Insights August Edition

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EDITORIAL

Dear Friends:

Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

Synergia Foundation, along with the Centre for China and Globalisation, facilitated a dialogue between eminent experts from both sides to try to find a way around the impasse between India and China. The objective was to explore how we can overcome our differences and synergise our strengths toward global development and security initiatives. These discussions form the lead story of this issue.

The fallout of the Ukraine war continues to perplex the world. We try to give insight into the worsening energy situation in Europe and the myriad shades of Indo-Russian relations, which are now under fire due to the complexities arising from the conflict. Taiwan has also been in the news fuelling fresh fears of global contestations.

Africa remains a focus area for us. In this issue, we analyse the recently concluded Kenyan elections, the fading Arab Spring in Tunisia and the worsening situation in Central Africa due to regional and extra-regional meddling. In the Middle East, there are whispers of an “Arab NATO,” which we examine in this issue.

Technology remains our forte, and we have examined the dilemma of digitisation of democracy, ensuring ethics in the expanding use of Metaverse, the future of India’s Data Protection Bill and an article on Innovation by Mr Chas Bountra.

In addition, we have some insightful articles on subjects as varied as China’s President Xi Jinping, geopolitical cocktails of 2022, making capitalism more equitable and trying to second guess who will reside in 10 Downing Street after September 9th.

Last but not least, we showcase the pride of our Foundation, Synergia Biosciences, which has become one of the first Indian drug research companies to undertake end-to-end translational supply chain research on intranasal technology and to have patented it in five countries.

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

COVER STORY

COMPLEX ASIAN INTERDEPENDENCIES

3

MEDICAL WORLD ON INNOVATION

“ If people work together, the impossible can be achieved.’’

Prof. Chas Bountra, Pro Vice Chancellor for Innovation, University of Oxford

PAGE 11

GEO-POLITICAL COCKTAIL – 2022

2022 is turning out to be a watershed year with the world still reeling from the pandemic and war in Eastern Europe striking hard at its economic core.

PAGE 15

ASIA

MEDICAL WORLD

INTRANASAL, THE WAY FORWARD

Synergia Biosciences is one of the first Indian drug research companies to use end-to-end translational supply chain research on intranasal nanotechnology & to have patented it in five countries.

PAGE 13

GEOPOLITICS

ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE..

As we enter what promises to be a tough autumn, there are reasons to be cheerful or at least consider political and economic outcomes that are less bleak.

William John Emmott

The Editor-in-Chief The Economist newspaper from 1993 to 2006.

PAGE 18

STIRRING UP A HORNETS’ NEST

Ms Nancy Pelosi’s flying visit to Taiwan has left a diplomatic and military storm in its wake.

PAGE 21

DECONSTRUCTING

XI JINPING

Standing at the cusp of a historic third term, President Xi Jinping remains China’s best hope in its relentless march to global primacy

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EUROPE

THE TUSSLE FOR 10 DOWNING STREET

Written a month before the announcement of Ms Liz Truss as the new incumbent of 10 Downing Street, Lt Gen Simon Mayal’s SWOT analysis of both contenders came out with the correct result.

PAGE 31

AFRICA

CURSED BY ITS RICHES

AFRICA

LAST MAN STANDING

There is a silver lining; President Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Jomo Kenyatta, has obeyed the constitutional demand to stand down after two terms.

PAGE 33

Mediation efforts by the U.S. in Congo are yet another attempt to diffuse tension in a volatile and resource-rich region. PAGE 36 AFRICA

TRACES OF A BYGONE SPRING

The heady days of the Arab Spring are fading memories in the collective consciousness of Tunisia, plagued by political meanderings and economic woes. PAGE 38

MIDDLE EAST

DOES THE MIDDLE EAST NEED NATO 2.0?

An ‘Arab NATO’ has often been spoken about, but its actualisation is nothing short of a theological and political minefield. PAGE 40

ASIA

RUSSIAN CRUDE IN INDIA’S ENERGY MIX

Years of mutual investments under the wider shadow of a thriving strategic relationship have tied India’s oil sector to Russia with an umbilical cord hard to cut.

PAGE 26

GEOECONOMICS MAKING CAPITALISM WORK FOR EVERYONE

Can capitalism overcome its inherent trait of ‘survival of the fittest’ to become more equitable?

PAGE 42

SECURITY DANGEROUS LIAISONS

As long as mankind indulges in its natural urge to fight and kill, the business of illicit arms will thrive..

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TECHNOLOGY

THE DIGITAL DEMOCRACY DILEMMA

Democracy is forever evolving whenever faced with challenges; digitalisation could be a unique opportunity as well as a serious threat to contend with. PAGE 46

TECHNOLOGY

ETHICS IN THE METAVERSE

As the inevitability of the metaverse looms large, are we ethically prepared to live with it?

PAGE 49

TECHNOLOGY

A FRESH START

Privacy activists welcomed the withdrawal of a Bill that they claim still requires considerable public scrutiny and debate.

PAGE 51

EUROPE

A LONG, COLD WINTER AHEAD?

As winter inexorably draws closer, a war-weary Europe hunkers down to face it with expensive and dwindling energy supplies.

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THIS ARTICLE IS BASED ON A DIALOGUE BETWEEN EMINENT SPEAKERS FROM THE CENTER FOR CHINA AND GLOBALISATION AND THE SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

COMPLEX ASIAN INTERDEPENDENCIES

This article is based on a Dialogue between eminent speakers from the Center for China and Globalisation and the Synergia Foundation

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and border clashes in May 2020, China and In dia have entered a new phase of complex in terdependence and mistrust, but also deepening and diversifying cooperation.

While both Asian giants have cooperated at BRICS, G-20, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), among others, sharp irritants remain. These include India’s membership of the Quadrilateral Group, and recently the Indo-Pacific Eco nomic Forum, as well as the ban on Chinese Telecom giants. Simultaneously, China’s enhanced engagement in South Asia and existing border tensions have served to caution de cision makers in New Delhi.

However, amidst both these developments, Beijing and New Delhi’s firm stance against bloc politics in the Ukraine crisis, as well as the upcoming face-to-face meetings be tween President Xi and Prime Minister Modi, a new oppor tunity to revive the Wuhan spirit may be on the horizon.

A SHARED DESTINY

As Asia’s largest and most rapidly rising powers in contem porary global politics, relations between India and China are becoming ever more intertwined with each other. Both nations share a common history of civilisation, inclusive of viewing the colonial intervention in a negative light as they try to preserve and nurture their respective cultures and tra

Ambassador Gautam Bambawale, who served as the Indian Ambassador to China from 2017 to 2018, “The first step for trust building should be a credible military deescalation along our mutual borders- keeping a large number of forces in close proximity to each other is a recipe for disaster.”

ditions.

Despite many positive overlaps in relation, ties between In dia and China are strained by a host of negative elements. A series of attempts have been made by both parties to bridge differences and the matters are not only limited to the long standing territorial dispute. The differences have been fur ther intensified by more contemporary issues- - influence, power, hegemony and profit.

The events of April 2020 along the lofty Himalayan borders have breached some of the trust which was built up between India and China, starting as far back as 1976 and over the decades right up until 2020, including the spirit of Wuhan, and then Chennai.

REBUILDING TRUST

Trust can only be rebuilt, as India believes, by restoring the status quo on the Eastern Ladakh borders. India has not taken any predetermined steps to create the border situa tion that we are now facing. Trade continues between the countries as heretofore with 2021 seeing the highest level of

trade. Our leaders have been regularly meeting in fora like BRICS and SCO. India, on its part, has taken a very practical approach to relations despite the obvious defi cit in trust. This lack of trust can only be restored slowly through communication at all levels, while maintaining peace and tranquility at our mutual borders. It is on the ground that both sides have to inspire trust, with both militaries taking the lead.

With regards the current massing of troops on both sides of the un-demarcated border, some new measures must be thought out in terms of controlling aircraft movements and patrolling. The first step could be re ducing the troop numbers on the border. The encour aging part is that both sides, despite the numbers in volved, have not resorted to firing. This means that the complicated measures which were in place as part of the Confidence Building Measures (CBM) are still playing a positive role.

THE INDIAN OCEAN

There are other locations where India and China are confronting each other and adding to the lack of trust. The most prominent is the Indian Ocean, which as per the Chinese perspective India considers “India’s ocean”. This brings into focus the latest incident involving the entry of a Chinese ship (called a spy ship by India) into the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota.

The Indian Ocean is increasingly gaining importance for China, not to fight with India, but because of its central ity to China’s growing economic footprint in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). If India considers the Indian Ocean as its exclusive field of influence, then Indian interests would clash with Chinese interests. As per the Chinese, they have never objected to India’s territorial waters or EEZ; it is the U.S. which has openly challenged Indian claims to its EEZ.On India’s strategic partnership with the US., China expects India, as a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement, to maintain some kind of neutrality in the U.S.-China rivalry.

MAXIMISING THE SIMILARITIES

Dr Henry Huiyao Wang, President, Centre for China

India has not taken any predetermined steps to create the border situation that we are now facing. Trade continues between the countries as hitherto fore with 2021 seeing the highest level of trade. Our leaders have been regularly meeting in fora like BRICS and SCO.In dia, on its part, has taken a very prac tical approach to

Globalisation, acknowledging the past peaceful coex istence since the 1960s, says that while trying to reach a common understanding, both sides must “maximise the similarities and minimise the differences.” As two of the world’s largest and oldest civilisations, India and China share many similarities-after all, the famous Chi nese monk, Xuanzang, brought Buddhism to China from India after a hazardous journey that lasted seventeen years.

Today, globalization faces tremendous challenges, and in the last three decades, both India and China have gained from a global market. India and China, the two largest developing countries, should take advantage of their Asian civilisations to jointly contribute to the wis dom of the world and bring back the dynamics and sug gest viable solutions to the ongoing turmoil. There are many common grounds; China and India were the 2nd and 7th largest economies in the world last year, and within two decades, India is projected to climb to the number three spot. The huge potential of both countries can be harnessed to create the biggest market in the world for trade and investments.

For instance, China and India have built a strong partnership with AIB, and the largest recipient of AIB loans is India. India is also the co-founder of the New Development Bank, along with China among the BRICS countries. The two-way trade volume of the two coun tries has reached 1,256 billion, which amounts to a 43 per cent growth, year on year!Geopolitically, India and China share many international views and have similar objectives. An example being the peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, sustainable development of the emerging market, the building of a fair international order etc. The shared platforms of BRICS and SCO can be enlarged as both India and China are the principal stakeholders in both organisations. Both can also work in harmony in the UN and many other multilateral in stitutions.

Another sector that will bring the two nations closer together is people-to-people communications, especial ly student exchanges. This will help in building better understanding for the next generation.

the relations despite the obvious deficit in trust.

This lack of trust can only be restored slowly through communication at all levels while maintaining peace and tranquility at our mutual borders.

It is on the ground that both sides have to inspire trust, with both militaries showing the way. The first step for trust building should be a credible military de-escalation along our mutual borders- keeping a large number of forces in close proximity to each other is a recipe for disaster.”

AMBASSADOR GAUTAM BAMBAWALE, Former Indian Ambassador to China

MR RANJAN MATHAI, Former Foreign Secretary of India

On the recent Yuan Wang 5 In cident. The Chinese in tentions are not clear because these have not been spelt out. There are no reports in the public domain which may point to the direction of the research that the ‘Yuan Wang 5’, a space-tracking ship used to monitor satellites, rockets and intercontinental ballistic missile launches, is intended for. Of course, there was the debris from the Long March 5B rocket that crashed to earth over the Pacific last month, causing panic in the region.

The opacity over the visit of the Yuan Wang 5 could be deliberate. Last year some other Chinese “research” ves sels were found doing seabed mapping not far from the Andamans - without any notice to anyone. Refusal to give a rationale to littorals of the Indian Ocean demon strates to them, to the Quad etc, that the Chinese will continue to operate in the Indian Ocean despite their preoccupation with Taiwan, threats to Japan etc. They are demonstrating to India, that PLA is on our land bor ders, and PLA-N is near our shores; so, watch your steps.

To Sri Lanka (and particularly to President Ranil who gifted them the port in happier times) they are signalling that if Sri Lanka looks for Chinese support in the IMF for the release of a bailout package, it must play ball by Chi nese rules. It is as the former Chinese foreign minister said while addressing the Asian Regional Forum in 2010, “China is a big country and you are small countries, and that is a fact.”

Asia is going to be the epicenter in the next half a century and it is going to take the lead in the world economy. There’s every reason for both China and India to work together for the sake of the almost 3 billion people that we all have and for the region. China, never in the history of several thousand years, has colonised any place. I think we should trust that the culture of China is really seeking peace and co existence.

India is still growing very fast, at almost 8 per cent growth. That’s admirable in such a pandemic time. Also, India is very young, with an average age of around 20 years; for China, this is around 40 years. There are enor mous opportunities to work together in the common in terest of almost 3 billion people.India is well known for its non-alignment movement and for not taking sides. And that has been a long tradition. So, we hope that In

On India’s trade with China. India is indeed in a trade trap, because of our dependence on lower priced Chi nese imports; and crucially because of the nature of our import basket. Big chunks of the trade deficit is caused by power projects/machinery, our much-touted solar energy plants, batteries for EVs, APIs for pharma ex ports etc.

We can do without cheap Chinese toys, but any cut-off of the big items will cause serious disruptions. And even the cheap toys etc provide big margins for our tradersand you know they are part of the political economy. Occasional anti-dumping duties have not stopped the game. The building of Atmanirbhar India has to be a public-private partnership. Only the government can create conditions for that. Meanwhile China continues to blithely use NTBs to impede our market access.

On the Way Forward. There are ways out of the Catch 22 situation that India may find itself, and some are being tried. But it is a long haul. We will also need to use NTBs etc and demonstrate some political will in taking on ad dicted domestic lobbies. Energy, pharma and a few oth ers are where we should start. The so-called alternatives (supply chain diversity; IPEF etc) can be tried out, but at the end of the day we have to do what China did in the 1990s; and in an environment in which growth via global markets is not a big opportunity anymore.

We need to understand clearly that the Chinese con cept of “ win-win cooperation” is what Lord Cornwallis called the Subsidiary Alliance System. Some of our 1819th Century predecessors fell for it. An informed Indi an public should not.

To counter China robustly, India must increase its de fence expenditure to 3 per cent of GDP with emphasis on domestic procurement- get the full complement of 120 Dassault Rafales and build upon a credible Mountain Strike Corps. These are some steps which are manage able, but at a cost to our economic growth.

dia can continue to do that. Let’s make the BRICS and the SCO some kind of free trade arrangement; India and China can both take some lead on that. I think we should have FTA between our two countries and also address the imbalance that we’re having. Let’s really think about big pictures, think about big directions, think about the region and the pros perity of the world.There should be no decoupling of economies on the grounds of geopolitical disputes.

India and China can work towards strengthening globalisation by partnering in infrastructure de velopment, urbanization, dig ital economy, service sector and e-commerce.

DR HENRY HUIYAO WANG, President, Center for China Globalisation

PROFESSOR QIAN FENG,

Director of Research Department and Senior Fellow at the National Strategy Institute, Beijing.

When we talk about India-China relations nowadays, the conflict in 2020 is something that the government worked very hard to avoid. Before the outbreak of the con flict, the development trends of China and relations were very posi tive and upward; the two informal summits were very ground-breaking, both internationally and bilaterally.

The conflict has only aggravated a complicated situation in both countries and damaged mutual political trust se riously. Also, the public opinion between China and In dia that had been built up over years of efforts lay ruined. Looking back at the last two years, India-China relations are perhaps the worst in more than three decades.

First, the lack of strategic mutual trust and second, the lack of forward momentum, and the third is top-level interactions. Take high level interactions, for example; Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping have offi cially met five times and attended meetings 16 times all over the world in the last two years, but they have not met face-to-face as individuals.

Indian Foreign Minister, Mr Jaishankar, believes that India-China relations should abide by the three mutual ities- mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual in terest. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also put forward the proposals and principles for developing our parallel relations from a long-term perspective, viewing

Complex interdependence in international re lations and international political economy is a concept put forth by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye in the 1970s to describe the emerging nature of the global political economy.

One of the fundamental aspects of economic interde pendence includes trading with each other, investing in each other and interacting with each other in peo ple-to-people contacts, tourism and so on. And this leads to a kind of understanding between the two, in other words enhancing trust. And that influences the political leadership to avoid security-related problems.

The globalisation process would lead to an under standing that we avoid war, conflict, and disturbances in the system. Liberal institutionalists’ influence has spread especially in the last two to three decades, and this has been one of the key moments in history in re cent times. This has given rise to terms like foreign di

our mutual development for a win- win situation and to participate in the multilateral process with a cooperative attitude.

Over the past two years, the conflicts in the bination al relationships masked the constituency between the two countries in international cooperation.

Since this year, the sharp changes in the international situations have objectively brought opportunities for the implementation of greater cooperation.

Now there are some positive signs. The borders should remain stable, and diplomatic interactions and trade exchanges must increase. We should passionately work towards stabilizing China-India relations step by step and then continue to think about how to develop bilateral relations.

Last year, India and China bucked the trend by reach ing the historic high of 43 per cent in mutual trade. From China’s side, India’s existence cannot be ignored, wheth er in our labor, food security and stability for strategic gains.

During the past 2000 years of bilateral exchanges, peace and friendship have been the highest - 99 per cent of the time it has been friendship and conflict only one per cent. Even the 1962 border conflict eventually turned into a source of mutual projects. We, scholars and think ers, should not only focus on differences and ignore co operation.

We have the opportunity to find solutions to mutu al satisfaction and serve common interests, and reserve differences. Meanwhile, both governments need to han dle the bilateral relations with larger minds as emerging big powers. The size of our big countries lies not only in their geography but also in their broad mind and pattern.

rect investment, tariff reductions, most favoured nation treatment etc. And that’s where the economic interde pendence and people-to-people contact, meaning tour ism, would be substantially increased.

The informal summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi at Wuhan and Chennai should have led to a lot of interdependence. Let me argue that India-Chi na interdependence has been very constricted for vari ous reasons.

In India, the ease of doing business has increased by three times. We jumped up the scale, and FDI in In dia has increased substantially. In fact, last two to three years, foreign direct investment has increased to nearly third position in the global ranking on FDI flows.

Secondly, exports have increased in the last two years, and we have launched several campaigns like Dig ital India, Skill India and Atmanirbhar campaign, which

supports self-sufficiency.

China also has many of these programmes already put in place. But specific reforms included supply-side eco nomic reforms and, of course, domestic consumption under the 13th and 14th Five Year Plans. India extended the MFN status to China in 1984, and a double taxation agreement was signed in 1994. The Bangkok Agreement has also been accepted, reducing tariffs. In all these, we enhance the economic interdependence, at least in state ments.

We only have a restricted economic interdependence between China and India. For example, we have the spe cial economic dialogues conducted between the NDRC in China and the Niti Ayog, (Planning Commission earli er) and financial dialogue, an Iron and Steel dialogue and Renminbi Rupee exchange or an understanding between the two. In the BRICS, we tried to do the local currency exchange, which has now become more intensified. So, with all this, trade increased substantially.

But what India has realized is that the trade is skewed in China’s favor, and China has shown restrictions on the entry of Indian products like IT software, pharma ceuticals, or other products. So, whatever be the Chinese story or reason about this, there is an asymmetric inter dependence, and increasingly there are calls within India that we lost $1.2 trillion in trade deficits. India has not yet initiated any tariff wars.

But there is serious thinking in India that the asym metric interdependence is in favor of China, not in favor of India. So, the next steps would obviously be the de coupling process, which has intensified with the Galwan crisis in June 2020. And that is where geopolitics comes in, in economic interdependence.

