First identified in 1958 in a batch of experimental monkeys in Denmark, this close relative of the deadly smallpox virus, recorded its first zoonotic infection in 1970 in Congo.
INDIACHINESETHROUGHEYESPage-07 OVER,FINALLY!GAMEPage-22 THE PICASSO OF PageAI - 16 ECONOMICWARFARE!Page-23 A BEACON OF PageHOPE-46 EXCLUSIVES
ENDEMIC TO PANDEMIC ?
To sambratha@synergiagroup.insubscribe,; +91 80 4197 1000 https://www.synergiafoundation.org/ INSIGHTS is a strategic affairs, foreign policy, science and technology magazine that provides nonpartisan analysis of contemporary issues based on real-time information.
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The recent inclusion of China in NATO’s Strategic Assessment 2022 as a potential adversary has created ripples which will have far-reaching implications. We analyse this new development along with insights emanating from Mr Shyam Saran’s pathbreaking book ‘China’s View of the World and India.’
Dear
We continue with our oversight of the conflict in Ukraine, especially the ongoing ‘economic warfare’ to diminish Russian capability to fight wars. In the same vein, we try to look deeper into what makes President Putin the type of leader that is able to single-handedly take on the west. The economic fallout of the war is too painful to ignore, and we have tried to analyse a long list of nations threatened with a collapse akin to Sri Lanka. In our technology segment, we provide insights on Artificial Intelligence in the art world and have a brace of Indian experts analysing the ‘Tech Game.’
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This month’s lead story provides an in-depth analysis of the monkeypox , recently declared as a ‘public health emergency of international concern by the WHO .This implies that the outbreak merits a coordinated global response to prevent its escalation into a full blown pandemic.
As part of our ongoing diplomat series, we share insights from HE Cameron MacKay, the Canadian High Commissioner to India, on what Canada offers to Indian investors and students and how it can participate in our growing start-up ecosystem. Mr Bill Emmott has contributed a piece on Italy’s political predicament, and Mr Chas Bountras writes on Innovation. We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.
HOPE President Draupadi Murmu’s election as India’s 15th constitutional head is hopefully a goldTheGHANA’SAFRICArecognitionGAMEOFGOLDsupposedlysmall-scalemininghasalarge-scaleenvironmentalfootprintPAGE51
“A big gaping hole in our free trade network is India,”-HE Mr Cameron MacKay, High Commissioner of Canada PAGE38
REJIGGINGGEOPOLITICSCAPITALISM?
RAINBOWGEOPOLITICSNATIONNO MORE!!!!!
NURTURING A START-UP ECOSYSTEM
PAGE32DIPLOMAT SERIES
BRACINGENVIRONMENTUPTOCLIMATE TECH TFROM FLOODS TO EARTHQUAKES TO PANDEMICS, INDIA IS AT THE EYE OF THE CLIMATEPAGESTORM48
Capitalism, the dominant economic system, sorely needs a de novo approach to overcome significant glitches in its manifestation.
EXCLUSIVES HEALTH CARE ENDEMIC TO PANDEMIC ? Having been declared an ‘international health emergency,’ Monkeypox is threatening to become yet another ‘Black Swan’ event PAGE 3 GAMEGEOPOLITICSOVER,FINALLY! Curtains came down on the extended political drama in 10 Downing Street leaving Great Britain much embarrassed. PAGE 11 NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH INDIA CHINESETHROUGHEYES Deeper understanding of relations.India-China PAGE GEOPOLITICS7ANINTRACTABLE BORDER DISPUTE PAGE TECHNOLOGY14 THE PICASSO OF AI In an increasingly digitised world, DALL.E 2.0 challenges the limits of creativity in fine arts. GENERALPAGE16 AIRPORTDEEPERPARALYSIS-AMALAISE? An unprecedented labour crisis at British airports is symptomatic of what ailsPAGEBREXIT18 GEOPOLITICS BEIJING Europe,AmidstWATCH?UNDERanongoingwarinNATOcategorisedChinaasapotential adversary, a first in its seven ECONOMICPAGE20historydecades-longECONOMICSWARFARE! The use of finance as a tool to limit Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is indeed a powerful strategy proving that economics has come to the forefront of warPAGE23strategies. NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH SRI LANKA IS NOT ALONE! The list of countries teetering on the edge of an economic abyss is growing as the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine spread around the globe PAGE 25
GEOPOLITICSPAGE29 THE CHINESEPAGEWORLDVIEW35INDIAABEACONOF
Once seen as an oasis of hope for the ‘dark continent’, the Republic of South Africa threatens to degenerate into anarchy with migrants no longer welcome or safe PAGE 42
HEALTH CARE PERILS OF IMMUNOLOGICALLYTHENAÏVEBIOWARFAREOWESITROOTSTOANCIENTTIMESWHENTHEVIRUSWASUSEDASAWEAPONOFWARTOKILLMILLIONS.PAGE44
TECHNOLOGY THE GREAT TECH GAME As a successor to the Industrial Revolution, technology is transforming human society like nothing before.
Contrary to the general assumption, the spread of the monkeypox virus is not just confined to close infection but can also spread through droplet infection. The United Nations has said that the current monkeypox outbreak is highly unusual and that cases are being seen in so many dif As the old age adage goes, ‘precaution is better than cure’ - masking, social distancing, use of hand sanitiser and frequent hand washing with soap may help curtail the spread of the disease. Apart from this, two vaccines have also been made available by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for possibly preventing monkeypox infection- JYNNEOS (also known as Imvanex) and ACAM2000.
ENDEMIC TO PANDEMIC ?
Having been declared an ‘international health emergency’, Monkey Pox is threatening to become yet another ‘Black Swan’ event. Dr. Gifty Immanuel MD, PhD is the Medical Director at Synergia Foundation.
F irst discovered over half a century ago, the world largely overlooked the recent emer gence of the monkeypox virus. However, rising cases around the globe are a matter of concern for people and economies still recovering from the blow of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sambratha Shetty is the Chief Operating Officer at Synergia Biosciences
The monkeypox virus was first identified in a colony of monkeys kept for research in Denmark in 1958. It is thought to be a close relative of a disease that wiped out millionsthe deadly smallpox virus thought to have been successfully eradicated from the face of the world. Although it might be challenging to pinpoint the origin of the monkeypox virus, wild, free-ranging animals such as rodents and other non-human primates could be the pri mary transmitters. The early symptoms of Monkeypox may be mistaken for the flu – fever, headache, fatigue, enlarged lymph nodes – which is often succeeded by a rash, usually first appearing on the face and then spreads to other parts of the body. However, some recent cases have begun with a rash near the genital area, sparking accusations regarding the role of recreational activities among specific communi ties in its spread. The condition worsens to form pustules that appear all over the body and can stay for up to 3 weeks to a month, after which they form scabs and fall off. The person is no longer considered infectious once the scabs fall off. There are two main clades of the monkeypox virus in circulation – the west African clade and the central African (Congo Basin) clade.
THE ORIGIN & SPREAD
04ENDEMIC TO PANDEMIC ?
D r ISHWAR GILADA President of AIDS Society of India (ASI), Secretary General of Peoples Health Organisation-India(PHO). Dr. Gilada is a globally acclaimed HIV expert, credited with bringing India on the AIDS control map of the world.
Dr GIFTY IMMANUEL is a world-acclaimed virologist and the Director of the Centre for AIDS and Antiviral Research. He is also the Medical Director Synergia Foundation. EXPERT INSIGHT
The current mortality rate of 3-6 per cent is not accurate and needs to be interpolated with current scenarios taken into account. There is also the need for a vaccine/intranasal treatment for Monkeypox. He believes that infection from an allied poxvirus can also provide protection to some extent. Although it is not corollary to corona, precautions taken for corona are good enough for protection against Monkeypox among the general public.
Zoonotic viral diseases belonging to the category of orthopox viruses, which includes - Rabbitpox, Squirrelpox, Cowpox, Horsepox, Alaskapox etc. - total 11 of them - have been in existence for long. There are two clades of the monkeypox virus that have been discovered – the West African and the Congo Basin. Although, the disease was usually endemic to Africa, infections in the current outbreak which has spread to Europe and other parts of the world currently, in over 80 countries with over 20000 infections, possibly belong to the less fatal West African strain. Dr. Ishwar Gilada believes that this could be a altogether a new strain. Moreover there is no connection with endemic Monkeypox cases. And the Monkeypox is no more transmitted from Monkeys. It is from human to humanSo,transmission.thename–monkeypox- stands to be reconsidered and nomenclature should change to *Humanpox*. According to Dr Gilada, the cases in circulation at the moment are mainly seen in the category of sexually active persons, especially those with multiple sexual partners, between the ages of 20-45 years. With the smallpox vaccine being discontinued in 1980, there seems to be immunity against Monkeypox among people above 45 years as the smallpox vaccine provides immunity to monkeypox, to a great extent. Around 45% of the monkeypox cases in the UK consisted of people who had tested positive for HIV in the past. In India, as with any emerging disease, there seems to be stigma surrounding the virus. Since the virus can transfer through human-to-human contact, the name monkeypox needs to be re- evaluated. The existing stigma surrounding STDs needs to be taken into account as it is similar to the HIV transmission in the beginning, except that in monkeypox the patients are recovered within 4 weeks and reinfection is not possible. A large proportion - ~98% - of monkeypox cases have been reported from the MSM communities, thus adding to the stigma surrounding STDs; which can be mitigated through conscious messaging and stigma and discrimination prevention in place.
ferent countries, especially in Europe, which could suggest that it may have been silently spreading for some time. The recent multiple outbreaks of the monkeypox virus over Eu rope can be attributed to the immunological naivety of the European continent as opposed to the herd immunity that prevails within the African population with chronic low-lev el exposure. Dr Gifty Immanuel, Director of Medical Divi sion Synergia Foundation, believes that although the virus’s mortality rate is around 3-6 per cent, this figure needs to be extrapolated to accommodate the global stronghold of the virus; the figures are usually much higher than reported. Lifestyle differences which may cause an enhanced close in teraction, could also explain the severity of cases in Europe.
The monkeypox virus is also less likely to have been a direct consequence of global warming as most climate change-induced diseases need an intermediate vector for transmission. The virus must have primarily emerged due to increased interaction of humans with wild animals
The monkeypox virus, which had its origins in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is not spread just through close infection but also through droplet infection, which is airborne. Areas with low-level herd immunity are at more risk of the new virus; the immunologically naïve European countries could be more at risk.
The outbreak is also being attributed to a wide range of reasons, one of the main ones being an increased animal-hu man interaction. Since the 1980s, there have been signifi cant anthropomorphic and demographic changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has seen some of the highest case rates. Due to rainforest logging, there has been a higher risk of zoonotic transmission of the monkeypox vi rus (MPXV). In addition, consumption of bush meat in var ious Sub-African countries and human influx and migration, aggravated by war, civil unrest and poverty, force people to seek shelter within forests and enhance the chances of hu man-animal interaction. With an extension of transmission chains and an increase in the number of primary introduc tions, the monkeypox virus with an R0 near one has the po tential to evolve towards greater transmissibility.
Several European countries have published full-length or partial genome sequences of the monkeypox virus from the ongoing outbreak. Data from the polymerase-chain re actions suggest that the monkeypox gene detected belongs to the West African clade. Although it is yet to be seen if a vaccine solely for Monkeypox emerges, the smallpox vac cine is also effective in treating against monkeypox virus. Other drugs such as Cidofovir and Brinsidofovir developed by Pfizer and companies like Gillead Sciences Inc. have been influential in the treatment of Monkeypox. If neglected, the condition could worsen and cause diseases such as sepsis, encephalitis, and an infection in the cornea that could ulti
Although there seems to be a lot of panic among the general public with the emergence of a new virus, the chances of the monekypox virus turning into a pandemic is low. This is mainly because it is not an RNA virus like the Coronavirus, which is DNA-based. The Pasteur Institute’s preliminary mathematical models are predicting that it will not expand beyond a certain permissible level. What matters most is that there is synergy among a range of disciplines so that people can work together to help solve problems faster. The virus is mutating faster, as with what we saw with the coronavirus too. We must understand that the virus does not want to kill people but it wants to survive more. There needs to be a shift away from hospital and medicine- based treatment to a more community-driven, nature- based treatment for people. We must also be wary of the effects of global warming and emerging diseases and must understand the importance of taking care of the environment for our Health.
Although both the viruses belong to the same family, the monkeypox virus is seen as a much milder counterpart. While the exact origin of smallpox is unknown, findings of smallpox-like rashes on mummified Egyptian rulers sug gest its existence up to 3000 years ago. The cessation of the smallpox vaccine in the 1980s could also be a potential cause, owing to waning immunity against smallpox and oth er orthopox viruses. This assumption was further strength ened when it was seen that after the significant rollout of the smallpox vaccine in 1980, more people had become sus ceptible to the monkeypox virus. Since the major outbreak in the 1980s in the Democratic Republic of Congo and other African nations, some nations have kept stockpiles of smallpox vaccines owing to con cerns about the virus’ utilisation as a bio-weapon. One of the significant connections between the deadlier smallpox virus and its kin, the monkeypox virus, is that the smallpox vaccine can provide up to 85 per cent protection from mon keypox infections or, at the very least, reduce the severity of the affected cases.
MASK UP, AGAIN!
05ENDEMIC TO PANDEMIC ?
MONKEYPOX VS SMALLPOX
Sounds familiar? Once again, contact tracing becomes important and ‘social distancing,’ a relatively new phenomenon becomes a buzzword! It does sound like most of the COVID – 19 protocols we have struggled with over the past two years are here to stay! Are we destined to stay indoors, away from the company of others and mask up some more? The implications for mental health covering stress, anxiety, depression, and insomnia have already been well documented in corona times. With this alarming ‘new normal’, the strain on our societies and implications for our social wellbeing is truly disturbing!
mately lead to blindness. The latter should not be used for people with compro mised immune systems or conditions such as eczema, der matitis, or pregnant individuals. As we gear up for yet healthcare scare, the verdict for socialising is clear – social distancing, masks and sanitisers are here to stay! In an unforeseen extreme, the WHO has pronounced that Monkeypox is a global health emergency. It has been described as a self-limited disease with symptoms lasting from 2 to 4 weeks. Disease transmission takes place from person to person by close contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets and contaminated materials such as bedding.
D r ANAVAJ SAKUNTABHAI Head of Infectious Disease Unit at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France. Dr Sakuntabhai is medical doctor, with PhD in human molecular genetics from the University of Oxford
THE CURE
EARLY PROGNOSIS Dr ARVIND KASTURI EXPERT INSIGHT
D r K. SRINATH REDDY President of the Public Health Foundation of India PHFI), former Head of Cardiology at All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) and has served on many WHO expert panels.
Governments and the healthcare sector must collaborate to devise a new vaccine/ Intra nasal spray to treat the rapidly spreading monkeypox virus.
The absence of mathematical models for the monkeypox virus remains one area that needs to be watched. A viral zoonosis like Monkeypox requires coordinated interventions from human and animal health sectors, where data sharing becomes essential within these sectors and the broader scientific community. Although there seems to be a widespread concern of Monkeypox turning into the next pandemic, the possibility of it being true is grim as effective medicines already exist.
Cross- immunity among the poxviridae family of viruses reduces the intensity of the affected monkeypox cases. The nature of antibody response needs to be studied further – people who are immunocompromised are more at risk. As of now, monkeypox cannot be transmitted through blood. In France, particularly in Paris, hundreds of centres for vaccination against monkeypox have been opened to boost accessibility.
06
Dr SRINI KAVERI is the Director of CNRS (French National Centre for Scientific Research),Embassy of France,New Delhi and Director Research, INSERM Sorbonne University, Paris EXPERT INSIGHT
The monkeypox virus is a zoonotic disease that is usually only spread between animals. Although the first human-to-human transmission was seen in 2017, of late, we have been seeing an increased transmission of the virus among humans. This could have possibly had its origins in imported animals from Ghana, such as prairie dogs which are frequent pets in the U.S. The difference in the current outbreak is that we are seeing a high number of cases in non-endemic countries; out of all the countries in which outbreaks are being reported, only 9 of them are endemic. The virus does not spread through aerosols but only through droplets which require prolonged, close proximity for transmission. Further, studies on the transmission of the virus through bodily fluids, especially blood, are being done, but it is highly possible as it is a double-stranded DNA virus. In many ways, the monkeypox outbreak must be treated like an Ebola/HIV -like virus instead of a Covid-like virus. Apart from the usual flu-like symptoms of the monkeypox virus, its characteristic symptoms include painful lymph node swelling and rashes on the palms and soles. A possible vaccine for monkeypox is relatively easier to develop as it is a DNA virus that rarely mutates. To date, the mutations in the monkeypox virus have not altered its nature. The importance of isolation cannot be emphasised enough, and proper care must be taken in discarding fomites. India must learn from its experiences with the HIV virus and must take prompt measures for proper risk communication and education.
