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TACKLING UNSEEN BLACK SWANS, SEEN BLACK ELEPHANTS AND KNOWN BLACK JELLYFISH IN INDIA Tobby Simon
The world is witnessing huge changes and there are plenty of opportunities for India. Its governments will have to be alert to what the future is likely to bring to the Republic and be aware of potential threats. For, global governance is no longer about individual leaders plotting their own course. Instead, it involves bringing together some of the finest and most avant-garde thinking in contemporary societies, replacing competition with collaboration.
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Journal of the Harvard Club of India: India at 75
n the post-pandemic era, as international
comprehend and implement policies that address
systems
such matters can magnify the risk factors involved
undergo
tectonic
shifts
and the world gravitates towards a
and incur high latent costs.
multipolar order, several opportunities
For India, it is critical to prepare for all these
lie in wait for the Indian Republic. To
types of threats that are out of the ordinary and not
capitalise on this potential, successive
bound by convention. Although infrequent in nature
governments
identify
and operating in contravention of dominant rules
and insulate themselves from future
and societal norms, unconventional threats can
shocks. This entails a more informed
metamorphose and acquire a more conventional
appreciation of the ‘unconventional threats’ that
hue when there are changes in the surrounding
beleaguer humankind.
framework. For instance, in the build-up to the First
will
have
to
One such form of threat most stakeholders
World War, many military experts had classified
are familiar with—‘the black swan’—describes the
submarine warfare as an unconventional threat.
disproportionate effects of previously unobserved,
This was because Germany had announced the
high impact and hard to predict events. Indeed, it
renewal of unrestricted submarine warfare in the
is such rare occurrences that often grab global
Atlantic, with their torpedo-armed submarines
headlines. There are, however, two additional
preparing to attack any and all ships, including
metaphors worth considering—the ‘Black Jellyfish’
civilian passenger carriers, sighted in the war-zone
and the ‘Black Elephant’. The former refers to
waters. During the course of the war, by employing
issues that are well-known and comprehensible
U-boats on a large scale, they had used this force
but turn out to be complex and uncertain in the long
asymmetrically against the Americans and their
run, with a long tail and can deliver a nasty sting
allies. By the beginning of the Second World War,
at the end. The latter represents a cross between
however, the use of submarines became more
the ‘Black Swan’ and the ‘Elephant in the Room’,
widespread among major maritime combatants,
where the challenges are visible to everyone, but
thereby transforming a hitherto unconventional
no one feels compelled to deal with them. In other
threat into a conventional one. Hence, it is
words, they signify the blind spots that arise due
important to assess these threat landscapes,
to cognitive bias, powerful institutional forces,
consisting of these unseen Black Swans, seen
short-sightedness and failure (or unwillingness) to
Black Elephants and known Black Jellyfish.
read signals. An organisation’s inability to identify,
While globalisation has been the most progressive force in modern history,
While globalisation has been the most progressive force in modern history, it continues to raise several questions concerning the diffusion of wealth. With many citizens perceiving greater integration as being fraught with risk, there has been a recent spike in xenophobic, protectionist and nationalist rhetoric
it continues to raise several questions concerning the diffusion of wealth. With many citizens perceiving greater integration as being fraught with risk, there has been a recent spike in
xenophobic,
nationalist
protectionist
rhetoric.
and
Unfortunately,
the institutional capacities to manage
Tackling Unseen Black Swans, Seen Black Elephants and Known Black Jellyfish in India
such global issues have not kept pace with
the
burgeoning
complexities
of
modern society. Although international establishments
such
as
the
United
Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Health Organization and World Bank have arguably registered successes in the twentieth century, they have increasingly
Unless there is some form of accountability, a progressively expanding and unregulated information space can blur the difference between fact and opinion. This makes individuals more susceptible to misinformation as well as radicalisation
failed to adapt to evolving realities in recent years.
manipulate the human mind. As was recently
Meanwhile, at the national level, politicians and
observed in the context of the US elections, online
policy-makers have found it arduous to strike a
filter bubbles can polarise populations, erode
balance between the compulsions of domestic
trust in institutions, perpetuate uncertainty and
politics and the benefits of universal connectivity.
fuel grievances.
A failure of governance has contributed to
Therefore, the weaponisation of information
the proliferation of unconventional threats. As
through
observed by Maya Tudor, an Oxford scholar, the
should be actively resisted. Otherwise, it will
incapability of a state to meet the rising aspirations
provide opportunities for state and non-state
of its people in an inter-linked world can further
actors to deter and coerce adversaries in an
the rise of populism. When such populism fails, it
asymmetrical manner. Unless there is some
deteriorates into mobocracies and anarchies.
form of accountability, a progressively expanding
deep
fakes
and
disinformation
Rising income equalities, as measured
and unregulated information space can blur the
by the Gene coefficient, represents another
difference between fact and opinion. This makes
area of concern. Due to growing automation
individuals more susceptible to misinformation as
and ‘uberisation’ of the world, along with the
well as radicalisation. More broadly, the agility and
ascendancy of platform companies, wealth has
ultra high-speed networks of interacting smart
become concentrated in the hands of a few.
