Cash Grain Markets

Outlook meeting. The reports were viewed as neutral to slightly bearish for corn.

Outlook: A warmer forecast for the Midwest limited the upside in new crop corn this week. I don’t believe we’ll see “early” planting this year, but it’s too early to say that planting will be “late.” U.S. planting weather will be a daily headline and demand attention. The April WASDE report will be watched to see if exports are increased and/or corn for ethanol is reduced.

For the week, May corn slid 17 cents lower to $6.43.5, July dropped 16.25 cents to $6.19.75, and December fell 9.75 cents to $5.56.75 per bushel.

The April WASDE report will be published on April 11. The first official supply/demand sheets for 202324 will be released on the May 12 WASDE report.

Grain prices are effective cash close on April 11. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.

by China. This week’s sales were 49.1 million bushels, bringing total commitments to 1.464 billion bushels but still down 32 percent from last year. The USDA is predicting a 25 percent decline in year-onyear exports. We need to average 14.5 million bushels of sales per week to hit the USDA’s 1.85 billion bushel export target.

Weekly ethanol production was unchanged at 1 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks fell by 391,000 bpd to 25.1 million bpd, a larger draw than the trade expected and the third weekly draw in a row. Net ethanol margins improved by 6 cents to 41 cents per gallon. Gasoline demand was seasonally higher, up 150,000 bpd to 9.3 million bpd, which was a 14-week high and 8.6 percent above the same week last year.

Finland joined NATO this week as the 31st member. Russian President Putin is not happy since this doubles Russia’s border with NATO members. According to Bloomberg data, the yuan surpassed the dollar as the most traded currency in Russia in the last two months.

The average trade guess for U.S. corn ending stocks for the April World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report is 1.319 billion bushels vs. 1.342 billion last month. World corn ending stocks are expected to be 295.01 mmt compared to 296.46 mmt in March. Brazil’s corn crop is estimated at 126.08 mmt vs. 125 mmt in March and Argentina’s corn crop is estimated at 37.12 mmt compared to 40 mmt last month.

From March 31: Corn stocks as of March 1 were about as expected at 7.401 billion bushels vs. 7.47 billion bushels estimated and 7.758 billion bushels last year. Corn acres for 2023 were bigger than expected, up 3.4 million from last year at 91.996 million acres vs. 90.88 million estimated, 88.579 million last year, and 91 million at the USDA’s February

SOYBEANS — Soybeans gapped higher to begin the week on many of the same factors that supported the corn market. The March 31 USDA reports were friendly to soybeans. Argentina published their “soy dollar” exchange rate of 300 pesos per dollar which will be in effect from April 8 through May 24. The official exchange rate is 211 pesos per dollar. Traders interpreted this as negative for U.S. soybean prices and are banking on heavy Argentine sales as we saw in the last two soy dollar exchange rate programs. In my opinion, this may occur; but it may be at a later date since Argentine farmers are facing possibly the smallest soybean crop since 2000 and inflation is running at 100 percent. Is this enough to entice them to sell and give up their hedge against further inflation? Argentina’s Secretary of Agriculture said only 5.5 mmt of this year’s soybeans have been sold vs. 12 mmt last year by this date.

We saw 10 million bushels of U.S. old crop soybeans sold to unknown announced in this week’s daily export sales flashes and 20,000 metric tons of soyoil to unknown. Soybean planting in the United States was not reported; but Louisiana reported their soybean planting at 11 percent complete vs. 5 percent on average. Arkansas and Mississippi each reported 2 percent complete compared to 2-3 percent on average.

The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina expects Brazil to surpass Argentina as the leading global meal exporter this year for the first time in 25 years due to Argentina’s short crop. They are estimating Argentina’s meal exports at 20 mmt, down from 23.5 mmt last year, the lowest since 2003, but would still represent 29 percent of global supply. Brazil’s meal exports could be as high as 21-23 mmt. The USDA is predicting Argentina’s meal exports at 24.9 mmt. Conab has Brazil’s meal exports at 20 mmt and Abiove is pegging them at 20.7 mmt. As of March 31, AgRural put Brazil’s soybean harvest at 74 percent complete vs. 76 percent on average. Safras and Mercado raised Brazil’s soybean production to 155 mmt from 152.4 mmt. It’s estimated Brazilian farm-