ENDEMIC TO PANDEMIC
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STD Specialist, President of the AIDS Society of India, St. Johns National Academy of Health Sciences, Department of community health
Monkeypox is not a viral disease that is sexually transmitted and contraceptive measures cannot prevent it. Most of the Indian population has a certain amount of immunity conferred to them through the smallpox vaccine which was rolled out in India extensively.
As with HIV, the monkeypox virus started from animalanimal transmission but then, over time, it spread to humans. The stigma around the virus, as was in the case of HIV, similar to any new virus that comes up, needs to be addressed. As per the current scenario, the only treatment available is symptomatic treatment or painkillers. Though the virus is accompanied by extreme body pain, in-depth blood studies are yet to be made to know more about the monkeypox infections that are increasingly being spotted all over the globe.Oneof the only good parts about this infection is that it is self-limiting, mostly affecting the patient for up to 21 days and re-infection is highly unlikely due to cross-immunity from all the pox viruses. All the treatments available for monkeypox at the moment do not provide a hundred per cent protection from the virus and need to be studied further.
though China is such an important country, the general lack of awareness and familiarity with it amongst educated Indians is appalling. The absence of the desire to learn about this vast and powerful country is even more dis mal. Sadly, the same apathy extends to our other neighbours in Southeast Asia, even if India has historically enjoyed strong connections with some of them. An average Indian knows more about the United States of America and Europe than about Indonesia or Malaysia. This is odd for a coun try that has through its history been open to the rest of the world, somehow seems to have adopted a rather insular out look towards its immediate and extended neighbourhood. In contrast, the Chinese study India much more closely. There are many think tanks designated as the leading cen tres for studying India. And several Chinese experts speak Indian languages, do a lot of research on India, and are very knowledgeable about India. There is much more focus on India than perhaps there is on our side.
Amid rising tensions within world powers, it becomes imperative to examine the similarities & differences between India & China to better understand their relation to each other in a larger geopolitical context. FOUNDATION
C hina and India have, over the centuries, ex isted geographically close to each other and have interacted with each other from time to time, maybe in a more sporadic fashion than in a continuous, unbroken way. Therefore, it is critical to examine this meeting on the high roads of inner Asia, between two ancient civilisations now heading for their rightful place on the high table of world powers.Even
The Chinese never considered India a threat per se but only a platform that the U.S. or its other enemies could use to harm China. After inflicting an unambiguous military defeat on India, China has depicted itself as a central, civilised, cultured centre, with concentric circles of lesser civilisations and cultures around it. India was once an alternate centre in the past but no longer. Even the border dispute with India is painted as India trying to be an imposter to Colonial Great Britain. Even Indian achievements in space, nuclear weapons etc., are brushed off as something that has been borrowed.
RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA
The narrative that China is putting forward today is a curated one. It is an interpretation of history which is not entirely what history was. With every change in dynasty, the new incumbent would rewrite the history of the preceding
INDIA CHINESETHROUGHEYES
CRAFTING A NARRATIVE
It is time to know more intimately a country with which India has had a long historical association, some pleasant, some not so pleasant, but which in times to come will have a bearing on India’s future.
08INDIA THROUGH
In the early part of Indian history, Sanskrit was the elite language no matter where you were located; in some king doms in South India, or in Java or Indonesia, Sanskrit was the same. Its stringent rules of pronunciation and rhythm were standard everywhere, making it understood almost ev erywhere. Sanskrit could be written in Brahmi, in Kurushpi, in Siddhi, in Devanagari- all scripts but still not the same which could be universally read and understood.
The visual culture is also very different. Calligraphy be came the highest form of art, and it got incorporated into CHINESE SHYAM SARAN
The Confucian ideal man, the Chinese Renaissance man, was a gentleman, a painter, a poet, a calligrapher and a political commentator, all rolled into one. These combina tions were rarer in Indian history. Take the art of painting, for example; it was a highly evolved art in China with many famous painters in ancient times. But in India, it was more artisanal for much of the time until the modern painters came. In the case of ancient Indian art, primarily the painter remains unknown because it was an artisanal pursuit.
INDIA AND CHINA India and China are both very hierarchical societies, but the way they approach the ordering of society is different. When considering Confucian ideals and emphasis on vir tues, where does one draw the distinctions between Indian and Chinese cultures? Much of the evolution of Chinese culture and civiliza tion is linked to its script. The language spoken in different parts of China may have been very different, for example, Cantonese is an entirely foreign language. China had tremendous diversity, in terms of spoken language. But the written language was the same; the script was the same and this gave a sense of unity that we do not have in India. It also gave China a vast, inexhaustible source of documented history, even if contrived in some ways. However, there’s still a massive amount of documen tary evidence that is missing in India.
EYES
Former Foreign Secretary ,GOI. He also served as India’s ambassador to Myanmar, Indonesia and Nepal and as its High Commissioner to Mauritius.
dynasty but, more importantly, give a glowing account of its period. Indeed, this trait is not confined to China as all countries, including India, like to tell stories about them selves, which are egotistical. However, in China, this cu rated narrative has become overpowering, with historical writing being turned into a legitimising process. There is an underlying political objective to show that the Chinese rise is something that was, in a sense, inevitable as a result of history. The century of humiliation that China suffered was nothing more than an aberration. Today, China is reach ing out to a position that has always been its right to which there is historically an unbroken line from one dynasty to the Historynext. points in a different direction. Like India, Chi na, too, has had its periods of tumult and fragmentation followed by bouts of consolidation. For nearly 50 per cent of its recorded history, China was under alien rule, which it now labels as indigenous people- Mongols and the Man chus who ethnically were not Chinese. The new narrative is bent on smoothening the jagged edges to show that it is a continuous evolution of Chinese culture from ancient times to the present. All the breaks, the periods of subjugation by alien tribes are conveniently glossed over, leaving behind an imagined, idealised form of China, with the Chinese Com munist Party (CCP) projecting itself as the new imperium. Some would say that India’s history is also being presented in a similar perfect idealised form. To deal with China, these dynamics must be under stood. Today in India, the focus on China is through the prism of security, defence or even politics, but the larg er context in which these dynamics play within China is lost. Chinese foreign policy cannot be understood unless its broader context is analysed. For one, China has a long record of written history. Still, there is a tendency to veer towards oral traditions- the tradition of ‘smriti’ or re membered traditions from generation to generation.
The current Chinese diatribe sharply contrasts the lau datory terms used by Chinese visitors to India in ancient times who were drawn by their search for Buddhist origins in India. During the first millennium, there was a different view of India. India was described as the western paradise, and there was even a certain reverence for India as an al ternate centre of very advanced civilisation and culture. In some sense even superior to China because Buddhism came fromOnIndia.theother hand, there is hardly any imprint of China on India; the current lack of curiosity about China is a lega cy of past centuries. While Indian monks travelled to China and translated Buddhist works and continuous history of mercantile exchanges existed, trade between the Malabar coast and the east coast of China flourished. But the contact was confined to a small group of traders and did not pene trate the society at large. When Buddhism died in India, the connections further reduced. China developed its Buddhist universe and philosophy based on the original scripts with a THE OPIUM WARS
09INDIA THROUGH CHINESE EYES their bit to a single piece of art while remaining strictly con fined to their field. In India, no self-respecting artist would allow somebody else to interfere with his painting!
very Chinese flavour. The Islamic invasions of India reduced interaction between China and India for the next seven to eightBuddhismcenturies.remains part and parcel of Chinese culture. To an extent, Chinese familiarity with India partly relates to their adoption of Buddhism. But the difference is that Bud dhism penetrated Chinese society, whereas what came from China to India did not penetrate our community.
THE BUDDHIST CONNECT SINO-INDO POWER DYNAMICS
The Chinese cannot comprehend how, immediately af ter it became independent on 15 August 1947, India retained an Englishman as its first Head of State. While Indians may regard it as a gesture of reconciliation and forgiveness, for the Chinese, it showed that India was not truly indepen dent. Post-independence, India continued with the admin istrative and military edifices created by the British Raj-the bureaucracy, judiciary, and military, all pointing to a lack of genuine Indianness and pride. This perhaps explains the contempt Mao and many Chinese in the policy-making cir cles displayed for India in their interactions and statements. China has a very disparaging view of Indian democracy, which they consider chaotic. In their view, India will never really amount to very much precisely because it has such a raucous kind of democracy, and there is no discipline.Amidst all these perceived and actual im pressions of India, there is some grudging ad miration, too- for India can hold its culture far more strongly than China. The Chinese admire the large number of Indians who prefer local dresses to western attire and the strength of Indian classical music when faced with west ern alternates. The Chinese fail to understand this cultural integrity when they, despite being such an ancient culture, somehow don’t seem to be able to hold on to it. China was much less exposed to foreign languages, namely English, French, or Ger man. Whatever they picked from the West was translated into the local script. The Indian The British-imposed opium wars in the 19th century was one of the lowest points in the century of humiliation that the Chinese lament even today. Since Indian soldiers did most of the fighting during this conflict as the stormtroop ers of the British, the encounter was not pleasant for the Chinese. They blame Indians for acting as instruments of oppression. Indians were used as policemen to impose law and order in Shanghai and other west ern-controlled quarters, an image that reinforced the notion of the lackey of the Manyoppressors.Indians became very rich through the opium trade and thus gained notoriety in Chinese society. The belief in China was that India became a slave nation because it allowed itself to be come one, a future that China should not permit. This negative example has con tinued to influence current impressions of India. What is being forgotten in this narrative is that cumulatively, the Chi nese have a much more extended period of foreign domination/ occupation.
The Chinese tend to compartmentalize India and reduce it to less than the sum of its parts - for example, the Bangla language is shown as of Bangladesh, and Urdu belongs to Pakistan. These are small and subtle hints but add to the larger Chinese narrative to marginalise India as just another minor, inconsequential power in its periphery, much lower in the pecking order, although aspiring and acting as if it is of a higher rank. In foreign policy relationships, India should not expect to be treated as an equal by China; China is a votary of the patron-client type of relationship and does not recognise multipolarity, which it calls a recipe for disaster. In a sense, they too suffer from something like American exception alism. Then there is something called ‘Manifest Destiny’“China is a large country and its neighbours are just small countries, and that’s just a fact.”
In a surprising turn of events, thanks to the Ukrainian war, India and China had a similar geopolitical stance for a change. We can assume that there may have been some sur prises in Beijing discovering that India had an independent foreign policy.
DYNAMATIC TECHNOLOGIES AUTOMOTIVEAEROSPACEHYDRAULICSLIMITED & METALLURGY MEDICAL
While the ‘party gate’ dogged him for more than six months, it was the allegation of sexual misconduct levelled against a senior member of his party (whom he tried to pro tect) that finally ended his tenure, despite his famous ability to not let scandals stick to him.
When Prime Minister Cameroon resigned after the vic tory of the ‘leave’ vote, it was expected that Boris Johnson would step into his shoes. But internal politics of the Tory party denied him the prime minister’s chair, and he had to wait for another four years. Theresa May, the new Prime Minister, made him her Foreign Secretary. As May struggled with the contradictions involved with BREXIT, Mr Johnson represented the ‘hard’ lobby that demanded making no concessions for the EU
F aced with a storm of demands for his resig nation, Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced it with his characteristic aplomb, optimistic till the end that this time too, he would be able to ride it out. But it was not to be so; the death knell of his administration was sounded when his two principal ministers,MrRishi
Sunak, the Finance Secretary and Mr Sajid Javid, his Health Secretary, both threw in the towel. This triggered an avalanche of resignations which included secretaries, assistants, and political appointees. Left alone, Mr Johnson was left with no choice but to follow suit.
A TUMULTUOUS TENURE
Curtains came down on the extended political drama in 10 Downing Street, leaving Great Britain much embarrassed. RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA FOUNDATION
The last three years have been eventful, with Mr Johnson occupying centre stage. After a shaky and confusing beginning, BREXIT was finally settled. Caught on the wrong foot by the pandemic, he, along with his team of competent ministers, was able to turn the tide and implement a successful vaccine rollout in record time.
GAME OVER, FINALLY!
Mr Boris Johnson was a maverick by all descriptions, down to his rumpled blonde hair, making him look like a mischievous schoolboy. Alumina of Eton and Oxford Col lege, he started his career as a journalist, working for such famous newspapers as The Times, the Daily Telegraph, and The Spectator (whose editor he was till 2005). So, he knew the fickle nature of modern media that could be manipulat ed as it could never remain focused on the same story for too Helong.began his political career by becoming an MP in 2001. However, he joined the major league when he successful ly contested the elections for London mayorship twice, in 2008 and 2012. Setting his aim higher, he got re-elected to the parliament in 2015 and became a prominent advocate of BREXIT during the 2016 referendum.
while wresting back British autonomy. Later accusing May of ‘being too soft’, he resigned along with other prominent members of May’s cabinet, which finally led to the collapse of the May government in 2019, opening the path for John son to the premiership of the UK. Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Mr Johnson has stood firm with America and Ukraine in trying to stop Rus sian aggression in eastern Europe.
JOHNSON’S LEGACY
Stock prices are good indicators of a nation’s mood. Upon his resignation, the sterling and stocks jumped, showing a belief that Mr Johnson’s exit would bring the prolonged political instability to an end. Mr Johnson’s successor will have his plate full, with the economic blowback of the Ukraine war still gathering momentum and a fractured global geopolitical equilibrium threatening a fresh round of Cold War.
Assessment Mr Johnson became a victim of his frequent dallying with the irrational-hosting after office parties in his official residence when the entire nation was on lockdown and supporting a party colleague deeply compromised on sex charges that were hard to defend. He lived dangerously politically and ultimately paid the price.
Britain is poised at a delicate moment in its history; it has to transit into a net-zero emission economy, secure its position in a world dominated by the U.S., China and Russia and handle a dire economic situation at home. Great Britain is far from ‘great’, with a ballooning account deficit, falling sterling and rising debt-interest costs.
From the time of Johnson’s induction into office, both mor alists and Cold-War enthusiasts urged him to abandon the Golden Age of UK-China relations for a stance that was more contestable. His successor will have to realign British foreign policy to deal with a China that becomes even more threatening once Russian power has been diminished after its Ukrainian misadventure. The new Head of UK Parliament will be tasked with a bumpy ride of dealing with Johnson’s decision to change courses on his plans to grapple with the international trade community and the rising housing crisis at home. Mr Boris Johnson did indeed “get Brexit done”, but the Eu ropean issue still needs to be solved. None of his prede cessors could follow through like him, and although Europe and Brexit helped his case, Mr Boris Johnson’s resignation leaves a lot of loose ends that will continue to plague aging Great Britain for a long time.
Northern Ireland is another intractable problem made even more contentious after BREXIT. The incoming Prime Min ister will have to recognise it as a wound that needs to be tended to immediately. Regarding the EU at large, there seems to be a mix of bewilderment and Schadenfreude. Mr Johnson was a huge supporter of a hard stand in Ukraine to block any further gains for Russia in eastern Europe. His belligerence will be missed by UK’s allies, especially the U.S. It is still to be seen if the newly elected Prime Minister is going to be as enthusiastic as Mr Boris Johnson on the issue of the Ukraine conflict.
Mr. Boris Johnson enjoyed much less support from his fellow office-bearers and party members than traditionally enjoyed by his predecessors. However, his charisma was able to keep together various factions threatening to tear the party apart. Johnson’s successor will be charged with the heavy task of having to deal with a disunited, unruly party which is unraveling by the day. All this is being done in the public eye, losing the party much-needed public support.
The relations between the United Kingdom and its largest strategic partner and trade ally have seen a significant im pact, with UK imports from the EU falling by a staggering 25 per cent relative to those from elsewhere in 2021.
12GAME OVER, FINALLY!
?
Ms Truss, on the other hand, stayed the course till the very last moment, claiming that she was a ‘loyal person,’ thus indirectly pinning the label of ‘disloyalty’ upon her rival’s
AFTER BORIS,
The race has narrowed down to the final two; Rishi Sunak, 42, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary. Mr Rishi Sunak, 42, the former Chan cellor of the Exchequer in the Johnson cabinet. A global in vestor by profession, with a penchant for investing in small businesses, he was considered very close to Mr Boris John son. There is a strong Indian connection as his grandpar ents hail from Punjab and had migrated to East Africa before moving to Britain in the 1960s. His wife is Akshata Murthy, daughter of Infosys founder Narayana Murthy. Ms Liz Truss, 46, was a deputy director in a right of the cen tre reform think tank before joining politics. She was the Foreign Secretary in Johnson’s cabinet.
We will know next month how true this prediction is. WHO?
The odds are now tilted in favour of Ms Truss, especially after winning the enthusiastic endorsement of two Tory heavy weights. Mr Tom Tugendhat, who was also in the ini tial race before losing out, and the Defence Secretary, Mr Ben Wallace,who have both have praised her performance in the foreign office.
The next resident of 10 Downing Street will be decided on September 5thMr. Rishi Sunak or Ms. Liz Truss.
Theshoulders!Economist has written, putting a racial twist on Mr Sunak’s chances, “Prejudice may stop Rishi Sunak from be coming prime minister. For Mr Sunak, the grandson of In dian immigrants, comes from a demographic that has long gone unrepresented at the very top of British politics.”
