN 2012 AND BECAME THE FIRST RUSSIAN TO HAVE BEEN AWARDED THE EIGHTH DAN IN JUDO...” by The International Judo Federation, 2012 LEADER OF A COUNTRY IS INTERESTED IN THE EXTENTION OF PEOPLE’S LIFESPAN

“...ADDING ADDITIONAL YEAR TO AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY ADDS FOUR PERCENT TO GDP...” The Head of Ministry of Health Veronika Skvortsova, 2013

“...IT IS NOT THAT IMPORTANT WHAT KIND OF CITIES WILL BE BUILT IN A FUTURE, MORE IMPORTANT ARE YOU GOING TO LIVE THERE OR YOU WILL DIE ALREADY...” ALEXEY TURCHIN, MIKHAIL BATIN

What was the turning point which led to the formation of the Body Preservation Community? At some point it became obvious that more and more people are choosing alternative ways to prolong their life. This was not only because it is easier, but also because everybody became terrified of being old. Although medicine made a huge step in aging diseases, aging still caused problems in Russia, and people were not able to take care of themselves, and the government was unwilling to assist with these problems. But still there are a lot of people who don’t want to use any artificial way for life extension, and yet they are motivated to live longer and they need support. Then the idea to create The University

“...IN THE BEGINNING OF THE 21 CENTURY AN AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE 100-120 YEARS ...” ILYA ILYICH MECHNIKOV

< Illustration by Vladimir Manyuhin

for theRetired People appeared: the Body Preservation Community is part of this community. I think it was one of the most amazing ideas in last century, considering all the scientific breakthroughs. Maybe, but it’s a bit of a shame, because this University could have been created much earlier. It was known that mental and physical activity has a positive effect on brains, and alot of aging problems are connected with a fact that people stop to have any education or sport already after 30 years. So even 100 years ago, people were able to live 120 years and it was not a big deal. But only in 2050 we created the University where people can get new professions after retirement, some of them are teaching in the same place. Major parts of the program are sport and a community. As an unexpected result a new culture appeared in our country. The University provides all the specialties, but most people choose creative industries. Thus, they started to express all the experience of their life in art, music and design. This is how the Culture of Olds appeared. And it even became fashionable to be old.Other people respect those who are proudly aging without any artificial way of life extension. You also have a publishing program, right? Oh yes, it is my favorite part. In the USSR, the idea about the Man of the Future was always in a company with an idea about the utopian idealistic society and bright future of a country. These ideas were clearly represented in visual arts and even more in literature. But, in the beginning of the 21stcentury, the idea of a neo-human appeared, but it was not clear in which world he would live. All the science fiction and movies described a dystopian view on future which was so much in contrast with all expectations of transhumanists and their manifesto. But it was not long until the first neo-utopia was published occasionally not by a writer but by a famous architect of that time. And he described a completely new picture of future based on a new quality of life. As he was not only a brilliant writer, but also an architect, he described a new city in small details. It opened a new era of neo-utopia in Russia. In order to highlight the best of science fiction, I started to look for new utopias and we published the best of them…

IMAGINATION IN ORBIT

Understanding of outer space myth differs through the time periods, but mythological thinking has given a powerful impetus to the imagination. It is clear that the belief in space and imaginary worlds has become a guiding light for science and technological development in USSR. What is the relation between imagination and knowledge in the creation of the myth of outer space? How myth and science influenced space exploration in the past? Why Russia is not using space as a social driver anymore? What could push people consciences about space today? The notion that our understanding and explorations of outer space are a kind of mythology is hardly new. In his book The World of the Soviet Man, Peter Wail explains that the Russian conscience has long revolved around two ideas: war and the church. While the idea of war was present through the entire history of the Soviet Union, the temple was much worse off, as churches were regularly demolished or turned to other purposes. In turn, without the cathedral as a paradigm, architecture could not achieve the hierarchical idea represented by the spire. Wail concludes that the vertical worldview of a Russian must end with the absolute, as the bearer of the immovable moral idea. Since the sky could not be empty, new celestial creatures had to replace the angels in the Russian imagination: astronauts (kosmonavty, or cosmonauts in Russian). Wail writes: â&#x20AC;&#x153;Cosmonauts, who ascended higher than anybody else, had to fill an in-between position, combining an approachability of a worker or a peasant with belonging to higher spheresâ&#x20AC;?1. This approach to a Soviet mythology of space is quite powerful. Implicit in Wailâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s understanding is a formalist concept of a myth2 , according to which myth is a â&#x20AC;&#x153;narrative about the gods or divinities in which folk believeâ&#x20AC;? 3, or â&#x20AC;&#x153;traditions about gods and heroesâ&#x20AC;? 4. As an embodied moral absolute, the cosmonaut simultaneously represents a divine being and an element of ideology. According to the formalist reading, in every myth, a hero appears to satisfy the utilitarian needs of the people. This fact betrays a need to belong to a complete

hierarchy that remains unchanged from primitive culturesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;which suggests that the thought processes of civilized and primitive men are fundamentally similar. However, before the twentieth century, such an analogy between modern and primitive man was impossible. In the history of culture, myth was treated as a specific worldview peculiar to archaic cultures, and thus studied as a product of human imagination in the early stages of cultural evolution.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;...THE BASIC FUNCTION OF ANCIENT MYTH WAS THE ACCUMULATION OF KNOWLEDGE....â&#x20AC;? While studying the minds of pre-literate peoples, Claude Levy-Strauss came to the conclusion that the imagination was the instrument primitive people used to discover the world5. The need to discover and explain the cosmos, life, and the nature of society brought about mythology. Indeed, certain scholars assert that the basic function of ancient myth was the accumulation of knowledge. However, the accumulation of knowledge and the cognition of reality are not entirely identical concepts. I would like to look precisely into the relation between imagination and knowledge in the creation of the mythology of outer space. I define myth as: R5 (5 .#0#.35) 5"/' (5 , .#0 5 )(- #)/-( --

Wail, Peret, and Alexandr Genis. 60th. The World of the Soviet Man. Moscow: Novoe literaturnoe obozrenie, 2001. p.10 Averintsev, Sergey. â&#x20AC;&#x153;The Analitic Psycology of C.G.Jung and The Creative Imaginationâ&#x20AC;? no. 3. Voprosi Literatury (1970). p. 115 3 Propp, Vladimir. The Historical Roots of the Wonder Tale. Leningrad, 1946. p.16 4 Trencsenyi-Waldapfel, Imre. Mitology. Budapest: Academiai Kiado, 1968. 5 LĂŠvi-Strauss, Claude. Mythologiques. 4 vols. USA: University of Chicago Press, 1990. 1

UTOPIAN MARS

Yakov Protazanov, film “Aelita” (1924)

Mikhail Volkov, “Bairo-Tun” (1929)

“Civil war in the heart of Mars“, M.Mizernuk picture for Nikolay Mukhanov novel “Flaming abyss” (1924)

SPACE UTOPIA

Boris Anibal, “Sailors of the Universe” (1940)

For the Bolsheviks and later Soviet writers and directors, space became the seat of Communist utopia. As a political utopia, it served two goals: to create new human beliefs and values, and to advance political concepts for the future. The utopian myth became the image of the future. As the idea of inhabitable space continued to preoccupy Soviet citizens, the main plot of the space utopias involved encountering aliens. Such stories were inspired by the Italian astronomer Giovanni Schiaparelli’s erroneous theory in 1877, that Martians built canals as analogy to Earth irrigation system. In her essay Science Fiction and Myth Creation in our Age, Tatiana Chernyshova explains how the imagination constructs something analogous to the human way of living on Mars. Myth-creating in ancient times worked in much the same way, through analogies. Even now we can see that triumph of science has not at all eliminated the myth-creating mode. Scientific theories also rely on an idea that “embodies the fundamental movement of cognition – from the familiar and the known to the unknown and the inexplicable”7. One of the first utopias based on the Martian canal myth was created by Porfiriy Infantev in 1901. It defends the conservative order, arguing that technologies will solve all social and economical problems. In the novel On the other planet, Infantev described a higher class of Martians who did not need to work because everything was done by high-level machines. Since very few people are needed to work this machine, Martians can devote all their time to the studies and traveling. Due to high-speed infrastructure there are no cities, and so Martians live in private villas and use a special pass to access all goods. Alexandr Bogdanov, a key figure in the early history of the Bolshevik movement, started the era of communist space utopias in 1908, with the science fiction novel Red Star about a socialistic Mars. The novel tells the story of

“..UTOPIA SERVED TO CREATE NEW HUMAN BELIEFS AND VALUES AND POLITICAL CONCEPTS...” Leonid, a scientist-revolutionary who travels to Mars to learn and experience their socialist system and to teach Martians about his own world. It is interesting that the Martian theme was considered not only as a backdrop for a utopian story, but as part of Marxist philosophy. Even Lenin wrote in one of his letters: “Friedrich Engels speaks about being over the limits of our field of vision, for example, about living on Mars and so on. Of course, such a thing? is an open question.” After the revolution, the Bolsheviks began to fight to export the revolution. In 1923, Alexei Tolstoy wrote the

Film “A trip to Mars” by Nikolay Prusakov, 1926

Chernyshova, Tatiana. “Science Fiction and Myth Creation in Our Age” 31, no. 3. Science Fiction Studies (November 2004): 345–357. 7

