HOUSING MARKET TRENDS: RATE RELIEF ARRIVES
Erik J. Martin BANKRATE.COM
Leaves aren’t the only things falling this autumn: Mortgage rates are finally heading down, too. And that, combined with a seasonal dip in home prices, is causing some end-of-year excitement among homebuyers and sellers.
The median existing-home price was $416,700 in August, per the National Association of Realtors — a record high for August, but still down from $422,600 a month earlier. And average rates for the benchmark 30year fixed-rate mortgage loan have dropped from a high this year of 7.39 percent in May to 6.24 percent in late September.
With rates already down more than a full percentage point and more Fed interest-rate cuts on deck, many market-watchers are asking, what do the final three months of 2024 have in store for sellers and buyers? We reached out to a panel of pros for their real estate trends and forecasts.
Q4 2024 housing trends:
What to expect
The last quarter of the year is usually a slowdown period for real estate markets across the country. Typically, home sales tend to decrease in the fourth quarter and stay subdued until spring. During this period, there are usually fewer buyers, the number of homes for sale declines and proper-
ties are more likely to see price cuts compared to other times of the year.
“But this fourth quarter could be different for a few reasons,” says Rick Sharga, president and CEO of CJ Patrick Company. “First, the housing supply has increased nationally. Secondly, rates have trended down lately — not necessarily low enough to encourage a flood of new listings, but certainly low enough to entice more prospective buyers to enter the market. These lower rates, combined with slowing home price appreciation and wage growth that’s finally outpacing inflation, improve affordability.” Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic,
Pending homes sales in U.S. creep up as borrowing costs drop
Michael Sasso BLOOMBERG NEWS
U.S. pending home sales ticked up in August from a record low, as falling mortgage rates encouraged some buyers to dip a toe into the market.
A measure of contract signings for previously owned homes climbed 0.6 percent to 70.6 last month, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors Thursday. That came in below the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who had the index rising 1 percent.
“A slight upward turn reflects a modest improvement in housing affordability, primarily because mortgage rates descended to 6.5 percent in August,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement. “However, contract signings remain near cyclical lows even as home prices keep marching to new record highs.”
Realtors are counting on buyers responding to lower mortgage rates, which recently have fallen further to just above 6 percent. But would-be buyers have been slow to return to the market, with sales of existing homes falling to a 10-month low in August. And many homeowners with sub-3 percent mortgage rates on their loans are reluctant to sell, keeping the supply of available homes at roughly threefourths of 2019 levels.
In one hopeful sign, the share of consumers who said they plan to buy a home in the next six months rose to the highest level in a year in Conference Board survey data this week, helped by the prospect of further interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Across the U.S., pending sales rose in the Midwest, South and West, but the Northeast index fell to its lowest point since the start of the pandemic in 2020.
Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.
seconds those sentiments.
“Many buyers have been waiting on the sidelines to purchase, and many will now purchase quickly,” she says. “Therefore, we most likely won’t see the typical slowdown in the last three months of the year.”
Q4 mortgage rate projections
As of September 25, the rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.24 percent versus 5.43 percent for a 15year fixed home loan, per Bankrate’s latest survey of large lenders. And housing experts envision rates dipping even lower over the rest of the year.
“During the next three months, we’re probably go-
ing to see average 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the low 6 percent or perhaps the high 5 percent range,” says Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate.
“The path forward for mortgage rates will depend on the state of the economy, the job market, what the Fed does and more. Consider that last fall, the average 30year fixed mortgage rate briefly hit 8 percent for the first time since 2000. Now, we’re moving in the right direction — although today’s rates are still much higher than they were for most of the past 15 years.”
Bugnara anticipates 6.25 percent and 5.625 percent average rates, respectively, for 30-year and 15-year mort-
gage loans this quarter. But Boesel expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average 6.0 percent this quarter.
Where home prices are heading
Housing prices have been on the rise for quite some time, and that doesn’t look to change in Q4: Buyers should not expect to see a significant drop in prices before the end of the year.
“Home prices should increase this quarter by 3.9 percent year-over-year,” says Boesel. “Continued homebuyer demand bumping up a still-limited supply will push prices up.”
Bugnara concurs, predicting that we’ll see home prices jump 3 percent to 5 percent over the quarter.
Dennis Shirshikov, an adjunct professor of economics at City University of New York, also foresees prices remaining high — “however, you might see slight cooling in certain overvalued markets,” he says.
Housing inventory predictions for Q4
Boesel anticipates the inventory that does arrive on the market to sell fast. “As new supply enters the market, it should quickly exit as homebuyers waiting on the sidelines act quickly,” she says.
Strategies for homebuyers, sellers
Now that the tea leaves have been read on real estate trends for Q4, how should consumers proceed? If you’re hoping to buy, be sure your finances are in order.
“Don’t buy a home before you’re ready,” says Rossman. “Make sure you have a cushion for transaction costs, repairs and maintenance. It’s better to rent for longer than to buy before you are ready.”
Still, be prepared to pounce if a great opportunity arises. “Competition for properties should remain brisk in quarter number four, so buyers should be ready to act when they find the home they want to purchase,” Boesel says. “I’d recommend considering less competitive markets where your purchasing power can go further,” says Shirshikov.
“We’re unlikely to see a huge wave of homeowners listing their properties for sale until mortgage rates come down significantly — probably below 5.5 percent,” says Sharga. However, he notes that inventory levels are up about 40 percent from last year. “The inventory of new homes for sale is actually back to pre-pandemic levels, so overall there’s more to buy,” he says. But Shirshikov does not think inventory will grow much more this year, particularly for entry-level homes. “Many homeowners locked into low mortgage rates will continue holding off on selling, restricting supply,” he says.
