INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER EDITION

EDITORIAL

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Dear Friends:

Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

Nothing holds much promise and even greater danger for our civilisation than a fully digitalised world. While we stand to reap huge benefits, digital technology can well be our apocalypse, too, if we allow it to master us. We at Synergia Foundation greatly respect this fast-emerging field and a vast array of experts on our panel to give their valuable insights on its multifaceted aspects. As a cover story of this issue, we touch upon the impact of digitalisation on an inclusive future that benefits all segments of human society and the danger that quantum computing poses to our dreams of a safe data-driven future. Our President dwells upon his forte, the subject of Citizencentric cybersecurity, so that besides critical infrastructures, the common man’s cyber vulnerabilities are also addressed.

After a nearly half-century hiatus, the race for landing human beings on the lunar surface has started again with a new player in the race- the People’s Republic of China. This time around, the race is going to be much closer, with many aspirants lining up to start the colonisation of distant planets. Our article on ‘Back to the Moon’ covers all this and more. Continuing with technology, we look at how EDA is changing the world, chip by chip. In the techno-medical field, we look at the ‘bionic pancreas’ that can stem the flood of diabetes threatening to plague mankind in ever-increasing numbers.

In the geopolitics section, this issue examines the implications of rising big-power rivalry in the Arctic, where climate change is bringing in irreversible changes, attracting resource-hungry powers to its riches. In the same vein, we look at the rising tensions between the West and the China-Russia alignment, making a new Cold War almost inevitable.

European events are important for the globe, and we at Synergia give it due attention. In this issue, we look at the elections in Italy, the future trajectory of the war in Ukraine, and the challenges that Ms Liz Truss faces.

The world is facing a recession, and all eyes are on the U.S. economy, where for the first time in two decades, the Fed Res has been raising interest rates, with implications for the global economy. We also examine the steady rise of the ‘green back’, its reasons and consequences. The pandemic led to the collapse of many supply chains, and we look at how to build resilience into them by taking a cue from developing geopolitical situations.

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

In an expanding digital universe, digital inequities are no longer acceptable if the world has to make real progress.

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America has once again taken the lead in the fresh race to the lunar surface with its ambitious Artemis Mission.

Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has polarized the world, disrupted international supply chains and created economic distress in Europe

Liz Truss has thrown the dice to fulfil her promises; will it boomerang on her and her party’s fortunes?

EDA is the emerging software that is changing the world, chip by chip.

A bionic pancreas could turn out to be the ultimate silver bullet for diabetes.

A supply chain is as strong as its most vulnerable link; with the disruption of one element, the entire pipeline will grind to a halt.

Anticipation of the Federal Reserve hiking up interest rates to combat recession sends shivers down the collective spine of global economics.

ARCTIC BATTLE LINES BEEN DRAWN?

As relations between Russia and the West head South, the resource-rich Arctic is emerging as the next battle space.

Sand has come to occupy a principal role in industrialized societies and is now viewed as a precious resource, thereby prompting another front in gray zone warfare.

Can AI surmount technical and capacity constraints for large-scale adoption in business applications?

EDA is the emerging software that is changing the world, chip by chip.

With digital technology permeating every aspect of our lives, the associated risks have grown exponentially and need urgent corrective action.

Amidst the blood and conflicts of Russian history, Gorbachev leaves behind a mark of peace and freedom, which is once more a threat in the region.

The Dollar is riding a rising wave that is not-so-good news for the rest of the world.

The flow of people across sovereign boundaries is being monitored and analysed by AI.

Will China subdue the United States without risking a war to dominate the Indo-Pacific?

The Meloni government represents more continuity with Berlusconi’s 2001-06 and 2008-11 spells than change.

By taking on the allpowerful Najib Razak and his constituency, is the judiciary in corruptionplagued Malaysia trying to send a strong message of revisionism?

In a desperate bid to grab a piece of the African pie, Tokyo has offered an investment bonanza to Africa.

TECHNOLOGY

MEDICAL

RUSSIA

HUMAN INTEREST

A DIGITAL FUTURE FOR ALL

In an expanding digital universe, digital inequities are no longer acceptable if the world has to make real progress.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

The digital revolution has changed life in ways previously considered unimaginable; new digital tools and techniques are delivering far-reaching material benefits and solving intracta ble problems apart from providing global connectiv ity at affordable rates.

The UN predicts that digital transformation and the cli mate crisis could be one of the “two seismic shifts that will shape the 21st century.” COVID-19 has succeeded in accel erating this technological change. But there is a darker side to the digital world. It is generating tension in the most un expected ways- by fuelling inequalities between and within nations- with millions finding themselves locked out of the knowledge economy. There is also the risk of mental health and the creation of monopolistic market forces by a few monolithic corporations. This is evident in the creation of new digital hubs spread out between Silicon Valley in the U.S. and Stockholm in the West to Tokyo/ Singapore/ Seoul /Beijing/ Bangalore in the East.

Digital access can be correlated with overall econom ic development in any society. The UN has estimated that nearly half the world’s population, the majority of whom are women and mostly in developing countries, remain offline.

LIVING UP TO ITS POTENTIAL

Access to the digital world is multi-dimensional and spans connectivity, skills, scale, and access to data. Thus far,

Digital access can be correlated with overall economic development in any society. The UN has estimated that nearly half the world’s population, the majority of whom are women and mostly in developing countries, remain offline.

digitalisation’s reach has remained uneven across all these dimensions from country to country.

The U.S. and China have been clear front runners while Europe has lagged. Within countries, some sectors have made more use of the digital revolution than others, such as information and communications technology, media, and finance. Construction, hospitality, and agriculture sectors remain primarily untouched in many countries. The govern ment and education sectors also took time to catch up.

During the last decade, artificial intelligence (AI) brought about another wave of digital innovation; in voice recogni tion, natural language learning and translation, robotics, au tonomous vehicles, algorithmic prediction etc. AI’s spread is uneven, with the U.S., China and India being regarded as the front runners. Combined with other digital-enabled en hancements, AI shapes the “Second Machine Age” and “the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

A SYSTEMS APPROACH

The Global Lighthouse Network (GLN), established by the World Economic Forum, is a platform for sharing best practices, learning, facilitating collaboration, scaling inno

vations, setting benchmarks, and celebrating success. By early 2022, over 100 facilities around the world had earned a “lighthouse” designation—meaning they serve as examples to guide others—including six “sustainabil ity lighthouses” that demonstrated how new industrial operations could contribute to the green transition.

Western Digital, the American hard disk drive and data storage company, has earned several lighthouse designations, with its Penang, Malaysia facility earning the “sustainability lighthouse” designation in 2022. This intelligent factory had expanded its volume by over 40 per cent per year over four years and simultaneously delivered dramatic improvements in its sustainability. At the same time, it reduced its energy consumption by over 40 per cent, its water use by 45 per cent, and its waste by 16 per cent. This resulted in a drop in green house gas emissions at the Penang facility to nearly 40 per cent.

Western Digital achieved these combined business and sustainability results by integrating the best of the digital revolution into its operations. At the heart of the change lies a network of more than 1,000 industrial In ternet of things (IIoT) sensors monitoring equipment and utility systems, all of which are linked to an ad vanced analytics plant monitoring system.

USHERING EQUALITY

The digital revolution can become the essence of capitalism’s power and potential for change. As envis aged by the Trilateral Commission, the fifth stage of capitalism should work towards eliminating inequali ties resulting from unequal access to the digital revolu tion. To bridge the gaps and improve capitalism’s work ing, the Commission has suggested some key pointers.

To bring about transformational change in the world economic order and to make it more sustainable and inclusive, the digital revolution must be impressed into service without further delay. It would involve estab lishing inclusive national digital strategies, closing the connectivity gaps, promoting universal digital literacy, empowering workers with digital tools, establishing hubs to disperse digital innovation, and transforming government operations.

Digital technology is shaping history. But there is also the sense that it is running away with us. Where will it take us? Will our dignity and rights be enhanced or diminished? Will our societies become more equal or less equal? Will we be come more, or less, secure and safe?

The Trilateral Commission has emphasised the need to address the multiple digital divides so that no person or individual is prevented from reaping the full benefits of digitalisation. The Commission recommends setting up a forum for collaboration across a range of digital is sues covering scientific and technical to economic and commercial to security, military, and law enforcement.

This forum could be an alliance of “techno-democ racies” with like-minded technological leaders. The forum would build a digital order that preserves and promotes open societies, combats the illiberal use of emerging digital technologies, and maximises these in novations’ economic potential.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB), set up after the G20 summit of 2009 in response to the 2008-09 global financial crisis, provides a model that could work for the digital ecosystem. The FSB-like group could set up common standards- in digital technologies and defini tions of cybercrime, common approaches to antitrust rules, and a framework to address ethical issues aris ing from AI and harmonising privacy issues versus data ownership. Let’s not forget that global connectivity and economies of scale require interoperability and stan dard data portability and transfer rules.

As a long-term goal, this forum could look to ad dress more sensitive topics such as online propaganda, disinformation, and cyber threats. It could also coordi nate investments and share intelligence among demo cratic countries to counter autocratic regimes’ misuse of digital technologies.

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) also need digital technologies to narrow inequalities. They assist micro-entrepreneurs in connecting to new markets, allow children on the move to access edu cation and give vulnerable communities a voice. The rapid growth of telemedicine, which enables doctors to reach remote areas, is just one opportunity with the potential to save millions of lives. The Giga initiative to bring every school in the world online is an example of one such effort.

Digital transformation, like the climate crisis, is a global issue that calls for global solutions. Social media

The answers to these questions depend on our ability to work together across disciplines and actors, across na tions and political divides. We have a collective respon sibility to give direction to these technologies so that we maximize benefits and curtail unintended consequences and malicious use.

ANTÓNIO GUTERRES,

Secretary-General of the United Nations, the ninth person to hold this title. A member of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Guterres served as prime minister of Portugal from 1995 to 2002.

is a prime example which has the power to transform and, at the same time, threaten with disinformation. Social media platforms are also used to fuel genocide, exploit children and spread an atmosphere of mistrust. The UN has created the office of the Envoy of Technolo gy to address technology issues and digital cooperation.

The UN’s new Digital Strategy 2022-2025 aims to support countries and communities to use digital tech nology as a lever to help drive down inequality, support inclusivity, tackle climate change, and open-up econom ic opportunities. Digitalisation forms a vital component of the UN’s efforts to meet SDGs.

A DIGITALLY ENABLED INCLUSIVE FUTURE

Digital Financial Inclusion has grown to become an important part of the digital revolution. Institutions in cluding the G20 and global financial regulators have pri

The world faces increasingly complex and in terconnected challenges. The achievement of essential priorities such as elimination of poverty and in equality, sustainable natural resource management and conflict prevention require joint action and innovative methods. New digital technologies, without a doubt, are one of them. On the one hand, they provide broad op

oritised the game changing potential of digital financial inclusion. “Digital financial inclusion” is broadly un derstood as digital access to and use of formal finan cial services by excluded and underserved populations. This automatically brings in the dimension of afford ability and sustainability to ensure that formal financial services reach all parts of the population.

Digital financial services involve three elements in cluding a digital transactional platform, retail agents, and the use of a device by customers and agents to en able a transaction. This is quite often a mobile phone. There has been an explosion of new digital transaction al platforms such as bKash in Bangladesh, which has already reached a quarter of the country’s 160 million adult population in its first two years. These platforms not only facilitate easy payment solutions for the vast majority but also provide a safe place for storage of valuable assets who do not have access to formal

portunities for positive transformation of the economy and the society. On the other hand, if such technologies are not used ethically, deliberately, and openly, they do not create equal opportunities for all - they pose risks. Global discussions on the use of artificial intelligence for the public good need to be more representative and inclusive.

ALEXANDRA SOLOVIEVA, has held a number of positions with UNDP including Deputy Country Director in India, Programme Specialist in Asia and the Pacific region, and Head of the UN Resident Coordinator’s office in Lao PDR.

banking institutions. Digital transaction platforms in turn assist in financial inclusion by providing a means to access financial services as well as generating data. This information can further be used to design financial products for low-income communities.

Such products have already been taken up at a fast rate in communities across Africa which bear testament to their significant demand. Digital financial inclusion has thereby acted as propeller for retail financial service delivery.

The digital financial services ecosystem has become a priority across the globe for its role in reduction of poverty by enabling financial inclusion. Leading inter national organisations such as the World Bank, and the UN have reposited faith in digital finance to achieve sustainability goals.

Digital inclusion is really about deliberately wanting to ensure that those less likely to be able to be early adopters or users are actually catered for. Digitalization certainly is all about how we design digital ecosystems that allow, for example, young peo ple to have access where cost is not an excluding factor or women have access to technology that in traditional contexts may not have been allowed access to use these. So all of this is an intentional approach to ensuring that

Assessment

It is a blotch on human nature that corporate profit remains the driving force behind the digital revolution, with only marginal spillovers being made available to their poorer cousins by the rich and powerful developed world. This mad race for commercial supremacy must give way to a more equitable technology sharing with no strings attached.

The extremely high cost of R&D associated with cutting-edge technological innovation is the biggest stumbling block as innovators are forced by economic compulsions to recover their tremendous investments. In the real world, this fact of life cannot be ignored, and a time lag between the Global North and South should be acceptable regarding the universal use of advanced digital technology.

everybody can benefit because by virtue of not being in cluded, you will create greater inequality as our future is digital. If you’re not part of it, you’re out of it. Inclu sion needs to be at the centre of the digital transforma tion. You need to consider society as a whole, You need to build digital ecosystems that work for start-ups, for entrepreneurs, for coders and programmers, but also ensure people aren’t left behind. Connection alone isn’t enough.

ACHIM STEINER is a Brazilian-born environmentalist who currently serves as the administrator of the United Nations Development Programme and chairman of United Nations Sustainable Development Group.

THE DAWN OF THE CRYPTOPOCALYPSE??

Cryptographic algorithms could deliver the coup de grace to our dreams of a safe data-driven future.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Scientific evolutions have historically been the driving force behind mankind’s march to su premacy. Advancements in existing fields of science and technology act as a powerful catalyst for the creation of more advanced systems.

Functional computing research and development has revolutionized science, technology and society in less than a century. Around the turn of the 20th century, the first prac tical computer could not do mathematical operations inde pendently. Nowadays, computers can solve issues quickly and accurately if the input is correct and the set of instruc tions, logical.

To describe nature on an atomic scale, quantum me chanics evolved as a field of physics in the early 1900s. This led to technological advancements like transistors, lasers, and magnetic resonance imaging. Before 1982, physicist Richard Feynman argued that computing based on classical logic could not tractably process calculations representing quantum processes. Thus, combining quantum mechanics and information theory received little attention. However, when mathematician Peter Shor created a quantum algo rithm in 1994 that could effectively determine the prime factors of big numbers in a time of practical importance and was superior to state-of-the-art classical algorithms, interest in quantum computing skyrocketed.

THE QUANTUM AGE

While classical and quantum computers aim to find

While classical and quantum computers aim to find solutions, they do so in distinct ways by manipulating data. Superposition and entanglement have become two of the core principles of quantum computing. The main distinction between quantum and traditional computers is how quantum computers use probabilities and entanglement. According to some estimates, quantum computers will operate 158 million times faster than the fastest supercomputers available today!!

solutions, they do so in distinct ways by manipulating data. Superposition and entanglement have become two of the core principles of quantum computing. A common miscon ception about quantum computers is that they accelerate computation by simultaneously attempting every solution to a problem. It is best to maximize the likelihood that the measurement taken after a calculation will yield the proper result.

The main distinction between quantum and traditional computers is how quantum computers use probabilities and entanglement. According to some estimates, quantum com puters will operate 158 million times faster than the fastest supercomputers available today!!

Quantum-resistant cryptography is a fast-emerging area of quantum development which could have far-reaching consequences for the future of cyber-security. Current pub lic-key cryptography techniques rely on challenging mathe

matics to transfer data securely.

The issue is that specific quantum computers can crack current public key encryption within minutes since they can quickly solve these mathematical puz zles. In essence, this renders the encryption offered by public key encryption meaningless. In such a situa tion, quantum-resistant cryptography becomes a saving grace.

A GAME CHANGER

Although quantum machines are still in their infan cy, when they grow to be sufficiently large, they will be able to execute operations tenfold quicker than con ventional computers. Its potential impact can be seen across a plethora of industries ranging from energy and health care to finance and technology. It can aid in dis covering new molecules and materials spanning multi ple fields of science and could also play a revolutionary role in speeding up drug discovery. It could also help manage and optimize complex systems with variables from supply-chain challenges to assessing national de fence stratagems.

Quantum computing can potentially have the capa bility to speed up the process of training complex ma chine learning systems; in some cases, even halving the time taken by a classical computer!!

Quantum computers will also be excellent at de crypting the secret keys for the most common encryp tion schemes currently in use. Experts in cryptology have been in a race against time to create quantum-re sistant or post-quantum algorithms that should be im mune to attacks from quantum computers to prepare for a future privacy apocalypse.

THE LONG ROAD AHEAD…

Quantum Computers have, without a doubt, ex panded our capabilities. Still, they have forced us to confront a fresh set of issues related to the dangers they bring to security and encryption. And given their complexity and the small variety of tasks for which they have been demonstrated to be more effective than clas

sical computer technology, some people believe that quantum computers may never be helpful.

The fundamental units of quantum computing, called qubits, are volatile in a physical state, which is what they must do to represent data and enable com putation.

This means that for them to be helpful, even for a short period, they must be maintained in a super-cooled environment. As a result, only the most prominent businesses and well-funded research institutions can now afford to possess quantum computing systems. In turn, this renders evaluating use cases a costly and time-consuming procedure.

While it seems quantum computing could revo lutionize multiple industries, its rise could severely threaten cybersecurity. Its faster processing speed of data to identify actionable insights can also arm threat actors to execute brute-force attacks.

