GEOPOLITICS

PROSPECTS & OUTCOMES

The ongoing West versus Russia face off has the potential to trigger a new Cold War, unless better sense prevails.

Maj. Gen. Moni Chandi is the CSO at Synergia Foundation& a former Inspector General of the elite National Security Guard.

HISTORY OF CRIMEA & SEVASTOPOL In 1783, Empress Catharine-2 of Russia laid the foundation for the modern city of Sevastopol on the Black Sea. Since then, the port-city on the peninsula of Crimea has remained a strategic naval base. During the Crimean wars (1854-55), the city was contested between French, English, Italians, Turkish and Russian forces. During World War-2, Nazi Germany captured the city, in 1942, after a protracted siege, and, two years later, it was liberated by the Red Army. During the Soviet Era (1945-91), the city was further developed into a key naval base for the Black Sea Fleet. Post the collapse of the USSR (1991), Sevastopol with Black Sea Fleet assets remained contentious issues between the governments of Ukraine and Russia. In 1997, by mutual agreement, Crimea and Sevastopol were awarded to Russia on a longterm lease. De-facto, the Black Sea Fleet, retained control over the port city, and the strategic fleet has always maintained loyalty to Moscow. In the whole of Ukraine, people of Russian ethnicity constitute the largest minority (approx. 30 per cent of 44 million population). However, in the peninsula of Crimea, people with Russian ethnicity constitute the majority (60 per cent of 2.4 million population). Russian ethnicity gets further accentuated in Sevastopol, where they constitute 72 per cent of a 3.4L population.

ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA

In March 2014, after a popular uprising against the Government of Ukraine, the Republic of Crimea & the City of Sevastopol, declared independence from Ukraine. The declaration was followed by a referendum, in which apparently, 96 per cent of the population voted in favour of unification with Russia. In March 2014, 100 nations of the UN voted in favour of UNGA resolution 68/262, which condemned Russia’s annexation of Crimea. India and 57 other nations abstained from voting, 11 nations voted against the resolution, and 24 nations were absent when the voting took place. Seven attempts were also made to introduce resolutions in the UN Security Council, all of which were vetoed by Russia.

UKRAINIAN CRISIS

The current Russian-Ukrainian crisis precedes the annexation of Crimea by Russia (2014). Since 1991, many political & business leaders in Ukraine have been favourably inclined to the joining the EU. The issue of Ukraine joining the EU remains a contentious and polarizing debate, leading to the Euromaidan protests of 2014, in which pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from power, resulting in civil war. In the elections which followed, Petro Poroshenko was elected the 5th President of Ukraine and served full term of office from 2014-19. In 2019, in a surprise turn of events, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former actor, defeated the incumbent and was elected the 6th President of Ukraine, and he currently holds office. Ukraine remains a deeply divided country in the midst of civil war, which has reportedly claimed more than 14,000 lives. From Nov, 2021 onwards Russian forces began build-up on the Ukraine-Russia and Ukraine-Belarus borders. By Feb, 2022, an estimated 1.75 Lakh troops had been mobilised and US President Joe Biden, warned of imminent Russian invasion. What were Russia’s Conditions for Scaling Down? Vladimir Putin has repeat-

It is doubtful if either the U.S. or EU will enter into a direct conflict with Russia. However, such an action would polarise Ukraine’s 44m people further.

P.S. Raghavan is a former Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board, India.

How can India manage the dual pressure it faces from Russia, who has been our traditional ally and the U.S., with whom we have partnered for the Quad?