SPACE DISTOPIA The pressure of the Soviet political system under Stalin’s repressions gave rise to dystopia. The new trend in science fiction became to describe a state in which negative trends had prevailed. We can take as an example the history of the writer Larry Yang, who wrote the novel The Celestial Guest for one reader: Joseph Stalin. Larry sent chapters of his novel to Stalin anonymously, hoping to awaken the leader to the mistakes that had been made. In Yang’s novel, Martian spacecraft came at the Earth; through conversations with hospitable humans, it turns out that the conditions of soviet society had been deformed by an oppressive party administration. Although Larry never published his work, his identity was finally disclosed and he was subjected to repressions. The Cold War gave a rise to yet another type of dystopia, about a capitalist planet torn apart by problems and contradictions. Nikolai Nosov’s Neznayka on the Moon (1964), a children’s novel that incorporated elements of science fiction, described the journey of Neznayka and his friends to a Moon in the grip of capitalism. The heroes are not familiar with the concepts of money and private property, so they always get into trouble. It is extraordinary how, through such a fantastic dystopia, Nosov predicted all the negative consequences of capitalism that Russia would indeed face in the 1990s. Among them are merging of the oligarchy and the government; the major role played by fictitious capital; the persecution of trade unions; monopolies; significant unemployment; congestive, highyielding population advertising; conspicuous consumption; primitivization of cinema, television and painting; the neglect of basic scientific research and so on. RATIONALITY FOR SPACE

G.Valk illustrations to N.Nosov novel Neznayka on the Moon, 1965

Space myth originated on the basis of practice that is defined as «background» knowledge and skills, and as a specific activity, connecting words and actions (“ language game “).8 Cosmic myth was an expression of political, social conditions and values and the concept attitudes of society and individuals. Science fiction and utopia were a powerful language practice in the Soviet Union during the 20th century. So, if we use the classification of the philosopher John Austin, space fantasies are defined by reality and at the same time they are a speech act which means “doing by words.” 9 Tsiolkovsky described the principle of building a spacecraft in science fiction stories thereby determined the creation of real rockets made by S. Korolyov. Technological advances changed the reality through the language of performative utterances. Thus Gagarin’s phrase “Let’s go!” became catch-words. But the power of words lies not in the literal reality of the write, and it is endowed with performative force changing the reality of the Soviet man. Political and socio-cultural characteristics of rationality provide a significant impact on the scientific and technological knowledge. Socialist ideas were expressed in the space myth, and the space race has given impetus to the development of outer space that started in the 1950th. In the 1950s, the real cosmic breakthrough began. It

started with the first satellite (1957), the first reaching of the Moon’s surface (1959), and finally, the first cosmonaut (1961). All of these achievements were the pride of the Soviet Union; myth and rationality coincided, or met in the same dimension. On the one hand, Khrushchev’s interest in space was purely pragmatic. On the other, and as Istvan Csicsery-Ronay, Jr. explains in the essay Science Fiction and the Thaw, science fiction at that moment represented a popular literature that addressed the feelings of the young intelligentsia, for whom science equaled freedom from Stalinist superstition. A resident of the future space world must be a smart, cheerful, positive, and work for the good of civilization and future happiness. A party worker, a farmer, a proletarian or a simple servant could not become such a hero. No one who lived in ordinary reality could hope to achieve the status of a man of the future. The title of “new man” could only be claimed by the intelligentsia—specifically engineering, scientific and creative workers. As Csicsery-Ronay writes, “This new intelligentsia was being encouraged to take a leading role in the

transformation of Soviet society into a technologically advanced one, and even to lead it into a shining Communist future based not on hollow phrases but material-scientific achievements”10. Myth, which had inspired the classic science fiction writers of the revolutionary period only to be outlawed by Stalin, once again became topical but in a more pragmatic and rational way. Scientists were interested in the humanities?, and not only in poetry, but also social thought. And the opposite also held true, as many lyrics were inspired by scientific and technological utopias. Signs of the time included the film Nine Days of One Year (1962) and the Strugatsky brothers’s novel Monday begins on Saturday (1965):”What do you do?”- I asked. “Like all scientists - said nosed person. – I’m doing happiness for humans.” 11 Soviet science fiction experienced a golden age. It used simplification for the sake of myth-creation, to produce myth out of scientific knowledge. As Chernyshova writes, “Above all, the adoption of scientific knowledge by

New sources of energy A.Leonova, A.Sokolov, Moon power station, 1978

Rare minerals The Land of Crimson Clouds, Strugatsky Brothers, 1959

Creation of a new human Isaak Azimov, The Gods We Are, 1972

Scientific Laboratory Kirill Andreev, 1952

Kharkhordin, Oleg, and Oleg Volkov. Theory Practice. St.Peterburg: Europian University, 2008. p14 Austin, John. “Selected Stories.” In How to Act with Words, 13–138. Moscow: Idea-Progress, 1999. p.13 - 138 10 Csicsery-Ronay, Jr., Istvan. “Science Fiction and the Thaw.” Science Fiction Studies, November 2004. 11 Strugatsky, Boris, and Arkadiy Strugatsky. Monday Begins on Saturday. Moscow,1965. p.87 8

OUTER SPACE FOR CHILDREN

“All the guys say It’s nice to go to the Moon, But in order to go back To the first of September.”

“Create. Dream. Try!”

“From student models to space ships”

S.Baruzdin. “We were flying on a rocket” (art V.Gortinsky), 1963

“Those who has not collected scrap iron, would not be talen to the Moon”

“Again, you, a naughty child, is covered by space dust!...”

< A.Likhachev, postcards “The Son of Russia” devoted to Ury Gagarin, 1982 > “Connection was interrupted!”

I KNOW ONE THING: THAT I KNOW NOTHING In the Post-Soviet era, Russia found itself once more on the mythological level of space exploration. After all, the cosmos is still unknown. The latest space discoveries show only the Socratic paradox: “I know one thing: that I know nothing”. Even theoretically, we can explore only 5% of the Universe – so called ordinary matter. The rest of the total mass–energy of the universe contains 25% dark matter and 70% dark energy. Once more, myths appear to fill the lack of knowledge , for myths begin precisely as models of unknown reality. Russian culture saw an attempt to return to mythology, once successfully created by Science Fiction. Elana Gomel in the essay Science Fiction in Russia: From Utopia to New Age, declared a “proliferation of sects, healers, prophets, would-be messiahs, alien abductees. And conspiracy theories, coupled with economical and political instability, has unsettled the consequence reality to the point where Sci Fi’s cognitive estrangement does not work anymore, simply because nothing is too strange to be claimed as true” 15. In the West, science fiction after the “Golden age” of space

exploration tends to cyberpunk as a way of rethinking the utopian visions of previous epoch. Russian cyberpunk still does not exist, and the weak attempts to create it have been highly indifferent to science, despite the fact that computers and the Internet have become an important part of Russian youth culture. Instead, in Russia the undisputed rulers of Soviet-era science fiction have continued to reign in the Post-Soviet era. Instead of rethinking the legacy of Soviet science fiction, authors tend to continue their previous work. Even though half of Strugatsky duo, Arkady Strugatsky, died in 1991, the “Strugatsky school” continues to flourish, kept alive by the annual award The Bronze Snail. Series like The time of disciples (Vremya uchenikov) have also tended to continue the Strugatsky brothers’ plots: Russian authors wrote hundreds of sequels in the period 1990–2000. Other writers, including Maria Semenova, Nik Perumov, Uriy Nikitin, searched for their roots in fiction based on Slavic mythology and Pre-Moscovite Russian worlds as an attempt to look for the future in the past. Gomel writes: “The turn to ‘nativism’ in fantasy has more ominous connotation as well. Slavic fantasy has become a vehicle for nationalism, quasi-fascist world-view, which finds many overt and covert supporters in post-Communist Russia” 16.

Gomel, Elana. “Science Fiction in Russia: From Utopia to New Age.” Science Fiction Studies, November 1999. pp. 437 16 Gomel, 338 15

We are standing on the edge of new space discoveries. We can predict the development of space exploration with comparison with the Great geographical discoveries

UNDERGROUND BY NATHAN DE GROOT

< Print ads by Saatchi & Saatchi Russia for Schusev State Museum of Architecture in Moscow, 2013.

It is hard to imagine Moscow without underground infrastructure. Globally recognized for having one of the most elaborate and aesthetic metro networks, Moscow’s underground world actually reaches far beyond this: underneath the Russian capital a partly invisible complex system of rivers, secret metro lines, tunnels and bunkers has been created to regulate, support and complement life on the surface. Although many are told (and often believe) that sophisticated underground constructions solved logistic problems, the choice to go underground was more often than not prompted by predictions of danger and fear of disaster. As a result, an increasing number of artefacts in the urban fabric can be considered a form of petrified anxiety: a fearful response to apocalyptic predictions about the city’s future. The Moscow metro map deliberately shows much less than what’s going on underground. Much larger than the public transport network is a vast labyrinth of tunnels, sewage pipes, bomb shelters, secret metro lines, and covered rivers. Most of this remains hidden from the public, but a community of so-called “diggers” actively explores the underground territory of Moscow. According to Daniil Davydov, a digger with fifteen years of underground experience, ‘what we are able to see is only ten percent of the infrastructure that is present underground’. His digger

colleague Stanislav Kornev knows that of Moscow’s 180 rivers, approximately 160 run underground. Similarly, 167 of the 182 Moscow metro stations are located underground, of which 74 are deep (>30m) stations and 93 are low-depth. The private company Deluxe Bunker claims that there are more than 7000 bunkers scattered all over Moscow. According to the US Department of Defense, the mysterious Metro2 maintains a deep underground connection from the Kremlin to strategic military outposts in various ways.

< Kremlenagrad Castellum Urbis Moskvae Joan Blaeu, Le Grand Atlas 1663

<< Customized maps of Moscow from 1796 (left) and 1838 (right) - retromap.ru

< Neglinnaya river around 1800 - by A. Andreev.