The third aspect of economic interdependence is in vestments. Now, for a $17 trillion GDP country like Chi na, the total Chinese investments in India are $8.2 bil lion; Chinese investments in Pakistan are $52 billion. But for a country which is growing at 8 per cent this year, the total Chinese investment is $8.2billion.

Investments have not really gone up by China, al though it is the second largest economy in the world. India did not join the RCEP primarily because China did not abide by the guiding principles of comprehen sive, balanced and equitable distribution in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Format, especial ly on equity and balance in trade, in components, tariffs, and finally on the impact on livelihood. This is an issue

that, during the 1980s, China raised, but today it is si lent. Also, in terms of the tariff differential charges and customs duties and the federal character of the Indian system in terms of investments, India did not join the RCEP.

Let me also touch upon why economic interdepen dence is problematic with China. For instance, China banned rare metals to Japan, although China and Ja pan have intensive economic interdependence in many fields. Of course, it created opportunities for India to export rare metals to Japan and Japan-India relations improved.

We have also seen China weaponise its tourist out flow to punish countries like South Korea and Taiwan. India too put restrictions on Chinese corporations like Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo etc., because they laundered $ 3.7 billion to China and other destinations.

Economic interdependence comes with, of course, the rule of law and other aspects. The visit of the ship Yuan Wang 5 is an example. India has genuine concerns about this because it is going to track the whole of the Indian Ocean region- it is not a tourist boat but a mili tary vessel with dual-use technologies under the PLA’s Strategic Support Force. India has concerns about the Indian Ocean too. If China should come to the Indian Ocean in diplomacy, there should be reciprocity; Indian incursions into the South China Sea by dual use Indian ships should be acceptable to China.

We have seen China behaving in the same manner when it comes to the rare earth metals, the card system, now Taiwan, the military exercises and others that it had mobilized. So we also have similar concerns when it comes to the state-to-state relations.

But please remember India supported China in the WTO, and India supported China on the climate change issues in G 20 and in various other fora. Coexistence and interdependence is a two-way flow. And India suggests that first, as Dr Jaishankar mentioned, unless and until peace and tranquility prevails on the border, we will not have bilateral relations expanded. If China wants eco nomic interdependence to be increased, I think China needs to follow those rules of the game as well.

DR SHRIKANT KONDAPALLI,

A professor in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, an Honorary fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi and a Research Associate at the Center for Chinese Studies

LT GEN PJS PANNU(RETD)

Former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff

In the absence of a permanent settlement, defence/ border guarding forces of both sides have had the onerous task of defending the un de fined borders. What could not be settled at the negotiat ing table found an outlet resulting in increased military clashes on the frontiers. There is a belief in India that China is inten tionally keeping the boundary issue open with India and Bhutan while she has amicably settled its borders with 12 other neighbors. This Chinese stratagem has been at play to coerce India into accepting Chinese hegemony in South Asia and deny India any claim or hope to be a regional power. The situation led to clashes in Galwan in Eastern Ladakh bringing both nations to the brink of war.

In 2020, China was largely seen as a revisionist pow er that carried a distinct threat. India has been at the forefront defending its northern borders not allowing Chinese to have a free run, drawing attention and re spect globally. The world is now watching how Ukraine, Russia and the western powers are pinning their hopes on India to balance out global equations. Lately, Chi nese military demonstrations against Taiwan have been rather aggressive.

India has been drawn into making choices to either align with the west or cozy up to regional Asian powers such as China and Russia. The World blames India for following a policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ and for not taking a firm position. To face these challenges India has to punch her weight. There is no option for India to build its Comprehensive National Power (CNP) with distinct military capability; India must develop a defi nite deterrence matrix for China to agree to de-escalate and disengage from our Northern borders mostly in Eastern Ladakh.

I always get confused between opportunities and threats because if you look at a threat differently, it can actually be an opportuni ty. And if you look at an opportunity differently, it can be a threat.For almost 75 years both countries have not been able to resolve the border issue. There have been a lot of diplomatic efforts but none of the solutions have really succeeded in solving the border problem to every one’s satisfaction. Could it be that the solutions being proposed are very difficult to be accepted by our leaders, and our leaders know in their wisdom would be accept able to their people?

Going by the game theory, if I convert this particular

What leaders can achieve, no one else can. Meeting of Xi Jinping and Mr Modi in the forthcoming SCO and later G-20 is an opportunity to settle the matter or work in that direction. These steps can be taken provided both leaders see each other with respect and do not under mine each other. On the positive side, what all leaders can achieve is to make borders irrelevant. Once achieved, any ‘give or take’ option must be seriously viewed on ‘asis-where-is’ basis – status quo ante.

While the boundary disputes continue to shape the narrative between two countries, the question comes up on whether India should shut trade with China. During the Financial Year 2022, India’s trade deficit with Chi na was recorded at $72.9 billion, up nearly $29 billion from 2021’s figure of $44 billion. After falling in 2020-21, India’s trade deficit with China widened in 2021-22 and continues to do so in 2022-23.

Even though India has banned import of many soft ware products such as computer applications from Chi na, the trade volume of imported goods from China is constantly going up. There is an increasing trend among Indians demanding “boycott of Chinese goods”. The re ality hidden in this fact is that even if we stop trading with China today, it will not dent the exports of China much, in fact, India shall lose the Chinese market, which, though restricted, provides for about $21 billion of ex ports. On the other hand, we are totally dependent on China for some very essential goods like rare earth ma terials where China has a worldwide monopoly in tele communication hardware including cell phones. The only solution to this problem is that India must become self-sufficient in manufacturing, and we should find al ternative sources of essential materials.

India and China are two biggest markets in the world. To that extent both countries are equals, however, there are distinct differences that make them unequal such as the size of economy and the industrial capacities. Should the gap between two economies reduce, both would still have interdependencies dictated with the sheer size of markets. In the real world one seldom shuts the shop completely, however, trade leverages would always be used as a strategy. India must create options for trade so that she can make choices when it comes to using trade as a weapon.

situation into a game where we have a Chinese team and an Indian team. And the Chinese team has made a map which encompasses some areas which are under the oc cupation of India, and it encompasses some areas which are claimed by India; and India has made a map and said, this is our area. It includes some areas which are under the occupation of China and includes some areas which are claimed by China. How do you resolve this problem in game theory?

Many solutions are possible, but one set of solutions is called win-lose solutions. Someone’s win and some one’s loss. And I think the solutions which we are pre senting on the border are win-lose-“let’s give up this and

let’s take this”. So, it is easy for our leaders to say let’s maintain the status quo. And that’s what’s happened for 75 years. Obviously, we’re not coming up with imagina tive solutions which can be presented as win-win to our leaders. Is it possible to provide a win-win solution to this? And I think in game theory, win-win solutions are possible. In the boundary dispute along the LAC, there are areas of differing perceptions and there are areas of dispute. Can we say that areas of differing perceptions and areas of dispute could be put under the joint admin istration of India and China? And therefore, when we do produce a map of the border area, no one has to lose ter ritory, and no one’s map has to change. It can be added to both countries. Easier said than done. Is it possible

in that in the first stage we select one disputed area, we delineate it on a map, we demarcate it on the ground, we appoint a joint administrative authority with India and China then we withdraw the army outside the disputed area? If we do it in one place and we build confidence, maybe we can build it somewhere else and, in the process, may be we have a different approach to this prob lem.

MAJOR GENERAL MONI CHANDI (RETD),

CSO at Synergia Foundation

COLONEL ZHOU BO,

A Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy, Beijing.

On the Border Faceoff. While China is being taken by the United States as a primary com petitor, China is not going to the top of the mountains, trekking along the mountain; there is no need whatso ever for China to suddenly focus on India in such a way as an attack. So it doesn’t make any sense. Therefore, both sides must come together to solve the border dis pute amicably.

Both sides have their peculiar considerations and po litical pressures, which make a solution to the border dispute difficult. But we had peacefully managed our borders since we jointly crafted the complex border confidence measures in 2003. I would say with confi dence that all the confidence-building measures be tween China and India are actually more than China’s confidence measures with any other countries.

On the recent Yuan Wang 5 Incident. And you would just use your strengths, or make use of the difficult time of Sri Lanka, to not let the Chinese ship stay there for a while for replenishment. And you did this before when a Chinese submarine docked at Sri Lanka.

On the Centrality of the Indian Ocean. There are probably about a million Chinese working the inland Indian Ocean, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative goes in that direction. That means we’ll have more interest in the Indian Ocean and beyond the Indian Ocean rather than in the Southern Pacific. So that means that Chi na’s cooperation with this country

(Sri Lanka), this small country in the Indian Ocean, will certainly grow. And that means, for us to secure this in terest, we have to make sure that we have a kind of capa bility to protect these interests.

QGlobal Times : China and India need to work hard to repair the trust after the incident at the border in 2020. Could you give us some examples where the two countries can work together? And do you think India will cooperate with the US’s In do-Pacific strategy to increase its military presence at the border to contain China?

Ambassador Gautam Bambawale: (India will coop erate) With the United States, with Japan, with France, with Germany, with the UK.

But the reason why we are doing this is that China has been very aggressive, not just in the South China Sea and the Indi an Ocean but also on the India-China bor der. I think it is natural that Chinese actions in 2020 have actually driven India into the arms of the United States. And hence, I would blame Chinese decisions, including military decisions, for this fact. The simplest way to build trust between India and China will be to restore the status quo ante in the western sector of the India-China border. Please restore the status quo as it existed before April of 2020. And I think that it will be a very good confidence-building measure between the two countries.

And finally, on the question of the Quad and working with the United States, I think I have already made myself very clear. I think it is China’s aggression and aggressive activities in the South China Sea, on the In dia-China border near and around the Senkaku Islands which is leading many of us in the world to believe that the rise of China may not be so peaceful.

China will have to do something about that for the rest of the world to believe that the rise of China is indeed going to be peaceful.

HYDRAULICS

AEROSPACE

AUTOMOTIVE & METALLURGY

MEDICAL

ON INNOVATION

“ If people work together, the impossible can be achieved.’’

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

This article is based on a discussion between Mr Tobby Simon, President & Founder Synergia Foundation with Prof. Chas Bountra, Pro Vice Chancellor for Innovation, University of Oxford, UK.

Innovation needs a combination of factors; it obviously needs great talent and great leaders, entrepreneurs, and ambitious people with big ideas. Innovations do not emerge from incremental research but from truly transformative thinking.

ESSENTIALS FOR INNOVATION

Big innovations must be supported by great partner ships with external stakeholders and external parties. A critical mass is needed to turn ideas into innovations, and this needs sufficient funding. When all these factors come together in one homogenous mass, it will create new plat forms, new technologies, and new ideas. These will invari ably lead to solutions for prominent global problems that have persisted for decades, if not centuries, and thus im prove the lives of people all over the globe.

These experiences can be explained by events that have recently occurred at Oxford University. The two most im pactful stories that have come out of Oxford University, could be the biggest achievement in the past several de cades. One was the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine, and the other was the recovery trial.

CO-OPERATIVE RESEARCH

Two years ago, senior academics at The Oxford Univer sity convened with leading experts like Adrian Hill (Director of the Jenner Institute at Oxford University and a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator, Professor of Human Genetics and

Big innovations must be supported by great partnerships with external stakeholders and external parties. A critical mass is needed to turn ideas into innovations, and this needs sufficient funding. When all these factors come together in one homogenous mass, it will create new platforms, new technologies, and new essays. These will invariably lead to solutions for big global problems that have persisted for decades, if not centuries, and thus improve the lives of people all over the globe.

an NIHR Senior Investigator) and Sarah Gilbert (Professor of Vaccinology at the University of Oxford and the Oxford Project Lead for the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine project). Both are part of Vaccitech, a spin-out company from the University of Oxford’s Jenner Institute, one of the most prestigious vaccine research centres in the world. Also included in the consultations were other researchers at the University, regulators, government officials and multiple funders. The agenda was to produce an effective vaccine against COVID -19 as quickly as possible to rescue the plan et from its clutches. Rest is history; within a space of nine months, a vaccine was created, a process that under normal circumstances would have taken close to nine years.

If people work together, the impossible can be achieved. All the ingredients mentioned above for a successful innova tion were present in this exercise- a great idea, great talent, experts in mass production of vaccines etc. A partnership was cobbled together between, regulators, the government, and funding entities. Once critical mass had been reached, with adequate funding and a platform created, success was

inevitable. To be fair, Adrian Hill and Sarah Gilbert have nearly three-decade-long experience in vaccine creation, so much of the necessary infrastructure for mass production was already in place. The AstraZeneca vaccine has now been injected into more than 3 billion arms (with its Indian version called Covishield account ing for nearly 80 per cent of the doses given to adults so far).

The second example concerns the recovery trial. Two brilliant clinician scientists, Martin Landry and Pe ter Horby also had big ideas. When COVID 19 struck two years ago, there was no treatment for it. They want ed to see if existing drugs were effective in COVID pa tients. Painstakingly, they accessed the sources of the National Health Service in the UK, working with a lot of clinicians and conducting clinical trials involving tens of thousands of patients.

Within a relatively short space of time, they were able to demonstrate that hydroxychloroquine, the an timalarial drug, was completely ineffective. Dexameth asone, a cheap, generic anti-inflammatory drug, was effective. And that finding alone has probably already saved more than a million lives across the planet.Then they showed that the antiviral lopinavir, had no clinical benefit. And then, most recently, that tocilizumab was effective in patients that required oxygen and had sig nificant inflammation. So, again, here’s another exam ple of great talent coming together, forming a big idea, and creating partnerships with the National Health Ser vice.

They had massive critical mass, abundant resources, and exclusive expertise. The platform they were using was the patient resources within the NHS. Consequent ly of course, they came up with solutions for a big global problem and had a massive impact all over the world.

Today the world is facing enormous challenges. In the UK, the population is about 70 million, and every year, about 350,000 people are diagnosed with cancer. That’s 1000 people every day. That’s one person every 90 seconds. And half of us, during our lifetime, are going to be diagnosed with cancer. Alzheimer’s is a massive problem in the UK. The UK has 850,000 people with dementia, and for all of us who live more than 80, one in six of us will get it.

The average cost of looking after these dementia pa tients in the UK is about £32,000 a year. So, it’s costing the taxpayer close to £26 billion every year just to look after dementia patients. The drug that was approved last year by Biogen, should not have been approved; it does

not have demonstrable efficacy. There has not been a novel drug for Alzheimer’s since 2002, and we desper ately need treatments that are going to slow down the progression of that disease.

RISING NUMBERS OF SICK

Mental health is a massive issue. It was a massive issue before the pandemic; it’s become an even bigger issue as we come out of the pandemic. It is estimated that 20 per cent of adults in Europe have some sort of depressive episode during their lifetime. The number of mental health conditions in Europe is around 83 mil lion. Across the world, we’ve now got aging societies.

It’s estimated that in the UK, the number of pen sioners suffering from diabetes is going to go up 180 per cent in the next two decades. So, a tripling in the next two decades, there’s going to be a 120 per cent increase in cancer patients. So again, more than a doubling.An other worrying occurrence is antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Over 7000 patients are dying every year be cause they’re resistant to existing antibiotics. And that number is estimated to be about 10 million by 2050.

Rare diseases across the world, in aggregate, is about 350,000,000 patients with rare conditions. Half of those children will not reach the age of five, and it can take six to eight years to get a diagnosis. The tragic fact is that 95 per cent of those patients have no FDA-ap proved treatment. So these are staggering figures in healthcare.

In drug discovery, in particular, of course, there are massive challenges. Getting drugs into the brain is a massive challenge. Another challenge, of course, is ad verse events and side effects. Often, what we’ve done in the clinic to try and get sufficient amounts into the brain, we’ve given higher systemic doses to try and get sufficient concentrations in the brain. And that has led to more systemic side effects. Because of some of these challenges, the pharma industry at the start of this cen tury started to pull out of neuropsychiatric conditions and neuropsychiatric research. And it’s not surprising because, frankly, it’s just too difficult. The animal mod els are not very good.

All of these create massive challenges for mankind; we have not started talking about climate emergencies yet! All these are global challenges, and they require great talent, great leaders, great innovators, and great entrepreneurs. We need to create new platforms, and that’s the only way we’re going to come up with solu tions to big global problems and make the planet a bet ter place.

We need ambitious people with big ideas; not incremental research, but truly transformative ideas.

DR. CHAS BOUNTRA Pro Vice Chancellor of Innovation, University of Oxford

INTRANASAL, THE WAY FORWARD

Synergia Biosciences ‘(SBS)’ is one of the first Indian drug research companies to use end-to-end translational supply chain research to develop and patent an intranasal nano-technology platform.

In the last 15 years, very few new chemical enti ties have been added to the Indian market. The increased costs of launching a new drug into the market and the time associated with its inception have conceived a lot of sceptics.

Combining our trusted network spanning the globe along with intelligence and the best of applied science , Synergia Biosciences has become one of the first Indian companies to undertake end-to-end translational research using supply chain engineering and has received four inter national patents.

We have used supply chain engineering as a vector in the drug development process to significantly reduce costs, a critical need for a country like India.

In the past, multiple strategic industries have successful ly used supply chain engineering for cutting-edge research and product development, including space, telecommuni cations, electronics, and semiconductors.The traditional mode of drug delivery is fragmented and has not kept pace with patient demands.

One of the main challenges of the industry is being able to manage risk without restricting innovation. Considering Eroom’s Law (an inversion of Moore’s Law) which states that the cost of developing a new drug has increased expo nentially in the last several decades despite technological improvements, Synergia Biosciences has leveraged the po tential of supply chain research within the pharmaceutical

Advancements in the pharmaceutical industry are now limited by Eroom’s law, which supposes that the cost of developing a new drug has significantly increased , despite corresponding advancements in technology.

industry. The reality of advancements in the pharmaceutical industry is being thwarted because of a phenomenon follow ing Eroom’s law, which predicts that the cost of developing a new drug has escalated in the past, despite advancements in technology.

To counter this, we incorporated supply-chain engineer ing ideals in the platform’s development.

SBS has developed and patented an innovative na no-emulsion platform for enhanced targeted drug delivery that allows for: Rapid absorption (< 5 minutes), increased bioavailability, enhanced stability, broad applicability, re duced side-effects, and it is non-invasive.

The platform has an extremely vast range, and its broad applications can be seen in a multitude of diseases. The plat form has received 20-year patents from the US, Japan, India, and Europe.

SBS Platform has been tested and proved to have im proved PK with drugs falling in the classes of: Antipsychotic, Antiemetic, Analgesic, Antipyretic, Anti-inflammatory.The scope and applications of the platform are wide-ranging and include:

RESEARCH TEAM

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

DR. RAGHUNATH ANANT MASHELKAR

Former Director General of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.

There is an urgent need to create an inclusive, and not an exclusive society. And the work that has been done by the Syner gia team has been absolutely incredible, in terms of the affordable drug delivery and the innovative nano plat forms that have been created. The result of consistent pursuit from 1991 to accelerate inclusive growth is really fascinating.

DR. B.L.V PRASAD, Director of Center for Nano and Soft Matter Sciences

Intranasal platforms have many advantages and best wishes to the Synergia Team. We look forward to working together to make this platform more robust and expand its scope for a wider variety of drugs, vac cines, and other delivery agents.

DR.KOMAL PRASAD, Neurosurgeon

I congratulate Tobby and team for this innovative mode of drug delivery. As a neurosurgeon, I understand the importance of this innovation.

