Figure 1-4 – UEP Process

1.5 Climate Change, Social Exclusion and Poverty

Climate change poses a serious risk to poverty reduction efforts. While this is a global phenomenon, its impacts disproportionately affect poor and vulnerable populations such as low-income households, PWD, elderly people, and people with chronic illnesses. It affects access to clean air, safe drinking water, food, and shelter, and can have severe impacts on human health. Communities that rely on weather-sensitive subsistence livelihoods such as agriculture are especially vulnerable. Harmful social norms pose additional challenges, by limiting the participation of these groups in formal risk reduction and climate adaptation programmes.

At the time of preparing this UEP, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt societies and economies around the globe. The negative impact, both on health and the economy, have been felt locally in Wote. While governments are trying to address current challenges, this pandemic has brought to the fore the need to understand better the connection between vulnerable groups, livelihoods, and shocks from critical events such as climate change.

In Wote, youths, women, elderly people and PWD are often excluded from socio-economic activities; they lack access to information, assets, and finance; and they do not participate in decision-making processes. This makes them more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, FGDs highlighted that most SIGs engaging in crop farming in Wote face significant challenges during dry seasons since they are highly dependent on rain-fed farming. At the time of the FGDs, it had been seven months since it last rained. The same instances also noted that, a few years ago, there were heavy rains and some areas experienced flooding and landslides, which destroyed local crops. These events impacted in particular:

Figure 1-4 – UEP Process

Climate Change Disruption of livelihoods and economic activities

Vulnerability to disease outbreaks

Food insecurity

Vulnerability to urban disasters

Source: Atkins, 2022

> Elderly People: In Makueni County, land ownership is mainly held by elderly men. Most of them use the land for livestock-keeping and planting fruit trees. However, due to their age, they cannot fully engage in these activities, and they often lack access to labour-saving technologies or technologies to adapt to climate change-impacts, for example due to extremely dry seasons. Older adults are also affected by climate change due to aging-associated illnesses, which can severely limit their mobility and means that they are less able to respond to extreme weather events. > PWD: Statistically, PWD are more likely to have lower levels of education, be illiterate or unemployed. Due to discrimination, they usually have less access to support networks and social capital than their able-bodied counterparts. These social networks are recognised as a key factor that enables groups to prepare for, respond to, and recover from, climate variability and shocks, and this lack of access increases the vulnerability of PWD to climate change. In Wote, PWD often operate small businesses as tailors, cobblers and in grocery shops, and engage in farming. Yet, they lack access to finance to develop their economic activities and to invest in measures that would better-prepare their businesses to cope with extreme events and climate hazards. FGDs also highlighted that, during rainy seasons, travelling for PWDs is extremely challenging due to poor and inaccessible roads.

Economic poverty, weak social protection, powerlessness

Social exclusion, discimination

Increased inequality

Spatial segregation, informality Poverty

> Women: In Wote, women spend more time than men on unpaid care work. An increase in health diseases due to climate change, can add to this time poverty.

Increasingly severe climate issues such as drought and heat stress have a negative impact on industries such as livestock, dairy production and other small-scale businesses. For example, leading reduced livestock reproduction, lower growth rates and reduced milk production affecting livelihoods, food security and the products’ costs, will impact the livelihoods of women working in these industries. What’s more, women’s lack of access to information and financial resources critically affects their ability to recover from these disasters.

Harmful social norms and competing community and domestic responsibilities pose additional challenges.

Conversely, women are and can be powerful agents of climate action. During the flooding mentioned above, a local group of women were trained by the County government to subdivide the land, form terraces and plant trees to mitigate water run-off and flooding impacts. > Youth: Youth dominate the transport sector in Wote as boda boda, donkey carts or taxi operators, and some of them own small-scale businesses such as cyber cafés, beauty salons, and barber shops. Extreme weather events render roads unpassable and reduce the service demand, thus affecting their income. Many youths also engage in casual labour on farmlands and climate hazards can severely affect their livelihoods. Youth lack involvement in decision-making processes and have reduced access to land (and consequently, credit), which further complicates their ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change. It is imperative to understand exposure, and vulnerability to climate change, to build resilience into future projects through appropriate adaptation measures. In particular, it is important to ensure that adaptation measures do not act to reinforce or deepen existing inequalities, but that they are accessible to groups that are already marginalised. Climate-resilient technologies need to be affordable, accessible to all, and culturally appropriate. Their implementation needs to be accompanied by capacity building and technical support. As well as considering inclusion and poverty elements of all adaptation and climate risk management measures, excluded groups may require targeted interventions that are designed to help build their resilience to climate change.

When implementing the recommendations in this UEP, it is important to consult and understand the needs and expectations of local communities, and particularly SIGs, who have wealth of knowledge about local environmental conservation and who are already powerful agents for climate action.

Increasing the resilience of current and future livelihoods and infrastructure is key to poverty reduction and is addressed systematically throughout the UEP to avoid creating polarisation and further exclusion. Similarly, ensuring that infrastructure projects, VC opportunities and development policies are climate-resilient will not only help the built environment to better respond to future climate risk but also communities and excluded groups to be less affected by climate change events.

