OFFICE MARKET INSIGHT Q1 2021 Sofia
NOTABLE TRANSACTION Q1 2021 We would like to welcome our partners into their new home!
NEW LEASE ACQUISITION
1.200sq.m. NV TOWER
Q1 2021
OFFICE MARKET INSIGHT
SOFIA | KEY MARKET TRENDS OVERALL MARKET VACANCY REACHES 15%
STRONG SUBMARKET SEGMENTATION
Class A vacancy has increased with 2.5% since Q4 while class B vacancy is almost unchanged. Further increase can be expected by the end of 2021.
Although average asking rents have not changed significantly, rental levels vary substantially throughout submarkets, especially in those with high availability.
STEADY ASKING RENTAL LEVELS & INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN ASKING AND ACHIEVABLE TERMS
MODEST VOLUME OF NEW DELIVERIES IN Q1 2021 AND A SOLID PIPELINE UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR
Despite the downward pressure, average asking rental terms remain unchanged, while the price gap between asking and achievable rents continues to widen.
Approx. 34,000 sq. m of new deliveries in the first quarter of the year. Additional 192,900 sq. m are in the pipeline for 2021.
Speculative Stock
1,87
Sofia at a glance
mln. m2
34,000 m2 in Q1 Construction Activity
360,200 m
2
no construction starts in Q1
Pre-lease:
Expected deliveries. Preleases in %
Class A Class B 15,24%
14,87%
Availability
392,500 m
Asking Rents
€ 11 - 14 € 6 - 11
2
125,600 m
20%
2
m
7%
2
m
0% 2023
40k
Vacancy
m
108,800
0,78 mln m
2
2
2
1,09 mln m
192,900
2
Speculative Stock
In 2021, additional 192,900 sq. m of modern office space is expected to be delivered on the market (ca. 54% of the total construction activity). From the new deliveries, 33% are expected to be delivered in Tsarigradsko Shosse, 24% in the area of Business Park Sofia 19% in Hladilnika area, 10% in Iztok/Izgrev and approx. 12% in CBD and Broad Center. 20% of the pipeline for 2021 is already pre-leased, with the largest share – 57% of pre-leases in the submarket of Iztok/Izgrev.
EXPECTED DELIVERY
NV Tower
20.000m²
Q2 2021
Garitage Park (Building D) 20.000m²
Q2 2021
Park Lane
22.600m²
Q2 2021
Balkan Business Center
29.000m²
Q2 2021
Synergy Tower
32.200m²
Q3 2021
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY 2021: SUBMARKETS
.6 0%
The construction of approx. 57,900 sq. m of office projects is currently inactive.
Total Construction Activity
192,900 sq. m
3%
19 .33
Bulgaria Blvd
2%
DEMAND The actual take-up in Q1 2021 experienced a 23% drop – 20,800 sq. m, compared to 27,000 sq. m in Q4 2020, however, historically last quarters of each year have been stronger and, therefore an effective decrease cannot be estimated. Nevertheless, the market is showing its first signs of recovery, evident from the increased number of commenced new lease acquisition projects expected to be finalized later this year.
Central Business District
DEMAND OUTLOOK
TAKE-UP Q1 2021: SUBMARKETS
4%
10.22%
Broad Center
25
1%
18,7
7%
Total Take-up 20,800 sq. m
3%
Bulgaria Blvd
Hladilnika
.5
2%
Sofia Airport Area
5%
Central Business District
Hladilnika Area
Iztok Izgrev
Tsarigradsko Shosse
Lease flexibility continues to play a significant role for tenants, which results in a strong push towards shorter unbreakable periods. Tested by these conditions, landlords' levels of flexibility can be characterized with strong segmentation, depending on a myriad of factors including submarket dynamics, internal competition, building's occupancy and, of course, building quality.
8.8
27 .6 3%
Despite the increased volume of ongoing new lease acquisition projects, the market can be still considered in its very early stages towards its way to recovery. For the majority of occupiers, the general level of uncertainty increases the time for planning and actual decision, thus making the relocation projects more timeconsuming and with higher risk of interim delays.
Business Park Area
Tsarigradsko Shosse
23
Sofia's total construction activity stands at 360,200 sq. m. In addition, a few office projects with total of 40,000 sq. m aboveground area received construction permits in Q1 and are expected to break ground later this year.