There are multiple use cases – chemothera py-induced nausea, pregnancy, travel sickness, sea sickness, and many others. One would not want to take an oral tablet when you are already nau seated. Another use case of this platform is in the field of vaccines. Since the outbreak of the COVID pandemic in 2020, we have been foreseeing the nasal vaccine as the most effective way forward. Intranasal immuniza tion is an excellent substitute for parenteral vaccines, as it avoids the use of needles and is easy to administer. It also stimulates both mucosal and systemic immuni ty, which gives better protection. In comparison to the Intra Muscular (IM) Vaccine, which only produces IgM & IgG antibodies, the intranasal vaccine produces all

INTRANASAL, THE WAY FORWARD

THE SYNERGIA STORY

Synergia Biosciences is a unique biopharmaceutical incubator with more than two decades of experience in innovation, incubation, and manufacturing in do mestic and international markets. Since its inception in the early nineties, Synergia has worked on several projects to secure supply chains and build traceability and affordability of pharmaceutical products through research and innovation.Working with Nobel Prize Winner Medicines Sans Frontier (MSF) for a decade, Synergia helped build affordable treatment paradigms globally for AIDS, Malaria, and Tuberculosis. This pro bono effort has saved the lives of more than a hundred million people living in Africa, South America, Asia, and the CIS.

DR. CHAS BOUNTRA

Pro Vice Chancellor of Innovation, University of Oxford

The team at Synergia are great entrepreneurs, innovators, and leaders. They have big ideas and have al ready formed partnerships. They have created a new platform and the potential of that platform in many diseases is enormous. So, I am excited to see what Syn ergia Biosciences has planned for in the future.

DR. TASLIMARIF SAYID Director of C-CAMP

I would love to see how C-CAMP could support it and take it to the next level. We have sev eral components of the ecosystem playing, including the regulatory which is important. We look forward to working together.

PROF. SATYAJIT MAYOR, Director of NCBS

It’s very exciting to know that there is such a technology that could make drug delivery through the nasal route stabilized and available.

three antibodies: mucosal IgA antibody and systemic IgM & IgG antibodies. These antibodies ensure imme diate and long-term immunity. Another one of its many applications is in the field of migraine & cluster head aches. We have stabilised the most challenging drug to cure Cluster headaches. Currently, the marketed drug is lyophilized (the solid and liquid are separated & mixed just before the administration). By nature, the drug is so sensitive that it de grades quickly if exposed to air or water. I take pride in saying that Synergia Biosci ences is the first entity to stabilise this drug in a liquid nano emulsion form to cure cluster headaches and migraine.

SAMBRATHA SHETTY, Chief Operating Officer, Synergia Biosciences

GEO-POLITICAL COCKTAIL – 2022

2022 is turning out to be a watershed year with the world still reeling from the pandemic and war in Eastern Europe striking hard at its economic core.

Maj. Gen. Moni Chandi is the CSO at Synergia Foundation & a former Inspector General of the elite Na tional Security Guard.

According to the economic analysis of UN (De partment of Economic & Social Affairs), from the start of the pandemic, the central banks of Japan, UK, US and the Euro Area alone have added US$ 10.2T in security assets, primarily to support na tional QE (Quantitative Easing) programs. QE refers to the unconventional monetary policy, adopted by central banks, to increase money supply & to reduce interest rates, by buying government securities. In the US, the Federal Reserve provided liquidity to the US government by buying US government securities, and similar actions were undertaken by the central banks of other countries, essentially to provide re sources to hard-pressed governments.

However, in 2022, two years after the pandemic-caused lockdowns forced governments across the world to under take extraordinary medical & economic measures, those same governments are now struggling to return economic prosperity to their people. Economic recovery has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated. Governments need to control inflation, caused fundamentally by the in creased money supply (QE), to support the extraordinary measures taken during the pandemic. Academically, central banks need to now reduce liquidity by open market opera tions involving the selling of government bonds, increasing interest rates and statutory reserve requirements. In prac tice, such measures also need to be moderated to sustain

With President Joe Biden’s unequivocal declaration that the US would NOT deploy troops in Ukraine, the US State Department went overboard in making nation states commit to taking sides. Thus, four camps were established; Pro-Ukraine, Pro-Russia, Neutral and Fence-sitters. While many countries like India were genuinely neutral to the conflict, ‘fence-sitters’ vocally demonstrated support for Ukraine while they actually maintained significant trade relations with Russia.

the economic environment and prevent economic hardship to citizens. Herein lies the challenge and many nation-states appear to be burning the candle from both ends, vitiating both the economic environment and causing hardships to their people.

Recently, we witnessed an economic collapse in Sri Lan ka, resulting in the powerful Rajapaksa Family fleeing the country. Many other countries across the world are on the brink of a similar collapse. In South Asia itself, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, with depleting foreign exchange reserves, are in danger of international default & further devaluation of their currencies. Argentina, Belarus, Ecua dor, Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, Albania and Panama, amongst others, are also in danger of joining Venezuela, Lebanon and North Korea, who were already (before the

pandemic) in dire straits.

Inflation is also unforgiving to governments, partic ularly democratically elected governments. In the US, President Donald Trump was unable to secure a second term. In the UK & Italy, PMs Boris Johnson & Mario Draghi were unceremoniously unseated. In France, al though President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected, his party lost the majority in parliament. Governments in Estonia and Bulgaria have also lost no-confidence mo tions.

THE 1ST PRINCIPLE OF INTERNATIONAL RE LATIONS

The first principle of international relations is, ‘there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, just permanent interests’. In the economic crisis of 2022, prudent countries have prioritised their national interests. India’s eloquent Foreign Minister S Jaishan kar explained India’s self-interest in NOT condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in return for the purchase of Russian oil, at discounted prices. President Joe Biden preserved US self-interest by categorically refusing to commit US troops in Ukraine and Taiwan, while provid ing US arms & diplomatic support to both threatened regimes.

However, many European countries find themselves at odds with their national interests; while they sanc tion Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, they continue to depend on Russian oil & natural gas imports. So far, it appears that President Vladimir Putin has successfully protected Russian national interests. He found alterna tive markets for Russian oil & natural gas and, despite economic sanctions, preserved both his country’s for eign exchange reserves and the value of the Russian Rouble. On the other hand, European countries appear to be suffering the consequences of their own economic sanctions, with gas shortages and unprecedented infla tion! This dichotomy in preserving European national self-interests is perhaps the reason for European gov ernments falling like ninepins (five and counting; Spain & Poland also go to elections in the near future). Did the European Parliament blunder in NOT recognising their national interests?

IS IT THE LAST HURRAH FOR THE US DOL LAR?

Since the world wars of the 20th Century, the US has dominated the planet as a superpower. However, the American star is in decline, and the Chinese Dragon is restless to don a new leadership role. The US dollar has remained the world’s foremost international cur rency, and, despite the decline, it is likely to remain so for the immediate future. The mighty dollar sustains US overseas military deployments & operations. However, it has been demonstrated repeatedly, in the 21st Centu ry, that power projection cannot be sustained, through money alone (US reversals in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya).

Does an expensive dollar actually work for US na

tional interests? The US dollar’s strong valuation makes imports cheap and renders US domestic pro duction uncompetitive. The downside of a strong cur rency is that it not only makes imports relatively cheap but exports un-competitively expensive. Thus, the US has been crowded out by global competition, from the manufacture of many goods & services, with some ex ceptions; high-end weapon systems, high-end civil air craft, expensive college education and research & de velopment, amongst few others. A cheaper US dollar may actually revive the US domestic industry and par tially fulfil Donald Trump’s election promise for more jobs & making America great again! On the other hand, the expensive dollar has also made the U.S., the largest importer-nation in the world, with a staggering & un precedented federal debit of US$ 28.4T!

The cost of America’s military failures is underwrit ten by US taxpayers. However, such failures also ex tract a considerable human & economic cost from local communities. Successive military failures in Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan have undermined US diplomatic credibility and earned the US the reputation of being an untrustworthy partner. A weaker U.S. dollar should also reduce the risk of more US misadventures.

The US dollar’s strong valuation is sustained by international demand for the green-back and the lack of viable alternatives. As a consequence of economic sanctions in the Ukraine War, Russia, PRC, Saudi Arabia and India have created alternatives to the Petro-dollar (the use of US dollar for petroleum trade). Will these unprecedented & deliberate initiatives reduce the hith erto-fore, insatiable global demand for the US dollar?

THE UKRAINE WAR - A LESSON FOR FENCE SITTERS

With President Joe Biden’s unequivocal declaration that the US would not deploy troops in Ukraine, the US State Department went overboard in making na tion states commit to taking sides. Thus, four camps were established; Pro-Ukraine, Pro-Russia, Neutral and Fence-sitters. While many countries like India were genuinely neutral to the conflict, ‘fence-sitters’ vocal ly demonstrated support for Ukraine while they actu ally maintained significant trade relations with Russia. Perhaps, they (Fence Sitters) thought that Ukrainian resistance would have given up earlier, and the ‘trade relationship’ with Russia would have remained below

the radar. Unfortunately, President Volodymyr Zelen skyy turned out to be a stubborn adversary and is still holding out.

Comment: Paradoxically, India has been publicly ac cused of being a ‘fence-sitter’, often by diplomats from countries that maintained trade relations with Russia. Actual ‘fence sitters’ are those who literally run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

Six months into the conflict, the ‘Fence Sitters’ find their trade relationship exposed and energy security threatened. With unprecedented inflation, high cost of energy and growing public disappointment with con tinued support for the war, the ‘Fence Sitters’ are now desperate to encourage a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has presided over the destruction of his country, with nothing to show for it. Millions of citizens have been displaced, several thousand have been killed or maimed (accurate figures have not been released), infrastructure has been de stroyed, and the country balkanised.

By Ukraine’s own estimates, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine will amount to a staggering US$ 750B! Accord ing to the Kiel Institute for World Economy, the U.S. and other donors have pledged only US$ 68B so far. There appears to be no face-saving for the unfortunate President, and if he concedes to peace, the less said about his legacy, the better.

SUMMARY & DEDUCTIONS

Circa 2022, the year the world emerged from COVID-19 Pandemic, is likely to be remembered for the following five deductions: -

(a) Advent of the Virtual World. The pandemic accelerated mankind’s technological advancement into the ‘virtual world’. More people, corporates, businesses and governments took to transacting virtually, rather than physically.

(b) US Misadventures. After repeated military failures (Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan), the US proba bly recognises the futility of attempting ‘regime-chang es’, with US ‘boots on the ground’. In Ukraine, the US prudently played ‘proxy war’, using the Ukrainian armed forces as front-line troops and the EU, to absorb the cost of Russia’s responses.

(c) Prudence Over Posturing. India and a host of other countries reaped benefits by staying neutral in the Ukraine conflict and prudently pursuing national interests.

(d) Demand for the Dollar. For several decades, the powerful US dollar has given disproportionate leverage to ill-conceived US military-diplomatic inter ventions, well removed from US shores. To curb further US misadventures and perhaps in US’s own economic interests, it is prudent to scale-back international de mand for the green-back. Alternative mechanisms to the Petro-dollar may be able to achieve that effect.

(e) Scape Goats. The Ukrainian nation was dealt a raw deal, becoming sacrificial pawns of a proxy war between superpowers. Ukraine will likely be bal kanised, and after so much blood-letting, it is difficult to imagine them re-unified any time soon. Besides the heart-rending human cost, it will take several decades for the nation to rebuild its economy and infrastruc ture. In retrospection, Ukraine fell prey to corruption & racial jingoism, reinforcing the wisdom of tolerance & negotiation over suppression of dissent & violence.

ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...

As we enter what promises to be a tough autumn, there are reasons to be cheerful or at least consider political and economic outcomes that are less bleak.

William John Emmott is an English journalist, author, and consultant, best known as the editor-in-chief of The Economist newspaper from 1993 to 2006.

With economic warfare squarely underway between Russia and the West, with energy price shocks all around us and even short ages looming, with extreme weather in the form of droughts and floods the world over adding to short falls of food and energy supply, with the Novem ber mid-term congressional elections potentially returning the US legislative system to gridlock, oh, and with Mary Elizabeth Truss about to become Brit ain’s new prime minister, it is easy to find reasons to be gloomy about what lies ahead. And that is without even mentioning China’s massive military intimida tion of Taiwan and the escalating war of words over that island democracy between the United States and China.

Yet need things really turn out so badly? There are some positives lying behind all of those negatives. We don’t just have to follow Eric Idle’s wonderful song in “Life of Brian” that “when you’re chewing on life’s gristle, don’t grumble, give a whistle”. There are strong causes to be hopeful. Here are my eight big ones:

FIRST:

In the war, Ukraine looks very much like it is gaining the upper hand. After more than six months, Russia has failed to achieve any of its main objectives — either it’s initial one of full conquest and control, or its fall-back aim of captur

Yet need things really turn out so badly? There are some positives lying behind all of those negatives. We don’t just have to follow Eric Idle’s wonderful song in “Life of Brian” that “when you’re chewing on life’s gristle, don’t grumble, give a whistle”.

ing the south and east of Ukraine, or even its more limited one of controlling the whole of the Donbas region. More important, however, both its will and the resources it has to deploy look to be frailer than at first appeared. As Phil lips O’Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at St Andrew’s University, said to the FT’s Gideon Rachman in this recent ‘Rachman Review’ podcast, President Putin’s reluctance to order a full mobilisation along with growing evidence that advanced western weapons have allowed Ukrainian forces to deplete Russian supplies and break its lines of supply and manoeuvre, strongly suggest that the course of the war is turning, albeit slowly and not yet definitively, Ukraine’s way.

Russia has made only meagre gains in the east and south after many months of trying. Russia’s extension of its eco nomic warfare by shutting off the Nordstream 1 gas pipeline further indicates that it is getting desperate. This also fits with the always careful but convincing arguments given by Sir Lawrence Freedman in his joint Substack with his son, Sam, that this is a war of attrition that Ukraine could go on to win.

SECOND:

For the West, the energy and resulting economic crisis nevertheless promise to be painful over the coming winter.

Plenty has been speculated that this might turn the western public, and hence political leaders, back to wards the so-called “peace camp” that believes nego tiations with Putin might provide a way out. But so far, there is no sign that support for Ukraine is fading at all in the countries that are its most important military suppliers and supporters: the United States, the UK, Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden, and Finland.

Some worry that on September 25th, Italy will elect a far-right government which has had a past close rela tionship with President Putin and may start to baulk at the economic impact of sanctions and the energy shock. The expected new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, de nies this fiercely. But no matter: the fact is that Italy’s stance on Russia and the war is not very important, for it is a minor supplier of military support to Ukraine. In the next period, it is more likely that public concern and new governments will produce higher pressure for a common EU financial support package as an accom paniment to or adjustment of the EU Next Generation fund that emerged, eventually, from the pandemic.

THIRD:

There will be pain. Nonetheless, Western countries are starting this economic and cost-of-living crisis in a stronger position than is often acknowledged. Unem ployment is below 4 per cent of the labour force in the US and UK, is below 3 per cent in Germany, and while it is at 6.6 per cent in the euro area as a whole, this is a lower level than for much of the post-2008 period. Cer tainly, public debt is high as a share of GDP in virtually all western countries, and high inflation makes it likely that the cost of borrowing and so, of servicing that debt will rise.

But for European countries in particular, including the UK, this is an emergency situation, and all have shown during the coronavirus pan demic that they are strong enough fi nancially to cope with an emergency, especially if they combine forces. The headwinds will be strong, but so are the masts and sails of the Good Ship Europe (and Britain’s too).

FOURTH:

Initial policy responses to the energy shock and to faster inflation, in general, have not been of the emer gency sort. Governments have sought to buy time in the hope that the shock would prove temporary. They have also hoped that higher energy prices would helpfully discourage energy use and encourage private investment in renew ables. In this regard, Russia’s switching off of the main gas pipeline could prove helpful. It should empower governments to treat this as an emergency and with in the European Union, should enable

talks to begin on a common financial response as well as the common energy plans they have been discussing all year. For if, with western military support, Ukraine really can gain the upper hand in the war, this crisis truly could become temporary, as long as by ‘temporary’ governments mean a planning horizon of another sixnine months. Emergency measures can manage a ninemonth problem, as we’ve seen during the pandemic.

FIFTH:

The American picture is brightening, too. There are still two months to go, but opinion polls and recent spe cial election results are now suggesting that President Biden’s Democratic Party could hold on to control of the US Senate and might also fare rather better than ex pected in the House of Representatives. All the informa tion now emerging from the FBI’s seizure of classified documents from Donald Trump’s Florida country club is looking bad, both for the Republican Party in the midterms and for Trump’s re-election prospects in 2024.

SIXTH:

If you are British, the most cheerful news of all is that on Tuesday, September 6th Boris Johnson will have gone from Number 10, Downing Street. His three years and six weeks in the prime ministership have been cha otic and ineffective throughout, and his deliberate un dermining of the rules and conventions governing the conduct of ministers and prime ministers have done real damage to British political institutions.

Henry Mance put it beautifully, if gently, in the FT Weekend,” Making Johnson prime minister was like serving jelly as the main course at a state banquet. And, after the guests have eaten it, revealing that the kitchen breached E. coli guidance.”

The claim by his Tory loyalists that he “got the big calls right” is ludicrous when placed against the facts: his Brexit deal contained a con-trickcum-time-bomb over Northern Ireland, which will cause contin ued damage to the UK’s relations its main allies for years to come, and to the stability of Northern Ireland itself; his Covid policy was disastrously slow and riven with corrupt, cronyist practices over procurement of emergency medical sup plies; his much-vaunted success with early vaccine approvals and preferen tial supply contracts gave Britain a lead of a mere six weeks or so over its Eu ropean neighbours, a lead which was anyway then squandered after sever al months; and he has failed abjectly to get a grip of the energy crisis that has been staring his government in the face for six months now.

The one, albeit important, issue on which he has performed well has

been the war in Ukraine. Britain’s support, both military and political, for Ukraine has been steadfast, returning the UK to its traditional position as the strongest fol lower of the US military lead among the NATO mem bers. That important achievement nevertheless has to be placed in the context of Johnson’s past pursuit of party donations from wealthy Russians and his granting of a peerage to the son of a former KGB officer.

SEVENTH:

There are plenty of reasons to be worried about what Liz Truss will do and who will be in her cabinet. Fussing now about the “plans” she put forward during the excruciatingly long Tory leadership campaign is to overlook the point that those plans were shameless bids to get elected by 160,000 Conservative members, not real plans for government. And whatever we turn out to think of her, she will not be Boris Johnson, thank good ness.

Moreover, the arrival of a new Tory prime minister very likely brings forward the date of the next UK gen eral election from 2024 into 2023. Prime Minister Truss is pretty likely to want to try to seek her own mandate, especially as the Conservative party is now so divided up into factions, and she will be tempted to do so once the UK has begun to emerge from the coming emergen cy, which she will probably be hoping will be at about this time next year.

On that argument, the Truss government could therefore be in office only for about 12 months. It would be foolish to predict the outcome of that election at this stage, but we should still be cheered by the thought that voters might soon get the chance to have their say after a long period with one party in power.

EIGHTH:

Can we be optimistic also about the prospects for war with China? China is currently looking weak, not

strong. That could make it desperate, but it could also make it impotent. China’s failed zero covid policy has refuted its claims of systemic superiority compared with the West.

Its pharmaceutical manufacturers proved highly ef fective in producing billions of vaccines during the pan demic, but their technology was shown to be far inferi or to that of western firms — and the effects are being seen in the poor levels of acquired immunity all around the country, and the fact of interest in Chinese vaccines abroad faded once their efficacy became known.Fur thermore, China, for no fault of its own, has suffered badly this summer from heat waves and drought.

This, along with zero covid, is worsening the eco nomic slowdown that had already been begun by a widespread slump in the property and construction sectors that the economy had become overly depen dent on. The professed aim of changing economic course to become a technological leader has stumbled badly, for China’s government has long been doing its best to constrain or even hobble its big tech firms for fear of their political power, not encourage them.