RIVERS Today, water surfaces seem to play a limited role of importance in Moscow. As an artery, Moskva river crawls through the urban landscape. Together with ancient Yauza river east from the Kremlin, these are the most prominent waterways in the city. Relatively few smaller rivers, lakes, and artificial ponts can be found scattered over Moscow’s territory. In such a swampy area, however, one would expect more streams. Certainly, rivers were essential in the early years of Moscow’s urban development. An accurate map from the 17th century displays how the fortification of the Kremlin was surrounded by water. The settlement ‘Kremlenagrad’ appears to be a hilly island encircled by two fluvii: Moskva and Neglina. As such, the fort city Moscow (‘castellum urbis moskvae’) was constructed on a rather strategic location. The unpredictable nature of river Neglinnaya pushed urban expansion eastwards, since its westbank would often be flooded. As such, the fertile soil was only used for improvised agricultural purposes. Houses were mainly built within a walled city ‘Kitai Gorod’ in eastern direction, separated from the Kremlin by present-day Red Square, which commonly functioned as a market place. The map also reveals Lobnoye Mesto, or ‘Place of Skulls’, that was used for decrees (ukazes) from Tsars and other religious or ceremonial addresses. After a bifurcation, a part of the Neglinnaya river flowed along the Red Square. Taking a closer look at maps of Moscow from 1796 and

1838, it is shown how the Kremlin’s triangular island lost two from three surrounding waterways and thus became part of the mainland on the northbank of Moskva river. In the 18th century, the nobility moved to Moscow and started to build houses on Neglinnaya’s westbank. Initially, as a response to predictable seasonal distress, an open canal was constructed to prevent the area from future floods. After the fire and destruction of Moscow in 1812, however, the once clear water of Neglinnaya became strongly polluted. Hence, an underground construction was installed between 1817 and 1819 and a new street (Neglinnaya Ulitsa) appeared on top of it. Simultaneously, a new island in the Moskva river emerged. The disappearance of Neglinnaya may well be connected to plans for the construction of the Vodootvodny Canal, a new parallel stream along Moskva river, creating Bolotnaya Island or ‘Balchug’. In 1775, such plan is said to be developed by Matvey Kazakov, architect under Catherine the Great, who also proposed to flood unhabited farmland permanently in order to control future water level fluctuations. The plan was executed in the beginning of the 19th century and, like other underground constructions, was instigated by the threat of nature, especially unpredictable rivers. The Neglinnaya River remains a prime example of such an effort. It is part of a larger network of approximately 160 underground rivers that each help to prevent negative effects of extreme weather.

Over the last two centuries, however, the underground tunnel system could not avoid that water still caused severe problems in Moscow. In 1908, for instance, the great flood overstretched its capacity by far. As most underground rivers and drainage channels ended up in Moskva river, the system was overloaded and 16 square kilometer of the city was flooded. The Neglinnaya river also flooded occasionally, at least in 1949 and 1965, which prompted constructions of a wider underground canal in the 1970s. The new route was paved with series of concrete panels, while parts of the old brick tunnels that remain unused may still function as additional emergency space for water storage. Recently, at the point where Neglinnaya disects, a device was installed to regulate fluctuations of the water level and to dam a widespread fear for future flooding.

GOING UNDERGROUND It is not the best season to go underground, Stanislav Kornev explains, since showers in summer can occur rather sudden and cause an immediate rise of the water level in underground waterways. ‘It can be really dangerous as there is a limited number of exits.’ That day in early June, however, the weather forecast was positive enough to arrange a meeting. We met underground, in the middle of Tsvetnoy Boulevard’s platform, and went overground to walk for a few minutes in northern direction, along Olimpiyskiy Prospekt.

^ Flood of Neglinnaya River in June 1965. Photo by N. Rahmanova.

In a quiet part of the park, we occupy a bench to dress up for the occasion, including extended rubber boots, gloves, and head light. People strolling through the park notice our transformation, but seem not very much surprised or interested in our activity. ‘It would be good not to attract too much attention’, digger Kornev says, ‘people become suspicious sometimes and are afraid that I am a terrorist or something’. Only five meters away, what seems like an ordinary sewer lid appears to be our entrance to a new world. And within a few seconds, we stand with our feet in the Neglinnaya river. As the lid is put back in place, we find ourselves in a separate world, an underworld that is dark, chilly, and quiet. Somehow, I did not expect the water to flow, as rivers do. Underground, we hear the sound of water running to the Kremlin ending in two different locations in Moskva river. We follow the river. Kornev, a 22-year old digger, has a lot of underground experience. He tells us that he visited 112 underground rivers in Moscow. When I ask whether it is illegal to visit underground spaces, Kornev explains that it is technically allowed as long as you did not lift a lid, but once underground this seems hard to prove. In general, he rarely

< Map of Neglinnaya river. Kindly provided by Stanislav Kornev

> Schematic representation of Neglinnaya river’s underground forms.

Construction of new underground canal for Neglinnaya river in 1970s.

meets other people underground. ‘Sometimes you meet construction workers, who know about diggers and do not really care what we are doing.’ The police is allegedly not interested in controling underground spaces, except for special objects and selected properties. We roam through a labyrinth of tubes, persistently refered to as ‘collectors’ by our guide. Between the concrete walls of the 70s and the old brick stone tubes, there is some height difference which creates a small waterfall. With a rope we manage to go down and continue our journey. I notice how plastic bags are accumulated in places that obstruct the water, for instance around metal stairs leading to the world above. ‘This shows the height of the water after heavy rain.’ Kornev explains how other rivers, like Kapelka and Naprudnaya, feed the Neglinnaya river. In daily life, Kornev is a student in railway economics. Why did he start going underground? ‘It’s just fascinating’. He even celebrated his birthday once underground. It was in February, a good time of the year to be underground, as it remains relatively warm. ‘A few years ago ‘digging’ was a trend in Moscow and many former diggers are now ‘rooftopping’ - a new trend to take wicked pictures from high buildings - but I still like to go underground.’

^ Neglinnaya’s ‘waterfall’ Photo by Jelle Akkerman.

One with Neglinnaya Photo by Nathan de Groot.

METRO Going underground as a solution for jammed traffic was already proposed around 1900, but the Moscow authorities feared that increased mobility would affect the prices of their private property in the center of the city. The early plans for underground railways are said to be dismissed as officials predicted it would change the urban sprawl. Only in 1931 a decision was taken ‘to start immediately

drawn and existing infrastructure was unable to cope with this influx of traffic. After the introduction of the USSR, Muscovites became more mobile with average number of 145 trips per capita in 1913 compared to 328 in 1929, according to Abakumov. Therefore, infrastructure solutions were proposed in response to predictions about mobility, modernization and in order to “keep up” with advances in technology.

“... T H I S

Interestingly, Paperny notes how the history of the Moscow Metro was being written simultaneously with its construction, because only five weeks after the official opening a lavishly printed book entitled Kak my stroili metro (‘How we built the metro’) appeared. Furthermore, Y. Abakumov wrote a booklet about the Moscow Metro for an exhibition in New York in 1939, expanding Moscow’s legacy beyond the borders of the USSR. It gives a brief history of the construction process in the style of

IS THE GRAND PI C T U R E T HAT ONC E U P O N A TIME/ ROCKED T H E W RITERS WHO F O R E S AW IT ...” [with] the development of a project for underground railways to provide adequate and cheap transport for the public’. On September 23 a new State Committee (Metrostroy) was installed and the project started. In 1933 the government of the Soviet Union approved a rather ambitious and comprehensive plan for 10 lines with a total length of 80 kilometers. Only after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 10th line of Moscow’s metro system was constructed in 1995. Perhaps it was because a geological survey concluded, ‘Nowhere in the world had designers encountered such an adverse variety of soil’. Before the metro was introduced, Khrushchev recalls in his memoirs that the city grew rapidly while facilities lagged behind: ‘the streets weren’t well laid out, there was an insufficient sewage system, the sidewalks were mainly cobblestone and not even cobblestone everywhere.’ He muses that it remains ‘a terrible thing to recall even today, but that’s exactly how it was.’ While flocks of early automobiles and late droshkies started to conquer Moscow’s narrow streets in the beginning of the 20th century, the transportation system was mainly horse-

“.. . THE

METRO FUNCTIONED AS A CHURCH OF SOVIET CIVILIZATION. ... ”

a traditional fairytale, mixed with inevitable elements of Soviet propaganda. Summing up some great achievements, nothing is mentioned about the military aspects. In hindsight, however, as war engineer Utkin explained at the First Congress of Soviet Architects in 1937, it appeared that ‘all the grandiose activities for the reconstruction of Moscow, begun in 1931, were in essence the fulfillments of military demands.’ Furthermore, the depth of metro stations allowed these spaces to be used as air-raid shelters during World War II. As such, Moscow metro was built not only as public transport. In Khrushchev’s memoirs, Stalin decided to choose the deeper and more expensive version of the metro, explicitly anticipating a future war. In 1941, metro stations were actually used as air-raid shelters. The Council of Ministers moved its offices to the platforms of Mayakovskaya, where Stalin held public speeches on several occasions.

^ Tunnel near Kirov in 1935 Photo by Velikshanin, The Municipal Archives of Trondheim

< Moscow’s ‘Metro2’ Courtesy of Art. Lebedev Studio, 2013.

Moscowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Mayakovskaya station in war and peace. cc: flickr /gsz

^ Poster announcing ‘Switchday’, a new holiday - by Team Amplify Moscow, Archiprix 2013

> Flyer ‘Switchday’, a new holiday - by Team Amplify Moscow, Archiprix 2013

Idea for an underground mushroom farm designed by Fletcher Priest (2011)

Underground space near Solyanka, Moscow. Photo by anonymous digger.