13GAME OVER, FINALLY!
However, the biggest hint has come from Mr Boris Johnson, who has reportedly said that chances of Mr Sunak winning are minimal. It must be recollected that Mr Sunak was the luminary who led the exodus out of the Johnson cabinet, a fact which Mr Johnson may never forget or forgive him for.
THE RESULT?
THE FACEOFF Both contenders differ in their political outlook, with Sunak advocating rescue packages to support Britons impacted by the pandemic and increased tax to make up for the expendi ture. Ms Truss does not believe in the increase in taxes but has promised to “start cutting taxes from day one” to pro mote growth. On immigration, Sunak questions the move to send illegal migrants to Rwanda on the grounds of the cost involved, while Ms Truss wholeheartedly supports the plan. Ms Truss is popular amidst the Tory grassroots and has topped the Tory members’ opinion poll. Her main plank is her image as a ‘low -tax libertarian’, an image that may help her claw her way into 10 Downing Street. Inflation-plagued Britons are in no mood to further dilute their earnings, espe cially now that BREXIT is biting. Furthermore, her hold on
foreign policy, having talked tough on almost every import ant issue from China to the EU, has reinforced her image as a tough go-getter who would get the job done in a world that looks increasingly disdainful at the once great Empire.
A single causative factor may be difficult to pinpoint; it was a series of events over the years that finally came to a head in Over2020.the last many decades, the Chinese have been develop ing their military infrastructure at a furious pace, outstrip ping the modest efforts being made by India over terrain which was comparatively more challenging on the Indian Aboutside. a decade ago, the Indian elephant finally woke up and gave momentum to its border area infrastructure proj ects. Along the disputed border, many mutually accepted patrolling points are decided by the China study group and acknowledged nominally by the Chinese. These patrolling points are connected by routes that both parties do not determine as they are subject to terrain considerationsthrough river valleys or dry nallas or over ridges claimed by either side. As Indian infrastructure improved, the frequency of Indian patrolling activity increased exponentially, and erstwhile empty areas that no patrol visited became a regular part of their itinerary. The Chinese, enjoying better infrastructure and less demanding terrain, had been regular visitors to these so-called ‘empty spaces.’ Once encounters between the two sides became more frequent, it set alarm bells ring ing, and more stridently on the Chinese side. As a result, geographical limits that were maintained by both sides to avoid physical contact started breaking down. The first con frontation took place along Pangong Tso and, later spread to other areas and became more physical in intensity than ever before.
A fter years of bonhomie, the balloon was final ly pricked in 2020, just as India and the world grappled with the deadly COVID 19 pandem ic. The confidence-building measures, nurtured so carefully for the last two decades, were thrown into the wind, and India had to review its military and political strategy towards China.
The Chinese view, predictably, was that ‘we are the bigger country, more powerful and therefore we must be deferred
WHAT TRIGGERED THE CHANGE
The Chinese view, predictably, was that ‘we are the bigger country, more powerful and therefore we must be deferred to.’ Indian refusal to comply changed the dynamics of the interaction. If earlier the Chinese were ready to engage in consultation and talk to try and diffuse the tension, now they allowed the situation to escalate. Looking at the relationship, which for more than 40 years had kept the peace at the border, that context began to unravel quickly.
AN
BORDERINTRACTABLEDISPUTE RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA FOUNDATION
THE WAY AHEAD In 2005, in discussions held at the highest political level, it was said that the Chinese and Indians were destined to do big things because they are the two largest emerging econ omies and very influential. If we work together to adjust existing global regimes and shape future regimes, say in cybersecurity, climate or space, then we can influence the outcomes. If we work separately, we would not be able to do that. So, we need to be able to clear the decks to be able to do these things. When Rajiv Gandhi visited Beijing in 1988, he spoke of the Asian Century. All that seems to have been put in cold storage for now.
15AN INTRACTABLE BORDER DISPUTE
to.’ Indian refusal to comply changed the dynamics of the interaction. If earlier the Chinese were ready to engage in consultation and talk to try and diffuse the tension, now they allowed the situation to escalate. Looking at the rela tionship, which for more than forty years had kept the peace at the border, that context began to unravel quickly.
NIRUPAMA RAO Former Foreign Secretary ,GOI
Even after the Doklam border incident in 2017, there were two summits at the highest level, and the general belief was that things were settling between the two nations. Some claim that the change in the status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 was the trigger. However, in October, President Xi had come for the Mamallapuram summit.
The Chinese have been saying since 2009 that there is in transigence on India’s part to resolve all outstanding border issues, and now China is in a much more powerful situation with the West no longer the dominant power they were. It is the Chinese moment now. This sense of confidence seems to have permeated down to all levels, both in diplomatic circles (the wolf warriors) and the military commanders responsible for the Indian border areas. In these changed circumstances, the Chinese openly state that they are ‘no longer willing to give India any more slack.’
When it comes to foreign policy relationships, China’s a notary of the patron-client kind of relationship. China throws the charge of Imperialism against India because when they talk of border issues, they mention India as having dawned on the Imperialist mantle. It also includes instances of the Mcmahon line or territory within our borders today. It keeps trying to make India less than the sum of its parts.
Therefore, the border issue will likely drag on for some time now, and India must be prepared, militarily and diplomatically for the long haul.
THE PICASSO OF AI RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA FOUNDATION In an increasingly digitised world, DALL.E 2.0 challenges the limits of creativity in fine arts.
THE DIGITAL VIRTUOSO Put in simple terms, DALL.E 2.0 takes text as input and produces images as its output. Over the years, DALL.E 2.0 technology has seen many evo lutions - from CLIPs to Diffusion models. CLIPs or Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training is the vi tal connector between texts and the associated im ages; it is the language that teaches computers how different images relate to each other. It stimulates a vector space that represents features of both lan guage and images. CLIP, along with Diffusion mod els - that help in making sense of the chaos of the pixelated mess that may be encoded into the AI. The diffusion model is conditioned on the CLIP embed dings.Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been a popular area of research in AI for long, but Open AI models such as DALL.E 2.0 stand a class apart due to their ability to maintain semantic consistency in the images that it creates and variations of the input image.
A rtificial Intelligence (AI) has silently, and some would say insidiously, crept into all as pects of human activity. Now it is the turn of the creative world to face the latest avatar produced by a rapidly expanding AI domain.
OpenAI’s latest brainchild, DALL.E 2.0, inspired by the combination of Pixar’s WALL-E and the in famous Surrealist painter Salvador Dali is a stateof-the-art text-to-image converter that draws its in spiration from a database of about 3.5 billion data points. It uses CLIP (Contrastive Language Image Pre-training) which trains the AI on millions of im ages associated with their captions and how they can be thought of in relation to each other. No doubt, AI is revolutionising the industrial world through its Industry 4.0, but this is perhaps one of the earliest attempts to encroach into the art world. Through DALL.E 2.0, OpenAI system is trying to establish a basis of understanding for AI systems to perceive and understand the deeper human world that is beyond its usual haunts in industry and busi ness. As Stanford professor Fei Fei Li puts it, “If we want machines to think, we need to teach them to see”.
DALL.E 2.0 may be the new dawn of text-toimage generation with speeds that have never been achieved before, but the prerogative of ethics still comes into play. The question of morality is as complex for AI systems as it is for human beings. In its content guidelines, Open AI’s DALL.E 2.0 bars the generation of images that could be violent, negatively stereotypical or criminal.
17THE PICASSO OF AI
Assessment DALL.E 2.0 is one among the many examples of how the imaginative and creative potential of humans, if rightly tapped, can break barriers to innovation and creativity. Generative art can be the leeway to a greater understanding of the ways in which advanced AI systems interpret or misinterpret the human world. Larger multimodal models usually have a much more impressive performance but also generally have more biased inputs. With greater emphasis on advancements in modes such as deep learning and mechanical memorisation, while addressing its limitations, technologies such as GPT-3 and China’s Wu Dao can be harnessed to completely transform the landscape of multiple industries such as marketing, fashion, interior design, film, etc. Human livelihood could be at risk! HOW DALL-E2 WORKS? ILYA SUTSKEVER Co-founder and Chief Scientist at OpenAI OREN ETZIONI CEO at the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) in Seattle.
IS IT ETHICAL? DALL.E 2.0 may be the new dawn of text-to-image gener ation with speeds that have never been achieved before, but the prerogative of ethics still comes into play. The question of morality is as complex for AI systems as it is for human beings. The ‘Red Team’ of OpenAI found that DALL.E 2.0’s depictions of human beings could at times be too biased for a larger audience. The AI tends to generate images that rein force gender and racial stereotypes. For example, eight out of eight times, the images generated by word prompts like “a man sitting in a prison cell” or “an angry man” depicted people of colour. This only reinforces the need for a deeper and more nu anced search for programmers who feed the data for such high-end systems because they tend to transmit their preju dices and beliefs to the AI.
So, does it mean Masters of the art world would be things of the past as AI takes their place? More important ly, the impact will not be confined to existing and budding masters of the future but to the entirety of its connected in dustries, including the rapidly growing EduTech. Although DALL.E and DALL.E 2.0 create unique pieces of art, it still works on pre-existing concepts available to it from its da tabase. In such a process, the AI seems to exercise the ulti mate control over the kind of output that is being generated. It becomes important to think of the cutting-edge art tech nology of DALL.E 2.0 as something that is being explored or discovered, as opposed to something completely new that is being created. The traditional art connoisseurs are unlikely to be convinced of the uniqueness or originality of the piece of art generated by DALL.E 2.0! One way you can think about this neural net work is transcendent beauty as a service.
To obviate such negative influences, data scientists at Oxford University propose to exclude its ability to generate human faces altogether. So why go for DALL.E 2.0? One of the biggest advantages of DALL.E 2.0 over traditional meth ods of image generation would be drastic changes in the eco nomics and speed of generating such imagery. Yet another dark side of DALL.E 2.0 is its ability to generate deep fakes that look amazingly like the real thing. States and regimes would be keen to use it to create their own false perception of issues that matter to them.
The leap from DALL-E to DALL-E 2 is reminiscent of the leap from GPT-2 to GPT-3,”
Airport troubles revolve around severe staff shortages in the face of soaring demand for air travel during the brief summer period in the UK. Baggage started piling up, and many travellers missed their long-planned vacations as flights were cancelled abruptly. This scarcity of ground handlers originates from the days of the pandemic when mass layoffs and industry-wide workforce cuts became the global norm.Most airlines are financially struggling and have been slow in re-hiring pilots, cabin crew and ground staff as they adopted a ‘wait and watch’ attitude, unsure of the direction the pandemic would take. There was a mismatch in numbers; ground staff was at 70 per cent of pandemic levels while the passen
While the labour shortage at Heathrow may have grabbed eyeballs, the fact is that the UK’s labour market was expected to face a shortage which would have a ripple effect across most sectors of the economy. BREXIT was implemented at a time when the UK was suffering from the pandemic-induced recession, supply chain disruptions, fractured transport networks, labour shortages and rising energy prices exacerbated by sanctions on Russia.
HOLDING A MIRROR TO UK’S ECONOMY
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AIRPORT
B Britain’s famed Heathrow airport is in the news for all the wrong reasons! Amidst chaos and confusion, the airport is reflective of illtimed policies and the impact of the pandemic.
The commercial aviation industry was one of the sectors hit hardest by the ban on travel enforced by COVID-19 for almost two years. The industry lost billions of pounds in revenue, and as the vaccination programme brought the infection rates down, travel started looking Consequently,up.there has been a heavy increase in air travel as more people rush to get out of the confines of their homes and visit friends, families, and tourist destinations in what is being termed as ‘revenge travel.’ The spike in travel has been spurred by attractive packages offered by Travel Agencies, hurrying to make up for their losses of the last two years.Heathrow has tried to minimize the chaos by an nouncing a 100,000 daily cap on passengers until 11 September, which has further infuriated airlines and placed many travel plans in jeopardy
An unprecedented labour crisis at British airports is symptomatic of what ails BREXIT.
PARALYSIS-A DEEPER MALAISE?
While the labour shortage at Heathrow may have grabbed eyeballs, the UK’s labour market was ex pected to face a shortage which would have a ripple effect across most sectors of the economy.
fear that a lack of overseas workers after lockdown would put a “handbrake on the recovery”; nearly 1.3 million are estimated to have returned during the pandemic. It puts the UK in a position of disadvantage as some of the solutions used in oth er countries in the EU are no longer admissible for the UK, post-Brexit. The current skilled worker visa list does not allow for many airport roles, including security control and baggage handling, which are roles that are under-resourced. Over the years, infrastructure in the UK has been deteriorating due to a lack of investment. While the Heathrow management may conveniently lay the blame on airline operators for the chaos, the airport authorities cannot entirely escape accountability; for understaffed security, the unreliable and over taxed baggage system, and the lack of advance plan ning to manage the situation. There has also been a bitter row over landing charges whereby Heathrow had proposed to double the price set by the UK reg ulator, to make airlines pay per passenger.
Britain is unlikely to come up with answers like many of its EU counterparts. This is the kind of contingency that the anti-BREXIT lobby was consistently warning against.
ger load had surged to almost 85 per cent. Since the hiring of airport staff involves comprehensive po lice verification, the entire process is time-consum ing, and numbers cannot be increased overnight. There is also competition for labour from other sec tors, which provide a more lucrative work culture. The aviation industry has demanded to be put on the ‘shortage occupation list’ to bypass immigration rules.
19AIRPORT PARALYSIS-A DEEPER MALAISE?
Assessment The baggage management chaos in Heathrow is a symptom of many systemic issues which Britain needs to address. Brexit and the pandemic have indeed distorted the political and economic fabric of the country, which the new Prime Minister would be hard pressed to resolve.
Heathrow is not the only airport to face the storm. Gatwick and Luton, which also serve Lon don, had more flight delays than Heathrow. Man chester, Birmingham, and Glasgow have all reported customer complaints of long queues.
TIP OF THE ICEBERG?
BREXIT was implemented at a time when the UK was suffering from the pandemic-induced reces sion, supply chain disruptions, fractured transport networks, labour shortages and rising energy prices exacerbated by sanctions on Russia. BREXIT, with its barriers to trade, investment and migration with the UK’s biggest partner, the EU, did not help mat ters.Across Europe, in Amsterdam and Frankfurt, there are several other airports facing capacity road blocks. But the UK is evidently the most hard-hit, owing to the extremely low number of job-seekers and a limited supply of European labour post-Brex it. These are dire warnings for the UK’s economy which should not be ignored and is likely to inhibit the country’s post-COVID economic recovery. Even as companies try to hire at a rate that is the highest in the last eight years, the recruitment is falling far short of targets as well-trained workers, especially from EU nations. The boom being enjoyed by the hospitality, retail, and travel sector with the revok ing of travel restrictions has added pressure on the jobLabourmarket.mobility has become a big part of the UK’s economic woes. Many travel and hospitality workers, laid off during the pandemic, made career changes into more sedate sectors and are now re luctant to return and face the uncertainty of these sectors.Experts
Evidently, Prime Minister Johnson’s administration, caught up in a series of inconsequential scandals, could not focus on issues that mattered. There are no easy solutions, and at least for some time, these problems are here to stay.
The language could not have been harsher and the threat, more implicit. It would be worthwhile to note that since its inception in 1949, NATO has held 32 summits and in none of them was China ever considered a threat to the West. In fact, the last NATO strategic concept released in 2010 had optimistically viewed the Russian Federation as a “potential partner” and had altogether ignored PRC.
Amidst an ongoing war in Europe, NATO categorised China as a potential adversary, a first in its seven decades-long history.
M eeting under the lengthening shadow of the war in Ukraine, the June 2022 NATO summit held at Madrid was being seen as nothing more than a war meeting of western allies discussing the future course of action against Russia rampaging in eastern Europe.
BEIJING UNDER WATCH?
While the Russian Federation continued to enjoy its sta tus as the “most significant and direct threat to Allie’s secu rity and peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”, China did not fare any better. Outlining the strategic environment around NATO, the PRC was accused of “ambitions and co ercive policies” that “challenge NATO’s interests, security, and values.” The concept paper goes on to say, “The PRC employs a broad range of political, economic, and military tools to increase its global footprint and project power while remaining opaque about its strategy, intentions, and mili taryThebuild-up.PRC’s malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation target Allies and harm security. The PRC seeks to control key techno logical and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains. It uses its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies and enhance its influence. It strives to subvert the rules-based international order, including in the space, cyber and maritime domains. The deepening strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation and their mu tually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based in ternational order run counter to our values and interests.”
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However, the strategic outcomes of the summit have been surprising and rather alarming for Beijing. In a major shift from the past, NATO has apparently designated the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a subject of concern for European security in the “contested and unpredictable” nature of today’s world.
As Soviet Russia’s military power and desire to expand its boundaries grew after World War II, Beijing’s ambiguous role in the Ukraine crisis has not helped matters. While it has overtly tried to deny the creation or existence of a Sino-Russian axis, it has refused to go with the West’s playbook to curb Russia’s military and economic might. In fact, it has not hesitated in laying the blame for the current situation in eastern Europe entirely on the doors of NATO, and its principal protagonist, the U.S.
there was a realization amongst the victors and van quished of the European land mass that they needed a security arrangement to keep the Bear out.