Despite the attention that the quantum technology field has received, the advancements in quantum com puting today and in the future depend on several en ablers, including labour preparation, standardization, and the availability of a trained workforce.

Assessment

New cutting-edge technology creates challenges for decision-makers to maintain awareness, develop understanding, or know when and how to respond due to the uncertainties of the new technology. The success or failure of Quantum Computing balances on the ability of our leaders to adapt to this rapidly changing but fragmented landscape.

Although it is unclear when quantum computers will be usable on a large scale, governments and corporations must take action now as this is a unique period in modern technology; a time in history where everyone can get ready for technology as it is still developing and taking shape.

HYDRAULICS

AEROSPACE

AUTOMOTIVE & METALLURGY

MEDICAL

BACK TO THE MOON!!

America has once again taken the lead in the fresh race to the lunar surface with its ambitious Artemis Mission.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

On August 29, NASA announced the abortion of the launch of its Artemis 1 Space Launch System, the most powerful rocket designed to date. Coupled with its high-tech Orion space mod ule, the Artemis is the latest generation successor to the Apollo mission, which will take American astro nauts not only back to the Moon but even beyond.

America is not alone in this new race to the Moon, China, Russia and even big private corporations eye the resources of the Moon and the solar system.

WHY THE HIATUS?

When the Lunar module of Apollo 17 took off from the surface of the Moon on December 14, 1972, few realised that it was the last time man would walk on the surface of the Moon, at least for the next half a century or so. The landing had established several records, including the longest stay on Moon (over 74 hours). But it was not to be repeated, and Apollos 18 to 20 were scrubbed.

The official reason given was that the technological pa rameters to be tested had been achieved. The truth was that it cost too much; already, over $ 20 billion dollars had been expended. As Mr Jim Bridenstine (NASA Administrator 2018-21) put it, “This was a contest of political ideologies. It was a contest of economic ideologies. It was a contest of technological prowess. And in this great contest of great powers, the United States of America was determined to win.” Since the political objective of having landed a man on the Moon had been achieved repeatedly, and the Soviets had been decisively beaten in the space race, there was little sense in going about it only for expensive technology and

In the absence of interplanetary regulations, land and resources in space are up for grabs and there for the taking by the first explorers. This could see the birth of new colonisation, which could prove even more disastrous than the last one.

research-based missions. Also, public enthusiasm, and sup port, for such extravaganza was fast fading in a nation deep ly divided by the Vietnam war and the civil rights movement ,and disillusioned with the government after the Watergate scandal.

But NASA had not totally given up on its lunar ambi tions, even as it pursued its other objectives like the Sky Lab, ISS and the shuttle programme. However, this time around, the journey to the Moon would be about a more sustained human presence there. As Mr Bridenstine put it, “This time when we go to the Moon, we’re going to stay. That’s what we’re looking to do.”

What about the other leading protagonist in the space race-the USSR? Having stolen the march over the U.S. through Sputnik (1957), the first animal in orbit (Dog Lai ka-1957), Luna 2 (crash-landed on the lunar surface in 1959) and the first man in space (Yuri Gagarin-1961), the USSR was unable to financially sustain the momentum.

Of course, Soviet lunar probes that orbited the Moon in the early 1950s were much before American space crafts. Once the U.S. brought to bear its vast technological and financial might to win the race to the Moon, the Soviets realised they were no match. The Soviet military, which controlled the space programme, decided that they would rather make massive investments in the new ICBMs and nu

clear warheads to achieve strategic parity, thus starving the space programme of funds.

WHY THE RENEWED INTEREST?

A relatively junior Brigadier General of the U.S. Air Force said in 1958 while speaking to the U.S. Aero Club of Washington, “He who controls the moon, controls the earth.” This perhaps spurred the first space race. As we are on the verge of a second space race, his pre diction can be modified to read, “Whoever controls the moon controls the gateway to the solar system.”

This new space race is aiming for much higher stakes and is witnessing many more participants, including pri vate corporations. And this time, the Moon is not going to be merely a photo op for flag planting, but the human imprint could be more lasting and greater exploitative. Some say it could be the gateway to other planetary ex ploitations and a waystation to Mars.

The finish point for the new moon race is the lunar south pole, where it is believed ice, the building block of life, is available in abundance and close to the surface. India’s moon probe Chandrayaan had also indicated the presence of ice in the area.

Per NASA, the real breakthrough was achieved when its Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) offered a new way of looking at the Moon. A 106-inch telescope mounted on a Boeing 747SP flying at 45,000 feet, well above the water vapour-laden Earth’s atmosphere, can detect the specific wavelengths of wa ter molecules. It has discovered a considerable depos it of ice in a crater named Clavius. Water will not only keep astronauts alive on the Moon but can also be split into hydrogen and oxygen, which in turn can be used as fuel to power probes deeper into space.

Unlike the Moon Race of the 1950s and ‘60s, today, it is more about economic gains-mining of rare elements and manufacturing in a gravity-free environment. How ever, rulers continue to tom-tom national prestige when they sell their space plans to a discerning public in de mocracies. China has no such problems as its President for life can plan over decades without worrying about

the next election.

The space age today is not only about competing national interests but also includes mega-corporates eyeing huge profits. Elon Musk has made it clear that through Space X, he wishes to fulfil his dream of colo nising Mars (and even beyond) for human habitation. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin is contemplating the lucra tive field of luxury travel to space for which the super wealthy will be doling out vast sums.

THE AMERICAN STAKE

Named ‘Artemis’, the twin sister of Apollo from Greek mythology, the American programme for return to the Moon perhaps indicates that this time around, women will join their male counterparts in the moon landings. This is expected to be achieved before the end of this decade. Artemis 1, whose launch has been twice aborted due to niggling mechanical problems, will be carrying out an exploratory lunar orbit along with Ori on, the lunar module, and return for a safe splashdown on the Pacific. Hopefully, Artemis III will land a man/ woman on the Moon by 2024, at a total cost of about $86 billion. The Apollo programme had then cost $28 billion (equivalent to $ 280 billion at today’s prices) as per figures put out by the American Planetary Society.

As per the NASA website, the logic for the moon landing is “for scientific discovery, economic benefits, and inspiration for a new generation of explorers: the Artemis Generation. While maintaining American lead ership in exploration, we will build a global alliance and explore deep space for the benefit of all.”The first stage will be the construction of the ‘Artemis Base Camp’ on the Moon’s surface and the orbital station Gateway. From these two outposts, robots and astronauts will sally forth for further exploration. It is planned to land human beings on the Moon in 2024 and commence the construction of the Base Camp by 2025. But considering the delays in the launch of Artemis I itself, these time lines appear a bit ambitious.

THE CHINESE CHALLENGE

China has clearly left behind its mentor Russia in

the space race. A series of achievements in the recent past leaves little doubt that Beijing is a force to con tend with in space and is ready to give its arch-rival, the U.S., a run for its money. Having successfully launched its Tiangong Space Station, the Mars Rover, the Lunar Rover and the construction of its orbiting space station mark the maturity of its space programme.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp (CASC), like NASA, is the principal agency running the space programme.

Its pride is the Chang’e Project, the Chinese plan to build a lunar base in collaboration with Russia. China has planned six reconnaissance missions to the Moon till 2025. Chang’e4 was the first lunar rover sent in 2018, and as per the Chinese, it is still operational. Chang’e-5 brought samples from the Moon, helping the Chinese decide on the best locations to build the base. Other probes are to follow, and China plans to begin its base at the south pole by 2026. To be constructed through at least five missions, the base will include a command centre and supporting ancillaries like power and com munications. Like the U.S., this base too will facilitate exploration on the Moon and beyond.

However, competing politics and geopolitical faceoff may delay the Chinese efforts. The U.S. Commerce De partment’s Bureau of Industry and Security last August sanctioned four CASC research facilities for threatening U.S. National interests. This will have a spillover effect as Japanese, South Korean, and EU suppliers will think twice before selling sophisticated electronics to CASC.

IS RUSSIA STILL IN CONTENTION?

For some time now, Russia, too, has been re-acti vating its moon programme. As per ROSCOSMOS, the Luna 25 space vehicle is ready for launch and is under

going intensive testing with a projected launch date sometime in October this year. The Luna 25 programme was in collaboration with the European Space Agency, a partnership that may not have survived Ukraine. Also, it is not clear how the extensive sanctions will impinge on the timelines for the launch of Luna 25.

Luna 25 will land a rover on the Moon at the South Pole. In the entire programme, 15 missions have already been conducted which landed or orbited the Moon.

However, with a struggling economy and facing a crippling sanctions regime, it is not clear how vibrant the Russian Moon programme is. Of course, the Chi nese will make the most of the Russian predicament to make collaboration with their Chang’e project lucrative. Last year, the Chinese National Space Administration signed an MOU with Roscosmos for jointly building the lunar base by 2036.

Assessment

In the absence of interplanetary regulations, land and resources in space are up for grabs and there for the taking by the first explorers. This could see the birth of new colonisation, which could prove even more disastrous than the last one. Technology has not made humankind a more considerate race, and with the empowerment of mega-corporations, commercial greed has only become sharper. So, we may be heading for the geopolitics of space.

Policymakers from across the globe must collaborate to give shape to a regulatory regime which will give correct direction and a measure of control over the exploitation of planets. The benefit of space exploration should be to mankind as a whole and not to a few select nations or commercial enterprises only.

EDA is the emerging software that is changing the world, chip by chip.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

THE NEW FACE OF THE CHIP WAR RESEARCH TEAM

E lectronic Design Automation (EDA) combines hardware, software and services aimed at one goal -designing and manufacturing advanced semiconductors that are impossible to make without it.

The EDA manufacturing industry began about 40 years ago, and since then, EDA has delivered about a ten-million-fold increase in design productivity. And with the current prev alent use of semiconductors for AI, fully autonomous cars, the Internet of Things and more, EDA must deliver more productivity than ever before.

WHAT IS EDA?

In today’s day and age, advanced semiconductors contain multiple chips with billions of technologies packed into one tiny form factor. With each passing year, the chip industry leaders must follow Moore’s law which states that the num ber of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles every two years. Since the working of the form factor must be flawless while meeting demanding power goals and per formance timings on extremely tight schedules, there is no way to do this without the support of EDA to aid design and manufacturing.

There is also a need for pre-verified building blocks to re duce design time. Architectural analysis, simulation, verifi cation, physical design, semiconductor IP- a reusable unit of logic, cell, or chip layout design, and application software development are all enabled by EDA. Not surprisingly, EDA has become the prime driver in improving efficiency and ac

The EDA manufacturing industry began about 40 years ago, and since then, EDA has delivered about a ten-million fold increase in design productivity.

celerating technological progress as the complexity of chip design continues to rise.

REFIGURING THE CHIP ECOSYSTEM

Modern chips have millions of gates, and billions of tran sistors as each gate consists of thousands of transistors. To design a chip is to figure out how to make it do what you want.

EDA is the system-of-chips (SoC) that makes chip cre ation possible. It has different tools for different kinds of chips. Designers start with a plethora of options to optimize performance and cost. The end-to-end journey of chip cre ation traverses from early specs to a robust end product. There are multiple building blocks to the formation of a chip, but no one person or company can do it alone.

The concept of the design flow becomes essential to de sign a chip that functions appropriately, which comprises the steps needed to create a chip, which is then fed into the EDA software for the computer to follow. Each function in the design flow is run by a tool or a set of tools. The flow be gins with a logic design which decides its purpose and how it functions. After this, the software system goes on to the verification process, which is run multiple times to avoid er rors. Verification is one of the most crucial parts of the de sign process, taking up to 70 per cent of the time needed to create the chip. The next step of the process comprises de

sign implementation again, but in the physical sense- it includes information on how the transistors are placed and connected. EDA also plays a significant role in the manufacturing process of chips.

The embedded software, semiconductor manufac turing, and increasingly micro-mechanical and photon ics industries—all of which are continuing to be min iaturised and integrated into electronic systems—are closely tied to the EDA sector.

While the semiconductor sector still makes up the majority of users of electronic design automation soft ware, the introduction of various trends related to the digital revolution has opened up a much wider mar ket for IC and complicated PCB design. Technologies like 5G telecommunication, machine learning, cloud computing, edge computing, and cybersecurity have emerged as essential elements of strategic roadmaps across all businesses. The market for EDA electronics software is being driven by this increased demand on semiconductor and high-tech electronics vendors to in novate.

CHALLENGES TO EDA ECOSYSTEM

With the exponential growth of the semiconductor industry in the coming years, the challenges that the in dustry faces are also ever increasing.

As the design of the chips get larger and more com plex, data management and complexity pose a huge threat to the EDA ecosystem. In addition, with the EDA ecosystem spanning multiple geographies, collateral and the environment of design becomes a larger prob lem. To stay ahead of the game while maintaining mar gins, reusing of IP has also become a key driving force in the EDA game. Among another deterrent to the growth of the EDA could be its limited customer base, as the major consumers are the large semiconductor indus tries and due to acquisitions within the company, it has a bleak future.

A BRAVE NEW WORLD

EDA has tremendous leverage and economic effect.

The global market for EDA tools, estimated at US$9.1 Billion in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of US$14.9 Billion by 2026. Once the EDA industry chained foundation problems, the entire IC industry (Integrated circuit) will be significantly affected.

The EDA industry is also the most vulnerable to cru cial areas of foreign players. In addition, EDA also plays a pivotal role in slashing the costs of design and chip manufacturing. In some cases, EDA has helped reduce the manufacturing time from 24 months to about two weeks!!

The chip industry has become the new face of the tech war between two global tech giants – China and the United States of America. But China is unlikely to be affected by the decision of the United States to restrict the export of EDA software in the short term because chip foundries in China are not advanced enough to make the GAAFET chip structure. However, in the long run, it could prove to be disastrous as they could fall behind in the great semiconductor race, which critics say is already lagging by about eight years.

However, China will likely remain among the fast est growing in this cluster of regional markets. Led by countries such as Australia, India, and South Korea, the market in Asia-Pacific is forecast to reach US$774.6 Mil lion by the year 2026.

Assessment

The growth of the global market is set to be driven by the strong performance of the semiconductor industry and increasing adoption across diverse industry verticals. EDA tools will continue to drive the innovation for building smaller and more powerful chips at a lesser cost. Mastery of EDA will lead to primacy in the high-tech contest. From current trends, the U.S. appears to be holding the lead.

Within the technology market, the EDA market may be small. But it would do well for relatively minor players, like India, to seize fleeting opportunities and become a key player in product development.

A LASTING CURE?

A bionic pancreas could turn out to be the ultimate silver bullet for diabetes.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), about 422 million people worldwide have diabetes, the majority living in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.5 million deaths are directly attributed to diabetes each year.

Around a century after the discovery of the life-chang ing drug insulin, the ever-increasing tribe of diabetics can breathe a sigh of relief as a novel discovery suggests light at the end of the tunnel. Scientists claim that by replacing the pancreas with a bionic one, the balanced production of insulin in the human body could be restored.

Although there are many types of diabetes, type 1 diabe tes is distinct from type 2 diabetes which is far more prev alent. The latter primarily affects and is frequently linked to obesity. Type 1 diabetes is most commonly diagnosed in childhood and is brought on by an immune system re sponse that targets the body’s cells that make insulin in the wrong way. Synthetic insulin is required for the survival of type 1 diabetics. To reduce the chances of long-term prob lems such as nerve damage, renal failure, and heart disease, they must strive to maintain their blood sugar levels within a specified range. Traditionally, this entails measuring their blood sugar several times daily with “finger sticks” and ad ministering the appropriate insulin dosage.

HI-TECH CURES

With the rapid advancement of technology, novel quick and long-acting insulin analogues and more physiological insulin-delivery devices, such as intelligent insulin pumps, are increasingly in use. Subcutaneous continuous sensors,

One of the most promising areas of the bionic pancreas is real-time feedback between insulin transport and glucose levels, thereby mimicking the function of the missing β-cells. Studies discovered that type 1 diabetic adults and children who used the bionic pancreas for three months showed a decrease in their average blood sugar levels without a rise in potentially harmful blood sugar lows.

which give frequent, real-time, and minimally invasive glu cose tests, are becoming more widely available as glucose monitoring advances. Through the integration of an insulin pump and continuous glucose monitoring, sensor-augment ed pump therapy improves convenience.

Despite these developments, the best practices for man aging glucose control are still insufficient. The incidence of severe hypoglycaemia in patients receiving sensor-augment ed pump therapy is comparable to that in patients receiving conventional treatment, which cannot be avoided.

The treatments available for diabetes have significantly evolved since the invention of insulin in the 1920s. Since then, the technology has evolved to include many technol ogies that span the medical landscape of insulin injections, Bluetooth-enabled EpiPen and the latest on the scene, the bionic pancreas.

A few wearable gadgets have been created over time to simplify the process: One among them is a “pump” that con tinuously distributes insulin via a tiny tube just beneath the skin. The continuous glucose monitor, a device that checks

blood sugar levels via a sensor inserted under the skin, provides an alternative to finger sticks. However, it has drawbacks, as it does not mitigate severe hypoglycae mia.

Much more progress has been made during the last few years thanks to the acceptance of several hybrid closed-loop systems. The recent discovery of the “bion ic pancreas” could potentially mitigate the challenges that people with diabetes face daily, giving them a shot at a semblance of normal life.

THE BIONIC PANCREAS

The Bionic Pancreas currently under development can be thought of as an insulin pump and continuous glucose monitor (CGM) rolled into one. It works as an automated insulin delivery system based on a closedloop system for continuous feedback and monitoring. One of the most promising areas of the bionic pancre as is real-time feedback between insulin transport and glucose levels, thereby mimicking the function of the missing β-cells. Studies discovered that type 1 diabetic adults and children who used the bionic pancreas for three months showed a decrease in their average blood sugar levels without a rise in potentially harmful blood sugar lows.

