March 2016 NADPac Report

NADPac Report March 2016

In this issue: Washington Insider

Primaries Infographic NADPac Contributors & Committee

Political Action Committee

Washington Post

NADPac Report March 2016

Washington Insider Capital Updates with Lisa Layman

The conventional wisdom, not that long ago in real time but eons ago in political time, predicted a Bush v. Clinton contest for November 2016. As we now know, the conventional wisdom isn’t a good bet this political season.

Hillary Clinton, with 68 percent of the Democratic delegates awarded to date (March 9) and massive wins among African American and Latino voters, is still the presumptive Democratic nominee. However, because the Democrats award all delegates proportionally (there are no winner-takes-all-states), some analysts hedge that it may be a while before the former Secretary of State/Senator/First Lady has officially won the nominating contest.

However, despite Sanders besting Clinton in an enormous upset in Michigan on March 8, she nonetheless was awarded more delegates overall with her decisive victory in Mississippi on the same date and thus now holds more than half of the delegates needed to win the nomination.

Still, Bernie Sanders has made the contest more interesting than anticipated and has vowed to stay in the campaign until the July Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. His strength among millennials in particular has given the Democratic establishment pause, and raises questions about whether his young supporters would turn out to vote for Clinton in the general election in November.

Despite the Democratic youth vote going overwhelmingly for a 74-year-old self-identified Socialist, the obviously more interesting story is on the Republican side of the equation.

Thousands of words have been written in attempts to explain Donald Trump’s ascendency. Looking at the ‘what’ if not the ‘why,’ we see Trump continuing to lead the Republican field (with 37 percent of delegates needed for the nomination as of 3/9/16 compared to 29 percent for Senator Ted Cruz (TX), 12 percent for Senator Marco Rubio (FL) and 4 percent for Governor John Kasich (OH)).

More than 220 delegates are possible in winner-take-all states (FL, OH, AZ) in the coming two weeks and Trump is currently polling at the lead in each of these states — despite including Rubio’s and Kasich’s home states. Should Trump capture these three states, he will surely have more than half of the delegates needed to win the nomination. (Note, however, that the polls erroneously gave Clinton a commanding lead over Sanders in Michigan.)

Additionally, Florida holds a “closed” primary (only registered Republicans may vote in the primary) as do 19 other states or territories until the primary season wraps up on June 7. To date, more than twice as many of the delegates awarded have been in states holding open (anyone can vote regardless of party affiliation) or mixed (independents can vote in either party’s primary) primaries/caucuses, and this is where Trump has soared, capturing nearly half of the possible delegates. Moving forward, significantly more delegates will be awarded in closed primaries which could slow Trump’s momentum: he has earned about one-third of the delegates awarded in closed primaries.

Whether he is doing better in open/mixed primaries because he is pulling votes from disaffected blue-collar otherwise Democratic voters, or because Democrats are voting for him to increase the chance that he will be the easier-to-defeat-opponent to Hillary Clinton isn’t clear.

Either way, as his victories have continued to mount, crossing unexpected geographic and religious lines, the Republican ‘establishment’ struggles between a strategy of consolidation (narrow the field to Trump and a single additional candidate representing the anti-Trump vote) and one of fragmentation (keep all of the candidates in the race) in an effort to deny Trump the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination before the convention starts in Cleveland in July. The one thing clear in this race is that the Washington DC-based GOP is in near unanimity in their desire to deny Trump the nomination either outright or through a contested convention. Unfortunately, they don’t like second place Senator Cruz any better.

For this reason, a contested convention, which could give the nomination to Rubio, Kasich, or candidate X, is the least bad scenario for many Republican elites.

the dental benefits industry’s advocacy fly-in

May 11-12, 2016 Washington • DC

For more information, please contact Eme Augustini at eaugustini@nadp.org 972-458-6998 x 112

NADPac Report March 2016 What would a President Trump, President Cruz, or President Clinton mean for health care and the Affordable Care Act? Certainly the best chance for technical changes or improvements to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) come under a President Clinton and Democratic Senate. While far from a sure thing, if Clinton wins the White House, there is a good chance the Senate flips to Democratic control. Democrats would seek to build upon the ACA with a focus on the availability and affordability of plans on the Exchanges, and to address long-term sustainability of the program.

Under a President Trump or President Cruz (or the seemingly unlikely President Rubio or Kasich), there is a good chance the Senate remains in Republican hands. With the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives controlled by the GOP, they would be under enormous pressure to follow through on campaign promises and repeal the ACA with all due haste. A detailed “replace” plan has yet to be seen but the Republican candidates appear to generally agree on allowing the sale of insurance across state lines and individual deductibility of premiums, and expanding health savings accounts.