Having only discussed three basic types of underground spaces, it should not be forgotten that Moscow’s underworld is assumably much larger than this. The few examples show that there is much more than meets the eye. Perhaps the library of Ivan the terrible is still hidden underground. And the ancient tunnel network underneath the Kremlin may not be completely destroyed during years of Soviet regime. Most likely, the utterly secretive Soviet tradition has prepared more underground surprises, like the supposed Ramenki emergency bunker, that according to rumors can host 15,000 people for 30 years. It could be that while the Palace of the Soviets was never realised partly because its instable soil and tunnel systems, there may still be an underground palace. As suggested by Time Magazine in 1992, a former KGB-officer leaked to a Russian newspaper about the existence of an underground city of about 500 acres, that included movie theaters and other entertainment. It remains difficult to determine where Soviet paranoia stops and Russian conspiracy theories begin. While most predictions try to bridge a chronological gap, Moscow’s underworld displays how predictions can have a geographical dimension too. Even to the extent that the main question asked is whether people believe it exists or not. This links back to the debate whether there is afterlife or not. After all, the traditional meaning of an underworld as a parallel and partly unknown world still applies, which can be both fascinating and scary. With a former KGB-officer having relatively absolute

power in Russia, chances are Moscow’s underground secrets will not see daylight anytime soon. Nevertheless, architects from team Amplify Moscow in the context of Archiprix 2013 predicted an interesting and provocative development. For 2014, they proposed a new holiday called Switch Day, which is planned on May 10, the day after Victory Day. On this date, citizens are supposed to go underground, while the army and officials are welcomed in public places. Practical issues aside, the speculative design of such project once again emphasizes how much can still be hidden underground. In Israel, a similar day opening up military premises already exists and has been proven successful. Indeed, temporary access may be a realistic first step in specific cases, which could lead to an even more dynamic life underground in Moscow too. While underground spaces are often products of fear, one could argue they do not need to permanently remind residents about ‘the unlikely event of an accident’. The bombings in Moscow metro have damaged the feeling of security in underground spaces. It is a weird paradox that the metro stations that can transform into shelters have transformed from zones of safety to territories of perceived threat. Simultaneously, some of Moscow’s derilict underground areas have been sanitised and former bunkers may currently function as carwash, gym, or karaoke bar. Elsewhere, underground parks, farms, and data safes are being developed. The question remains how Moscow can sustain underground spaces and mediate between hope and fear.

INHABITING PROPAGANDA

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s convert Moscow into an exemplary communist city!

When one sees huge volumentric letters on top of a building saying “Let’s convert Moscow into an exemplary communist city”, she doesn’t take it as operating propaganda but, instead, feels the atmosphere of history in it. However, we can benifit both from the power of propaganda and the tradition of text in the city. For this, we have to choose the right quotes, not the generic ones as before, but the much more specific and telling ones, those which uncover the ideology of city development characteristic to this or that period of time. We have to take the quotes which indicate the most significant moments or turns in the vision of Moscow’s future. By placing them on the facades of the buildings which happened to be the physical manifestations of the policy to which the quotes belong. By doing this, we are combining the monumental qualities of the sentences with the monumental qualities of the buildings on top of which they are places. ¨A modest four-story building is as different airplane differs from the contemporary spacecrafts.¨ construction experience in Moscow. Design, research, fabrication, installation, perspectives of the development. Y.Dychovichniy, V. Maksimenko. Moscow, Stroyizdat, 1985) Pushkin then he died and then Lermontov was born, after he died, were actually some overlaps between them and different characters erature also is kept in a different dimension from political history, or the art history. The history is something abstract which lives in the history books. The history of Russia of 20th and 21st centuries is extremely richon the radical changes of its own vision of the future. This is what made Moscow’s architectural landscape so diverse and interesting. These visions of the future were so strong that when one reads about a certain historical period she always has a temptation to overestimate the presence of these visions in the actual Soviet city. In reality, those things were often only small futuristic inclusions in the architectural landscape. Moreover, each period has a moment of inertia, and of course not everything could have been changed at once with the turn of the party line. This way, even after Khrushchev’s turn towards industrial housing, we can still see the traces of the Stalinist approach in what was actually built. When you read the documents which were part of the ideology around the avant-garde architecture of the 1920s and the political vision of that time, its radical view on the world makes you think that all at once Moscow had been changed from a traditional 19th century city into a modern city. This perception is also reinforced by contemporary culture. A lot of movies made in 1920s drew our the amount of the innovative in the city. For example, such tipick the new esthetics of dynamics, was always subject for exaggeration on the movies. All the cinematic tricks were used to create as “Tretya Meshyanskaya” (1927, dir. Abram Room), for example, even if in reality Moscow was not as much packed with the private transport [1]. residential buildings in which this ideology has manifested, the communal houses, nowadays are often neglected by the contemporary government and not noticed by the citizens. The visions of the

future very quickly become outdated. They do have a second chance though. At some point the buildings and the past ideology starts to form part of the history and become appreciated because of that. The physical world around us is exactly the manifestation of history and we only need to be able to read it. Part of the people refuse to read it since it brings back the memories of the Soviet times, the other part is not able to read it, being to young to know what each building stands for. Nevertheless, the city demonstrates the only show the history up to this particular moment when they were created, and the city shows as well how the later period of time was interpreting the previous one. One can see whether during the later period of time people were perceiving the earlier one, as a treasure which needs to be protected or as a mistake that needs to be erased. Thus, the city consists of different layers of history, and each of them represents a certain period of history with its own political, economical and cultural context. Different periods of history produced different amount of architecture. Of course, the number of avant-garde buildings can’t be compared with the amount of industrially produced buildings. Nevertheless, all of them at the moment when they were created both of them were envisioned as the only possible concepts of Moscow’s future development. If they were not interchanging each other that often, Moscow’s landscape would have been probably very monotonous. One can imagine the whole Moscow built only with avant-garde architecture, or uniquely with the Stalinists palaces.

“THE PHYSICAL WORLD AROUND US IS EXACTLY THE MANIFESTATION OF HISTORY AND WE ONLY NEED TO BE ABLE TO READ IT”. However big the intentions were, they never were changing the city fully and at once. Looking at the photos of Moscow at that time, “new man” were only single touches of the future in an old town. They may have looked even out of place, and time was needed for them to become fully incorporated in the city. Added by the new layers of the history, these futuristic inclusions faded and become part of the historical landscape. Only later they became again appreciated by a group of specialists who drew attention to their architectural qualities. It resulted into new preservation organizations such as “Archnadzor” (created in 2009), for example. The same happened to Stalinist architecture. If the Stalin’s seven sisters were almost single high-rise buildings in the Moscow’s landscape, now, on the background of Moscow city skyscraper cluster they stopped being so striking just because of their scale. Nevertheless, those are the layers that add to the diversity of Moscow’s landscape.

Leninism is our manifesto

Communism will win!

The importance of Tula for the Republic is enourmous / V.I. Lenin/

¨A modest four-storey building is as different from a today’s panel 16 to 25 storey house as the first airplane is from a contemporary spacecraft.¨ Y.Dychovichniy, V. Maksimenko, Ready-built Reinforced-Concrete Unified Skeleton: Construction Experience in Moscow. Design, Research, Fabrication, Installation, Perspectives of the Development. Moscow, Stroyizdat, 1985 For school kids in Russia the history is very simple – first there was Pushkin, then he died, and then Lermontov was born. After that, he died finally, and Dostoyevsky was born. Often kids do not know that there were actually some overlaps between them, and different characters of epochs might have had influenced each other. The history of literature is also kept in a different compartment from the political history, or the art history. The history is something abstract which lives in the history books. The history of Russia of 20th and 21st centuries is extremely rich on the radical changes of its own vision of the future. This is what made Moscow architectural landscape so diverse and interesting. These visions of the future were so strong that when one reads about a certain historical period, she always has a temptation to overestimate the presence of these visions in the actual Soviet city. In reality, those things were often only small

futuristic inclusions in the architectural landscape. Moreover, each period has a moment of inertia, and of course not everything could have been changed at once with the turn of the party line. This way, even after Khrushchev’s turn towards industrial housing, we can still see the traces of the Stalinist approach in what was actually built. When you read the documents which were part of the ideology around the avant-garde architecture of the 1920s and the political vision of that time, its radical view on the world makes you think that all at once Moscow had been changed from a traditional 19th century town into a modern city. This perception is also reinforced by contemporary culture. A lot of movies made in the1920s draw our attention to the rapid progress, especially related to the city. In the films of new genre of “city symphonies” film directors always emphasized the amount of the innovations in the city. For example, such topic as traffic, closely related to both the technological progress and the new esthetics of dynamics, was always subject for exaggeration in the movies. All the cinematic tricks were used to create the atmosphere of a non-stop movement on the cars in such films as “Tretya Meshyanskaya” (1927, dir. Abram Room), for example, even if in reality Moscow was not as much packed with the private transport. However strong the feeling of the new and the official ideology seemed to be at those times from the documents

Above: Long life to the Communist party of the Soviet Union Below: Towards the victory of communism

Above: Glory to the Soviet People Below: Baltika. Russian beer brand

Socialization of satisfaction of everyday needs will optimise the use of women’s productive forces. Leonid Sabsovich, Socialist cities. 1930

An essential condition for the well-being is socialization of “byt” and abolishement of any form of the family life. L. Sabsovich, Soviet Union in 15 years, 1929

1 00

Architectural arrangement of the capital must fully reflect the grandeur and beauty of the socialist epochâ&#x20AC;?. Resolution of the Central Commute of All-Union Communist Party on the General Plan of Reconstruction of Moscow 1935

Architectural arrangement of the capital city must fully reflect the grandeur and beauty of the socialist epoch. Resolution of the Central Commute of All-Union Communist Party. 1935

101

1 02

Mass produced elements should represent at least 80 per cent of the whole nomenclature of the elements. Instructions for designing the panel housing units. 1977

103

PRESERVING PROTEST P RESERVI NG P R O TEST

THE FUTURE OF M MOSCOW’S COUNTERCULTURAL HERITAGE T HE F U T URE OF OSCOW’S CO UNT ERCUL T URAL H ERI T AG E

1 04

A prediction is a statement about the future. A protest is a statement of objection about a perceived future. Protest and prediction exist in a dialect similar to that of modernization and preservation, each has a tenuous relationship with the past and future. Throughout history, forms of protest have been significant agents of social and political change, from underground countercultural movements to mass public demonstrations. These movements push societal progress and leave historical imprints on the city. The term “Avant Garde”, borrowed from the military term for “front guard” is used to describe creative movements which push boundaries and reject the accepted norms of the current culture. This research centers on Moscow, a city with a unique past and current history of protest. Russia has a difficult relationship with past and future. Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, the ambition of the nation has flipflopped between an idealization of future and of past. Often the perspective of the government has not aligned with the views of citizens, which has contributed to much of the political turmoil which marked this time period. At the same time, highly ideological eras produced some of the most significant innovation in art, architecture, literature and science of the 20th century. Therefore, motivations of protest, be it a rejection of past or future, were incredible stimulus and inspiration for critical innovation which shaped the nation’s future. When we think of protest, we tend to think of massive crowds in demonstration against a political entity. In its most extreme public form, a protest becomes a revolution. What is less obvious is that these public manifestations of opposition are actually fueled by a deeper, private movement of dissidence. It is this critical undercurrent of opposition which has a broader, and more significant impact on society and its progress. Russia’s history of protest is a testament to this - from the secret societies which built up the opposition to overthrow the Czar to dissident kitchen conversations in the Soviet Union to underground art and literary movements which inhabited private spaces in avoidance of state censorship of public expression. Underground movements such as these are a form of counterculture - the practice of rejection against mainstream societal norms and a private form of protest.