The iLet Bionic Pancreas device is being examined by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for commer cial distribution on the global market. If authorized, it would be the most automated type 1 diabetes manage ment system on the market, monitoring blood sugar levels and dispensing insulin with little intervention from patients.

Users of the bionic pancreas do not need to keep track of their carbohydrate intake or administer insu lin dosages to lower blood sugar levels, making it the first of its kind. Additionally, healthcare professionals are not required to modify the gadget settings routine ly. One of the main takeaways of this technology could be that patients will have minimal involvement with their disease and how it affects their lives and how they function.

However, technology does not come without lim itations. The unstable nature of glucagon formulations could require daily filling of the glucagon reservoir. Changing the glucagon reservoir daily should no longer be necessary, thanks to stable formulations and ana logues of glucagon that have been created. However, it is unknown how much the cost of treatment will rise due to using glucagon.

A BOOMING MARKET

The outbreak of COVID-19 is estimated to contrib ute to the market growth in the times to come. How ever, disturbed logistics and changed equation in inter national trading have significantly affected the business growth. According to the International Diabetes Feder ation (IDF), over 537 million adults are living with dia betes across the globe in 2021.This figure is predicted to

rise to 643 million by 2030 and 783 million by 2045. In 2021, around 6.7 million deaths were due to diabetes. Thus, owing to the large base of the diabetic popula tion and increasing diabetes prevalence, the demand for CTT systems is likely to boost during the forecast period.

The artificial pancreas market on a global scale is ever-growing. The market was valued at USD 207.27 million in 2021 and has been expected to expand at an annual rate of about 18.9% from 2022-2030.

Moreover, the market is poised to open up leeway for the bionic organ market and providing much need ed attention on the life-saving bionic organ industry.

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor is inserted under the skin to continuously measure glucose concentrations in the patient’s cells

CGM receiver displays the updated readings as graphs and trends minute-byminute. and translates the readings from USB to Bluetooth

Financial institutions must work in tandem with the medical industry to educate healthcare professionals and incorporate the impact of new technologies in hybrid healthcare for faster, widespread adoption.

One of the main limitations of studies on this technology is that they have mostly included majority populations without significant health disparities. It is to be seen whether their challenges are generalizable to minority populations. Specific obstacles may go beyond barriers to technology use related to market prices, accessibility and prescription bias.

To determine the long-term advantages and hazards of automated glycaemic management using a bihormonal bionic pancreas, a fully integrated device should be tested in larger studies that last for extended periods.

Assessment

The CAD communicates with a body-worn insulin pump that automatically administers the correct insulin dose via a cannula inserted under the skin

Readings are sent to a control algorithm device (CAD) - where an algorithm analyses them and calculates the correct insulin dose, if required

HAVE ARCTIC BATTLE LINES BEEN DRAWN?

As relations between Russia and the West head South, the resource-rich

Arctic is emerging as the next battle space.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

The Arctic has been growing in importance over the last decade. The change has been largely propelled by the reduction of its permanent ice cover due to climate change. These changes have not gone unnoticed by countries keeping an eagle eye on the reputed vast riches of the ‘dead, frozen north.’ It is not only those countries that comprise the Arctic Council (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ice land, Norway, Russia, Sweden and United States-In dia has observer status) and already have a toehold in the continent, but also powers far off who fear being left behind in the ‘Race for the Arctic.’

The economic rivalry has historically given rise to mili tary contestations.

Recently, the first shot was fired by Russia in June when it accused the U.S. and NATO of carrying out a “vast mili tary build-up in the Arctic” and warned that it “will not stay silent.” Russia was talking about NATO’s “Exercise Cold Response’ in which over 28 member countries participated with about 40,000 soldiers.

Senior Russian military officials claim that U.S. and NATO military exercises in the Arctic have doubled since 2015 with at least nine exercises of various sizes conduct ed in 2022 itself. Russia fears, with some justification, that once Nordic Sweden and Finland join the military alliance, NATO’s grip on the Arctic will only grow stronger. This has prompted Russia to come up with an ambitious military development plan for 2030, which includes seven air bases

As per U.S. Geological Survey figures, the Arctic Ocean stores over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. And this is a conservative estimate! Once the Arctic ice cover melts significantly, Cambridge Bay will become an important link in the Northwest Passage between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

with one specifically designed for operating seaplanes.

Canada, with one of the largest stakes in the Arctic, signalled to Russia in August when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg jointly visited a NATO military outpost at Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, located above the Arctic Circle. The radar instal lation was part of the Cold War Distant Early Warning line, which formed the forwardmost terrestrial trip wire of the North American Air Defence Command (NORAD) against surprise Soviet missile attacks.

Once the Arctic ice cover melts significantly, Cambridge Bay will become an important link in the Northwest Pas sage between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Mr Trudeau announced an investment of over US $3.8 billion over the next six years to modernise NORAD, lying in disuse since the 1990s. Both Stoltenberg and Trudeau blamed Russia for making the Arctic a zone for military competition by ‘reopening hundreds of Soviet-era military bases, using the

Arctic wastes for weapon testing and more worryingly, forging a military partnership with aspiring China.’

EMERGING AS A STRATEGIC HOTSPOT

The causes for increasing geopolitical interest in the Arctic are not far to seek. Professor Peter Harrison of the University of Washington, in a 2009 article ‘Cooling down Arctic Rhetoric’ warned of the Arctic going from being totally ignored to becoming a flashpoint. The rea son, he put, was simple, “The Arctic is heating up.” As per scientists, the summer ice cover was reduced to 3.4 million square miles in the 2000s, which was 50 per cent below the average in the 1980s and 1990s.

As per U.S. Geological Survey figures, the Arctic Ocean stores over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 tril lion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. And this is a conservative estimate! Even better, shorter and therefore more economical sea routes will open between the North and the South, promising immense economic benefits to its litto rals-Canada, the U.S., Russia, Norway and Denmark / Greenland. Journey time will be cut down by almost 40 per cent to some destinations in Asia, as compared to the Suez Canal route.

THE ARCTIC PREMIER LEAGUE

While there are many players in the Arctic Great Game, the most ambitious, aggressive and potent are the U.S., Russia and China. Their geopolitical rivalry manifests in the cold vastness of the North with the same intensity that we see in the Pacific or in the Euro pean heartland.

The U.S. constituted its National Strategy for the Arctic in 2013, which lays down the priorities for the next decade. Eyeing the fabled energy riches of the North to fulfil its energy needs for the 21st century and beyond, the U.S. is determined to keep its freedom of naviga tion “through, under and over the airspace and waters of the Arctic to support lawful commerce” and “evolve Arctic infra structure and capabilities, including ice-capable platforms.”

For the first time after the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military is turning the focus back on its de fensive perimeter based upon the Arctic Circle. It includes other NATO members like the Thule Air Base in Denmark/ Green land, as well as basing its nuclear-armed B1 bomber fleet in Norway’s Orland air base.

Hobbled by a lack of resources to match the U.S. in infrastructure development in

the Arctic, Russia intends to use its proximity and cen turies of experience of living and surviving in the frozen tundra to its advantage. First and foremost, Russia is determined to use its military power to secure its claims on the Arctic, which would encompass the military, bor der and coast guards. Russia has repeatedly issued warn ings that “an active development on the Arctic Shelf will inevitably lead to a conflict of interests between coun tries which may go beyond diplomatic means.”

In its Arctic Policy, Russia has proclaimed that its Arctic territories will be the driving force of its economy in the immediate future once climate change facilitates its exploitation. The Russians are even willing to secure this objective with military force if need be.

Russia’s Yakutia Republic is of special interest as it ex tends deep into the Arctic Circle. Diminishing perma nent ice cover has opened the way to immense geolog ical bounties (cobalt, tin, and rare earth) in the seabed along its shores. Nodules hold special promise as their contents are being used in almost all modern devices. Two decades back, waters around Yakutia were not nav igable because of permanent ice cover; today, they are free of ice for four months, a window that is expanding with every passing year.

Within the Arctic Council itself, there are many con flicting claims and counterclaims. The U.S. disputes the Canadian extension over the seabed and the mythical Northwest Passage (in whose search many intrepid explorers died in the 19th Century) and also their re spective maritime boundaries in the Beaufort Sea. Den mark and Canada have disputes over territories in the Lincoln Sea.

China, an outlier with no direct link to the Arctic, is also ready to pit its wealth and diplomatic firepower in the Arctic race. In 2010, China claimed equal rights to the members of the Arctic Council, stating that “the Arctic belongs to all people around the globe as no na tion has sovereignty over it.” To wiggle into a position of advantage in the Great Arctic Game, China has been investing in local companies to generate goodwill and support, building powerful icebreaker ships and set ting up research stations.

A GLOBAL COMMONS?

For long, the Arctic, along with the Antarctic, was universally accepted as a ‘global commons,’ to be protect ed from exploitation by the Arctic Council. The fear now is that the Council members themselves, ei ther individually or in collusion, are eyeing its resources exclu sively for their benefit.

However, there is a major dif ference between the Arctic and the Antarctic. As per Professor Peter Harrison, “the Antarctic is a con tinent covered in ice, surrounded

by the ocean, and is uninhabited. The Arctic, however, is an ocean covered in ice, surrounded by land masses which are part of sovereign states.” Justifying Canadian sovereignty over ‘Canadian Arctic’, Professor Harrison says, “For Canada (Arctic) is not terra incognita, and that our Arctic regions have been inhabited success fully for millennia by the Inuit and Arctic Athabaskan peoples.

It has been equally necessary to note that the Ca nadian Arctic is part of Canada and is subject to all the laws and regulations of the land – in other words, it is governed.”

In March, India released its Arctic Policy. The pol icy, with a theme of ‘building a partnership for sus tainable development’, looks at the Arctic from the perspective of science and research, climate change, economic resources and connectivity for global trade. So far, India’s intrusions into the Arctic are confined to scientific research as the ice melt in the Arctic gives a keyhole view to Indian scientists dealing with the melt of Himalayan glaciers. So far, India has sent 13 expedi tions to the Arctic.

Assessment

It will not be easy to get the Arctic declared as a “global commons” because, as mentioned earlier, the Arctic Council members already have a significant footprint within the Arctic Circle which they are in no hurry to relinquish.

However, at the same time, this is not the early 15th Century where one plants one’s flag and the territory becomes your sovereign property. There are many conflicting interests in the Arctic which will not allow a single entity or a group of nations to gain control over its riches. But let no nation forget that accelerating the ice melt in the Arctic through increased commercial activities and transhipment of marine traffic will be detrimental to the future of the entire planet.

The Northwest passage or the Arctic Route, as they open for traffic year around, should be managed under existing regimes of the International Maritime Organisation for the benefit of all trading countries.

An ice-free Arctic has two important implications. First, it will expose vast regions of seabed that are rich in natural resources, making extraction of these resources possible. It is estimated that about 30 per cent of un discovered gas and 13 per cent of undiscovered oil can be found in the marine areas north of the Arctic Circle. According to the USGS estimates, Arctic region has the hydrocarbon reserves of 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.32 Second, an ice-free Arctic will open previously impassable shipping lanes, thereby, improving prospects for Arctic navigation. The most promising route, historically known as the “Northwest Passage” may become navigable, which would reduce the length of the voyage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by an astonishing 9000 kilometers.’’

NO VICTORS, NO LOSERS

The battle indicators of a new Cold War are there for everyone to see, but can the world afford it?

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

T he battle lines have once again been drawn, not only in Europe but also across the globe. This was made very clear during the NATO summit 2022 held in Madrid. NATO’s Strategic Con cept 2022, while identifying Russia as the most sig nificant and direct threat to European security, also named China as a potential adversary for the first time in NATO history.

That these security apprehensions were not confined to the European theatre alone was evident in the presence of some non-NATO attendees like Japan, South Korea, Austra lia and New Zealand-all close allies of the West. This, too, was a first for any NATO summit and invoked rumours of an “Indo-Pacific NATO” against China. India was the only Quadrilateral Dialogue or Quad member to have been left out.

In any case, the AUKUS (Australia, U.S. and UK) military alliance to project nuclear-powered submarines into the Pa cific has already made the AUKUS an adjunct of NATO.

2.0

The era of low-budget defence outlays, small militaries, and general neglect of the security sector in preference to economic growth seems to be ending. NATO is in the pro cess of the most extensive overhaul of its collective defence architecture.

Sweden, a long-time neutral nation, and Finland, which has more than once proved its skill fighting under Arctic conditions, will soon be full-fledged members of NATO. They bring cutting-edge weaponry, high-quality manpower

NATO’s Strategic Concept 2022, while identifying Russia as the most significant and direct threat to European security, also named China as a potential adversary for the first time in NATO history.

and financial might to strengthen NATO.

NATO has decided to enhance its high readiness forces from the eight multinational battle groups and its pre-po sitioned stockpiles of equipment and weapons to meet any Russian threat in Europe. So far there has been no mention of pre-positioned stockpiles in the Indo-Pacific against the Chinese, but these could, in a contingency, dip into existing U.S. logistic stocks. The U.S. would be pleased to note that despite many years of urging, it took Ukraine to compel rich European nations like Germany to make their defence bud get at least 2 percent of the GDP by 2024, as mandated by the NATO charter.

Ukraine has been a wake-up call for NATO, and it has served to streamline NATO procedures for sustaining an under-attack ally with weapons, ammunition, equipment and training. For a multinational alliance like NATO, whose members are differently sized in economy size, military force and capacity, the Ukraine crisis has generated a mea sure of confidence that when push comes to shove, NATO members will deliver to its members under Article 5 of NATO charter. Sadly, such confidence also makes NATO more aggressive.

CONTOURS OF AN EMERGING WORLD ORDER

Contrary to popular belief, Ukraine alone is not the caus ative factor for the new Cold War; it may be the trigger, but the confrontation has been building up for the last few years.

Since the early 1980s, the U.S. has been wooing Chi na as a responsible stakeholder to maintain global sta bility. However, there has been a generational change with both major powers indulging in, as an American official once said, “a bipartisan policy of unrelenting confrontation.”

The Chinese have not been sitting idle either; they are indulging in their own brand of muscle flexing. They have a strategic foothold in the Solomon Islands with military undertones, apart from their naval bases in the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean through Ham bantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan. China’s launch of the Global Security Initiative (GSI) is being seen as an effort to counter the various security group ings created by the U.S in the Indo-Pacific. GSI is meant to counter the ‘hegemonism, power politics, and bloc confrontation,’ of the U.S. Through GSI, China has stat ed the goal of ‘indivisible security.’

China would like Russia to be on board the GSI (al beit as a junior partner), which is a distinct possibility under the existing geopolitical circumstances. China would like the GSI to cover perhaps the Philippines and, if possible, Vietnam. Any such congregation would have the blessings and eager participation of Pyong yang. Pakistan would be caught in the horns of a dilem ma as any overt participation in a Beijing-led military alliance would expose its collapsing economy to the wrath of Western donors. Iran, which will soon become a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Or ganisation, would also be a potential candidate for GSI. In sum, the group could then boast four nuclear-armed states and one on the threshold of being nuclearized.

On the European heartland, Russia stands almost alone with only Belarus as a significant ally while most of its erstwhile Warsaw Pact allies have deserted in droves to the opposing camp. Alone, it may be, but Rus sia is neither cowed down nor apologetic under Putin. It has displayed its intentions to raise the stakes and use its massive nuclear arsenal to make the strategic equa tion tilt in its favour.On the margins of the evolving fa ceoff are emerging powers like India, Brazil, and South Africa, who cannot be ignored as they, too, can tilt the balance in a closely contested competition. Sensing a growing threat due to its historical enmity with China, Japan is quickly shedding its post-World War II pacifist cloak and refurbishing its military.

A new ‘Iron Curtain’ is now being drawn, start ing from the Sea of Azov, through the Black Sea and stretching to the Taiwan Straits, to the Solomon Islands in South Pacific and Humbanthota and Gwadar in the Indian Ocean. And this time, things will not be ‘black or white, ‘ like in the ‘old’ Cold War. The stark ideologi cal divide between a ‘benign liberal west’ and an ‘ axis of evil’ represented by the Communist Kremlin has been blurred in a globalized world. Many big and small coun tries are no longer willing to buy into the Western narra tive of a ‘global fight for freedom’ to define the new Cold War. Large swathes of Asia, Africa and even Europe de pend upon China for their prosperity and China, unlike the USSR, is not an economically hollow superpower.

THE CHINA TRAP

Pigeonholing Beijing as an adversary is not easy. For one, Beijing is an equal and a more complex participant, with the West heavily dependent upon its supply chains. Then, there is a distinct lack of unanimity and unease within the bloc, as many members, including France, Germany and Italy, enjoy a lucrative commercial part nership with the Dragon. Even globally, not everyone considers China as something inimical to their national interests or regional stability.

More importantly, the current obsession of Amer ican policymakers with China could be a ‘China Trap’. Trying to beat China at every level-technology, econo my, diplomacy, sports etc- should not subsume other important facets of U.S. foreign policy. As mentioned earlier, the rest of the global community has no blind obeisance to the ‘American way of seeing China’. If na tions like India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and even South Korea or Japan are forced to declare their loyalty to one side or another, it could further reduce American influence around the world, especially at a time when it is at its historic low.

As Jessica Chen Weiss writes for the Foreign Affairs Magazine in a recent article, “In attempting to craft a national strategy suited to a more assertive and more powerful China, Washington has struggled to define success, or even a steady state, short of total victory or total defeat, that both governments could eventually accept and at a cost that citizens, businesses, and other stakeholders would be willing to bear.”

Assessment

The first Cold War emerged gradually due to the bipolar nature of the global power structure post World War II. This time around, in a multipolar, interconnected, market-oriented world, we are again helplessly watching as nationalistic jingoism, economic competitiveness, and the hunger for global primacy are driving us back into antagonism on a global scale. While Washington, Beijing and Moscow have stridently denied inciting the new Cold War, the fact is that their leaders have resigned to its inevitability. The world is walking into the ‘Thucydides Trap’ with its eyes wide open.

