Niseko, Japan Tourism and Property Market Review December 2019
Increased direct international flights are fueling Niseko’s tourism and real estate market growth Availability of property financing spurs demand from foreign buyers “In the past five years, international passenger arrivals at New Chitose Airport achieved a CAGR growth rate of 24%. Rising airlift has also positively impacted the alpine tourism market of Niseko with a CAGR 12% surge in demand. Three factors have contributed to Niseko’s positive tourism growth (i) Japan’s international tourism promotion campaign, (ii) the ease of visa restrictions and (iii) increasing direct international flights to the gateway airport. The Niseko property market is currently being fueled by a new wave of investment-oriented purchasers of condominiums units, focused on rental management schemes and expectations of high recurring yields. Another emerging trend is in house lots, where projects are located in areas expecting strong price appreciation. The limited availability of land with ski-in-ski-out facilities, Mount Yotei views, and prime Hirafu locations is pushing developers into new locations and creating more diversity in the marketplace.
Trends
International Arrivals to Sapporo and Niseko %
No. of Visitors (Millions) 5
40
4
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
-10 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019*
International Passenger Arrivals to New Chitose Airport International Visitor Arrivals to Niseko Growth Rate - New Chitose Airport Growth Rate - Niseko
Source: Niseko Town Office and C9 Hotelworks Market Research; *2019 Projected
Due to premium seasonal rentals and overall demand outpacing supply, the value of prime properties in the secondary market has appreciated on average 40% 70% over launch prices. Hence, the rental-managed real estate market in Niseko has experienced remarkable growth; though concerns are mounting over speculation concerns. ” Bill Barnett, Managing Director, C9 Hotelworks
Forward Outlook
•
Properties with furniture packages or furnished offerings are popular with real estate buyers who look for turnkey transactions.
•
New international terminal expansion at New Chitose Airport will open in Q2 2020. It’s facilities include a new terminal and hotel.
•
New Chitose Airport, the nation’s fifth-busiest, now serves 24 direct international flights from 11 countries and 36 airlines.
•
Hokkaido Shinkansen’s further extension via Kutchan is targeted for completion in 2030. It will connect Niseko with Sapporo in 30 minutes.
•
Hotel performance in the summer season has improved as the destination has evolved into a year-round resort area and promoted widely in the travel trade.
•
Plans to privatize New Chitose Airport operations by utilizing private-sector expertise is expected to push more commercial traffic that will benefit the tourism sector.
PROPERTY MARKET Real Estate Development by Type
Real Estate Development by Area Hirafu 25%
29%
25%
Outer Hirafu/ Niseko Village
Condominiums
Hanazono
Houses/Land Plots
2% Annupuri 16%
75%
Nearby alpine resort areas
28%
Source: C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Pricing Strata and Sales Volume Value in Millions (USD)
Condominiums/ Houses
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
400
Average market selling price between USD1,00,000 to 1,500,000 has strongest demand
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 <USD500,000 USD500,001- USD1,000,001- USD1,500,001- >USD2,000,001 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 Sales Volume
Condominiums/Houses Source: C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Condominium Sales Price & Sales Pace
Sales per Month Value in Millions (USD)
Value in Millions (USD)
10 3.50 3.00 8 2.50 6 2.00 4 1.50 1.00 2 0.50 0 0.00
14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Studio/ Suite
2
House/Land Plot Sales Price & Sales Pace
1BR
2BR
3BR
Penthouse
Sales per Month 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
2BR
3BR
4BR
5BR& 6BR
Land Plots
Average Absolute Sales Price
Average Absolute Sales Price
Average Monthly Sales Pace
Average Monthly Sales Pace
C9 Niseko Tourism and Property Market Review: Dec 2019
Source: C9 Hotelworks Market Research
PROPERTY MARKET
7%
6% 10%
< 50 sqm.
22%
51 - 100 sqm.
31%
< 100 sqm.
9%
301 - 500 sqm.
12%
45%
12%
> 201 sqm.
< 500 sqm.
16%
101 - 300 sqm.
101 - 150 sqm. 151 - 200 sqm.
46%
Land Plots Average Area
Houses Average Built-up Area
Condominiums Average Built-up Area
44% 23%
501 - 700 sqm. > 701 sqm.
