Sustainable Trend Forecasting

BACHELOR IN DESIGN AND BACHELORS EXAM PROJECT,

BUSINESS TUB14

Sylwia Karolina Dluzniewska

110588-3834

Sustainable Fashion

name

cpr nr

specialization direction

A trend forecast proposal for fashion companies based on TED Ten sustainable approaches and scenarios for the future. title

Tina Hjort primary

6 1

supervisor

7 3 2

number of characters

STATEMENT OF CONSENT

SOLEMN DECLARATION OF THE AUTENTICITY OF THE PROJECT

I hereby declare that KEA must exhibit my job at the library NO

It is hereby solemnly declared that I, the below-mentioned, single-handedly have produced this Bachelor Degree project and that I have not used passages in the text from other’s work without being clearly marked as quotes.

I am aware of the fact that it is cheating if all or parts of my project has been produced by others or part of the project is plagiarism

CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMNET ENCLOSED NO

15.12.2015

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EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

The report provides research, analysis and evaluation of the future scenarios and trend forecasting looked at from the perspective of fashion businesses.

Methods and theories used in this paper include: TED Ten guidelines,TOWS analysis, desk research, experts interviews, the DART model, the scenario planning approach, and the Hambrick’s Diamond strategy.

The data analysis shows that the world is facing an era of change and the future will bring new challenges, and the fashion industry will have to react to them. The analysis of methods and theories available from the trend forecasting field suggests that trend forecasting can be a tool in the future planning.

The output of the future scenario analysis and TED Ten guidelines in this paper is a trend forecast. It is anchored in the TED platform and works to help implement sustainable solutions into small to medium sized fashion brands, operating on the European market. In order to work properly, the trend forecast will need several factors to be present, constantly maintained and developed. The main ones include a thorough research and a broad network of collaborators.

CONTENTS

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18

INTRODUCTION PROBLEM AREA PROBLEM FORMULATION METHODOLOGY DELIMITATION ANALYSIS THE COMPANY I TED Profile

1. Current consumer profile

2. TED Ten II TOWS THE FUTURE I Future drivers

1.Demographic change

2. Climate change

3. Cost and accessibility of key resources

4. Uncertainties II Key scenarios

1. High-tech culture

1.2 High-tech vs high-touch

2. Better together

3. Fragmentation of the world III Conclusion TRENDS & TREND FORECASTING I Trend’s nature

1.Trend Networks

2. Life of a trend

3.Trend sizes

3.1. Fads vs trends

3.2. Micro, mega or macro trend?

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 36 37 38

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II DART 1.Blue circle - general drivers 1.1 Society 1.2 Culture 1.3 History 1.4 Theory 2. Pink circle - current drivers 2.1 Street

2.2 Sociality

2.3 Industry

2.4 Media

3. Method (yellow)

4. Output (green) III Conclusion SOLUTION SCENARIO I Scenario planning II Scenario characteristics - Concept III Marketing

1. Competitors

2. Strategy DISCUSSION CONCLUSION PERSPECTIVE REFERENCE LIST APPENDICES

introduction

T

he future is exciting, but it also brings a lot of uncertainty. The world is developing fast, new technologies emerge on daily basis, and more people have access to information. Yet, with great development, comes great responsibility.

The consumption culture emerging from growing consumerism and rapidly changing trends raise a lot of challenges. There is plenty of work that should be done to secure the future of next generations.

The fashion industry is one of the fields which will also have to adapt to those changes sooner or later.

The topic of sustainability in the fashion field has been present for many years now. But sustainable does not only mean environmentally and ethically made. It also means to be able to react to the changes. Therefore, it is essential to keep finger on the pulse in order not to be surprised by upcoming events.

“

The problem with the future is that it keeps turning into the present.�

— Bill Watterson

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problem area

D

espite the great buying power that consumers have nowadays, it is companies who make crucial decisions, often lead by financial factors. Therefore, enterprises are in the main focus when looking for the delivery of more sustainable solutions, products, and services. Adding sustainability to products and services should not, however, result in losing their aesthetics and functionality - the features that constitute the very core of design.

Very often sustainability becomes present in fashion labels activities as a part of marketing and promotion, without touching the core of the problem. It comes in front of the product itself, overwhelming consumers with difficult concepts and problems that might be hard for them to relate to.

So what way should fashion brands take to contribute to both their businesses in 10-30 years and the future of next generations?

In this project, I would like to focus on trend forecasting and the potential it has in implementing sustainability in business model. The fashion industry is full of inspirational trend forecasts whose goal is to stimulate designers into creating new, more interesting products. But the truth is that such trend forecasts are there to generate more and more waste, which will be very soon replaced by new products.

The world does not need more products. It needs new solutions.

problem formulation How can I develop a trend forecast based on TED Ten sustainable approaches and future scenarios? How can it help and guide fashion businesses in implementing sustainability? What would such a trend forecast look like?

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methodology

T

he topic of this paper focuses on the issue of sustainability as seen through the future scenarios. The main focal points of the research were in relation to the TED company, their TED Ten approach, the future drivers and emerging scenarios, trends and methods used in trend forecasting.

Primary and secondary data constitute the research part of this project. The research chapter, however, has not been included in the main part of the paper, but was evaluated under the analysis part and enclosed in appendices.

In order to plan the process of writing the project, a gantt chart was created (appendix 1), followed by a research design (appendix 2). The research on the TED company has been presented in the first part of the analysis. It was then followed by TOWS. This method was used to broaden understanding of TED potential and risk as a baseplatform for the final product.

Secondary, qualitative desk research was used to find information on the future drivers and scenarios in the “Future” chapter. The information was then analyzed on the basis of repeating patterns, which resulted in three main scenarios. Desk research was also used in the first part of the “Trends and trend forecasting” chapter to understand anatomy and nature of trends.

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The primary data research: semi-structured interviews with professionals with experience in trend forecasting (appendix 3) were conducted in order to have a broader insight into the topic. The primary data research is mostly visible in the “Method” part of the DART model (appendix 4). The method plays a significant role in analysing and supporting the main hunch of this paper, where small to medium sized companies are targeted.

Solution scenario is based on the Brummell and MacGillivray’s scenario planning. The sub-chapter called “Marketing” makes use of multi competitor profile and the Hambrick’s Diamont strategy model (appendix 6). The first tool combines characteristics which would describe the new tool and ranks possible competitors accordingly.

The strategy tool sets perspective on competitive future actions of the new trend forecast and TED business.

delimitation

T

he research covers desk research and semi-structured interview. The paper does not include consumer or street observation. The main reason for this limitation is the fact that the project aims at business-to-business customers rather than end-buyers. Secondly, street observation as such was not possible being sustainable and traditional clothing does not differ much in appearance.

The paper does not give definition nor describe sustainability, even though it is the intention of the new trend forecast to corporate sustainability into customers’ business operations. Sustainability is part of the future scenarios and TED Ten guidances but is not elaborated upon as such.

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analysis

THE COMPANY

—

THE FUTURE

— TRENDS & TREND FORECASTING

THE COMPANY

I TED Profile Founded in 1996, TED - The Textiles Environment Design is a project based at the Chelsea College of Art and Design.

It emerged with the mindset of decreasing the negative impact of the design process on the environment. TED believes that 80-90% of a product environmental impact is created during the process of design (tedreseach.net). Since established, TED have been working on sustainable strategies, with a number of projects, events and publications. TED has also developed a tool for fashion designers called the TED Ten. TED members’ work has been shown at many international venues.

As a way to explore and communicate sustainable design, the researchers developed TED’s Ten. It is a set of ten sustainable strategies for textiles and fashion designers. It is being shared with a number of stakeholders including design teams, textile and garment manufacturers, fashion brands, educational institutions, and research organisations.

TED provides such services as: • Sustainable product design and development • Systems and services ideas for sustainable business models • Education and training packages using design-led workshops • Event Curation TED’s mission is to be proactive in creating real change in design and production.