The Chinese point of view is not helping matters when it sees its rise to global pre-eminence as its rightful place denied unfairly for over two centuries. Having given up its ‘strategic humility’ professed so vehemently during Deng Xiaoping’s reign, China now entertains a deeply entrenched sense of injustice against ‘foreign forces trying to thwart its rise.’

Where will this approach lead the world? A more fractious and combative globe saddled with constant crises, instability, geopolitical blackmails and an increasing number of flashpoints where proxy fighting will escalate? Mankind can ill afford the risk of a nuclear Armageddon, a calamity that all had hoped had been put to rest for good when the Berlin Wall went down.

CITIZEN-CENTRIC CYBERSECURITY

With digital technology permeating every aspect of our lives, the associated risks have grown exponentially and need urgent corrective action.

The marginalisation of civil society in the broader political discourse and cybersecurity ecosystems at the global and national levels renders it vulnerable to policy and practice.

Your network has been breached and all data was encrypted. The message on the screens of NIMHANS desktops provided a link to con nect with the sales department of the ransomware and mentioned that the user has to purchase its de cryption software, alluding to blackmail.’

NIMHANS, a world-renowned centre for mental health and neurosciences institute, faced cyber security threats fol lowing a ransomware attack in March 2022.

While there are concerns about patient data being com promised and the functioning of the causality department, the director contended that only some computers were in fected.

In a new avatar of digital crime, several consumers of Bescom, the public utility that supplies electricity in Banga lore, have received specious communication conveying that the power connections to their respective homes will be severed due to the default in payment of electric bills. Those who reacted to this communique had their bank accounts compromised.

As civil society is encouraged to embrace digital technol ogy, they are at greater risk of disruptions by various cyber security incidents. The marginalization of civil society in the broader political discourse and cybersecurity ecosystems at the global and national levels renders it vulnerable to policy

and practice.

While governments around the globe spend billions of dollars on protecting state-owned critical infrastructure (CI) and private corporations have generous cyber security budgets, the participation of civil society in cybersecurity rarely goes beyond tokenism. For one, civil society seldom represents a significant commercial threat which merits the kind of expenditure commercial CI warrants.

As civil society is often outside the ambit of CI, it is not subjected to legal provisions of cybersecurity laws. Further more, tech companies do not find it financially stimulating to invest in technology to secure smartphones sold off the shelf for mass consumption.

A BOUQUET OF THREATS

The penetration of smartphones into our daily lives needs no further elucidation. A recent study published in February observes that India alone has over 750 million smartphone users, expected to rise to over a billion by 2026, driven by sales in its vast rural hinterland. Few of these users understand the threats that online hackers pose.

Despite Google’s claims to the contrary, experts have continued to detect malware in the so-called sanitized Goo gle Play app. Apart from apps with overtly malicious intents,

Tobby Simon is the Founder and Presi dent of the Synergia Foundation and a member of the Trilateral Commission

there are scammer apps on Google Play that pose as bonafide services like applications for social welfare payments but hijack the user data or even freeze the device in return for payment of a fee.

Banking Trojans are even more fatal, allowing hack ers to access the user’s current session and personal mobile banking account without knowing the login password. Another app can take screenshots of the us er’s screen, thus recording critical data related to bank ing transactions. Finally, spyware like the infamous Pegasus could easily hack into almost any smartphone.

The current cybercrime scenario is disquieting as predators send umpteen messages to consumers to play on ignorance and more on their greed. With the latest technology, predators can alter existing videos and photographs to create fake content; with Artificial Intelligence (AI), ‘deepfakes’ can be fabricated, which are almost impossible to differentiate from genuine ones. Such technology has great potential for digital manipulation and fraud.

When an email is sent, an online search is done, or a photo is shared on social media, we are sure to have left behind a trail of personal data that represents our ‘digital footprint.” These digital footprints are perma nent and extremely hard to erase. The data includes the activities we perform in apps and online and consists of the geographical coordinates - as we take our devices with us just about everywhere, we go.

An example would be that the email provider has the bandwidth to scan the contents of our personal email, and the provider can trace our digital records and the websites we surf. Once we have browsed a website, we are edged to accept “cookies” - it’s either first party or third party. A “first party cookie” permits a site to monitor our behaviour and propose specific content. A “third party cookie” allows other companies, including advertisers or analytical platforms, to understand our browsing habits.

When we consent to a third-party cookie, we con cede that we would share information about ourselves with external organizations - some entirely unfamiliar.

THE WAY AHEAD

A “national security-centric” narrative currently triumphs over cybersecurity policies and practices. Ex tracted from a realist theory of geopolitics, where na tion states compete, the principal cybersecurity threats are characterized as those that cause damage to critical infrastructure within their territorial jurisdictions.

The preferred alternative would be to adopt a “cit izen-centric” approach to digital security that strives for indivisible network security, assured data privacy and the broadest possible scope of homo-centric expe rience. It would seek to ensure that such essentials are vigorously supervised and guarded by multiple layers of independent oversight and review.

A citizen centric approach to cyber-security codifies people when evaluating cybersecurity hazards. It recog nizes that people’s converging identities shape their cybersecurity needs and experience of cyber incidents. Consequently, cybersecurity measures should be tailored to address structural disparity which lead to uncertainty.”

TOBBY SIMON Founder and President of the Synergia Foundation.

CONQUERING WITHOUT FIGHTING

Will China subdue the United States without risking a war to dominate the Indo-Pacific?

Dr Patrick Mendis is a former Amer ican diplomat, a military professor in the NATO and Indo-Pacific Com mands of the US Department of De fence , and a non-resident senior fel low of the Synergia Foundation.

P resident Gotabaya Rajapaksa officially de clared on June 22, 2022, that the Sri Lankan economy had “completely collapsed.” A month earlier, the increasingly debt-laden island nation of 22 million people defaulted on its US$50 billion for eign debt to China and other international creditors, bringing the entire country to a grinding econom ic standstill. Massive protests in the capital city of Colombo erupted on July 9, with the ransacking of the presidential secretariat and the newly appoint ed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe’s official residence, followed by his private home being set ablaze. President Rajapaksa fled the city and later the country, leaving behind a country with a shred ded economy.

The so-called “perfect tropical paradise” that is shaped like a teardrop falling from the southern tip of India has in deed now become an island of tears. This reality is large ly a result of the autocratic and corrupt Rajapaksa family, who has ruled the strategically located island in the Indian Ocean—except for a brief period from January 2015 to No vember 2019—for almost two decades.

For the past several months, however, shortages of fuel, gas, electricity, food items and medicines, coupled with stag gering double-digit inflation, have prompted the people to protest peacefully against the government. The protesters demanded the resignation of Gotabaya, his eldest brother

In The Art of War, Chinese General Sun Tzu once advised that a leader must remember that “to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”

Prime Minister Mahinda, his youngest brother, former Fi nance Minister Basil, and other ministers and family mem bers in the parliament.

THE MARITIME GAME

After winning the nearly 30-year “civil war” in May 2009, the triumphant Gotabaya was made secretary of the Minis try of Defence and Urban Development under his brother, President Mahinda. At the third Galle Dialogue on Mari time Security in December 2012, Gotabay assured India that Hambantota Port was a “purely economic” investment and was not part of China’s “string of pearls” military strategy to encircle India or to keep the United States away from the Indian Ocean. At over US $1 billion, the port was meant for the transhipment of Chinese goods and resources from the Middle East and Africa.

Indeed, Sri Lanka is the “crown jewel” of China’s mul tibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across the Indo-Pacific region, which connects the Hambantota Port, the Colombo Port City (CPC), the Colombo Lotus Tow er, and many other overwhelming infrastructure projects. As the BRI gains momentum in the Indo-Pacific region, it invokes the “universal virtue” of harmony and revives the coveted noble concepts of equality and freedom, rooted in the sutras of Buddhism as opposed to Confucian hierarchy.

These ports could easily be converted into dual-purpose military and civilian use compounds, making Sri Lanka a potential “unsinkable aircraft carrier” for China. With President Xi’s “New Era” of national rejuvenation, Sri Lanka has now discreetly become a strategic “colony” of battleships with massive projects to advance Chi nese interests against India and the United States in the Indian Ocean. In The Art of War, Chinese General Sun Tzu once advised that a leader must remember that “to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.” Xi seems to be lieve he can strategically achieve his national goals by peacefully defeating his enemies—India and the United States—before the war even breaks out. Now, a key op portunity has presented itself to Beijing, with the col lapse of the Sri Lankan economy, to get the upper hand over the United States and India in the Indian Ocean and beyond.

CHINA’S EYES ON THE CROWN JEWEL

For the last phase of the civil war that ended in 2009, China provided the much needed “economic support, military equipment, and political cover at the United Nations to block potential sanctions.” During these years of bloodshed and human rights violations on both the government and LTTE sides, the Rajapaksa govern ment was afraid of the powerful lobbying efforts by the Tamil diaspora in the West, encouraging the Western governments to support UN sanctions against Sri Lan ka. The Colombo administration had been equally dis tressed by another “direct Indian intervention”—with the mounting pressure coming from India’s southern state of Tamil Nadu—in neighbouring Sri Lanka’s inter nal affairs.

Against this backdrop, paying tribute to Chinese patronage at the third Galle Dialogue, Defence Secre tary Rajapaksa reaffirmed that “China was an obvious nation to approach” among other traditional donor na tions such as Japan, India, South Korea, and the Unit ed States. Victorious as war heroes during the decade 2005-2015, his elder brother Mahinda—then-president of Sri Lanka—and his three brothers controlled “many government ministries and around 80 per cent of total government spending.” These strongmen also “negoti ated directly” with China while considering the island nation as an extended family business enterprise.

12 years later, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa—un til recently in office since November 2019 with family members still sitting in parliament—has brought the paradise island into an unprecedented socio-economic turmoil with mismanaged economic policies and sys temic corruption by successive governments. Once the leading nation in the UN Human Development Index for life expectancy, literacy rate, and GNP per capita in South Asia, Sri Lanka is now entangled in enormous “debt trap” projects with China and loans from Japan and international financial institutions. Such ventures involve Chinese “white elephant” schemes, including the US$104 million Colombo Lotus Tower for Beijing’s “espionage” operation in South Asia and the US$209

million Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport in Hambantota—the “emptiest” airport in the world. Moreover, the massive Sooriyawewa Cricket Stadium and the International Conference Hall in Hambantota, as well as the nearly US$200 million unused roads and bridges, made Rajapaksa’s ancestral home district with golden statues “a throne to the vanity of a political dy nasty.” Like other nationalist and narcissistic dictators do, the Rajapaksa clan bloated the bureaucracy and en larged the military with their associates and supporters while erecting tributes to themselves at the expense and suffering of ordinary citizens.

THE PEACEFUL ‘ARAGALAYA’

The economic collapse has devolved into mass protest (“aragalaya”, or struggle) in Colombo and elsewhere in the country. Violence erupted when the Rajapaksa allies attacked the peaceful protesters who demanded the embattled President Gotabaya’s resig nation, chanting “Gotta Go home” for several months. His elder brother Mahinda—the prime minister who had previously been president—was forced out of power in May, and his other brother Basil—the finance minister—resigned from the cabinet in June 2022. Go tabaya himself has now surrendered to the power of the people, leaving the island nation after relentless calls for him to do so.

The complete removal of the pro-Chinese Rajapak sa family presents an existential threat to China’s inter ests in Sri Lanka—especially when President Gotabaya appointed five-time Prime Minister Ranil Wickremas inghe back to the post for just two months, replacing the president’s brother Mahinda. The unpopular but veteran prime minister and his United National Party have only one seat out of 225 in the parliament. At the same time, however, pro-American Wickremesinghe had been viewed by protesters as a strange bedfellow in the name of political expediency and a crisis manager for Gotabaya, who wanted to remain in the powerful presidency to protect his family’s financial interests and political ambitions.

The new prime minister promised the nation that he would resolve the current shortages of oil, gas, elec tricity, medicine, and other imports necessary for daily survival. Wickremesinghe also vowed to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and other lenders. It was a matter of concern for China because the transparency required by these institutions would expose the nature of Chinese loans and bribery schemes, its exorbitant interest rates and kickbacks, and the secret negotiations conducted by the members of the Rajapaksa family and their asso ciates. After learning that the “20 per cent” kickback “monies were paid as commissions” to the Rajapaksa family and associates, the Aragalaya protesters have been pushed to the brink, taking to the streets.

THE CHINESE PARADOX AND AUTOCRATIC REGIMES

Prior to these most recent developments, Chinese

State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Sri Lanka in January 2022 to restructure debt pay ments and alleviate financial troubles. During the visit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that Western media was “unfairly hyping [the] debt issue,” adding that “calling the cooperation projects between China and Sri Lanka ‘white elephants’ is completely untrue” as “bilateral cooperation is welcomed by local people.”

It is true that debt owed to China now accounts for only 10 per cent of Sri Lanka’s total US$35 billion of foreign debt, similar to Japan, making China only the fourth-largest lender, preceded by the international financial markets, the Asian Development Bank, and Japan. Unlike the other lenders, however, China’s moti vations are driven by its communist statecraft and geo political calculus in the Indian Ocean region. When Sri Lanka failed to repay Chinese debt stemming from the Hambantota Port, for example, the Colombo govern ment agreed to a debt-for-equity swap and gave Beijing a 99-year lease of the port with the 15,000 acres neigh bouring the wildlife sanctuary.

Moreover, the nearby Mattala Rajapaksa Interna tional Airport was built with the possible intention of being a dual civil-and-military installation for future use. With China’s first military base at Djibouti in the Horn of Africa and the latest Ream naval base in Cam bodia, Beijing may aim to use the world’s emptiest in ternational airport in Sri Lanka to develop its emerg ing Indian Ocean military theatre against the United States, its allies, and India. All these projects were ini tially promoted within the BRI as development assis tance. In fact, the BRI has been the ambitious foreign policy strategy of China to bring developing countries under its realm of influence, as shown in the “caution ary tale” of Sri Lanka.

AMERICAN INTERESTS

When China refused to extend additional credits for oil import, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa called on President Vladimir Putin for oil shipments in July. Un derstanding the desperate measures taken by Gotaba ya, US Ambassador to Sri Lanka Julie Chung reminded that Sri Lanka must consider “our sanctions globally on Russian banks, logistics, transportation, and financ ing.” However, she assured that “the US does not have sanctions against third world countries on the import of oil.”

To remove misinformation that the United States and the international community are holding back support during a time of need, Ambassador Chung an nounced that President Biden had granted US$20 mil lion in “humanitarian assistance including for the most vulnerable segments of society,” the poorest of the poor. In addition, the US Development Finance Cor poration (DFC) committed US$150 million for private sector-led initiatives and US$80 million for renewable energy, as well as recent commitments to technical sup port for the Sri Lankan Treasury.

Misinformation on US involvement in Sri Lanka was

widespread during the brief but tumultuous adminis tration of President Maithripala Sirisena (2015-2019); since then, anti-American sentiments have prevailed.

When visiting US Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia, Alice Wells, for example, re ferred to Sri Lanka as an important piece of “real estate” for its strategic location in major maritime shipping routes. It was perceived as real estate own er-turned-President Donald Trump’s vision of transac tional, American-centric diplomacy. The pro-western Sirisena administration, however, favoured striking deals with the Trump administration, especially when Sri Lanka renewed its Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) with the United States for another ten years. The ACSA allowed the transfer and exchange of logistical supplies and refuelling services for US mil itary operations in the Indian Ocean rim region. The pro-China Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration had re fused to cooperate with American initiatives, demon strating that Sri Lanka had chosen to partner with Bei jing instead of Washington. In fact, the United States failed to renew its Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Sri Lanka, even after pledging $480 million in de velopment aid via the Millennium Challenge Compact (MCC). Both countries spent months debating the MCC compact that promised infrastructure develop ment projects, similar to China’s BRI projects in Sri Lanka. In the end, Gotabaya declined to sign the MCC offer and refused to renew the SOFA, speculating that the United States intended to establish a military base to counter Chinese influence in South Asia and the In dian Ocean rim countries.

THE SINO-AMERICAN ENDGAME

The immediate goal is to stabilize the collapsed economy and alleviate human suffering while helping the island recover from foreign debts. As China has remained relatively muted during the Aragalaya, US Ambassador Chung has seized the opportunity to en courage peaceful protest, restrain violent military re sponse, and protect freedom of speech and Internet communications.Indeed, it is morally imperative for all lenders—including the Asian Development Bank and the IMF—to jointly help the paradise-island nation. For China, as Sun Tzu counselled, President Xi would most likely build for his Indian and US opponents a “golden bridge” to retreat across; otherwise, the opponent “will engage in battle and fight like a caged and cornered ti ger,” when economic incentives run out for India and the United States. Both democracies need to realize the importance of economic development within the island over their own military interests in a geopolitical end game with China.

Thus, the tragic saga of the teardrop island might remain as China tries to use its economic power to ad vance Beijing’s ultimate goal: to be the comprehensive global power in the Indian Ocean and beyond. Given the latest events in Colombo, however, it appears that the paradise island may not be completely turned into a Chinese colony—as long as the Sri Lankan people con tinue to advocate for their own destiny as a free nation.

GIORGIA MELONI’S MOMENT

The Meloni government represents more continuity with Berlusconi’s 2001-06 and 2008-11 spells than change.

William John Emmott is an English journalist, author, and consultant, best known as the editor-in-chief of The Economist newspaper from 1993 to 2006.

W hen a “shock” or “extremist” election re sult comes with record-low voter turnout and a big yawn from financial markets, it is time to find new descriptors. The decisive victory in Italy’s general election by the coalition led by Gi orgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, putting her in line to be the country’s first female prime minister and the first to claim an unambiguous line back to Benito Mussolini, is certainly striking. But there is little reason to believe it will change Italy’s course in ways that matter either to markets or to the coun try’s international partners.

