Weather Forecasting

It’s a frequent preoccupation with good reason. Jay Thundercliffe finds out what gives the west coast weather its character – and makes it so compelling

Accurate or not, everyone has a notion of Scotland’s weather, and most will include rain or wind, maybe a bit of mist. They wouldn’t be too far wrong, but how right are they? Who knows? More importantly for getting around the region – who needs to know?

Let’s start with the positive: Scotland’s climate is not nearly as bad as it might be. The Gulf Stream helps keep the west coast winters relatively mild – relative, that is, to places such as Moscow and Labrador in Canada on a similar latitude (on the minus side we get cooler, wetter summers than them). It tends to be slightly warmer on the west side of Scotland thanks to a milder Atlantic climate versus the chilly North Sea on the east. The west is wetter, though, thanks to those Highland hills.

James Fletcher is UK Forecast Manager at StormGeo – a meteorological

service provider used by clients in industries such as the media and offshore and shipping companies including Caledonian MacBrayne. He explains more about the windy west coast: ‘Due to the west to east track of Atlantic low pressure systems, the prevailing winds tend to be moderate to fresh from the southwest, with mild conditions through much of the year. Gales can occur any time of year, but are most prevalent – and more intense – during October to March.’

Which way the wind is blowing will have a bearing on how the day goes, more than people often realise. ‘The mild climatic conditions of the west coast can be greatly influenced by the surrounding topography during periods of easterly winds, which are more frequent in spring and summer,’ explains Fletcher. ‘These can result in very settled weather with often the only clear skies in the UK.’

StormGeo has been providing forecasts for the CalMac ferries since 2020. ‘It’s a close working relationship – CalMac provides us with real-time weather observations for selected sites, which are then incorporated into our forecasting tools to help with fine tuning the forecasts,’ explains Fletcher.

Glaswegian comedian Billy Connolly once said: ‘There’s no such thing as bad weather . . . there’s only the wrong clothes.’ He was right – to an extent. The right clothes are fine if you’re going out for a walk, but if you’re navigating a vessel in the waters between Scotland’s islands, you’ll need more than the latest Gore-Tex jacket.

Byron Griffiths is a Master for CalMac, responsible for the MV Lord of the Isles – affectionately known as LOTI – navigating the route between mainland Mallaig and Lochboisdale on South Uist. ‘Changeable – and hard to predict,’ he says, in summing up the west coast weather. ‘The saying “If you don’t like the weather in the Hebrides, just wait ten minutes”, is not far from the truth.’

Masters in charge of safely navigating the fleet of CalMac ferries between the many islands utilise all the data at their disposal to ensure safe passage. ‘I always try to use as many sources as possible for the weather forecast,’ explains Griffiths. ‘As well as StormGeo – which has been very useful, with lots of wind and sea state data – I’ll check several other sources, such as the Met Office, shipping forecast and synoptic charts.’

It’s not all about the latest technology – though of course that’s an essential tool. Human knowledge and experience on the ground and on the bridge is essential for filling in the inevitable gaps in an area where topography can have such a bearing.

‘Through experience, passed on through the crews as well as the port staff, we learn to account for the localised topography,’ says Griffiths. ‘Forecasts are more reliable in open water but it can get less predictable in port. In Lochboisdale, due to the surrounding hills, we know from experience that a wind reported as 20 knots becomes 40 knots to our minds on the ground.’

Like many a Scot, Griffiths admits to thinking about the weather a lot. ‘I would say I’m a little obsessive about it,’ he says. ‘When onboard it’s the first thing you do in a morning, and even at home on leave I find myself checking forecasts regularly, especially a few days before being back on the ship. You start looking for patterns, and if it looks challenging, I’ll start having conversations with the Master before handover.’

Of course, all of this isn’t to put a dampener on proceedings. Everything about Scotland’s west – from its wildflowers to its whisky – is intrinsically tied to its climate. To wish for better is to wish for somewhere else. The west coast is a dynamic, dramatic, unpredictable place, full of surprises and excitement, spawning many a meteorlogical adventure. As Billy Connolly went on to say: ‘Buy a sexy raincoat – and live a little.’ n