Finally, in the medium and long term, China’s demography is now swinging against it, producing an ageing society and shrinking population that by mid-century, will be much older than the US and will be comparable to Japan. All this means that China is not the remorseless, powerful juggernaut it is often cracked up to be and, in fact, is going through its own period of troubles. Now, this could persuade its leaders that, after all, time is not on China’s side, so they had better take their chances over Taiwan sooner rather than later. On the other hand, it could persuade them that their country is, in truth, too vulnerable to take the huge risk of starting a war.

As Eric Idle said, let’s look on the bright side. It might even be the right side.

STIRRING UP A HORNETS’ NEST

Ms Nancy Pelosi’s flying visit to Taiwan has left a diplomatic and military storm in its wake.

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T he Chinese, who were burning backchannels to persuade Ms Pelosi to put off the visit, were not amused. Calling it the “Fourth Tai wan Strait Crisis”, after the third one of 1995-96, they warned of serious repercussions. As the situa tion unravelled hourly, the Chinese appeared ready to press home their point emphatically.

For decades, the U.S. has assiduously avoided a confron tation which could inadvertently spiral out of control.

For regional and global stability, it can only be hoped that within a few days, the furore will die down, with both sides having scored their points, and it will be back to busi ness as usual. At a time when a conflict in eastern Europe is wreaking the world economy, the world does not need an other major conflagration which will, without doubt, drag in the U.S. and its NATO allies, and perhaps even North and South Koreas and Japan.

MIXED SIGNALS FROM WASHINGTON

It is still unclear what motivated Ms Pelosi to undertake this visit, the first by a senior U.S. political figure to Taiwan in the last 25 years. Of course, her sentiments about human rights violations and suppression of individual rights by Beijing are well publicised. In 1992, she hoisted a banner at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square to honour the pro-democracy movement. Some critics may claim that the optics generat ed by the latest visit may benefit Democrats in the upcom ing congressional elections in which there are indications that they may not be doing too well.

There is a sense of déjà vu growing in some quarters in Beijing that with every passing year, the goal of unification is fading away. Proindependence regimes have strengthened in Taiwan and gained confidence with overt American encouragement. The current government of President Tsai Ing-wen is fiercely pro-independence. Recent polls have indicated a strong resolution in Taiwan against reunification, with not even 2 per cent voting for unification. China’s handling of Hong Kong has not exactly been inspiring for the Taiwanese, who figure they will be in an identical predicament come unification.

A White House spokesperson tried to calm ruffled feath ers by stating that there was no change in America’s ‘One China Policy.’ Apparently, the Biden Administration tried its best to dissuade Ms Pelosi, who at 82 could be at the tail end of her political career. The Republicans, sensing blood, immediately supported Ms Pelosi for her daring endeavour, trying to drive a wedge in the Democrat camp.

The hawks in the U.S. decry the American policy of ‘stra tegic ambiguity’ towards Taiwan and blame it for the cur rent mess. While accepting the One China formula, the U.S. does not clarify the status of Taiwan because, in the same breath, it vows to defend the Island state by providing the

necessary military wherewithal and maintaining its mil itary capacity in the region.

CHINESE MOVES AND INTENTIONS

There is a sense of déjà vu growing in some quar ters in Beijing that with every passing year, the goal of unification is fading away. Pro-independence regimes have strengthened in Taiwan and gained confidence with overt American encouragement. The current gov ernment of President Tsai Ing-wen is fiercely pro-inde pendence. Recent polls have indicated a strong resolu tion in Taiwan against reunification, with not even 2 per cent voting for unification. China’s handling of Hong Kong has not exactly been inspiring for the Taiwanese, who figure they will be in an identical predicament, come unification.

Considering that President Xi Jinping is a few months away from the crucial Communist Party Con gress, where he is expected to make a bid for another term, the visit could scarcely be ignored by the Chinese leadership, lest they look weak and indecisive, a trait that they mock most democratic leaders for. Therefore, a strong reaction was expected. Global Times claimed that China would take measures that would be ‘long term, resolute and steadily advancing actions.’

Extremists in China called for a military confronta tion by shooting down the plane carrying Ms Pelosi. But on the ground, there were no aggressive moves made by the PLAN to force an encounter with the American carrier group operating East of Taiwan. However, China did all in its power to ratchet the pressure to unbearable levels.

Military drills by the Chinese armed forces began on August 4th around Taiwan and almost blockaded the Is land. The area was cordoned off with no sea or air traffic permitted as live firing was being undertaken. Some of the missiles were reported landing in the territorial wa ters of Taiwan, and combat aircraft aggressively probed Taiwan’s self-proclaimed Air Defence Areas.

In a dangerous escalation, over four days, more than 100 aircraft and 41 Chinese naval vessels crossed the median line that demarcates the sea between China and Taiwan. Ballistic missiles were fired into the sea around Taiwan, even intruding into the EEZ claimed by Japan and the Philippines and deep into Taiwan’s territorial waters.

The biggest danger would come if the Chinese im posed a naval blockade around the Island, closing the strategic Taiwan Straits to international traffic. In that case, the U.S. would be forced to claim its freedom of navigation in international waters, as it did in 1996.

Under President Xi’s watch, the PLA has been steadily improving its capacity to overwhelm Chinese Taipei’s defences while keeping at bay any American forces steaming to the rescue. This includes accurate ballistic and cruise missiles (touted as Carrier Killers) and anti-satellite weapons to blind the West’s Intelli

gence, Surveillance and Reporting (ISR) capacity. Mil itary planners in the West believe that it is a matter of time when such preparations are complete, and Mr Xi, just like his counterpart in the Kremlin, would give the go-ahead for an invasion. In fact, Taiwanese military brass, who have been closely watching the Chinese ma noeuvres, are saying it was a full-dress rehearsal for an invasion.

The Eurasian Times has cited a Taiwanese Ministry of Defence report which claims that the Chinese armed forces would have developed the capability to militari ly assimilate Taiwan and keep its allies at bay by 2027, when the PLA celebrates a century of its raising.

American think tanks have for years wargamed Chi nese options for an invasion of Taiwan and have come out with conflicting conclusions. According to the Economist, in a recent wargame in a 2027 scenario at Washington based Centre for a New American Security, the Chinese established bridgeheads on the Island with in the first week of combat. Still, the fighting after that deteriorated into a slugfest when they struck the hilly terrain guarding the approach to Taipei, turning into a long drawn-out war.

In a 2021 U.S. National Defence University publi cation, ‘The PLA Beyond Borders’, Taiwanese military analysts Chung Chieh and Andrew N.D. Yang highlight

ed the logistic difficulties the PLA faced in mounting a cross-strait invasion. The PLA has to quickly build up its forces onshore once it has established multiple bridgeheads to pre-empt foreign interference. To enable this, the PLA would have to build up a capacity to con vey thousands of troops and a large quantity of war-like stores and supplies by sea and air. In an Economist ar ticle, Chung Chieh and Yang write, “China would have to move hundreds of thousands of troops, 30m tonnes of materiel and over 5m tonnes of oil for a big invasion. It would burn through well over half a million kilograms of fuel a day!” As of now, it lacks this capacity as also matching infrastructure like gigantic logistic nodes which can stock up the mountain of stores that would be required and move them up to the forward troops.

WHAT ABOUT PEACEFUL UNIFICATION?

Even as the smell of cordite still lingered over the Taiwan Straits, official Chinese media released a white paper that claimed that while China retained the right to use military force, there was scope for peaceful unifi cation. James Palmer, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy writes, “Despite Beijing’s rhetoric, a full-scale invasion remains a risky endeavour—and (Chinese) officials think the island can be coerced into reunification.” The Chinese Communist Party has invested much time and money in creating pro-Beijing groups on the Island, in cluding prominent members of organised crime syndi cates. These would be useful assets to turn public opin ion in favour of unification.

The risks of a military invasion are extremely high for China’s dream to become the number one econom ic power by 2030. Even if the American military power may appear to be waning and internal contradictions are tearing its society apart, the U.S. remains the strongest military power globally. A miscalculated military adven

ture that pulls Washington into the equation could spell the doom of the CPC. The Chinese military would also be shaky, having no real warfighting experience in the 21st century; its last big military action in Vietnam in 1979 was a flop by any definition. Even its military faceoff with India on the high Himalayas in 2019-20 did not showcase any strategic or tactical brilliance on the part of the Chinese High Command.

More importantly, Chinese growth has perceptibly slowed down, and it would not be the right moment to join Russia, North Korea, and Iran as rogue nations sanctioned to their bare bones for the next foreseeable future.

Assessment

Surprisingly, in all the excitement of the visit and its fallout in terms of Chinese hyper-military activity, Taiwan has maintained a low profile. Obviously, it does not want to add fuel to the fire with any statement or action that would further infuriate the Chinese.

Taiwan would like to remain under the Chinese radar for as long as it takes so that, over a period of time, its existence is taken as a fact of life by Beijing. In the 1980s and 1990s, a lot of Taiwanese investment went into spurring China’s meteoric economic rise and even today, these strong commercial relations remain largely unaffected. Metaphorically speaking, Taiwan would prefer China to benefit from the ‘hen that lays golden eggs’ rather than eviscerate the hen to get at the source of the golden eggs!

For Taiwan, deterrence is the best option in which the U.S. is the pivot; defeating the invasion should be the last-ditch option. Ukraine has highlighted the pitfalls of conventional defence in a David vs Goliath battle.

Standing at the cusp of a historic third term, President Xi Jinping remains China’s best hope in its relentless march to global primacy.

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B y all accounts, President Xi Jinping, in his al most decade-long stint at the highest echelons of China, has eclipsed all of his illustrious predecessors, including the exalted Chairman Mao Zedong. While Mr Xi Jinping may not acknowledge it publicly, he owes much to the economic achieve ments of Deng Xiaoping. Nicknamed the “Architect of Modern China,” President Deng Xiaoping ushered far-reaching market economic reforms that turned China into the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, thus setting the stage for Mr Xi Jinping to make China the top economy by 2050.

The world failed to read President Putin in all his com plexities and was surprised by the war in Ukraine. It could prove hazardous to repeat this mistake by misreading Pres ident Xi Jinping. The recent furore over Ms Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan showcased President Xi Jinping’s determina tion and confidence to resort to military sabre rattling rath er than lodging diplomatic démarches in protest.

A direct challenge to global dominance has been thrown to the West under this Chinese leader, while within the Peo ple’s Republic of China (PRC), he has established a person ality cult around his rule. With the recent flare-up of ten sions in the Taiwan Straits, this analysis of Xi Jinping has become more relevant than ever before.

WHO IS XI?

A victim of the Cultural Revolution, when his father, a veteran of the communist revolution, was purged from the communist party, Xi Jinping (born 1953) took to service in

A direct challenge to global dominance has been thrown to the West under this Chinese leader, while within the People’s Republic of China (PRC), he has established a personality cult around his rule. With the recent flare-up of tensions in the Taiwan Straits, this analysis of Xi Jinping has become more relevant than ever before.

the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as his path to success. His worker-peasant-soldier status allowed him to earn a chemical engineering degree, and as a member of the Com munist Party of China (CPC), he rose steadily up through party ranks-Governor of Fujian and Zhejiang from 1999 to 2007 and first secretary of the Central Secretariat in 2007. He became the general secretary of CCP and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) in 2012 and Presi dent of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2013.

The turning moment came in 2017 when the CCP elevat ed him to a pedestal equal to Chairman Mao by adopting “Xi Jinping Thought” into the constitution. Mr Jinping called it “socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era.” ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ is the overall framework of his policy ideas espoused in his various writings and speeches.

During his rising years, Xi had witnessed the spreading virus of corruption as China opened its economy to market forces, and therefore, it was not surprising that anti-corrup tion constituted his principal platform which further added to his popularity with the masses. In the same vein, he is now targeting the fabulously rich Chinese Big Corporations, asking for a more equitable distribution of wealth in society.

JINPING’S GRAND STRATEGY

The world waited with bated breath for China’s hur tling growth rates to crash under the contradictions of its political and cultural beliefs. But the ‘implosion’ failed to take place, and under Xi, the nation has found new strength. He has waged a successful battle against corruption, purging over 100,000 officials (many at the top echelons) and promoting his nation from its de rogatory status as the ‘world’s factory’ to the leader in transformative technologies like AI and Quantum Com puting.

President Xi Jinping has been least apologetic about China’s growing influence in global affairs, both eco nomic and geopolitical, and with his unique brand of ‘Wolf Diplomacy’ marked a sea change in China’s rela tions with the U.S.

It is quite obvious (with the benefit of hindsight) that Chinese leadership anticipated that their ‘honey moon’ with the U.S. would be short-lived, as soon as they drew level with the superpower. And they prepared for the competition that would dawn one day. In fact, the current Chinese grand strategy under Xi Jinping is based on its competition with the United States. This competition is embodied in China’s concept of compre hensive national power that encompasses internal sta bility, the economy, military power, science and tech nology, cultural security and many other areas.

Nowhere is this Chinese confidence more visible than in the field of cutting-edge technology. As per Dr Paulraj, a professor emeritus of engineering at Stanford University, China leads in mass market AI applications. Under President Xi Jinping, the Chinese Government has been making policies that promote and encourage investments in AI applications and products. Global influence and economic power are increasingly linked to mass-marketed high technologies like ICT, pharma, robotics, industry 4.0 and commercial aviation. China recognized this many years back and has been aggres sively investing in mass marketable high technology. In the future, this will be AI or machine learning, robotics and quantum computing, and China is among the lead ing countries in all these. On the question of production technologies, China is building up its technology sector at a higher rate to compete with the US.

The moment this realization came upon the U.S., both mega powers started drifting apart, and their rival ry intensified. This has fuelled the new ‘Cold War’, and the rate of this competition will only grow as China’s overall power projection continues to increase.

Today, there is unmistakable confidence in Xi Jin ping’s China. Despite calls for banning Chinese scien tists for their unfair means of obtaining cutting-edge technology from the West, accusations of being the progenitor of COVID, and mastering manipulative and unfair trade practices, China can no longer be ignored. Its position at the crossroad of global supply chains en sures that any nation that decouples with China does so at its economic peril. India is confronting one such

dilemma that it is unable to resolve.

With respect to market access, the Chinese are car rying out a much more robust economic diplomacy than the United States. The Belt and Road Initiative is one example of this. The Indo-Pacific is another area where China has been actively promoting itself economically. China under Xi Jinping has not yet posed a direct chal lenge to the United States’ leadership in global institu tions. But it is slowly getting there.

CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY

President Xi Jinping has personally been involved in China’s military modernization. Last year on PLA Day, President Xi Jinping made it very clear to his generals who ran the military. It was the CCP that ‘commands the gun’ he said, and directed the PLA to ‘become the world’s best army by 2027, on par with that of the U.S.’ President Xi is well aware that the Chinese military power will be the lynchpin in propelling his nation into superpower status. The massive ‘anti-corruption’ drive did not spare the PLA, which saw over 50 top generals and many minor functionaries being punished, which by itself was a brave move.

China has been carrying out significant military modernization under Xi Jinping. It is changing its over all strategy to carry out war to make it much more flexi ble than before. That is, it is focusing on new operation al concepts of war. The People’s Liberation Army is also exploring other non-conventional areas of warfare, like space and cyber in direct competition with the U.S.

THE CHINESE WAY

Taking off from where President Deng Xiaoping left the country (in a fine fettle economically), Mr Xi has focussed more on the philosophy of how modern China looks at itself- as a global power (with all its connota tions-like the U.S.) rather than an economic giant (like Japan or Germany). He has the confidence to speak of a “Chinese way”-in economy, in foreign policy and even in democratic reforms. Today, he can face the West and teach them the “Chinese Model of Governance’” as an alternative to Western Democracy!

A confident and assertive China has emerged under Xi Jinping both at the domestic and international levels. Xi believes that China has garnered enough strength to finally establish itself on the global stage. In the field of foreign policy, the Xi Jinping era is the end of the “peaceful rise of China”.

However, the expansionist ambition of the Chi nese President is a cause for concern taking us back to the 1930s when a similarly inclined nationalist leader plunged the world into its most destructive conflict. The West has not yet been able to read Xi Jinping prop erly. It needs to do so to engage with the new China in a balanced manner. The world cannot afford a confla gration. Otherwise, due to miscommunication between Beijing and Washington, a major untoward crisis may suddenly and unexpectedly explode.

RUSSIAN CRUDE IN INDIA’S ENERGY MIX

Years of mutual investments under the wider shadow of a thriving strategic relationship have tied India’s oil sector to Russia with an umbilical cord hard to cut.

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Snide remarks are being made in high offices in many western nations, suffering under their self-imposed denial of cheap Russian energy, that India has benefited from this disruption. Per figures available in the public domain, India’s im ports of Russian crude oil spiked, with the discount ed prices acting as an incentive hard to ignore.

As the Western-sponsored sanctions took a grip and Rus sian gas and crude oil pipelines went dry, Russia saw a glut in its storage capacity and sinking prices. Faced with the rising cost of sustaining a debilitating war in Ukraine, Moscow was keen to offer its oil at an attractive price to lure customers ready to risk the wrath of powerful western economies. For entirely oil-dependent economies like China and India, this was a God-sent opportunity hard to miss as spiralling ener gy prices were stymieing their post-pandemic recovery.

Walking a razor-thin line so far, such imports have not attracted secondary sanctions, as the West has been threat ening for some time. Perhaps, while India and China may be the most prominent importers of Russian crude, many smaller countries in Europe have not fully shut the tap on Russian energy sources. Secondary sanctions come with their baggage of complications for the EU facing a cold and long winter ahead, and smaller EU economies unable to sus tain the voluntary sanctions for any length of time.

India’s foreign minister has defended the country’s posi tion as one led by economic motives – especially when west ern sanctions against Iran and Venezuela have further kept

The umbilical cord connecting India and Russia goes beyond a mere commercial relationship. It covers a broad canvas covering technology, space missions, nuclear deterrent programmes, and even diplomatic support in the UN security council, among other issues.

crude oil off the market.

A LEGACY AFFAIR

The umbilical cord connecting India and Russia goes beyond a mere commercial relationship. It covers a broad canvas spanning technology, space missions, nuclear deter rent programmes, and even diplomatic support in the UN security council, among other issues.

Political memory of Russia’s support for India in the 1970s Liberation campaign in Bangladesh against open American hostility is still strong. India would like to keep all its options open in the current geopolitical environment, where the calculus between global powers is rapidly chang ing.

While the US-India strategic partnership grows not only in the Indo-Pacific but also in the Middle East, through the India-Israel-US-UAE (I2U2) agreement, India has contin ued to nurse its relationship with Moscow. As India’s princi pal source of defence equipment, the relationship has tem pered over the years and is capable of sustaining upheavals.

Both sides accept each other’s vulnerabilities and con straints and do not let these interfere with their com mercial and other exchanges of mutual benefit. Further more, Russia is not beyond signalling from time to time, albeit tactfully, that putting all our eggs in the Western basket may force Moscow to veer towards Beijing and, worse, Islamabad.

IT IS PURE ECONOMICS!!

Over the past few decades, Indian and Russian pub lic sector companies have invested in each other’s oil and energy industries. As a result, it is in India’s interest to support Russian oil and gas, especially when the eco nomics supports this. The Russian oil mix, Urals, was $36 per barrel cheaper than Brent, the international oil benchmark, on average last month. This could total up to a significant reduction in India’s oil import bill.

Aside from these relatively short-term commercial gains, larger investment and financial goals are on the horizon. Four public sector energy companies-ONGC Videsh Ltd., Oil India Ltd., Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., and Bharat Petro Resources Ltd. have purchased a 49.9 per cent stake in the Vankorneft oil field in Eastern Si beria. In addition, Oil India Ltd., Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., and Bharat Petro Resources Ltd. invested in a 29.9 per cent stake in a field in the Arctic zone.

As the West, represented by firms such as BP, Shell, and Exxon Mobil, exit Russia, these projects, and the energy sector as a whole in Russia will suffer from a lack of funding, threatening its collapse and jeopardising the significant Indian investments.