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1. Current consumer profile Textile Environment Design works with both small- to mediumsized enterprises (SME’s), as well as larger companies.

“While initially developed for designers, our design-thinking workshops are now being used as a catalyst for companies to drive innovation and new ways of doing business.” (tedresearch.net) The market they operate on is mostly the United Kingdom, with few companies in Europe and the USA. TED has been collaborating with such brands as: Audax Textile Museum, The Netherlands, Museum at the Fashion Institute of Technology (FMIT), New York and the Science Museum, London, and their research has begun to be shared with commercial partners such as VF Corporation (US) or H&M. 2. TED Ten TED 10 is a set of ten strategies, prepared by Textiles Environment Design, which emerged in order to help fashion designers find sustainable solutions during the process of design. The strategies have been researched upon by TED’s team since 1996 and still develop. Accessible to the public through the TED website, the strategies feature a brief description of how they work with an explanatory video to each of them and examples of use. This gives quite a broad overview of what the toolbox is about.

The TEN principles are: 1. Design to minimize waste 2. Design for cyclability 3. Design to reduce chemical impacts 4. Design to reduce energy and water use 5. Design that explores clean/better technologies 6. Design that takes models from nature and history 7. Design for ethical production 8. Design to reduce the need to consume 9. Design to dematerialise and develop systems and services 10. Design activism

The principles reveal many levels of sustainability and encourage companies to look differently at the design process from the environmental, social, business, and customer level.

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II TOWS Textiles Environment Design is a growing company with plenty of opportunities. It currently has a broad network of stakeholders and a well balance d position due to its scientific facilities, also by being rooted in a prestigious university with qualified staff.

Such an environment gives a lot of opportunities.

THREATS (EXTERNAL) -competing in both trend forecasting and sustainable fields -regulations in regards to sustainable products -growing environmental issues -”wild cards” -dealing with uncertainties of the future -lack of interest caused by consumption culture -change of consumer profile-different needs

Working with new technologies and a network of researchers is one of them. Furthermore, consumers are becoming more engaged in sustainability and seek products and services of high quality, coming from transparent brands.

A sustainable profile gives a lot of competitive advantage.

OPPORTUNITIES (EXTERNAL) -working with new technologies -increasing engagement of consumers in sustainable products and services -going outside fashion field, wide application of research results -emphasis on quality of end-product -growing consumer need for transparency -need for differentiation and competitive advantage of new enterprises

However, working with sustainability nowadays is a challenge. It is still a relatively narrow field and not as big an audience as could be wished for.

One of the reasons being brands with sustainable profile offer products and services in rather higher price range, than the mass-production ones. What is more, being on “the good side” means that the company must constantly respond to the issues sustainability covers. This include new social and environmental problems, political regulations, as well as constant research.

WEAKNESSES (INTERNAL) -niche market -higher price of end-products -need to cover the whole supply chain of product -lack of promotion -low commercial profile STRENGTHS (INTERNAL)

TED is a broad platform which could facilitate a trend forecast service. With the use of the sustainable tools and up-to date research the trend forecast is closely connected to TED’s activities, but it is also relatively different from their current actions and could put TED in a more competitive position by bringing in freshness.

-broad existing network -stakeholders in private and public sectors -brand reputation -quick reaction to changes -handling data -diversity of services -government support as public institution

TOWS analysis of TED (author: Sylwia K. Dluzniewska)

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THE FUTURE

“

Many people believe that trends are mysterious or inexplicable phenomena that nobody really understands. But actually trends are more predictable than most people think.”

-Vejlgaard, 2008, p.27

I Future drivers Looking into the future is a key activity of a trend forecaster. Even though it sounds like something a fortune teller would do, there are things we can be certain about. Some of the actions people take nowadays will have direct impact on the planet and its habitat in the nearest decades, and they cannot be undone. There are also factors which will occur, but it is hard to tell which direction they will develop to. Three main future “certainties” and few minor, but equally important “uncertainties” were chosen for this project. The certainties in this case mean drivers that appear most frequently in various organisations’ reports and future scenarios; whilst uncertainties are factors believed to be very influential, but impossible to precisely predict the directions they will take.

Below is a simplified map of such factors:

Future drivers (author: Sylwia K. Dluzniewska)

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1.Demographic change The demographic changes are inexorable. Introduction of agriculture, growing living standards after the Industrial Revolution, as well as the diminution of famine and epidemics have contributed to the growth of population. It is estimated that the population number will increase even more, to over 8 billion people by 2025 (You & Anthony, 2012, p.3).

According to the same report, the percentage of children (0-17 y.o.) will drop to 29% of the population and 25% by 2050. The number of children being born in the poorest countries will continue to grow, with 1 in 3 children being African, while the population of developed countries will stay stable at 1.2 billion (2012, p.3-6).

With lowering mortality and decreasing percentage of the young, the world’s population will continue to age. The number of seniors (60+) will double to more than 70 million. Around 2060 the number of children and seniors will be the same, with the number of elderly population continuing to outnumber children. (Mirkin & Weinberger, p.41) 2. Climate change The climate change that the world will be experiencing in the next 15-20 years is the result of past and current pollution. The rate of CO2 emission to the atmosphere has been growing dramatically since the Industrial Evolution.

CO2 agglomerating in atmosphere is the main cause of global warming (NASA). It is estimated that global warming might cause the raise of the earth’s temperature by more than 2° by 2025, leading to catastrophic climate disruptions and irreversible changes in ecosystems. Even if the CO2 emission stops completely now, the gas will be present in the atmosphere for many centuries to millennia. (Allison et al., 2009, p.49)

“

2° global temperature rise could lead to sufficient warming over Greenland to eventually melt much of its ice sheet, raising sea level by over six meters and displacing hundreds of millions of people worldwide.”

-Allison et al., 2009, p.49

3. Cost and accessibility of key resources Growing number of population and post-industrial pollution will have immediate effects on the future of the world in 10-30 years. The demand for main resources such as water, food, or electricity will grow together with the population, and pollution. According to the Big Future 2025 report, the current production of livestock is responsible 14.5% of total greenhouse gases emission. By 2030, the percentage will grow up to 27%. (p.14)

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In 2025 up to a half of the population might encounter water shortages (WHO, 2009). What is more, in order to feed the growing population, there will be an increased demand for irrigation to meet requirements of food production.

(Rosegrant, 2002, p.2). The same will happen to oil resources and traditional energy sources.

4. Uncertainties There are also few other factors, which will shape the future, but the direction of their development is uncertain. Forum for the Future suggest that people’s response towards the bound climate change or resources scarcity is such an uncertainty (Bennie et al., 2010). Also, CIFS’ reports on consumer behavior shows that it cannot be clearly determined how consumers will react to any future changes. Carsten Beck in the phone interview (appendix 3) mentions that according to consumer analysis conducted by CIFS, there are 50% chances that consumers will move towards sustainability. In 10-15 years the buying power of generation X will be pass onto generation Z, and their consumer behaviour in that time is hard to predict.

The Big Future 2025 report points out to the growing middle class within developing economies, especially in China, will be the new buying power in 2030, with 30 times greater buying power than Africa, which will also experience great middle class growth. According to CIFS’ “10 Tendencies towards 2020”, it should be borne in mind that emerging economies, especially Africa, has a great potential of oil production and services (Mogensen et al., 2010, p.9).

Technological development is also an uncertain aspect. We might be 100% certain that technologies continue to develop, but it is impossible to predict what new technologies will come into being, and how such the development will shape the future.

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II Key scenarios Having analyzed several future scenarios and future drivers, I traced down similarities and merged them down into three future scenarios. The main scenarios has been evaluated in this section: Fashion Futures 2025 (Forum for the Future & Levi Strauss), Global Scenarios to 2025 (National Intelligence Council), and Trends for Tomorrow (Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, supported by their “The 40 Talks about the Future”). Other supportive publications were also used for a better perspectivation. The scenarios give a thorough ground for trend forecasting, and could be used not only in the fashion industry, but in many other fields as well.

