FEATURE TIMBER SUPPLY
Ukraine War & Supply Pressures
David Hopkins, CEO of Timber Development UK, offers an insight into what may lie ahead for the timber supply chain during the second half of 2022.
T
The beginning of 2022 saw most timber merchants’
with 2020 levels, and there has been little fall away from these peaks
shelves fully stocked with timber following the supply
so far in 2022, despite stocks on the ground mostly returning to pre-
challenges that we all experienced in 2021. And yet
pandemic levels. Given the high price of fuel and manufacturing, we do
we started the year aware that a number of possible
not expect prices to fall significantly for the rest of this year.
barriers to trade lay ahead, even before the war in Ukraine began.
Timber is globally traded and the UK is, effectively, competing with other markets including the EU and the US for timber imports. Increased demand
Rising global fuel costs are having a significant impact on manufacturing and prices across the board, with many of these costs
from one country or region will inevitably impact on the supplies available to
inevitably being passed down the supply chain to merchants and
another, and prices are always affected by that balance between supply and
tradespeople.
demand. The US repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) and private housing markets are booming and this is likely to mean greater competition
We’re also still experiencing the impact of a widespread shortage of HGV drivers, and despite government attempts to fast-track new
for wood supplies this year – inevitably either driving prices higher or, at the
drivers coming into the industry, we expect that this will continue
very least, keeping them at current levels. It is possible that current consumer concerns in the UK around the
until at least the end of 2022. Add to that the impact of new customs regulations that came into force on 1st January 2022 as a result of
rising cost of living and falling consumer confidence may cause demand
Britain’s departure from the European Union, and it was already clear
for private RMI work to fall slightly as people choose not to spend
that, despite the return of timber stocks on the ground, the next 12
money unless absolutely necessary. Whether this may help to offset or
months would be far from plain sailing.
at least slow down any price rises only time will tell.
Now, as the impact of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine continues The impact of Russian sanctions
to have an impact on supplies of certain products, we know there are
The war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions are already affecting
some uncertain months ahead for everyone.
the timber supply chain. UK and EU sanctions have banned the imports Prices remain high
of timber from either country – a move that PEFC, FSC and Timber Development UK all strongly support. Ultimately, any timber exported
Timber prices remain high this year after significant increases during 2021. The average price of sawn and planed softwoods in May,
from Russia or Belarus since 8 April is now considered ‘conflict timber’
June and July 2021 rose by 55%, 65% and 88% respectively compared
and cannot be used.
Timber Construction Magazine
Summer 2022
14
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