Snow may lessen Dakota soybean acres

ers have sold 44 percent of this year’s soybean crop compared to 59.6 percent on average.

Weekly export sales were a disappointment at just 5.7 million bushels for the old crop and net cancellations of 1.8 million bushels for new crop. Old crop total commitments are 1.834 billion bushels and are down 11 percent from last year. The USDA is predicting export sales to be down 6.6 percent year-on-year. We need to average 6.6 million bushels of sales per week to achieve the USDA’s forecast for 2.015 billion bushels of exports. New crop total commitments stand at 62.5 million bushels compared to 311 million bushels by this date last year.

The February National Agricultural Statistics Service Oilseed Crush was reported at a new monthly record at 176.9 million bushels, slightly higher than the 175.7 million estimate. Soyoil stocks were modestly higher than the trade estimate at 2.362 billion pounds versus the 2.339 billion pounds estimated.

The average trade guess for U.S. ending soybean stocks is 198 million bushels vs. 210 million bushels last month. World soybean ending stocks are expected at 98.56 mmt vs. 100.01 mmt last month. Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated at 153.67 mmt compared to 153.0 mmt in March. Argentina’s soybean crop is expected at 29.3 mmt vs. 33 mmt last month.

From March 31: Soybean stocks on March 1 were lower than expected at 1.685 billion bushels compared to 1.742 billion bushels estimated and 1.932 billion bushels last year. This was the lowest stocks number in six years. Soybean acres for 2023 were also lower than expected at 87.5 million acres vs. 88.242 million estimated, 87.45 million last year, and 87.5 million at the USDA’s February Outlook conference. The acreage number was barely inside the 87.4 to 89.6-million-acre range of estimates.

Outlook: Heavy snow in the Dakotas this week will keep their weather in the headlines. Remember a sizable portion of the increase in soybeans acres this year is expected to come from North Dakota with an 850,000 acre increase in soybeans and an 800,000 acre increase in corn. U.S. planting weather in general will continue to attract attention as well as Argentina’s farmers› reaction to the new soy dollar exchange rate. Also important in the coming week will be where the USDA puts the soybean ending stocks number. Is the market prepared for ending stocks below 200 million bushels?

For the week, May and July soybeans each fell 13 cents to $14.92.5 and $14.62.5 respectively, and November was a dime lower at $13.09.75 per bushel.

Weekly price changes in May wheat for the week ended April 6: Chicago wheat tumbled 16.75 cents to $6.75.5, Kansas City was 13.25 cents lower at $8.64.5, and Minneapolis crashed 23.75 cents to $8.72 per bushel.

Cheese imports were up 16.1 percent from a year ago and up 10 percent year-to-date, and butter imports were up 68.9 percent from a year ago and up 59 percent year-to-date.

Ron O’Brien, president of New Zealand-based Nui Markets North America, cited some contributing factors for the depressed GDT and lower exports in the April 10 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast. They included interest rate hikes in New Zealand, additional whole milk powder being added to the offerings, and farmers selling futures. O’Brien said the weakening price situation in Oceania is due to buyers “sitting on their hands.”

Mexican exports have been a bright spot, O’Brien admitted. However, “With Mexican currency trends higher vs. the dollar, and interest rates discouraging Mexico from building inventory, Mexican demand will not outpace a growing U.S. supply.” n

The week’s GDT, February Dairy Products report and export data impacted CME dairy markets in the Good Friday holiday-shortened week. The cheddar blocks fell to $1.8125 per pound April 5 (the lowest CME price since March 13), but they closed the next day at $1.83. This is down 2 cents on the week after plunging 25 cents the previous week, and were 49 cents below that week a year ago.

The barrels finished at $1.72, 8.75 cents lower, after dropping 15.5 cents the previous week (the lowest since March 8), 64.75 cents below a year ago,