APPROXIMATE OFFICE AREA
%
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
BUILDING
.7 0%
Q1 brought a relatively modest volume of new deliveries to the market – a total of 34,000 sq. m, represented by 3 speculative office projects located in the submarkets of Tsarigradsko Shosse, Bulgaria Blvd and CBD. As an effect of the new deliveries, Sofia's speculative total stock increased to 1,87 mln sq. m.
32
SUPPLY
MAJOR OFFICE PROJECTS 2021 (20,000+ sq. m)
5% Business Park Area
%
99
12.
Iztok Izgrev
Broad Center
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY HEATMAP Construction Activity CBD
1 2 3
11,900 m
2
2
28,100 m 2
BROAD CENTER
43,000 m
TSARIGRADSKO SHOSSE
*Available space
49,000 m
2
2
Average Asking Rents Class A
Average Asking Rents Class B
€ 12.00 – 14.00
€ 9.50 – 12.50
€ 12.00 – 14.00
€ 7.00 – 12.00
2
165,500 m
€ 11.00 – 13.50
€ 6.00 – 10.00
2
2
€ 12.00 – 14.00
€ 6.00 – 9.50
2
€ 10.00 – 14.00
€ 7.00 – 11.00
2
€ 10.00 – 12.50
€ 7.00 – 8.50
129,200 m
4
HLADILNIKA
80,000 m
82,000 m
5
BUSINESS PARK DISTRICT
45,000 m
2
67,800 m
6
BULGARIA BLVD
13,000 m
2
46,200 m
*Includes available space under construction that will be delivered until the end of Q2 2022.
RENTAL LEVELS Market rental rates are still subject to pressure throughout the respective submarkets. However there is almost no change in average asking rental levels over the last quarter. Rent flexibility is more evident in submarkets with higher-than-average availability, especially among properties which fall behind their direct competitors in terms of building quality, amenities, and convenience of public transport. 2
Sofia International Airport
1
6
3 4
Class A asking rents remain between EUR 11.00 EUR 14.00 per sq. m in all submarkets with a few exceptions. Class B asking rents remain - EUR 9.00 - 12.50 in the CBD and gradually decrease when moving away from the city center, reaching EUR 6.00 - 11.00 in the Suburban areas.
SUMMARY 5
VACANCY & AVAILABILITY Overall vacancy levels reached 15.09%, which equals to 282,000 sq. m of speculative stock. This is a 32,000 sq. m increase compared to the previous quarter. Class A vacancy (15,24%) now surpassed that of class B (14,87%) with the 3 newly delivered projects with high vacancy. It is interesting to note that large portions of vacancy is focused in a few buildings. If we are to take those buildings out of the equation, overall vacancy will drop to about 10%. Given the expected low net absorption for 2021 and the low average pre-lease levels it is very likely that we will see another 3% rise in Class A vacancy by the end of the year. 518,600 sq. m are currently available and actively competing for tenants. 393,000 sq. m of those are in class A buildings, while the class B available space stands at 125,600 sq. m. More than 52% of the class A availability comes from office buildings expecting occupancy permits by the end of Q2 2022.
After the challenges brought by the pandemic in 2020, investors are hopeful that H1 2021 will mark the beginning of a market recovery. However, even though renewed occupier activity could be noticed, the market still has a long way to go in terms of closed transactions. Levels of uncertainty remain high while the majority of occupiers remain “undecided” when it comes to their real estate strategies. The ongoing discussions with regards to the future of the workplace and how it will affect our market are still significantly polarized. The policies of tenants are far from unified, gravitating on the scale between full nomad-style workplace and the more balanced hybrid models. Last but not least, we need to take into account that workplace strategies are being tested and monitored in real time, which leads to ongoing adjustments in the short and mid-term plans of occupiers. In turn, uncertainty levels might remain high until a sustainable model is established. Market participants should be prepared that the road to recovery may not be as quick and straightforward as they might have hoped for.
Q1 2021
OFFICE MARKET INSIGHT
OFFICE INVESTMENT MARKET | SOFIA HIGHER INVESTMENT INTEREST Low interest rates and availability of funds are driving investors towards potential acquisitions.
