NADPac Report

NADPac Report June 2016

In this issue: Washington Insider

2016 Senate Race Ratings NADPac Hosts Event for Senator Stabenow NADPac Contributors & Committee

Political Action Committee

NADPac Report June 2016

Washington Insider Capital Updates with Lisa Layman

With fewer than four weeks until the Republicans kick-off their Presidential nominating convention in Cleveland and fewer than five until the Democrats hold theirs in Philadelphia, the parties share two things in common: a decisive delegate count for their presumptive nominee and a lack of party unity.

Senate Election 2016

Hillary Clinton has the strong support of the Democratic party “elite” – 92% of the superdelegates who have made their preference public. “Superdelegates” are party leaders and elected officials; Clinton’s supporters include President Obama, Vice President Biden, and every Democratic Governor with the exception of Hawaii Governor Ige who has not yet declared his preference.

However, Bernie Sanders has not officially conceded the race nor endorsed Clinton; in fact, his campaign manager said last week that Sanders “is an active candidate for President.” Additionally, according to the latest Gallup poll, Clinton’s net favorability among Democrats has remained well below 50%.

Trump’s net favorability among Republicans is even lower and in recent days Republican elected leaders, high-ranking officials, and opinion leaders have moved away from Trump, by rescinding their previous support (IL Senator Mark Kirk), stating they will abstain from the race (Pres. George W. Bush and Pres. George H.W. Bush, former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, MI Governor Rick Snyder), indicating they will not vote for Trump (GOP 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, former rival Jeb Bush, SC Senator Lindsey Graham, NE Senator Ben Sasse, MA Governor Charlie Baker, MD Governor Larry Hogan, deputy editor of the Wall Street Journal Bret Stephens, and Republican pundits George Will, Glen Beck and Michael Reagan (son of Pres. Reagan)) or actually endorsing Hillary Clinton (Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state for Pres. George W. Bush and deputy secretary of defense for Pres. Reagan; former GOP Senator from South Dakota Larry Pressler, Republican pundit Robert Kagan and Mark Salter, former strategist for John McCain). “Republicans for Hillary” is an actual thing, complete with a PAC and Facebook page.

Some Republicans hold out hope that even now, with 125% of the delegates needed and 13 million primary votes (nearly 20% more primary votes than Romney received in 2012), Trump will not be the Grand Old Party’s nominee in November. They talk about replicating the Whigs’ strategy in 1836 by running three candidates in the general election, they talk about changing the Republican National Committee rules to contest the convention, they talk about a delegate “sick out.”

2

34

30 24

10

There are 34 seats up in 2016, of which 24 are held by Republicans. Democrats will need to gain 4 or 5 seats to claim a majority.

Assuming Trump is the party’s nominee in November, it is likely that a significant percentage of the eventual President Trump or President Clinton’s voters were voting against the opponent, rather than for the victor.

What of the likely vice-presidential nominee? Typically, running mates are announced by the Presidential nominees in the days or weeks leading up to the nominating conventions, though Trump’s son recently said the presumptive nominee will wait to announce his pick at the convention.

Trump has said he would like a running mate with “legislative experience,” suggesting a current or former Member of Congress. It remains to be seen whether Trump will base his selection on a desire to reach out to the rattled establishment.

Speculation on a running mate for Hillary Clinton has centered on candidates who could make inroads with Sanders’ supporters, and/or candidates who could help her in so-called “purple states.” Senators Elizabeth Warren (MA) and Cory Booker (NJ) are rumored to be on Clinton’s short list and fit the first category, and Sherrod Brown (OH), also apparently on her short-list, fits both categories. However, these three sitting Senators hail from states with Republican governors who would undoubtedly name a Republican to fill the vacant seat and therefore decrease the chances that Democrats would take back the Senate in November.

Democrats need to pick up 4 seats to regain control of the Senate if Hillary Clinton is President and 5 seats if Donald Trump is President. The map favors the Democrats; they have only 10 Senate seats up for re-election while the Republicans are protecting 24 seats. The Cook Political Report recently ranked 8 of the Democrats’ 10 Senate races as “solid”, or not likely to become closely contested, with only 1 seat as “leans D” (Bennet – CO) and 1 seat as “toss up” (Reid – NV; Reid has announced his retirement so this is an open seat). Cook ranks 6 Republican seats as “toss up” (FL, IL, NH, OH, PA, WI) and an additional Republican seat as “leans R” (NC). Other pollsters suggest MO and AZ are in the “leans R” category.

The Trump effect on these races is unclear at this point. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Trump’s high unfavorables will have a “down ballot” effect and vulnerable Republican Senators are more likely to be swept out of office in a Democratic wave. However, nervous Clinton supporters point to top GOP donors redirecting funds from the Presidential race and choosing instead to use their funds to preserve the Senate Republican majority.

The House is likely to remain in Republican hands though Democrats are expected to pick up seats and the most optimistic Dems believe Trump’s unpopularity among typical Democratic constituencies (a recent ABC poll indicated 94% of blacks view Trump unfavorably as do 89% of Hispanics) could lead to a Clinton landslide and a Democratic House to go along with it.