While we wait to see what happens in November, NADP continues to actively engage with key Congressional offices in anticipation of the right set of circumstances to enact changes to the Affordable Care Act beneficial to the industry. NADPac can be a powerful tool; industrysponsored events offer valuable opportunities for focused, thorough, and thoughtful discussion of the issues impacting NADP members.

Lisa Layman of Brown Rudnick represents NADP on Capitol Hill and has over two decades of experience in political and legislative affairs, and a comprehensive knowledge of health policy issues. As a senior policy advisor to several U.S. Senators, Lisa has been involved in drafting, analyzing and negotiating legislation involving private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, prescription drugs, managed care and health information technology.

2016 Presidential Election:

How do your beliefs align with potential candidates?

Take the quiz at

isidewith.com

P.S. The best use of 20 minutes in this campaign season is taking the excellent and thorough quiz at www.isidewith.com to see if the candidate you support or are considering best matches your views…or if it might be worth taking another look at a different candidate (The site is not affiliated with any political campaign or interest group). Tips: 1) be sure to notice the “show more questions” link under the economic, foreign policy and domestic issues sections, 2) click the question mark icon or the “for more information” link to the right of each topic if you need a very short primer on bitcoin or any other topic 3) select an option under “choose another stance” whenever possible rather than simply “yes” or “no” and 4) weigh the importance of each issue for you by clicking the “importance” bar. The results might surprise you. I certainly learned a lot, and was surprised to find I agree on at least something with each of the candidates. (Note: a flaw with the quiz is the surprisingly small number of healthcare questions and the lack of any questions at all about Equitable Treatment).

NADPac Contributors

The following individuals and corporate PACs contributed funds to support NADPac efforts in 2015-16 and are contributing to an upcoming fundraiser for Senator Stabenow (MI) on May 12. NADPac appreciates the support of these contributors:

• • • • • • • • • • • • •

Jeff Album, Delta Dental of CA, NY, PA & Affiliates Stacia Almquist, Assurant Employee Benefits Assurant PAC Charles Brody, Blue Cross Blue Shield of South Carolina Tony Cook, Dental Care Plus Group Rob Goren, Delta Dental of Missouri Cigna PAC Delta Dental Plans Association Guardian PAC Kris Hathaway, NADP Suzanne Heckenlaible, Delta Dental of Iowa Bruce Hentschel, Principal Financial Group Evelyn Ireland, NADP

• • • • • • • • • • • •

Joseph Lentine, DENCAP Michael Lewan, The Michael Lewan Co. Theresa McConeghey, Principal Financial Group Kate McCown, Ameritas MetLife PAC Jim Mullen, Delta Dental of CA, NY, PA & Affiliates Principal PAC Jon Seltenheim, United Concordia Companies, Inc Dr. Gene Sherman, Starmount Life Insurance Company Chris Swanker, Guardian Life Insurance Company UCCI PAC Sue Wright, Lincoln Financial Group

The race to the presidential nomination

Updated: March 21, 2016

1,237 to win nomination

2,383 to win nomination

To see the entire Washington Post ingrographic, please visit: washingtonpost.com/graphics/ politics/2016-election/primaries/delegatetracker/democratic/

NADPac Comittee Contributions to federal candidates are overseen by the NADPac Committee, which meets several times a year. The Committee is appointed by the NADP Board to be representative of NADP membership.

Suzanne Heckenlaible VP of Public Affairs Delta Dental of IA

Jonathan Renfrew Vice President, Federal Affairs Guardian Life Insurance Company

Evelyn Ireland, CAE NADP Executive Director and NADPac Treasurer eireland@nadp.org

Jon Seltenheim Sr. VP of Business and Government Strategy United Concordia Companies, Inc.

Michael Lewan The Michael Lewan Company

Irica Solomon Government Relations, Public Affairs, Compliance MetLife

James Mullen Public and Government Affairs Manager Delta Dental of CA, NY, PA & Affiliates

NADP Staff Liaisons:

Chris Payne VP of Federal Government Relations Principal Financial Group

Kris Hathaway Government Relations Director, NADP khathaway@nadp.org

For more information, please contact

D

Evelyn F. Ireland, CAE • eireland@nadp.org Executive Director & NADPac Treasurer National Association of Dental Plans P 972-458-6998 x101 12700 Park Central Dr, Ste 400 Dallas, TX 75251-1529

Eme Augustini Associate Director of Government Relations, NADP eaugustini@nadp.org Advisor: Lisa Layman Principal, Government and Law Strategies Brown Rudnick