Slide 1
Changing How We Age
TR Mann Consulting Marketing for Boomer and Beyond www.TRMann.com
Thank you, Paul. We’ll, first I should tell you, I am not a professional trend spotter or a scientist. However, I do own a consulting firm, TR Mann Consulting, that specializes in marketing for boomers and beyond, so I follow trends very closely and then try to figure out how they affect our clients. By the way, much of the wonderful insights that follow are from a spectacular futurist, Jack Uldrich and his equally wonderful site, Jump the Curve. Another favorite of mine is Laurie Orlov’s site, Aging In Place Technology. Alright, so let’s get started.
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Slide 2
Aging Is A Disease
How many people know who this is? This is Aubrey de Grey, a British researcher who claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born. I used to think he was crazy. I’m not so sure any more. Here’s why … (For an AMAZING video of Mr. de Grey click here – running time 23:32)
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Slide 3
NanoTech
Regenerative Medicine
Stem cell
BioTech
Convergence of Tech/Science
Genomics
Information Tech
Robotics
The future is accelerating! Exponential advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technology, robotics, genomics, stem cell research, regenerative medicine, brain-scanning technology, data storage, Internet bandwidth, photonics, energy technology, algorithms, voice recognition technology, social networks and synthetic biology—just to name a few—are converging at this point in history. Given all these tools, is it unfathomable that someone in this room will live to be 1000 years old? Think about it this way, is it anymore unfathomable that a 4-TON mass of metal would be able to fly through
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the air? Our early forefathers would have thought both equally ridiculous. In fact, the Wright brothers were mocked by the scientists of their day. By the way, The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act allocates more than $20 billion to drive adoption of advanced healthcare technologies. You think this might push some companies to drive this technology?
Slide 4
So, can you hear the future calling? We will soon be diagnosing illness as well as getting treatment advice from our Smartphones. Medicine/health is the third-fastest-growing category of iPhone apps, trailing only games and travel. Already there are over 2,000 Apple iPhone medical apps. TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
What can smart phones do? Orange Healthcare UK, is completing a trial of phoneconnected devices that enable hospital doctors to monitor remotely the health of patients in their own homes. The trial, at Navarra University Hospital, in Spain, focuses on people with diabetes, but the technology can also be used with conditions such as high blood pressure and heart disease. Many corporations are racing to develop mobile health — or mHealth as the industry calls it. In America, Johnson & Johnson’s Lifescan unit is piloting an app that lets users upload readings from their wearable blood-glucose monitors to their iPhones. Meanwhile a wearable wireless skin patch is being developed by Gentag to send an alert from a patient’s mobile if he or she develops complications at home after surgery. The patch may be part of a “Wiban”, a wireless network that monitors all your vital signs. This market is worth billions. There are over 300 million people in the West who would benefit from phone-linked home care. The current cost of running a health system based on hospital beds and buildings can’t be sustained, particularly with our aging population and ballooning budgets. The pharmaceutical companies are currently working to create “smart pills” that transmit data from inside your body to your phone to check you have taken medicines as prescribed. If not, you may expect a text reminding you of the physical penalties of non-compliance. Most importantly, you’ll see a real movement in the West towards preventive care, rather than reactive care. Following in Nike’s footsteps (pun intended), Houston University scientists have created an app called Walk’n’Play that tracks people’s physical activity. The researchers say that it will enable them to list the fattest and fittest cities in the world as a way of encouraging people to exercise more. Smartphones will make tracking our physical activity and food intake, easier and more fun!
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Slide 5
Apps, Apps, And More Apps
Are you a care giver? If so, that means that you are one of the more than 50 million Caregivers in this country. Being a Caregiver is one of the greatest gifts you can give, it requires dedication and organization. Trust me, I know, during my Mom’s battle with cancer and Alzheimer’s my siblings and I served as caregivers. The CareConnector app is designed to help keep you organized by providing quick and easy access to critical information that Caregivers need including contact information for healthcare providers, insurance policy numbers, prescription information, and more. Having trouble sleeping? Use the free TYLENOL® PM Sleep Tracker App on your iPhone or iPod touch to see how beneficial a good night’s sleep can be. Or imagine having to deal with chemo therapy on your own. Physically and mentally drained, it can be hard to keep track of your treatments. The iChemo diary can help.
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
What about GoMeals™, a new iPhone application (app) designed to help people living with diabetes make healthy food choices? GoMeals™ is a food tracking tool which allows users to search thousands of foods and dishes from popular restaurants and grocery stores to easily see the nutritional content of meals and snacks. By the way, GoMeals is great even if you don’t have diabetes. I could go on and on about apps but we’d run out of time.