1. High-tech culture

1.2 High-tech vs high-touch

Constant development of technology brings a lot of hope when it comes to solving current issues and general improving life. In this scenario, technology will be a future driver for transformation. Automation will have a great influence on the labour market and will lead to decline of traditional labour. The technological development and the growing middle glass of developing economies are highly probably to power the growth of consumerism. Trends will be changing extremely fast and new buying experiences will govern the market. CIFS points out to the “freedom from ownership” tendency, where business models are focused on renting, sharing and borrowing, leading to transformation of economy (Blinkenberg, 2013). Innovation will lead to a switch to low carbon and cradle-to-cradle economies. In fashion, traditional materials, like cotton, will be entirely replaced by more advanced and less water consuming materials.

One, however, should not forget that the human factor will be still present no matter how far into technological development the society dives in.

The relevance between the high technology and human factor should not be diminished: the more high-tech humans have, the more high-touch they need (Naisbitt in: Raymond, 2010). Also, Forum for the Future notices that together with the technological culture, the ani-culture will develop: people will decline usage of high-tech in their everyday life, or try to keep it to minimum (Bennie, Gazibara & Murray, 2010, p.37).

2. Better together People’s dissatisfaction with government’s actions and its lack of transparency will lead to “democratic rebellion”: decentralization of power caused by a general dissatisfaction with government and corporations. (Bækdel, 2014) The movement will bring people together. Communities will form frameworks around ideologies, building groups made of voluntary self involved individuals.

Social media and technological development will enable people to take part in movements globally, information will spread fast, forming the effect of a snowball in crucial issues. People will turn away from the government and rely on local communities.

The lack of resources will cause conflicts, failed climate changes agreements.

Innovation will also influence the consumer sector. The process of aging might be stopped by innovative biotechnology, causing shift in the market.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology stresses that uncontrolled development of innovation might pose a serious risk to people’s security, e.g. hacking personal information (The Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network, 2010). High level of automation in production sector might cause crisis on the labour market and a fragmentation of the world economies, resulting in a huge gap between innovation-led countries, and those who could not catch up.

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New materials will be expensive, reuse of fibres will play a crucial role in fashion, together with closed looped water manufacturing and zero waste pattern cutting. Fashion industry will shrink, replaced by social clothing services, like fashion libraries (Bennie et al., 2010, p.9), home and community clothing production. Successful businesses will operate on a small scale and would be strongly connected to communities.

3. Fragmentation of the world Fragmentation of the world is one of the scenarios that is covered in most of the publications used in this chapter. According to the scenario, there is a possibility that conflicts, recession of the market, and resource shortages will lead to fragmentation of global community. Countries will be unable to create global network for climate action and relief.

CO2 emission and waste disposal would be left

Future drivers and scenarios (author: Sylwia K. Dluzniewska)

without any global regulations. The world will suffer general lack of multinational solidarity, and high competition between countries on various levels, one of them being fashion industry.

Growing distrust between nations, as well as scarcity and high prices of resources will lead to the growth of local production. Patriotic fashion and high transportation costs will boost regional supply chains. Smaller society groups might form out, leading to decentralized production of new alternative power resources, e.g. biogas (BĂŚkdel, 2014). The groups will be characterized with high level of self-efficiency, also in energy production.

People will put better value to culture and beliefs of their own countries. The new consumer type, the creative man (Mogensen, 2006) will have a significant impact on the final product. DIY fashion and upcycling will constitute to a great part of fashion industry.

III Conclusion Some of the existing scenarios reports showed scenarios very similar to each other e.g. Forum for the Future presents two very similar visions, both of them base on the community living in the future. I decided to merge those two scenarios into one that would represent the uncertainties the factors of society and consumer behaviour brings. What is more, original scenarios often exclude some important factors, concluding they cannot work together, e.g. globalization of the world excludes local patriotism. Also, the scenarios with extreme profiles, where the world would become completely sustainable or a complete failure were not included in this paper.

The picture emerging from the scenarios shows huge disproportions between today’s world and the future. Data collected from various, unrelated publications introduces repeating patterns in future scenarios. The scenarios are put together from most commonly appearing in various publications. Yet, the frequency of the information appearance should not be the only factor in analysis. Since the scenarios are to a big extend based on uncertain factors and many wild factors can appear on the way, one should be critical when relying on them. Also, the setting of scenarios form a certain framework of thinking, whereas trend forecasting requires trendsetters to stay curious and open-minded to any new factors which appear in the future, as they might turn out to be crucial.

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TRENDS & TREND FORECASTING I Trend’s nature The stuff, or something that “crosses our visual, emotional or intellectual field of vision in a way that piques curiosity or commands attention”. (Raymond, 2010, p.34) The stuff is the very first element in building up a hunch. Trend forecasting is all about constant observation of the stuff, wherever and whenever you are, and asking the right questions. To embrace a trend one needs to know where it originates from, why it is emerging at that particular moment, who the originator is, what it should be named, and when the first notion of it happened. (Brannon, 2010, p.3; Raymond, 2010, p.41-44) A trend forecaster can use research, intuition (based on knowledge, research and experience) or network, where intuition of many are used to determine a trend. The network is a structure of connected “nodes” (Raymond, 2010, p.94 ) between which the information flows. The bigger and more diverse network, the more accurate the prediction is. Vejlgaard notices that trends spread most easily in polysocial groups, where people differ from each other. (2012, p.120)

1.Trend Networks Francis Galton distinguishes three types of trend networks: hierarchical, collaborative, and distributional (in: Raymond, 2010), as presented in the figure below. The most common nowadays is the hierarchical network, where a number of not connected to each other members report their findings to the central node, who further evaluates the information and passes it on to a higher lever of the organizational structure. A collaborative network forms when members pass information to

several superior nodes. Members of a collaborative network are connected to each other and to supernodes in a way that allows information flow freely.

The last type is a distributive network, where all members are connected and the information can flow evenly at high speed. Such networks tend to act according to 80/20 rule, where 20% of members are responsible for 80% of network’s output (Raymond, 2010, p.114).

Trend network types by Galton (author: Sylwia K. Dluzniewska)

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2. Life of a trend Before a trend becomes mainstream, it takes 2-3 year for it to develop (Vejlgaard, 2012, p.155). The stuff starts its life from trend creators. Trendsetters are the most open and curious group, who eagerly take the idea over. The young, designers, gay men, celebrities, the wealthy, artists, style conscious subcultures, and others are distinguished by Vejlgaard as the most influential elements of that group. Trend followers adopt trends after having seen other people use innovation. Early mainstreamers, are the last group before the trend gets to the tipping-point after which it becomes mainstream. Mainstreamers are the biggest group of society, approximately 40% of it. After hitting the top of its lifecycle, a trend fades slowly and is adopted by late mainstreamers. Conservatives are the group which does not like changes, and will only adopt trend at the end of its lifecycle. Anti-innovators are the ones who would acquire a trend the latests. Vejlgaard also notices the strong relation between how often people shop and their position in the Diamond-Shaped trend model presented by the author. Trendsetters are more likely to be met out shopping and exploring flea markets, as contrary to conservatives. The whole lifecycle of a trend lasts 7-10 years (Vejlgaard, 2012, p. 81-118):

Vejlgaard’s Diamond Trend Model (interpretation: Sylwia K. Dluzniewska)

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3.Trend sizes Before starting forecasting the trend, a trend forecaster needs to acknowledge whether they are interested in a fad or a trend. Is it a short- or long-time forecasting? What are demographics and fields of trend forecasting? Will have short and long term effects?

Understanding the difference between fads and trends, as well as different types of trends is essential in trend forecasting.

Talking about fads or trends, neither of them are prescribed only to fashion. In fact, they affect many different parts of life, and fashion is just one of them.