A
CORE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES REMAIN PREFERRABLE Investors are focusing their attention in class A assets in more resilient submarkets, with low vacancy and high interest from occupiers.
A NOTICEABLE GAP BETWEEN BID AND ASK YIELDS
OFFICE INVESTORS ARE LOOKING TO DIVERSIFY THEIR PORTFOLIO
Owners feel no pressure to sell, while buyers are looking for attractive yields.
Segments such as logistics, residential and retail parks are attracting more interest.
OVERVIEW
OUTLOOK
As Covid-19 influenced negatively Sofia's office space market in 2020, investments in office projects and land for office development reached less than EUR 95 mln. for that period. The combination of the pandemic, strong construction activity and uncertainty from the demand side increased the perceived risk in debt financing, making lending institutions more cautious.
The increased discrepancy between the expectations of sellers and buyers on the office investment market in terms of achievable yields is noticeable. On one hand, investors are accounting for the risk of higher market vacancy due to WFH policies, by focusing on top-tier, class A assets. On the other hand, low interest rates, in combination with the increasing prices of land, construction and labor are driving the sell-side towards requesting lower-than-market yields, resulting in higher asking prices.
The majority of investors turned more conservative when it comes to their risk approach and are mostly interested in long-let, premium properties in already developed office locations. As the office segment is in its early stages of recovery, we are monitoring an increased appetite for the logistics, residential and land subsectors by some of the established office investors as a form of portfolio diversification. On the other end of the spectrum, opportunistic investors are trying to get the most out of the situation and are filtering for discounts in the most affected market segments.
Nevertheless, there are substantial amounts of equity set aside and with the expectations for potential inflation in the future, office investors will be looking to unload cash in value-preservation investments. For the time being, they are still in the phase of identifying acquisitions and not many are willing to pull the trigger before some clarity for the outcome of the pandemic is seen.
OFFICE INVESTMENT MARKET STUDY: 2018-2021 *Our Office Investment Market Study is taking into consideration only transactions for office properties and land for office development during the period of Q1 2018 – Q1 2021.
12,68% 8,02% 7,17% 5,51% 4,29%
Real Estate Investment Trusts Developers Banks Private Property Investors Private Real Estate Investment Funds
Private Real Estate Investment Funds 30,10% Private Property Investors 11,31% Real Estate Investment Trusts 9,46% Banks 8,72% Other 2,13%
International
37,67% International
62,33%
Sellers Profile
Buyers Profile
61,70%
Local
38,30% Local
22,80% 16,87% 11,10% 6,56% 5,00%
Developers Private Property Investors Private Real Estate Investment Funds Private Individuals Other
*Other includes:
Private Property Investors 10,35% Developers 8,93% Banks 8,88% Real Estate Investment Trusts 4,76% Other 5,39%
Banks, Private Individuals, Public Authorities, Corporates, Developers and Real Estate Investment Trusts
Occupier Advisory: Find a New Office
Project Management
Renegotiate Existing Lease
Interior Design
Compare Current Terms to Market Achievable Levels
Technical Due Diligence
Stay Vs Go Consultancy
Service Charge Review
Corporate Real Estate Strategies
Property Management Due Diligence
Sublease, Assignment and Lease Surrender
Build-to-suit
Landlord Advisory: Lead Agency
Commercial Negotiations
Interior Design
Leasing Strategy
Lease Renewals
Project Management
Offering Strategy
Lease Documentation
Build-to-suit
Competition Analysis
Property Management Set-up
Q1 2021
OFFICE MARKET INSIGHT
MACROECONOMIC SNAPSHOT -3.8%
0.2%
5.2%
€ 750.6
GDP y-o-y change (Q4 2020)
Inflation Annual inflation (February 2021)
National unemployment rate (December 2020)
Gross Average Salary (December 2020)
*Data was derived from the sources of National Statistics Institute (NSI) and Bulgaria Labor Agency
The Information contained in the present document has been obtained from a variety of sources, including projections and estimations, deemed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we make no guarantees, warranties or representation about it. Avalant© 2021. All rights reserved. The information in this document cannot be reproduced, modified or used without the author's consent.
Contact us:
Hristo Andonov Director Avalant
OFFICE MARKET INSIGHT Q1 2021 Sofia
+359-884-07-07-78 andonov@avalant.bg