Slide 6
But the new technology we are talking about goes way beyond your smart phone. Scientist have recently created an organic transistor that mimics a brain synapse. This organic transistor exhibits the main behavior of a biological spiking synapse and can lead to a new generation of neuro-inspired computers, capable
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of responding in a manner similar to the nervous system … which in turn could lead us to logical computers.
Slide 7
I predict that robots, once a thing of science fiction will soon enter into mainstream living, particularly for seniors. Picture a computerized pet that serves as a companion like this Paro. Paro is a robot pet companion currently being sold in Japan that interacts with its senior companion. Now take that companion robot a few steps further. Imagine it vacuums the carpet (like your Roomba), and reports back to a health care provider when it’s “master” is not feeling well or has fallen. "Mental Commitment Robots" like Paro are developed to interact with human beings and to make them feel emotional attachment. Mental Commitment Robots provide psychological benefits, such as relaxation and motivation … physiological, such as improvement in vital signs (just like your real pets do) … and social effects such as instigating communication between a caregiver and a patient. TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
By the way, if you want to see an amazing video on the Paro, just go to YouTube and plug it in. The Japanese are light-years ahead of us in terms of acceptance of technology and a world-apart in terms of cultural norms. They provide a remarkable window into the future.
Slide 8
With health care soon being universal and the possibility of being declined due to a pre-existing conditions no longer existing, we’ll become more ambitious about acquiring information that can help forecast possible health problems. Sequencing an individual’s genome will become the norm, in fact, I just read yesterday, that WalGreens is now offering the first ever, over-the-counter genetic test. I think the one with the works cost just under $250. These tests could potentially save our health plans huge sums of money by making our health care more targeted, not to mention the dramatic implications to our personal health. This breakthrough will TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
result in explosive growth of customized drugs and supplements. To give you an example of how effective this type of targeting can be, a particular heart drug has been found to reduce death rates for people who have a specific genetic mutations by up to 38%. Another great example is that computer algorithms are now analyzing the activity of 20,000 genes to better match specific chemotherapy drugs with individual cancer patients. Customized foods, drugs, supplements, and preventive health plans will become some of the BIGGEST opportunities in the coming decade.
Slide 9
Researchers at Intel are working on a “brain sensing� chip that could allow an individual to control a TV, computer or robot simply by thinking about it. Experts TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
say that this technology is 10-15 years away, but the San Francisco company that designed this headset, Emotiv, is already selling headsets to researchers for $500. Based on the latest developments in neuro-technology, the Company claims to have developed a helmet device that can detect thoughts, feeling and expression. The Company envisions a future where machines can detect non-conscious communication, including perception, intuition and expression. Emotiv is initially focusing on the electronic gaming industry. The prospects for this technology are amazing and could be coming soon. In fact, pushed by the gaming community and potential profits, I think braincomputer interface (BCI) technology could be main-stream sooner than 10 years. Aside from the fun gamers will have, think of the advantages for those with serious disabilities. Will we look funny wearing these devices? Perhaps, but we could easily move to implants. Is this an overly aggressive prediction? Look how quickly smartphones have been adopted. Did you know that there are 328 hip replacements a day in the US? Who could have predicted that adoption rate 10 years ago? My point is that if the technology empowers people, they’ll use it.
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Slide 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyN4ViZ21N0
Think this all sounds a bit far-fetched, take a look at this video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyN4ViZ21N0
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Slide 11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp4XUvgqkbU
Now, combine some of the ‘intellectual’ technology with some of the ‘physical’ technology improvements, and you have a retirement community dining room that looks very different. Imagine a world with no wheel chairs or walkers. Housing developers, imagine the savings of not having to do universal design. Imagine the dignity of putting the physically disabled on a level playing field. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp4XUvgqkbU
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Slide 12
iSpecs
Apple has recently filed a new patent for 3-D glasses. The obvious application is that the glasses will be used to watch 3-D movies and play more immersive video games. Less obviously is that the glasses may also be a boon to innovative educators and physical therapists. How could this help? How many of you have tried an exercise DVD where the instructor is teaching you a new move that you actually can’t execute because you are bent out of shape trying to see HOW to do it? Now, tie new technology’s ability to measure you movement or progress with these programs and you have fitness or therapy programs that progress as you progress. One of the main reasons people give up on exercise and therapy programs? Boredom! The program isn’t evolving and keeping their interest. We’re not that far away from this being a reality. By the way, that’s why socially interactive games have been sooooo successful. We can’t predict what’s coming next in the game.