While ‘Big Oil’ may weather the financial shock of departing Russia in a hurry, perhaps with the financial support of a sympathetic national government, the cash-strapped Indian Government cannot afford a total collapse of the Russian energy industry. Also, knowing the Chinese penchant for making quick inroads when the opportunity arises, India will be wary of letting Chi nese companies enter this space too.

India is facing mounting pressure to limit its con sumption of Russian crude oil. Statistics reveal that be fore the war, India bought one percent of Russia’s crude, that figure rocketed to 19 per cent by May. Against a sliding rupee towards the U.S. dollar, the economics are titled heavily in favour of India’s consumption of Rus sian crude or other energy products.

India’s private refineries have expanded their pur chase of the Urals crude. The Jamnagar refinery secured 27 per cent of its oil from Russia in May, up from just 5 per cent before April. The other refinery called Nayara Energy is, in effect, predominantly Russian – owned alongside a consortium of Singapore-based commod ities firm Trafigura and Russian investment company UCP. Nayara does not face any Western sanctions, al though India has faced criticism for acting as a conduit for Russian oil to reach the West. Refined petroleum products are a big chunk of India’s export revenues.

Economics is playing an overriding role in the global energy mix. While the U.S. wants countries like India to purchase less Russian oil, it is aware that a blanket ban on all Russian oil will only further escalate gas prices in the U.S.

At the same time, India is not keen to pull out its investments from the Russian energy sector in a hur ry. It would be more prudent to wait for conflicts and tensions to ease out as oil and gas fields typically have a lifespan of a few decades.

Economic stability and pressure to keep inflation in check signal that the Russian – Indian energy mix is here to stay.

This energy equation is not without its hiccups, however. Although the price of Russian crude is attrac tive, Indian refining companies are facing a problem financing these purchases. Sanctions on Russian banks are making financial transactions difficult to execute. One of the solutions proposed by analysts could be developing a transaction system based on local curren cies whereby Indian exporters could get paid in rubles instead of international currencies such as dollars or euros. There is already some skepticism from the U.S. on this system which could support the rouble and, in effect, negate the current financial system.

Assessment

Russia and India’s long-standing connection has withstood choppy waters of international disputes, military arsenal equipping and more! It is no surprise that India has taken a cautious approach to the Russian – Ukrainian conflict and the resulting energy crisis.

The energy sector requires a long-stay approach. Oil and gas fields have a lifespan of a few decades which typically outlive geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Analysts predict that India will play a wait-andwatch game before making significant changes to its investments in the Russian energy mix.

A LONG, COLD WINTER AHEAD?

As winter inexorably draws closer, a war-weary Europe

hunkers down to face it with expensive and dwindling energy supplies.

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A one-minute ad, purportedly inviting people to Russia, has gone viral on social media, at tracting comments from supporters on both sides of the geopolitical camps. Titled ‘Time to Move to Russia,’ the ad extols the virtues of Russia- ‘beau tiful women, rich history, unique architecture, tradi tional values, vodka, cheap gas and electricity!’

Banality aside, the ad says it all, underscoring the real concern that is prevalent in every European household as the deadly European winter approaches. Will Russia totally shut taps on its gas flow in the depth of winter? The Rus sians can sense this fear and are now tightening the screws.

At the end of July, the news was grim. Bundesnetzagen tur, the German federal office responsible for regulating gas, electricity, telecommunications, postal system and railway markets, announced that Gazprom, the Russian govern ment-owned mega gas company, had given notice of a fur ther cut in gas supply through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to ‘turbine defects.’ The flow, already at a record low of 40 percent of capacity from the pre-Ukraine war days, has now dropped by half to a meagre 20 percent. This will keep German gas storage facilities only one-third full by Novem ber when the cold starts biting and energy demands shoot up. The German central bank, Deutsche Bundesbank, has projected a 5 percent drop in economic output and higher inflation if Russian gas supplies are totally cut off.

This is the first shot fired across the bow by Mr Putin, and winters are still three months away!

Europe has only itself to blame for having walked into the trap. Allured by visions of vast reservoirs of gas lying untapped in the Russian wastelands, it seemed like easy pickings for its energy-hungry industry and luxuriating public.

THE GAS TRAP

Europe has only itself to blame for having walked into the trap. Allured by visions of vast reservoirs of gas lying un tapped in the Russian wastelands, it seemed like easy pick ings for its energy-hungry industry and luxuriating public.

Over the years, as an impression of declining Russian status in world affairs gained ground in Western minds, the geographical proximity and a Russian economy starved for Euro attracted rich European nations to invest in the Rus sian gas fields. This ‘captive’ source would comfortably last till renewables could reach that stage of technological de velopment, permitting them to completely replace fossil fu els. But no one had foreseen Ukraine and Mr Putin’s ‘special military operation.’

Going by the conservative figures available in the public domain, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is approxi mately 35 percent of its total requirement for its gas-fired power generating turbines and domestic boilers. The trans fer of gas takes place silently at the most economical rates through a network of high-tech pipelines like Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream 1. Incidentally, Ukraine lies on an import

ant transit route for Russian gas to Austria and Italy for which it was paid transit fees. As per EU estimates, in case of a Russian close down of the gas supply, EU’s GDP would be shaved off by nearly 1.5 per cent.

The sudden denial of cheap gas for domestic purpos es has a serious social blowback. This was dramatically expressed by the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in an interview with RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) when she said,’’If we won’t get any more gas, then we can’t support them at all. Ukraine do more because we are then busy with popular uprisings.” While there may be a little exaggeration in this state ment, the falling popularity ratings of governments in European countries like Germany is an indication that the danger of a split in the society is very real unless the governments cushion these hardships for the common citizen.

France, the second largest economy in the EU, is also facing a grave energy situation. Until now, France had denied that Russian gas made any difference, large ly courtesy of its massive nuclear-powered generation capacity. In fact, France is a net exporter of electricity to Europe and even across the English Channel to the UK. Therefore, an announcement by President Macron in the middle of July came as an unmitigated shock to the French public when they were told to cut back on their energy consumption.

Nuclear energy provides almost 42 per cent of France’s needs and is supplied by a chain of 56 nuclear reactors, with six new massive new generation reactors in the pipeline. But dependence on a single primary en ergy source has its drawback because over half of the nuclear reactors urgently need immediate repairs/ren ovation.

To meet the domestic shortfall, France must pur chase electricity in the open market and activate some of its mothballed coal-fired power stations. Thus, France is in no position to take up the slack to compen sate for Russian gas and mitigate the energy crisis for

its other bloc partners. Domestically, President Macron will have to face the wrath of a public shielded from energy shocks by generous state subsidies that are not feasible in the long term. The recent defeat of his par ty in the parliamentary elections clearly indicates how things could take a turn for the worse for his govern ment.

Poland (50 per cent of gas comes from Russia) and Bulgaria (also heavily dependent with its only refinery owned by Russians) have already had their gas supply shut down as they were unable/ unwilling to pay in rou bles. Italy, the third largest EU economy, gets nearly 40 per cent of its natural gas from Russia for generating household and industrial electricity.

EUROPE FIGHTS BACK

Just about a week after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission devised an ambi tious plan to ‘make Europe independent of Russian fos sil fuels well before 2030, starting with gas.’ The plan contemplates enhancing storage capacity for the win ter surges and regulating the prices. The Commission President was quoted as saying, “We simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us. We need to act now to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices, diversify our gas supply for next winter and accelerate the clean energy transition. The quicker we switch to renewables and hydrogen, combined with more energy efficiency, the quicker we will be truly independent and master our energy system.”

Energy concerns have been on top of the agenda at every meeting of the western powers- US-EU Summit, EU Council, the G-7 and even at NATO’s Madrid sum mit. By the end of July, an agreement had been cobbled together in which out of 27 members, 26 had agreed to cut gas consumption by 15 per cent from the average of the last five years; only Hungary was the outlier.

Other options are also being explored, with Germa ny contemplating tapping Norway, Netherlands, Brit

ain and Denmark. However, Norway threw cold water on these hopes by claiming its supply was already at its peak.

Southern Europe would try to tap the Azerbaijan gas fields through the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)and the Trans Anatolian pipeline transiting Turkey. The TAP is the final leg of a nearly 4000 km long gas corridor con necting consumers to Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II gas field in the Caspian Sea. This corridor aims to diversify the Russian gas supply to Southern Europe, with Italy being the major consumer.

As an immediate measure, the U.S. had increased its supply of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Northwest Europe, staving off the situation at least until the begin ning of the winters. But LNG has to be ferried in cus tom-designed ships, which adds to the cost, especially now when its demand has spiked globally, and there is a limited number of ships available in the shipping indus try. Furthermore, as per market experts, the global lique faction capacity has peaked. Even if the gas is available, it may not be in a state fit for long-distance transportation in tankers.

As discussed earlier, no other EU member has re tained or enhanced its nuclear power generation ca

pacity except for France. In fact, Germany, Britain and Belgium are the worst off, with the bulk of their plants under decommissioning or suffering frequent outages due to vintage and poor maintenance.

A climate-conscious EU had taken the lead to shut down coal-fired plants, a step that is coming back to bite it, for a few nations kept such plants up and running as a backup.

Advice is flowing to European capitals from all sources, fast and furious. The International Energy Agency has come up with a 10-point plant which in cludes, amongst other measures, tapping other sources, maximising storage capacity to provide resilience and enhancing renewables.

However, in the short and middle terms, a significant switch over to renewable is not feasible. As Mr Ranjan Mathai, a former foreign secretary to the government of India, writes, “The Organisation for Economic Co-oper ation and Development report on the security of supply of raw materials which cautioned that the green energy transition would require a quantum leap in the use of critical minerals, many of which are more geo-economi cally concentrated than oil. Electric Vehicles and battery storage for the power sector could increase lithium de mand by 40 times and cobalt by 30 times by 2040 unless advances in battery chemistry reduce mineral require ments.” The platinum group of metals will need to be scaled up to 150 times the present production! For many key minerals, including lithium, bismuth, cobalt, nickel and rare earths, most production is concentrated in just three countries.

So with little relief on the horizon, the Russian ad would appear tempting to many Europeans feeling the brunt of the oncoming freezing winters!

Assessment

An unusually cold winter in Europe with very expensive, or worse, no gas is a scenario that the Kremlin would be praying for this winter. It could seriously damage European solidarity against Russia, and cracks are already appearing in the façade. A wily President Putin would not hesitate to exploit these cracks to widen the gaps between European nations so as to make relaxations on sanctions a necessary quid pro quo.

However, it is a risky game that Mr Putin is playing because almost 43 per cent of Russian government revenues come from oil and gas, as per U.S. Energy Information Administration. With these funds dried up, where will the money to make expensive missiles, shells, tanks, fighter jets and helicopters come from if the war in Ukraine is to be sustained until Russian strategic objectives are fully met? That is the dilemma that should keep President Putin awake at night, with the economic blowback of the Ukraine war still gathering momentum and a fractured global geopolitical equilibrium threatening a fresh round of Cold War.

THE TUSSLE FOR 10 DOWNING STREET

Written a month before the announcement of Ms Liz Truss as the new incumbent of 10 Downing Street, Lt Gen Simon Mayal’s SWOT analysis of both contenders came out with the correct result.

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By Lieutenant General Sir Simon Vin cent Mayall, KBE, CB (Retired) a Middle East Adviser at the Ministry of Defence.

Three years on from the Brexit Referendum of 2016, after a very turbulent and divisive period in British politics, Boris Johnson had manoeuvred himself into the leadership of the Tory Party, replacing the hapless Theresa May, and then manoeuvred the Labour party, led by the egregious Jeremy Corbyn, into supporting an election. Boris Johnson, in many ways single-handedly, then se cured an 80-seat Conservative majority and at the same time, secured Britain’s exit from the Europe an Union, the Customs Union and the Single Mar ket, although at the cost of leaving the status of Northern Ireland ambiguous. It was an astonishing achievement.

Two and a half years on from that election victory, Boris Johnson has found himself forced to resign as leader of the Tory Party and by extension, as Prime Minister.

The fall from grace has, in many ways, been as remark able as the rise to seemingly, unassailable political domi nance. Johnson had assembled a powerful ad hoc coalition of small-c conservatives, which successfully combined oldstyle Tories with voters in the so-called ‘Red Wall’. The lat ter were long-term Socialist voters who were repelled by the cultural assumptions of the Labour Party and who support ed Brexit as an expression of British sovereignty.

The opponents of the Tories will do their very best to unsettle and even unseat the new Leader. There will be no ‘honeymoon period’, and the new PM will face a relentless barrage from Remainers, the mainstream media, the Unions, and the EU.

LOSING FOCUS

Despite relentless criticism by those sections of the Brit ish political establishment and the media who loathed Boris Johnson for the Brexit outcome, the British government’s response to Covid was perfectly adequate when examined against the record of other countries and the vaccine devel opment and roll-out were notable successes. Unfortunate ly, while Boris could rightly claim credit for some of this, it came at the neglect of many other issues on which he had been elected and which were in the Tory Party manifesto of 2019. Taxes were raised, Brexit ‘freedoms’ were squandered, illegal immigration was not controlled, unrealistic elements of the ‘green agenda’ were pursued, and ‘culture war’ issues were not confronted robustly. The Covid crisis, with its dire economic consequences, was rapidly supplanted by the Rus sian invasion of Ukraine, to which Johnson rose with admi rable robustness, and then an ensuing and ongoing cost-ofliving crisis.

All of this was still manageable, given the worldwide/na tional nature of these crises and the weakness of the oppo sition parties and their leaders, but government problems were compounded by Boris Johnson’s own personality and style of leadership. In due course, the combination of drift

from the Tory manifesto and its underlying political philosophy, in-fighting in No 10, the influence of Mrs Johnson and her clique, sloppy day-to-day manage ment, a drip-feed of publicity about breaches of lockdown rules, economy with the truth in Parliament, all sapped Boris Johnson’s Parliamentary authority and his political popularity.

A series of unforced errors and unnecessary by-elec tions revealed Boris Johnson’s waning fortunes and resulted in a no-confidence vote by Tory Members of Parliament. Although Boris won that particular contest, a slew of subsequent ministerial resignations, including that of his Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, convinced Johnson that he had to stand down. He signalled his intention to step down as Tory leader and PM on 7 July, initiating a leadership contest in which MPs whittled a diverse, ini tial list of 10 candidates down to two before the surviv ing two, Rishi Sunk and Liz Truss, went in front of the Tory membership (c.160,000) in a series of 12 public ‘hustings’, and innumerable press interviews. Although the debates go on until the end of August, some vot ing is already underway. Results will be announced on 5 September.

THE CHOICE FOR A SUCCESSOR

Boris Johnson has many critics and detractors, in cluding many in his Party. His supporters, who retain considerable regard and affection for him, are also an gry and disappointed at the manner in which he has squandered his remarkable achievement and there by tarnished the Tory reputation for competence and sound management of the public finances. This sets the background for the current leadership contest.Rishi Su nak is undoubtedly the most technically competent of the two and has the endorsement of many who opposed and rejected Boris or who regard a ‘steady pair of hands’ as vital in the current situation. He understands money, and already has close relationships with the Treasury, the Bank of England, and many domestic, foreign and international financial institutions. He is a very popu lar constituency MP for Richmond in Yorkshire and an engaging and articulate speaker. His focus has been on ‘tackling inflation’ and the cost of living crisis first, before embarking on the tax cuts that Tories are demanding, and which are vital to the Conservative political philosophy that sees burden of tax falling, the role of the state diminishing, and person al responsibility rising. A win for him might well settle the markets, but Rishi is seen as the ‘establishment candidate, and his wealth (com bined with his wife’s non-domicile tax status) has been and will continue to play against him, as will his agency in putting up taxes to their highest level in 70 years.

The issue of ‘race’ is not an issue in the pursuit of a Tory leader who can govern well and can defeat Labour at the next election. For hard-core Boris sup porters, he is the one who conspired against their ‘fa vourite son’ and who toppled him with his ‘treacher

ous’ resignation, having already prepared to run against him in any leadership race, and his capacity to re-build Tory strength against the Liberal Democrat appeal, to regain faltering Tory support in the ‘Red Wall’, and to see off threats to the Union, principally from the Scot tish National Party is doubted.It is on that basis that Liz Truss, ‘working-class’ and educated at a state school, has emerged as the Tory front-runner among the Tory membership, who will decide the issue. She has had an interesting political journey, from Liberal Democrat, anti-monarchy, ‘Remainer’, to ‘heir to Thatcher’. She is not a good or slick presenter, but she is becoming in creasingly more confident and relaxed in public. She exudes the zeal of the convert, who is keen to stress the thought she has had to put into bringing her to the ideo logical position she now holds. Although under attack by number of economists, and Rishi Sunak, she argues for immediate tax cuts to stimulate the economy and go for the ‘growth agenda’, which she believes must be a core Tory objective. This would certainly help families but is fundamentally aimed at re-shaping the economy. She would also have to introduce some measures to tackle the cost of living ‘crisis’, but they would be tar geted.

She has a good track record in delivering Brexit advantages, particularly with securing trade deals, but would be much more aggressive in taking Britain fur ther away from the EU, possibly including the ECHR, than Boris or Rishi appeared to be prepared to do, and would tackle the issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol head-on. She is very robust on Ukraine and Russia, on the threat from China and a firm supporter of NATO, the Trans-Atlantic link, defence spending, and energy security.

While not a climate-change sceptic, she is not con vinced that the West should beggar itself while Russia and China remain threats, nor that we should be threat ening to thwart the aspirations of so many people in those parts of the world where demographic growth re mains high. She is gritty and could be a tough opponent for Labour as a “working class woman’, albeit she went to Oxford.

There will be no ‘honeymoon period’, and the new PM will face a relentless barrage from Remainers, the mainstream media, the Unions, and the EU. While an 80-seat majority is difficult to overcome in a single elec tion, a combination of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the nationalist parties will seek to form an official, ficial coalition, which they will then use to try and change the electoral sys tem of Britain, and to challenge the Union, while embarking on a programme of socialist economic measures. The stakes could not be higher, particularly giv en the turmoil of the international scene and the paucity of strong leaders in the West.

Given these conditions, many believe that Liz Truss, may well be the best option, if she can gather a competent and committed team around her.

LAST MAN STANDING

To astute political observers in countries struggling to live up to their democratic ideals, Kenya has many object lessons.

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S urrounded by Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania, Kenya is a solitary para gon for democracy. It occupies a strategic loca tion on the east coast of Africa, flanking the crucial sea lanes emanating from the oil-rich Persian Gulf. Therefore, what transpired in Kenya’s recent strong ly contested elections, is important not only for the country and the region but also for the stability of the larger global community.

The elections were keenly watched as this former British colony has for nearly six decades preserved democratic tra ditions in this corner of Africa whilst all around it, democ racy was sullied by civil strife, authoritarian regimes and a flood of Islamic fundamentalism. In fact, Kenya ranks, along with South Africa and Nigeria, as the most significant na tions that are islands of stability in a largely unstable Africa.

The election results were announced after a week of vot ing on August 15th. The chaotic scenes at the huge National Tallying Centre of the Election Commission indicated the deep divisions within Kenyan polity.

Representatives of both parties supervising the count ing exchanged blows on live TV as police and soldiers tried to restore order, and foreign observers were ushered out to safety. When the Commission members came to the micro phone to voice their views, out of seven members, four dis agreed publicly with the election results, calling the entire process “opaque.”

Kenya’s incumbent Deputy President William Ruto, 55, of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), was declared

However, there is a silver lining; the incumbent, President Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Jomo Kenyatta, (in power for the last nine years), has obeyed the constitutional demand to stand down after two terms. He has followed two of his predecessors in the office, a fact that indicates the strength of Kenyan democracy, which is in sharp contrast to its neighbours and reinforces hopes for Kenya’s democratic future. Strengthening of Kenyan democracy is vital for keeping alive democratic aspirations in entire Africa.

