PROSPECTS & OUTCOMES The ongoing West versus Russia face off has the potential to trigger a new Cold War, unless better sense prevails. Maj. Gen. Moni Chandi is the CSO at Synergia Foundation& a former Inspector General of the elite National Security Guard.
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HISTORY OF CRIMEA & SEVASTOPOL
n 1783, Empress Catharine-2 of Russia laid the foundation for the modern city of Sevastopol on the Black Sea. Since then, the port-city on the peninsula of Crimea has remained a strategic naval base. During the Crimean wars (1854-55), the city was contested between French, English, Italians, Turkish and Russian forces. During World War-2, Nazi Germany captured the city, in 1942, after a protracted siege, and, two years later, it was liberated by the Red Army. During the Soviet Era (1945-91), the city was further developed into a key naval base for the Black Sea Fleet. Post the collapse of the USSR (1991), Sevastopol with Black Sea Fleet assets remained contentious issues between the governments of Ukraine and Russia. In 1997, by mutual agreement, Crimea and Sevastopol were awarded to Russia on a longterm lease. De-facto, the Black Sea Fleet, retained control over the port city, and the strategic fleet has always maintained loyalty to Moscow. In the whole of Ukraine, people of Russian ethnicity constitute the largest minority (approx. 30 per cent of 44 million population). However, in the peninsula of Crimea, people with Russian ethnicity constitute the majority (60 per cent of 2.4 million population). Russian ethnicity gets further accentuated in Sevastopol, where they constitute 72 per cent of a 3.4L population.
ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA
In March 2014, after a popular uprising against the Government of Ukraine, the Republic of Crimea & the City of Sevastopol, declared independence from Ukraine. The declaration was followed by a referendum, in which apparently, 96 per cent of the population voted in favour of unification
It is doubtful if either the U.S. or EU will enter into a direct conflict with Russia. However, such an action would polarise Ukraine’s 44m people further. with Russia. In March 2014, 100 nations of the UN voted in favour of UNGA resolution 68/262, which condemned Russia’s annexation of Crimea. India and 57 other nations abstained from voting, 11 nations voted against the resolution, and 24 nations were absent when the voting took place. Seven attempts were also made to introduce resolutions in the UN Security Council, all of which were vetoed by Russia.
UKRAINIAN CRISIS
The current Russian-Ukrainian crisis precedes the annexation of Crimea by Russia (2014). Since 1991, many political & business leaders in Ukraine have been favourably inclined to the joining the EU. The issue of Ukraine joining the EU remains a contentious and polarizing debate, leading to the Euromaidan protests of 2014, in which pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from power, resulting in civil war. In the elections which followed, Petro Poroshenko was elected the 5th President of Ukraine and served full term of office from 2014-19. In 2019, in a surprise turn of events, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former actor, defeated the incumbent and was elected the 6th President of Ukraine, and he currently holds office. Ukraine remains a deeply divided country in the midst of civil war, which has reportedly claimed more than 14,000 lives. From Nov, 2021 onwards Russian forces began build-up on the Ukraine-Russia and Ukraine-Belarus borders. By Feb, 2022, an estimated 1.75 Lakh troops had been mobilised and US President Joe Biden, warned of imminent Russian invasion. What were Russia’s Conditions for Scaling Down? Vladimir Putin has repeat-
