3.2 UEP Vision

2.3 Environment and Climate Change Risk Profile

The topography of the County is greatly influenced by the presence of Mt Kenya at its northern axis. From the plains of Mt Kenya to the south, the topography gradually rises towards the peak of the mountain to the north. The County has 35,876ha of forest, covering 23.7% of its territory. Major forests within the Municipality include Mt Kenya forest and Njukiini West Forest, which are very diverse with exotic and undisturbed indigenous trees. Most wildlife is found in Mt Kenya National Park and Reserve, which provides a habitat for a rich diversity of animals, including a number of threatened species.

The County has three distinct ecological zones24: The highlands 3,400m above sea level, the midland areas (ranging from 2,000m to 3,400m) above mean sea level and the lowlands or plains (1,158m to 2,000m above mean sea level). The highest altitude within the County is around 5,200m above sea level, at the peak of Mt Kenya. KKM is largely located within the lowland ecological zone.

The climate of the County is heavily influenced by Mt Kenya, and conditions range from cool and wet on its slopes, to warm and drier in the semi-arid areas around Mwea District. KKM is generally well-endowed with water resources, however, there has been an increase in variability and climate extremes, with increased temperatures significantly reducing snow and glacier cover on Mt Kenya, which has in turn decreased the reliability of river flows into KKM.

The CIDP recognises climate variability and climate change as an emerging threat to the sustainable development of the County. The impact of drought and floods is reported to have increased, and farmers have seen less reliable rainfall, with more variability between years and within seasons.

Climate projections show that average, minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in the County. Overall, annual rainfall is likely to increase, however, there is potential for an earlier end to the Long Rains, and less reliable rainfall during both rainy seasons. The intensity of rainfall is also expected to increase. On average, rainfall events will be heavier, and rainfall currently considered extreme will occur more often. Climate risks to the agricultural sector will remain high, as increases in drought stress are likely, and rainfall intensity is expected to increase, meaning that flood risk is likely to increase.

Key climate risks are drought and rainfall variability, including onset and duration of rainfall, localised flooding, particularly for informal settlements, and increased temperatures accelerating a reduction in snow and glacier cover at Mt Kenya.

There is an opportunity in Kirinyaga to work with the significant natural assets of the County in order to both increase resilience to these climate risks, as well as enhancing biodiversity, and improving leisure and recreational activities. Poor and marginalised groups tend to be disproportionately vulnerable to climate risks, as outlined in Section 1.5, due to a reliance on natural resources for livelihoods, housing which is more likely to be in areas at risk of flooding, and other climate hazards, and a lack of access to social and financial resources.

Without explicitly considering the climate risk faced by these groups, economic growth and poverty reduction initiatives that target these groups may be undermined. Equally, if climate adaptation and resilience programmes do not explicitly include and consider marginalised communities, they risk reinforcing existing inequalities.

The GBD approach outlined as the development concept further below has been developed as a way to increase climate resilience – for example by increasing flood storage while also providing recreational areas – while at the same time increasing the resilience of marginalised groups. Framing the development in the County around the GBD concept will also position the county and municipality to attract green investment flows, including climate finance, but also sustainable finance and impact investment more generally.