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www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
THE LAND — DECEMBER 10/DECEMBER 17, 2021
USDA forecast calls for higher dairy prices, higher feed costs This column was written for the marketSkim milk powder production amounting week ending Dec. 10. ed to 58.3 million pounds, down 4.9 million pounds or 7.7 percent from Preliminary data had October milk outSeptember and down 5 million pounds or put at 18.5 billion pounds, down 0.5 per7.9 percent below a year ago. Year-tocent from October 2020. The latest Dairy date, skim milk powder, at 467.7 million Products report shows where the milk pounds, is down 19.3 percent from 2020. went … or didn’t. n Cheese output totaled 1.147 billion pounds, up 1.1 percent from September The U.S. Department of Agriculture MIELKE MARKET and 0.9 percent above October 2020. YearWEEKLY lowered its estimate for both 2021 and to-date output hit 11.3 billion pounds, up 2022 milk production in the latest World By Lee Mielke 3.1 percent from the same period in Agricultural Supply and Demand 2020. Estimates report for the sixth month in a row — again citing lower expectWisconsin produced 288.7 million ed dairy cow numbers and slower pounds of the October total, up 0.3 growth in milk per cow. percent from September but 2.7 percent below a year ago. California output, at 205.6 million pounds, was up 2.1 percent from September and 2.7 percent The global market holds good promise above a year ago. Idaho produced 85.1 million and the Dec. 3 Dairy and Food Market pounds, up 2.1 percent from September but 0.9 perAnalyst cites the lack of global milk cent below a year ago. supplies and the potential market share gains from American exporters. Italian-style cheese totaled 489.8 million pounds, Shipping delays are also improving. up 0.8 percent from September and 3.5 percent above a year ago. American-type cheese, at 457.5 million 2021 production and marketings were estimated pounds, was up 2 percent from September but 0.6 at 226.2 and 225.2 billion pounds respectively, down percent below a year ago. Mozzarella totaled 377.8 200 million pounds on production from last month’s million pounds, up 1.7 percent from a year ago. estimates and 100 million pounds lower on marketCheddar, the cheese traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, totaled 320.7 million pounds. ings. If realized, 2021 production would still be up 3 billion pounds or 1.3 percent from 2020. This is up 12.2 million pounds or 4 percent from 2022 production and marketings were estimated September, but 4.7 million pounds or 1.4 percent at 227.7 and 226.6 billion pounds respectively, down below a year ago. Year-to-date, cheddar stands at 400 million pounds on both. If realized, 2022 pro3.3 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent from 2020. Churns gave us 159.4 million pounds of butter, up duction would be up 1.5 billion pounds or 0.7 percent from 2021. 16 million pounds or 11.2 percent from September, Butter, cheese, and whey price forecasts for 2021 but 2.6 million pounds or 1.6 percent below a year were raised from last month based on current prices ago, as less milk was produced in the month and and strength in demand. The nonfat dry milk price more went to the vat than the churn. Year-to-date butter output stands at 1.7 billion pounds, down 2.2 forecast was unchanged. percent from 2020. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast was raised Yogurt output totaled 375 million pounds, down 3 on higher cheese and whey prices and projected to average $17.05 per hundredweight, up a dime from percent from a year ago. Dry whey totaled 78.2 million pounds, up 8 million last month’s estimate and compares to $18.16 in pounds or 11.4 percent from September, and 3.1 mil- 2020 and $16.96 in 2019. The 2022 average was put at $18.15, up 40 cents from what was expected last lion pounds or 4 percent above a year ago. Year-todate, dry whey was at 768.9 million pounds, down 4 month. The 2021 Class IV forecast was raised on the percent from a year ago. Stocks fell to 58.1 million higher butter price and should average $16.05, up a pounds, down 5.2 million or 8.2 percent from nickel from last month and compares to $13.49 in September and 11 million pounds or 15.9 percent 2020 and $16.30 in 2019. The 2022 average was probelow those a year ago.
MARKETING
jected at $19, up 30 cents. Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts for 2022 were raised on lower expected milk supplies, according to the WASDE. This month’s corn supply and use outlook was unchanged from last month. The projected seasonaverage farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Soybean supply and use projections were also unchanged. Based on a review of EPA’s proposed rule for 2020-22 renewable fuel obligation targets, soybean oil used for biofuel was unchanged at 11 billion pounds. Season-average soybean and soybean oil price forecasts were unchanged at $12.10 per bushel and 65 cents per pound, respectively. The soybean meal price forecast was increased $5 to $330 per short ton. There were 48,200 dairy cows that were sent to slaughter Thanksgiving week, down 11,000 from the previous week but 3,000 head or 6.6 percent above a year ago. n Butter and milkfat pushed the Dec. 7 Global Dairy Trade auction higher, rising for the fourth consecutive event. The weighted average was up 1.4 percent following the 1.9 percent advance Nov. 16 and 4.3 percent on Nov. 2. Butter again led the gains, up 4.6 percent, following the 3.5 percent rise on Nov. 16 and 4.7 percent on Nov. 2. Anhydrous milkfat was up 3 percent after gaining 1.3 percent on Nov. 16 and 4.2 percent Nov. 2. Skim milk powder was up 1.3 percent after a 1.4 percent rise, and whole milk powder inched up 0.6 percent after jumping 1.9 percent last time. GDT cheddar was up 1 percent after jumping 2.2 percent in the last event. StoneX Dairy Group says the GDT 80 percent butterfat butter price equates to $2.5627 per pound U.S., up 11.4 cents, after gaining 8.2 cents last time and 10.6 cents the time before that. CME butter closed Dec. 10 at a bargain $2.1225. GDT Cheddar, at $2.3676, was up 2.6 cents after gains of 4.8 cents on Nov. 16 and 28.7 cents on Nov. 2. Dec. 10’s CME block cheddar was at $1.8650. GDT skim milk powder averaged $1.6877 per pound, up from $1.6676. Whole milk powder averaged $1.8178 per pound, up from $1.8086. CME Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Dec. 10 at $1.6250 per pound. n See MIELKE, pg. 17
2021 variety crop trial results available
Less milk meant less powder. Nonfat dry milk output totaled 124.7 million pounds, up 5.5 million pounds or 4.6 percent from September, but down 16.6 million or 11.7 percent below a year ago. ST. PAUL — The Minnesota Agricultural barley, canola, corn grain, corn silage, oat, soybean, Powder year-to-date totaled 1.7 billion pounds, up Experiment Station and the College of Food, spring wheat, winter rye, and winter wheat. 3.9 percent. Stocks fell to 221.8 million pounds, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences have Results can be found at varietytrials.umn.edu/2021. down 42.5 million pounds or 16.1 percent from published the 2021 Minnesota Field Crop Trials. September and were down 13.7 million pounds or This article was submitted by the University of Crops included in this year’s trial include alfalfa, Minnesota. 5.9 percent below those a year ago. v