REVOLUTION A revolution begins as an underground private oppositional movement that eventually gains momentum and erupts into the public sphere. In early 19th century Russia, anti-Tsarist sentiments were cultivated in secret societies. They envisioned a socialist future without the autocracy of a Tsar and a society without serfdom. In St. Petersburg, an oppositional group called the Union of Salvation was formed on ambitions for political reform. The Union later divided into the Northern and Southern societies, but their common opposition fueled the Decembrists Revolution of 1825. 3,000 rebels came together in Senate Square with the objective to overthrow the imperial government by force. Although the revolution was unsuccessful, the event marked a shift in the Russian revolutionary movement and a prediction of a more significant revolution to come. The beginning of the pursuit of the future. The public eruptions of opposition in the uprisings of 1825, 1905 and 1917 were the product of deeper, private rebellion which existed in the form of secret societies, oppositional literature and the circulation of underground media spreading messages of protest against the widespread oppression under the tsar. Strict censorship imposed by the government to limit this activity only strengthened its underground existence. Secret assemblies met in private residences, operated cells within factories, universities and even set up printing presses in secluded locations far from the city.1 They published essays, circulated pamphlets and newsletters, and composed manifestos which strengthened their collective opposition, which eventually gained enough strength to erupt in public in the form of the Revolution.

1. Yarmolinsky, Avrahm. Road to Revolution: A Century of Russian Radicalism, New York: The Macmillan Company, 1956.

105

“Long live the avant garde of the Revolution!” < Born from the earlier countercultural art movements of Futurism and Dadaism, the artistic Avant Garde had emerged at the height of Russian revolutionary fervor. In the early years of the new Soviet republic, a young generation of designers were commissioned to design the graphic propaganda and built structures which would demonstrate the emancipation of the workers’ state. Throughout the 1920s and early 1930s, architecture became the means of transformation of society towards a future collectivized life. As the newly established Soviet state was rethinking the future of society, the Avant-Garde was reinventing the everyday.

FUTURE The Avant-Garde was born at the height of Russian revolutionary fervor, when the future communal utopia seemed attainable if only society could transform quickly enough. By the means of radical experimentation, artists, poets, and architects were striving to foresee, and to realize this utopia. As the newly established Soviet state was rethinking the future of society, the Avant-Garde was reinventing the everyday. By transforming daily life (“byt”), society would also transform from individuals to communal, social beings. These ambitions were reflected in Constructivist architecture during the 1920s and 30s. New ideas, new spaces for the new life of the new man. After the revolution, an extensive propaganda initiative was instituted by the new Soviet state. From political propaganda to cultural experimentation, the ambition was to display the incredible transformation of Communist life as the utopia of an enlightened future. Agitprop trains crossed the country disseminating socialist ideology through performance and printed material. The Bolshevik party seized control of the socialist newspaper Pravda and by censoring all other printed media, made it the only voice heard by the masses.

“...OUR WORLD OF ART HAS BECOME NEW, NONOBJECTIVE, PURE. EVERYTHING HAS VANISHED, THERE REMAINS A MASS OF MATERIAL, FROM WHICH THE NEW FORMS WILL BE BUILT...”

1 06

The ambitions of the state ideology were reflected in architecture as new building typologies were necessary to accommodate and facilitate the new socialist life. Many commissions were given to young, innovative architects that had previously been marginalized in the prerevolutionary academia. In 1920, the Vkhutemas school was established in Moscow as the state art and technical university under a state decree for the high quality of technical training and innovation. A new generation of designers imagined architecture as a means to create the new life. “They took every aspect of traditional architecture and tried to change it. For example, historical architecture until the beginning of the 20th century was according to gravity, and it showed this sense of gravity. Avant Garde architects experimented with the ideas of architecture which is against gravitation.”4

Revolution propaganda poster, circa 1920

> 4. Khrustaleva, Marina. discussion on the Avant Garde, Strelka Institute 29 April 2013.

New building typologies emerged as ‘new spaces for the new life of the new man’. Considered ‘social condensers’,

< “Monument to the Third International” Vladimir Tatlin, 1919 unbuilt.

these buildings for the everyday where designed with an ambitious idea of collectivized life which could be enabled by the buildings. Communal houses were designed to minimize private life and promote communal life, with minimal apartment spaces and communal service facilities. Workers’ clubs were built as places for social and cultural production. Citizens were intended to visit the clubs for physical and mental exercise, as part of the constant pursuit of personal improvement and aspiration to become the “New Man”.

“AVANT GARDE ARCHITECTS EXPERIMENTED WITH THE IDEA OF ARCHI TECTURE AGAINST GRAVITATION.” - Marina Khrustaleva From 1917 to 1932, Moscow was an laboratory of Constructivist architectural experimentation. Hundreds of buildings were constructed under the influence of the Avant Garde. Today, many of the most iconic Avant Garde buildings stand as shells of a former utopia, many are dilapidated, caught a web of legal battles and ownership disputes, some facing demolition. They are edifices of a past future rooted in a rejection of history, and a determination to enable a critical social discourse through the design of its space. ‫ޔ‬ “City of the Future”, George Krutik, 1928 Graduation Project, Vkhutemas.

< “Communal House”, Nikolai Ladovski, 1924

107

The pursuit pursuit of of the the future future existed existed in in Russia Russia from from 1825 1825 to to The 1932. It It began began in in the the revolt revolt of of the the Decembrists, Decembrists, ‘Russia’s ‘Russia’s 1932. first political political dissidents’ dissidents’ and and ended ended with with the the selection first Residentialselection of Boris Boris Iofan’s Iofan’s neoclassical neoclassical design design for for the the Palace Palace of of the the of Institutional Soviets in Moscow and a departure from human scale of Soviets in Moscow and a departure from human scale of Communal architecture. architecture. Commercial The 1932 1932 Palace Palace of of the the Soviets Soviets competition competition marked marked the the The Residential end of the Revolutionary period in Russia as ambitious end of the Revolutionary period in Russia as ambitious Avant Garde Garde proposals proposals were were denied denied in inInstitutional preference of of aa Avant preference Communal Commercial

< Human Human scale scale <

1 08

Avant Garde Garde architecture, architecture, Avant building scale of the the building scale of community community

REV OL U

RE TU

REV OL U

RE TU

< <

NO FU

Garages

ANTI-FUTURE ANTI-FUTURE

NO FU

Garages

Department Stores

< <

A N T I-F U

Factories

Factories Department Stores

ANT I-F U

Dormitories

5. Cohen, Cohen, Jean-Louis, Jean-Louis, The The 5. Future of of Architecture Architecture Future since 1889, 1889, London: London: since Phaidon. 2012. Phaidon. 2012.

Soviet Imperial Imperial Soviet architecture, departure architecture, departure from human and from human and community scale scale community

RE TU

Educational Facilities Educational Facilities

RE TU

Institutions

Clubs Clubs

N TIO

RE TU

Apartment Buildings Institutions

monumental, neoclassical design representing N representing monumental, neoclassical FU power and stability. From design this on, TIO point power and stability. From this point into on, Soviet architecture was transformed architecture transformed aSoviet demonstration of was power and excess,into the a demonstration powerrather and excess, the decadence of the of present than the decadence of the present rather than the pursuit of the future. A representation of pursuit ideological of the future. A representation of deeper shifts. The selected design, deeper ideological The selected design, chosen by a jury ledshifts. by Stalin, was massive chosen by a jury ledenraging by Stalin, was massive neoclassical tower, members of the neoclassical enraging members of the Avant Gardetower, around the world. Sigfried Avant Garde around the world. Sigfried Gideon, leader of CIAM, declared the decision Gideon, of the CIAM, the decision “a direct leader insult to spiritdeclared of Revolution and “a direct insultplan to the Revolution and 5 the Five-year - aspirit tragicofbetrayal.” Today, 5 the Five-year plan a tragic betrayal.” Today, Moscow’s Avant Garde buildings are largely Moscow’s and Avant Garde buildingsfrom are largely forgotten facing destruction neglect, forgotten andand facing dilapidation poordestruction from neglect, dilapidation and management. It poor seems management. It seems as though the current as though theicons current state of these of state of these icons Constructivism is a of mirror Constructivism a mirror of the decay of aisvisionary of the decay of a progress. visionary pursuit of future

RE TU

Apartment Buildings

SLEEPING

<< Map Mapof ofAvant AvantGarde Garde architecture architectureininMoscow Moscow by by building buildingtype. type. Source Sourceof ofinformation: information: MosKonstruct MosKonstruct

> > Plan diagram of Pravda Workers” Club, K. Plan diagram of Pravda1928 Melnikov, Workers” Club, K. Melnikov, 1928

EXERCIZING STUDYING EATING SOCIALIZING

“CULTURE “CULT UR E ONE ONEAND AND CULTURE CULT UR E TWO T W OEXIST E XISTIN IN OPPOSITION: O PPOSI T I ON: ONE O N EREACHES RE A CHE S FOR FO R THE THE FUTURE..THE F UT U RE ..THE OTHER O THE R TRANSFORMS T R ANSFO RMSTHE THE FUTURE FU TUR E INTO I NT OETERNITY ETE RN ITY WHILE WHILE TURNING T UR NI N GITS ITSGAZE G A ZE BACK ON THE PAST.” BACK ON T HE P A ST.” 6 -- Vladimir Vlad i m i r Paperny Pa pern y 6