This election was that rare modern case in which opin ion polls got the outcome largely right. It has been clear for at least two years that if the three main right-wing parties held together, they would win an absolute majority. The only thing that has changed materially is the balance within the coalition: during the technocratic, national unity gov ernment led by Mario Draghi from February 2021 until July this year, votes shifted away from the right-wing party that joined Draghi’s government, the League, and to the party that stayed out, the Brothers of Italy.

This shift continued right up to the election, with the Brothers ending up with three times the vote share of either the League, led by Matteo Salvini, or Meloni’s other coali tion partner, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. This will great

For the time being, these neo-fascist associations are unimportant, because there is no sign of any up swell of support for violent methods or for subverting democracy.

ly strengthen her position when forming her government, making it more likely than not that her government will last several years, or even the full five-year parliamentary term.

THE RISE OF THE RIGHT

The last time a coalition won a clear majority in an Ital ian general election was in 2008, when Berlusconi led the right to victory. Since 2011, there have been seven govern ments under six different prime ministers, two of which (Mario Monti and Draghi) were technocrats, while the oth er five relied upon creative and complex coalition negoti ations. Compared with those, the Meloni victory promises simplicity and, at least in the medium term, stability.

In fact, Meloni’s victory largely reflects the instability of the last decade. Moreover, with Italy having been led mainly by leaders from the centre and left since 2011, it was argu ably time for Italy to swing back to the right. And one of Meloni’s big attractions was that she is young (just 45 years old) and untainted by any recent governmental decisions, popular or otherwise.

The voter apathy that pushed turnout down to just 64 per cent had a lot to do with disillusion with the old political guard.

Meloni’s most eye-catching characteristic has been fair

ly unimportant in her success. She leads a party that is unashamed of its origins among post-war supporters of Mussolini, the Fascist dictator. The Brothers even keep as their party symbol, a flame symbolizing loyalty to the late Duce. Some members wear black shirts and even use the Roman salute most commonly associated with German Nazis, though it was Mussolini who popular ized it.

For the time being, these neo-fascist associations are unimportant, because there is no sign of any up swell of support for violent methods or for subverting democracy. Meloni’s signature issues are a Trump-like “Italy First” attitude toward illegal immigration and hostility to progressive social policies regarding LGBTQ communities or abortion. These are essentially consis tent with the programs of previous Berlusconi-led rightwing governments in 2001-06 and 2008-11, and of the League in a left-right coalition in 2018-19. Her opposi tion to foreign ownership of flagship national compa nies such as the former Alitalia is also conventional.So, despite many Italians’ disappointment that progressive social policies may now be reversed, there is little that is genuinely new in the programme promised by Meloni. She will enter office not on a groundswell of enthusiasm but on a wave of disillusionment.

Moreover, unlike Salvini and Berlusconi, she has tak en a resolutely anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine stance over the war, just like the outgoing Draghi. With Ukraine now making gains in that war, this is unlikely to change. Meloni may in the past have admired Vladimir Putin’s social conservatism, but she is not going to back a loser.

ECONOMIC REVISIONISM?

The big questions about the new government, at least for non-Italians, concern its economic policy. In his 18 months in office, Draghi put Italy’s economy in what might be described as a benign straitjacket: he wrote a public investment plan for Italy to receive €190 billion ($183.3 billion) from the European Union’s NextGeneration EU scheme over five years, four of which still lie ahead. This entailed establishing a rigor ous system for auditing and monitoring that expendi ture, and agreeing to meet stringent conditions set by the European Commission before each tranche of pay ment is released.

As a self-declared “sovereigntist,” Meloni is no fan of stringent conditions from Brussels. Nor, with the whole right-wing coalition backed by an array of vest ed interests among small and medium-size businesses, will she be a fan of pro-competition reforms or even rig orous auditing. But the large flows of cash involved will be crucial for Italy’s medium-term economic growth, implying that her sovereigntist instincts are set for a contest with pragmatic realism.

The new government will not be sworn in until late October, and yet will immediately have to prepare a budget for 2023. Meloni’s choice of finance minister will be the most keenly watched appointment of all. It is hard to imagine she will want to start her term by pick ing fights with the European Commission, especially with a tough winter of high energy prices and scarce gas ahead. But she is new and untested, so no one can be entirely sure.

UKRAINE WAR: 7 MONTHS & COUNTING!

Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has polarized the world, disrupted international supply chains and created economic distress in Europe

Maj. Gen. Moni Chandi is the CSO at Synergia Foundation & a former Inspector General of the elite Na tional Security Guard.

Despite thousands of Ukrainians losing their lives, millions of others being displaced and infrastructure being bombed to rubble, there appears to be little prospects for peace. What sus tains the belligerents, in stubbornly adopting such uncompromising positions, despite the staggering costs of the war?

Seven months have now elapsed, since Russia launched the ‘special military operation’, in Ukraine. Despite mount ing civilian & soldier casualties, millions of displaced citi zens, destruction of infrastructure and collapse of the do mestic economy, the Volodymyr Zelenskyy Government does NOT appear inclined, either for ceasefire or settle ment. On the other hand, the unprecedented Western eco nomic sanctions against Russia, appear to have back-fired on the European Union, who appear to be heading towards, economic-recession, energy outages and a cold winter.

Why are there NO Prospects for Ceasefire, in the Ukraine Conflict? Original Perspectives of Key-Players. There are five key-players to the Ukraine Conflict and each had an in dependent original perspective: -

(A) THE RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE.

The Russian perspective was to stop Ukraine from join

Russia is now likely to attempt consolidating their hold in Eastern Ukraine, through referendums. After which, they will increase Ukraine’s cost of aggression by nuclear posturing (threatening use of tactical nuclear weapons) and augmenting soldier strength, on the frontlines.

ing NATO and also to stop NATO deployment in Ukraine. It was a position repeatedly articulated by Russia for several years, even before hostilities broke out, on 24 Feb, 2022.

(B) THE UKRAINE PERSPECTIVE.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the democratically elected Pres ident of Ukraine, was insistent on joining the EU. He was ambivalent on the issue of joining NATO; but, many Euro pean & American leaders expressed encouragement for NA TO’s progressive Eastern deployment.

(C) THE US PERSPECTIVE.

Even before the commencement of the conflict, US Pres ident Joe Biden categorically stated that US troops would NOT be deployed in Ukraine. However, the US would con tinue to provide moral, economic and military hardware, to counter the Russian threat. The US was keen that Ukraine joined NATO and emphasized that Russia should NOT dic tate Ukraine’s foreign policy choices.

(D) THE EU PERSPECTIVE.

The EU Parliament strongly supported the US perspective (Ukraine joining NATO, despite Russia’s concerns). Historical precedent supported this point of view; between 1991-2017, 15 European nations joined NATO. However, unlike the US, the EU was heavily de pendent on Russia for imports; estimated at US$ 169B, in 2021. Imports included natural gas, crude-oil, metals, ores, fertilizer, machinery and food grains, amongst oth er products.

(E)REST OF THE WORLD.

With the exception of Canada, Australia and the UK, the rest-of-the-world adopted a more neutral pos ture. While they condemned the conflict and called for a ceasefire, they refused to take sides, in the obvious proxy war between the US and Russia.

7-Months Into the Conflict, Who’s Feeling the Pain?

(A)THE RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE.

If the Russians had hoped for an early collapse of the Kiev Government that did NOT happen. 31 nations, in cluding US and European nations poured considerable military assistance to Ukraine. The assistance includes the M-142 HIMARS (Lockheed Martin) rocket-missile system, with a range of 80-300 Km, Javelin (Lockheed Martin) anti-tank missiles and Stinger (Raytheon) an ti-aircraft missiles, which have exposed vulnerabilities of Russian tanks, combat vehicles and aircraft. The in troduction of drones into Ukrainian battlefields Switch blade (AeroVironment) and the M-9 Reaper (General Atomic Aeronautical Systems) have been game-chang ers, for conventional mobile operations. The recent Ukrainian counter-offensive in Izyum and Kupiansk, has won back Russian-seized territory, forcing Russia to strategically rebalance the war effort.

(B) THE UKRAINE PERSPECTIVE.

The big loser in this war has been the people of Ukraine. According to the UNHCR, 7.4M Ukrainian refugees have crossed into Europe and a further 2.4M have crossed into Belarus and Russia. According to one World Bank report, Ukraine would need US$ 349B to reconstruct the damages of the war. As a consequence of the war, President Zelenskyy has presided over the displacement of his citizens (externally displaced alone are approximately 25% of the 44M population) and destruction of infrastructure, which will need interna tional assistance & decades to rebuild. In gambling, the Martingale Strategy, refers to doubling one’s bet with every loss, in the hope that one eventual win, will re deem all losses. Has the Zelenskyy Government adopt ed the Martingale Strategy, with Russia?

(C)THE US PERSPECTIVE.

The US has provided an estimated US$ 14.5B, in military assistance to Ukraine. The military assistance supports US national interests; it provides lucrative

contracts for US defense industries, releases obsolete military inventory and encourages other European countries to invest more in US manufactured defense equipment. The Big Five US defense companies (Lock heed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Electric) are doing brisk business with order books filling up, into the future. Since the out break of the conflict, Lockheed Martin’s share-price has increased 12%; while that of Northrop Grumman’s has increased 20%.

(D) THE EU PERSPECTIVE.

After Ukraine, the other big loser is the EU. Natural Gas prices are at 10-times the normal level, with pros pects of black-outs and rationing, as winter advances. Many energy intensive companies in Aluminum, Fertil izer and Glass-manufacturing, are evaluating options of forced shutdowns or bankruptcy. Inflation in the Euro Zone reached 9.1% in August, 2022 and food shortages are expected in super markets. Public protests against inflation have been witnessed in the UK, Moldova, Italy, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic and even Belgium.

(E) REST OF THE WORLD.

The Rest-of-the-World, who largely adopted the neutral posture are becoming increasingly concerned with escalation, in the prolonging conflict. In the new dynamics of the multi-polar world, who should mediate when two superpowers engage in proxy war? With the US encouraging Ukraine’s Kamikaze approach, Russia escalating the costs of the war and Europe on the brink of economic disaster, it is time for sane & reasonable voices (Rest-of-the-World) to tell the belligerents to step back (ceasefire) and negotiate their seemingly ir reconcilable differences. This is NOT the era of warfare!

What Does Russia’s Strategic Recalibration Involve?

There is increasing pressure on President Putin to bring the Ukraine conflict to a close. Even the PRC and India endorsed the need for ceasefire & negotiations, during the recently concluded SCO meeting at Tash kent, Uzbekistan. Russia’s strategic recalibration is

likely to involve the following: -

(A) REFERENDUMS IN RUSSIAN-SPEAK ING EASTERN UKRAINE.

Between 23-27 September, 2022, referendums will be conducted in Russia-recognized republics of Do netsk & Luhansk; as well as, the Russia-administered regions of Kerson and Zaporizhzhia. While Ukraine and the West have denounced the referendums, the result expected is predicted to be, in favor of merger, with the Russian Federation.

(B) RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE.

Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine permits the use of Nucle ar weapons, when the existence of the nation is threat ened. Many Military analysts believe Russia would use nuclear threat for the newly acquired territories of Ukraine; firstly, to dissuade Ukraine from escalating the conventional conflict and secondly, to bring them to the negotiating table.

(C) ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.

The 5700 MW Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. It has six light-water nuclear reactors. The nuclear plant was cap tured by Russia, in the early stages of the war. In recent weeks, there has been fighting in the proximity of the plant, raising fears of damage to the reactors and the spread of nuclear contamination.

Both Russia and Ukraine blame each other for shell ing in proximity to the nuclear installation. However, in fairness, it is challenging to understand why Russia would like to damage the installation, already in their possession. Despite other serious shortcomings of the UN, the IAEA has established ‘continuous presence’, at

the installation and all six reactors have been brought to ‘cold shut-down’ state.

(D) PARTIAL MOBILIZATION.

On 21 Sept, 2022, President Putin announced par tial national mobilization, to draft an additional 3L sol diers. At the commencement of the conflict, Ukraine had a standing army of 2L soldiers and 2.5L reserves. Ukraine has probably enrolled all reserves, by now. On the other hand, Russia commenced operations with an estimated strength of 1.9L soldiers and had been attempting to prosecute operations, with equipment superiority alone. Though it may take several weeks for additional manpower to be deployed in Ukraine, the 1000 Km frontline is in urgent need of manpower augmentation, on the Russian side.

Assessment

At this juncture, in the conventional war, despite catastrophic losses, Ukraine is inflicting pain on Russia. Russia is now likely to attempt consolidating their hold in Eastern Ukraine, through referendums. After which, they will increase Ukraine’s cost of aggression by nuclear posturing (threatening use of tactical nuclear weapons) and augmenting soldier strength, on the frontlines.

In the economic war, Europe faces the prospects of a cold winter, inflation, food shortage and public unrest. Why were Europe’s leaders unable to protect the interests of their citizens? For students of International Relations, the EU is the most successful form of multilateralism in history. However, in the face of the Ukraine War and pressure from the US, did European Commissioners forfeit citizen’s interests, in the boardroom of international diplomacy?

ECONOMIC OR POLITICAL GAMBLE?

Liz Truss has thrown the dice to fulfil her promises; will it boomerang on her and her party’s fortunes?

William John Emmott is an English journalist, author, and consultant, best known as the editor-in-chief of The Economist newspaper from 1993 to 2006.

T wo European countries have now chosen right-wing, avowedly radical female leaders, but so far, only one of them has caused a fi nancial shock, and it isn’t Giorgia Meloni.

Liz Truss became Britain’s new prime minister only three weeks ago, and much of that time was taken up by the Queen’s state funeral. Nonetheless, in the short period available to her, Prime Minister Truss has driven the pound sterling to record lows and may be on course to trigger a downgrading of the UK by credit-rating agencies.

TOO EAGER TO PLEASE?

The specific action that caused this was a sudden but dramatic budget announced by her new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng. Both he and his boss have de clared themselves believers in a small state and low taxes, calling on the hallowed memory of Margaret Thatcher.

They decided to implement this vision in a huge hurry, just days after announcing Europe’s most generous package of energy subsidies for households and businesses and ig nored the inconvenient fact that Margaret Thatcher hated debt, public borrowing and inflation more than anything else.

It was the hurry that most seemed to have shocked and

The declared aim of this huge fiscal stimulus is to raise the UK’s economic growth in the short term to avoid a recession in the long term by boosting business investment and productivity. The combined effect of that inflation, higher borrowing and nervous investors could bring on precisely the recession that Ms Truss has pledged to avoid.

alarmed financial markets. The British economy is not yet in a recession but is experiencing price inflation, which is at the high end of the European range. The promise to cap energy prices by paying generous subsidies, if necessary, for as long as two years seemed to have dealt with the worst pressure on the cost of living and on business, albeit at the risk of higher public borrowing.

Yet it wasn’t enough for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng. So, with no preparation time, no accompanying plan announced for managing the public finances, and with the independent forecasting agency, the Office for Budget Responsibility, forbidden to produce new economic predictions, they an nounced the biggest round of tax cuts seen since 1971.

The declared aim of this huge fiscal stimulus is to raise the UK’s economic growth in the short term to avoid a re cession in the long term by boosting business investment and productivity. Those seem like noble aims, but they are not believed in by financial markets, which promptly drove the value of the pound down to record lows against the US dollar, leaving it also down by about 7 per cent against the

currencies of its main trading partners since the begin ning of August.

POLITICAL COMPULSIONS VIS A VIS FISCAL PRUDENCE

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the real aim of this hurried, radical, tax-cutting budget was for Ms Truss to stamp her authority on her own Conservative Party. Her victory in the vote among party members was not as decisive as she would have hoped, and she had fewer votes among MPs than her opponent did. Unlike Ms Meloni, her political position looks weak, and she is probably looking anxiously ahead to a potential general election in 2023 or early 2024.

In that light, attempting to stimulate economic growth in the short term and please voters by cutting their taxes might make sense. The first problem is that the tax cuts have only really pleased rich people and businesses, for they benefited far more from this budget than did poor or middle-class people. The second prob lem could be worse: like a boomerang, this budget could swing round and hit Ms Truss and the British economy quite hard.

On their own, tax cuts and extra public borrowing could indeed support faster economic growth in the short term, keeping unemployment close to its current shallow levels. However, by focusing the tax cuts on the rich, the budget risks this benefit being quite limited, as those on high incomes may well put their extra money into savings rather than spending it, and businesses may

not invest much more in these uncertain times just be cause the tax on their profits has been reduced.

The fall in the pound’s value, meanwhile, will add to price inflation by raising the cost of imported goods and is likely to force the Bank of England to raise offi cial interest rates quite sharply. The combined effect of that inflation, higher borrowing and nervous investors could bring on precisely the recession that Ms Truss has pledged to avoid.

Britain’s new prime minister has defined her po litical and policy identity quickly and decisively. This may guarantee her a successful appearance at the Con servatives’ annual party conference, which opens next weekend. But if such a radical move boomerangs, her reputation and party support will quickly disappear.

The United Kingdom has the good fortune to bor row mainly in its currency, so it is not vulnerable to the acute financial crisis when foreign lenders lose confi dence and start to bet against a nation’s debt. But it can suffer a slow but tight squeeze as lenders, whether Brit ish or foreign, demand higher interest rates on all their loans to the government and UK businesses.

As the UK already has the largest balance of pay ments deficit in Europe after Greece and the highest budget deficit in all of Europe, it is a country that needs to keep its lenders happy. To borrow a famous and very British wartime slogan, “Keep calm and carry on”,; Ms Truss’s gamble, with tax, borrowing, debt and inflation, is anything but calm.

BUILDING SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE

A supply chain is as strong as its most vulnerable link; with the disruption of one element, the entire pipeline will grind to a halt.