President-Elect by a razor-thin majority of two percentage points. As protesters poured out on the streets and angri ly refused to accept the verdict of the election commission against their candidate Raila Odinga, who, in his fifth at tempt at the Presidency has been thwarted again, some say by luck while others say by manipulation.

Mr Odinga has recourse to legal challenges through the Supreme Court against the verdict of the Election Commis sion. His running mate, Martha Karu made their intentions clear in a tweet, “It is not over until it is over,” she wrote.

As smoke clouds rose over urban localities with support ers of Odinga’s Declaration of Unity Alliance, there were fears of a replay of the aftermath of the 2017 elections when there was a bloodbath on Kenyan streets. The UN and the U.S., a close ally and economic benefactor of Kenya, called for peace and asked all parties to work together.

FREEDOM HARD WON

Christened British East Africa, Kenya won indepen dence from Great Britain in 1963 after years of armed rebellion and political strife. However, one striking difference in Kenya’s path to independence in relation to similarly placed countries of those times was the ultra-violent ‘Mau Mau Insurgency’, which lasted for nearly a decade, right up to independence. A conserva tive estimate puts the death toll to nearly 11,000 insur gents, with over 1000 by hangings alone and, untold war crimes by both parties.

The counter-insurgency operation conducted by the British Army, in which the British Gurkhas played a piv otal role, became the blueprint for all counter-insurgen cies waged in the 20th Century. The violence was a con tributing factor in forcing the British out of the country, despite thousands of white settlers enjoying ownership of a large chunk of prime arable land in the most fertile regions and scenic game savannahs.

Mr Jomo Kenyatta, called the ‘Father of the Nation’, who suffered long imprisonments, became the first president of Kenya and ruled till 1978, laying its demo cratic foundations. He was also an active member of the Non-Aligned Movement and a well-recognised figure in the international fora of the 1960s. He was followed by Daniel Arap Moi, who became Kenya’s longest-running President till he was banned from standing in elections in 2002. During President Moi’s tenure, the constitution was changed from a one-party system to a multiparty one, in 1992. Despite the failed military coup of 1982,

democratic traditions continued to thrive in Kenya, with the nuances of tribal and ethnic politics.

Sadly, violence has become an inherent part of Kenyan politics, especially after the constitution was changed in 1992, allowing multiparty politics. In 2007, as per official figures, 1400 people were killed in post-elec tion fighting, and rampaging mobs displaced over half a million. Similarly, in 2017, there were again accusations of count fixing, leading to violent clashes claiming at least 16 lives. In 2017, the judiciary had stepped in by or dering a re-run, thus bringing the violence to a halt. This time again, the country appears to be heading down the same street unless national institutions and friends of Kenya, like the UK, and the U.S., forcefully step in to cool tempers.

However, there is a silver lining; the incumbent, President Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Jomo Kenyatta, (in power for the last nine years), has obeyed the consti tutional demand to stand down after two terms. He has followed two of his predecessors in the office, a fact that indicates the strength of Kenyan democracy, which is in sharp contrast to its neighbours and reinforces hopes for Kenya’s democratic future.

THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

Kenyan politics are essentially based on tribal loyal ties between the two largest regions-Mount Kenya and the Rift Valley. Raila Odinga’s Mount Kenya region has over 5.77 million votes and has produced many aspir ing presidential candidates. Mount Kenya dwarfs the

Rift Valley, to which Mr Roto belongs, as it has merely 2.2 million eligible voters. There has been a widespread feeling that the central government has always discrim inated against the people of the Rift Valley, especially after the post-2017 election violence.Both the leading presidential candidates, Mr William Ruto (Deputy Pres ident for the last nine years) and Mr Raila Odinga, have a patchy reputation.

Mr Ruto, the President-elect of the Kalenjin tribal group, was indicted by the International Criminal Court for the violence perpetrated against the Kalenjin tribe after the 2007 elections. His critics accuse him of being a closet authoritarian who would make Kenya even less democratic.Mr Raila Odinga is a seasoned campaigner who has been a long-time opponent of the current Pres ident and has been largely responsible for invoking vio lence whenever he has lost at the hustings.

As per Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Gover nance Programme, in its recent political history, Kenya has witnessed major realignments in tribal coalitions for greater political power. In 2013 and 2017, President Kenyatta won by harnessing an alliance between his parent Central Region and Ruto’s Rift Valley vehement ly opposed by Mr Odinga’s Mount Kenya base. In 2022, Kenyatta publicly supported Odinga in the presidential elections in a surprising move.

THE INDIAN CONNECTION

Kenya has a strong Indian connection, although not always pleasant. For the construction of the deadly railway line from the Kenyan coastline to the Ugandan interior, to enable the exploitation of the wealth of Afri ca, the British colonists brought around 32,000 Indian indentured labourers between 1896 and 1901. Over 2500 labourers died, many from the notorious man-eating li ons of Tsavo, a death rate of four per mile of track laid. Many of these labourers stayed behind and called in their relatives and family.

By independence, most of the non-agricultural busi ness was in Indian hands in all major urban centres, a fact that did not go unnoticed. After independence and till the early 1970s, there was resentment against In dians ,and thousands who possessed British passports migrated to Great Britain while those not as fortunate returned to India. From a high of nearly 200,000, the South Asian population in Kenya dwindled to a low of 78,000 in 1979.

Today, approximately 100,000 Kenyans are of South Asian origin, making them less than one per cent of the population. In 2017, the present President Uthuru Kenyatta, son of late Jomo Kenyatta, declared the Asian community as Kenya’s 44th tribe in recognition of their contribution to the nation since its independence.

PROGNOSIS

Writing for the Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Programme, Ms Saskia Brechenmacher, a PhD candidate at the University of Cambridge and Nan

jira Sambuli, a fellow in the Technology and Internation al Affairs, called Kenyan political parties “organisation ally weak, with political leaders who often access power through personal bargains struck behind closed doors with these marriages of convenience tending to frag ment once they have served their electoral purpose.” Given that no single ethnic group enjoys a nationwide electoral majority, this state of affairs is unlikely to go away in the near future.

Mr Ruto, the President-elect, will have a full plate if he survives the legal challenge Mr Odinga is sure to mount. Like the rest of the world, Kenya too is in the throes of significant economic hardships, with the com mon man facing rising prices and ever-present corrup tion in every aspect of daily life. While Kenyan democ racy has been severely buffeted from all sides, especially by the rising tribal pressures, somehow, it has survived with considerable support and sympathy from the West. But it is a long and bumpy road ahead for Kenya.

Over the years, there have been political changes that have added to Kenyan resilience. From a single party to a multiparty system, although adding to the ca cophony, made it difficult for the dynastic rule of the Kenyatta family to become a permanent feature. Simi larly, constitutional amendments have taken place that has reduced the powers of the central government in Nairobi, devolving greater administrative authority to the 47 subnational governments. Also, the role of wom en in Kenyan politics has increased considerably in the last two decades.

However, as mentioned earlier, the transfer of pow er has always been as per constitutional norms, albeit accompanied by bloodshed due to political violence. Thankfully, the Kenyan military, structured along Brit ish lines, has largely remained confined to the barracks under civilian control, except for the violent outburst of 1982 by the Air Force. The judiciary, too, like the British, complete with wigs for legal luminaries, has asserted its independence and taken on the executive when the Constitution has been at risk, especially during Presi dent Kenyatta’s decade-long rule.

CURSED BY ITS RICHES

Mediation efforts by the U.S. in Congo are yet another attempt to diffuse tension in a volatile and resource-rich region.

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When we refer to Congo, it generally en compasses two independent countries bordering the great Congo River in Cen tral Africa.

The larger of the two is the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in the southeast, with its capital at Kinsha sa and formerly known as Zaire or Congo Kinshasa. DRC is surrounded by the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, Angola, and the Repub lic of Congo and has the Atlantic Ocean on its West. It is the second largest country in Africa, with a population of over 90 million; it was the personal fiefdom of Belgian King Leopold II in the 19th century with the grandiose title of ‘the Congo Free State.’

The smaller one is the Republic of Congo (ROC), in the northwest with its capital at Brazzaville, earlier called ‘Con go Brazzaville”, an erstwhile French colony.Congo has been beset by strife, violence and political upheavals. Its treasure trove of resources makes it an attractive arena for outside power rivalry, especially for its erstwhile colonists like Belgium and France. During the Cold War, it had become another flash point between the West and the Soviet bloc, leading to widespread bloodshed and mayhem.

Despite the distraction of war in eastern Europe, both U.S. and Russia have been reaching out to the Congo region. Recent efforts by the Russian Foreign Minister in several African countries were followed by a visit by the U.S. Secre tary of State Antony Blinken, triggering fears of intensified big power rivalry in the African continent. China is already a major player in the region with huge investments in infra structure and mining.

This renewed conflict is at a dangerous place in a volatile time. While the government in Congo remains weak, it is surrounded by armed groups, both Congolese as well as from neighbouring countries. There are constantly shifting allies which make for an environment where no one trusts the other. The threat of regional destabilisation is not far, with regional states fighting out their conflicts on the DRC’s territory or through Congolese proxies and engaging in constantly shifting alliances.

A CLIMATE OF MISTRUST

Congo has a deadly mix of in-fighting as well as unset tled disputes with its neighbours. A principal accused is Rwanda, and a turbulent tripartite struggle between Rwan da, DRC, and ROC forms the crux of the problem. During his three-nation tour of Africa, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a call to the leaders of Rwanda and the DRC to cease armed backing groups within eastern Congo.

It is estimated that more than 130 armed groups are op erating in eastern Congo, making it a veritable battleground for militias while much mineral wealth is smuggled out of the resource-rich region. Most of these groups are support ed by the Congolese government or other African nations.

“Any entry of foreign forces into the DRC must be done transparently, with the consent of the DRC, deconflict ed from the UN mission, and pre-notified to the Security Council, consistent with the U.N. resolution,” emphasised

Mr Blinken in a press conference with reference to United Nations peacekeeping mission in eastern Con go, in which India is a major troop contributor.

In the long-standing dispute, however, there are no easy answers. Rwanda accuses Kinshasa of providing sanctuary to Hutu fighters involved in the 1994 Rwan dan Tutsi genocide.

DRC counters by accusing Kigali of meddling in its affairs and being a party to the illegal exploitation of its resources. This has the support of the U.S., which claims that there were ‘credible reports’ of Rwanda government support to the rebel M-23 (March 23 Move ment), including Rwandan military officers acting as ad visers to the rebels. This has been further corroborated by the United Nations Mission for the Stabilisation of the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), espe cially in the North Kivu region, where the M23 has been active.

The M23 is demanding the implementation of a 2013 Nairobi Accord granting amnesty to fighters from al leged war crimes and reintegration into the Congolese army. The Congolese government, however, has de clared the group a terrorist organisation.

Rwanda has twice attempted to invade Congo through various proxies, first the CNDP and the M23. For some time, support for the M23 had ceased after strong international pressure, following which the M23 was defeated by a Force International Brigade deployed alongside MONUSCO.

There was a brief thaw in 2021 when the Presidents of Congo and Rwanda signed bilateral agreements on investments, taxation, and the joint exploitation of gold.

This renewed conflict is at a dangerous place in a volatile time. While the government in Congo remains weak, it is surrounded by armed groups, both Congolese as well as from neighbouring countries. There are con stantly shifting allies which make for an environment where no one trusts the other.

The threat of regional destabilisation is not far, with regional states fighting out their conflicts on the DRC’s territory or through Congolese proxies and engaging in constantly shifting alliances.

THE LARGER CATASTROPHE

Amidst decades of bloodletting, famine, general lawlessness and paralysed governance, Congolese peo ple have no choice but to flee their native lands. The Norwegian Refugee Council called it the world’s most neglected refugee crisis in 2021; more than 5.5 million people remain internally displaced in Congo.

M23 forces have allegedly made attacks on civilians, which has, in turn, led to anti-Rwanda protests and xe nophobic violence against Congolese Tutsis. Demilita risation in the region seems a difficult prospect. There are ongoing protests against the UN peacekeeping mis

sion for failing to contain the violence despite being in Congo for over 20 years, and in a recent incident, two Indian peacekeepers were killed in mob violence.

Human rights violations have been a cause of grave concern in Congo, alongside the illegal exploitation of natural resources. The most famous case was that of Paul Rusesabagina, who was made an international hero in the Hollywood movie ‘Hotel Rwanda’ in which he is portrayed as a messiah saving hundreds of Tutsis. Lured into the country by the Rwandan secret service, Rusesabagina, a long-standing critic of Rwandan Presi dent Paul Kagame, is now serving a 25 year sentence on terrorism charges.

US-KIGALI RELATIONSHIP

Often dubbed as the ‘African Israel,’ for its belea guered location in Central Africa, surrounded by much larger hostile neighbours and for its proclivity to carry out military incursions into its neighbours’ territories, the U.S. and Rwanda have had a tumultuous relation ship.

There was widespread popular support for the gal lant Rwandans (the Tutsi minority) after the great 1994 Rwandan genocide when it became a close military ally of the U.S. under the Clinton Administration. Howev er, during the tenure of President Obama, Washington showed its frustration with Kigali’s relentless meddling in the affairs of its neighbours, including the support to the blood thirsty M23.

U.S. military aid was cut to Rwanda. However, Rwandan-US relations remain strong, and despite his detractors accusing Paul Kagame as a despot, he re mains the cleanest and most efficient leader in Central Africa, which is otherwise a cesspool of corruption at the highest echelons. In its long-term perspective, the U.S. sees Rwanda as “its man in Central Africa,” a re gion which has a large Chinese footprint, with the Rus sians showing a great deal of interest. Assessment

The U.S. Secretary of State, Blinken’s Africa trip, might not have resulted in significant breakthroughs, but it helped in maintaining peace and dialogue at the centre of the deep-rooted conflict. If Kinshasa and Kigali can come to an understanding to stabilise their relationship, it will be a win-win for Washington as it will not allow external players like China and Russia to muddy the waters.

The long-suffering people of the Congo basin see no end to their nightmarish existence. Their natural wealth has become their biggest curse, and now that it is known that they have the largest deposit of rare earths and cobalt, in the absence of a clean and strong central government, their agony will continue with little respite.

TRACES OF A BYGONE SPRING

The heady days of the Arab Spring are fading memories in the collective consciousness of Tunisia, plagued by political meanderings and economic woes.

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Tunisia- the originator of Arab Spring- remains today a prisoner of an illegitimate autocracy. When a wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings surged around the Middle East and North Africa in 2010 and 2011, defying authoritarian re gimes in the region, it raised the hopes of millions for a new dawn in democratic systems.

Then came the 2011 Jasmine Revolution, also referred to as the ‘Second Arab Spring’, which forced the then President to flee, leading to free elections. These protest movements saw an interconnected struggle for democracy across the re gion, with a push to end corruption and improve citizens’ quality of life.

Not all has turned out as it was hoped, either in Tunisia or in the rest of the Arab world. It is hard to even pinpoint where Tunisia is currently in its political evolution. Amidst political circles, the verdict is that Tunisia remains entirely in the grips of an emerging and illegitimate autocracy. The President’s team is all in praise of their bold constitutional project. The Tunisian public remains in limbo, plagued by economic distress and an uncertain future.

It is important to study political events unfolding in Tu nisia as it could be the harbinger of things to follow in the larger Arab world.

THE GROWTH OF STRONGER UNIONS

The steady growth of unions, including security force

Not all has turned out as it was hoped, either in Tunisia or in the rest of the Arab world. It is hard to even pinpoint where Tunisia is currently in its political evolution. Amidst political circles, the verdict is that Tunisia remains entirely in the grips of an emerging and illegitimate autocracy. The President’s team is all in praise of their bold constitutional project. The Tunisian public remains in limbo, plagued by economic distress and an uncertain future.

unions, is a post-revolutionary innovation in Tunisia. They were formed in early-to-mid 2011 as a response to the risk acutely felt by security officers from citizens and the gov ernment. The activities and influence of these unions grew substantially. Unions were able to gain higher salaries, bet ter conditions, and influence deployment patterns and pro motional opportunities.

These unions have become very powerful, exerting influ ence over the government on a range of issues dealing with promotion, pay and deployment, as well as getting involved in political debates, primarily around security issues. The unions now support the President’s efforts to enact a new, more presidential-focused constitution.

Over time, the unions have developed as a parallel cen tre of power, influencing both political and internal debates. They were able to check criticisms of the security sector and

began to operate outside the control of the ministry of interior.

Recently, the President’s decision to freeze wag es and cut subsidies as part of the government deal to secure a $4bn loan from the International Monetary Fund attracted a spate of strikes. The economic reforms chalked out by the President have been viewed as too harsh. The package includes freezing wages and em ployment in public jobs, lifting subsidies, and privatis ing public companies.

In particular, the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) is questioning the reforms as they have been rolled out without consultation. The ensuing strikes paralysed the country’s three million strong public-sec tor workforce, thereby grinding public transport, air ports, sea ports and government offices to a halt.

With the country already experiencing 18 per cent unemployment and inflation at 7.8 per cent, aggravated by soaring energy and wheat prices caused by the war in Ukraine, the reforms became unbearable for the com mon man.

The brewing tension between the government and the UGTT has clearly become a stumbling block for ne gotiations with the IMF. The union has withdrawn its support to Saied, who unperturbed continues consoli dating his power in what his opponents have called an ongoing “coup”.

ECONOMY DERAILING THE POLITY

President Saied’s principal aim has been to redraw Tunisia’s 2014 constitution to reflect a “bottom-up” model of democracy.

Unfortunately, this emphasis has removed the fo cus from a declining economy, deep-set unemployment and widespread corruption. After dismissing the parlia ment, President Saied seems close to setting up a oneman government, aside from the one body which stands in his way – the UGTT. The UGTT, which once backed the President, has now become increasingly critical of

his approach to power.

Analysts argue that these rapidly shifting dynamics in Tunisia necessitate a strong presence for internation al actors to design reforms and capacity-building pro grammes for security offices. It is essential to focus on conceptualising reform of the security sector along with union members, officials and civil society.

In an editorial, Britain’s respected paper The Fi nancial Times wrote, “Tunisia needs help instead of austerity. The West must do more to keep Tunisia’s de mocracy alive. It is not only Tunisa that has been curi ously conservative in its response to the demands of the revolution. The International Monetary Fund, called in amid faltering growth, has too - prescribing the bitter pill of structural adjustment to a country beset by social inequality and navigating a treacherous political tran sition.

The IMF cannot be expected to treat Tunisia very differently from other patients. But if Europe and Amer ica believe that Tunisia is an exceptional case and that a narrowly technocratic answer to the demands of the revolution is politically unfeasible, they could bring more support.

Assessment

Events in Tunisia have a habit of spiralling out of its borders and spilling over the entire region. Therefore, it is essential for the international community to closely monitor the political situation in Tunisia before rolling out generous economic packages which will only strengthen autocratic regimes.

Tunisia is a peculiar example of labour unions dominated not by factory workers or port handlers, but by policemen and security apparatus members who will divert from their true objective of securing labour interests. The UGTT has become a political force meddling in issues far beyond its charter. This can only spell chaos and greater political instability in the country.

DOES THE MIDDLE EAST NEED NATO 2.0?

An ‘Arab NATO’ has often been spoken about, but its actualisation is nothing short of a theological and political minefield.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

For some time now, a narrative has been played out about rekindling the idea of a security alliance in the Middle East that rests on the strong shoulders of Israel and partners with reliable moderate Arab nations. While some call it a ‘Mid dle Eastern NATO’, the fact remains that it has the strong support of Israel’s western allies, principally the U.S.

The spectre of a nuclear-armed Iran remains the driving force for such a move.

AN ARAB NATO?

