Sept 2018 NADPac report

NADPac Report

September 2018

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in this issue: Washington Insider

3 Advocacy in Action 4

PAC Contributors

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PAC Committee

Political Action Committee

NADPac Report September 2018

Washington Insider Capital Updates with Lisa Layman

With fewer than forty-five days until the November 2018 “midterm” elections, the question that trumps all others in Washington is whether Democrats will pick up the necessary 23 seats to take control of the House of Representatives.

“Mid-term elections”

(the elections at the midpoint of a President’s term) are typically seen as a referendum on the President.

This year is shaping up to take that principle to a new record: a recent Pew survey shows more voters will cast their votes based on their approval/disapproval of the President than in any midterm in more than three decades.

As of September 20, poll averages and historical trends give Democrats about an 80% chance of winning the House. Democrats are helped by the typical loss of seats by the President’s party in mid-term elections, President Trump’s historically overall low approval, an unusually high number of Republican retirements, and a large number of seats – 25 – being defended by Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

Of the approximately four dozen or so highly competitive seats, Democrats have a fairly easy path to flipping 10 of the needed 23. Another 10 lean heavily toward the Democrats but the final three will be very challenging.

And, we only have to look as far back as the last Presidential election to underscore that an 80% chance for House Democrats does not mean a foregone conclusion: Hillary Clinton was given the same odds – roughly 80% – about 10 days before the 2016 Presidential election; Donald Trump was given less than a 20% chance of serving as the 45th President.

Currently there is a 0.1% chance partisan makeup in the House essentially stays the same, with Democrats or Republicans picking up one seat. That’s the same percentage chance that Hurricane/Tropical storm Florence had of producing the rainstorm it did over a large area of North and South Carolina.

Low probability events happen all the time, and there are compelling reasons to believe a “blue wave” won’t materialize. The economy is good, Democrats are playing defense in some unexpected races (including Democratic-leaning Miami-Dade County, expected to be an easy pickup seat) and the “referendum on Trump” plays both ways. Trump voters are extremely loyal and support remains very high for the President among Republicans (according to Gallup, 88% approval among Republicans last week). Pro-Trump voters, as well as the anti-Trump voters, are highly motivated to vote in November.

Current Control of Senate seats up in 2018 ME

WA VT

MT

OR

ND

ID

CA

CO

AZ

IA

NE

UT

OK

NM

TX

MI

IL

PA OH

IN

WV

MO

KS

AK

NY

WI

SD

WY NV

MN*

KY

NC

TN AR

MS*

AL

VA

SC

NH

MA CT

RI

NJ DE MD

Democrat Republican

GA

Independent

LA FL

Not electing this year

HI

* Minnesota and Mississippi also hold special elections on November 6. In these states, two seats are in play.

NADPac Report September 2018 Democrats may very well remain in the minority in the House when the new Congressional session begins in January 2019.

The silver lining for the Democrats if they don’t win the House could be: the Democrats don’t win the House! If the Democrats do take control of the House, they will be operating for the next two years with the mantle of leadership – a losing proposition with legislative victories elusive with Trump in the White House (and a likely more-liberal caucus and Republican Senate). President Trump will spend the next two years blaming the Democrats for Congressional gridlock and attacking everyone in the party by tying them to “High Crime High Tax Nancy Pelosi!”

If Republicans retain control of the House but Democrats improve their margin as almost assured, Democrats can play the spoiler – a much easier role. The best case scenario for Democrats with an eye to winning the presidency in 2020 may be the 10% chance they have of falling 1-15 seats short in the House.

Control of the Senate may not be known for weeks following the November 6 election. Nine seats are currently viewed as toss-ups; close votes could trigger re-counts, absentee votes could delay results, and the Mississippi Senate race is likely to move to a November 27 runoff.

The Senate is much more likely to remain in Republican hands. Republicans currently hold 51 seats to the 49 held by Democrats. But while the current margin is close, the playing field is not: Democrats are defending 26 seats, with ten of those in states carried by Trump. Everything would have to break for the Democrats for them to pick up the two seats needed to gain control. In fact, the odds are greater that Republicans will gain seats in the Senate than that power shifts to the Democrats (40% vs 30% respectively).

What would a change in Congress mean for NADP? With the White House remaining in Republican hands for at least another two years, dramatic changes in the law are unlikely if the House flips to the Democrats. Most notably in the health care realm, the Affordable Care Act would be on safer ground.