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Since the pandemic disrupted global supply chains of semiconductors, the impact has been felt across a wide spectrum of industries. Every industry faces supply bottlenecks and delays from automobiles (with over 40 per cent drop in revenues of some majors) to smartphones, consumer dura bles, and electronics.

Writing for MITSupplyChains, James B. Rice and Ken Cottril state that supply chain disruptions are caused pri marily by supply capacity losses. However, there is not a key capacity that if fixed, can make your system resilient; sup ply chain disruptions could be linked to an assortment of capacity failures. Therefore, the interdependency between various capacities must be understood to achieve high levels of resilience in the supply chain.

FIXING CAPACITIES

In a study conducted by Rice and Ken on disruptions caused by natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina (2005) and the US-China trade war (2019), and the pandemic (2020), seven core factors were identified that could “hob ble” supply chains in different ways. However, supply capac ity was the common factor in all the crises that were studied.

Companies trying to keep costs low are confronted by the perennial question-how much capacity to build in their system. The answer is extremely complex with many inputs, including go-to-market strategy, target and minimum ser

However, there is not a key capacity that if fixed, can make your system resilient; supply chain disruptions could be linked to an assortment of capacity failures. Therefore, the interdependency between various capacities must be understood to achieve high levels of resilience in the supply chain.

vice level, working capital, the projected demand, ability to absorb risk, resilience anticipated and market behaviour. Most importantly, there is an interdependency that links to gether these seven core capacities.

The first is Supply. It is subject to the intensity of the supply chain, which depends upon the full utilisation of replacement capacity, and the long cycle times required to recreate capacity (from months to multiple years).

The second is Transportation: Availability of mode, route, labour, and equipment. For example, ocean-going conveyances are capital intensive, and acquiring them can be lengthy. Replacing over-the-road transportation requires capital, and cycle times vary from long (e.g., when buying new trucks) to relatively short (e.g., when truck capacity is available for hire).

The third is Converting/Internal Ops: Availability of la bour, equipment, and facilities. The time required for a facil ity will range from short-term for basic ones (e.g., warehous ing space) to several years (e.g., building semiconductor fab facilities).

Fourth is Human Resources: People’s availability varies according to skill levels. This is a relatively shortterm constraint, although demographic trends suggest longer cycle times.

Fifth is Communications: Availability of tech equip ment and protocols for communicating internally and externally. The cycle time to recreate capacity is rela tively short-term.

Sixth is Financial Resources: Capital and cash po sition, cash conversion cycle or CCC, working capital ratios, profitability, and debt-to-equity or D/E ratio. Relatively short-term issues if the firm has favourable ratios, but longer-term or intractable if the firm’s ratios are poor. Businesses often fail through a lack of cash and/or credit.

The seventh and last is Distribution to Customers. Availability of distribution outlets to customers (i.e., retail and online stores and processes). This factor has become more complicated as e-commerce has grown and brick-and-mortar retailing has declined.

A single link in the supply chain can bring the en tire system to a halt. This was seen in the scarcity of baby formula in the U.S when the Abbot plant closed down abruptly, leading to supply shortages at the end of the supply chain. Similarly, the global food and fer tiliser shortage is not due to disruption at the start of the supply chain (Ukraine ) but the naval blockade of the Ukrainian ports and a loss of capacity to ship and/or transport products.

Such critical linkages must be identified and evalu ated for their resilience.

THINKING AHEAD

The business world tends to conduct its commercial operations on a day-to-day basis with little monitoring of the global geopolitical situation, which may trigger the next catastrophic disruption. A far-off incident, like tensions in the Taiwan Straits, has repercussions in a factory assembling smartphones in Tamil Nadu, India or a sprawling BMW plant in Germany.

Another ‘known unknown’ is a large-scale cyber as sault on multiple supply chains concurrently. The most vulnerable is core factors, including supply, shipping/ transporting products, internal manufacturing, and distributing products. Preparations for such attacks are critical for resilience. Suppliers that are connected dig itally or use embedded codes must be identified as they will be the most vulnerable targets. All transactions with such suppliers must follow well-established proto cols, and before trusting the supply chain on their prod uct, they must be subjected to stringent cyber audits. Alternate suppliers that can create short-term bypasses in the supply chain must be coordinated both upstream and downstream to ensure continuity.

Every corporate organization must build on its own experiences to develop response protocols and test them through scenario playing, as is done by the mili tary in their ‘tabletop war games.’

AMERICAN INFLATION WORRIES

Anticipation of the Federal Reserve hiking up interest rates to combat recession sends shivers down the collective spine of global economics.

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Today, the American political narrative is dom inated by inflation concerns. Food prices in creased by 0.8 per cent in August, along with shelter prices which rose by 0.7 per cent. Medical care has also risen by 0.7 percent.

As inflation peaks to newer levels in the U.S., experts be lieve it’s time for the Federal Reserve to step in and raise interest rates more aggressively. Some experts accuse the Federal Reserve of being “overly cautious.”

Globally supply chain bottlenecks have not helped postCOVID recovery as they have caused severe economic blocks. However, there is a widespread view that the gov ernment’s generous stimulus in the U.S. has caused more distortions leading to a spike in inflation. “We’re likely to be over-stimulating the economy, and that’s going to generate substantial inflation,” said Lawrence Henry Summers, a for mer U.S. Secretary of the Treasury.

The Fed has not ignored rising inflation and has al ready implemented four interest rate hikes in 2022. Feder al Reserve chairman Jerome Powell maintained the central bank’s commitment to reducing inflation, stating that “we will keep at it until we are confident the job is done” even if the policy may “bring some pain to households and busi nesses.”

The impact of interest rate hikes and rising inflation are

A strong dollar can create inflation for other countries because it increases import prices. For emerging economies, in particular, the impact can be harsh, especially those where the dollar debt represents a large portion of their gross domestic product.

multiple on the common man. The cost of living has steadily increased despite a 10.6 per cent decline in gas prices. Eco nomic growth is doubly impacted by inflation, which erodes spending power, and interest rate hikes, which make bor rowing more expensive. For consumers, it also means that the cost of debt will increase for credit cards, auto financing and personal loans.

Beyond economics, the August inflation numbers pres ent a problem for the Biden administration as they try to minimise its negative impact on the November midterm elections.

A STITCH IN TIME…

The Fed is responsible for managing monetary policy for the United States, which means controlling the money sup ply in the country’s economy. Controlling interest rates is the most prominent and effective monetary policy tool at the Fed’s disposal.

The Fed effectively manages the federal funds rate by raising interest rates, also called the federal funds target rate. This is a reference for the interest rates big commercial

banks charge each other for overnight loans. This some what indirect arrangement sets the federal funds rate as the most important benchmark for interest rates in the U.S. economy.

When the Fed raises the federal funds’ target rate, it increases the cost of credit throughout the economy. This, in turn, makes loans more expensive for both busi nesses and consumers, and everyone ends up spending more on interest payments. It simultaneously encour ages people to save money (instead of spending) to earn higher interest payments.

THE DOLLAR STORY

While fears of a recession loom, the U.S. economy is still in better shape than other economies, including the United Kingdom, European nations and Japan. The U.S. dollar has been on a strong path owing to a combination of factors which make the dollar a better bet for inves tors than most other currencies.

As the growth outlook for the world economy wors ens, investors have relied on the dollar, putting their money into safer assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. That has pushed up the currency’s value.“ More recently, it has less to do with the U.S. and more to do with a glob al downturn,” says Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.

The International Monetary Fund maintains that the dollar has been rising, supported by the Federal Re serve’s policy to increase interest rates. A strong dollar can create inflation for other countries because it in creases import prices. For emerging economies, in par ticular, the impact can be harsh, especially those where the dollar debt represents a large portion of their gross domestic product. Repaying creditors can be daunting to countries with rapidly depreciating currencies like Argentina and Turkey. For Sri Lanka, in its extremely fragile state, it has become impossible.

Other currencies have benefitted from the rise in energy and food prices, which accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, like Angola, a major oil producer; Uruguay, a key food exporter; and Brazil, which trades energy and agricultural commodities.

The Russian Rouble has been one of the best-per forming currencies against the dollar this year. Capital controls imposed by Russia have kept most of the mon ey inside the country, which has propped up the official exchange rate.

The prognosis for the dollar appears strong as Eu rope faces an energy crisis, Japan resists raising interest rates, China’s COVID-19 lockdown policies clog its sup ply chains, and many other countries struggle with high inflation.

INDIA IMPACT

It has often been said with reason that when Amer ica sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. This is

evident in its impact on the global equities, currencies, and commodities markets.

The Fed’s action has already put the global equities markets on the run. The Indian equities markets key in dices plunged three days in a row. The Indian rupee has slipped to 80.86 against the US dollar.

The Fed’s rate hike puts pressure on the stock mar ket. Investors pull assets away from emerging markets when the US raises interest rates, and capital flow moves towards the American economy.

The US Fed has been more aggressive in increasing interest rates than the RBI. The policy interest rate gap between the US and India has been steadily narrowing. It stood at 3.85 per cent at the beginning of the year and has now come down to 2.25 per cent. It is widely ex pected that the RBI will hike repo rate by 35 to 50 basis points at the end of this month.

The Indian economy is heavily linked to the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate action. The high-interest rate in the U.S. has a direct impact on Indian equities as they become less attractive to foreign investors. This could lead to capital outflow from India and further pressure the Indian rupee. A weak rupee makes imports costlier and further widens the current account deficit. This could impact the trade deficit as well. The situa tion may lead to prolonged inflation forcing the RBI to go for an aggressive policy rate hike.

Currently, the Indian economy seems to be in rel atively good shape, with growth coming from all quar ters and inflation relatively under control. It is expected that a softening of crude prices will augur well for the economy, and we could start the interest rate cut cycle from the early part of FY24.

“We may see some correction in the U.S. dollar once the central bank acknowledges improvement in the in flation situation. Another challenge for the U.S. dollar could be aggressive tightening by other central banks to control inflation and possible central bank interven tions to support their currencies,” says Ravindra Rao, head of commodity research at Kotak Securities.

Assessment

The rest of the world closely watches the American economic situation. The U.S. is not alone in the current economic quicksand as developing economies, in particular, struggle with the energy crisis and rising inflation.

The dollar now stands strong, devaluing currencies around the world. This unsettles the outlook for the global economy as it disturbs the costs of nearly everything, from the cost of a vacation abroad to the profitability of multinational companies.

SAND SCARCITY?

Sand has come to occupy a principal role in industrialized societies and is now viewed as a precious resource, thereby prompting another front in gray zone warfare.

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It may sound ludicrous, but the world is facing a growing shortage of sand. This is when the Earth is overflowing with sand, from Thar to Sahara to the Sahel, in beaches girdling our oceans and along river beds flowing into the seas.

Human civilisation has essentially been built on sandsfrom great sprawling ancient cities to modern megapolises and ancient Roman roads to modern expressways; all con sume an astonishing amount of sand. Concrete and asphalt have sand as the bulk component, while glass and silicon chips too, need their share of sand, albeit of the rarest and purest kind.

RUNNING OUT OF SAND

As per a March 2021 article in the CNBC blog, “Sand is the world’s most consumed raw material after water ”.

Sadly, like all other commodities, there is Sand, and there is Sand; only some variety of sand is worth the vast uses it is put to. Gulf countries that are seeing a huge con struction boom for the last three decades, import sand from as far as Australia. Even sand bunkers in golf courses being constructed in luxury resorts all over the Gulf need fine white imported sand.

Desert sand, as plentiful as it may be, is just not of the right shape- it is too rounded and too smooth and cannot be used in strong concrete. For that, angular sand is need ed that is found in riverbeds and floodplains, lakes and on some seashores. Similarly, high-quality glass needs white sand, which as per industry experts, is just enough for the next two decades.

Speaking at a Chatham House event, Pascal Peduzzi, a climate scientist with the UN Environment Programme, is quoted as saying, “We just think that Sand is everywhere. We never thought we would run out of Sand, but it is starting in some places. It is about anticipating what can happen in the next decade or so because if we don’t look forward if we don’t anticipate, we will have massive problems about sand supply but also about land planning.”

Speaking at a Chatham House event, Pascal Peduzzi, a climate scientist with the UN Environment Programme, is quoted as saying, “We just think that Sand is everywhere. We never thought we would run out of Sand, but it is start ing in some places. It is about anticipating what can happen in the next decade or so because if we don’t look forward, if we don’t anticipate, we will have massive problems about sand supply but also about land planning.”

There is only limited availability of sand, and nature needs it too. Hectic construction activity has resulted in depleting levels of sand which natural processes can’t re plenish at the same rate. Coastal erosion, diversity loss, and flooding are only some of the threats facing us as we battle sand scarcity.

The Global Resource Information Database in Geneva, a partnership between the United Nations Environment Pro gramme (UNEP), the Swiss government, and the University of Geneva, estimates that “every year, the world builds the equivalent of a wall 27 meters high and 27 meters wide

spanning the whole equator.” That’s 50 billion tons each year. At this rate, Earth will run out of sand sooner than later.

A LUCRATIVE BUSINESS

This enormous global demand is centered around China, India, and Nigeria, where development has placed enormous pressure on cities and construction. With good quality sand getting scarcer, prices have sky rocketed, drawing powerful criminal mafia networks into the business. Governments have failed miserably to curb the illegal sand mining out of riverbeds, beach es, and floodplains, largely because many countries like India have a strong politico-criminal nexus in the sand business. Unsurprisingly, a slippery black market for sand has emerged globally, and blood, money and kill ings dominate it.

The damage caused by rampant illegal mining has been enormous in China, leading even to the Com munist Party calling it irreparable! Since 2000, central authorities have declared limitations on dredging of sand from the Yangzi river basin to save embankments which are in danger of collapse during the rainy season. This has, however, only resulted in driving diggers to the country’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang where its wildlife, including rare cranes and porpoises, are now under threat.

SAND GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitics also play a part, with China on top of the list of countries exploiting this natural resource to the hilt, driving global demand and prices and leaving environmental havoc in its wake. China imports hun dreds of millions of dollars worth of Sand from around the world, including Taiwan and Sri Lanka, leading to environmental degradation.

Taiwan has responded by assigning a new frigate, the Hsinchu, to Taiwan’s Northern Pacific Flotilla to pro tect one of Taiwan’s most precious maritime resources: Sand. China’s dredging of sand is causing maritime deg radation in Taiwan, and the frigates are already costing Taiwan almost $400 million. This puts an extra burden on Taiwan by diverting vital financial and military re sources to its coast guard. This has been viewed as a prime example of gray zone aggression which, while not military, is still damaging to the targeted country.

THE INDIAN SCENE

Along with China, India is one of the top consum ers of sand, and the market is largely unregulated and working on the margins of legality. Internecine fighting amongst the sand mafia results in hundreds of homi cides every year. These include police and government authorities, environmental activists and just ordinary folks all over India.

The real estate boom and construction projects caught everyone’s attention, and demand for sand has risen. Construction has now become a huge poll issue

in Punjab. Parties are vying with one another to make sand cheaper as an election ruse, while others are vow ing to bring an end to illegal mining. The political-sand mafia nexus figures strongly in the political narrative of the Indian state of Punjab.

Politics dominates the sand business in the South Indian state of Andhra Pradesh also. Shortage of sand and a slump in construction activity have led to acute suffering and even suicides in the state capital! In re sponse to the previous government’s alleged favor of gangs, the new government initially banned sand min ing, creating a severe shortage and skyrocketing prices. Several lakh laborers were rendered jobless due to the complete halt on construction activity.

A new sand policy was introduced, promising to provide sand at low cost from government-owned stockyards. The government has proposed to track the movement of sand and ensure adequate supply, thereby preventing black marketing, hoarding and artificial sup ply shortage. However, this did not play out as planned as against a daily demand of 1.50 lakh tonnes, state au thorities could only make 40,000 tonnes of sand avail able.

Assessment

Embedded in the mining, evacuation and transportation of sand is the deeply divisive debate on sustainability. Sustainability has become a political battleground, translating into people making choices through the governments they elect which in turn puts focus on how much emphasis they wish to place on sustainability. The sand wars are indicative of this sustainability dilemma.

The tussle for sand has myriad socio–economic implications and the involvement of politicians and a mafia connection has further soiled the plot. This dangerous nexus is hard to break as we witness it globally.

Can technology provide any solutions to the environmental degradation caused by sand mining, construction and rapid industrialisation? We need to ensure a sustainable combination of economics which works for everyone. And perhaps technology can provide some solutions to sustainable alternatives for sand in the future!

Can AI surmount technical and capacity constraints for large-scale adoption in business applications?

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AI and Machine Learning have become integral to enterprise technological environments and generate value for most businesses.

Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of machines to understand the world around them, learn and make decisions in a similar way to the human brain.

In recent years AI has broken out of science labs and technological discourses to enter almost every aspect of human activity. Not surprisingly, the busi ness world too has been trying very hard to leverage AI to improve its profitability.

AI and Machine Learning have become integral to en terprise technological environments and generate value for most businesses. MIT Technology Review Insights shows that of 600 CIOs only 6 per cent or less say they don’t use AI in any of the seven core enterprise functions.

OMNIPRESENT AI

As complicated as it may sound, we are already well on our way to making AI an essential component of our lives. AI-enabled programmes fall into two main categories; im proving customer experience with smart products and ser vices and improving business operations. It is used broadly for machine learning, cybersecurity, customer relationship management, internet searches and personal assistants.

Everyday applications like smart assistants (Siri and Al exa), customer service or help desk chatbots, facial recogni tion technology and algorithms used by Amazon and Net flix to generate personalized recommendations are a few

that are AI-enabled. There has been an explosion of smart, AI-enabled products and services recently. The Roomba ro bot vacuums use AI to scan the room, pinpoint obstacles and determine how much hovering is needed based on the room size.