3.1. Fads vs trends Fads happen very unpredictably and fade equally quickly. Their consequences are rather unnoticable after they are gone. Fads usually last one season, sometimes up to a year, unless they develop into macro or megatrends. An example of a fad turning into a trend is social media, while a fad that became “trapped in time” and never turned into trend, are parachute pants. (Wise Geek, 2015)

“

A fad is a discernible cultural effect and a trend is usually the underlying cause”

-Mark Hancock, planning director

Fads and trends differ on several levels. While trend is a long-lasting social phenomenon, fad has an easy-come, easy-gone nature and does not cross over into other fields. The acceptance of industry is also different: smaller companies react differently to fads than the larger ones (Vejlgaard, 2012, p.12). Small enterprises are more likely to grab the idea of fads and promote products of fad nature, whereas larger companies would wait for the fad to develop into a trend before they take up the risk.

3.2. Micro, mega or macro trend?

Once a fad becomes a trend, it can develop into different ways: micro, macro, mega trend.

Micro trend is a phenomenon that lasts three to five years (Micro Trending, 2015). They are the first sign of an emerging trend movement. Microtrends are driven by innovation and have future potential. According to Mark Penn, the key environmental factor of microtrends appearance is social tolerance and the ability to accept and support emerging change (Micro Trending, 2015). Microtrends, especially at the beginning, are not always recognisable and need to be crystallized for society and industries to acknowledge their existence.

Macro trends have a broader, compared to microtrends (even global) radius. They not only work on a scale larger than microtrends, but also last longer - from 5 to 10 years (Perez Olmo, 2015). Several macro trends might compose a megatrend. The phenomenon of macro trends can be seen in several different industries.

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Large trend forecasting companies, such as WGSN or Trend Union work with macro trend frames to come up with future fashion scenarios.

Iconoculture, a consumer and innovation-driven company also uses macro trends. They came up with the “SustainAbilities” trend. According to Iconoculture, this macro trend is becoming more and more mainstream in fashion by “seamlessly merging style with environmentally sensitive fabrics, manufacturing, production process and ethical concerns” creating “eco-chic” movement. (Brannon, 2010, p.129) The Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies comes up with the explanation that “Megatrends are the probable future – or express what we know with great confidence about the future. Megatrends are certainties.” (Larsen, 2006) Megatrends were first broadly introduced by John Naisbitt (Brannon, 2010, p.119). After having researched similarities and schemes in various newspapers for hints in developing trends, he published his findings in 1982 in the “Megatrends” book. Ever since, the book has been one of the most influential text on the nature of megatrends.

Megatrends affect longer periods of time. It can be five, ten, twenty years, or even more. A very important aspect of working with megatrends is the technique used. Predicting long-term future is never totally accurate due to the unpredictable occurring events.

Finally, megatrends constitute a considerable part of the culture. The figure below represents trends relevance to each other.

Time and popularity of trends and fads (author: Sylwia K. Dluzniewska)

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II DART Once getting to know the anatomy of a trend, it is a good idea to systematize a hunch – a notion of a trend, according to various trend drivers. The DART method was developed by two teachers with the background of trend forecasting: Maria Mackinney-Valentin and Lene Hald. Here, more thorough questions about society, history, industry and others are asked to verify the “stuff”. It establishes a framework for fashion designers to turn their intuition into an organized hunch. The DART model suggest to look at the hunch through the perspective of general drivers such as: society, culture, history, and theory; but also the current observation of street culture, sociality, industry, and media.

The hunch for this paper has been done with a mindset for fashion companies implementing sustainable solutions through a trend forecast. Therefore the hunch for further DART analysis would investigate the following statement: There is something about... fashion brands becoming more sustainable.

The analysis of the hunch starts with a general blue circle and should lead to a final output, which in the case of this paper, it will be the trend forecast tool (appendix 4).

1.Blue circle - general drivers 1.1 Society There are more and more people in our society. The predictions are that the population will have grown to 8 billion people in 2025. This raises the question of food supply and sufficiency of key resources.

Also, with a bigger number of people, the problems of pollution and contamination appear. To satisfy consumption needs of such a number of people, fashion industry produces more, risking health and life of labour workers.

The fashion industry has already started reacting to those issues, mostly under consumers’ pressure.

Levi Strauss was the first company to introduce “terms of engagement” with the goal to raise labour standards in the supply chain. Some brands, like Kuyichi incorporate recycled fabrics in their production in order to minimize waste. Patagonia communicates the issue of overly consumption by asking their customers to buy only what they really need. (Krüger et al., 2012)

Another issue affecting our society is the migration crisis that has hit Europe and other countries in the recent years. With a high level of diversity on cultural background in European countries, comes the question of how the society will look in the future, and what values it will hold. The new state of events raises plenty of issues, but it gives new opportunities for fashion industry. ITMV – In Line with the World is an initiative lead by DrudeKatrine Plannthin that gathers refugee women with skills in handworks to activate them on the danish job market and integrate socially, which results in unique handmade products.

The changes might not be visible on the global scale but undoubtedly open up new ways of development for fashion industry.

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1.2 Culture Growing awareness of the problems and changes the fashion industry is currently facing has been been a driver for the film industry to base their productions upon. The collapse of Rana Plaza in 2013 moved Norway’s largest newspaper, Aftenposten, to produce a documentary reality show, where three fashion enthusiasts from Norway travel to Cambodia to work in a clothing factory. They experience life of people who produce the clothing they can find in fashion stores back in Norway. This shocking series reveals the truth about fashion industry, something that most of consumers are not aware (or do not want to acknowledge) when buying their clothing.

overseas to satisfy the customers’ needs for more affordable fashion.

But for every action there is a counteraction.

Growing social awareness during the Vietnam War was a beginning of a social reaction chain against the growing consumerism. This eventually lead to the introduction of The first Earth Day in 1970. Fashion became a part of the environmental movement due to the growing wellbeing of the population and easier flow of the information. The hippie counterculture has undoubtedly had a great impact on the introduction of more organic, often self-made clothing. Recycling and upcycling were common practices in hippie communities.

Magazines publishers have been too driving the reader’s attention to issues we are facing nowadays. There is a growing number of articles on sustainability, expert interviews promoting sustainable brands in popular lifestyle magazines.

Some of the titles include: “How to be a sustainable fashion warrior” in Dazed and Confused, “Can fashion save the world?” in i-D, “The reformation makes environmentally conscious shopping completely transparent” in Elle. New magazines, where sustainable lifestyle is the main topic emerge od daily basis. e.g. Sublime Magazine, Coco Eco Magazine.

Even though the ethic approach had made its way into the fashion industry, mass production of the 80s and 90s grown bigger than ever before.

It was not until late 80s when a Belgian designer Martin Margiela launched a collection, in which he recycled a leather butcher’s apron into an evening gown (Csanak, 2014, p.2). At that time, fashion was becoming a more common medium for making a statement on a catwalk, and more ecological materials were being looked into. In 1990 Vogue mentioned the sustainable tendency in fashion and issued “The Green Movement in the Fashion World” article. Economic growth of China in the 90s has lead to development of industrial cities and visible pollution issues.

There is also a rise in sustainable oriented organizations willing to help fashion companies to develop sustainable profile in their business model.

Sustainia and oikos are just two examples of such organizations. They work closely with educational institutions, as well as private businesses, offering a range of lectures, cultural events, and consultancy.

The most visible nowadays shift towards sustainability in fashion business started in the 90s, when clothing companies were hit by a wave of critique regarding the production methods.

Such brands as Nike or Gap were accused of manufacturing their products in poor working conditions in Indonesian factories. Consumers’ protests and pressure from the media forced the companies to take steps to change their supply chain and introduce codes of conduct. Fletcher mentions that the tension resulted in “22 azo dyes that break down into carcinogenic amines” being banned from use in Europe in the 90s.

(2008, p. 44).