devices can be potentially exploited by malicious
While disparities between countries may have
actors, thereby posing substantial challenges
reduced, the inequalities within nation-states
from a societal, organisational and personal
have increased. Such a yawning gap between the
point of view.
haves and the have-nots of society is particularly
The poisoning of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
discernible in terms of income, wealth, education,
defence systems can also not be discounted.
social mobility, prosperity and political heft. If
As a growing number of security companies
left unchecked, this can be a veritable recipe
embrace AI for anticipating and detecting cyber-
for disaster.
attacks, Black Hat hackers may attempt to corrupt
The escalating cost of education is equally
these defences. Even though AI capabilities help
perturbing. As higher learning becomes more
to parse signals from noise, if they fall into the
expensive, and a large section of the population
hands of the wrong people, they can be leveraged
is deprived of its benefits, social media networks
to launch sophisticated assaults. Generative
find it easier to generate echo chambers and
adversarial networks (GANs) that pitch two neural
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Journal of the Harvard Club of India: India at 75
With respect to the future of biosecurity, India and the rest of the world must be prepared to deal with threats that emanate from a thawing of the permafrost
data breach have underscored the need to incessantly monitor threats from the deep and dark web, a vulnerability that the think tank had first reported in 2014. As early as in 2008, the Synergia Foundation
had
also
foreseen
that
networks against one another may be deployed to
pandemics would pose serious threats to national
determine the algorithms of such AI models.
security that goes beyond health. It had simulated
Finally, all governments need to account for
the impact of an avian flu attack to more than 300
the new classes of accidents and abuses that
policy-makers, business leaders and academics.
may
Eleven years later, this prognosis has now been
be
spawned
by
‘twenty-first century
technologies’. For the first time, the benefits
proven right.
of nanotechnology, robotics as well as genetic
With respect to the future of biosecurity, India
sciences are well within the reach of individuals
and the rest of the world must be prepared to
and small-scale actors. They are no longer
deal with threats that emanate from a thawing
required to build large facilities or acquire rare raw
of the permafrost. As global warming continues
materials to derive value from them. Knowledge
at an unprecedented rate and parts of the planet
alone can drive the application of such capabilities.
witness record-breaking heat waves, the Earth’s
In other words, it is important to acknowledge
ancient and forgotten pathogens, which have
that
weapons
of
mass
destruction
have
been trapped or preserved in the permafrost
been replaced by knowledge-enabled mass
for thousands of years, may re-emerge with
destruction. This destructive potential is further
new vigour. It is exceedingly important to
amplified by the power of self-replication.
ascertain such risks and devise strategies for
Against this backdrop, it is imperative that
countering them.
governments and other non-partisan think tanks
Building robust supply chains that are
undertake research that forewarns policy-makers
resilient to disruptive factors is yet another need
and the strategic community about predictable
of the hour. The downfall of Ericsson in the
surprises. In 2015, the Synergia Foundation, a
early 2000s, owing to its failure in proactively
Bengaluru-based strategic think tank, had analysed
managing supply chain risks, acts as a cautionary
the emerging hazards posed by the Internet of
tale today. Indeed, most of the successful tech
Things (IoT). Apart from examining the potential
behemoths, such as Apple, Google, Intel or Dell,
cyber threats for businesses and governments, it
have retained their value since the 1990s through
had formulated a framework for fostering dialogue
robust supply chain engineering. Drawing on
at a global level and understanding the impact of
these lessons from history, it is absolutely critical
digital threats to critical infrastructure and the
to work with relevant partners and bolster supply
IoT. With the recently discovered cyber-attacks
chain risk management in other sectors. By
such as SolarWinds in the US and RedEcho in
ideating about such unconventional threats and
India, the need for such research has been clearly
charting a roadmap for the future, a think tank
augmented. Even incidents such as the Juspay
can successfully transition into a ‘do tank’.
Tackling Unseen Black Swans, Seen Black Elephants and Known Black Jellyfish in India
Forging Ahead
collaboration. High-performing organisations and
At the end of the day, the rate of change and
should strive to devise complementary solutions.
the level of uncertainty are such that they may
The more valuable their contributions, the greater
outpace good governance. In light of this reality, it
their influence.
individuals, both in the public and private sector,
is critical for problem-solving networks to upgrade
To accomplish this vision, a novel approach
themselves by becoming more distributed and
that places strategic adaptability at its core
work in concert with each other.
will be required in the days to come. Resolving
Global governance is no longer about
the tension between foresight and inherent
individual leaders plotting their own course.
uncertainty is the holy grail strategy for thwarting
Rather, it entails a collation of some of the finest
unconventional threats. Any inert failure to predict
and most avant-garde thinking in contemporary
such risks can trigger chain reactions that unleash
societies,
catastrophic consequences.
which
replaces
competition
with
Tobby Simon is the Founder and President of the Synergia Foundation, a strategic think tank based in Bengaluru.
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