1.6 COVID-19 Impacts in Kenya

In Kenya, the impact of COVID-19 has been real and devastating. The pandemic has significantly had an impact on all aspects of life such as health, institutional revenues and livelihoods. COVID-19 has hit the most vulnerable the hardest, particularly the densely populated informal settlements, as well as other people who lack access to adequate housing and basic services.

The informal economy, employing about 70% of Kenyans has been drastically affected as lockdowns and curfews were introduced to curb the transmission of the virus. Low wage earners have been hit the hardest because they rely on the informal sector and daily wages. Mostly they lack the option to work from home as they are mostly in the service industries and more exposed to the virus. Despite the low wages, some have also received pay cuts, and some have lost their jobs all together. There has also been loss of revenue due to reduced activities in other sectors like industry, commerce and hospitality with the effects felt throughout their supply chains.

Travel restrictions led to a sharp and substantial fall in demand for movement and subsequent impacts on supply chains:

> Road freight and logistics have been interrupted as long-distance truck drivers are suspected to be a major source of imported infections and transmission. This has had implications for trade and cross-border activities. Goods take longer to reach destinations. For perishable agricultural commodities, post-harvest loses become rampant; > Disruptions in global supply chains have also led to shortages or delays for critical inputs for agriculture ultimately disrupting production and food supply and manufacturing, leading to price increases; and > Increased awareness of hygiene signifies increased demand for limited resources like water, as well as increased demand for disinfectant used for hand cleaning and sanitization, with additional costs to society, particularly where access is not straightforward.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people differently based on their age, gender, ability or disability, sexual orientation, health status, migrant status, and ethnicity, among other aspects. Crises exacerbate existing gender inequalities, exclusion, and discriminative practices, and vulnerable groups are more adversely affected by the outbreak and the consequences of the response.

Emerging evidence on the impact of COVID-19 suggests that women’s economic and productive lives have been affected disproportionately in comparison with men. This is because women earn less, save less, and are more likely to be employed in the informal sector. Their capacity to absorb economic shock is therefore less than that of men. Women are also the majority of the frontline healthcare workforce and caregivers, putting them at higher risk of catching the virus. Cultural factors may restrict women’s access to information and services, and some women may be particularly affected, e.g. older women living alone, and isolation may lead to an increased risk of violence in the home.

Young people are already among the most affected by the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19. In addition to losing employment, the closure of businesses, and the need to keep away from schools and universities, youth are also at high risk of increased anxiety and mental health problems.

Additionally, youth make up more than 30% of the migrant and refugee population who are likely to be disproportionately affected due to limited movement and fewer employment opportunities caused by the pandemic. Young women and girls are also at high risk of many forms of domestic and gender-based violence during the pandemic. Persons with disability have been left without vital support and advocacy due to social distancing. The majority of PWDs operate small businesses in market centres, which have been adversely affected therefore they have experienced loss of their livelihood.

Street families are also highly exposed to the danger of the virus because they lack shelter. Many of them rely on market centres where they ferry goods for a wage, and with the closure of markets has resulted in loss of their livelihood.

1.6.1 Impact of Covid-19 on Wote

Engagement with local stakeholders helped to provide a greater understanding of the extent to which the pandemic impacted the businesses and communities in Wote Municipality. The majority of businesses interviewed stated that there had been a negative effect on business. During the worst months, from March to August 2020, there was a significant drop in sales, resulting in the closure of several businesses. Costs increased dramatically, due to issues with global supply-chains, and increases in the price of fuel.

Requirements for government health guidelines, such as sanitation and social distancing measures, also forced costs to rise sharply; one business reported their costs had increased by 500%. Local curfews limited opening hours during the workday, reducing sales and business yet further.

There were a few positive reports of increased sales. Due to restrictions on movement nationally, some local traders felt that competition from outside the County was reduced, resulting in higher sales. This was only a small percentage; however, most businesses were extremely frustrated with the extent to which the pandemic had negatively impacted their livelihoods.

Most businesses felt more confident about the future. The vaccination programme is underway in Kenya and international trade is no longer reduced, so there is hope for a return to a more normal business landscape.

1.6.2 Lessons from COVID-19

It will be important to draw lessons from the current crisis to inform long-term planning and ensure resilience is embedded in planning in the future. It is not unlikely that a similar disaster can reoccur, and the pandemic has offered an opportunity to get insights into a future fully-fledged climate change crisis. Municipalities have a critical role to play in addressing these challenges. What can we learn from this crisis that can change the way societies operate? What are the changes needed to support development of healthier, more resilient communities and behavioural change?

The following lessons align with the SUED principles and have informed the development of the Urban Economic Plan:

Urban planning: There is a need for adaptive, urban integrated plans to ensure sustainable urban development and infrastructure provision including appropriate housing is planned in a way that can help minimise impact from future risks. Understanding dependencies and synergies across urban sectors, whether they are related to economy or infrastructure, can support better planning for the future, maximising benefits for the community.