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
How could this evolve even further? There’s a company in England called Musion Technology that is developing holograms. That’s right baby boomers, remember watching Star Trek, where they used holograms for training, relaxation and fun. Well, they are now a reality. Take a look.
Slide 13
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf5esT95Glw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf5esT95Glw So, what are the implications? Well, we’ve already seen how games like the Wii have changed boomer and senior behavior. Those principals can be used for all sort of things.
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Slide 14
So, we talked about some of the possibilities. But I think that the real opportunities exist in behavioral modification. Humans are by nature both social and competitive. How else could you explain the success of Facebook’s Mafia Wars and Farmville? In fact, if you look at some of the most successful games of the last 5 years, they have flipped the gaming world on its head. Think about it. These games have no end, they are on-going and they utilize social interaction. Facebook has over 400 million users, that’s bigger than most countries. The US only has 308 million people by comparison. So, there’s plenty of people to interact with, socialize with, and most of all compare yourself to. Then, when you throw into the mix augmented reality, like the Wii, you start to see real behavioral change. For example, my firm TR Mann Consulting currently has a client, a not-forprofit foundation called LEAF, that is developing a brain fitness program that implements social interaction and reinforcement, i.e. live classes, with augmented TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
reality computer based training, in a comprehensive brain fitness program called Super Noggin. The goal is true behavioral change! Helping people improve their cognitive health.
Slide 15
In the next thirty years, we will see exponential growth in life expectancy. Remember, ‘exponential’ is the power of doubling. With each year seeing more and more advances, this is how our friend Aubrey de Grey arrives at some of us in this room living to 1000. In fact, Mr. de Grey coined the term ‘actuarial escape velocity’ (AEV) which is the point at which life expectancy goes up faster than 1 year per year. Once we reach AEV, each year our odds of not dying are better than they were the previous year. The reality of actuarial escape velocity might be closer than you think. The number of centenarians is increasing at 7% per year, which means we are doubling the centenarian population every decade, pushing TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
it into the millions in the next few years. With the average life expectancy of a US citizen now over 78, even a 30% increase in healthy life span will give the first beneficiaries of rejuvenation therapies another 20 years. During those twenty important years, science will continue its amazing exponential march, adding additional second-generation therapies that could give you another 30% increase. This process could repeat itself over and over. And remember, we talking about healthy active years, not frail depressing years. All of this is good news, right? I mean, after all, we’re going to live forever. Well, it also means we’re going to have to work forever. Governments, time to rethink social security and Medicare. Also, insurance companies and continuing care retirement communities, are you listening? Your actuarial charts are wrong. Anyway, time to start planning for a longer life.
So, who’s going to benefit, aside from the computer and pharma companies, the most in the next 5 years? Here are my best bets: Cosmeceuticals: Until the technology behind skin cell rejuvenation catches up, people will spend money to look good. Market research projections indicate that cosmeceuticals could grow by 7.2 percent a year to hit $8.2 billion in U.S. sales by 2012, bolstered by a combination of scientific advancements and improved marketing. Dietary Supplements: Food, beverages, and supplements will be combined synergistically to promote better well-being, with antioxidants at the top of the ingredient panel. By the way, if you ever want to read a great book, read the AntiAlzheimer’s Prescription, which is big on antioxidants. And it won’t be just foods that are used as a delivery system. Topical products like skin cream and sun tan lotion will make use of a range of ingredients from caffeine, peptides, and probiotics. In particular, I think the area of probiotics will continue to grow. A modern day example of this is the yogurt Activia. Probiotics are live microorganisms thought to be good for your health. Minimally Invasive Procedures: In the current economy, expensive cosmetic surgical procedures will decline. Instead, people will turn to more affordable, lessinvasive anti-aging procedures like wrinkle reduction, dermal fillers, skin rejuvenation, and laser-based liposuction. Prescription based diet pills and supplements will continue to become more main-stream as we battle the bulge. TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333
Planned meals: Food companies will get into the act with a mainstream approach to solving a multiple of problems including weight loss, diabetes, celiacs disease, and many more – with a robust offering of healthy and delicious preplanned meals. Customers will be able to track their calorie, sugars, transfats, etc. on personalized websites. Slide 16
Resources
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TRMann.com Mature-Market-Experts.com JumpTheCurve.net AgingInPlaceTech.com
Resources www.TRMann.com www.Mature-Market-Experts.com www.JumpTheCurve.net www.AgingInPlaceTech.com
In closing, I invite you to carefully consider the future of aging and then position your company or clients to catch the wave.
TR Mann Consulting * www.TRMann.com * 410-292-4333