Geopolitics is a long game. Our media unfortunately treats it like a T20 match. Our relations with the U.S. are very strong, and the Quad is an important strand of the relationship. A strategic underpinning of the India-U.S. relations is the U.S. perspective that a strong India in South Asia is a useful counterpoise to an aggressive China. The U.S. is well aware that, in addition to the maritime challenge that the Indo-Pacific initiatives address, India also has major security and strategic challenges on its continental flank. Partnership with Russia is important in dealing effectively with these challenges. In addition, our defence cooperation with Russia includes sophisticated military equipment that bolsters our defence capabilities (which is in U.S. interest). We are diversifying the sources of our defence acquisitions, but it is a long-drawn-out process. Therefore, while rhetoric and media narratives paint black and white pictures, diplomacy has to pursue a more nuanced approach.”

edly called for restraint in NATO’s progressive occupation of former soviet republics (15 countries have joined NATO, since the demise of the USSR, in 1991). He wants NATO to stop expanding Eastwards, which he refers to as ‘five waves of NATO expansion’. Interestingly, the PRC spokesperson has endorsed this view. On 21 Feb, 2022, President Vladimir Putin recognised Donetsk and Lugansk, as independent republics (Donbass); separate from Ukraine. Two days later, on the morning of 24 Feb, 2022, he announced the commencement of military operations, in Eastern Ukraine. Initially, Russian cyber & missiles attacks were launched on Ukrainian military bases, Air Defence assets and other critical infrastructure. Thereafter, Russian armour and infantry columns crossed the Ukrainian Border

POSSIBLE END STATES (ES)

ES-1 - Russian Roulette - Russian armed forces overwhelm the Ukraine Armed Forces and install a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv. It is doubtful if either the EU or the U.S. will enter into direct conflict with Russia. However, such an action would polarize Ukraine’s 44M people further. Civil unrest in Ukraine by pro-EU groups is likely to turn into an insurgency war. Further, Russia will be at the receiving end of more economic sanctions, driving Russia into the PRC camp. A new Cold War, with US & EU aligned against Asian powers PRC & Russia, is likely to emerge. to the Donbass region and consolidate the newly created republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Pro-European Zelenskyy government remains in power in Kyiv and Western Ukraine. Western Ukraine consolidate steps towards joining the EU and seek participation in NATO. NATO and U.S. move combat forces into the former soviet-bloc country. This time, civil unrest by pro-Russian groups is likely to turn into an insurgency war. NATO and U.S. troops will be drawn into counter-insurgency conflict, which will be unpopular in Ukraine, the U.S. and the EU.

ES-3 - Diplomacy Wins the Day - A credible peace in Ukraine can still be diplomatically achieved, if parties to the conflict respect the following three Red Lines: (a) Russia agrees to withdraw from Eastern Ukraine. (b) NATO & U.S. agree NOT to deploy combat forces in

Ukraine. Existing elements to be withdrawn. (c) Ukraine commits NOT to join either the EU or NATO.

However, countries may equip the Ukrainian armed forces, for self-defence purposes.

ES-3: Diplomacy Wins the Day, bears strategic resemblance to the U.S. Policy of Strategic Ambiguity with the PRC & ROC. That creatively crafted diplomatic policy was built on the basis of a red line each for the three stakeholders (PRC would NOT invade Taiwan, Taiwan would NOT declare independence, and U.S. would NOT recognize Taiwan). The policy earned for its stakeholders 75 years of peace, making the region one of the most prosperous parts of the planet.

More than three decades have passed since the collapse of the USSR and the erstwhile Warsaw Pact. In the 21st Century, is NATO relevant anymore? The U.S. can no longer afford to foot NATO’s bills, and the EU needs justification to meet continued military expenditure. Despite the Russian invasion (liberation) of Eastern Ukraine, is there realism in the threat of Russian invasion of Europe? Would that perceived threat be mitigated, if Russia joins the NATO; they have applied three times! ES 1 and ES2 could usher in a new Cold War, with Asian countries (led by PRC & Russia) aligned against the U.S. and EU.

UKRAINE-RUSSIA CRISIS

Russia and Ukraine at a glance

Russia and Ukraine are the two largest countries in Europe. The neighbours were part of the 15 Soviet republics that made up the USSR.

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

BELARUS MOSCOW

RUSSIA

Population: 144 million

POLAND

SLOVAKIA

HUNGARY

ROMANIA

SERBIA KYIV

UKRAINE

Population: 44 million

DONETSK

CRIMEA LUHANSK

Separatist-held areas of Donetska and Luhansk

Black Sea

Annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014

GEORGIA

KAZAKHSTAN