In his book, Architecture in the Age of Stalin, Vladimir In his book, Architecture in of thethe Age of Stalin, Paperny describes the period Avant GardeVladimir as PapernyOne describes theeraperiod of the Avant GardeTwo. as Culture and the of Stalin’s rule as Culture Culture and the era of Stalin’s rule as Culture These twoOne cultures are opposed to each other in that Two. Culture One is defined the pursuit of future These two cultures are by opposed to each other while in that Culture theby present as eternity, ‘the future CultureTwo Onedeclares is defined the pursuit of future while postponed indefinitely’. “Culture declares‘the itselffuture the Culture Two declares the presentOne as eternity, beginning history. Culture Two declares itself the postponedofindefinitely’. “Culture One declares itself the 6 end of history.” This notion wasTwo reflected in the shift of beginning of history. Culture declares itself the architectural design, the was Avant Garde movement end of history.”6 Thisfrom notion reflected in the shift of based on modernism to the architectural design,and fromexperimentation the Avant Garde movement neoclassical tradition ofand Soviet Imperial Style.to A protest based on modernism experimentation the of the future.tradition of Soviet Imperial Style. A protest neoclassical

of the future. In 1932 the Central Committee of the Communist Party declared that all artistic and literary groups would In 1932 the Central Committee of the Communist be eliminated and replaced by official state unions for Party declared that all artistic and literary groups would creative professions. From this point on, art, architecture, be eliminated and replaced by official state unions for creative professions. From this point on, art, architecture,

PERFORMING

SOCIALIZING CULTURING

SANITIZING

“The i m po r ta n t t hin g about a club i s th a t the m asabout s of t h e “The important thing amemb club eis the of ly the r sthat mu st bemass direct members directly involv e d.must T h e ybe mus t not involved. notneled appr o a c h They i t o r must be chan approach it or be channeled into it f r o m th e out s ide as into the outside mer eitefrom n te r ta inm en t . Thas ey mere entertainment. They themse l v e s mu st find in it t h e themselves must find in it the maxim u m se l f expres s ion.” maximum self expression.” - Eli Li ssi tsky - Eli Lissitsky

Plan diagram of the of the Plan diagram Communal HouseHouse of Communal of the Textile Institute, I. the Textile Institute, I. Nikolaev, 1932. 1932. a “machine Nikolaev, a “machine for creating urban urban peopole” for creating peopole”

literature, music and theatre had to conform to official literature, music and theatre had to conform to official standards. The revolutionary experimentation and standards. The revolutionary experimentation and radicalism of the early Soviet era was replaced by an radicalism of the early Soviet era was replaced by an ideology of power and control. The state aesthetic shifted ideology of power and control. The state aesthetic shifted from the Avant Garde to monumental and domineering. from the Avant Garde to monumental and domineering. By imposing sweeping restrictions against intellectualism, 6. Paperny, Vladimir. By imposing sweeping restrictions against intellectualism, 6. Paperny, Vladimir. innovation and imagination, the state rejected the future it Architecture theofAge of innovation and imagination, the state rejected the future it Architecture in the in Age been building since the Revolution. Boston: Cambridge hadhad been building since the Revolution. Stalin,Stalin, Boston: Cambridge University University Press, Press, 2002. 2002. same time, Soviet regime rejected At At thethe same time, the the Soviet regime also also rejected the the pp. 31.pp. 31. nation’s history. anti-religious campaign nation’s history. TheThe statestate anti-religious campaign escalated its prohibition of religious activity. Traditions, escalated its prohibition of religious activity. Traditions, mythologies folklores of past the past lost mythologies andand folklores of the werewere lost as theas the state enacted a widespread rewriting of history. state enacted a widespread rewriting of history. The The built environment a visible victim to rejection this rejection built environment waswas a visible victim to this of history. In total, more thanthan 70007000 buildings and 368 of history. In total, more buildings and 368 7 7 churches were demolished between 19171917 and 1953. churches were demolished between and 1953. 7.Harris, Edmund. This architectural era era came to antoend withwith Khrushchev’s This architectural came an end Khrushchev’s “Ecclesastical 1954 speech calling for more efficient building methods, 7.Harris, Edmund. 1954 speech calling for more efficient building methods, Architecture.” Moscow industrial production, and and the ‘elimination of superfluity’ “Ecclesastical industrial production, the ‘elimination of superfluity’ at Crisis Point Moscow II, in building design. Later, Moscow Mayor Luzkhov wouldwould Heritage Architecture.” in building design. Later, Moscow Mayor Luzkhov 2009, pp. 35-47. make the reconstruction of historical buildings including Heritage at Crisis Point II, make the reconstruction of historical buildings including several cathedrals a major priority during his time in office 2009, pp. 35-47. several cathedrals a major priority during his time in office in the 1990s. in the 1990s.

109

1825 Decembrist Revolt

1905 Moscow Uprising

1917 October Revolution

1931 Palace of the Soviets Competition

1955 Khruschevʼs Speech “On the elimination of superfluity in design and construction”

1989 USSR Break Up

SOVIET MAY 1 PARADES AGIT PROP

1800

ANTI-WEST

ANTI-FUTURE

1900 SECRET SOCIETIES

1925

BOLSHEVIKS

2010 State Restitution of Church Property

MAY 1 PARADES ANTI-WAR

AVANTGARDE SOVIET EMPIRICAL STYLE

FUTURE

2000 Christ the Savior Church reconstruction completed

MASS PRODUCTION

1950

RECONSTRUCTION

NO FUTURE 1975

2000 PROTEST

KITCHEN TALKS WORKERS OPP

SAMIZDAT

NEPMEN

CHRONICLE OF C.E. STRATEGY 31

POETRY READINGS SOTS ART

VOINA

APT ART

2012 Pussy Riot Punk Prayer

MOSCOW CONCEPTUALISM PAPER ARCHITECTURE

1958 1974 Monument to Vladimir Bulldozer Mayakovsky built Exhibition

“THE KITCHEN TABLE BECAM BECAME A “T HE K I TCHEN TABLE E A BACK STAGE SOCIAL SPACE FO FOR BA CK S TAGE SO CIAL SPACE R SUCCESSIVE GENERATIONS OF THE S U CCES SIVE G ENERATIO N S O F TH E IINTELLIGENTSIA” N T EL L I GENTSIA” 88

PRE-REVOLUTION PRIVATE OPPOSITION OPPOSITION

SECRET SECRET SOCIETIES SOCIETIES

DISSIDENT DISSIDENT LITERATURE LITERATURE

PUBLIC OPPRESSION OPPRESSION UNDER CZAR CZAR UNDER

REVOLUTION REVOLUTION

PUBLIC

OPPOSITION

LOYALTY

KITCHEN TALKS KITCHEN

PROPAGANDA

SAMIZDAT/ LITERATURE LITERATURE AND POETRY AND UNDERGROUND UNDERGROUND ART ART

1 10

1991 Anti-Soviet Protests

SOVIET ERA PRIVATE

1993 Constitutional Crisis

PRO-SOVIET RALLIES STATE MANDATED PROTEST PROTEST

POST-SOVIET ERA PRIVATE

PUBLIC OPPOSITION PROTESTS

ARTISTIC EXPRESSION REJECTION OF INSTITUTIONS

LOYALTY

2005 Left Front

2009 ArchNadzor

2004 Moscow Architectural Preservation Society

PRESE PRIVATE OPPOSITION

PROTEST

INSULAR INITIATIVES / EXHIBITIONS

Public Display, Private Dissent Public Display, Private Dissent An integral part of maintaining the state ideology was An integral part of maintaining the state ideology was state-mandated public demonstrations which protested state-mandated public demonstrations which protested conditions of the world outside the Soviet Union. After conditions of the world outside the Soviet Union. After the revolution, Communist ideology was forcefully spread the revolution, Communist ideology was forcefully spread by State propaganda. In cities, public space became the by State propaganda. In cities, public space became the State-controlled platform for demonstrations of loyalty. State-controlled platform for demonstrations of loyalty. May 1, or the Day of International Solidarity of the May 1, or the Day of International Solidarity of the Working Class, was celebrated with compulsory parades Working Class, was celebrated with compulsory parades glorifying the Soviet Union. Flags and banners displayed glorifying the Soviet Union. Flags and banners displayed provocative text and imagery to inspire enthusiasm and a provocative text and imagery to inspire enthusiasm and a collectivized spirit. collectivized spirit. During the mid 20th century, similar tactics were used as During the mid 20th century, similar tactics were used as a means to portray the Soviet Union as idyllic compared a means to portray the Soviet Union as idyllic compared to the injustice and obscenity of the outside world. Antito the injustice and obscenity of the outside world. Antiwar and anti-nuclear weapon messages rejected projected war and anti-nuclear weapon messages rejected projected behavior of the West. Pro-workers’ and womens’ rights behavior of the West. Pro-workers’ and womens’ rights slogans emphasized the progressive nature of the Soviet slogans emphasized the progressive nature of the Soviet Union. By mobilizing Soviet citizens against an external Union. By mobilizing Soviet citizens against an external enemy, the State could perpetuate its own ideology. enemy, the State could perpetuate its own ideology. In this way, public space became the space of In this way, public space became the space of State manipulation and control. It was active with State manipulation and control. It was active with demonstrations, but the criticism targeted the outside demonstrations, but the criticism targeted the outside -- the Other that was not the Soviet Union. Therefore, -- the Other that was not the Soviet Union. Therefore, opposition to the Soviet regime was unexpressed in opposition to the Soviet regime was unexpressed in public. Amidst strong state propaganda and increasing public. Amidst strong state propaganda and increasing restrictions against artistic experimentation, private restrictions against artistic experimentation, private opposition emerged in the underground. Communal opposition emerged in the underground. Communal

ENT OLUTION PUBLIC PUBLIC RESTRICTIONS OPPRESSION ON PUBLIC UNDER CZAR EXPRESSION INCREASED PENALTIES FOR VIOLATIONS

REVOLUTION LOYALTY

SOVIET ERA PRIVATE

PUBLIC

SAMIZDAT/ LITERATURE AND POETRY UNDERGROUND ART

LOYALTY

PROPAGANDA: AGITPROP, PRO-SOVIET RALLIES STATE MANDATED PROTEST

8. Viola, Lynne. 8. Viola, Lynne. Contending with Stalinism: Contending with Stalinism: Soviet Power and Popular Soviet Power and Popular Resistance in the 1930s. Resistance in the 1930s. Ithaca: Cornell University Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2002. pp. 40. Press, 2002. pp. 40.