1.3 History The Industrial Revolution and the postwar consumer boom have contributed to the development of shopping culture. Technological advances and flourishing consumerism in the 1950s gave birth to a mass production consumption. However, not everyone could afford buying clothing and home made clothing was something most of the society would have in their wardrobes. Fashion houses in the 60s and 70s would produce more clothes

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1.4 Theory Sustainability is a broad subject with plenty of approaches behind to support ethical and ecological methods in fashion industry. The TEN sustainable strategies for fashion industry by TED gathers a number of such methods and theories.

Zero waste and slow design are strategies that TED suggests using to minimise waste in fashion production; whilst design with enhanced aesthetic value contributes to creation of longlived and desired by consumers products. Finding inspiration from the past and nature is yet another approach to more sustainable fashion: the “lotus effect” nano-coating method for example uses the water repellent structure of the lotus leaves in fabric production for self-cleaning effect (Percenta Nanotechnology, 2015). System thinking on the design stage allows strategy where products can be replaced or supported by services, leading to reduced use of resources and to a well developed sharing economy. TED Ten encourages designers to become social innovators, to creatively work with consumers and society, and to educate and engage consumers in the design process. TED emphasizes also the role of emotional attachment of consumers in product design as a way to reduce wasteful consumerism.

The consumer behaviour itself is a broad and deep topic. Not only is it a notion important in the design process, but also works as a marketing tool without which it is highly impossible to develop a desirable product adjusted to consumers’ needs.

Rational choice theory is a framework used for understanding social and economic behaviour in terms of “how self-interested individuals make choices under the influence of their preferences” (Business Dictionary). Some consumers might react accordingly to a different approach, known as the behavioral approach, which states that all human behaviour is stimulated by external factors.

Undoubtedly, culture and society are such external factors which prompt an individual to follow, or disregard a trend.

2. Pink circle - current drivers 2.1 Street More and more new sustainable enterprises appear on the market marking consumers demand for more ethical and ecological fashion. Whether it is a marketing strategy, or a real need for change, enterprises decide to move towards ethical and ecological clothing.

Street observation of popularity of sustainable clothing is not particularly accurate, reason being sustainable clothing does not differ in appearance from the traditional clothes. However, taking into account that sustainable fashion is a part of a greater movement, where other everydaylife aspects are present and easy to trace. For example, all chains food supermarkets in Denmark offer a range of ecological products (fruit, vegetables), they also put pressure on products locally made rather than exported from abroad (diary products, meet). Cosmetics and household detergents with certificates are long in use and popularly used in common laundries.

Growing popularity of social events, where unwanted clothes are being swapped or resold, is an indicator of people being more interested in sustainable solutions in fashion. WRAP states that 350,000 tonnes of unwanted clothing goes yearly to landfill just in the UK (Gracey & Moon, 2012). Accordingly, such social events contribute not only to refreshment of contestants wardrobes, but reduce waste significantly. Guardian lists plenty of swapping events in the UK, giving just a few in London: Back of the Wardrobe, DogStar, East London Fashion Exchange, Frock Swappers, Swapaholics, Swap in the City, or The Clothes Club. (Purvis & Evrenos, 2014)

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from critiquing collections when they just hit the runways to helping in the design and buying process.” (Ziv, 2013, p. 32)

2.2 Sociality Clothing no longer is a status marker, at least not to the extend it used to be. Celebrities wear apparel from cheap chain shops, while second hand shops offer high quality clothing from the most known designers in a price range everyone can afford it.

In November 2015 H&M and Balmain collaborated to deliver a high end collection to chain shops.

Celebrities and “regular” consumers were able to wear this same dress. Consequently, sustainable clothing, often perceived as more luxurious and expensive, is not reserved for upper class, but accessible by everyone.

What is more, rise of sustainable textiles and production methods contributed to development of various eco labels and certificates, used by companies to systemize and mark their sustainable actions, putting fashion brands in a competitve state.

2.4 Media The growing Internet accessibility and popularity of the mass media resulted in shifts of traditional forms of the mass media, such as of newspaper, radio and television. They have lost their leading role in the mass media world since the Internet completely took over the media world.

2.3 Industry Yuli Ziv in the book “Season of change” mentions several challenges which emerge from the changing world. One of the most important is the shifting hierarchy and rules in the business filed, which often results in chaos and disorientation.

It influences the fashion industry, where trends and buying decisions are no longer dictated by a narrow group of influential people, but rather by millions of individuals with an easy access to the Internet and the mass media. The most influential kind of trend network has changed from hierarchical to collaborative, setting a different tendency in building up the marketing strategy (2013).

Previously mentioned easy access to the Internet leads to increasing transparency. Because of broad use of social media, information and opinions around the world spread fast and easily. “It is hard to control the sources of information, when everyone is a source.” (Yuli Ziv, 2013, p.21) Many designers live in a constant fear of their ideas being copied, due to the “spreadability” of information nowadays.

Yet, businesses understand the importance of online dialogue, mostly for promotional reasons, but also to know customers’ needs and opinions.

Development of technology and social media contributed to the need for transparency.

Consumers require information of products, as they are now used to a free flow of information.

Staying online is a great tool of communication with customers. By knowing consumers needs and becoming more transparent companies can develop more sustainable strategies and products.

“Essentially, consumers are now turned into active participants in the various parts of the industry,

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3. Method (yellow) The purpose of the yellow circle is to help a trend forecaster move deeper with the hunch analysis, finding empirical signs. To step outside what is visible for a common eye, three professionals from the trend forecasting industry were contacted to answer questions on fashion companies’ interest in the topic of sustainability. (The interviews have been placed in appendix 3.)

According to Carsten Beck from the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, companies from various fields are aware of the concept of sustainability and understand its importance.

However, for the time being there is much more being said than done. There is a growing interested in the consumer of the future. Beck underlines the role of contextualization of sustainable solutions and importance of companies observing everyday life behaviour of their consumers.

Dirk Bathen, former CEO of Trendbüro, also notices growing interest of end consumers in ethical and ecological products and services, especially on German market. He shares Beck’s view on sustainability contextualization: designers should first of all focus on a desirable product when addressing their consumers.

Zana Ajvazi, from the department of Textiles and Materials at WGSN says that sustainability is nowadays a “hot topic”, and their clients expect a specialists guidance into topics related to sustainability. Easy access to information driven by fast developing technologies might generate even greater demand for more sustainable solutions in the nearest future.

The experts introduced in this part all together see a huge interested of their clients in the topic of sustainability. There is no doubt that companies are fully aware of current issues and inevitable changes. However, the conclusion that there is more wishful thinking than actual action, arrives not only from the experts, but from the daily life as such. Local production, handcraftsmanship, sustainable materials are still a topic for smaller, niche shops than the big chain shops which still focus on fast fashion. The lack of global action towards sustainability gives the challenge for a sustainable trend forecasting company on how to actually persuade companies to act responsibly. It does however show a gap between today and tomorrow, which gives a room for future actions.

4. Output (green) The general and current drivers, as well as the experts interviews show existing and well developing notion of fashion companies’ interest in the field of sustainability. The DART model analyses general and current drivers in this field, but does not include any notion of the future drivers, which in this particular case are important for setting up the future trends. Therefore, the DART method is essential to validate the hunch, but could not stand on its own in the development of the trend forecast. The DART model together with the analysis of future drivers and scenarios is a powerful platform for creating a trend forecast, which would be the final product of this project. The output of the DART analysis is a trend forecast based on the future scenarios and TED Ten guidelines, aimed at small to mediumsized fashion brands. The trend forecast will be presented during the oral examination.

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III Conclusion Trend forecasting is operating on a living organism. The high number of constantly changing factors and the social nature of trends make information hard to systemize. Therefore, it is so important to understand the anatomy of a trend. Being able to operate within trend networks, acknowledging the cycle of a trend and its size help simplifying and systematizing research process.