Looking at their current activity, the West lists China under the tight grip of President Jinping as a threat to global security. NATO is increasingly get ting alarmed at the broad range of political, econom ic, and military tools available to China to enhance its global footprint “while remaining opaque about its strategy, intentions and military build-up.”
21BEIJING UNDER WATCH?
So how and why have the goal posts now shifted, and will the Indo-Pacific also emerge as a potential area of conflict for NATO?
Accordingly, with the U.S. doing much of the heavy lifting, a western European alliance was cob bled together. Its charter clearly indicated Europe or North America as the geographical areas of con cern. Article 6 was more specific when it defined an attack on NATO as one perpetrated in “Europe or North America” or in the “North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer. Turkey, too, was mentioned as the latter was a NATO member.
Bor der disputes in the South China Sea and along In dia’s northern frontiers, a pulsating Belt and Road Initiative that is rapidly giving China a dominating position in the growth of a wide swathe of nations and sharply rising aggressiveness towards Taiwan all combine to make China a threat that needs se rious consideration, if not preparation. As per the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO, Beijing is figuring more on the radar screen due to provoca tive actions against Taiwan, Japan, and India. Beijing’s ambiguous role in the Ukraine crisis has not helped matters. While it has overtly tried to deny the creation or existence of a Sino-Russian axis, it has refused to go with the West’s playbook to curb Russia’s military and economic might. In fact, it has not hesitated in laying the blame for the current situation in eastern Europe entirely on the doors of NATO, and its principal protagonist, the U.S.Beijing’s close relations with Moscow and their promises of unending ties have raised serious concerns among NATO members. On multilater al forums like the recently held BRICS summit in Beijing, President Jinping vehemently called upon members to leverage their significant economic
The British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss also put in a word of caution, saying that there was “a real risk that they (the Chinese) draw the wrong idea which results in a catastrophic miscalculation such as invading Taiwan.” However, the Chinese were not easily placated.
Assessment The identification of China along with Russia as the principal antagonists of the West was long overdue, considering the inexorable rise of China as an economic and technological powerhouse. This is a reality that automatically assumes the shape of an existential security threat to NATO, and for nations of the Indo-Pacific, it is a welcome development. It makes political, economic, and military collaboration between Europe and the Indo-Pacific that much easier to establish. At last, the neutral stance that European nations had assumed in their economic and geopolitical dealings with the Dragon will be removed. For nations like India, who are confronting the blunt end of Chinese power at their doorstep, it is a welcome step.
SHYAM SARAN Former Foreign Secretary ,GOI dimension into the allied naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific.Beijinghas been preparing for such a contin gency for many decades, creating artificial islands in the South China Sea to match American carrier groups. New naval bases in the Horn of Africa and in the Solomon Islands give the PLAN a greater reach in the Indo-Pacific. China has a history of offensive deterrence, and such pre-emptive moves are in line with its overall strategic concepts to deter outside control over the Indo-Pacific.
22BEIJING UNDER WATCH?
WHAT NEXT? The world is getting concerned with China’s in creasingly hostile ‘wolf diplomacy’ wherein there is no effort to be differential when answering accu sations of its alleged border intrusions in the In dian Himalayas or in the South China Sea littorals and aggressive moves in the Taiwan Straits. A joint statement from NATO states, “We face systemic competition from Beijing as it poses challenges in clout to stand up to a truly multinational interna tional system based upon the founding principles of the UN. His message was clear- “We must abandon the Cold War mentality and oppose unilateral sanc tions and the abuse of sanctions.” Thus, the battle lines are clearly drawn in the sand!
I am very grateful to Synergia for inviting me for this discussion and being able to gather a set of very erudite people it shows the sort of convening power of the foundation that for events like this, we are able to get a very distinguished group of people.So thank you to Synergia and of course, I profit very much by reading the regular contributions that come in the form of the Bulletin of Synergia,which I receive all the time, and some of the very major events which are organized by Synergia on very important topics like cybersecurity or what is happening in the Indo Pacific, all very topical issues.So this has become a forum for very focused kind of discussion and debate on major issues of our time.So great work is being done. Thank you.
Putting on a conciliatory tone, alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg went on record stating that “Chi na is not our adversary, but the balance of power is shifting.’’
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian condemned the new line taken on by NATO, open ly listing China as a potential enemy. Its mission to the EU, in a web post, called the NATO state ment a “slander to China’s peaceful development, a misjudgement of the international situation and its own role, and a continuation of the Cold War mentality.” security, interest, and values.” Four Indo-pacific countries, I.e., Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia (all close allies of the U.S. and equally wary of Beijing) were also part of the summit, which makes the inclusion of China in the NATO strategic concept an acceptance of the ground realities of the IndoThePacific.strategic concept draws attention to China’s efforts to “subvert the rules-based international order, including in the space, cyber and maritime domains”. This is a serious charge as it encompass es almost all vital spheres of human activity. When NATO, along with its Indo-Pacific partners and the Quad, concentrates on the dimensions of cyber, space and maritime security, it is bound to have a significant impact on Beijing. Imagine if NATO powers join the Quad navies in conducting naval drills in the Indian Ocean or even in the disputed South China Seas; the securi ty dimensions of such a collaboration are massive. Tokyo plans to upgrade ties with NATO, and there are talks of upgrading the Japanese defence budget from 1 per cent to 2 per cent of its total GDP. Un der the AUKUS agreement, Australia, too, would be operating nuclear-powered submarines (not nu clear-armed) in the future, which will throw a new
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An American expert had recently caused an uproar when she grimly predicted that the Russian invasion could de generate into a long-term medium to high-intensity insur gency. She claims that for the next decade or so, Ukrainian regular/irregular forces would be struggling to evict the Russian Army from areas under the latter’s occupation in the East. Ms Emily Harding, Deputy Director of the U.S. International Security Programme, said in a Politico post on May 3rd, “Imagine - if you like - a headline from January 2032. It reads: ‘Armistice signed between warring factions in Ukraine, end of the 10-year struggle for control of Kyiv.’ This vision is “not impossible, but not pessimistic either,” she says.
The question remains, are economic sanctions enough for Russia to be compelled to come to the negotiation table and agree to a status quo ante in Ukraine? The West does not seem to have any other fall-back option other than the economic tool. On the other hand, Russia seems to be ready to suffer the utmost economic devastation but not relent on its strategic objectives in Ukraine.
ECONOMIC WARFARE!
W hen the extended standoff between Rus sian forces and Ukraine along the Belar us and Russo-Ukraine borders suddenly erupted into open hostilities, few expected it to last very long. There was too much of a discrepancy be tween the competing sides in terms of numbers, and overall military power, with the balance, tilted heav ily in favour of a rapid Russian victory. However, we did not witness a quick collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces nor a blitzkrieg kind of operational success by the Russians. Even before the outbreak of hostilities, the West, led by the U.S. had made it clear that NATO would not get directly involved in defence of Ukraine. The principal weapons to be used against Russia would be a comprehensive sanctions package, which would be progressively made even more stringent if Russia did not relent.
The use of finance as a tool to limit Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is indeed a powerful strategy which proves that economics has come to the forefront of war strategies.
PUSHED INTO A CORNER
No major economy has ever faced the wide range of economic sanctions that Moscow is facing today. No doubt, the Russian economy has taken a massive hit with its stock markets crashing and multination als exiting the country in hordes. As Russia defaults on its foreign debt, newspapers are rife with spec ulation about what it might mean for the Russian economy and state. Russia finds itself isolated and singled out. In deed, it is a unique situation wherein the country has the financial prowess to fulfill its debt commitments but is unable to do so because of sanctions that deny it the means to make the payment. Effectively cut off from the global financial system, Russian assets have all but become untouchable for foreign inves tors. This predicament for Russia could easily have implications for other countries, too, who might find themselves isolated for different reasons.
Russia’s ‘debt’ is a unique quandary. In terms of its financial obligations, Moscow owes $US100 mil lion in interest on one bond priced in dollars and another priced in euros that were originally due on May 27. The 30 - day grace period extended to the country also expired, thereby rendering it in default as per Moody’s, the rating agency.
RUSSIA AS A DEFAULTER
For Russians who are dealing with double-digit inflation and a deep economic contraction, the de fault appears to be mostly symbolic. It is a potent threat and reminder of Russia’s international sta tus as an economic, financial, and political pariah.
The country’s Eurobonds have traded at distressed levels, the central bank’s foreign reserves remain frozen, and banks are no longer a part of the global financialPresidentsystem.Putin has introduced a new regulation stating that Russia’s obligations on foreign-curren cy bonds will stand fulfilled when the same is trans ferred in rubles to the local paying agent. This is clearly a smart manoeuvre to manage the current crisis, but it is still unclear if the underlying bonds would allow for settlement in the local currency.
THE INDIA ANGLE For India and a few other countries that are on an amicable footing with Russia and continue to conduct business, there are potential risks. India’s trade with Russia is reported at $8.1 billion during 2020-21, wherein Indian exports totalled $2.6 bil lion, while imports from Russia came to $5.5 billion. Defence equipment is the key area for import from Russia. In addition, trade is conducted for mineral resources, precious stones and metals, nu clear power equipment, fertilisers, electrical ma chinery, steel, and inorganic chemicals. U.S. sanc tions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) are a strong de terrent for striking deals with Russia. In addition, if the U.S. imposes secondary sanctions, India could be hit hard. Assessment Economics has been openly pushed to the forefront of war-fighting strategies. Russia would be the first major power that will act as a test bed for its effectiveness. In the short term, it is apparent that it will not force President Putin to the negotiating table till his political objectives have been secured, however long it takes. For long-term impacts, we shall have to wait and watch. At another level, this default situation is a cautionary warning for other countries who could be perilously close to isolation on the global financial stage if their actions are not in consonance with the West. Therefore, is economics a new power tool in the hands of the West to isolate and punish those who dare to tread a different path?
TATA steel and Infosys are two major Indian com panies that have decided to decouple their business operations in Russia.
An immediate response to sanctions from the West has been decamping of several foreign compa nies from Russia, which has interrupted the coun try’s trade and financial ties with the rest of the world. It is a long list and includes such high-pro file names as Apple, Microsoft, Google, Youtube, Master Card, Meta, Paypal, Airbus, Samsung etc.
The default is not expected to affect the Russian economy in the short term because the country has not borrowed internationally in years. In addition, Russia is currently in a hugely advantageous posi tion in exporting commodities such as oil and nat ural gas. The legacy of this default will become a problem when the conflict is resolved, and Russia tries to rebuild its economy. There could be ripple effects of the Russian de fault by adding pressure on global debt markets and making investors more risk-averse and less willing to advance the money. This could easily prompt further defaults in other emerging markets. Investors are now placed in a rather uncomfort able situation. In normal conditions, investors and defaulting governments usually negotiate by which bondholders are given new bonds, which at least address part of the financial duress. Current sanc tions have, however, barred Russia’s finance min istry from negotiations with the outside world.The uncertainty behind the war and estimating the actu al worth of Russian bonds adds to current worries. Since it is not possible to negotiate with Russia, creditors are likely to play a wait-and-watch game.
This situation is a result of action taken by the U.S. Treasury Department, which made it impossi ble for Russia to pay its debt back to international investors through American banks. Russian foreign currency reserves held abroad have been frozen, creating artificial obstacles. Before the war, Russia is estimated to have held $US640 billion in foreign currency and gold reserves abroad, most of which are now frozen. The West has nearly unplugged Russia from the global financial system by inserting payment obstacles. This situation has created unique legal challeng es since Russia has both the money and intent to pay but still is unable to pay its dues. In response, Russia has gone on the offensive and tried to reroute its money through circuitous channels to re pay bondholders.
24ECONOMIC WARFARE!
The World Bank Group annually releases a list of fragile countries to monitor the situation and pro vide support when needed to the most marginalised and vulnerable countries. This list is only growing and for this year includes Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Republic of Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kosovo, Lebanon, Libya, Marshall Islands, Microne sia, Federated States of Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Sudan, Timor-Leste, Venezuela, RB West Bank and Gaza (territory) and Zimbabwe.
A As people anxiously watch the unfolding dra ma in Sri Lanka with an all-powerful politi cal family beating a hasty retreat, anxiety is growing where the axe will fall next. While analysts may blame the Sri Lankan political elites for ‘mis managing’ their monetary and fiscal policies, the fact is that many more countries are in a similar, if not identical, situation.
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC TSUNAMI
Sri Lanka is only the tip of the iceberg that may crash into the global economic system. Poor coun tries have seen their debt burdens soaring as they tried to survive the pandemic on borrowed money. Rising food prices, soaring energy costs, sluggish de mand for commodities and low-tech manufacturing items that emerging economies produce, higher in terest rates, are all signs of a perfect imminent mac ro-economic storm. The Asia Pacific, long looked upon as an engine of growth for global markets, is predicted by IMF to slow down discernibly due to the war in Ukraine, a pandemic that is refusing to die and global stagfla tion. Asia Pacific is unlikely to achieve a GDP growth The future appears dismal without any silver lining at all. This is reflected by the debt vs GDP ratio; from a low of 33 per cent in the 1990s, it has gone up to over 50 per cent in the 2000s. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has painted a very gloomy picture reducing global growth for this year from 3.6 per cent to 2.6 per cent because of the war, which has affected larger economies like the U.S., China, and the EU, which spur global trade.
Citing IMF sources, the Economist claims that 53 emerging markets are displaying signs of severe fi nancial vulnerabilities. These include Egypt, Angola, Tunisia, El Salvador, Ghana, Argentina, Pakistan, Ga bon, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ecuador, Ukraine, and Nigeria. The list will only grow as resource-strapped western banks raise interest rates leaving the emerging econ omies without capital to sustain their growth and those with huge debts unable to service them.
SRI LANKA IS NOT ALONE!
The list of countries teetering on the edge of an economic abyss is growing as the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine spread around the globe. Maj. Gen. Ajay. Sah is the CIO at Synergia Foundation, with experience in conflict resolution, peacekeeping and counter-terrorism.
While Europe was quickly off the block to impose punishing sanctions on Russia for its Ukrainian adventure, it is also the major sufferer. Two governments have collapsed-Bul garia recently, and Estonia, which lost the confidence vote as the public wrath against rising inflation and soaring energy prices left the government in a sticky situation. In France, one of Europe’s largest economies, the ruling party lost its parliamentary majority as the people voted against President Macron’s inability to control inflation and gener al shortages. Similarly, Mr Scholz’s government in Germa ny has dipped to a historic 27 per cent in its popularity rat ing as the German people face the true effect of sanctions upon Russia on their daily lives. With President Putin showing no sign of war weariness, and with the West unable to deliver the coup de grace on his military plans through economic weapons, it is any body’s guess when the war will end. Only once hostilities cease and both sides have claimed victory, real rehabilita tion of the global economy can commence with a degree of certainty.
After the financial turmoil that changed the finan cial world in the 1990s, things started to look up in the 2000s. Many more countries liberalised their economies and became active participants in the global supply chain. Their rise was propelled by the growth of markets in the Asia Pacific as China and India expanded their economic potential. The Global South now had better access to internation al financing and freely indulged in external bor rowing. The stronger emerging markets like India were able to accumulate significant foreign reserves during these ‘happy times’ and were able to weath er the pandemic lockdown. As a result, the number of emerging economies that defaulted till last year was restricted and included habitual defaulters like Argentina and Lebanon. Russian oil comprises nearly 13 per cent of the global crude production and is under sanction. The powerful European market has 40 per cent of its natural gas coming cheaply in pipelines from Rus sia- now, the flow has been reduced and can be to tally switched off at any moment. The future of the multi-billion-dollar undersea gas pipeline, the Nord Stream, connecting the Russian gas field to the fac tories of Germany, is in the doldrums. The commodity market is in shambles. Ukraine pro duces half of the global supply of sunflower. With its ports under Russian blockade, countries like India, which import over 3/4th of their edible crude oil, are experiencing a sharp inflationary trend. Even more worrying is the rising food prices, especially in Africa and the Middle East, which are entirely im port-dependent. Russia and Ukraine supply 30 per cent of global wheat, and Ukraine alone accounts for 16 per cent of the global corn supply. All eyes are now on bigger economies like India, Brazil and Turkey – all have survived so far but are left with little latitude for fiscal mismanagement as the crises prolong. Some survive on borrowing from domestic financial institutions, but most of these are also under increasing financial stress. The col lapse of banks will directly impinge on government fortunes and the people. As major food exporters, Brazil and Argentina may benefit in the short term as commodity prices rise. Turkey has been in eco nomic turmoil for the last 18 months; with its lira crashing, inflation, which in some items was as high as 80 per cent, seems to have somewhat stabilised.
China may experience low growth rates, but with an assuring level of foreign exchange reserves, it faces no threats. Indian foreign reserves, for the time be ing, remain healthy, and there have been encourag ing inflows even now. However public debt load in India remains high and is only increasing.