As free expression was made obsolete in public space, As free expression was made obsolete in public space, dissent was fostered behind closed doors, in private spaces. dissent was fostered behind closed doors, in private spaces. The informal practice of kitchen conversations was a The informal practice of kitchen conversations was a common outlet for citizens to express their opposition. common outlet for citizens to express their opposition. “The private sphere was in many cases strengthened as a “The private sphere was in many cases strengthened as a result of the swelling and oppressive encroachments of the result of the swelling and oppressive encroachments of the public sphere.”6 public sphere.”6

9. Komaromi, Ann. “The 9. Komaromi, Ann. “The Material Existence of Material Existence of Soviet Samizdat”, Slavic Soviet Samizdat”, Slavic Review, Vol. 63, No. 3. Review, Vol. 63, No. 3. (Autumn, 2004), pp. 597(Autumn, 2004), pp. 597618. 618.

Samizdat, the practice of ‘self-publishing’ or making and Samizdat, the practice of ‘self-publishing’ or making and distributing literature that was banned by the State became distributing literature that was banned by the State became an important method of rebellion against government an important method of rebellion against government censorship in the 1960s. The texts were both historical censorship in the 1960s. The texts were both historical and contemporary assemblages, some politically oriented and contemporary assemblages, some politically oriented and some not. Produced by hand or on privately owned and some not. Produced by hand or on privately owned typewriters, samizdat was a physical representation of the typewriters, samizdat was a physical representation of the private space of dissent in the Post-Stalin Soviet Union. private space of dissent in the Post-Stalin Soviet Union. Its inherently rough and imperfect material form was a Its inherently rough and imperfect material form was a testament to the process of its making and the rejection of testament to the process of its making and the rejection of official publication. “Highly circulated typescripts became official publication. “Highly circulated typescripts became brittle and worn from handling, the physical page seemed brittle and worn from handling, the physical page seemed as embattled and fragile as the Soviet author himself ”.9 as embattled and fragile as the Soviet author himself ”.9 It also represented an unfinished or in process state - the It also represented an unfinished or in process state - the ongoing discourse of dissent. Not unlike aging and wear ongoing discourse of dissent. Not unlike aging and wear of use of a building. of use of a building.

POST-SOVIET ERA PRIVATE

PUBLIC OPPOSITION

OPPOSITION

KITCHEN TALKS,

kitchens became venues of political discussions, often kitchens became venues of political discussions, often fostering an Anti-Soviet sentiment. Artist communities fostering an Anti-Soviet sentiment. Artist communities operated unofficially against the restrictions of the Soviet operated unofficially against the restrictions of the Soviet government. The artwork incorporated trash, political government. The artwork incorporated trash, political propaganda, kitsch, and political messages in opposition to propaganda, kitsch, and political messages in opposition to the Soviet regime. the Soviet regime.

PROTESTS

ARTISTIC EXPRESSION REJECTION OF INSTITUTIONS

Examples of worn Examples of worn Samizdat publications vs. Samizdat publications vs. the worn facade of the the worn facade of the Narkomfin building today Narkomfin building today ‫ޕ‬ ˅

PRESENT PRIVATE OPPOSITION

PROTEST

INSULAR INITIATIVES / EXHIBITIONS

PUBLIC RESTRICTIONS ON PUBLIC EXPRESSION INCREASED PENALTIES FOR VIOLATIONS

LOYALTY

111

BACK AND AND FRONT FRONT STAGE STAGE SPACES SPACES OF OF PROTEST PROTEST BACK In 2012, 2012, Moscow Moscow witnessed witnessed the the largest largest public public In demonstrations since since the the end end of of the the Soviet Soviet Union, Union, when when demonstrations citizens gathered in public space to protest against the citizens gathered in public space to protest against the government’s manipulation manipulation of of the the presidential presidential election. election. government’s Since that that time, time, several several new new laws laws and and restrictions restrictions against against Since public expression and increasingly severe punishments for public expression and increasingly severe punishments for violations have have been been enacted, enacted, signaling signaling aa general general decline decline violations of freedom freedom in in public public space. space. It It seems seems that that this this declining declining of freedom is ambiguous, it is no longer clear what is and freedom is ambiguous, it is no longer clear what is and is not allowed in public. The Pussy Riot incarcerations is not allowed in public. The Pussy Riot incarcerations after their ‘punk prayer’ performance in Christ the Savior after their ‘punk prayer’ performance in Christ the Savior Cathedral in February 2012 and the ongoing trials for Cathedral in February 2012 and the ongoing trials for protesters prosecuted for violence which erupted during protesters prosecuted for violence which erupted during the May 6 2012 rally are harsh examples of authority the May 6 2012 rally are harsh examples of authority crackdown on public expression. Because of this people crackdown on public expression. Because of this people are less and less actively taking ownership of public space. are less and less actively taking ownership of public space. After the wave of public protests of 2012, the attendance After the wave of public protests of 2012, the attendance at opposition events are decreasing, the movement appears at opposition events are decreasing, the movement appears to be fading. What does this weak public activity imply to be fading. What does this weak public activity imply about private space and private criticism? The essential about private space and private criticism? The essential backstage social spaces of counterculture and productive backstage social spaces of counterculture and productive dissent are missing. dissent are missing.

Kitchen Talks Apartment Art Art Apartment

Camp/Barricade

Performance Literary Meeting Meeting Literary

Public rally

16 SEP 12

100,000

3 MAY 12 25,000 12 JUN 12

50,000

26 FEB12 30,000

17 MAY12 1,000

24 DEC 11

120,000 15 DEC 12 2,000 7 MAY12 OCCUPY 3,000

13 JAN 13

50,000

10 MAR12 25,000

4 FEB 12

6 MAY 12 BOLOTNAYA SQUARE 30,000

160,000

10 DEC 11 50,000 6 MAY 13

50,000

2011-2013 Public Protests 2011-2013 Public Protests

1 12

Freedom Index, Freedom House Index, Annual Freedom Freedom House Annual World Report 2012 World Report 2012

FREE

POLICE FORCEFULLY DISPERSE RALLIES TO ASSERT RIGHT TO FREE ASSEMBLY

MAY 6-8 PROTESTS AGAINST PUTIN’S RE-INAUGURATION, 1000+ DETAINED

‘EXTREMIST’ INTERNET CENSORSHIP NEW RESTRICTIONS FOR POLITCAL PARTIES

LAST INDEPENDENT NATIONAL TV STATION SHUT DOWN

EXTENSION OF PRESIDENTIAL TERM FROM 4 TO 6 YEARS

STATE MEDIA ATTACKS HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS

NEW LAW EXPANDING DEFINITION OF CRIMINAL TREASON

PARTIALLY FREE R CONCENTRATION OF REGIONAL CONTROL TO PUTIN

Do you support the opposition?

BAN ON LGBT EXPRESSION

SEVERE REGISTRATION LAWS AND PUNISHMENTS OPPOSITION LEADERS SILENCED

DEC 5-7 PROTESTS AFTER ELECTIONS, HUNDREDS ARRESTED, LEADERS JAILED

AUTHORITIES PROHIBIT OR DISPERSE MOST PUBLIC PROTESTS IN 2007

NGO RAIDS

NOT FREE

sur e

e sur

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1995

US ADOPTION BAN

YES

PUSSY RIOT PUNK PRAYER: 2 GIRLS SENTENCED TO 2 YEARS IN PRISON

RUSSIA FOR FREE ELECTIONS, WITHOUT PUTIN PROTESTS

FOREIGN AID TO POLITICAL CIVIL RIGHTS GROUPS BAN

NO ?

PUTIN ANNOUNCES HE WILL REMAIN IN POWER AS PRIME MINISTER

PROTESTERS AGAINST SOCIAL REFORMS ARRESTED

Do you support the mass protest movement?

YES

1991

FEDERAL LAW 54 RESTRICTIONS FOR PUBLIC PROTESTS

NEW RESTRICTIONS FOR NGOs

US SI A

Does Russia need an opposition?

INCREASE OF FINES FOR VIOLATING RULES OF PUBLIC EVENTS, CRIMINAL OFFENSE

2000

2005

2010

2013

Does the opposition have a sound plan for the future? Do you support the mass protest movement?

Do you support the opposition?

Does Russia need an opposition?

unsu

YES

Do you support the mass protest movement?

YES

sur e

NO ?

YES

e sur

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Open criticism is good for the country?

Does the opposition have a sound plan for the future?

Do you support the mass protest movement?

un sur e

NO ?

YES

55% support the 55% support the opposition opposition

Do you support the opposition?

unsu re

Does Russia need an opposition?

