Jan. 2018 NADPac report

NADPac Report

2

January 2018

in this issue: Washington Insider

3 PAC Stats 3

Advocacy in Action

4

PAC Contributors

4

PAC Committee

Political Action Committee

NADPac Report January 2018

Washington Insider Capital Updates with Lisa Layman

Although President Trump’s win in November 2016 came largely as a surprise, shortly after the election House Speaker Ryan proclaimed “Welcome to the dawn of a new unified Republican government.” Indeed, many in DC expected that with unified GOP control of the Executive and Legislative branches (and a Supreme Court vacancy to fill tilting the court further to the right), 2017 would see Republican policy achievements rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue to the President’s desk.

Republicans’ first priority for the year was fulfilling their seven year goal of repealing the Affordable Care Act or ACA (along with significant reductions in federal Medicaid funding). An overhaul of the tax code, infrastructure investments, and sealing the Mexico-U.S. border would quickly follow.

But, 2017 did not play out as predicted. Republican leaders struggled — and failed — to thread the needle in both chambers between their far-right and more moderate factions on health care, and ultimately relied upon the momentum of the tax bill to enact the only significant change to the ACA (reducing to zero the penalty for failure to comply with the individual mandate).

Infrastructure and border security received no meaningful attention, and a number of items from 2017 await consideration by the second session of the 115th Congress.

CONGRESSIONAL TO DO LIST So, from kick-off, the picture for early 2018 on the Hill is already not as predicted even a few months ago. January is typically a slow month for Congress, but consider the following “must-do’s” on their agenda: • • • • • • • •

funding the government and raising caps for domestic and defense spending (expires January 19), extending government surveillance authority under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA; expires January 19), reauthorizing the National Flood Insurance Program (expires January 19th), funding the Children’s Health Insurance Program (expires March 31st), extending expired Medicare provisions (expired December 31st), confirming a HHS Secretary (Alex Azar nomination hearing scheduled for January 9th), lifting the U.S. debt ceiling (by early April), and providing disaster relief.

Also anticipated for the docket: stabilizing the ACA health insurance markets (cost-sharing subsidies, additional Medicaid waiver flexibility, reinsurance, the health insurer tax and the medical device tax), addressing underfunded pension plans, and implementing sexual harassment procedures for Congress.

Republican policy priorities for the second year of Trump’s presidency have included overhauling the food stamps and other anti-poverty programs and entitlement (Medicare and Medicaid) reform, and some within the party continue to call for repeal of the ACA. However, ten months out from the “mid-term” 2018 congressional elections, those prospects are fading fast and more likely completely closed off.

Instead, simply extending critical programs and continuing basic governmental operations will be a heavy lift. Democrats may insist on acting on the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program (DACA, partly in operation until March 5) in exchange for not shutting down the government, and both parties would like to bring home infrastructure investments before the elections.

INFLUENCE OF 2018 CAMPAIGN POLITICS 2018’s legislative agenda will be driven by the upcoming November congressional elections and the GOP’s desire to maintain control, and Democrats’ will calculate carefully when it makes sense to play along given their goal of reclaiming one or both chambers. (The 2020 Presidential election is already influencing the 2018 elections and thus the 2018 agenda, but that is a topic for another time).

In the House, Republicans currently hold a 46 seat advantage; Democrats would need to pick up 24 seats to regain the majority. Although Democratic hopefuls point to the typical mid-term gains of the party opposite the President and the 63 seats Republicans picked up in the red wave that followed Obama’s election, it will be a stretch for Democrats to pick up the far-fewer needed seats to flip control this time around. Although the national political environment favors the Democrats, on a race-by-race basis, increasing polarization of the parties and the districts in play make large wave elections much harder to come by.

NADPac Report January 2018 Hillary Clinton carried 23 House districts represented by Republicans in the 2016 Presidential election. Democrats would have to pick up all of those, and a seat in a district won by Trump plus not lose a single one of the 12 seats they currently hold in districts that Trump won in order to flip the House. It’s doable, but everything plus some would have to go in their favor.

In the Senate, although the margin is much closer (Republicans hold 51 seats giving them just a 2 seat advantage), Democrats effectively have a whopping 26 members up for re-election while Republicans have just 8 up — with only the Arizona and Nevada seats in any real jeopardy. The morale boost of the surprise Democratic Doug Jones victory in Alabama has been enormous for Democrats, but the simple math needed for the party to take the Senate is formidable.

Democrats in both the House and Senate positioning themselves for the elections are facing the same dilemma the GOP has had crafting and advancing a policy agenda: do they tack left or right?