In a connected world, global supply chains have become critical. Most emerging economies like In dia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines have drawn their economic growth from being active el ements of global supply chains. The two-year-long pandemic badly disrupted these, and as they started picking up late last year, the war in Ukraine has cre ated fresh obstacles. China’s Zero Tolerance policy for COVID has not helped either, as major manufac turing hubs were locked down for extended periods.
A GRIM PROGNOSIS
rate of 6.5 per cent, as experienced last year. In fact, they may go below 5 per cent, if not more. Demand has fallen from major markets like Europe, and commodity prices soar as sanctions on Russia start to bite. The IMF World Economic Outlook database released in April this year pegs the GDP growth rate in the Indo-Pacific as follows: Australia 4.9 per cent (2.5 per cent for 2023), Japan 2.4 per cent (2.3 per cent for 2023), South Korea 2.5 per cent (2.9 per cent for 2003), China 4.4 per cent (5.1 per cent for 2023) and India 8.2 per cent (6.9 per cent for 2023).
26SRI LANKA IS NOT ALONE!
TRACKING THE STORM
‘Instead of independently verifiable new facts from identified sources, there are only “stories” about Putin from unidentified sources, sources who are—we are invariably assured by those who tell the stories— “close to the Kremlin.’’ ‘There is also the phenomenon of old stories being recycled as aston ishing new revelations,’ explains a monogram pub lished by Brookings Institute titled “Who is Putin?”
In Western media, reams have been written on Mr Putin as an individual or political leader. However, there has been little analysis of his interaction and relationship with the elements that make up for Rus sia’s comprehensive power, it’s much-maligned mil itary (thought to be still stuck in the grooves of the sloth-like Red Army by the West), its power elites (including the football club owning oligarchs) and It is obvious that Putin promotes the idea of being a ‘risk taker’, thus perpetuating an image of an unpredictable and, therefore, more dangerous leader. More conservative and risk-averse western leaders would baulk from calling his bluffs, especially if they involve nuclear weapons.
While strategizing how to deal with Mr Putin, perhaps the West failed to observe Sun Tzu’s tenet, “Know thy enemy.”
GETTING A MEASURE OF VLADIMIR PUTIN RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA FOUNDATION
PUTIN’S DNA As Mr Putin climbed through the Russian hierar chy in the first decade and a half of his political ca reer, no biographies were written on him in Russia. His autography, ‘First Person’, was published only in 2000. However, a simple Google search would suffice to find find many books written on Putin in English. And as Mr Putin strengthened his grip on power, this strangulation of information on him only increased, leaving the West with very little but rumours and political titbits to draw their picture of him.
When opposing sides in a conflict make deep assessments of their adversaries’ ca pabilities to stand up to a war situation, they sometimes fail to discern the significant diver gence in the viewpoints of an outsider and that of the subject himself. This becomes a fatal flaw at the political and strategic level. Russia historically is a nation that is hard to read- ask Napoleon and Adolf Hitler, who planted the seeds of their crushing defeat and ultimate disgrace in the vast steppes of Mother Russia. Hitler calculated that deeply riven by purges, the Red Army was a rotten fruit ready to drop; the primitive Slavic race was too disorganised to organise a defence in depth against the might of the battle-hardened Wehrmacht. History and the indefatigable Russian way of war proved him wrong, and fatally so.
W
The Brookings monograph, in its introduction, says that “Vladimir Putin’s behaviour is driven by the im perative to adapt and respond to changing—especial ly, unpredicted—circumstances.”
Thus, compared to his opponents, he appears to be better equipped, psychologically, to handle the immense pressure. A popular myth that has gained currency paints Pu tin as a ‘reckless gambler.’ Few realise that it is a trait that originated from Putin himself. In his 2000 book, he quotes a KGB Academy assessment report showing him to have a “diminished sense of danger.”
A LARGER-THAN-LIFE IMAGE
After the collapse of the Iron Curtain, as the em pire built by the USSR at the cost of so much blood disintegrated, a smug West considered the rump state an inconsequential third-rate power. In all his writings, Mr Putin has publicly given vent to his angst at the collapse of the Soviet Union, a cataclys mic event for which he lays the blame squarely on the West, led by the U.S. and enabled by ‘traitors’ within Russia. The invasion of Ukraine was just wait ing to Thehappen.question uppermost in every mind is, now that Vladimir Putin has crossed the Rubicon and di rectly challenged the West, does he have it in him to last the fight?
There is also some misunderstanding of Mr Putin’s political and strategic objective in Ukraine. In the beginning, speak ing from their own experiences, western strategists expect ed a blitzkrieg-like offensive that would quickly capture the Ukrainian Centre of Gravity-Kyiv. Then the global press would be summoned, and with a lot of fanfare, ‘mission ac complished’ would be announced, even if a long and costly insurgency continues. With the benefit of hindsight, it now appears that capturing and holding Kyiv or any major population centre in the North was never the desired objective. Physical punishment was to be meted out to Ukrainian military assets and command and control centres located in and around the Ukrainian capital, irrespective of the substantial collateral damage to civilian areas, while the real war of occupation was to be fought in the east. Crimea had to be secured to the Russian mainland through a contiguous belt of territory connected by major population and industrial centres, roads, rail, water canals etc. Putin in no way feels that he is losing the war, and with NATO in tangles, he is in no hurry.
Putin sees the war not only against Ukraine (whom he cat egorises as a western puppet) but against the West, which has been ignoring Russian strategic concerns for the last 30 Ayears.peace agreement with Ukraine would not be enough, but something more substantial involving the West, which
28GETTING A MEASURE OF VLADIMIR PUTIN
Over the years, we have seen carefully choreographed imag es of a bare-chested Putin riding horses over rough terrain, scuba diving, practising karate, and even going bear hunting in Siberia. To modern intellectuals, such acts may appear amateurish, especially if done by a head of state. A dictator like Idi Amin would be more likely to indulge in such public ity stunts than the President of the world’s biggest nuclear power state. However, all this is done with a specific pur pose, to get to the common Russian people, to see him as a man of action who gets things done, an image they would like to have for themselves.
Now that war has continued for nearly five months and counting, apart from a few scattered protests amongst Rus sia’s liberals and intellectuals, the common Russian contin ues to support and die for the cause, without a murmur. The Western media may paint a demoralised conscript army. Still, the fact of the matter is that in the Russian way of warfighting, causalities, and lots of them, are an accepted element of any victory. Look at the Russian operational con duct in the Chechenia wars, the first and the second, and the slew of anti-terrorist operations, whether in the 2002 opera house in Moscow or the Beslan school siege where hundreds of innocents died to kill a few terrorists.
STRATEGIC OBSCURITY
most importantly, the common Russian citizen who bears the brunt of Mr Putin’s decisions.
The proficiency with which he manipulated the ‘democratic’ process in the Kremlin to perpetuate his political existence and slowly built Russian hard power along with its economy was a stroke of genius that should have given the West a hint.
In hindsight, this image helped keep NATO and the U.S. at bay during the crucial period when Russia was mustering its forces on the periphery of Ukraine and later when his army stumbled on the gates of Kyiv.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writing in the Foreign Policy, analysed a few Western assumptions about Putin. She believes that ‘in Putin’s eyes, he is not losing this war […] and he is happy to wait until Ukraine concedes that Rus sia is here forever.”
N ew and continuing crises such as climate change, persisting inequality and regional wars believe capitalism’s assertion as the panacea for poverty in a globalized world. Even as erstwhile socialist majors like China, India and Russia seek the capitalist path to ensure econom ic plenty for their people, doubts rise in academic and policy circles on the viability of the capitalist philosophy and its implementation. This is under scored by millions in countries like India, Brazil, and Latin America, whom the fruits of capitalism have bypassed, leaving them economically marginalized. With the likelihood of a global recession growing, a prolonged period of high inflation and low growth looks increasingly probable. These are the direct result of the pan demic and are now being compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Doesthe capitalist system have the necessary adjust ment power to mitigate the impact, or will it magnify the disturbances? CHANGING PERCEPTIONS In the current uncertain economic climate, dis cussions about inflation, price pressure, and flag ging growth rates highlight public concern. The nat ural corollary to such doubts is a fresh questioning of the ways capitalism works and whether it has the best solutions for an increasingly fractured global economic system.
Many argue that capitalism or market-based econ omies are at a historic transition point. Capitalism evolved as the dominant economic metre of the in dustrialised world and largely remains unchallenged as a growth enabler. It has delivered unparalleled prosperity and well-being with marked improve ments in health and life expectancy. The industrial revolution followed by the information revolution has been a major force enabler in the entrenchment of capitalism.Ascapitalism grew to dominate the world order, there were few challenges to this economic model. The current financial fragility as a result of multi ple crises covering economic, political, and environ mental factors has provided the most serious chal lenge to date. The financial crisis in 2007-09 had its origins in financial dysfunction, which caused mayhem in the global economy. A similar paralysing situation is now at work but with origins outside of finance. Supply chain mismanagement has given rise to pro In its essence, the current crisis of capitalism outlines the necessity of a more socially and environmentally sustainable path for its survival.
REJIGGING CAPITALISM?
RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA FOUNDATION
Capitalism, the dominant economic system, sorely needs a de novo approach to overcome significant glitches in its manifestation.
duction delays and economic shocks. Capitalism has not been able to address many of the challenges we face today in society. Evident dis cords between and amidst countries on the global economic stage have fuelled discussions about the viability of the capitalist system.
CAPITALISM’S MANY AVATARS Capitalism and its rapid spread are not without check. Along with alternate models which are being experimented with in different parts of the world, including China, political shifts have taken place in Western democracies such as the U.S., Great Britain, Hungary, Poland, Brazil, and France. It is interesting to look at two of the world’s most populous countries in the world, India and China, and chart their paths to capitalist economies. Today, China is the world’s leading exporter, ahead of the United States and Germany but there is a chequered trajectory to this path. Between 1958 and 1962, 45 million people starved to death because of China’s experiment with socialism. Since then, China has made remarkable chang es to its political and economic model and evolved a uniquely Chinese “third way,” which is a middle ground between capitalism and socialism. The state continues to play an important role in the Chinese economy. And as a result, China has managed to lift millions of people from poverty in a remarkably short time. As per World Bank estimates, between 1981 to 2015, the number of poor people in China fell from 878 million to less than ten million.
And yet, China’s all-powerful state-sponsored growth is only half the story. China has proceeded toward the tenets of free-market economics by in troducing private ownership and reducing the influ ence of the state over the economy. China has em barked on a transformation process which weans the economy away from complete state dominance. This is evident from China’s close study of its powerhouse neighbor, Singapore. This interest in other countries’ economic models led to a slow pro cess of transition away from the Chinese planned economy model in favor of a free–market economy.
Initial efforts were made to grant public enter prises greater autonomy, and these were embold ened by many contributing factors spontaneously. Market forces have triumphed over government pol icy, and institutional innovations have taken place without efforts made by the Politburo but by local initiation, often against the rules.
While much remains to be done in China, the Chi nese economist Zhang Weiying stresses that China’s
The Trilateral Commission, founded in 1973 by David Rockefeller, is one such institute which has brought together senior policymakers, business leaders, and representatives of media and academia to discuss and propose solutions to some of these problems. In its most recent report on ‘Capitalism in Transition’, the Commission outlines three ma jor concerns, including climate change, disruptions triggered by the digital revolution and rising in equalities.TheReport emphasises the many colors and shapes capitalism has taken across the globe. In this sense, a one size fits all approach does little to address capitalism’s flaws. The challenges of green transition, the digital revolution, and rising inequal ities, in fact, necessitate a recognition of capital ism’s multi-faceted nature. There are bound to be very difficult trade-offs which need to be made in terms of growth, efficiency, and stability, which each capitalist model will solve differently.In its essence, the current crisis of capitalism outlines the neces sity of a more socially and environmentally sustain able path for its survival.
30REJIGGING CAPITALISM?
31REJIGGING CAPITALISM?
THE INDIAN EXPERIMENT In India, the story pans out slightly differently. India was born with a mixed economy which con tains the features of both a Capitalist and a Socialist Economy. The word socialist was inserted into the preamble by Indira Gandhi during the Emergency, most likely out of political considerations to gain support from the left. This resulted in a country where many people are dependent on the govern ment and its schemes for their livelihood. It was strongly believed that an economy ruled by individ uals or private players would lead to a crisis because it would be difficult for the poor to afford the prod ucts and services offered by private companies. This narrative has since transformed. The need for efficiency and productivity has led to public sec tors being privatized. As a result, even conventional government strongholds have altered, such as LIC IPO, privatization of public sector banks and IRCTC now running the Lucknow - New Delhi Tejas express train.There is global reportage that Indians are becom ing more enterprising. Indian entrepreneurs have registered over 310,000 new businesses in the past two years. The pandemic is, of course, a major har binger of this change as jobs and livelihoods van ished overnight.
Assessment Continuous adaptation has made capitalism survive the many pulls and challenges it faces across the world. From a pure-bred market fare to a mixed economy to increasing market influences, capitalism has come to stay. Privatisation and liberalisation are clear flag bearers of the current global economic setup. It is also clear that the system needs to continuously adapt to keep pace with modern challenges. Three broad challenges have already been identified that currently threaten capitalism’s fare passage. Climate change, persistent inequality and making room for equal opportunity form the cornerstone of our current survival challenges.
The political mood of the country has also afford ed this change. Just like Nehru was once the champi on for socialism in the country, Modi has been able to champion capitalism to the masses. This enabling political, economic, and social transformation rep resents a significant process of change for India. The transition will not be easy for an average Indian, but it seems evident that privatization is here to stay. It is hoped that privatization will enable better fa cilities and services, thereby creating a more stable economy.Global experience has taught us that pure play by market forces is insufficient to manage the myriad, diverse challenges confronting our society. Capital ism will be required to make continuous evolution and tweaking in order to make sustainable progress.
success in recent years has “not been because of the state, but in spite of the state.” There is still a need for further reforms and great potential for further improvement and growth.
A CHANGING WORLD Technology is shaping our world from the stand point of business, policy, inclusiveness, and innova tion. Amidst all these, the start-up ecosystem can be the engine to keep the country’s economic dream running no matter what’s happening in the rest of the world. Tech venture capitalism has completely changed the startup scenario over the last decade. India must evolve its own strategy to empower its tech industry growth and not try to follow the work book of Silicon Valley. While Silicon Valley is no doubt the epicenter of the global tech revolution, and it has a great vantage position, its perspective is entirely an American one and may not necessarily be fully relevant or relatable to India. “And so, I thought an Indian perspective on this was very important [..] given my own strength in different sectors and my interests in different disciplines,” says Anirudh Suri about his book, “The Great Tech Game.”
RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA FOUNDATION
THE GREAT TECH GAME
T echnology is increasingly shaping the socie tal, economic, and geopolitical landscape of the world. It is also driving a gradual shift from globalisation to a fixation on self-sufficiency and decoupling. Each nation is attempting to posi tion itself as an economic nerve centre for the key technologies of tomorrow.With the likelihood of a global recession growing, a prolonged period of high inflation and low growth looks increasingly probable. These are the direct result of the pandemic and are now being compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India, too has been focussing on the technological growth of the nation, especially in the digital field. Its efforts are spearheaded by the Ministry of Electronics and Infor mation Technology (MeitY), which was carved out of the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and has an annual budget of approximately US $ 1.5 billion.
Human society was first transformed by agri culture which created new winners and losers and changed the way mankind lived. With agricultur al produce available in surplus, humans had some thing to trade, changing man’s hunter-gatherer way of life drastically. As trade spread across oceans, it engendered geopolitics, and suddenly there was a whole new ‘Great Game‘ to master. Geographical chokepoints like the Suez Canal, the Malacca Straits etc., joined the lexicon of geopolitics and continue to thrive to date. Countries that were neither pro But are these existing multilateral institutions up to the task of meeting the challenges of global governance under threat from Big Tech? Or does the world need a new set of institutions to deal with the evolving challenges because these are far more global in nature today, than what the world had faced in the 1940s?
As a successor to the Industrial Revolution, technology is transforming human society like nothing before.
GLOBAL TECH COMPETITIVENESS
India too, must consider the new realities of the Tech Game within the historical pillars of economy, geopolitics, and society. India aspires to be in the
Global governance implies that citizens’ rights and the Westphalia concept of sovereignty itself must be protected from the juggernaut of Big Tech. The world needs a global human compact; Google should not ever, even in case of war, turn off Android for any country or Apple making its operating system redundant. Much like the multilateral institutions like UN, WHO, WTO etc., that came up in the postWorld War II era, which, even if not completely suc cessful, were able to set the stage for a rule-based world.
CHANGING VALUES
About 50 to 70 years ago, leaders and captains of change like Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King read long substantive treatises by contemporary and past thinkers to figure out their worldview and how they wanted to restructure their societies and nations. Hence,emerging leaders were more mea sured. Technology has changed all this; in a world dominated by Twitter, deep complex problems are being summarised in a short analysis. Impatience is a dominating trait that is getting imbibed today by the pace of modern living, making our policy makers more prone to impulsive decisions. Look at the way the war in Ukraine has developed; it appears neither side has a long-term strategic game plan, and the goal posts are being changed every day.