The similar purpose has the DART model. Intuition is important in hunting the new stuff, but it is not enough. A trend forecaster can use the model to argue for their choices when conveying the message further into the business, but also, for the sole purpose of validation of the hunch. The past and the present can bring plenty of information relevant to the future, and that is also why the model is a tool to befriend.

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solution scenario

SCENARIO PLANNIG PROCESS

—

SCENARIO CHARACTERISICS

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— MARKETING

I Scenario planning process According to Arden Brummell and Greg MacGillivray, there are five steps in the scenario planning process (2012). The first step is finding the focal question, which in this case in the problem statement asked in the first part of the paper. The main driving force for the scenario are future certainties and emerging from them future scenarios. They are to a great extent dictated by critical uncertainties, such as technological development of human behaviour, which constitute the next step of scenario planning. The scenario framework is based upon those uncertainties and the certain drivers, together with the supporting sustainable guidelines by TED. The last step is to set up characteristics of the scenario. The full idea of the solution scenario is presented on page 28.

FOCAL QUESTION

(how to develop trend forecast to help fashion companies implement sustainability?)

↓ DRIVING FORCES

(future driving factors, certainties)

↓ CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

(uncertainties - “technology”, “environmental regulations”, “human behaviour”)

↓ SCENARIO FRAMEWORK (future scenarios, TED 10)

↓ SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS

(SMEs B2B, for fashion, future drivers dependant, physical book, online platform, etc.)

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The scenario model (author: Sylwia K. Dluzniewska)

II Scenario characteristics - Concept brief The scenario solution is conducted business-to-business, with the target group of small-to medium (SMEs) fashion companies. New businesses require competitive information for solid business planning, and to justify investment to venture capitalists, while mid-sized apparel companies must sustain and strengthen current markets, looking for new opportunities. This is where the trend forecast could aim their activities.

The trend forecast will be based on the future scenarios in the first place.

TED Ten would be a tool providing answers to specific questions within the future scenarios. The trend forecast will use the physical book, which would be issued and actualized twice a year, with the possibility of more frequent publishings depending on the interest and changing future drivers. The book will be complemented by a website where companies could find personalized solutions. Finally, there would be a person-to-person contact at all stages of the trend forecast – the consultancy service.

The core idea of the trend forecast is to present sustainability in a context of visual book. Companies with sustainable profile often present the problem they are trying to fight using emotional approach. In the era of superfluous consumerism, customers are not willing to buy problems. They want a desirable product which would fulfil their needs. The issue with such brands is that they try to sell a problem, instead of a valuable product. The problem has been also underlined by professionals in conducted expert interviews.

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“The Curious Narrator� is a working title for the trend forecast. The universe of the trend forecast will aim at visuals which make the reader think and which does not show finished fashion products. Below are two proposals of a logo.

Appendix 7 contains brainstorm on the visual identity.

Logo idea 1

Logo idea 2

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III Marketing 1. Competitors The number of trend forecasts with more ethical and ecological mindset is getting bigger.

In order to find competitors for the new tool, I looked at the European market of trend forecasting publishing, analysing some of the features I could wish to implement in the new tool. The publications chosen for the competitor analysis are: Collezioni Trend, Scenario, Viewpoint, Trend Union, WGSN, and Nelly Rodi.

Collezioni (Italy) is an Italian publishing group which issue a range of magazines covering different fashion and lifestyle subjects. Collezioni Trend, issued four times a year, handles about the topic of emerging macro trends and underlines the need of tactability, quality, local production, as well as innovation by looking into the future through technologies. Collezioni Trends promotes local and international textile and trimming suppliers.

The Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies offers a wide range of services, including consultancy, talks, and publications. One of publications is the SCENARIO Magazine. SCENARIO provides articles on future trends, both macro and mega. Consumer behaviour, science and technology, or society issues are just some of editors’ interest. SCENARIO does not aim at fashion, but looks at trends in broad perspective, touching very important for the fashion industry aspects.

Viewpoint is a magazine with a strong visual profile, which provides a range of articles related to lifestyle and broadly understood design. Each issue reservers plenty of editorial space to present new brands, products, and concepts. Viewpoint does not focus on sustainability as such but is strongly attached to innovation and the future. Even though it is not a fashion magazine, it acknowledges the field and smoothly incorporates fashion nuances in their articles.

“

Lifestyle and design, closely related, suggest a reflection and an analysis of customs and habits and of society, as well as of the choices by ethical companies that are investing in sustainable products, a clear sign of changing times.”

- Collezioni Trend, Summer 2016 - 2017

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Trend Union, one of the most recognizable trend book amongst fashion designers. Edelkoort’s team deeply understands the sustainability issues and the future scenarios emerging. As seen in the Anti-Fashion Autumn-Winter 2016/17, Trend Union goes a beyond the problem, to the extent they issue a manifesto which presents the fall of fashion we know nowadays. Trend Union’s main focus are societal changes. Apart from the book and a social platform-Trend Tablet, Trend Union organizes speeches in relation to fashion trend forecasting.

WGSN is another popular influential trend publication. WGSN predictions are categorized, each with individual universe, featuring plenty of visuals and a thorough description of future fashion scenarios. Sustainability and innovation are noticeable, but not in the center of attention. Services offered by WGSN are: fashion trend forecasting, lifestyle and interior forecast, consumer panel analysis, retail analytics, and consulting.

Nelly Rodi is a trend forecasting publisher and consultancy agency. Their books present a very clean vision on fashion trends, from the general universe to specific final product possibilities.

The publication is fashion oriented, with space for fields like interior design and others. It gives an overview on finished products rather than leaving space for the reader’s interpretation of the universe. Sustainability as such is an inspiration to many trends but rather on levels of color, texture or print, rather than problem-solving approach.

“

Newness doesn’t seem to be important anymore, a notion replaced by trustworthiness and sustainability. Making the fashion system seem unappealing and out of place. In a world that is turning to an economy of exchange and a society of sharing, the egocentric fashion pathos becomes de facto an old-fashioned. Fashion institutions should turn around and listen to these profound lifestyle changes.”

- Edelkoort, November 2014

In order to find where the new trend forecast would position on the market, I developed a positioning map. However, as it could only exist of two variables, I decided instead to analyse the market competitors through the multi competitor profile tool, where I ranked brands according to five factors: sustainability, contextualization, research depth, relevance to fashion and additional services. The analysis is available in appendix 5 and gives insights in the key strategies used by competitors for the trend forecasting competitiveness.

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2. Strategy Having analyzed the competitors map, the next step is to recognize what economic strategy the tool will pursue. The Strategy Diamond (appendix 6) developed by by D.C.Hambrick and J.W. Frederickson suggest a five-stages model, answering such questions as: -Where will we be active? (Arenas) -How will we get there? (Vehicles) -How will we win the marketplace? (Differentiators) -What will be our speed and sequence moves? (Staging) -How will we obtain our returns? (Economic logic) Below is The Strategy Diamond Model with features of the new trend forecasting within TED Reasearch project:

-

- Expansion speed: geographical expansion only after finding suppliers in the region, creating collaborations with researchers and companies working with sust.tools as a part of growing strategy - Sequence: after grasping SMEs, expansion to large companies and other relevant fields

- Scale advantege: sustainable trend forecasting - Scope: broad supplier network - Unmatchable service: ability to provide link to suppliers, value of research and customization - Product features: physical materials in affordable price as advertisment of serrvices, simplicity of customization, the sustainable online matching tool

Product categogries:trend forecast, research, scenarios, consultancy - Market segments: trend forecasting, sustainability, fashion - Geography: Europe - Value creastion: contextualization of sustainable solutions for fashion

- Joint ventures: collaborations, agents in sustainability production - Licensing: frames for energy use, pollution, transporation - Internal development: internal tools to work with sustainability, TED Ten development - Acquisitions: quality check - Image: contextualization, research and reaction to changes - Customization: personalized consultancy, physical and online platforms - Price: depending on company size and level of customization -Product reliablity: storytelling and visualization, quality of services (research, networking)

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Arenas The main product categories the trend forecast compromises are research, trend forecasting, and consultancy. It would work on such market segments as fashion and sustainability. The geographic area the new tool will operate on is Europe. The value will bring is contextualization of sustainable solutions for fashion companies.