At the end of June, CBC reported an interview with the Jordanian King Abdullah II, in which it quoted the King as saying, “I would be one of the first people that would en dorse a Middle East NATO.” This generated a lot of contro versy even though he gave no indication that he would join an alliance wherein his arch-enemy Israel was a member too.

This statement was widely discussed in the Arab media, and writing for Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, its former Ed itor in Chief, Mr Tariq Al-Homayed, raised the question of whether this idea originated from the recently promulgated American “Deterring Enemy Forces and Enabling National Defense Act” (DEFEND Act).

The Act was passed with bipartisan support and called for a regional military alliance in the Middle East to counter the military influence of Iran in coordination with region

The larger question is whether such a military alliance is politically feasible in the restive Middle East, especially for its people, and whether it will benefit Israel by promoting the harmonious co-existence of Zionist and Islamic ummahs in West Asia and North Africa.

al powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Iraq, Jordan and Israel. All named nations are already strong military allies of the U.S., with only Israel being the elephant in the room! The Bill has directed Pentagon to “identify an architecture and develop an acquisition approach for certain countries in the Middle East to implement an integrated air and mis sile defence capability to protect the people, infrastructure, and territory of such countries from the cruise and ballistic missiles, manned and unmanned aerial systems, and rocket attacks from Iran.” However, there is no Article 5 like that in the NATO Charter that calls for “collective defence.”

At around the same time, the Israeli Defence Minis ter, Benny Gantz, announced that Israel had joined a U.S. led network called the Middle East Air Defence Alliance (MEAD). However, he too declined to name other members of the MEAD or whether the scope of the MEAD went be yond purely air defence.

Further fuel was added to the story when the Wall Street Journal reported meetings taking place in Egypt between senior defence officials from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain (all American allies) and Israel to discuss defence cooperation.

Apparently, President Biden, during his visit to Ri yadh in July, also encouraged the creation of a regional defence arrangement.

THE GENESIS OF AN IDEA

As the shadow of the Shia Crescent has lengthened over the Sunni-dominated Middle East, the ties be tween Israel and many of its erstwhile Arab foes have slowly changed for the better under the tutelage of Washington. These were most prominent during the Trump Administration when crafted principally by President Trump’s son-in-law and former real estate developer Jared Kushner, the Abraham Accords was signed by Israel, UAE and the U.S., with Bahrain joining in later.

While these agreements were mostly about techno logical and commercial exchanges, military connota tions always underpin such agreements.

Home to over 317 million Muslims across 22 nations united by their faith, the Arab nationalist and unity movement from the 1950s has failed to translate Arab unity into a federation or union between Arab states. The political union between Egypt and Syria as the United Arab Republic in the early 1960s did not survive very long.

However, strategic groups among the Arab nations have taken the form of the Arab League and Gulf Co operation Council (it has a military arm, the Peninsula Shield Force, which has 40,000 personnel loaned by different nations) from time to time. However, these were indifferent efforts with very little military effec tiveness. The inability of Arab nations to coordinate their military efforts was cruelly exposed during the 1967 and 1973 Israel-Arab conflicts. Two proposals of military coalitions, one by the Arab League in 2015 and by President Trump in 2017, failed to take root.

The U.S., traditionally the guarantor of security in the oil-rich Middle East, has been slowly retreating and leaving behind a vacuum, as is visible in Syria, Lebanon and even Iraq. There is a concern in the Arab camp that they can no longer outsource their security to western powers and must turn to solutions that are more re gional. If the danger looms from Iran, then the only mil itary power with the technology and expertise capable of confronting that threat is Israel. Hence, the growing desire to somehow integrate Israel into a military alli ance in the Middle East.

The larger question is whether such a military alli ance is politically feasible in the restive Middle East, es pecially for its people, and whether it will benefit Israel by promoting the harmonious co-existence of Zionist and Islamic ummahs in West Asia and North Africa.

In a region where the regimes are notoriously au thoritarian and facing internal unrest, military cooper ation with Israel without an amicable solution for the Palestinian people may inflict a high political cost as it would be nothing short of legitimising the Zionist State

of Israel.

Iran has a vote, too. It would not take kindly to such a military alliance which threatens its very existence and will do its best to sabotage it through public unrest, dis information, and acts of terror. Its considerable conven tional military strength and firepower, coupled with its host of Shiite militias (and a nuclear arsenal?), makes Iran formidable even when unprovoked.

There is a lack of consensus among different Arab countries when it comes to dealing with Iran. While some clearly perceive Iran as a threat, other nations with diplomatic ties to Iran refuse to join an anti-Tehran grouping. They are also divided on the course of action to contain Iran- military action or diplomacy.

Another roadblock is a lack of a clear mission or vi sion for such a militaristic alliance- is it to combat surg ing Iranian influence in the region, or is it to deter and respond to acts of military aggression in the region or otherwise? Deep mistrust among monarchs and varying internal security arrangements make intelligence shar ing and coordination difficult.

Arab regimes have shown themselves not to be very good at thinking through a problem in its entirety be fore plunging into a solution; there could be no better example than the morass created in Yemen.

From Israel’s point of view, such an alliance would be the next best thing to getting its existence formal ly recognised even without the resolution to the larger Palestinian issue. It would like to leverage the common concern of Iran amongst the otherwise ideologically di verse states to set up a military coalition that will rely heavily on Israel’s arsenal like the Iron Dome to keep the Iranian threat at bay.

Assessment

The inherent trust deficit between the Sunni monarchies makes meaningful and long-term cooperation on the issue of Iran difficult, even after setting aside each kingdom’s varying political priorities, individual relations with Tehran and diverse foreign policies.

The ongoing peace dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, currently being mediated by Iraq and Oman, appears to be on track. This could lead to the Kingdom changing its approach to dealing with Iran from provocation to negotiation.

While Israel favours a military pact for the Middle East, its unabated strikes against civilian targets in Palestinian-run territories make it difficult for Arab regimes to align themselves with it, especially on a military plane. Unless Israel takes a bold and out-ofbox step to finally settle the Palestine issue, all talks of its military alliance with its Arab neighbours will remain in the realm of optimistic planning only.

Can capitalism overcome its inherent trait of ‘survival of the fittest’ to become more equitable?

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

MAKING CAPITALISM WORK FOR EVERYONE RESEARCH TEAM

C apitalism has come to dominate the global economic order, but it is not without its hic cups. In fact, many of these missing elements have come to the fore upsetting the delicate balance on which the economic system rests. A glaring gap within capitalism is the inability of everyone to par ticipate equally and reap benefits from what the eco nomic system offers.

In order for capitalism to succeed, it must take steps to counter systemic inequality. It isn’t merely a problem that the poorest are unable to participate effectively in the sys tem. It is also that the system is itself under threat from ris ing inequality which can erode social order.

Capitalism has come to dominate the world economic order largely based on its positive impact on prosperity and well-being. At the same time, it has left some portions of the population behind, resulting in great levels of disparity and inequality. While the gap between low-income coun tries and advanced economies has reduced, it is reported that two-thirds of global inequality is now due to differences within countries.

HOW DOES CAPITALISM WORK?

In many ways, capitalism’s functioning model gener ates inequalities. There are multiple layers in which the economic model works. Globalisation generates a division of production which often supports the lowest cost labour generating downward pressure on wages. Other factors which interplay with globalisation include skill levels and local contextual factors such as the country’s level of de

Capitalism has come to dominate the world economic order largely based on the positive impact on prosperity and well-being it has created. At the same time, it has left some portions of the population behind, resulting in great levels of disparity and inequality. While the gap between low-income countries and advanced economies has reduced, it is reported that two-thirds of global inequality is now due to differences within countries.

velopment and industry structure. Racial, ethnic, national, gender, and religious features form important cross connec tions in this mix.

This complex, interwoven web of issues has resulted in inequality where the world’s top one percent has nearly 20 times the wealth of the bottom 50 percent.

CREATING AN INCLUSIVE SYSTEM

There have been various systematic reviews of the func tioning of capitalism, providing criticism and suggestions for the improvement of this model. The Trilateral Commis sion convened in 2021 is one such leading effort providing constructive remedies based on the workings of capitalism across the globe. The Task Force comprises distinguished business leaders, scholars, and policymakers from around the world.

An analysis of systemic and rising inequality across the globe has demonstrated that eliminating such a deep-seated

malaise requires active collaboration between all insti tutions - the public, private and NGOs. Global examples show how government investment in planning and in frastructure is critical to enabling affordable mixed-use housing, mass transit, parks and recreation areas, and digital access. Businesses can also contribute to a fair start through benefits such as paid leave policies and other assistance like onsite daycare. Nonprofits plug in the gap for effective delivery of ‘fair start’ programs backed by state funding.

A strong start to minimising inequality should origi nate from the beginning! The Commission suggests pri oritising investment and ensuring a fair start to optimise equality of opportunity. Early investment in a child’s life plays a critical role in promoting greater equity.

Governments must play an active role ranging from prenatal education and healthcare to nutritional sup port. Across the globe, these have spanned state-sub sidised early childcare programs and cash payments to qualified families in more social democratic countries to indirectly provide financial support through tax pol icies.

Legacy barriers which inhibit individuals from achieving their full potential form an important nig gling feature. A whole body of research has reviewed the functioning of interventions aimed at minimising lega cy barriers ranging from women’s literacy and health, financial education, improving diversity in business programmes etc.

Economic inequality forms the most visible feature across the globe. This issue is further exacerbated by the problem of stagnating wages. In the past few de cades, corporate profitability has not necessarily result ed in wage growth creating income inequality. Trade union partnerships with governments play an effective role in managing a ‘people-focused’ business approach by offering new skill-building and job services to their members.

Examples from history illustrate how efforts to pro vide workers with an equity stake increase workers’ engagement in their jobs—and thus their productivity. Workers can own stocks in their companies through a variety of schemes such as profit-sharing or pension plans or through schemes to share ownership.

In an effort to enhance wages, it is equally important to place emphasis on credentials which contribute to ef fective employment. These need to be altered to cover professional certification and licensing reforms that improve workforce mobility. The education curriculum needs to include more than just degrees for physicians, engineers, and other high-risk or technical fields.

Along with the private sector, the Government is an important and often leading participant in the fight against inequality. Governments need to facilitate ease of access by eliminating the administrative burden, which acts as a tax on the poor. These hurdles also offer opportunities for corruption.

MAKING THE RICH PAY

Taxation is one of the most powerful tools to enact redistribution of wealth in society. Workings of many governments across geographies reinforce the belief that closing loopholes in the tax system are directed to ensure that the rich pay their share of taxes in the first place. Some form of wealth taxation has been suggested as necessary to address the deepest sources of inequal ity in our societies.

In this regard, cross-government cooperation is also essential to ensure that the wealthy don’t merely move their wealth to another more favourable tax juris diction. Governments will need to intensify their inter national tax coordination, including standard setting, information sharing, and enforcement. This must be made a part of the globalised financial system so that one country’s public policies are not undermined by tax competition by another country. There have been efforts to introduce a 15 per cent minimum global cor porate tax.

Addressing inheritances through taxation has been a complex effort globally. It sends out a strong social mes sage on the value placed on equality of opportunity but ends up being a tough balancing act between individual freedom and social good. Many OECD countries, for ex ample, have narrowed inheritance tax bases. Experience shows that governments should explore the potential to increase both equity and revenue while minimising ad ministrative complexities through inheritance taxation reform.

EDUCATION FOR UPLIFTMENT

As an umbrella feature, education plays a transfor mative role in enabling change and reducing inequali ties. The Trilateral Commission and other analysts have noted that education has acted as a fuel for previous stages of capitalism; in particular compulsory primary education in the 19th century and post–World War II expansions of higher education.

The next stage of capitalism, touted as the fifth stage, could propel high-quality lifelong learning for all. This type of learning will be designed to fit an individu al’s personalised needs by role, experience, age, sector, industry, and geography. Digital innovations form the core of this program, powered by AI-enabled multi-lan guage translation. Such a program has been in motion in Arizona State University’s plans to reach 100 million more students this decade through the innovative use of AI technologies. This ambitious goal has a set of in frastructure and digital capabilities which already exist or can be put together soon. Such an ambitious plan, of course, will need a number of initiatives which go be yond government efforts to include private enterpris es, educational institutions, governments, non-profits, and entrepreneurs. This lifelong learning exercise has been prioritised by the Trilateral Commission as a game changer, which can transform the path of other goals and affect the transition to a sustainable and equitable capitalist society.

DANGEROUS LIAISONS

As long as mankind indulges in its natural urge to fight and kill, the business of illicit arms will thrive.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

The arms trade remains one of the most lu crative businesses on the globe. The Stock holm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) puts the sales of weapons and military ser vices by the 100 biggest arms companies at a record $ 531 bn in 2020. In a market so vast and lucrative, in which liberal democracies like the U.S., UK, and France are literally making a financial killing, it is natural for private commercial operators to join the bandwagon, albeit below the margins of legality.

The illicit arms bazaar has been showcased in many bestselling books and Hollywood bestsellers. The recent controversy about the exchange proposed by the U.S. for the release of seven-time American All-star National Basketball Association (NBA) player Brittney Garner with the Russian arms dealer, Viktor Bout, has only refocused attention on the flourishing underground arms trade. Incidentally, Mr Viktor Bout is the chief protagonist in a much-sold book named “The Merchant of Death, “ published in 2007 by Douglas Farah and Stephen Braun. The recent controversy has spiked the sales of the paperback edition once again!

AS OLD AS HISTORY ITSELF

The path of colonisation and the spread of illegal arms runs almost parallel. European dealers began smuggling weapons into American, African, and, to a limited extent, Asian markets in the sixteenth century. While weapons tech nology spread in general, and several nations established manufacturing capacity as gunpowder nations, West Euro pean hubs emerged as the primary arms providers across Europe and beyond. Western European governments drove the market due to advancements in weapon and powder in novations and their expanding worldwide trade networks.

The case of Viktor Bout also highlights the revival of private suppliers as a major force in the global weapons trade, as opposed to the country-to-country transactions that dominated the Cold War era. Most of the weapons which are illegally trafficked are leakages or leftovers from state-owned arsenals as make-shift markets like the one in Darra Adam Khel cannot generate the scale to quench global demand.

Europeans aimed to use developments in weapons technol ogy to expand their presence and earnings in the slave trade out of Africa. Among these western capitals, Portugal was the primary route of guns reaching Asia and Africa in the six teenth century, the centre of global trade routes. East Africa rose as the primary destination for imported weapons. It did so through trafficking because of the imperial drive for Af rica in the final quarter of the nineteenth century, with new private dealers and state governments taking on significant roles in the trade.

The Cold War competition between the Communist world and the West aided the growth of the global arma ments trade. Providing armaments and military equipment became one of the most potent tools in international diplo macy. Although Sam Cummings, the infamous arms tycoon, dominated the private business for millions of dollars, the Cold War arms boom of government-to-government weap ons trade functioned in the billions.

In an article written in the UN’s Africa Renewal magazine in 2011, Michael Fleshman describes how sovereign states sometime contribute to the proliferation of illegal arms. In

the 1970s, the white apartheid government of South Af rica distributed thousands of tons of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) to its white citizens and to re gional allies like Rhodesia, South West Africa and the Portuguese-run colonies of Mozambique and Angola. It is estimated that as many as 4 million illegal weapons found their way to South African civilians, both white and black. There is no way to trace the further spread of such a huge arsenal; these could have been transferred to any corner of Africa to fuel a fresh round of killing.

THE DARK WORLD OF THE ARMS BAZAAR

When people speak of ‘Arms Bazaar’, it invokes the image of the Darra Adam Khel arms market near the lawless Afghan border in Pakistan, where cheap ‘knock offs’ of any weapon in the world can be purchased at a fraction of the cost. However, operators like Victor Bout work at a much larger scale from corporate boardrooms and with the implicit backing of powerful government organisations. But Bout is only one amongst many in a long list in the Rogues Gallery and includes luminaries such as Basil Zaharoff, Prodromos Bodosakis-Athanasi ades, and Samuel Cummings.

Although the second-hand arms trade proved vast— and the illicit weapons trade proved challenging to con trol—the central money was found in developing and selling new weapons to governments. Sir Basil Zaharoff, the infamous Vickers sales agent, was possibly the world’s best-known armaments salesman during World War I. Zaharoff famously boasted to a London newspa per, “I started conflicts so that I could sell armaments to both sides. I must have sold more weaponry than any body else on the planet.”

Despite the pandemic, there was no let-up in the spread of SALW, especially through illicit means. “Some actors also used the worldwide shift in focus to step up their covert, irregular or unchecked supply of weapons and ammunition in theatres of conflict, leading to mas sive increases in new supplies at risk of diversion in con flict and post-conflict situations. Illegal markets, includ ing the market for illicit small arms and light weapons, continued to operate and adapt to the circumstances,” records the UN report.

Once militaries upgraded their small arms families, which is about once in two decades or so, millions of SALW became surplus. While the majority are melted down to recover the metal, many find their way through several intermediaries into the arms bazaar. For exam ple, the ubiquitous AK-47 assault rifle is the world’s most widely produced small arm, and millions of pieces are in circulation. An extremely robust and reliable weapon, it refuses to rust and die and continues to remain as lethal as its most modern sibling, despite decades of usage.

With each advancement in armaments, arms mer chants and military wheeler -dealers remain on the lookout to find caches and dumps of discarded obsolete weapons which will find their way into the trouble spots of Africa and the Middle East or Afghanistan at a nice profit.

Viktor Bout’s business career as a weapons dealer exposes much about globalisation in the post-Soviet, post-Cold War world era, much as Zaharoff, Bodosakis, and Cummings did in their time.

Working with the Soviet bloc’s abandoned military surplus, which unpaid or underpaid soldiers and com manders were only too eager to sell for quick cash, Bout funnelled the war through an intricate web of supply chains involving up to 30 different companies and os tensibly legitimate end-user certificates to deliver arms around the world. A revolving door between defence agencies and arms firms facilitates this military-indus trial complex.

The ability of the dark web to arm criminals and terrorists anonymously, as well as weak and obsessive individuals, is its most deadly component. It is boost ing the availability of better, modern guns at the same or reduced costs as offered on the street or in the black market.

However, it is improbable that the dark web would be able to supply a vast network of arms, and largescale terrorist operations and armed conflicts are un likely. But, it has the potential to become the platform of choice for individuals (e.g., “lone-wolf” terrorists) or small groups (e.g., gangs) to purchase weapons and ammunition. An example is the lone terrorist assailant in the 2016 Munich shooting who obtained weapons on the dark web.

THE HUMAN COST

In its 2021 report on Small Arms and Light Weap ons (SALW), the UN claimed that at least 176,095 ci vilian deaths were recorded in 12 of the world’s dead liest armed conflicts between 2015 and 2020. In 2020, five civilians per 100,000 people were killed in armed conflict, and one in seven of those was a woman or a child. Most civilian deaths were caused by small arms and light weapons (27 per cent) or by heavy weapons and explosive munitions (24 per cent). The death toll of armed violence occurring outside of conflict is even higher.

Assessment

The preceding five centuries of global gun trafficking demonstrate that gun markets are firmly ingrained in the worldwide environment. And like with earlier attempts to restrict the arms trade, recent UN arms embargoes have mostly failed to prevent access to weapons.

Illegal arms trafficking exacerbates conflicts, destabilizes society, and thwarts progress. To minimise the supply of illicit ammunition, a more reasoned approach to weapons-related markets, including examining region-specific impacts, leakages from the regulated to the unregulated market, and a greater understanding of the supplier-intermediatoruser sequence of the illegal trafficking in armaments, is required.

THE DIGITAL DEMOCRACY DILEMMA

Democracy is forever evolving whenever faced with challenges; digitalisation could be a unique opportunity as well as a serious threat to contend with.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Digitisation and democracy are two pillars of modern civilisation that must go hand in hand for the world to become a better place to live in.