Climate is a problem, an outcome of the Industrial Revolution. Similarly, with technology, remote work ing and offshoring have become common, generating their own shares of human foibles and concerns.
33THE GREAT TECH GAME 128th SYNERGIA FORUM : THE GREAT TECH GAME
ducers nor buyers but straddled these choke points became relevant as intermediaries between the east and the west like Turkey, Egypt etc. Trade spawned colonization because great seafar ing nations competed, mostly violently, to grab the natural resources in Asia and Africa. These resourc es were, abundant cheap labour, and a captive mar ket in colonies for manufactured goods, the leading colonial powers became the engines for the industri al age. Thus, we see that as the ‘game’ kept evolving, it shaped global economics, geopolitics, society, cul ture, values etc. So, where does it leave India? India has grown in attraction partly because it represents a significant market for tech products and services but also be cause it has things to offer to other countries. India Stack is a very good example which aims to create a unified software platform using application pro gramming interfaces like Aadhaar authentication, Aadhaar e-KYC, eSign, Digital Locker, Unified Pay ment Interface (UPI) and Digital User Consent. Another field that India can gain a lead in is cli mate tech across multiple sub-sectors like agricul ture, green buildings, energy efficiency etc. Nordic nations have made great strides in this field, and India is already closely collaborating with them to transfer its critical elements to India. If this suc ceeds, India could shape the world order. Tech is shaping human values. An analogy can be drawn between the Industrial Revolution, which changed societal structures in Europe overnight. In an agricultural society, human communities were spread over as space was needed for cultivation; in dustrialisation demanded large concentrations of human labour and led to teeming megacities. This caused problems that we are still struggling with.
34THE GREAT TECH GAME
top three or top five tech nations in the world; How ever the reality is quite different. There are certain fundamentals that inspire hope in India. For one, we have the sheer number of bodies that are needed to do a lot of the scale. We have the know-how, and we have talent, backed by our English-speaking skills. We should also have the incentive to do well in the Tech Game because, as a nation, we have more chal lenges and problems to solve than any other nation of our dimension. There’s also the measure of our start-up ecosystem, the number of unicorns that we can rely on, and the amount of entry-level funding that’s flowing in. All of those are metrics that will count when it comes to deciding where India stands in the tech game. However, the world does not think the same. As per the Harvard Business Review, which decides based on digital competitiveness metrics, rate of change and growth, India is not even the fastest growing industrial evolution, and neither are we starting off from a very high base right now. Harvard based its analysis on publicly available data, sourced from the country and what is available on the Internet, using some 200 different metrics that combine to give the index score.
THE WAY AHEAD India should not allow itself to be lulled into a smug self-praising world, turning a blind eye to what the world is assessing us as capable of. We must constantly track our progress as a nation and, like the human development in dex, create a tech evolution or digital evolution index to track multiple metrics, the first being digital access. The fact is that no matter how many smartphones you have in India, the number of users who are using the Internet for econom ic purposes is still very low. So, what should be the right metric for judging our progress? Are we happy that we are the third largest or fifth largest GDP in the world? Does that make us the fifth richest? No, we have to look at per capita because that is what matters. And what is our inequality index? The way we evaluate our success as a country in the digital economy or the tech game has to be a lot more comprehen sive than just the number of unicorns or the amount of en try capital funding being raised. In addition to taxes, big tech generates employment. How Anirudh Suri is the Managing Partner, India Internet Fund, and author of “The Great Tech Game-Shaping Geopolitics and the Destinies of Nations.” This article is based on his conversation in Synergia Foundation with a select group on his book. ever, employment in the tech world looks very different from employment in the erstwhile industrial world; today, employment is not going to be at the same level. Tech firms will have fewer people by virtue of higher productivity in the tech center. The actual trickle-down effect of tech businesses has to be measured not in the numbers of millionaires or billionaires that have been placed on the Forbes list but in what is hap pening to the wealth that has been generated; where is that wealth getting invested? It is capital ready to be invested in other sectors of the economy, and these tech businesses can act as economic engines. The government, on its part, must incentivise the entrepreneurs so that the capital is used within the country.
In the last party congress, Xi Jinping said that China has moved to the centre of the world and the Chinese model is a model for others to follow. Developing countries can bring about rapid social and economic development if they follow the Chinese example.
The modernists and revisionists wanted to deal with the challenge of adopting the modern instru ments (used by the western oppressors) duly refined to their cause. China found the answer to this dilem ma through Marxism, which, even if western in ori gin, was acceptable as it was not imperialistic west ern and was an instrument of modernisation. India found its own solution in a nonviolent struggle and non-cooperation.Japanwasanother beacon for China, even if they had an adversarial relationship. In Chinese eyes, Ja pan had successfully met the Western challenge by using western ways, at least superficially, while re taining its own cultural purity, and this was worth emulating.
CHINA AND THE U.S. In the 1970s, when the Americans turned towards China, it was not to create the next capitalist para dise but to draw closer to its fold a big nation that had stood up to the mighty USSR. It was purely a geopolitical choice. Also, do not forget that during the entire course of World War II, China under Chi ang Kai-shek was an American ally of sorts. The relationship underwent a metamorphosis after 1978, when China made significant economic re forms and liberalization. The geopolitical interests remained and went on to reinforce the economic and commercial aspect of the relationship since the rivalry with the USSR continued. In the last party congress, Xi Jinping said that China has moved to
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C Chinese influences have been very strong along its periphery, particularly in Japan and Korea. For many years, Vietnam was part of the Chinese empire, and therefore influenced by the Chinese culture. But beyond that, there is not a very heavy imprint of Chinese culture elsewhere. In Indo nesia or Malaysia, and in Cambodia as well as Laos, there is some Chinese influence. In comparison, the imprint which has been left on these countries and their people by India is far greater than that of Chi na. The narrative that China was always the domi nant power and influenced all of Asia is, therefore, not quite true.
LOOKING AT THE WEST
China’s interaction with western thoughts is also very interesting. In the 19th century and early part of the 20th century, both China and India were in the process of overthrowing the western yoke, but the debate raged in both as to what kind of instruments they must use to achieve this. The conservatives/tra ditionalists blamed the neglect of cultural roots for the decline and enslavement and advocated going back to the roots to reclaim their lost pride.
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The Chinese President has been on record stating that such an opportunity for a change in the balance of power was not seen in a century. Huge invest ments have been made in CCTV, the state-owned behemoth, to spread Hollywood-style blockbusters. The Chinese diaspora plays its part in influence ped
conversation between Kissinger and Chinese leaders of the 1970s is very revealing as they show the Americans recognising the Chinese as a very spe cial category. In contrast, references to India were quite derogatory. This shaped the Chinese foreign policy too. However, the Chinese were far more amenable to the Indian viewpoint when they saw it growing at a rapid rate. For example, in climate is sues, they were willing to accede the leadership to India, as also in WTO.
Thedling.facts of a Chinese debt trap are something that sounds good to western ears, but there is much more in this narrative; even in Sri Lanka, only 10 per cent of the debt is to Chinese companies. The larger problem in Sri Lanka has to do with logistic risk management. Similarly, in Pakistan, the CPEC has not worked out to what it was thought to be, not because China is not trying, but because there were challenges within Pakistani politics and soci ety, which remain unaddressed and have turned into huge security risks. In many countries, especially in Africa, the infrastructure that BRI has put in place has been very conducive to local development. This has prompted the G7 to come up with its GII fund.
the center of the world and the Chinese model is a model for others to follow. Developing countries can bring about rapid social and economic develop ment if they follow the Chinese example. This goes beyond economic cooperation and BRI, and extends into education and Confucius Institutes spreading their network across the globe. China made its own strategy of the Special Econom ic Zones and whatever they set up in those areas was geared towards the outside world, not so much for the inward market. Many Western companies and big multinationals assisted China in that. At the same time, calling the comparison with the East Asia model only a superficial one; the Chinese listed two pillars for their economic growth. One, land in Chi na has always been with the state and its conver sion from rural to urban generated a huge amount of money that could be spent on infrastructure. Second, much of the capital that flowed into China was essentially from ‘greater China.’ i.e., Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan and not from the Americans or the Europeans. The Americans came later, investing with money and, more importantly, technology, enabling China to exceed the growth rate of East Asia by one to two per cent. The Americans related to China because of the latter’s inherent intelligence, their past connec tion with American missionaries and the mystique of Chinese culture, which had always attracted Ameri Thecans.
During the period of rapid growth, China displayed considerable modesty in learning from others, act ing like a giant sponge, and absorbing whatever knowledge that it could get. Dr Paul Raj, an acknowl edged expert in sensors, artificial intelligence etc., has been going to China on invitation from Tsing hua University, which is their technical university. The deal is to spend three to four months at a time, during which seven to eight young, bright, Chinese are attached to him to observe his research work and learn from it.
China can no longer afford to overlook what is due to it from its investments in BRI to keep the mo mentum of the project going; it is not doing charity
However, from 2007-2008, the Chinese attitude hardened when there was a global financial and economic crisis. The whole perception of the West changed because the West had failed because of the financial crisis. The Chinese were saying, “You were our teachers; now you have to learn from us!”
Ukraine has also been a turning point. If, as things stand, a long-drawn military and economic face-off between the West and Russia lead to both draining economically and militarily, China stands to gain.
Western domination and superiority was no longer acknowledged, and the gap between China and the West began to shrink dramatically. On the other hand, the gap between India and China started get ting wider, which influenced the Chinese perception of India as a nation no longer in the same league as them. The Chinese were now telling India-“You should know your place.”
36THE CHINESE WORLDVIEW
CHANGING EQUATIONS
127TH SYNERGIA FORUM : HOW CHINA SEES INDIA AND THE WORLD
In the run-up to the 20th Party Congress in Octo ber, this is of great relevance. These very large cor porations owe their growth, to a large extent, to a patronage network in the party. Therefore, when you are looking to make certain that there is no threat to Xi Jinping’s undisputed leadership, then such mega-corporations have to be brought down a few notches. One way of attacking any potential rival within the party is by hitting at the corporate sustaining the rival. This will have its blowback be cause the very drivers of growth in China may then suffer, which to a certain extent has already started happening. This has implications for foreign policy and investments, too, as BRI money to Africa has stopped However,flowing.Chinese manufacturing continues to re main unrivaled in terms of competitiveness. After its border standoff with China, India has been seek ing to diversify its supply chains or make products indigenously. However, industry experts feel that there is no way that we can compete with cheaper imports from China. It is the same situation in the pharmaceutical in dustry; India’s exports of pharmaceuticals owe their competitiveness in the international market to the cheaper APIs from China. This is the kind of inter connection and interdependence that has developed in the global market. Even if, in a concerted effort, projects are given to an Australian or German com pany, the subcontractors would invariably be Chi nese. Today, the Chinese manufacture Indian reli gious articles (Pooja items) & even polyester saris at prices that no Indian manufacturer can match by far.
37THE CHINESE WORLDVIEW
The wellsprings of rapid growth, which were their state-owned enterprises, are in a sense, limited. There was space for the private sector to grow, and they were given a great deal of support by the state, and they became very large multinational companies like Alibaba, for example. However, these very well springs of rapid growth are now being regarded by the state as threats to the state; they have become too powerful, and they must be shown their place.
but looks at all the BRI projects as a kind of solace for its industry. But there is a fundamental problem in the way these infrastructure projects have been Thestructured.Chinese have built, a Mombasa-Nairobi rail way, all of which do well, but they have no business plans, and the companies are not trained to make profits, So even if they, build something, it is a trap in the sense that the company doesn’t know how to make money on it because no Chinese company was trained in the public sector to make money. So, you have these trains running, they can’t com pete with the lorries, and they’re still running but making losses, and the host country must repay it. The country has taken a sovereign guaranteed loan and therefore must give a higher interest rate, which today they find difficult. It may not look like a to tal failure, but the countries are finding it extreme ly difficult, and they have stopped borrowing from China now. The Chinese are very averse to getting involved in multilateral debt relief packages along with their cli ent states; they would rather try to work out bilat erally. Part of it is related to the conditions that the IMF would impose in order to give them support. Some of the details will have to be revealed; China does not want those to be made public.
CHANGING FACE OF CHINESE CAPITALISM
Dr Shyam Saran is a former foreign secretary who also served as the prime minister’s special envoy on nuclear affairs and climate change and as chairman of the National Security Advisory board. This article is based on his interaction at Synergia Foundation on his latest book, ‘China’s View of the World and India.’
It is, therefore, clear that India offers a gamut of options for all classes of investors. In an otherwise difficult global environment, with an increasingly negative yield, India provides the opportunity to generate healthy returns over a long period.
The trade partnership between Canada and India has been flourishing for the last few years. Canadian investors have been at the forefront of India’s bid to improve its infrastruc ture, and major Canadian investors like Brookfield and Fairfax have a presence in India. The next big investment opportunity in India is in the start-up space. A recent study estimates that there are around 300 start-ups in the country, with some working in cutting-edge technologies like AI, machine learning, fintech, etc. These start-ups are in the three metro cities of- Mumbai, Delhi and Banga lore, are valued at more than $100 billion.
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INDO-CANADIAN TIES Canada has a strong presence in India with consul ates in Mumbai, Chandigarh and Bangalore. In addi The Modi government has been conducting path-breaking trade deals with nations like the UAE and Australia. Encouraged by this change in pace, Canadian negotiators have relaunched trade and investment negotiations with India. The Australian deal is being taken as a template to further the negotiations. Putting an optimistic note, the High Commissioner says, “We’ve made more progress in the last three or four months on those trade talks than we did in the previous ten years.
“A big gaping hole in our free trade network is India,”-HE Mr Cameron MacKay, High Commissioner of Canada
DIPLOMAT SERIES
However, the bond between India and Canada should not only be seen from the lens of economic engagement. Both the countries are vibrant and have a foundation for the legal system based on English common law. A strong people-to-people connection also drives the ties between the two nations. Cana da houses one of the largest Indian diasporas in the world, totalling 1.6 million people, accounting for more than 3 per cent of its population. Connectivity between India and Canada has also expanded con siderably in recent years, with multiple daily flight options being available, which is an important pre cursor to the increased investment rate. So clearly, India and Canada’s partnership is multi-dimension al.
Canada has an innovative environment with many business incubators affiliated with 96 Canadian universities across the country. Students who go to Canada get the business experience that they need. If they’re doing a start-up, they can get themselves into an incubator which will introduce them to ven ture capitalists and get them to grow their business.
CANADA-AN INVESTMENT HUB
Top Canadian businesses are already seeing the po tential in India, and a similar potential exists for In dian business investment in Canada. Canada offers a very highly educated population, the most educated population in the world according to the OECD, in terms of the percentage of the population that has a post-secondary education. Like India, Canada, too, is incredibly diverse, with over 200 languages spo ken. The diversity can be assessed by the fact that in a city like Toronto, more than 50 per cent of the resi dents are immigrants. Vancouver almost feels like an Asian city with so many migrants settled there and their culture so much in evidence.
tion, there are four trade offices across India staffed by fifty Canadian trade commissioners whose fulltime job is to connect Indian businesses to their Ca nadian counterparts. After the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, global value chains are realigning, leading to greater trade and investment between trusted partners. While some big economies have more opportunities, the geopolitical risks are also greater. Canadian busi nesses are also looking at shifting their partnerships to partners they can trust.
Canada has the second soundest banking system in the world; during the financial crisis of 2008, the Canadian financial system was rock solid all the way through. Canada has unique access to global markets; it is the only G7 member with a free trade agreement with all the other G7 nations, which translates into access to 61 per cent of the global economy through fifteen FTAs. Free trade agreements exist through the North American Free Trade Agreement, the EU Free Trade Agreement, and the Trans-Pacific Part nership, to name the better-known ones. Apart from these, there also exists a network of free trade agree ments through Latin America, Colombia, Peru, Cen tral America, Chile etc. In the 1980s, Canada negotiated its first ambitious,
39NURTURING A START-UP ECOSYSTEM
Indo-Canadians have made their mark in Canada. There have been Indo-Canadian premiers of prov inces and many cabinet ministers-the current de fence minister is an Indo-Canadian like many of her colleagues in the federal cabinet. “Canada is a country with too much geography and not enough people. And the government is increas ing our target to bring new fresh blood into Cana da year by year. And where are we bringing it from? Well, India is the top source country for every visa category in Canada,” says the High Commissioner of Canada. India has replaced China and Mexico as the top supplier of people to Canada. Canada is a popular destination for Indian students because of its world-class educational institutions and an educational system centered around skilling people. It is very common for Canadian university programmes to include a semester or two with an internship in the real business world so that by the time students have graduated, they have not just a diploma or a degree but also work experience. “And with our visa system, if they choose to stay in Can ada, they’re welcome to stay after they get that de gree,” says the High Commissioner.
comprehensive free trade agreement with the Unit ed States. Most Canadians were opposed to this deal because it could lead to the opening of what was a relatively protected Canadian market and were terri fied, they would lose their public health care system and the public education system. They feared all the Canadian companies would get bought out by big American companies. Ten years later, 80 to 90 per cent of Canadians say that free trade with the United States was the right thing to do.