NADPac Report June 2016 While we wait to see what happens in November, NADP continues to actively engage with key Congressional offices in anticipation of the right set of circumstances to enact changes to the Affordable Care Act beneficial to the industry. NADPac can be a powerful tool; industry-sponsored events offer valuable opportunities for focused, thorough, and thoughtful discussion of the issues impacting NADP members.

Lisa Layman of Brown Rudnick represents NADP on Capitol Hill and has over two decades of experience in political and legislative affairs, and a comprehensive knowledge of health policy issues. As a senior policy advisor to several U.S. Senators, Lisa has been involved in drafting, analyzing and negotiating legislation involving private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, prescription drugs, managed care and health information technology.

2016 Senate Race Ratings

Blumenthal (CT)

FL (Rubio)

Schatz (HI)

Kirk (IL)

MD (Mikulski)

Ayotte (NH)

Schumer (NY)

Portman (OH)

Wyden (OR)

Toomey (PA)

SOLID (D)

Boozman (AR) Crapo (ID)

1

CA (Boxer)

Murray (WA)

Shelby (AL)

6

8

Leahy (VT)

11

1

Johnson (WI)

0

Bennet (CO)

Reid (NV)

LIKELY (D)

LEAN (D)

TOSS UP

6 Murkowski (AK) McCain (AZ) Isakson (GA)

1 Burr (NC)

LEAN (R)

IN (Coats) Grassley (IA) Blunt (MO)

LIKELY (R)

Moran (KS) Paul (KY) LA (Vitter) Hoeven (ND) Lankford (OK) Scott (SC) Thune (SD) Lee (UT)

SOLID (R)

In this chart, we have compiled The Cook Political Report tracking of vulnerability (the chances of the seat switching parties) of the Senate races up this cycle. See more online at https://biturl.im/bU3WX. SOLID: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.

LIKELY: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.

LEAN: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.

TOSS UP: These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning.

Note: Senators with names in parentheses are retiring.

NADPac Hosts Event for Senator Stabenow

During NADP’s Advocacy in Action fly-in on May 12, NADPac hosted a fundraising luncheon for Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. Co-hosts for the event were the PACs of Assurant, Guardian and MetLife.

The event was an intimate lunch of 16 individuals representing seven members with NADP and DDPA staff joining the Senator and her Chief of Staff. We were able to discuss issues related to dental within the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in detail, including her efforts to fix the tax subsidies calculation and industry support for the Aligning Children’s Dental Coverage bill.

Additional PAC contributions came from CIGNA, Highmark, Principal, and DDPA. Personal contributions included Evelyn Ireland (NADP), Kris Hathaway (NADP), Lisa Layman (Brown Rudnick), Michael Lewan (Lewan Company), Dr. Gene Sherman (Starmount Life), Kate McCown (Ameritas), Tony Cook (Dental Care Plus), Frank Kolb (DDPA) and Joe Lentine (DenCap) and Jon Seltenheim (United Concordia).

NADPac Contributors The following individuals and corporate PACs have contributed funds to support NADPac efforts in 2016 and a May fundraising event held for Senator Stabenow (MI). NADPac appreciates the support of these contributors.

Assurant PAC Cigna PAC Tony Cook, Dental Care Plus Group DDPA PAC Guardian PAC Kris Hathaway, NADP Highmark PAC Evelyn Ireland, NADP

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Frank Kolb, DDPA Lisa Layman, Brown Rudnick Joe Lentine, DENCAP Dental Plans Michael Lewan, The Michael Lewan Company Kate McCown, Ameritas MetLife PAC Principal PAC Dr. Gene Sherman, Starmount

NADPac Comittee Contributions to federal candidates are overseen by the NADPac Committee, which meets several times a year. The Committee is appointed by the NADP Board to be representative of NADP membership.

Suzanne Heckenlaible VP of Public Affairs Delta Dental of IA

Jonathan Renfrew Vice President, Federal Affairs Guardian Life Insurance Company

Evelyn Ireland, CAE NADP Executive Director and NADPac Treasurer eireland@nadp.org

Jon Seltenheim Sr. VP of Business and Government Strategy United Concordia Companies, Inc.

Michael Lewan The Michael Lewan Company

Irica Solomon Government Relations, Public Affairs, Compliance MetLife

James Mullen Public and Government Affairs Manager Delta Dental of CA, NY, PA & Affiliates

NADP Staff Liaisons:

Chris Payne VP of Federal Government Relations Principal Financial Group

Kris Hathaway Government Relations Director, NADP khathaway@nadp.org Eme Augustini Associate Director of Government Relations, NADP eaugustini@nadp.org

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For more information, please contact

Evelyn F. Ireland, CAE • eireland@nadp.org Executive Director & NADPac Treasurer National Association of Dental Plans P 972-458-6998 x101 12700 Park Central Dr, Ste 400 Dallas, TX 75251-1529