SCOPE 2022(1) - Into the Future

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Department How will the world around us as students look like in 2030? If you really want to know the answer, a soothsayer would be very welcome. But what if we do not trust the crystal ball, how can we ever prepare for the insecure future? Better yet, how can we benefit from all swirling insecurities around us? You will not believe it yet, but after reading this article you will never read the newspapers the same way as you did before… TEXT Bauke Wijnands DESIGN Caitlin Riesewijk

Prepare for the future without a crystal ball Whereas others would rather stay far away from thinking about all insecurities the future may contain, Carel-Jan van Driel and Wim Nolles have made their passion of it. Using scenario planning has supported the strategy of standardization. Since then, scenario planning has been used in Philips Research a lot. After they left the company, they met again and while enjoying a cup of coffee, they discussed about the essence of successfully implementing it within Philips. They saw opportunities in innovating the concept of scenario planning on how it

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was used at Philips, particularly within the research divisions. Currently, they are responsible for scenario planning at our department IE&IS. They prepare our department for the future by sketching plausible scenarios of the future world in 2031 our department will act in. Evolution of scenario planning

The concept of scenario planning was introduced by Herman Kahn, one of the most prominent futurologists of the second half of the 20th century. His theories influenced the development of the United States’ nuclear strategy by

suggesting to ‘think the unthinkable’, namely a nuclear war. Further development of the concept was ensured by Shell. Pierre Wack, director of the planning group at the time was convinced that scenarios shouldn’t stick to expected occurrences, but rather focus on insecurities and structuring them. He said that scenario work involves ‘the gentle art of re- perceiving’. The first time Shell benefited from the use of scenario planning became clear during the oil crisis in 1973. Shell was prepared for the crisis and financial benefits exceeded


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