Karnataka is trying to transform the entire city, system, and state, enabling all this in a very big way. The state is collab
FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF INDO-CANADIAN TRADE
Dr Ashwathnarayan C. N., Former Deputy Chief Minister of Karnataka Minister of Higher Education; Minister of Elec tronics, Information & Biotechnology and Science & Tech nology, interacted with the High Commissioner of Canada at Synergia Foundation. His welcome speech is reproduced Karnataka,below. in general, and Bangalore, in particular, provide an excellent opportunity for investors to make a wise choice in their investment. Karnataka has many advantages to of fer; there is ample talent from all parts of the country resid ing in Bangalore, Bangalore is blessed with a vibrant culture cross-pollinated from other parts of India, and there is no polarization in the society, with all cultures being equally re spected. Bangalore is truly a melting pot. Bangalore city has been rapidly expanding. Though there are challenges, these are being addressed very strongly to en sure that the city of Bangalore and Karnataka are the best to do business in. This year Bangalore was ranked as the best performing city for start-ups because of the entire ecosys Whatevertem. was a challenge in the industry, we have addressed it, and we have come out with a very good policy. Wherever interventions are required, wherever the right policies are to be brought in, we have brought in the right policies, the right support system, and the education system. We are com pletely transforming the entire education system, which is very relevant to the times. The transformation will ensure that the talent will keep increasing much more.
The commercial relationship between India and Canada is significant and growing. It is worth around Canadian $ 100 billion, and some of the biggest pen sion plans in Canada have invested in India. The Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board has over a trillion Canadian dollars’ worth of assets under management who are constantly scouring the globe for the best returns for their investment and they are increasingly finding it here in India.
“A big gaping hole in our free trade network is In dia,” says Mr MacKay. An FTA with Canada would provide India with incomparable access to the U.S. The Canadian and U.S. economies have been effec tively wholly integrated for decades. Canada launched trade and investment negotia tions with the government of India more than ten years ago. Prime Minister Harper and Prime Minis ter Singh at the time, both with an economic back ground, knew that the way to grow this relationship was to open trade more. So, they launched these negotiations, and then frankly, it fell to the bureau crats on both sides, and for the next decade, there was no progress. “Absolutely none. We never really got to exchanging serious offers on the trade negoti ations,” laments Mr MacKay. However, things have changed in the last few years. We still have a long way to go. It’s very difficult to nego tiate these trade agreements. There are about a thousand pages of treaty text and several thousand more of tariff schedules, how we will eliminate the tariffs, etc. So they take time. There’s also always resistance from certain business sectors concerned about new competition from some for eign competitor. Canadian businesses are no threat, I don’t think, to Indian businesses. But I am cautiously optimistic that in the coming year, we can conclude a relatively ambi tious and comprehensive trade and investment agreement that will open doors to having much more trade between the two countries.”
40NURTURING A START-UP ECOSYSTEM
Much of the investment is in infrastructure. “Cana dian pension plans and portfolio investments love public-private partnerships. They want to do busi ness with big, trusted partners close to the gov ernment and then make big investments in infra structure,” says the High Commissioner. However, investments are also being sought in the venture capital space; they are looking not for the already big unicorns but the ‘pseudocorns’. Then there are bilateral trading goods, services, and foreign direct Overinvestment.300Canadian companies are manufacturing in Karnataka. While $100 billion in trade between the two big G-20 economies- India and Canada- may look big, it is an underperforming economic rela tionship; Canada’s few days of trade with the U.S. alone amounts to that much!
His Excellency Cameron MacKay I really want to thank Synergia for putting together such a terrific event. As High Commissioner for Canada to India, I just couldn’t be more pleased to have a partnership with such important thought leaders like Synergia on how we can take our tech sector cooperation even deeper between Canada and India. ment had to be done through the government. The situ ation has changed drastically with reforms in labor laws, land procurement and laws that favor growth have been Karnatakaformulated.has taken the lead in upskilling its people in a big way. So, all the right institutions concerning the industry have been established; machine learning has been priori tized. We established many institutions which can cater to any kind of requirement of industry ideas. We are ensuring that Karnataka can keep pace with the required manpower and talented manpower in all aspects. Fairfax and many more companies have made big invest ments, and we appreciate the campaign. International Air port was taken over by Fairfax last year, and it is growing tremendously. The tenure of the lease agreement has also increased by 30 to 60 years, even before they could com plete 14 years. We have been very positive; we have been reaching out. Our CM is also a very good entrepreneur; he’s got good qualifications, an engineer and a very promising leader. orating and partnering with all possible stakeholders, be itNASCOM or industries. We are working with all compa nies so that whatever the demand, whatever the require ment, we are ensuring those demands are catered to very strongly, and we are ensuring that the communication gap is closed very strongly. We are not trying to work in silos.
Companies, whenever they come out with a proposal to establish any kind of industry, are asked what kind of sup port they would like on the day of the proposal. And facilitation has been happening in a very big way.A major transformation has been brought about in procuring land for indus trial purposes.
lishagriculturalnotnon-agriculturistsPreviously,wereallowedtopurchaselandtoestabindustry-allprocure FORUM : START-UP ECOSYSTEM
41NURTURING A START-UP ECOSYSTEM 130th SYNERGIA
Once called the Rainbow Nation, a term coined by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, the winner of the 1984 Nobel peace prize, after the first fully democratic elections of 1994, it is getting progressively less tol The call of the “Rainbow Nation” seems to have gone abegging, with promises of government housing and electricity largely left unfulfilled. The recent aid money meant to assist the fight against COVID-19 was also misappropriated. The government, in turn, has recognised the frenzy of the masses and is loath to alienate a large part of the electorate by condemning xenophobia.
RAINBOW NATION NO MORE!!!!!
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Once seen as an oasis of hope for the ‘dark continent’, the Republic of South Africa threatens to degenerate into anarchy as migrants no longer feel welcome or safe.
S outh Africa’s chequered history has had a long and tumultuous path. After winning the fight against apartheid, the new rulers, African Na tional Conference (ANC), offered hope and sanctu ary to migrants from all corners of Africa. But this honeymoon face was not to last long, and fissures began to appear dated as far back as 1995.
The iconic leader, Nelson Mandela, then repri manded his citizens not to heap the blame for their misfortunes on the migrants. Deeply respected by his people, his consul was seriously taken, and for some time, the persecution of migrants was halted. Even the most rabid anti-migrant politicians were kept under check. But that seems to be changing now.Now, politicians across the political divide are compet ing to see who can blame immigrants most loudly. As a re sult, life for immigrants in South Africa has grown nastier and more dangerous. Whipping up public anger against the migrant community has become an acceptable political gambit giving rise to a whole new breed of parties such as Actionsa, a right-wing populist party; Economic Freedom Fighters, a left-wing alliance; and ethnicity-based parties such as the Inkatha Freedom Party and the Patriotic Alliance. All have a common trait - inciting fear of foreigners to woo voters. Such xenophobic sentiments are not exclusive to South Africa but are common in countries facing a worsening eco nomic situation and falling employment rates. The ‘outsid er’ is the first victim when jobs get scarce who, in turn, seeks solace in the world of crime.
RIGHT WING EPIDEMIC In dire times, the most extreme types of leaders and political groupings are taking the centre stage, and that is what is being experienced in South Africa.
The reasons are not too far to seek; the World Bank’s report titled ‘Inequality in Southern Africa’, esti mates that “10 per cent of the population owns more than 80 per cent of the wealth.” Operation Dudu la claims that illegal foreigners across Africa have swamped South Africa’s socio-economic infrastruc ture.Blaming the rising crime wave on these for eigners, the group demands state action of the most stringent type. Concurrently, Operation Dudula has incited vigilantism against migrants through unbri dled violence by its cadre. As the African continent’s most developed economy, South Africa routinely at tracts migrants from neighbouring countries such as Mozambique and Zimbabwe in search of a better life. These migrants work in small businesses, setting up convenience stores, while others work in restaurants or as cleaners and gardeners. They often do the jobs South Africans don’t want, and analysts claim they contribute to the economy. Operation Dudula typi cally targets places where Zimbabweans, Mozambi cans, and others work. It is not only the black migrants from other African countries who are in its crosshairs but also “undoc umented” Indians and white people. This is severely damaging South Africa’s international reputation as a developed, well-regulated nation and runs the risk of scaring off much-needed foreign investments.
Not surprisingly, politically, its leader Lux is gaining in im portance with many offers to run for political office. Feel Assessment South Africa’s path to socially equitable economic independence is a long road despite it being one of Africa’s economic powerhouses. Poverty and marginalisation of the youth result from structural and systemic issues plaguing the country, which must be corrected first.
South Africa stands to gain a lot by managing its migrant inflow through well-policed and regulated channels. Welleducated, hardworking and skilled manpower is available in plenty in its extended neighbourhood that could be harnessed to boost productivity within South Africa in its industry and mines. However, migrant control is essential or else they will swamp its systems. ing the pulse of the public which supports such xenophobic outpourings, even moderate political parties are forced to harden their stand. Community leaders, with the backing of political parties, are obviously turning public despair against the state’s failure into anger against the migrant community, who enjoy lit tle political patronage. Riven by rampant corruption within its legislatures and higher echelons, the ANC has failed to deliver on its promises, and now a disillusioned public is de manding results.
43RAINBOW NATION NO MORE!!!!!
erant with each passing day. The right-wing is getting better organised, as sym bolised by Operation Dudula, a splinter group from a faction in the Put South Africans First movement. Led by 36-year-old Nhlanhla ‘Lux’ Dlamini, the group is widely regarded as xenophobic and dangerous. The group owes its start to the violent protests that ex ploded in Soweto shanty towns last year against the jailing of President Jacob Zuma. It is a tragic turn for a black township which was the epicentre of the anti-apartheid resistance and the home turf of giants like Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu.
The biggest mall, that em ploys the biggest number of people, is the one left standing. If it falls, it’s the last elephant.
A SOCIETY AT WAR
The call of the “Rainbow Nation” seems to have gone abeg ging, with promises of government housing and electricity largely left unfulfilled. The recent aid money meant to assist the fight against COVID-19 was also misappropriated. The government, in turn, has recognised the frenzy of the mass es and is loath to alienate a large part of the electorate by condemning xenophobia.
Borders within Africa are a product of colonialism, and cross-border tribal affiliations are strong with identical linguistic and cultural affinities. This calls for governments and leaders to proactively create conducive and enabling environments for all their citizens. There are greater battles to be won by curbing corruption, improving public services and improving the ease of doing business.
NHLANHLA “LUX” DLAMINI Southanti-immigrantAfricanactivistandthe leader of Operation Dudula
Biowarfare owes it roots to ancient times; when the virus was used as a weapon of war to kill millions. Smallpox is frequently regarded as the most devastating bioterrorist weapon due to its aerosolized infectiousness and high case fatality rate of 30%.
T he World Health Organization eradicated smallpox in 1977. However, some of the grav est wars waged on humanity can be traced to the deadly smallpox epidemic that wiped out mil lions of people worldwide in the 17th and 18th cen Theturies.World Health Organization eradicated smallpox in 1977. Routine vaccination in the United States stopped in 1972, leaving about 114 million unvacci nated people (or 42 per cent of the population) in 1998. In a highly susceptible, mobile population, smallpox would be able to spread widely and rap idly throughout this country and the world. The use of infectious disease threats against indigenous peoples extended beyond the deployment of armed Priortroops.to the complete eradication of smallpox, the illness was widespread in the world. Variola major and variola minor were the two main types of small pox, with the latter being a much lesser form of the illness. Variola major was the most common varia tion of the illness up until the end of the 19th centu ry. Smallpox outbreaks took on a recognizable year ly pattern, peaking in incidence in winter and early spring. This finding was in conjunction with the fact that aerosolized orthopoxviruses are particularly heat- and humidity-sensitive.
The smallpox virus became the weapon of choice for America’s wars of empire in the second half of the eighteenth century. The malicious use of the small pox virus helped the Spanish conquer the Aztecs. Around five hundred years ago, in February 1519, the Spanish General Hernan Cortes was commissioned to lead an expedition into the mainland. After taking note of the general public’s discontentment toward the then ruler, he rallied the locals and formed alli ances. However, it wasn’t the people but the secret weapon he wielded – the virus they bought that led them to victory. The virus spread throughout the vil lage, taking the lives of thousands. They were partic ularly affected by the virus because of their inherent immunological naivety. The consequent degradation of the Aztecs and the fall of the ruler translated into their victory. One victim recalled the epidemic: “The plague lasted for 70 days, striking everywhere in the city and killing many of our people. Sores erupted on our faces, breasts, and bellies; we were covered with agonizing sores from head to foot.”
In the spring of 1763, Fort Pitt, in present-day Pitts burgh, Georgia, experienced a smallpox outbreak. It is believed that blankets and a handkerchief wrapped
PERILS OF IMMUNOLOGICALLYTHE NAÏVE
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in linen were graciously given to the Delaware Indi ans at the fort from the hospital which took care of the smallpox-ridden patients. And over the summer of the next two years, the virus ravaged the Delaware and Shawnee communities. However, despite this, it is considered a relatively small outbreak. Smallpox unleashed by the British was more efficient warfare than their artillery war tactics. The fact that diseases can drive human history is testimony to the magnitude of the threat it poses to humankind. To mitigate such courses in history, vaccines have been developed. Sir Edward Jenner initially developed the smallpox vaccine. In order to distinguish the illness from syphilis, which was then known as the “great pockes”, the word “small pockes” (pocke meaning sac) was first used in En gland around the end of the 15th century. While an apprenticeship sparked Jenner’s interest in the cow pox’s protective qualities, it wasn’t until 1796 that he took the first step toward completely eradicating the scourge of mankind that smallpox. He had heard for many years that dairymaids who had experienced cowpox were naturally immune to smallpox. Jenner considered this and came to a conclusion - cowpox may be intentionally transmitted from one person to another in order to provide protection against small pox, in addition to providing protection against it. Although naturally occurring smallpox has been eradicated, there is still heightened concern that the variola virus might be used as an agent of bio terrorism. As we can see from history, the US Army started germ warfare research in 1942 in response to information of comparable initiatives in Berlin and Tokyo. When the US government learned about the Soviet Union’s bioweapons programme in 1956, the focus shifted from bacterial to viral diseases. The biological warfare programme in the United States was discontinued in 1969 by then-president Rich ard Nixon. In 1972, his administration took the lead globally in promoting the first multilateral disarma ment treaty, which outlawed the use of such agents for anything other than research on vaccines and Smallpoxtherapies. is frequently regarded as the most devas tating bioterrorist weapon due to its aerosolized in fectiousness and high case fatality rate of 30%. Due to the termination of vaccination, the world’s popu lation has also become more vulnerable to smallpox, meaning that only about 20% of people are current ly protected.Today, we understand the significance of the experimentation and relentless pursuit of Dr. Edward Jenner. However, the vaccine does not give lifelong immunity, and people vaccinated against smallpox may still need to be revaccinated in a small pox emergency. The WHO committee recommended all virus stocks for destruction by June 1999, and the 1996 World Health Assembly agreed. An expert committee of the Institute of Medicine concluded in 1998 that continued research on the variola vi rus was necessary, and the two approved facilities should retain the virus. The best therapy for patients is antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections. Nations must be wary of using biological warfare as it could affect the world in retaliation. They must work in conjunction to preserve global health indi ces and make the world a safer place to live.
45PERILS OF THE IMMUNOLOGICALLY NAÏVE
President Draupadi Murmu’s election as India’s 15th constitutional head is hopefully a recognition of the long marginalised tribal communities spread across India.
Smt Murmu, 64, has many firsts against her name- the first President hailing from the indigenous scheduled tribal community and the first post-independence-born Indian to be elected to this high post, the youngest occupant of Rashtrapati Bhawan (The President House). She was also the first woman to hold the appointment of governor of Jharkhand when she took office in 2015.
T he nomination of Smt. Draupadi Murmu to India’s highest public post was a long-due step in the republic’s long path to social eq uity. NDA’s choice of Murmu as the presidential candidate was not a surprise as she had previously been considered in 2017 when the BJP finally set tled on Ram Nath Kovind instead. Once her name was out, the outcome was in no doubt as reported; there was crossvoting from opposition benches to get her elected. In the end, the contest was entirely one-sided, with the opposition candidate, Mr Yash want Sinha, gracefully conceding defeat after just three rounds of voting.
INDIA’S CONSTITUTIONAL HEAD
A BEACON OF HOPE RESEARCH TEAM
Smt. Murmu, 64, has many firsts against her namethe first President hailing from the indigenous scheduled tribal community and the first post-inde pendence-born Indian to be elected to this high post, and the youngest occupant of Rashtrapati Bhawan (The President House). She was also the first woman to hold the appointment of governor of Jharkhand when she took office in 2015.
