REAL ESTATE Insider
A Publication Of The Group, Inc.
Vol. 36, No. 4
May 2012
Long-range forecast: People have Northern Colorado on radar Perhaps all the pleasant words written about Northern Colorado in recent years have made a lasting impression. At least, that might be one interpretation of a recent population projection for the region. According to Woods & Poole Economics Inc., a leading economic analysis firm based in Washington D.C., Northern Colorado is poised to be one of the country’s most fashionable addresses over the coming 30 years. Based on the Woods & Poole analysis for 2010-2040, the Fort Collins-Loveland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)―which covers Larimer County―should grow at an annual average rate of 2.33 percent, the third-fastest rate out of 366 metro markets that it measured. Only Provo-Orem, Utah, (2.42) and St. George, Utah, (2.37) are expected to grow faster. The Greeley MSA―which covers Weld County―is ranked 21st, at 1.81 percent. Among states, Colorado is expected to grow at a 1.34 percent rate, or ninth-fastest. In raw numbers, the firm predicts that Larimer and Weld counties combined will add nearly 500,000 people by 2040, pushing the region past the 1 million population threshhold. 599,320
Fort Collins/Loveland MSA
435,710
Greeley MSA 300,640 91,330
90,190
1970 Projected job growth Augmented reality Real estate by the numbers
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187,300
254,360
132,160
1990
2010
2040 (Projection)
About Woods & Poole Economics Woods & Poole analyzes economic and demographic data drawn from multiple government sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The firm then applies its own projection methods to forecast more than 900 economic and demographic variables including population, employment and income trends for all 50 states and 366 metropolitan areas. The company’s database, which is recalibrated each year, is used by economic development agencies, market research firms, state demographers, news services and specialty publications.
Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc.
POPULATION GROWTH
Projections point to continued job growth in Northern Colorado If regional population growth is going to measure up to the expectations that Woods & Poole Economics Inc. has established, then surely there will need to be jobs to sustain the volume. The firm’s analysis appears to confirm Northern Colorado’s track record as a jobs magnet will hold fast. Among 366 metro areas surveyed, the Fort Collins-Loveland MSA ranks No. 2 nationally in projected annual employment growth between 2010 and 2040, or a rate of 2.27 percent. Laredo, Texas, at 2.32 percent annual growth, is first. The Greeley MSA is expected to rank 45th, at 1.79 percent annual growth. By comparison, Colorado’s rate of job growth is projected at 1.55 percent, or seventh among the states. The national average will be 1.31 percent. In total job numbers, Woods & Poole projects Fort Collins-Loveland will add 179,180 jobs between 2010 and 2040, while payrolls for the Greeley MSA should expand by 79,070 jobs. In the Fort Collins-Loveland area, the retail trade (approximately 40,000) and health care (approximately 30,000) will be major contributor. In the Greeley area, retail (approximately 7,500), and transportation and warehousing (approximately) 7,000, are seen as the top sources. Looking back, Northern Colorado cities were also among the top job producing communities in the country between 1970 and 2010. During that period, the Fort Collins-Loveland area added jobs at annual rate of 4.2 percent―15th in the country―for a total of 150,440 new jobs. The Greeley area ranked 55th during that period, at 2.99 percent job growth annually, or 77,690 additional jobs. 365,610
Fort Collins/Loveland MSA Greeley MSA 186,430 35,980
105,350 34,610
1970
66,690
1990
191,380 112,300
2010
2040 (Projection)
Survey: Deals for investment, vacation homes robust in 2011 Demand for vacation and investment housing rebounded in 2011, together representing 38 percent of all housing transactions for the year. In its 2012 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey, the National Association of Realtors reported vacation home purchases totaled 11 percent of the total market, up from 10 percent in 2010. Investment housing sales surged to 27 percent of the market, up from 17 percent. In transaction volume, vacation sales increased 7 percent to 502,000. Investment purchases jumped 64.5 percent to 1.23 million. The rise in investment acquisitions reflected the availability of bargain prices, combined with a trend in rising rental incomes. In fact, 41 percent of investment buyers in 2011 bought more than one property, the NAR survey showed. Investors and vacation home buyers also brought cash to the table. In 49 percent of the investment deals, buyers paid in cash, while 42 percent of vacation-home transactions were cash deals. Also, the median age for investment-home buyers was 50, with earnings of $86,100, who made purchases within 25 miles of their residence. Contact me if you’d like to learn about a real estate investment opportunity in Northern Colorado.
Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc.