Social media providers have been leaders in the field of AI. Twitter is known to use AI to identify hate speech, fake news and illegal content and Instagram combats cyberbully ing with the help of AI.

Robo-advisors are online financial advisors that use AI to deliver personalized financial advice. This represents a financial revolution which promises to open up financial planning to the masses.

AI has made inroads into business operations, including predictive maintenance, which helps companies repair or re place service parts and machinery at the optimum time be fore it breaks down. Dominos has begun a trial with Starship Technology’s automated delivery robots to deliver pizzas in Germany. IBM has another innovative application whereby its Chef Watson tool uses AI to help restaurants develop recipes and suggest innovative flavour combinations.

Machine learning in smart energy management systems collect a vast amount of data from sensors affixed to vari ous assets. These data sets are then contextualised by ma

chine-learning algorithms and delivered to your compa ny’s decision-makers to better understand energy usage and maintenance demands.

AI has come to be used quite prominently in cyber security as AI systems can recognise a cyberattack, as well as other cyberthreats, by monitoring patterns from data input. Once a threat is detected, AI systems can backtrack through data to find the source and help pre vent a future threat.

AI has already been used extensively in customer re lationship management, which updates a normal CRM system and transforms it into a self-updating, auto-cor recting system that stays on top of your relationship management.

AI has transformed Internet and data research by identifying patterns in people’s search behaviours and providing them with more relevant information regard ing their circumstances.

At a more advanced business level, AI-enabled bots can be used as personal assistants to help manage emails, maintain your calendar and even provide rec ommendations for streamlining processes.

These bots have also been used as assistants to an swer questions for customers who call or chat online.

AI IN BUSINESS

AI has been touted as the next big game changer in business as it impacts a range of applications including streamlining job processes and aggregating business data. AI has revolutionised digital technology out of the two-dimensional screen to bring it into the three-di mensional physical environment surrounding an indi vidual.

Machine learning now forms a key part of AI’s input for business purposes. Machine learning is primarily used to quickly process large amounts of data by rapidly analysing the data as it comes in, and identifying pat terns and anomalies.

Deep learning has arrived as an even more specif ic version of machine learning which is critical to per forming more advanced functions such as fraud detec tion. Deep learning relies on neural networks to engage in what is now referred to as ‘nonlinear reasoning.’

Deep learning processes are also used to help self-driving cars analyse multiple information points, like the distance of other objects, the speed at which they are moving and a prediction of where they will be in 5-10 seconds. This information is processed to help a self-driving car decide when to change lanes.

AI’S STUMBLING BLOCKS

Addressing shortcomings in companies’ data man agement and infrastructure, as well as internal structur al, process rigidities and talent deficits, appear key to surmounting the challenges impeding the rapid adop tion of AI.

Research from MIT sheds light on these and other data constraints that organisations must address to un leash AI’s potential for business transformation. It also identifies the investments and other measures, along with companies’ plans to align their data capabilities more closely with their AI ambitions.

Data tops the list as the biggest challenge for AI as most participants in the MIT research confirmed that unifying their data platform for analytics and AI is the biggest step in making AI a reality. Addressing multiple digital divides forms a key component of prioritising

equal opportunity for everyone.

AI has survived the initial hype with which it was born but commercial applications are still in the early stages of maturity. There are clear challenges concern ing companies’ data management and infrastructure, internal structural and process rigidities and talent deficits. The need to improve processing speeds, gover nance, and quality of data, as well as its sufficiency for models, are clear imperatives if AI has to be scaled.

THE FUTURE OF AI

While it is hard to predict the future with AI, most experts see “commonsense” tasks becoming easier for computers to process. Robots are here to stay as they become increasingly applied to everyday life.

AI is expected to take digital technology out of the two-dimensional, screen-imprisoned form to which people have grown accustomed. The primary user inter face may become the physical environment surround ing an individual.

These dramatic changes naturally determine wheth er machines will force humans out of work. The jury is still out as some experts vehemently deny that AI will automate so many jobs that millions of people find themselves unemployed. In contrast, other experts see it as a pressing problem.

A severe alteration to the workforce might seem unlikely, but broad trends are already visible. Some ex perts believe that, as AI is integrated into the workforce, it will create more jobs – at least in the short term. As we affect a transition towards AI-based systems, this will likely cause the economy to add jobs that facilitate the transition.

Indeed, this transition is likely to take many years if not decades – across different sectors of the workforce. Even as AI becomes a more integrated part of the work force, it’s unlikely that all human jobs will disappear. Experts predict a workforce with more specialisation, and these roles will require a greater skill that robots haven’t yet picked up, like creativity, problem-solving and qualitative skills.

Essentially, there is likely to always be a need for people in the workforce, but their roles may shift as technology becomes more advanced. The demand for specific skills will shift, and many jobs will require a more advanced, technical skill set.

AI is clearly set to be a part of the future economy and society. As technology develops, there are bound to be new ideas, more start-ups, and numerous business applications and consumer uses, leading to the dis placement of certain jobs and the creation of entirely new ones. It is a time for transformation!

Assessment

While AI has become a mainstream tool in some domains, such as customer interface applications, there are still significant hurdles to pass in data and capacity constraints before AI becomes an everyday tool.

There are already some reservations about AI replacing human jobs, but rather than serve as a replacement for human intelligence and ingenuity, artificial intelligence is generally seen as a supporting tool.

DOLLAR ON THE BALL?

The Dollar is riding a rising wave that is not-so-good news for the rest of the world.

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While doomsday pundits have been predict ing the ultimate demise of the ‘greenback’ for years, the venerated Dollar has been outperforming most currencies in the recent past, reaching a 20-year high in July. It gained almost 20 per cent since last year against the basket of global currencies. On September 19th, the ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) stood at 109.5 against the euro, yen, and Pound.

After steadily climbing the graphs during 2021, it saw even better performance in the current year. From a low point of 94.63 in the middle of January, the Dollar rallied to 10.51 in early September.

The much-in-demand currency is on a roll. The Euro, which had always led the Dollar, has dipped below one Dol lar for the first time. Aspiring replacements of the Dollar standing on the wings-yuan, yen etc. have all straggled be hind the Dollar. The widespread sanctions targeting Russia have given further impetus to the demand for dollars with a rush to accumulate dollars as a haven.

WHAT IS PROPELLING THE $?

As the Dollar has been the bedrock of the global econ omy for almost a century, its value fluctuates with the ebb and flow of the American economy and the outlook for in ternational investors.

The fundamentals of the economy (extremely strong and transparent in the case of the U.S.), technological fac tors (again a high point for the U.S., which has always based its wealth on high value, mass use technological innovations and now being threatened by China on this account) and the

The rise of the Dollar brings misery to much of the world, especially the developing and emerging economies, which must pay for their import and energy bills in dollars.

geopolitical situation (the Northern American continents is the most stable right now in comparison to Asia-Pacific and Europe), all add to make or break economies. In all these basics, the U.S. would rank very high.

Despite high inflation, the American economy has been doing much better than Europe, Asia Pacific and China. En ergy crises have not impacted the U.S. economy as severely as Europe or Asia, courtesy of its massive investments in shale technology. The U.S. has fiercely held its position as a net energy exporter since 2019.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has been piling on the interest rates (four times this year alone, i.e. over 2.25 percentage points), attracting investors in hordes. Euro, the erstwhile supremo, has been struck down due to instability in Europe caused by the war and denial of cheap Russian oil and gas. Yen, too, has been impacted by rising energy prices and, as per experts, ‘loose monetary policies.’

As regards the Pound, the less said, the better; politi cal vacuum, the rising cost of living, high energy prices and blowbacks of a BREXIT done in haste against unrealistic deadlines all have compounded to make the Pound slide down against other currencies. Germany, the European eco nomic powerhouse, has seen a trade deficit for the first time since 1991.

The fundamental reason for the Dollar’s value to rise is the heavy demand for dollars in every corner of the globe. Individual citizens, foreign central banks and foreign finan cial institutions are all piling up on the dollar stocks, know

ing its value as the world’s reserve currency in these uncertain times. Speculation plays a part as Northern America’s political and geopolitical stability gives punt ers confidence.

The rise of the Dollar brings misery to much of the world, especially the developing and emerging econo mies, which must pay for their import and energy bills in dollars. When the U.S. Fed raises interest rates and pulls the capital towards the U.S., emerging markets get squeezed for money. While India, with a healthy dollar reserve, managed to weather out the storm, Sri Lanka went under, and Pakistan is struggling to keep its nose above the rising water!

LURKING DANGERS

The Dollar is still not entirely out of the woods, and its resilience and primacy challenges remain.Experts continue to talk of an imminent recession that will be the hardest on the U.S., spending extravagantly for the last two years of the pandemic to revitalise all segments of its economy. Without these fears, the Dollar could have breached even higher levels.

While American tourists thronging in their thou sands to European tourist magnets may be smiling as their travel plans have become cheaper, exporters are not pleased. More costly Dollar makes their products less competitive in an export market which has drasti cally shrunk since the pandemic. The European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates soon, something it has refused to do for the last decade. However, econo

mists call this move too little and too late and that this delay could slip the Eurozone into a recession, particu larly given no improvement in the dire energy scenario.

As per The Economist, three conditions must be met for the Dollar to weaken. Firstly, the global growth gap must narrow as a downtrend in significant econo mies worldwide will only see the flight of capital to the U.S. The second condition would be the Fed reducing its interest rates considerably, thus weakening its sup port for the Dollar, which could be triggered if there is a sharp decline in prices in the U.S. . Third, good news in the rest of the world on the economic front could be not-so-good news for the Dollar, especially if the energy sector pressures dramatically ease.

Another threat to the Dollar is the increasing use of state-run digital currencies like the Chinese e -yuan, which has over 250 million users and may extend to in ternational transactions on a commercial scale. India’s Unified Payment Interface (UPI) also creates shock waves, exhibiting powerful network effects. Over 120 million users are hooked on the UPI. While restricted to domestic use currently, they can easily be switched on for cross-border transactions as an option to the dollar-based system.

Cryptos offer another viable alternative. Their energy consumption is steadily coming down. The Ethereum blockchain has switched to a new mechanism called ‘proof of stake’, which has drastically reduced the ener gy demand, making it ideal for high volumes of money transactions worldwide.

A DISPUTED LEGACY

Amidst the blood and conflicts of Russian history, Gorbachev leaves behind a mark of peace and freedom, which is once more at threat in the region.

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G orbachev has left behind a confusing legacy which has earned him accolades from the West while invoking disdain from his fellow countrymen. He is, in fact, seen as a genesis of the rise of Putin, whose policies are nearly directly in contrast to Gorbachev! Russian nationalists view him as a traitor because he oversaw the collapse of the Soviet Union. There are others who praise him for freeing Russia from the corrupt totalitarianism of the former Soviet bloc.

Born in Privolnoye, Stavropol Krai, to a poor peasant family of Russian and Ukrainian heritage, Gorbachev’s early years were under the rule of Joseph Stalin. He later joined the Communist Party, which then governed the Soviet Union as a one-party state. Armed with a law degree, he be came a keen proponent of de-Stalinization reforms. His rise to power brought about many significant shifts in Russia, both within the country and in its relations with the West.

Gorbachev’s demise after a prolonged medical struggle at 92 raises important questions not only for Russia but for countries like India, who have maintained a strong relation ship with the country.

IDEAS FROM THE PAST

Gorbachev remains a controversial figure in Russian history. His funeral, which was not attended by the current President, is symbolic of the deep-seated emotions he rais es. He is hailed for the relatively peaceful dismantlement of a highly militarised totalitarian regime with the world’s larg est arsenal of nuclear weapons. His now familiar bywords of “glasnost” (openness) and “perestroika” (restructuring)

Gorbachev also had a dichotomous approach to economic reform. While he liberalised the Soviet economic and political system, he remained apprehensive about the capitalist market and the inadequacies it could inflict on the poor, more so in a society which had never known unemployment or private enterprise.

are credited with dismantling totalitarianism, abolishing censorship, freeing hundreds of political prisoners, and up holding competitive elections that inaugurated a decade of democratisation.

The impact on civil society in Russia is perhaps a long-lasting restatement of his efforts, as the early years of perestroika witnessed a proliferation of informal groups. These small clubs of citizens engaged in associational life, which forms the essence of democratic politics.

Dismantling the USSR and ending the Cold War earned him many friends abroad as it dismissed the possibility of nuclear annihilation. Gorbachev even tried to dismantle one-party rule in the Soviet Union to bring it closer to a Western-style social democratic. The confusion it left be hind was palpable as there remained an impossible balance between governing the complex country and its authoritar ian roots.

The terms consensus and pluralism remain etched in common Russian vocabulary as Gorbachev’s introductions to the political discourse.

His abhorrence for the nuclear trigger led to the active

dismantling of nuclear missiles in the Soviet Union. He is known for his idea of “Europe whole and free”, and he even proposed to build “a common European home” that included the Soviet Union.

Germany, the collapse of the Berlin Wall and its reunifi cation within NATO proved to be significant landmark moments in Gorbachev’s tenure. When he withdrew Soviet troops, it steered a new course for the Soviet Union and the world. It even led to a great controversy between Russia and NATO many years later. Gorbachev was recognised for his peace efforts in ending the East–West conflict with the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990.

A LOST LEGACY

Much of Gorbachev’s legacy remains in shambles at the moment in Russia. Vladimir Putin has set about destroying these achievements of democracy and civil liberties by mobilising militants behind a new totalitar ian project.

Education and culture are strictly policed by the state once more. Prisons are overflowing with inmates, and Russia is locked in a potentially apocalyptic con frontation with the West once again! The collapse of the Soviet Union is narrated as a national calamity in Russian discourse now. Putin’s regime has made it a top priority to reinstate Russia as a superpower.

Public memory in Russia is not necessarily in favour of Mr Gorbachev. He is remembered in some former Soviet republics more as a repressor of pro-indepen dence movements than as a liberator. His legacy is not often mired with chaos and criminality, which tainted the concept of democracy he advocated. Mr Putin is, in many ways, the product of this disillusionment with Gorbachev’s failed experiment with democracy. His attempts to restore authoritarianism with a neo-Sovi et, nationalist inflexion have resulted in an assault on Ukraine.

Gorbachev was criticised even during his own time for being indecisive and delaying action. His governance style was criticised by domestic critics and even some Western partners. His economics stood out as peculiar, whereby he granted more autonomy and a share of prof its to “the collectives” of state enterprises. At the same time, he did not allow private property and market re forms, fearing unemployment and inequality in the face of unrestrained capitalism.

In politics, it created large state structures which did not support a strong executive office which could replace the influence of the Communist party. He was blamed for ushering in Western influences too far, lead ing to chaos in a country which had thus far been ruled by authoritarian traditions.

Critics wanted him to use military and security ser vices to hold the empire together, but the Soviet eco nomic and social crises only grew as he refused to use force.

Gorbachev also had a dichotomous approach to eco nomic reform. While he liberalised the Soviet economic and political system, he remained apprehensive about the capitalist market and the inadequacies it could in flict on the poor, more so in a society which had never known unemployment or private enterprise. It resulted in the dismantling of the old system without creating an active, viable market economy resulting in lower living standards and a drop-in economic activity. A bad econ omy, however, lost him votes, and he had to give way to Boris Yeltsin, who launched a campaign to assert the full sovereignty of Russia within the decentralised Sovi et Union as a way out of “perestroika failure.”

INDIA AND GORBACHEV

Leaders from India and the erstwhile Soviet Union, Rajiv Gandhi and Mikhail Gorbachev, developed their relationship, which impacted their political fortunes in a similar fashion. Over a period of five years, many firsts, including military ties, economic bonds and stra tegic support, emerged to cement ties between the two countries.

As a soft touch, security concerns were used as a base for the development of issues such as food securi ty, illiteracy and communalism, and environmental se curity. The festival of India in 1987 in the Soviet Union was a hallmark of this exchange.

The collapse of the Soviet Union saw a reset in In dia’s foreign policy. Aided by domestic liberalisation of the economy, India developed growing ties with the U.S. and other Western nations and, importantly, diver sified its arms purchases. A tryst with Russia remains the cornerstone of India’s foreign policy, demonstrated by support from Putin for nuclear testing in 1998. This has been firmly reciprocated by India’s neutral stand in the aggression against Ukraine.

The Russian relationship continues to inform In dia’s geopolitical choices, as witnessed by India’s “neu tral” stand. India has broken US-led western sanctions to trade for oil with Russia, calling for a ceasefire and diplomacy for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Assessment

Personalities clearly remain central in foreign policy, and Gorbachev worked out a mutually reinforcing relationship between India and Russia, the effects of which are still visible today.

While his legacy at home remains questionable and largely forgotten, his strengthening bonds with India have truly stood the test of time. As India navigates fresh waters in international affairs, the ties of history and its connection with Russia clearly withstand India’s position on Ukraine. History leaves us with important markers for the future, and Gorbachev is one such defining personality in India’s destiny.

DIGITAL CONTROL OVER MIGRATION

The flow of people across sovereign boundaries is being monitored and analysed by AI.

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In a progressively global world, innovative tech nologies provide better virtual connectedness. Simultaneously, globalisation has brought about an increase in physical connections through inter national migration. Artificial Intelligence (AI), one of the topmost cutting-edge technologies, has long promised to deliver on various fronts, ranging from population studies to ability enhancement. Now, it has entered the field of migration studies.

MANAGING THE FLOW

The rise of innovative technology and migration across borders has urged countries to rethink how they deal with immigration and other related issues. AI opens leeway for innovation in migration. Many nations worldwide have be gun leveraging AI systems’ immense potential to mitigate crises aggravated by the ever-fluctuating and increasing mi gration changes ,and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Examples of its real-world applications currently in use include the United Nations High Commissioner for Refu gees (UNHCR), which uses it to monitor the movement of asylum seekers and refugees.