Some Democrats, particularly those in solidly blue states like Sen. Kristen Gillibrand, are staking out positions on the left on a range of issues. But more than a dozen of the Democrats facing re-election hail from solidly red or purple states. The campaigns in Minnesota could be particularly interesting to watch: Democrats unexpectedly have two seats to defend following Senator Franken’s resignation. Amy Klobuchar, a 2-term Senator, is taking a more moderate approach running for re-election in a traditionally blue state, but one that Hilary Clinton barely won. Senator Tina Smith, just seated by virtue of a Gubernatorial appointment to fill Franken’s vacated seat, will likely take the same approach. Both need to appeal to outstate Minnesota (the three Democratic districts Trump won with the largest margins are in MN; one district by more than 30 points), while holding on to the liberal base in the Twin Cities.

Both parties are frequently described as “fractured” (google searches for “fractured Republican party” and “fractured Democratic party” each produce hundreds of thousands of results). Which party fares better at unifying their members in Congress to advance their legislative agenda, while simultaneously allowing members in swing districts to speak to their constituencies, could determine whether either chamber flips in November.

There are also significant unknowns that could both change the course of the year’s agenda and upcoming elections, including: • • • •

will Democrats succeed in acting on DACA, or force a government shutdown? will far-right Republicans help their leadership show the party can govern? will there be additional #MeToo congressional resignations and special elections? what will happen with the Russia investigation?

If current trends continue, it’s likely the House and Senate will stay in Republican hands, but the margins will tighten, and the parties will become ever more polarized as they look to 2020.

With an eye to ongoing advocacy issues including taxes, taxation of benefits, insurance reforms, Exchanges, Medicaid, and CHIP, it will be critical for NADP to continue to actively engage with Members of Congress. NADPac can be a powerful tool; industry sponsored events offer valuable opportunities for focused, thorough and thoughtful discussion of the issues impacting NADP members.

Lisa Layman of Hooper, Lundy & Bookman represents NADP on Capitol Hill and has over twenty-five years of experience in political and legislative affairs, and a comprehensive knowledge of health policy issues. As a senior policy advisor to several US Senators, Lisa has been involved in drafting, analyzing and negotiating legislation involving private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, prescription drugs, managed care, and health information technology.

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PAC STATS

Year 2017 NADPac Figures: Beginning cash balance 1/1/17: $25,280.13 Closing cash balance 12/31/17: $25,196.77 Contributions from individuals: $4,916.64 Contributions from PACs: $12,000 Disbursements to federal candidates: $17,000 Year 2016 NADPac Figures: Beginning cash balance 1/1/16: $21,530.13 Closing cash balance 12/31/16: $25,280.13 Contributions from individuals: $1,750 Contributions from PACs: $9,500 Disbursements to federal candidates: $7,500

NADPac Contributors The following individuals and corporate PACs have contributed funds to support NADPac efforts in 2017 and an April fundraising event held for Senator Roberts (KS). NADPac appreciates the support of these contributors: • • • • • • • • • • •

ACLI PAC Aetna PAC Stacia Almquist, Sun Life Financial Tony Cook, Dental Care Plus Group DDPA PAC Bernard Glossy, TruAssure Rob Goren, Delta Dental of MO Guardian PAC Suzanne Heckenlaible, Delta Dental of IA Highmark PAC Evelyn Ireland, NADP

• • • • • • • • • • •

Rick Lantz, Delta Dental of MI, IN and OH Joe Lentine, DENCAP Dental Plans Theresa McConeghey, Principal Kate McCown, Ameritas MetLife PAC Joshua Nace, Dental Health Services Gary Pickard, Pacific Dental Services Principal PAC James Slotnick, Sun Life Financial UNUM PAC Sue Wright, Lincoln Financial

NADPac Comittee Contributions to federal candidates are overseen by the NADPac Committee, which meets several times a year.

The Committee is appointed by the NADP Board to be representative of NADP membership.

Suzanne Heckenlaible Delta Dental of IA

Jonathan Renfrew Guardian Life Insurance Company

Evelyn Ireland, CAE NADP Executive Director and NADPac Treasurer eireland@nadp.org

James Slotnick Sun Life Financial

Richard Jones Guardian Life Insurance Company

Irica Solomon MetLife

NADP Staff Liaisons:

Bernard LaPine United Concordia

Eme Augustini Director of Government Relations, NADP eaugustini@nadp.org

Michael Lewan The Michael Lewan Company

Advisor:

Marty McGuinness UNUM

Lisa Layman Principal, Government Relations and Public Policy Hooper, Lundy & Bookman

Chris Payne Principal Financial Group

D

For more information, please contact Evelyn F. Ireland, CAE • eireland@nadp.org Executive Director & NADPac Treasurer National Association of Dental Plans P 972-458-6998 x101 12700 Park Central Dr, Ste 400 Dallas, TX 75251-1529