Bernard Salt AM Keynote Address — TasCOSS Conference 2021 (3 November 2021)

TasCOSS

“No-one left behind” Building better support systems in post-Covid Tasmania Bernard Salt AM 3 November 2021

Australians spend their wealth on housing and lifestyle

1.

United States 20,933

2.

China 14,723

3.

Japan 5,049

4.

Germany 3,803

5.

United Kingdom 2,711

6.

India 2,709

7.

France 2,599

8.

Italy 1,885

9.

Canada 1,643

10.

South Korea 1,631

11.

Russia 1,474

12.

Brazil 1,434

13.

Australia 1,359

14.

Spain 1,278

15.

Mexico 1,076

(-2%)

(-4%)

(-2%)

(+3%)

(-6%)

(-8%)

(-2%)

(-6%)

(-15%)

(-2%)

(-1%)

(-4%)

(-13%)

(-6%)

(-24%)

Top 15 countries by GDP 2020 (in USD bn) & percentage change 2019-2020 Source: IMF; The Demographics Group

The pandemic has disrupted access to skilled & seasonal labour 1900

1920

350,000

1940

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000

ANZACs depart

1980

2000

2020 Big Australia Covid-19 peak pandemic

ANZACs return

300,000

1960

Great Depression

US soldiers returning home

50,000 -50,000

-150,000

1901 1903 1905 1907 1909 1911 1913 1915 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

-100,000

Historical net overseas migration in Australia from 1901 to 2019 and budget forecasts to 2024 Source: ABS 3105, 3101 and 3222; Australian Federal Budget 2021; The Demographics Group

Tasmania has been “on the up” for much of the 21st century delivering opportunity for many… however we must also ensure that noone is left behind

King Island

Flinders Burnie Central Coast West Tamar Devonport Latrobe

George Town Dorset

Circular Head WaratahWynyard

Launceston

Break O’Day Northern Midlands

West Coast

Central Highlands

Southern Midlands

GlamorganSpring Bay Sorell

Derwent Valley

Tasman

Areas of population growth and loss between 2000 and 2020 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

Huon Valley

Clarence Brighton Glenorchy Kingborough

Pop 2000:

473,000

Pop 2020:

541,000

Growth:

68,000

Rising and falling population, labour pools and client bases LGA Gains 1. Sorell (M)

2020

Net % change change 2010-2020 2010-2020

LGA Losses

2020

Net % change change 2010-2020 2010-2020

16,000

2,860

22%

1. West Coast (M)

4,100

-930

-18%

2. Flinders (M)

1,000

170

20%

2. Central Highlands (M)

2,200

-190

-8%

3. Latrobe (M)

12,000

1,900

19%

3. Dorset (M)

6,700

-490

-7%

4. Brighton (M)

18,100

2,560

16%

4. Waratah/Wynyard (M)

13,900

-410

-3%

5. Huon Valley (M)

18,000

2,290

15%

5. King Island (M)

1,600

-40

-3%

6. Kingborough (M)

38,600

4,500

13%

6. Circular Head (M)

8,200

-220

-3%

7. Clarence (C)

58,700

6,330

12%

7. Burnie (C)

19,700

-370

-2%

8. Hobart (C)

55,300

4,960

10%

8. Break O'Day (M)

6,300

-100

-2%

9. West Tamar (M)

24,400

1,780

8%

9. Central Coast (M)

22,200

-130

-1%

10. Northern Midlands (M)

13,600

920

7%

10. Devonport (C)

25,700

40

0%

Tasmania

540,800

31,930

6%

Population of Tasmania’s Local Government Areas at 2020 and change between 2010 and 2020 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

Big migration losses ended 20 years ago so let’s focus on the future 2010

2000

1990 6,000 5,000

Peak of the (mainland's) resources boom

Average annual net migration

4,000

2020

3,000 2,000 1,000

Post recession outflow

-1,000 -2,000 -3,000

2020/21

2019/20

2018/19

2017/18

2016/17

2015/16

2014/15

2013/14

2012/13

2011/12

2010/11

2009/10

2008/09

2007/08

2006/07

2005/06

2004/05

2003/04

2002/03

2001/02

2000/01

1999/00

1998/99

1997/98

1996/97

1995/96

1994/95

1993/94

1992/93

1991/92

1990/91

1989/90

1988/89

1987/88

1986/87

1985/86

1983/84

1982/83

-5,000

1981/82

-4,000

1984/85

Peak outflow from Tasmania 24 years ago

Net migration (interstate & overseas) Tasmania 1981 – 2021 (two quarters worth of data for FY 2020/21) Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

Full camera

The Tasmanian workplace relies on foreign skills and labour Greater Hobart

Australia

62%

Workforce Growth 2011-16

74%

Workforce Growth 2011-16

1.