The UNHCR uses an AI-powered biometric matching engine to access documents and share them with organisa tions managing refugee flow. PRIMES, the system brings all the UNHCR’s digital registration, identity management and case management tools into one internally connected and interoperable ecosystem.

The rise of innovative technology and migration across borders has urged countries to rethink how they deal with immigration and other related issues. AI opens leeway for innovation in migration.

The New Zealand government is also using AI to im prove border security and streamline immigration. Other examples of the use of AI include data scraping and biomet ric recognition tools implemented by the U.S. government to track (and eventually deport) undocumented migrants. Georgia and EU member states have tapped into many tech nologies ranging from blockchain technology and AI to keep an eye on migrants and their subsequent accommodation.

Blockchain technology, too, has entered the domain of migration management. Three EU Member States currently use Blockchain Technology for crisis management and have seen drastic changes in the ease of managing issues that spring up at the last minute. One of the redeeming qualities of Blockchain technology is that it generates a data struc ture with inherent qualities in security and management. It is based on the principles of decentralisation, consensus, and cryptography, which enables high levels of trust in the system.

Migration-ridden European countries such as Lithuania and Hungary have also incorporated highly evolved technol ogies such as automated 3D facial recognition and iris veri fication to speed up refugee incorporation into the country. The Tilde Speech Recognition System in Latvia has been revolutionary in identifying the voice of the migrants and uploading them into the database for further verification

purposes. It is currently under expansion to include the lesser-known languages in Europe into its database for broader applications.

In many countries in the EU, Artificial Intelligence has been applied in migration crisis management and food insecurity. The healthcare meltdown due to the pandemic could potentially help other countries up grade their migration crisis management efforts.

Automated face verification has been one of the main fronts on which the Latvian government has been able to ramp up its operations in identity fraud detec tion. During the migration process, there are usually multiple cases of birth certificates being issued to for eign citizens without verified documents, using fake identities by utilising birth certificate copies. AI-enabled “chatbots” have been revolutionary in speeding up the integration of migrants, as they can simultaneously talk with customers on the migration crisis management portals. In Finland, the crisis management team utilises a “flow throughput estimator” backed by Artificial Intel ligence to identify various bottlenecks in the migration process and assess the complexity of each migrant as they enter the system. It also has built-in capabilities to estimate the cost of rehabilitating each case at the time of entry after analysing the information.

CHALLENGES AHEAD

When using AI to delve into personal records of in dividuals, whether migrants or otherwise, a real concern is individual privacy and bias based on human prejudice. With tech giants eyeing the automation immigration organisations globally as lucrative big buck contracts, there is a push to set aside the genuine and perceived concerns of migrants and experts in this regard. After all, Big Tech does not want privacy activists to queer the pitch for big-ticket projects. Obviously, there is a great deal of money to be made in the business of migrants.

Although all EU Member States are bound by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union, gross violations of these agreements are not uncom mon. Countries increasingly relying on these emerging technologies run the risk of migrant privacy intrusions and accusations of unfairness and poor algorithmic ac countability.

It has been reported that while designing and testing the tools that drive AI, migrants are often portrayed as security threats rather than as human beings with ba sic fundamental liberties and rights. Critics of the AI universe accuse governments and Big Tech of intrud ing into the private data of individual migrants taking advantage of lax regulations. Worse is feared, with the next step being remote tracking of migrants to control, deflect or block their flow. This is possible once govern ments create a narrative that establishes linkages be tween mass migration flows and national security.

No technology is perfect yet. The error made in some cases could harm the lives of millions, as seen in

the case of UNHCR’s biometric recognition technology. The technology has an error rate of about 2-3 per cent, which could, in turn, affect a significant proportion of the migrant population.

COUNTER VIEW

Climate change, internal conflicts, food shortages and general mismanagement, even in countries well endowed with natural resources, are producing a rising tide of illegal migrants. These asylum seekers are des perately trying to knock down the gates of the prosper ous U.S. through Mexico and the European mainland from North Africa. No country, however sympathetic to the plight of the refugees or prosperous enough to absorb their shock, can permit an unchecked influx of hordes into their society and economic infrastructure.

Over the last decade, we have observed how the ill-managed migration of refugees from entirely differ ent social and cultural backgrounds has muddled the social scene in many well-managed European countries. Scenes of migrants battling police on the streets and in dulging in arson and destruction have made such coun tries regret their generosity. AI and associated technol ogies will give such sympathetic hosts confidence that they know whom they invite as future citizens into their well-ordered societies and keep out malcontents and potential troublemakers.

The COVID-19 pandemic was an eye-opener for mankind and a catalyst for mass digitisation. Look at the Unified Payment Interface (UPI) growth in India, which has changed the face of money transactions. To day, even a street hawker can instantly receive or send money at the touch of a button, making the physical ex change of cash outmoded. Such emerging technologies continue to have the potential to transform not just the migration landscape but the way we traverse the globe.

Assessment

The inexorable march of technology cannot be stopped. What needs to be done is to temper it with regulations and monitoring protocols that mitigate their misuse, if not prevent it. Regulations being evolved for their management must be created through public debate and discussion. The common citizen, technical experts, privacy rights advocates, legal luminaries and tech companies must all be represented.

The fear is that with the richer countries racing ahead to adopt such technologies in the migration sphere, it could potentially deepen the digital and AI divide between the Global North and South. Technology in the hands of the rich and powerful should not become a weapon to discriminate against the poor and helpless.

JUDICIARY: A BALM FOR DEMOCRACY?

By taking on the all-powerful Najib Razak and his constituency, is the judiciary in corruption-plagued Malaysia trying to send a strong message of revisionism?

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M alaysia’s history has been a complex, con tinuous struggle involving imperial rule, a brutal invasion during World War II fol lowed by a wave of nationalism and constant riots. The period following involved an emergency rule for 12 years from 1948 to 1960, which led to the forma tion of the Federation of Malaysia in 1963. Two years later, Singapore was separated from the Federation, and a confrontation with Indonesia ensued. Race ri ots in 1969 resulted in an emergency once more.

This tumultuous history has given rise to a strange mix of democracy and authoritarianism in the country, where by people occupying high political offices remain unques tioned. This immunity was surprisingly called into question when Prime Minister Najib Razak was convicted of misap propriating RM 2.67 billion from 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) at the end of August.

RESUSCITATING FAITH

The former PM’s conviction on corruption, money laun dering and abuses of power charges revived faith in the ju diciary and other democratic institutions.More importantly, it can act as a positive example for the rest of the region in a geographical area dominated by autocratic regimes.Sadly, judicial systems in Southeast Asia have failed to keep pace with the scale of economic progress in the region and are of ten party to the corrupt political backdrop. In Malaysia, po litical interference has in the past compromised the courts’

The judiciary plays a pivotal role in maintaining a semblance of democratic order, especially in volatile environments. While the autonomy of legal institutions is put to a severe test, any effort by them to retain some degree of independence and freedom has significant implications for the health of democracy.

reputation.

The clarity of the latest verdict against Najib has been widely welcomed as a sign of independent and robust judi cial powers.“Najib’s conviction signals, I hope, a return to form for the Malaysian judiciary, which had fallen from its heights of independence,” said Sam Zarifi, secretary-general of the International Commission of Jurists.

AUTHORITARIANISM VS JUDICIARY

The judiciary plays a pivotal role in maintaining a sem blance of democratic order, especially in volatile environ ments. While the autonomy of legal institutions is put to a severe test, any effort by them to retain some degree of inde pendence and freedom has significant implications for the health of democracy. A political attack on justice is a central moment in democratic erosion. This is not a phenomenon unique to Malaysia or even the South Asian region. There are cases of autocratisation in Latin America and the Euro pean Union, too, where the capture of justice has played out as the decisive and often irreversible moment in the slide

towards authoritarian rule. In some instances, reversing some democracies to an authoritarian system requires, as a precondition, the judiciary’s capture by the execu tive branch.

A distinction is made between authoritarian and totalitarian regimes wherein the latter does not leave any place for an independent judiciary, such as Stalin’s regime in the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany. Authori tarian regimes, such as the Spanish Franco regime, of ten allow for limited pluralism whereby judges can act independently, but their powers are restricted in polit ically sensitive cases. The degree of independence of a judiciary depends on the level of competition between parties in a democratic set-up. As long as there is a plu rality of parties, there is likely to be a strong case for an independent judiciary which can act on behalf of any aggrieved party and maintain the rule of law.

Maintaining an impartial and effective judicial sys tem is expensive, as many developing and middle-econ omy countries have realised their cost. An independent judiciary’s efficacy is subject to the level of economic development, the status of the court, the relation of the judiciary to other political organs and the competence and integrity of judges. Heaping socio-economic cases on a judiciary ill-equipped to address these only under mine confidence in the judiciary.

THE CHINESE MODEL

Even authoritarian regimes need an independent ju diciary to maintain social order and facilitate economic growth. In China, the courts reportedly handle over 8 million cases annually, stipulating a probe into what is working well under the current regime. China has ad opted several regulatory innovations, some of which have been severely criticised. These include individual case supervision, adjudicative committees, an extensive incentive structure for judges, and, finally, the role of Party organs in the court system. China has attracted foreign capital by focusing on reforms to promote judi cial efficiency, legal predictability, and legal consistency in the economic sector.

There are no easy answers to ensure ‘meaningful’ ju dicial independence in China. Thus far, there has been limited progress in creating a qualified and authorita tive judiciary that can address a wide range of cases in

dependently and competently. In addition, as with oth er authoritarian regimes, the judiciary is likely to face limits to its independence, especially in political cases which challenge the ruling regime.

THE CASE FOR WOMEN IN JUDICIARY?

Malaysia’s resounding verdict on the ex-PM was dealt out by Chief Justice Tun Tengku Maimun Tuan Mat, a woman who remained stoic in the face of a pow erful politician. Is there, therefore, a case for more women on judicial benches? Evidence from across the world seems to suggest so. In the U.S. judiciary, women form a growing component, although there has been criticism for under-representation in decision-making positions despite increased engagement in public life. This is especially the case in senior judicial leadership positions, which continue to house only a small number of women. The Global Judicial Integrity Network has made a strong case for the representation of women in the judiciary of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The network brings together female judges to learn from each other’s lived experiences and provide a source of solidarity.

An adequate representation of women in the judicia ry is significant for many reasons. Aside from providing an equitable share to all segments of society from a rep resentative perspective, it inspires the next generation of female judges. Historically, equality in the judiciary has been uneven. Still, steps have been taken, albeit no tional, such as marking March 10th as the International Day of Women Judges by the United Nations General Assembly Resolution. This is more specifically the case in African and Arab judiciaries, where the significant imbalance present for decades appears to be correct ed. According to UN Women statistics, the number of women working in these regions has risen significantly as per progress made on the Beijing Declaration. These are particularly important at many levels as it includes women in the highest courts where top decisions are made.

Assessment

An independent judiciary plays a critical role in maintaining the rule of law and keeping the spirit of democracy alive. There is a strong link between the nature of the political system and the judiciary’s role therein. Supporters of democracy across the globe will draw strength from the Malaysian experience.

The fact that a woman judge delivered this landmark judgment has given a new meaning to the ongoing campaign for gender equality in such high offices. While the UN has been pushing women’s representation in all aspects of governance in Africa and the Arab world, a lot remains to be fulfilled as the gap between genders is too vast. Even in the paragon of democracy, the U.S, a woman’s inclusion in the apex court draws much controversy, as was seen last year when President Biden nominated a woman, and that too a black one, to the highest court.

In

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Tokyo has offered an investment bonanza to Africa.

In a world suffering under the shadow of war in Europe with rising energy costs and crippling food shortages, a bold and ambitious proclama tion made by Japan must have sounded like music to the ears of African leaders.

In the recent Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) held in Tunisia, Japan committed $ 30 billion in economic assistance to be spent over the next three years.

While Japan has a long and fruitful relationship with Africa, astute observers see a deeper intent. As the historic rivalry between the two Asian titans-China and Japan- in tensifies in the Indo-Pacific, geopolitical compulsions en courage Tokyo to ramp up its stakes in Africa, which many project as the next big global market.

Apparently, Japan wishes to counterbalance the rising economic and political clout of Beijing in Africa. The fact that Moscow and Beijing seem to coalesce as an axis after the Ukraine war could be a catalyst for the fresh Japanese initiative.

A HISTORICAL CONTEXT

In a research paper published by the Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, on Strategies of China and Japan’s Rivalry in Africa, it is argued that while Africa has been an arena of global power politics for over three centuries, the Chinese and the Japanese are relatively new players.

As the historic rivalry between the two Asian economic titans-China and Japan- intensifies in the Indo-Pacific, geopolitical compulsions encourage Tokyo to ramp up its stakes in Africa, which many project as the next big global market.

The first period which lasted for over 400 years, saw Eu ropean powers ravaging the ‘Dark Continent’ for its slave trade. The second period was after World War when one by one, the European colonial powers were banished from the continent, and their place was taken, albeit in a more proxy manner, by the U.S. and the USSR as they carried their war into the continent. During this period, both China and Japan made their entrance, largely due to their booming commer cial interests and humanitarian aid to their client states. The third (and current phase) commenced from the end of the Cold War, and while it saw newer entrants like India, South Korea and South American nations like Brazil, the greatest influence was exerted by China and Japan.

During the Cold War, China and Japan positioned them selves behind the opposing superpowers, but these dynam ics changed after the Cold War; they have since competed directly in the so-called ‘the Second Scramble for Africa’.

China has never forgotten or forgiven Imperial Japan for its excesses in its puppet state of Manchukuo from 1934 till the end of World War II. Since then Sino Japanese rivalries have simmered, despite their booming trade, around mar itime disputes over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Seas. Since 2014, both Asian powerhouses have carried their rivalry into the African continent.

ASIAN RIVALRY IN AFRICA

Japanese are no novices in the African market. Al most a thousand Japanese companies have been oper ating in the continent for some years now, and the cur rent push is in line with long-term Japanese goals for Africa. In fact, the Japanese mega-corporation Mitsub ishi has investments in Africa that can be traced back to 1926. Even the Japan and African Development Bank have been doling out loans to African countries for al most a century now.

During the decade between 2005-2014, Japan in vested over $3 billion in agriculture, water, health and infrastructure. Some big-ticket projects included hy droelectric plants in Uganda and Madagascar, express ways in Nigeria and gas-fired power plants in Ghana.

The Sino-Nippon rivalry in Africa predates the Cold War, in fact. Chinese records show the trade with Africa during the Tang dynasty, while more precise Japanese records show the earliest contacts started in 1650.

However, as their economies grew during the postWorld War II boom, both started taking a greater in terest in the markets and resources of Africa. Both na tions were prominent at the 1955 Bandung Conference, where they sought the support of the newly indepen dent nations of Asia and Africa to “engender collabora tion among Asian and African nations on scientific and economic development.”

China actively supported the anti-colonial struggle in Africa with financial and military aid in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Angola. It became a major aid donor to Libya, Egypt, Sudan, and Tunisia.

A sentiment widely shared in African countries is that, whatever be the pitfalls of a Chinese Debt trap, the Chinese have never patronised their African client state and do not project their economic assistance as hand outs but as a means of testing the waters for furthering their influence. After all, the African group of countries comprise the largest single bloc of voters in major mul tilateral organisations like the UN general assembly.

Pacifist Japan, having aligned to the capitalist bloc, played no part in the freedom struggle of nascent Afri can republics, so it lost out to China in the initial stages. Belatedly, it tried to close the gap with its massive in vestment resources, which it used to influence political leaders across Africa.

As per the African Centre for Strategic Studies, the Japanese-Africa trade at about $24 billion a year is far outstripped by that of China at $254 billion last year.

GEOPOLITICAL COMPULSIONS

An unwell Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishi da was unable to attend the TICAD but addressed the African leaders via a video link. He assured the African leaders that “Japan intends to use its wealth to invest in Africa’s human capital and foster high-quality and

sustainable development across the continent.” How ever, the timing of the TICAD and the fact that its lo cation was shifted from Tokyo to an African locale was significant; Japan is keen to push back against growing Sino-Russian influence in the continent. Last year, Bei jing promised a $40 billion financial bonanza to the continent. Similarly, the Japanese are wary of President Putin courting India and many African countries with attractive financial deals to garner their support for its Ukrainian invasion.

Just like the U.S., India and many EU countries, Ja pan too has been spreading the word about the pitfalls of Chinese investments. Sri Lanka’s economic collapse presents a clear example; although the Chinese claim that they are being unfairly targeted despite their share of the Sri Lankan debt being a mere 10 per cent in or der to drive a wedge between them and their African partners.

China’s rivals are quick to counter Chinese denials by pointing out the strategic nature of assets acquired by Chinese companies once the client nation defaults on interest payments. It is a fact that China invests without delay in mega infrastructure projects like ports, strategic airfields, railways, expressways and bridges. The strategic Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka is the per fect example of the ‘Chinese land grab’ technique, as per the critics.

China has proactively gained control over rare earth minerals being mined in the Republic of Congo and oth er countries through years of well-planned investments. Now it holds the monopoly in the supply chain of these rare earths, thus gaining a strategic edge over its rivals like the U.S. and Japan.

Japan would like to forge together a broad-based co alition of like-minded nations, including India, to con test Chinese hegemony over the resources of Africa and create conditions for free and open trading under a rulebased international order. However, a resurgent China may not be so easily deflected from its goals.

Assessment

Geopolitical machinations notwithstanding, economically, many African nations have only gained from these infrastructure projects, leading to higher growth and better living conditions for their citizens.

As regards accusations of the ‘Chinese Debt Trap’, the jury is still out whether these are true or not.

For Japan, it is a case of ‘too little and too late’. While it may be still trying, the race seems to have been won by China. The declining Japanese economy, its ageing population and a huge national debt leave little surplus money for the Japanese government to splurge in Africa in a competition that is clearly onesided. At best, Japan can only hope to consolidate its remaining influence in Africa and not cede it to China.