YES

YES YES YES

e sur ure un uns

12. Alexei Alexei Levinson, Levinson, “City “City 12. Built and and City City Virtual: Virtual: Built What is is Moscow?” Moscow?” Strelka Strelka What Institute, 55 March MarchNO 2013. Institute, 2013. unsu re

Does the opposition have a sound plan for the future?

e sur

YES

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Do you support the opposition?

sur e

Alexei Levinson Levinson of of the the Levada Levada Center Center believes believes that that there there Alexei re is a growing level of private dissent in the population u s YES is a growing level of private dissent in the YES NO un population today, and and that that this this and and the the declining declining number number of of protesters protesters today, 12 reveals aa shift shift in in the the mindset mindset of of Russian Russian citizens. NO reveals NOcitizens.12 According to to public public polls, polls, the the majority majority believes believes that that According open criticism criticism of of authority authority is is good, good, and and most most support support the the open opposition movement. However, only a minority supports opposition movement. However, only a minority supports the mass mass protest protest movement movement and and even even fewer fewer believe believe it it has has the 75% believe open criticism 13 sound objective. objective.13 75% believe criticism The recent recent wave wave of of public public protests protests aa sound is good foropen the country The is good for the country have been largely mostly demonstrations of opposition have been largely mostly - demonstrations of opposition without aa clear clear idea idea of of an an alternative alternative future. future. without e YES unsur Moscow’s history history of of protest protest has has shown shown that that opposition opposition Moscow’s manifests in in two two spheres spheres -- the the front-stage front-stage and and backstage backstageNO manifests YES social spaces. The most significant public events are fueled fueled social spaces. The most significant public events are by the the underground underground countercultures countercultures which which critically critically NO by engage with with ideas ideas about about alternative alternative futures. futures. It It is is most most engage critical now now to to enable enable the the backstage backstage spaces spaces in in order order to to critical restore the the visionary visionary social social collaboration collaboration which which fuels fuels restore society change change and and progress. progress. 42% support support mass mass protests protests society 42%

Does Russia need an opposition?

YES

NO NO

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Open criticism is good for the country?

Does the opposition have a sound plan for the future?

22% believe believe protest protest 22% movement has has aa sound sound movement objective

Open criticism is good for the country?

YES

NO Open2008 criticism is good for2010 the country? 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2011

support for open criticism of support for open criticism of authority

Does the opposition have a sound plan for the future?

113 e

sur

? YES

sur e

Do you support the mass protest movement?

13. The The Levada Levada Center, Center, 13. Annual Public Opinion Annual Public Opinion Survey, Moscow, Moscow, 2012. 2012. Survey, un

Therefore, aa new new protest protest model model and and aa new new space space of of Therefore, counterculture should be introduced in the city. This new counterculture should be introduced in the city. This new e YES unsur typology will will be be aa catalyst catalyst for for future future protest protest movements, movements, typology achieving maximum maximum effect effect without without maximum maximum number number achieving of people assembling in crowds. Instead of centralized NO of people assembling in crowds. Instead of centralized and confined confined to to aa singular singular event event in in at at one one place place and and and time, this this model model will will be be distributed distributed throughout throughout the the city. city. time, Furthermore, it it should should restore restore and and preserve preserve the the physical physical Furthermore, heritage of of revolution revolution in in Moscow. Moscow. heritage

unsu re

Does Russia need an opposition?

“Long live the avant garde of the Revolution!”

ZUEV WORKERS’ CLUB I. Golosov, 1927-1929 Status: Public cultural center, Children’s center

OGONYOK PRINTING PLANT El Lissitzky, 1930-1934 Status: abandoned and unused, removed from protected cultural landmarks list RUSAKOV WORKERS’ CLUB K. Melnikov, 1929 Status: undergoing restoration

BREAD FACTORY NO. 5 G. Marsakov, 1927-1931 Status: mostly vacant, intended to be restored and converted into apartments NARKOMFIN COMMUNAL HOUSE M. Ginzburg, 1928-1932 Status: partially inhabited, severe decay of the exterior, restoration intended

COMMUNAL HOUSE FOR KURSK WORKERS G. Marsakov, 1928 Status:

MELNIKOV HOUSE K. Melnikov, 1929 Status: At Risk due to nearby construction, intended to become a museum

KAUCHUCK FACTORY CLUB K. Melnikov, 1927-1929 Status: under threat of demolition, unclear ownership

SHUKHOV TOWER V. Shukhov, 1922 Status: under threat of demolition, UNESCO Endangered Building

STUDENT COMMUNE OF THE TEXTILE INSTITUTE I. Nikolaev, 1928-1931 Status: partially leased, partially gutted

RALLY

1 14

PERFORMANCE

CAMP/ BARRICADE

LITERARY MEETING

APARTMENT ART

KITCHEN TALK

COMMUNAL STAGE KITCHEN 20 m2 170 m2 Zuev typ. Workers workersʼ Club housing

BUILDING 1160 m2

SMALL SQUARE 3685 m2

STREET 11,700 m2

LARGE SQUARE 36,000 m2

Rusakov Workersʼ Club

Chistye Prudy

Pushkinskaya

Bolotnaya Square

100m

PRIVATE

PUBLIC

DISTRIBUTED

ROOM 9 m2

APARTMENT 80 m2

CENTRALIZED

MISSING SCALE:

typ. apt. Belayeavo

COMMUNAL STAGE KITCHEN 20 m2 170 m2 Zuev typ. Workers workersʼ Club housing

BUILDING 1160 m2

SMALL SQUARE 3685 m2

STREET 11,700 m2

LARGE SQUARE 36,000 m2

Rusakov Workersʼ Club

Chistye Prudy

Pushkinskaya

Bolotnaya Square

100m

PRIVATE

PUBLIC

DISTRIBUTED

PERSONAL THOUGHT

SHARED THOUGHT

CENTRALIZED

RATIONAL CONVERSATION

CHARGED ASSEMBLY

POLITICAL MARCH

The decay decay of of Moscow’s Moscow’s Constructivist Constructivist architecture architecture is is aa The mirror of the decay of a vision for the future. Buildings mirror of the decay of a vision for the future. Buildings like the the Melnikov Melnikov House, House, Shukhov Shukhov Tower, Tower, Ognuk Ognuk Printing Printing like Plant and Narkomfin Communal Building face uncertain Plant and Narkomfin Communal Building face uncertain futures threatened threatened by by dilapidation, dilapidation, ownership ownership disputes, disputes, and and futures lack of of action action for for their their preservation. preservation. The The prevalence prevalence of of aa lack these buildings buildings in in need need of of rethinking rethinking offers offers aa readymade readymade these collection of of existing existing sites sites throughout throughout the the city city which which can can collection become the the new new network network of of backstage backstage social social spaces spaces for for become future countercultural countercultural movements. movements. Like Like the the worn worn pages pages future of well-circulated well-circulated samizdat samizdat texts, texts, the the physical physical wear wear of of the the of buildings represents an continual process of developing buildings represents an continual process of developing the future future which which is is also also rooted rooted in in the the past. past. Distributed Distributed the through the the city, city, the the buildings buildings will will also also be be catalysts catalysts for for through aa new new urban urban community. community. Community Community is is aa product product of of protesting against against society, society, aa form form of of bonding bonding through through aa protesting 14 rejection of of aa mainstream mainstream thing. thing.14 This community community will will be be rejection This unique in that it is based not on a set system of beliefs, but unique in that it is based not on a set system of beliefs, but on the the perpetual perpetual pursuit pursuit of of progress progress and and freedom. freedom. on My proposal proposal has has two two parts: parts: restoration restoration and and preservation. preservation. My

public/private

private enclaves

OUTBURST OF ANGER

Moscow’s social social heritage heritage of of counterculture counterculture and and private private Moscow’s dissent is in need of restoration, while its physical dissent is in need of restoration, while its physical architectural heritage heritage of of the the Avant Avant Garde Garde should should be be architectural preserved. I propose that these buildings become preserved. I propose that these buildings become venues to to be be occupied occupied by by future future countercultures countercultures and and venues protest movements, movements, as as catalysts catalysts for for social social awareness awareness and and protest engagement. These buildings should be preserved not engagement. These buildings should be preserved not based on on political political ideology, ideology, but but the the ambition ambition for for social social based progress with with which which they they were were designed. designed. As As signifiers signifiers progress of an an era era of of revolutionary revolutionary thinking thinking and and communal communal of production, the the buildings buildings of of the the Avant Avant Garde Garde are are production, appropriate facilities for new types of social engagement appropriate facilities for new types of social engagement and alternative alternative use. use. Departing Departing from from the the ideologies ideologies they they and were designed designed to to impose, impose, the the buildings buildings will will become become places places were for flexible and adaptable use. By inhabiting the spaces for flexible and adaptable use. By inhabiting the spaces of the the once once forgotten forgotten Avant Avant Garde, Garde, future future countercultural countercultural of movements will will revitalize revitalize the the physical physical and and intellectual intellectual movements heritage of the city. They will become enablers of social social heritage of the city. They will become enablers of progress and and the the [back]stages [back]stages for for future future historic historic events. events. progress In this this way, way, the the architecture architecture of of the the past past will will enable enable the the In revolutions of of the the future. future. revolutions

new semi-private typology

14. Reinier Reinier De De Graff, Graff, 14. “Architecture and and “Architecture Community”, Strelka Strelka Talks Talks Community”, Series, 16 16 May May 2013. 2013. Series,

urban distribution

115

From biblic a l p ro p h e c i e s to M a r x ’s d i a l e c t i c course of h i s to r y ; f ro m K e n n e d y ’s m a n o n the moon to Ku b r i c k ’s S p a ce O d ys s e y ; f ro m speculative a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t t h e e f fe c t s o f climate change to assessments about the future of the global economy... predictions manifest in many for ms, fro m ma ny s o u rces. What is th e va l u e o f p re d i c t i o n s ? H i s to r y ’s most profound changes are rarely the outcome of scientific calculation. M ore of ten than not, they result f ro m a l e a p o f f a i t h … a n d m ay b e there lies t h e e s s e n ce o f p re d i c t i o n s : a s t h e ultimately my t h i c a l d r i ve r s o f s u p p o s e d l y rational pro ce s s e s ; i n m a n’s a b i l i t y to b e l i e ve his own pre d i c t i o n s, e ve n w h e n t h e i r va l i d i t y remains qu e s t i o n a b l e…

1 16

FOR NOTES