Both chambers flipping to the Democrats – and this is a very unlikely scenario – would produce the most uncertain scenario for legislation affecting the dental industry. The margins in the House and Senate will again matter, but we haven’t seen how President Trump might choose to negotiate with Democrats. A Trump-Schumer-Pelosi market stabilization package could happen. (But a single-payer system/”Medicare-forAll” will not become the law of the land anytime soon, even if the “blue wave” occurs).

The biggest potential change in health care law could come if the Republicans retain the control they have today, but pick up seats in the Senate. Repeal of the ACA was defeated by the very narrowest of margins. If Republicans pick up even one seat in the Senate and the House remains in Republican hands, another effort to repeal or ‘repeal and replace’ the ACA, and to block grant Medicaid, is very possible and almost inevitable. As noted by Erik Patashnik and Jonathan Oberlander in a June Washington Post story, in nearly every recent election, majority control has been up for grabs. They note “That competitiveness encourages the parties to heighten their messaging and discourages conservatives from giving up on ACA repeal. The war over the ACA is likely to continue until one side or the other wins a decisive electoral victory. That doesn’t seem to be on the horizon.”

NADP continues to actively engage with key Congressional offices on industry priorities. NADPac can be a powerful tool; industry-sponsored events provide opportunities for focused, thorough, and thoughtful discussions.

Lisa Layman of Hooper, Lundy & Bookman represents NADP on Capitol Hill and has more than two decades of experience in political and legislative affairs, and a comprehensive knowledge of health policy issues. As a senior policy advisor to several US Senators, Lisa has been involved in drafting, analyzing and negotiating legislation involving private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, prescription drugs, managed care, and health information technology.

PAC STATS

Year 2018 NADPac Figures: Beginning cash balance 1/1/18: $25,196.77 Closing cash balance 8/31/18: $27,196.77 Contributions from individuals: $4,000 Contributions from PACs: $17,500 Disbursements to federal candidates: $19,500 Year 2017 NADPac Figures: Beginning cash balance 1/1/17: $25,280.13 Closing cash balance 12/31/17: $25,196.77 Contributions from individuals: $4,916.64 Contributions from PACs: $12,000 Disbursements to federal candidates: $17,000

NADPac Contributors The following individuals and corporate PACs have contributed funds to support NADPac efforts in 2018 and fundraising events in May for Senators Debbie Stabenow (MI) and Tina Smith (MN). NADPac appreciates the support of these contributors: • • • • • • • • • • • •

ACLI PAC Aetna PAC Stacia Almquist, Sun Life Financial Marty Corry, Hooper, Lundy & Bookman Cigna PAC DDPA PAC Forrest Flint, Delta Dental of MN Rob Goren, Delta Dental of MO Guardian PAC Suzanne Heckenlaible, Delta Dental of IA Highmark PAC Evelyn Ireland, NADP

• • • • • • • • • • • •

Rick Lantz, Delta Dental of MI, IN and OH Lisa Layman, Hooper, Lundy & Bookman Joe Lentine, DENCAP Dental Plans Michael Lewan Theresa McConeghey, Principal Kate McCown, Ameritas MetLife PAC Principal PAC Renaissance PAC James Slotnick, Sun Life Financial UNUM PAC Sue Wright, Lincoln Financial

NADPac Comittee Contributions to federal candidates are overseen by the NADPac Committee, which meets several times a year. The Committee is appointed by the NADP Board to be representative of NADP membership.

Suzanne Heckenlaible Delta Dental of IA

Jonathan Renfrew Guardian Life Insurance Company

Evelyn Ireland, CAE NADP Executive Director and NADPac Treasurer eireland@nadp.org

James Slotnick Sun Life Financial

Richard Jones Guardian Life Insurance Company

Irica Solomon MetLife NADP Staff Liaisons:

Bernard LaPine United Concordia

Eme Augustini Director of Government Relations, NADP eaugustini@nadp.org

Michael Lewan The Michael Lewan Company

Advisor:

Marty McGuinness UNUM

Lisa Layman Principal, Government Relations and Public Policy Hooper, Lundy & Bookman

Chris Payne Principal Financial Group

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For more information, please contact Evelyn F. Ireland, CAE • eireland@nadp.org Executive Director & NADPac Treasurer National Association of Dental Plans P 972-458-6998 x101 12700 Park Central Dr, Ste 400 Dallas, TX 75251-1529