TOTAL EMPLOYED
FC-Loveland rents eclipse rates in Denver metro area Average lease rates for two-bedroom apartments in the Fort Collins-Loveland area have soared past Denver metro area rates, according to the latest report by the Colorado Division of Housing. Renters in Fort Collins-Loveland are paying $973 per month, compared to just $932 in Denver, the Division of Housing announced in the Fourth Quarter 2011 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey. Fort Collins-Loveland has been experiencing steady increases over the past two years, with average rents climbing $119--14 percent--in that time period. At the same time, Denver-area rents increased $56, or 6.4 percent. The accelerated rates in Northern Colorado are attributed to the fact that supply has not kept pace with strong rental demand. The same survey show a vacancy rate of just 3.4 percent in the Fort Collins-Loveland area, well below the state average of 5.6 percent. The market conditions Real Estate Technology | Powered by Active Website are also attracting investors and developers to the market. For instance, an investment group recently paid $29.93 million to buy The Arbors at Sweetgrass apartment complex in east Fort Collins. Scope Loveland-based developer McWhinney saidSearch it plans to build a 314-unit apartment complex in east The first in the Real Estate Industry to release an augmented reality search for Fort Collins. Android devices, Scope Search displays property information on the device when
Advances in technology continue to change the way we live in our world. Current smartphones are equipped with GPS, tilt sensors, compasses and video cameras, enabling users to link information with relevant images– augmented reality. Augmented reality is interaction between the virtual world of information and real-life situations in real time.
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Technology Aids Home Search
a customer aims their phone’s camera down a street. Information on available properties appears in aDIFFERENCE pop up for easy viewing. THE GROUP
The Group App brings a high-tech touch to house hunting. It is available for Android users now and Additional Functionality Carmakers are exploring for iPhones and iPads within a couple of weeks. to the interactive search functionality, the app incorporating this technology in In additionThe app, available in your phone’s app store (search syncs to each customer’s account area, ensuring car windshields. Imagine as you also The Group Real Estate), theas following features: saved datafor is accessible on their mobile device has as well move down a street that icons your brokerage’s website. • Scope Search – Use your phone to look around will open to show information; The app is branded to your brokerage and gives properties for sale within ¾ mile from you when that bridge over there was customers theyou…all ability to customize the app to a desired show on the phone augmented reality. built using to recognize built, what band is playing at that agent as well. The app has been the phone number associated with the mobile device nightclub on the left, and whether and will automatically if a customer • Journeycustomize Searchthe–app Homes for sale pop up on a map that new restaurant up the street already has a preferred agent. while you walk or drive. Click on the icon for full has any tables available. Sounds sale.not have If a customerdetails is not in of the homes databasefor or does unusual maybe, but it is very a preferred agent selected, they have the option to do possible! so within the application, allowing them to easily sendfinger draw a line on • Perimeter Search –With your communications theiraround chosen realtor. the tomap the area you wish to search. Homes Augmented reality is changing the willestate popapp up provides in that area. launch offor oursale first real way people hunt for houses. Read The customers yet another medium for engaging with your on and find out how The Group brand. Implementing the open app willhouses further position your location. • Look for near your brokerage as a market leader and help set the stage is using augmented reality to help growth in years to come. Download it today from the app store! customers find the perfect home. for continued
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Real estate by the numbers • 66.8 – The percentage of Colorado high school graduates in 2009 who went on to attend college. Among the state’s 10 largest school districts, Poudre R-1 in Fort Collins had the highest ratio of graduates who attended college, at 76.1 percent.
• $4.35 million – Amount MIMG XXXIV Village Green LLC of Franktown paid to Village Green Holdings LLLP for the Village Green Apartments property at 1213 26th Avenue in Greeley. • 4,500 – Square footage Timberline Shops, an affiliate of Chrisland Commercial Real Estate, will develop at 2638 S. Timberline Road in Fort Collins. The building will be located within an existing shopping center anchored by King Soopers at the intersection of Timberline Road and Custer Drive. The building is already fully leased, with Qdoba expected to occupy 2,700 square feet and TCBY to occupy 1,800 square feet. • $2.13 million – Amount Leed Fabrication Services paid to acquire 5100 Boyd Lake Ave. in Loveland, CO, from Cee Jay Tool Co. for nearly $2.13 million or $97 per square foot. The single-story, 21,842-square-foot industrial building was built in 1976, renovated in 2004 and is in the Fort Collins/Loveland Industrial submarket. • 44 – Rank of Colorado in home mortgage delinquencies in February. Only six states in the nation had a lower delinquency rate than Colorado. In February, 4 percent of homes in Colorado had mortgages that were more than 90 days delinquent. That is a year-over-year decrease of 0.6 percent. Nationally, 7.2 percent of loans were delinquent. • 23,000 – Square footage of Chuck E Cheese building at College Ave. and Prospect Road in Fort Collins purchased by developer Les Kaplan for $1.8 million, the second Midtown building Kaplan has bought in the past two years. • $5.8 million – Amount US Real Estate LP of San Antonio, Texas, paid to buy the Walgreens building at 205 E. Eisenhower Blvd. in Loveland. • $5.7 million – Amount paid by Greeley Property LLC of Cambridge, Mass. for the Walgreen retail building at 1641 23rd Ave. in Greeley. It was the second Walgreens building to be sold in recent weeks. • $29.5 million – Amount paid by PT Johnstown LLC of Vestavia, Alabama for the Northern Colorado Rehabilitation Hospital facility at 4401 Union Street in Johnstown.