OPINION

As every grain market participant knows, the double corn/soybean production record is a double-edged sword because the records will lead to larger, price-flattening carryovers. Again, per DTN: The huge crops mean “2023-24 ‘new crop’ ending stocks for corn (are) projected at 2.22 bb and soybeans pegged at 335 million bushels (mb).”

The projected corn crop, which USDA forecasts will top 2016’s record 15.1 bb, will slap the coming year’s average price down to $4.80 per bushel, a profit-clipping $1.80 below this year’s average price.

Likewise, this year’s likely record soybean crop means its projected average price will slide from $14.20 per bushel to $12.10, or $2.10 per bushel. While $1.80 per bushel lower for corn and $2.10 per bushel lower for beans sound modest, the declines — taken across the record production for both crops — mean a chunky, multibillion drop in gross U.S. corn income and a smaller but still substantial drop in gross U.S. soybean revenue.

And that’s if either or both projected record crops hit their forecasted tar-