Australia

840

1.

Australia

159,000

2.

China

300

2.

India

101,000

3.

India

280

3.

China

72,000

4.

Nepal

180

4.

Philippines

37,000

5.

Philippines

90

5.

Nepal

22,000

6.

Pakistan

80

6.

South Korea

19,000

7.

Bhutan*

80

7.

New Zealand

18,000

8.

Thailand*

80

8.

Vietnam

17,000

9.

USA*

70

9.

Pakistan

16,000

10. Taiwan*

60

10. South Africa

15,000

Total Hobart

2,100

Total Australia

625,000

* denotes country not in national top 10… percentage denote proportion net new workers born overseas

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

Tasmania is especially challenged by ageing issues 10

9.0% 8.0%

20

30

40

50

Tas (and AU) must focus on skills development

Less focus on kids

60

70

80

TAS Pop 2020: 541,000

Greatest focus on ageing

7.0%

90

ACT Pop 2020: 431,000

Pressure on frail elderly care

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%

Australian Capital Territory

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

0.0%

Tasmania

Proportion of population by 5-year age group Tasmania & ACT, June 2020 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

The healthcare and social services workforce is expanding

Occupation

Net change Aug 2021 Feb 20Aug 21

1. Welfare Support Workers

68,900

2. Aged and Disabled Carers

224,200

3. Audiologists, Speech Pathologists\ Therapists 4. Registered Nurses

7,900 298,000

Occupation

Aug 2021

Net change Feb 20Aug 21

30,100 10. Health and Welfare Services Managers

34,300

-600

20,100 11. Occupational Therapists

24,900

-800

7,600 12. Social Workers

35,300

-1,000

7,400 13. Social Professionals

12,800

-2,200

5. Physiotherapists

30,100

7,400 14. Welfare, Rec. & Community Arts Workers

31,500

-3,500

6. Nurse Managers

19,000

2,900 15. Gen.Practitioners & Resident Medical Officers

62,900

-3,900

7. Nurse Educators and Researchers

9,300

2,600 16. Nursing Support & Personal Care Workers

101,700

-5,000

8. Special Care Workers

3,700

2,400 17. Counsellors

29,600

-6,100

9. Indigenous Health Workers

2,200

24,100

-8,900

1,020,400

48,500

0 18. Massage Therapists Total “TasCOSS labour pool” Australian workforce total

12,956,200 -97,100

Occupations in typical TasCOSS labour pool at August 2021 incl change February 2020 and August 2021 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

The aged or disabled carer workforce is itself ageing

Peak carer in 50’s 25,000

20,000

We need even more 20-somethings

We need to grow the 40something workforce

2011: 2016: Change:

108,200 132,300 24,100

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Age profile of Aged or Disabled Carers at the 2016 Census and change between 2011 and 2016 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

0 Jan-1990 Jun-1990 Nov-1990 Apr-1991 Sep-1991 Feb-1992 Jul-1992 Dec-1992 May-1993 Oct-1993 Mar-1994 Aug-1994 Jan-1995 Jun-1995 Nov-1995 Apr-1996 Sep-1996 Feb-1997 Jul-1997 Dec-1997 May-1998 Oct-1998 Mar-1999 Aug-1999 Jan-2000 Jun-2000 Nov-2000 Apr-2001 Sep-2001 Feb-2002 Jul-2002 Dec-2002 May-2003 Oct-2003 Mar-2004 Aug-2004 Jan-2005 Jun-2005 Nov-2005 Apr-2006 Sep-2006 Feb-2007 Jul-2007 Dec-2007 May-2008 Oct-2008 Mar-2009 Aug-2009 Jan-2010 Jun-2010 Nov-2010 Apr-2011 Sep-2011 Feb-2012 Jul-2012 Dec-2012 May-2013 Oct-2013 Mar-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 Jun-2015 Nov-2015 Apr-2016 Sep-2016 Feb-2017 Jul-2017 Dec-2017 May-2018 Oct-2018 Mar-2019 Aug-2019 Jan-2020 Jun-2020 Nov-2020 Apr-2021 Sep-2021

Unemployment rate (%)