Vehicles Internal development of the tool will be possible thanks to a broad and well maintained network of collaborations, not only in Europe, but on global basis.

The company will develop internal tools and guidelines for working with sustainability. It will set frames for energy use, pollution, and transportation on all stages of product development.

Differentiators Some of the winning factors include continual research and fast reaction to changes, as well as allowing customization of services and combining physical and online platforms. Pricing level will depend on a customer company size and need for customization level of services. Companies will have the possibility of meeting real people and specific solutions at the latter stage of services.

Staging Geographical expansion of the target market will be one of the primary goals.

It should, however, be preceded by investigation of local production market.

The expansion to fields other than fashion would be the next step.

Economic Logic The product and services will be differentiated, allowing companies to spend money accordingly to their budget possibilities. The physical book will be sold in competitive price range, it will work as a promotion tool to further services.

Clients will be offered various kinds of time-based subscriptions.

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discussion

W

orking with trends resemblances walking on a very thin ice, as one can never be 100% certain of what will happen in few years. The bare consumer behaviour can develop into a number of directions, changing the future completely. What is more, companies and consumers prefer to focus on the presence, rather than divagate what will happen in 10 or 30 years.

“

By working systematically and strategically with trend sociology, companies can have a major influence on their brand’s status and life cycle.

If management does not pay close attention to changes in style and taste, am originally innovative lifestyle brand will inevitably lose its original customers. They will look for more innovative products from other brands.”

-Vejlgaard, 2008, p.183

In order to be accurate and not fall into false assumption about future scenarios, it is very important to facilitate the trend forecast with proper research. While collecting materials for the analysis of this paper, it stroke me how much information on various levels is needed to make a solid future assumption, and that trend forecasting it not just finding appealing pictures and creating

moodboards. It is a constant, thorough research on various topics. And even after having done those, one still cannot be 100% sure of the future. The intuition is not very helpful either, unless backed-up with research and solid knowledge.

It might not be enough for a small trend forecasting company to do everything on their own, therefore a solid network of researchers, experts, and partners on all the production level is crucial. It is also important to remember that a trend forecaster needs to have a very open mind and observe the world constantly. An appealing visually physical product is of high importance.

Studying sustainable fashion design, I have realised that the idea of sustainability is really difficult to communicate. It uses very complicated concepts to work with very basic problems. There is a gap between what issues in fashion industry and how much people know about it. In this paper it has been my aspiration to fill in the gap and build a “bridge” to connect those two aspects. Therefore this project falls not far from the topic of communication, and the final book takes from storytelling. The choice of trend forecast over a fashion collection for this paper have been dictated by the personal need of thorough work on the problem and finding proper solutions, before producing another garment collection.

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conclusion

A

braham Lincoln mentioned once that the best way to predict future is to create it. Trend forecasters are in the right place to shape the future. It is a huge responsibility, but gives a lot of possibilities. Trend forecasting combines many different areas of life and science. Marketing, society, history, economic factors and many other drivers made up for what a trend forecasting is. It is responding to a change, but is also very much driven by a change. We already know that the future of fashion will look differently in a few decades, but trend forecasting will probably change a lot as well.

It is what predicting the future is: knowing there are certainties and uncertainties.

It is being able to put those uncertainties into context and find frameworks to work with. It is also being aware that not everything might go as planned, and to have a backup plan.

Those aspects will be setting the general frame for the new trend forecast.

The more precise scheme will use the TED Ten guidelines and future scenarios presented in the paper. Both the elements will need to be constantly monitored and developed as they deal with uncertainties of the future. This is also what the sustainable approach, as well as trend forecasting require – a constant observation of the changing world and reacting to those changes. The ability to adjust to the future changes and a thorough research will make it possible for fashion brands to engage their businesses in developing more sustainable profiles.

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perspective

T

he trend book with a mockup of a website will be showcased during the oral presentation. There would be three main trends included, based on the three scenarios presented earlier in the paper.

The trend book will be the contextualization of the information presented in this project. The main focus will be placed on tangibility and visualization of fashion trends with the sustainable back-end.

The presentation will also elaborate on future ways of expanding.

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ZIV, Y., (2013) Fashion 2.0. Season of Change: A Forecast of Digital Trends Set to Disrupt the Fashion Industry.

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appendices

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1. Gantt Chart

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2. Research Design

43

3. Experts Interviews

47

4. DART Model

48

5. Multi-competitor Profile

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6. Habrick’s Strategy Model

50

7. Visual identity brainstorm

1. Gantt Chart

41

2. Research Design

42

3. Experts Interviews

Phone interview with Carsten Beck*, 17.11.2015.

SD: Firstly, I would like to ask about customers or members of the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies.

Could you shortly describe the Institute member’s profile?

CB: We work with 50 companies, mostly on the Scandinavian market, but with plenty across Europe. The companies come from various fields and are from both private and public sectors, from luxury companies to public institutions. They are companies that would like to broaden their knowledge on future trends. We work with them to develop long-term trends.

SD: In general, what are the most common internal and external issues companies encounter nowadays?

CB: The most influential driver nowadays is change. What companies are often concerned about are customers’ behaviour, and how it will change in the future, how to react and meet their expectations; but they are also concerned about other divers like macroeconomic trends, economic crisis, and of course a range of wild cards unpredictable events, like the horror of terrorists attacks in Paris last week (13.11.2015). The biggest challenge for a contemporary enterprise is how to deal with all those changes, on both external and internal levels.

SD: Does the Institute have any members connected to the fashion industry? What are they mostly interested in?

CB: We do cooperate with luxury jewellery producers like Pandora or Swarovski. We do not have members from the fashion industry per se, but we do occasionally talk with Chanel, and other accessory companies.

Such companies are interested in the new emerging styles and trends, but also retailers, production costs, and of course their consumers. I notice a growing interest in the topic of aging, aging of Europe and the rest of the world. Companies are not sure how to address their customers, since soon they can face the fact that most of their consumers will be not 18-35 but 50 to 70 years old. Aging of the world population is the change that brings the problem of the future consumer. Companies are concerned how to describe the consumer of the future and what their new demands will be.

SD: Are the Institute’s customers in general interested in the topic of sustainability? Do they seek sustainable solutions?

CB: Generally yes, but with a huge “BUT”. Sustainability, resources scarcity, climate changes, and megatrend in general will bring the aforementioned change, and it influences all kinds of organizations. Companies are aware of the changing world and the concept of sustainability. They do already encounter issues which could be solved with more sustainable approach. They also know that it will strongly influence the market in the future.

BUT they do not do anything about it. What is the most pressing concern for me now is that companies are not willing to actually start acting sustainably. They would often say “We need to work much more efficiently with sustainability, BUT it isn’t our main concern right now.”

It is visible on the Danish market as well, when during each Copenhagen Fashion Week we interview companies, and we always get the same answers on them working with sustainability: yes, they work with organic cotton, and look into more sustainable fabrics, and so on. But we have been hearing those stories for 15 years and really much changes. I am still waiting for the biggest fashion brands like Inditex and Primark to move towards this field and make a real change instead of talking a lot but doing very little.

SD: What do you think would make the promotion of sustainability more efficient? What tips would you give trend forecasters to engage customers who are not fully convinced to it?

CB: The thing about sustainability is that it still leaves a lot of uncertainty in the business context. Companies are not sure what they will dealing with in the future, what framework they will be working with from the business perspective. And most importantly, how much importance customers will put on sustainability. We have issued several consumer scenarios, half of them show that consumers will not pay attention to sustainability in the future, while the other two show they will. It is quite tricky to work with the future, as it leaves too much uncertainty.