Digitisation has enhanced the value of information, al lowing it to be shared with a global audience at the touch of a button almost instantaneously. Views, opinions, thoughts, philosophies, grievances, state suppressions, societal ineq uities and basic human foibles can be shared across natural and political boundaries, leading to the triggering of human passions and emotions which at times cannot be predicted or controlled.

Democracy needs the right kind of people with the right kind of thought process for the system to function smooth ly. Towards this end, digitisation represents both an oppor tunity and a threat to democracy. While the Internet gives access to the population living in remote, far-flung areas to have a say in the larger scheme of things, the manipulation of digital information can create a dysfunctional and dis torted narrative, serving only narrow vested interests and communities. This is a reality that every democracy is con fronting today, whether it be for electoral purposes or while dealing with pressing issues like war, societal conflicts, cli mate change and even a pandemic.

NO ESCAPE FROM DIGITALISATION

Digitisation has come to stay, and its influences, positive or negative, cannot be ignored or avoided.

Digitisation represents both an opportunity and a threat to democracy. While the internet gives access to the population living in remote, far-flung areas to have a say in the larger scheme of things, the manipulation of digital information can create a dysfunctional and distorted narrative, serving only narrow vested interests and communities.

Digitalisation has made progressive inroads into the public sphere using a range of electronic processes for pub lic participation in politics. From ballot paper scanning, electronic voting machines, online petitioning, virtual con sultation hubs to the widespread digitalisation of the public sphere – public participation in decision-making is becom ing increasingly digital.

On the face of it, digital participation can provide an important step in simplifying democratic participation. Increased civic participation helps to foster dialogue and enable unity and reconciliation in often polarised societies. Digitalisation can bring institutions closer to citizens and al low services to reach underserved populations. But this will happen only if the fruits of digitisation are available to all without favour or fear.

It can, however, also have a reverse impact if it is not well-structured. Digitalisation can lead to further deepen ing of existing inequalities and undermine democracies and social cohesion and infringe on human rights. Digital infor

mation is prone to misinformation, deep fakes, ma nipulation, and its distribution can be controlled so that the only message that is accessible is in the form that the apex power wishes to dictate. Examples are plenty of such manipulation of the digital world, both in authori tarian regimes and even in democracies.

WEAKENING DEMOCRACY?

Digitalisation does run some risks for democracies around the world. Commentators argue that the in creasing digitisation of democratic political structures has made democracies vulnerable to foreign interfer ence. Three main problem areas as a result of digitalisa tion include inauthenticity, data insecurity, and disinfor mation.

Liberal democracies pride themselves on inequitable participation, which digitalisation can further facilitate. But what happens to such liberal societies when hostile external powers and rogue internal actors use the same technology to create new facets, which are now being called ‘illiberal democracies.’ This term was coined by the famous journalist Fareed Zakaria in 1997. Zakaria defined it as a “democracy without constitutional lib eralism, producing centralised regimes, the erosion of liberty, ethnic competition, conflict and war.” Elector al democracy and civil liberties are handmaidens, but around the world, these two concepts seem to be rup turing. Scholars blame the readily available digital in formation and the ability to swamp people’s minds with such thoughts as the probable cause.

Digitalisation offers the possibility for unwanted foreign interference in a country’s domestic affairs with a shield. In 2016, the U.S. presidential election was al legedly marred by interference from Russia. The Mueller Report concluded that Russia’s Internet Research Agen cy and the GRU used digital tactics to ‘manage’ the elec tion and its results. A range of tools, including hacking,

leaking, bots, trolls, and deep fakes, were used on a mass scale to reach significant portions of the population.

As Ukraine dominated much of the world’s atten tion, it also demonstrates the extent to which polarisa tion is taking place. We seem to be witnessing a demo cratic backslide globally.

DIGITAL DILEMMAS

The digital dilemma we are faced with is whether we limit digitalisation in governance to protect our dem ocratic processes from foreign interference or do we embrace digitalisation to improve the nature and extent of public participation and engagement. This would, in turn create a public sphere which would be monopolised by the media.

There have been some attempts to solve the digi tal democracy dilemma in recent times. In the UK, the Brexit referendum was conducted through paper ballot papers, effectively safeguarding the process from direct interference. In Australia, too, hard copy ballots con tinue to be used in smaller constituencies for federal elections while digital mechanisms are used for count ing state-wide Senate votes in conjunction with human cross-checking. In the U.S. too, problems with electronic voting machines have prompted the use of supplemen tary paper trail procedures in some states. Analogue pro cesses offer protection against digital deficiencies and data insecurity.

Disinformation has become more prevalent and harder to detect in the digital era. The rise of social me dia has now come to characterise the ‘second wave’ of digital era governance. This medium is used actively by citizens, governments and even potentially foreign enti ties aiming to malign. Social media, therefore, runs the risk of being brushed aside by misleading or inaccurate information. Digitally-enabled disinformation, there

fore, acts as a powerful antidote to liberal democ racy as it challenges free and open communication and political expression. As a result, disinformation can, in fact, create a crisis of legitimacy whereby policy out puts, election outcomes, government, democratic pro cesses, and democracy itself can be violated.

As a result, widespread distrust of information has been created whereby ‘post-truth’ order where either anything goes, or correct information is disbelieved, resulting in political apathy. This has the potential to erode the foundations of a vibrant democracy gener ating a trust deficit and undermining political culture. Companies such as Google, Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit have been grappling with this problem on their social media platforms as they try to curb the spread of disinformation.

FIGHT FOR PRESERVING DEMOCRACY

A movement to strengthen democracy against mod ern malaise such as misinformation is gaining strength across Europe and the U.S. For most of recorded hu man history, since democracy has remained more of an anomaly, we must take pains to preserve and nourish it across the globe. We must continuously look to im prove our functioning democracy so that it fits as an ideal that we can all look up to.

The EU Action Plan on Human Rights and Democ racy 2020–2024 is the reference plan for external ac tions. It lays down clear challenges and opportunities concerning democratic governance due to the new, enhanced digital environment. The European Democ racy Action Plan, which is closely linked to the Human Rights and Democracy plan, prioritises election integri ty, media freedom and pluralism and intensifies efforts to combat disinformation. A broader effort aimed at strengthening civil society to detect and act on disin formation as well as assist civil society in pushing for legislation and policy reform towards democratic pro cesses.

In other parts of the world, too, digital participation has become an important step for enhancing demo cratic participation. In Brazil, Mudamos, meaning ‘we

change’, is a project which focuses on increasing citizen participation and democratic engagement. The project won the Social Impact Award in 2016 for creating a mo bile application that enables a new, secure and verifiable way for citizens to write draft bills which should be con sidered by the legislature. This is a blockchain technol ogy which brings transparency and authenticity to the process. The platform has been quite active and has re ceived more than 8,000 draft bill proposals.

In the U.S., the Obama Foundation has made a con certed effort to promote democracy worldwide. The Obama Foundation’s works across the globe show that while there is hope that digital technologies can solve al most anything, we must not push to apply them in every development project. Digitalisation must be viewed as a tool which, if used correctly, can promote democrat ic governance, build stronger institutions, and promote human rights.

Global understanding from projects aimed at en hancing digitalisation for democracy has shown that a deep understanding of the local context is necessary to make these work. It is essential to improve citizens’ involvement and maintain flexibility to develop a us er-friendly approach to improve the digital interface for democracy.

Assessment

Democracy is clearly at a critical juncture with mounting pressures on it globally. The merits of the system easily outweigh any possible negatives. In order to make it better for everyone, we will have to make a concerted effort to solidify its institutions and not just focus on elections.

There are clear challenges to the digital atmosphere in democracy, with allegations of disinformation and hate polluting the political discourse. The mantle to wrestle with this difficulty lies with technology companies which accept a degree of oversight and democratic responsibility. Profit cannot alone be the driver when there are serious implications for the very existence of nation-states as democracies.

ETHICS IN THE METAVERSE

As the inevitability of the metaverse looms large, are we ethically prepared to live with it?

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T he next generation of immersive virtual reality technology is still in its infancy and is known by the hazily defined term “metaverse.” The metaverse is coming, whether you like it or not. As companies rush to get on the bandwagon, the ques tion of ethics within this new way of living “phygi tally” - a crossover between our digital and physical identity, looms insidiously.

The idea of the metaverse as a 3D immersive universe will undoubtedly have an impact on all facets of our lives, including networking, work environments, entertainment, learning, and much more. Even with its shoddy graphics and perhaps unreliable gameplay, the question of ethics in the metaverse needs to be addressed.In the metaverse, we have the chance to present our authentic selves alongside alter-ego virtual personas owing to the metaverse’s blend of realism and imagination. So, which part of our personality dominates-the real one or the one we imagine?

Because the metaverse cannot exist without interoper ability, we have an ethical obligation to supply it. Without biological and mental privacy, some modern technologies could literally read our minds, model our identities, draw precise and pertinent conclusions (and not always the right ones) and then influence our behaviour to the point that it undermines our planned activities.

FUTURISTIC OR OLD WINE IN A NEW BOTTLE?

According to recent accounts, the metaverse is less rem iniscent of controlled and algorithmically trimmed digital

Because the metaverse cannot exist without interoperability, we have an ethical obligation to supply it. Without biological and mental privacy, some modern technologies could literally read our minds, model our identities, draw precise and pertinent conclusions (and not always the right ones) and then influence our behaviour to the point that it undermines our planned activities.

landscapes we primarily inhabit now and more like the un controlled chat rooms that predominated the early inter net. These experiences are not unusual, owing to research conducted before the frenzy surrounding the metaverse. According to a 2018 study by the virtual reality research or ganisation The Extended Mind, 49 per cent of women and 36 per cent of men who regularly used VR technologies said they had been the victim of sexual harassment. According to the metaverse concept, we will eventually connect with the internet mainly through a virtual reality headset, where the lines between the actual and virtual worlds would be blurred by 3D settings that are crisply produced and realistic.

We know that the conventional internet is rife with abuse, hate speech, and unlawful content. Unfortunately, these issues might still persist in the metaverse.

People can be inventive when it comes to the unique ways individuals use or misuse technology. In his book, ‘Re ality+Virtual Worlds and the Problems of Philosophy,’ David J. Chalmers (professor of philosophy and neuroscience at New York University} claims that, on conventional social

media sites, “bodily harassment” conducted towards an avatar is typically perceived as more painful than verbal harassment. In a sense, through becoming embodied, social reality becomes much more comparable to phys ical reality.

When moving from a social media network like Face book into the metaverse, moderating behaviour will precede moderating content. Meta also recently came up with a suggested rule that malicious users who get removed from the metaverse should be prohibited on all platforms owned by Meta, even if they used different virtual identities. But for this strategy to be ultimately successful, accounts that require ID would need to be established, making this highly unlikely.

CHALLENGES OF METAVERSE

Artificial Intelligence (AI) still lacks the ability to detect offensive speech in real-time audio feeds. While there may be some need for human moderation, it would be impossible to monitor all real-time online environ ments without it being extremely resource intensive. There are some instances where crimes committed in the digital realm have been punished in the physical world.

A case concerning the theft of a virtual amulet and sword from the online multiplayer game Runescape was decided upon by the Dutch Supreme Court in 2012. Two gamers who held up another player with a knife were sentenced to community service in the real world because, according to the judge, though the items they stole were intangible, they were nevertheless valuable because of the time and effort it took to get them. There fore, as is evident, there is still a long way to go!

Everyone opposes living in a virtual police state, and there is an increasing belief that regulation should be tempered by encouraging prosocial behaviour. The XR Association, a trade group, made up of Google, Micro soft, Oculus, Vive, and Sony Interactive Entertainment, has made specific recommendations, such as rewarding compassion and charity and highlighting effective group behaviour. Even more worrisome is the bias phenom enon in AI, which persists despite concerted efforts to curb it. At this juncture, the question of representation and diversity within the scope of AI development and metaverse building also becomes essential.

Eye tracking is a particular worry because it is some thing that VR gadgets will be competent enough to ac complish. It brings to mind the time when marketers used eye tracking to see how consumers read and re sponded to the text they were reading. One of the main issues is that such items can be used to infer purpose, including subconscious intent, which should ideally be controlled by the owner and not something that ends up being utilised as a marketing tool. Tracking shouldn’t be done with it.

You can still create a digital fingerprint even when you externalise objects in the metaverse and observe how eyeballs move in a VR area without using goggles,

just like we can fingerprint walking.

Sensor fusion, a phenomenon in which all of these data collection tools combine to collect data from our bodies as well as sources like brain control interfaces and neu rological information, perhaps eventually enabling the AI to decipher our thoughts, can also become a genuine possibility with the current rate of advancement in AI.

REGULATING THE METAVERSE

Data ownership, individual autonomy, and the mod elling of your identity in a digital realm are other vital issues to consider. One difficulty is that, unlike the phys ical world where the law is territorial, the metaverse could be global and decentralised, making it challenging to regulate technologies worldwide. Web 3 will further decentralise the technology.

These technologies are conscious of the environ ment and can identify individuals; there needs to be a paradigm shift from understanding more about identifi cation and privacy concerning our identities. Therefore, laws must be drafted accordingly.

New regulations being put in place to control so cial media might very well be applied to the metaverse. Transparency and accountability are essential for ethi cal AI systems to function effectively. The advancement of safety standards in the metaverse may be influenced by government regulations such as the EU’s recently implemented Digital Services Act, which incurs severe fines to social media companies if they fail to prompt ly remove illegal content and the UK’s still-in-develop ment online harms bill.

Facebook’s metaverse projects are already running afoul of safety authorities. Meta also got into trouble regarding the absence of parental controls on its wellknown Oculus Quest 2 virtual reality headset. In the future, it looks like every company wanting to get their grip on the Virtual Reality environment will have to ad dress these concerns to prevent further backlash and facilitate expansion.

Assessment

The remedies that tech corporations have developed to address damages in the metaverse mirror the ineffective tactics they have used online and could be seen as a way to escape regulation.

Operating beyond geographical and sovereign boundaries, metaverse can openly challenge the very nature of a well-ordered society that functions under the overwatch of a judicial system. The world is still not equipped to operate in a vacuum where there is no regulatory oversight, even if that world is deemed virtual. With the blurring of the real and the virtual domain, the metaverse merits the same consideration as the physical world.

A FRESH START

Privacy activists welcomed the withdrawal of a Bill that they claim still requires considerable public scrutiny and debate.

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Early this month, in an unexpected move, the Government announced the withdrawal of the Personal Data Protection Bill 2021, assuring that its newer avatar would be more comprehensive and will “fit into the comprehensive legal framework of the fast-developing digital economy which will be “designed to address all of the contemporary and fu ture challenges of the digital ecosystem.” The Gov ernment has assured of wide public consultations before the new Bill is compiled.

PROTECTING PRIVACY

First tabled in 2019 based on the Justice BN Srikrishna Committee’s Report, the root of the Bill lies in the direction of the Hon’ble Supreme Court in the case ‘Justice KS Put taswamy (Retd) vs Union of India’. The apex case had ruled that the right to privacy is protected or enshrined under Ar ticles 14, 19 and 21 of the Constitution of India. A commit tee of experts under Justice BN Srikrishna was convened to recommend measures to strengthen these in the digital era.

The Bill proposed restrictions on the use of personal data without the explicit consent of citizens. However, there was a loophole proposed which would enable the Govern ment the powers to grant exemptions to state investigative agencies from the restrictive regulations of the proposed Bill without the consent of the individual. These exemp tions included security of the state, detection of any unlaw ful activity or fraud, whistleblowing, medical emergencies, credit scoring, operation of search engines and procession of publicly available data. However, certain rights of the individual were enshrined in the Bill, which included: Con firmation from the fiduciary whether their data was being

As per S Chandrasekhar, Head of Digital & Cyber Practice, the withdrawn Bill has had its fair share of criticism. The consensus within all sections of the public discourse had been that the 2021 Bill (as also its 2019 version) had significantly diluted the enforceability of personal privacy as a fundamental right against state action and thus liable to a constitutional challenge.

accessed, seeking correction in their personal data if being used, and restricting continuing disclosure of personal data under certain circumstances.

Another controversial aspect of the Bill was that it re quired personal data related to finances, health, sexual ori entation, biometrics, transgender status, religious or politi cal beliefs and affiliations to be stored exclusively in Indian geography, along with that critical data, which will be de fined by the Government from time to time.

A DEBATABLE BILL

There were a few contentious sections in the Bill that led to heated debates-Article 35 and Article 12 (a). Article 35 gave the central Government the power to exempt any state agency from the provisions of the law in the ‘interest of India’s sovereignty and integrity.’ Article 12 (a) eliminat ed the need to obtain the informed consent of the targeted individual for processing his data under circumstances that necessitated the performance of any function of the state authorised by law for (i) the provision of any service or ben efit to the data principal from the state; or (ii) the issuance of any certification, licence, or permit by the state for any

action or activity of the data principal by the state.”

As per S Chandrasekhar, Head of Digital & Cyber Practice, the withdrawn Bill has had its fair share of crit icism. The consensus within all sections of the public discourse had been that the 2021 Bill (as also its 2019 version) had significantly diluted the enforceability of personal privacy as a fundamental right against state ac tion and thus liable to a constitutional challenge.

Stakeholders in general and Big Tech raised con cerns about recommendations pertaining to data local isation on the grounds that mandatory data localisation requirements and restrictions on cross-border data transfers were rigid obligations that would not only weaken privacy protections but also impede interoper ability with emerging international norms and practices impacting India’s economic opportunities.

Indian tech start-ups felt that the compliance bur den on them would be disproportionately high; Civil Society criticised the overriding powers given to central law enforcement agencies, and the industry at large was uncomfortable with the criminal liability attached to di rectors of companies for wilful offences.

Mr Chandrasekhar remarks that it would not be an exaggeration to say that no other Bill had undergone such extensive scrutiny and discussion among all seg ments of various stakeholders. The original 2019 ver sion of the 2021 Bill was introduced in Parliament on December 11, 2019, which referred it to a Joint Com mittee of both Houses of Parliament (JCP) for exam ination. The JCP came up with 81 recommendations for changes & submitted its report along with the 2021 Bill. Both the original 2019 version and the 2021 Bill had been preceded by extensive stakeholder consultations. Thus, it makes sense that in a Bill which has 99 sections, there were 81 amendments and 12 major recommenda tions, drafting a new Bill would be a better proposition.

The complex regulatory scene being envisaged in In dia was a source of a major irritation to the influential Big Tech, which in turn led to straining of relations with Washington on trade issues.

THE NEW AVATAR

Undoubtedly, there is an urgency to pass a data regulation bill as India is already behind many South Asian countries on this account. The Sri Lankan Bill was passed this March, while both Pakistan and Bangla desh are at the final stages of passing their respective bills. India, on the other hand, a world leader in data processing, is lagging.Data cuts across the entire spec trum of Information Technology (IT) and encompasses storage, localisation, encryption and cybersecurity. We already have the IT Act, which also touches upon the subject of personal data protection. So, it would not be out of place for the Government to consider the entire gamut of IT and come out with an all-encompassing Act that harmonises all segments of activities in rela tion to data protection. Such a bill would definitely take into account the concerns of the fast-growing start-up ecosystem, which could be the next engine of growth for India. As per unconfirmed reports, the Government is considering legislating two separate bills- one for the protection of private data and the other one for cyber security.

Being compliant with data protection standards is gradually becoming a basic requirement to do business with companies in Europe and other geographies as well. So not being compliant with data protection regu lations could be a blocker to business.

Resilient Just like us.

BREAKFAST SERIES - 01

GAUTHAM BAMBAWALE

UPCOMING FORUMS:

THE UNKNOWN ROUND TABLE WITH HARVARD UNIVERSITY

CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES ROUND TABLE WITH NBR, WASHINGTON