Tasmania unemployment at record low creates shallow labour pool 1995 2000 2005

10

8

Tasmania Unemployment Rate % (Seasonally Adjusted)

2010

Pre-GFC low 3.9%

2015 2020

Recession high 13.3%

14

12

Pandemic low 4.6%

Pandemic high 7.9%

6

4

2

Poly. (Australia Unemployment Rate %)

Unemployment rate of Tasmania (seasonally adjusted) from January 1990 to September 2021 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

The lifecycle is changing creating new care segments

Child

Adult

Adolescence

Lifestyle

Retired

Old

2021

84

Child

Teen

Adult

Old

1981

74

Child

Adult

Old

1941

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia SLIDE #

Source: various Source: sources; The Demographics United Nations - World Population Group Prospects

Full camera

Traditional belief systems gather momentum later in life 100%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

90% 80%

Belief

70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

Volunteers

20%

Carers

10% 0%

1

4

7

Disabled

10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 Volunteers

Religious belief

Carers

Disabled

Social indicators across the Australian lifecycle by single year of age, 2016 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

The social patchwork of Tasmania’s communities Provided Unpaid Care

Volunteers

Need for Assistance in Core Activity

15%

Ravenswood

33%

Mount Nelson

19%

Shorewell Park

15%

Rosetta

33%

Taroona

15%

Warrane

15%

Risdon Vale

33%

South Hobart

11%

Glenorchy

15%

Bridgewater

32%

Mount Stuart

11%

St Helens

15%

George Town

31%

West Hobart

11%

West Ulverstone

15%

Taroona

30%

Deloraine

11%

Sorell

15%

Bellerive

30%

Scottsdale

10%

Bridgewater

15%

St Helens

30%

Park Grove

10%

Lindisfarne

14%

Lauderdale

29%

Trevallyn

10%

East Devonport

8%

Hobart

11%

Bridgewater

3%

East Launceston

12%

Australian Average

21%

Australian Average

6%

Australian Average

Per cent comparison of selected social indicators by suburb in Tasmania at the 2016 Census Excludes suburbs with population less than 2,000

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0 Jun-1971 Feb-1972 Oct-1972 Jun-1973 Feb-1974 Oct-1974 Jun-1975 Feb-1976 Oct-1976 Jun-1977 Feb-1978 Oct-1978 Jun-1979 Feb-1980 Oct-1980 Jun-1981 Feb-1982 Oct-1982 Jun-1983 Feb-1984 Oct-1984 Jun-1985 Feb-1986 Oct-1986 Jun-1987 Feb-1988 Oct-1988 Jun-1989 Feb-1990 Oct-1990 Jun-1991 Feb-1992 Oct-1992 Jun-1993 Feb-1994 Oct-1994 Jun-1995 Feb-1996 Oct-1996 Jun-1997 Feb-1998 Oct-1998 Jun-1999 Feb-2000 Oct-2000 Jun-2001 Feb-2002 Oct-2002 Jun-2003 Feb-2004 Oct-2004 Jun-2005 Feb-2006 Oct-2006 Jun-2007 Feb-2008 Oct-2008 Jun-2009 Feb-2010 Oct-2010 Jun-2011 Feb-2012 Oct-2012 Jun-2013 Feb-2014 Oct-2014 Jun-2015 Feb-2016 Oct-2016 Jun-2017 Feb-2018 Oct-2018 Jun-2019 Feb-2020 Oct-2020 Jun-2021

The long boom created a culture of (outrageous) expectation

1970s

-2.0

Whitlam

1980s

Fraser

1990s

Hawke

2000s 2010s

% change

6.0

GST GFC

2020s Jun 2021 +0.7%

4.0

2.0

0.0

COVID-19

June 2020 -7%

Per cent change in Australia’s gross domestic product quarter-to-quarter growth rate (constant prices) from 1971 to 2021 Source: ABS Australian National Accounts (released June 2021), The Demographics Group

WFH has increased the “dwell time” in the home

Before

Lockdown

Post Covid

WFH

Source: Visualised by The Demographics Group

Work, study, shop--and access care services--from home

Water Tanks

1950s Store

Today

Zoom Room Veggie Patch

Gym Store

Source: House plans created by Sawmill Designs

Full camera

I stopped eating smashed avocado … and now I own a castle

Opportunities for the TasCOSS community in the 2020s 1. Invest in Volunteers

2. Support Care Culture

3. Develop ‘Life’ Skills

4. Create Tech Connections

5. Build Business Capacity

6. Support Disability Community

Source: The Demographics Group

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