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On becoming a republic, India opted for an elected head as the First Person of the country. The elec tion is an indirect process through members of both houses of Parliament and the legislative assemblies of the states and union territories of India. Charged with the onerous responsibility of being the guard ian of the Constitution, the President’s powers, roles and responsibilities are enshrined in Articles 52-62 of the Indian Constitution. The President has a combination of legislative, executive, military, ap pointment duties and pardon. In the legislative set, the President has the power to dissolve or call the Houses of LegislationParliament.isenacted into law only after receiving the President’s assent. The President can send a bill (excluding money bills) back to the Parliament once. The President is authorised to pass ordinances on the advice of the Union Cabinet when the Parlia ment is not in session and nominates 12 members who have made outstanding contributions in various fields to the Rajya Sabha. In addition to the usual ex
The Chief Justice is also appointed by the President from a list of choices given by the Supreme Court.
Various other members of the executive branch of the government, including the attorney general, am bassadors, and governors, are also appointed by the InPresident.themilitary field, the President plays the role of the commander-in-chief of the Indian armed forces. As a result, the President can declare war or peace with any country, and all treaties are made in the name of the President. The President also acts as the last recourse and has the power to grant pardons, including in cases of the death penalty.
A LONG HARD ROAD TO THE TOP Smt. Murmu began her career as a humble teacher at the Sri Aurobindo Integral Education and Research Centre in Rairangpur, Odisha after which she moved to a junior assistant’s post in the Odisha state irri gation department. She began her political journey with the BJP in 1997, where she worked as a coun cillor in Rairangpur. As she progressed through the political hierarchy of her party, she won legislative elections twice to the Odisha state assembly and served as a cabinet minister during 2002-2004, when she was recognised with the best legislative member Smt.award.Murmu has always advocated the case of her tribal community as the President of the Sched uled Tribe Morcha of Odisha. As the governor of Jharkhand, Smt Murmu returned two controversial bills-the Santhal Pargana Tenancy (SPT) Act and the Chhotanagpur Tenancy (CNT) Act. She did this in response to the widespread unrest from tribes, who were uncomfortable with the move and viewed it as an attempt by the state to dilute their rights over their land. Her support for the tribal unrest in the state forced the BJP to rethink its strategy on the Smt.issue.Murmu is also a strong proponent of women’s rights, especially that of tribal women, saying, “I come from a society that is very rigid when it comes to perceptions about women, and they would raise questions on any woman stepping outside the con fines of their homes.” (as quoted by the Economic RitambharaTimes) Hebbar, a professor at the Centre for Study of Developing Societies at Tata Institute of Social Sciences, mentions, “Her rise epitomises a struggle, and she has worked her way up — a reflec tion of her political acuteness.”
DROUPADI MURMU
Satisfying to me that the people who were devoid of development for years -the poor, Dalits, backward, the tribals - can see me as their reflection. My nomination has blessings of the poor behind it, it’s a reflection of the dreams and capabilities of crores of women. President of India
ecutive powers as the head of state, the Parliament can further bestow additional powers to the Presi Thedent.President has several ceremonial duties, too, such as appointing the prime minister and the Union Cabinet based on the advice of the Prime Minister.
REFLECTION ON INDIAN DEMOCRACY With Smt. Murmu’s rise to the Constitution’s top post, India’s presidency has truly come full circle. In her first address after taking the oath, President Murmu said the country’s deprived, poor, Dalits and tribals could see their reflection in her, which, she added, is a matter of great satisfaction for her. “My nomination has blessings of the poor behind it. It’s a reflection of the dreams and capabilities of crores of women,” said the newly appointed President of ItIndia.isa matter of pride for every Indian whereby per sons of stellar credentials representing the true democratic fabric of our country have come to oc cupy the country’s highest constitutional post. From schoolteachers to scientists, India’s presidential candidates uphold the country’s ambitions for inclu sive and modern growth.
47A BEACON OF HOPE
First, we need to spend more time, effort and investment dollars towards R&D, especially the kind that crashes costs to end-users thereby enabling mass adoption. Second, we need to leverage a wide array of climate financing options to blitz-scale the best solutions be it tax incentives or philanthropic grants or low cost development or ESG financing or monetising carbon credits or government-backed backstop pools for SMEs and so on.
This article is based on a discussion moderated by Mr Suraj Subramaniam, Managing Partner Airavat Capital, on ‘Climate Technology: Developing a Game Plan for India’ with a select group of experts at the Synergia Foundation.
My big takeaway from the discussion was that two elements are critical for India to win in the climate tech game.
T he UN has clearly outlined that India must take drastic measures to tackle climate change by 2030. If unheeded, this is likely to result in multiple climate change-induced disasters in the next two decades.
As the third largest carbon emitter in the world, af ter China and the U.S., India clearly has a role to play on the global stage. India has maintained that it is all set to meet and even outperform its Paris climate agreement pledge to reduce carbon footprint by 3335 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. Experts and the IPCC are sceptical and opine that many coun tries, including India, might be slipping out of range.
SURAJ SUBRAMANIAM Managing Partner, Airavat Capital
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report outlines how climate and non-climate related risks interact with one another to result in severe debilitating risks across regions and sectors. India is particularly vulnerable owing to its unique geographic, demographic and socioeconomic fab ric. Greenhouse gas emissions, in particular, must be drastically reduced by 2030 to avert a climate ca tastrophe, as per the report.
From floods to earthquakes to pandemics, India is at the eye of the climate storm; can R&D and technology provide a panacea?
BRACING UP TO CLIMATE TECH RESEARCH TEAM SYNERGIA FOUNDATION
STARLENE SHARMA
Climate tech investments have emerged as a strong constituent of India’s investment portfolio owing to a conducive policy environment, as demonstrated by PM Modi’s commitment at the COP 26 summit. The counter to climate change requires multiple strat egies to make a sustainable impact. Investment in R&D is the key to piecing the climate puzzle togeth er. Experts contend that it wasn’t that important even in the internet era as we were mostly just ap plying the same technologies from abroad to India. In the climate space, however, technologies must be tailored to India’s specific needs. Thus far, much of the activity in the climate space has been concentrated on large, utility-scale renew able project financing. Increasingly, there has also been an attempt to bring about sustained decarboni sation of the economy at all levels. Sustained mo bility has, for e.g., attracted $705 million in invest ment since 2016. Similarly, the energy sector too has raised $301 million. Agriculture has attracted an exponential flow of investments owing to its immense vulnerability to climate change. Venture capital focuses on making farmers and farming practices self-reliant and cli mate-resilient.
TECH FOR CLIMATE: A GAME CHANGER
Historically, technology has been the key enabler for rapid advancement, as was seen in the industri al era. Technology allowed Western Europe and the U.S. to leapfrog into the developed world. Technol ogy and innovation play a crucial role, as was wit nessed even during the pandemic when digital and tech-driven businesses prospered while traditional Venture capital is increasingly a viable option despite the long gestation period & high upfront capex investment required typically in climate tech start-ups. This is because economically viable products are coming up in the climate tech space that is scaling up faster than before. Firms like ReNew Power in the solar space or BluSmart & Ola Electric in the EV cabs space are good examples, as are some of the agri-tech firms being funded by VC firms in India. These firms are now scaling up much faster than expected because the macro-trends are in their favour. These tailwinds make the otherwise long gestation period actually shorter for climate tech firms. In addition, as the internet tech start-up methodologies are applied to climate tech start-ups, I expect the high upfront capex requirements to also go down over time. This is evident from the fact that PE ANIRUDH SURI MD, India Internet Fund funding in climate tech exceeded $53B in 2021.
India has indicated a commitment to this cause by pledging to meet 50 per cent of its energy re quirements to non-fossil energy by increasing its ca pacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030. PM Modi has also said that India will reduce its total projected carbon emissions by 2030, decrease the carbon intensity of its economy by 45 per cent by the same year and achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. India’s size, strategic location and socioeconomic potential will make an impact on the global climate scene; India could be the catalyst change maker. The question remains whether politicians, bureaucrats and scientists can coalesce to confront the climate crisis?
PUTTING TOGETHER THE CLIMATE JIGSAW
49BRACING UP TO CLIMATE TECH
cycles suffered to the point of collapse. Advanced economies such as the U.S., Europe, and Japan are already set with high energy use where they can only attempt reductions or incremental change. China’s massive appetite for energy allows for minimal over sight and influence. India, on the other hand, has a huge socioeconomic cost from the negative impact of climate on its 1.3 billion population, most of who live in areas that are highly susceptible to adverse climatic events. Therefore, it has little choice but to take a leadership role with innovation on climate change. In order for this to happen, a few pieces in the puzzle must be pieced together. The policy must converge with tech requirements alongside financ ing to make this a sustainable and long-term change. There are some emerging signs that this just might be happening with COP26 commitments and net zero commitments.
Founding Partner, Green Artha We are no longer at a point where the mindset of climate or economic development is viable we have to think about climate AND economic development. India has tremendous scope to be a leader in the green economy. In the immediate term, that means leveraging a more diverse range of financial instruments to make the right types of capital available and to build bridges between innovation and industry to accelerate adoption. With a view to planning for the near future, we should be supporting innovations to address not just mitigation but adaptation, products built for customers, not problems and that have a pathway to economic viability.
The toolbox for finance and business models for cli mate innovation is as yet still quite limited. Many entrepreneurs and investors are seeking to address climate change by investing in “climate tech” firms which range from renewable energy batteries and EVs to green construction and low-carbon agricul ture.
Assessment The climate tech environment requires a combination of technology, finance, and policy to come together. This convergence must take place to effectively address the urgency and severity of the situation globally.
Skill building and financing for climate tech are the two essential requirements where both the government and private sector need to get involved. India will need to invest in R&D and innovation to keep pace with the requirements of this space.
GREEN FINANCING Climate funding has attracted growing interest from a range of options such government funds, Ven ture capitalists (VC) and private equity (PE) firms, banks, development finance institutions and philan thropists.VC/PE investors are uniquely placed to support this change as they invest in start-ups which work on renewable energy generation, electric mo bility and ancillary businesses like OEMs, compo nent manufacturing, and waste recycling services. Historically most countries that have established climate goals effectively have been led by a public funding model. In India, it might not be most ef fective to expect public funds to get allocated for climate change, given the various pressing demands on the government. In addition, the link between climate change and economic and environmental change has not been effectively made. We do need more patience which doesn’t effectively translate in a political environment where the next election cy cle determines priorities.
PRIYA SHAH General partner , Theia Ventures
ARUN KUMAR SRIDHARAN General Manager, Research and Development, SunEdison
Early-stage investing in R&D is another missing piece in India. In China and in the West, there has been sustained support through public funding for early-stage R&D in universities and labs. There are some limited instances of support through Infosys Foundation and the Science Foundation, but experts estimate that in India, only 0.67 per cent of GDP is invested in R&D, while we need to bring it up to at least 3 percent.
The link between climate change and farmers isn’t always discussed, and yet, it is one that has an imme diate impact because of the link with food security. So, a major implication of this scenario is that we need to innovate for poor customers also. Technolo gy will need to be innovated or taken up to suit cus tomer comfort levels which bring in the dimension of ‘inclusivity.’
The ability to leapfrog other countries in addressing the climate crisis depends on three levers: technology, skills, and finance. In the areas of technology and skills, in particular, there is large scope to boost lab-to-market innovations through university deeptech hubs where early-stage companies can be proactively connected directly with corporates so that these business models have a ready set of customers to scale up into commercial, breakthrough, net zero-focused technologies.
Climate tech needs a convergence of public and private for R&D to flourish. This is not just in terms of finances but also technical cooperation and building an ecosystem where innovation can flourish.
To be resilient and thrive in the face of climate change, we need energy that is produced, stored, and consumed locally. Ideally, the technologies that make this energy should themselves be made with fully recyclable materials and renewable energy. All stakeholders in society need to join and contribute to the development of technologies and the necessary behaviour-modification solutions. At SunEdison, we begin by deeply understanding our customers’ energy needs and use cases. We then develop and deploy suitable, high-quality, distributed energy solutions with a special emphasis on quality.
50BRACING UP TO CLIMATE TECH
The private sector can perform a more active role such that a sustained interaction between the exist ing R& D institutions and the private sector becomes more effective. Currently, R&D and the private sec tor are at two opposing ends of the spectrum, with a lot of disillusionment in between! The private sec tor’s emphasis on immediate returns doesn’t seem to tie in well with the researcher’s innovation focus.
BACKGROUND
Ghana became the first African country to become independent from European domination in 1957. The nation was referred to as the Gold Coast when it was a British colony, a clear allusion to its most valu able resource. Arab and Jewish traders crossed the Sahara from the north to purchase gold in return for spices, cloth and salt, even before the advent of the Europeans in the 15th century.
The bulk of the gold mining in Ghana is small-scale, and therein lies the biggest concern. Industrial scale mining extracts gold from deep within the earth’s bowels, and whatever surface voids are created are filled up to mitigate environmental degradation. On the other hand, artisanal mining uses light equip ment and naturally occurring flowing water like streams and rivers. Once the gold veins close to the earth’s surface have been exhausted, the miners shift locations, leaving behind ugly gaping holes on the face of the land, filled with poisonous pollutants like mercury that is used to segregate precious gold dust from sediments.
The supposedly small-scale gold mining has a large-scale environmental footprint, degrading Ghana’s ecosystem and endangering lives and its future.
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I n 2005, Ghana shipped out $1.4 billion worth of gold, dwarfing the value of its other two biggest foreign exchange earners, cocoa and lumber. Gold is now the country’s most valuable export, and 13 per cent of the world’s gold production comes fromButGhana.likemost riches, this gold also comes at a price, and a heavy one.
GHANA’S GAME OF GOLD RESEARCH TEAM
Artisanal mining contributed seven times more de forestation than industrial activities between 2007 and 2017, even though it only makes up approximate ly one-third of the nation’s gold production today. Even when the Government sends the army to shut down the illegal gold mines, they burn the mining equipment and do not reclaim the land, which the miners capture again. The illegal gold mines rely mainly on children who abandon education to sup port their families. Ghana suffers from low soil fertility, productivity, and a falling land mass (caused by marine erosion), posing the biggest threats to its agriculture and, by extension, food security for generations. Gold min ing is only contributing to the worsening situation. Open cast galamsey deprives the land and makes the Mining is still one of the most dangerous jobs in the world, both in terms of immediate danger and fatalities as well as long-term effects, but it continues to attract people into its trap
ANALYSIS Ghana’s desire to generate more revenue to sustain its lagging economy through gold mining has been a major causative factor. The 2017 gold policy allowed Ghanaians in possession of mining licenses to collab orate with foreign investors. While few mega-global corporations moved in, as the projected yields did not match their profit margins, foreign investment boosted the domestic artisanal industry. In all this, the Chinese footprint is written large all over the gold mining industry. The recent inflow of foreign miners—primarily Chinese—has sped up growth, and this is true even though non-citizens are not allowed to engage in small-scale mining in
52GHANA’S GAME OF GOLD
Mining is still one of the most dangerous jobs in the world, both in terms of immediate danger and fatal ities as well as long-term effects, but it continues to attract people into its trap. The social upheaval and ecological devastation caused by Chinese galamsey activities ought to be enough of a wake-up call. Al though many Ghanaian civil players consider this a grave issue that needs immediate attention and are taking steps to curb it, they are disappointed by the pervasive corruption in the nation.
Individual gold licences and ultra-small-scale mining must be stopped and cooperatives created with Government and international assistance. Scientific techniques and industrial safety standards must be enforced without raising the cost of production prohibitively.
soil liable to erosion by robbing it of all flora, top soil, and subsoil. Ghana’s leading cause of water pol lution is the dredging and washing of alluvial gold in rivers and streams. Using dynamite to blast rocks also causes the dis charge of airborne particles that lower the air qual ity. In fact, the situation is so bad that it is antici pated that by 2030 Ghana will need to import 90 per cent of its water supplies. While finally, the Government and its policymakers are waking up to the danger exacerbating a situa tion worsened by climate change. Not surprisingly, the bulk of Ghana’s agro-ecological zones has been pushed to their limits. It may already be too late, and an environmental disaster may loom.
Assessment
TheGhana.significance of China’s labour deregulation in the 1970s, China as an aid partner, and—most nota bly- import of people and machinery in connection with development projects cannot be ignored when tracing Chinese involvement in Ghana’s mining sec Intors.recent years, Ghana has borrowed billions of dol lars from China for major infrastructure projects like dams, factories, and roadways, making it susceptible to pressure to allow special concessions to Chinese nationals unavailable to other countries. As domestic anger against outsiders, mainly Chi nese, grew, the Government was forced to convene an inter-ministerial task team against foreign min ers working illegally. By July 2013, the military-style task group had deported 4592 Chinese nationals, ac cording to immigration authorities. The task team made an effort but could not completely stop and discourage illegal mining.
The larger question is about poverty and the need to survive daily. Ghanaians are not indulging in these illegal mining activities by choice; they would gladly shift to a safer profession given a choice. The worst impacted are its children, which contributes to an increased dropout rate in schools, drug misuse, violent crimes, prostitution, and teenage pregnancy. The answer lies in better managing the larger economy and creating a safer and environmentfriendly gold industry, matching global safety standards.
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