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The problem is when you interview consumers, you would always have the same results: they have a positive attitude towards sustainable solutions. My suggestion is instead of asking them about sustainability, we should observe their behaviours and draw conclusions. We should observe them on daily basis, see what they do, what they pay attention to. Companies should add sustainability to their customers’ everyday life based on this observation, but without damaging the service they provide. Sustainability should be put in the context of products and services, rather than stand on its own.

SD: Do you think the form and approach of trend forecasting will change in the next decades? What will be trend forecasters most concerned about in the future?

CB: I think trend forecasters will be working mainly with long-term trends. Also, a greater attention will be put into the analysis of a consumer’s behaviour using more anthropological insights.

I hope that in the future we will be able to get even more deeper in the research process than today, and that we will be able to work with a high quality “big” data, better data.

SD: What is the future of the Copenhagen Institute for Future studies? Is there anything in particular you would like to work on?

CB: We currently cooperate with a number of researchers and trend forecasters and we would like to do that in the future. We would like to work of mega trends / scenario analysis but in a more global context. I hope that if you call me in a couple of years and ask about our customers, I could easily say we are be present in a number of countries worldwide, and actively work with clients from Asia and the United States, as we do now on the European market.

SD: Let’s hope for that. And personally, have you recently come across any specific trend or hunch that you find interesting? Are there any macro or megatrends you are in particular interested in?

CB:I truly amazed how little attention is given to biotechnology on the European market. I am convinced that the biotech field will change a lot for everyday people, in various fields of life, also in fashion. I think we should not underestimate the importance of biotechnology.

Other than this, as previously mentioned, changing consumer needs and individualisation across the globe are interesting topics to work on in the future.

* Carsten Beck, a member of the directory board of Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, creator of the BIG FUTURE 2025 platform. Beck holds a degree in economics from the University of Copenhagen. Sector analysis, pharmaceutical industry, retail and consumer trends, labour market developments, sustainability are among Carsten Beck’s topics. Carsten Beck gives presentations on subjects like consumer trends; megatrends, scenario processes, the future of the home, the future of patients, sustainability etc.

Carsten Beck’s has worked as Project Manager on projects carried out for among others The Confederation of Danish Industries, Danish Publishers, Post Denmark, IKEA, 3, pharmaceutical companies, telecommunication companies housing companies etc. (source: http://cifs.dk/authors/scientific-staff/beck-carsten/)

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Semi-structured interview with Dirk Bathen**, 12.11.2015. Questions were sent out through e-mail.

Are your customers interested in the topic of sustainability? What aspects of sustainability are they most interested in?

Most clients are interested in the topic and consider it relevant for their business. The aspects they are interested in has changed over the last years. First, they considered it relevant for PR and communication, now they ask themselves how they can drive their business by means of ethical aspects. As of Germany, the consumer perception of ethical consumption is very differentiated: not only organic products or fair trade, but also regional sourcing/ manufacturing - and most interestingly: it is not only about the product, but also about how the product is manufactured (e.g. good labour conditions, fair wages etc.). The social aspect is becoming more relevant over the the ecological aspect. And it is more about the company and its values than about the product itself.

What do you think would make the promotion of sustainability more efficient? How would you advertise sustainability to fashion consumers?

I am a bit disillusioned in this point. For consumers, a product has to look good, fit well. Aesthetics is most important. People don’t buy ethical products just because they are manufactured ethically correct. It is more like a “second benefit” - after design & product quality. Personally, I wouldn’t advertise a fashion product as “ethical”, I would not actively communicate it, but simply provide “good” products. And I would ensure that my company which produces them lives up to ethical values, treats its employees well, cares about the environment, the people and takes over social responsibility. That´s the “back-end”, and this is more and more relevant in times of total transparency. The “front-end” is the product, and that has simply to be good looking ....

Do you think the form and approach of trend forecasting will change in the next 15-20 years? What will be trend forecasters most concerned it that time?

It already has changed due to internet and social media. You have realtime access to all the relevant topics worldwide. Yesterday you needed a network of correspondents worldwide to collect knowledge, now you just need to follow the right people on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn etc. The mechanics of trend research are still the same - to recognize patterns of change (remember: a trend is not a hype or a fad, it´s long term change!), but the media and the speed to get that knowledge has changed - and will even more change in the future. Today, we have an information overload: So my clients do know the trends themselves, they are more interested in filtering all the information and concluding business implications.

Personally, have you recently come across any specific trend or hunch that you find interesting? If so, what is that?

No. As I am more interested in “client insights” (why do companies decide the way decide”?) than consumer insights (“what are new consumer needs”?), I’m not really concerned about trends anymore. However, I am curious to see how the Internet of Things will change our lives in the next 20 years. People-to-people communication has changed drastically in the last 10 years, and machine-to-machine-communication will change our lives importantly in the next 10 years, I guess .... ** Dirk Bathen, former CEO at Trendbüro from 2008 to 2012. A sociologist with many years of expertise in consumer market research and trend based brand consulting, he works as a self-employed strategy and innovation consultant based in Hamburg, Germany. He wrote the “ethical consumption” trend reports for German retailer Otto Group (2007-2013). (sources: Dirk Bathen, http://www.dirkbathen.de/)

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Semi-structured interview with Zana Ajvazi***, 16.11.2015. Questions were sent out through e-mail.

Are your customers interested in the topic of sustainability? What aspects of sustainability are they most interested in?

Our clients rely on WGSN to provide their business with the essential tools to compete in competitive markets and inevitably in the current climate, sustainability has become a hot topic. From designers to strategists, our clients expect specialist insight into topics related to sustainable design and manufacture and we aim to provide accurate and actionable advice. Within my area of Materials & Textiles, we cover topics related to both material innovation and responsible production.

What do you think would make the promotion of sustainability more efficient? How would you advertise sustainability to fashion consumers?

By championing a sustainable approach to the initial stages of product development within our ‘Material Innovation & Sustainability’ reports, WGSN aims to implement the core foundations for clients to consider sustainability. We promote sustainability by providing essential insights for businesses to consider, and I believe this is an effective strategy which relies on educating brands on different possibilities. At WGSN we also showcase brands and designers that utilise sustainable materials and processes by highlighting their products in our reports, and we hope this will intern encourage and inspire further brands to follow suit.

Do you think the form and approach of trend forecasting will change in the next 15-20 years? What will be trend forecasters most concerned it that time?

Inevitably the world of trend forecasting will evolve in response to cultural, social and economic influences as well as technological advancements. I believe the influx of readily-available information has already influenced trend forecasting, therefore more so than ever clients will expect intelligent foresight alongside effective analysis.

We may even be foreseeing trends within an elongated time-span that excel the current 2-5 year insight that WGSN provides, in response to accessible information and faster developments.

What value could be added to trend forecasting to make it more appealing?

I believe accuracy and immediacy generates appeal in trend forecasting but in the years to come insights may become increasingly tailor-made and delve into more unconventional product categories that respond to the evolving tools required for a business to succeed in new competitive markets.

Personally, have you recently come across any specific trend or hunch that you find interesting? If so, what is that?

Specialising in Materials & Textiles, I respond passionately to new materials, innovative techniques and crosscollaboration projects that rely on multiple minds converging to result in a new initiative that focuses on function not just aesthetic. *** Zana Ajvazi - alumna of Textile Design at Central Saint Martins, currently a textile designer and assistant editor in the department of Textiles and Materials at WGSN.

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4. DART Model

47

5. Multi-competitor Profile

Subjective evaluation of competitors, compatibility rate:

100%

87,5%

75%

64,5%

48

50%

37,5%

25%

12,5%

6. Hambrick’s Strategy Model

Source: Hambrick, D.C and Fredrickson, J.W. (2001) Are you sure you have a strategy? p. 48.

The Academy of Management Executive

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7. Visual identity brainstorm

50

stay curious