Docket No. 2024-0158
Byserviceofprocessbypublication,DevinJarelWright isherebyrequiredtoappearandanswerorotherwise defendagainsttheComplaintfiledagainsthimby Plaintiff,AsheWright,byherattorney,M.StuartSaylor, 517CumminsStreet,Franklin,TN37064,withinthirty (30)daysafterthedateofthelastpublicationofthis notice;otherwiseadefaultjudgmentwillbeentered againstMr.Wrightinopencourtfortherelief demanded in the Complaint. (TGI1467079 9/13, 9/20, 9/27, 10/4/24)
TheSTATEOFHAWAIIPUBLICUTILITESCOMISSION(“Commission”), pursuanttoHawaiiRevisedStatues(“HRS”)§§269-12and269-16,HEREBY GIVESNOTICEthatitwillholdapublichearingregardingHawaiiGas’(the “Company”)requestforarateincrease,asstatedinitsApplicationforApprovalof RateIncreasesandRevisedRateSchedulesandRules(“Application”)filedon July 26, 2024. The public hearing will be held on: Friday, October 4, 2024, at 5:00 p.m. Lihue State Office Building Conference Room 209 A, B & C 1680 Haleukana Street Lihue, Hawaii 96766
HawaiiGasisapublicutilitythatprovidesgasservicetoapproximately 36,000customersontheislandsofOahu,Hawaii,Kauai,Maui,Molokai,and Lanai.TheCompany’soperationsincludethepurchase,production,transmission, distribution,andsaleofnaturalgastoresidential,commercial,andindustrial customers. OnJuly26,2024,HawaiiGasfileditsApplicationrequestingatotalrevenue increaseof$24.346million,oranapproximately17.67%increaseoverrevenueat currenteffectiverates.TheCompanyfurtherseeksapprovalofafairrateofreturn of9.05%onratebase,revisionstoitsrateschedulesandrules,andapprovalof twotariffriders.Underitsproposal,HawaiiGaswouldrecoverupgradecoststoits bareandcoatedsteelreplacementprogramsthroughitsMainUpgradeProgram (“MUP”)Rider.IncrementalannualincreasestotheCompany’sinsurance premiumswouldbeaddressedbytheInsurancePremiumRecovery(“IPR”)Rider. By
Pursuanttosections91-3(b)and91-4(b)(2),HawaiiRevisedStatutes(HRS),noticeisherebygiventhatthe DepartmentofHumanServiceshasadoptedemergencyruleschapter17-802.5relatingtoChildCareGrant Program.
TheemergencyruleswereadoptedonSeptember11,2024andshallbeineffectuntilJanuary8,2025 pursuant to section 91-3(b), HRS. The emergency rules as adopted are as follows: 2024 EMERGENCY RULES RELATING TO CHILD CARE GRANT PROGRAM UNDER CHAPTER 17-802.5 Section17-802.5-3,Standardsforgrantapplications.Thissectionaddsverifiabledocumentationthatan organizationorindividualthatownsoroperatesbothaprivateeducationalinstitutionandachildcarefacility mayprovidetoshowclearlythatachildcaregrantwouldnotsupportorbenefittheprivateeducational institution.
AcopyoftheemergencyruleswillbemailedatNOCOSTtoanyinterestedpersonbyrequestingacopyby calling (808) 586-7188 or by writing to:
Department of Human Services Benefit, Employment and Support Services Division Attention: Child Care Regulation Program Office 1010 Richards Street, Suite 512 Honolulu, Hawaii 96813
The emergency rules are available for public viewing at the following website: https://humanservices.hawaii.gov/admin-rules-2/admin-rules-for-programs/ Upon request, this notice is available in alternate formats such as large print, Braille, or electronic copy. Ryan I. Yamane Director
(TGI1469540 9/27/24)
TheCommissionwillinvestigatewhetherHawaiiGas’proposedreliefisjust andreasonable.Theforegoingisabriefsummaryoftherequestsincludedin theApplication.CopiesoftheApplicationareavailableforpublicreviewthrough theCommission’selectronicCaseandDocumentManagementSystem,accessible athttps://hpuc.my.site.com/cdms/s/search,DocketNumber2024-0158.In addition,copiesoftheApplicationarealsoavailableforreviewbycontacting theCommission’sHonoluluOffice[(808)586-2020],KauaiDistrictOffice[(808) 274-3232], or the Division of Consumer Advocacy [(808) 586-2800]. Allinterestedpersonsareinvitedtoattendthepublichearingtostatetheir viewsonHawaiiGas’Application.Anypersonmayrequestanauxiliaryaid/service oranaccommodationduetoadisabilitybycontractingtheCommissionnolater than5businessdayspriortothehearingdate.Requestsmadeasearlyaspossible have a greater likelihood of being fulfilled. Statementsmayalsobee-mailedtothePublicUtilitiesCommissionat puc@hawaii.gov ormailedtothePublicUtilitiesCommission,465SouthKing Street,Room103,Honolulu,Hawaii96813.Allwrittenstatementsshouldreference DocketNo.2024-0158.MotionstoInterveneorParticipateinthisproceeding shallcomplywithsubchapter4,RulesofPracticeandProcedureBeforethePublic UtilitiesCommission,HawaiiAdministrativeRules,Title16,Chapter601.Amotion tointerveneorparticipateinthisproceedingshallbefiledwiththeCommission’s Honolulu Office by November 8, 2024. Leodoloff R. Asuncion,