17%
501 - 800 sqm. 801 - 1,100 sqm. > 1,100 sqm.
Source: C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Hotel and Property Development Pipeline Development Name
Location
Keys
Type
Opening Date
Haku Villas
Upper Hirafu
4
Condominium
Dec 2019
YU Kiroro
Kiroro
108
Condominium
Dec 2019
Panorama Niseko
Outer Hirafu
12
House/Land Plots
Dec 2019
Tellus Niseko
Middle Hirafu
9
Condominium
Dec 2019
Park Hyatt Hotel and Residences
Hanazono
214
Hotel and Residences
Jan 2020
Koa Niseko
Higashiyama
20
House/Land Plots
Jan 2020
Ritz-Carlton Reserve
Niseko Village
50
Hotel and Residences
Sept 2020
Intuition Niseko - Phase 2
Outer Hirafu
32
Condominium
Nov 2020
14432120
Lower Hirafu
12
Condominium
Dec 2020
The Vale Rusutsu
Rusutsu
148
Condominium
Dec 2020
DRIFT Niseko
Outer Hirafu
14
House/Land Plots
Dec 2020
Kabayama Niseko
Kabayama
4
House/Land Plots
2020
Sansui Niseko
Upper Hirafu
60
Hotel
2020
Hanaridge
Hanazono
12
House/Land Plots
2020
Tellus Villas
Outer Hirafu
17
House/Land Plots
Dec 2021
Setsu Niseko
Middle Hirafu
190
Condominium
Dec 2021
Odin Hills
Hanazono
34
House/Land Plots
2021
The Pavilions Niseko Resort
Outer Hirafu
49
Hotel and Residences
2021
Aman Niseko
Moiwa
31
Hotel and Residences
2023
Aruku-zaka
Middle Hirafu
168
Condominium
2024
Amari Niseko
Middle Hirafu
126
Hotel
2024
Aruku-zaka
Middle Hirafu
60
Retail
2024
Aura Niseko
Higashiyama
51
Condominium
TBA
Kashi Niseko
Middle Hirafu
46
Condominium
TBA
Zia
Outer Hirafu
N/A
Condominium
TBA
Tellus Hirafu
Outer Hirafu
N/A
Hotel and Residences
TBA
Kasara Phase II
Niseko Village
N/A
Residences
TBA
Source: C9 Hotelworks Market Research
C9 Niseko Tourism and Property Market Review: Dec 2019
3
TOURISM OVERVIEW Seasonality 2019 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Foreign vs. Domestic Visitors Niseko Visitor Arrivals
Peak visitor arrivals for winter are December to March and in summer, July and August
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Foreign
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov* Dec*
Domestic
Source: Niseko Town Office and C9 Hotelworks Market Research *Projected
Overnight Visitors vs. Day Trips No. of Visitors 2,000,000
Day-trip visitors growing in popularity with higher visitor arrivals during summer
1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Overnight Visitors
Day Trips
Source: Niseko Town Office and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
Expatriates Working in Niseko No. of Expatriates
%
3,000
50
2,500
40
2,000
30
1,500
20
1,000
10
500 0
0 2014
2015
2016
Expat Workers
2017
2018
2019*
Growth Rate
Source: Niseko Town Office and C9 Hotelworks Market Research;* 2019 Projected
4
C9 Niseko Tourism and Property Market Review: Dec 2019
Marked increase in expatriates from Southeast Asia and Western countries due to influx of seasonal staff
International Direct Air Routes to Sapporo/New Chitose Airport
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Helsinki Vladivostock
Beijing
Sapporo
Dalian
Tianjin
Seoul Busan
Qingdao
Nanjing Changsha
Shanghai
Wuxi Hangzhou
Fuzhou
Taipei
Hong Kong Kaohsiung
Bangkok
Manila
Honolulu
Sydney Kuala Lumpur Singapore Source: New Chitose Airport and C9 Hotelworks Market Research
C9 Hotelworks Company Limited 9 Lagoon Road, Cherngtalay, Thalang, Phuket, 83110, Thailand (Office located at the entrance of Laguna Phuket) T: +66(0)76 325 345 www.c9hotelworks.com info@c9hotelworks.com