Capacity-building: Strengthening preparedness and emergency response capacity is critical. This means better preparedness in terms of financing, service delivery and business continuity including budgeting for future crises, emergency operations centres, capacity building, drills, and human resources redeployment plans. Ensuring city officials are empowered with the knowledge to plan effectively and proactively will mean they will be better able to respond to crises. It will also be important to make sure that communication to the community is clear and public awareness campaigns are consistently available to all and in a format and language understandable to all. Green cities: Improving the environmental performance of cities through low-carbon and environmentally sensitive actions not only mitigates against climate change risks but has clear health benefits for society. Redefining green spaces and the way city centres are designed for business as well as traffic management has been a critical short-term response to the current pandemic, proving a valuable long-term planning target.

Social inclusion: It has been clear that those who were most severely affected by the pandemic have been vulnerable groups and people already at risk and living in poverty. Understanding who these vulnerable groups are, and prioritising policies to confront spatial, social, and economic exclusion, will both help to support overall growth and ensure safeguards are in place in the face of another shock. Targeting women and girls in all efforts remains a key aspect. It will be vital to intentionally apply gender lenses to the design of social assistance programmes and economic stimulus programmes to achieve greater opportunities, social protection, and meaningful impact.

Economic growth and recovery: Careful consideration and analysis of key sectors’ supply chains and their critical links such as for agriculture and manufacturing, as well as trade support development planning, can also protect livelihoods from external shocks. The pandemic has been a clear indication of the need to focus on local inputs to ensure food security and at the same time safeguard export-oriented products to maintain revenue generation. There is also a need to understand the importance of the informal sector as a contributor to the economy and its vulnerability in terms of a lack of financial security particularly in economic downturns. Improving market access and introducing marketing efficiency through adoption of innovative processes that connect buyers and sellers could support access to finance when needed. This may include the adoption of technology to promote marketing and information sharing, and formalising product delivery services that can support the continuation of activities, but it can also work as collateral for financial support.

Smart tools: Adoption of smart technology improves provision and efficiencies. At its basic form leveraging information technology (IT) systems can support information-sharing and communication and has been critical to this pandemic from M-Pesa payments to virtual meetings and maintaining market access. Increased use can help better match the community’s demand for services such as the required transport demand with excess supply in real time and provide travel pattern visibility, helping passenger and logistics operations become nimbler considering a quickly evolving context.

1.7 Structure of this Report

Following this introduction, the report is structured as follows:

> Section 2: provides a summary of key findings from the Diagnostics Report which forms the basis for the development of the UEP. This includes sumaries of the demographic and economic profiles and the infrastructure and environmental assessments. The section details the key challenges and drivers for growth, identifying Wote

Municipality’s key sectors. > Section 3: introduces the Wote Municipality development concept, supported by the economic vision developed by the local stakeholders. > Section 4: outlines the Urban Economic Development Plan in detail. For each of the economic sectors, soft initiatives and climate resilient infrastructure projects are identified, supported by the shortlisted VC and anchor projects.

Cross-sectoral infrastructure projects are analysed to ensure linkages between each of the key sectors. > Section 5: presents a range of implementation considerations and schedules to support the next stages of the SUED Programme. The report is supported by a series of appendices, in which:

Appendix A – Wote Municipality Diagnostic Report

The purpose of the report is to assess the current position of the economy and state of infrastructure, alongside the regional, national and international context, before the consideration of emerging economic growth opportunities and infrastructure needs.

Appendix B – Technical Briefing Paper

This captures the process followed from identification to assessment of growth opportunities for Wote Municipality and provides recommendations on those with the greatest potential to maximise benefits and be developed further. The contents of this report formed the backbone of the UEP.

Appendix C – Wote Municipality Social Inclusion Study

This study was a key part of the diagnostic process and engaged with special interest groups through interviews and focus group discussions. The study identified the groups that are excluded in socio-economic activities in Wote Municipality and explored how and why they are excluded. The Study made a series of recommendations for the SUED programme to ensure inclusion and to address the multiple barriers that these groups face.

Appendix D – Climate Vulnerability Assessment

Has been undertaken to outline the climate vulnerability context for the selected infrastructure projects to be developed in Wote Municipality. The Climate Vulnerability Assessment will complement associated pre-feasibility and feasibility studies.

2. Wote Urban Diagnostics

Before any proposed interventions are developed it is important to understand the local development context and potential opportunities and barriers to growth. The Municipality’s assessment has been undertaken in the UEP diagnostic process, as presented in Appendix A.

The diagnostics phase was a critical process to establish a foundation for identifying solutions that can deliver economic, social and environmental benefits. This section provides a summary of the diagnostic report’s assessment of:

> Wote Municipality planning and regional context, its socio-economic profile, with urban and economic conditions and trends; > The state of existing infrastructure; and > Environmental and climate risks.