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NPD Insight

NPD Insight

It really is beginning to look a lot like Christmas. The weather has turned, Black Friday has been and gone, and our screens are awash with festive ads, albeit with a slightly different tone this year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, some retailers elected to adopt a more muted, toned-down approach this time round, such as John Lewis. Personally, I like the ad, and skateboard companies will absolutely love it (although look out for lots of skateboarding dads in A&Es across the country in the New Year). Not everyone has gone down that route, with other ads being more upbeat: Smyths is a high-octane, toyfilled thrill ride with admirably high production values, while Asda even succeeded in persuading Warner Bros and Will Ferrell to let them feature footage of the iconic Buddy the Elf character in its ad, which many people have told me is their favourite creative execution of the season so far.

Ads aside, the next four weeks are all about one thing – sales. The disappointing sales numbers at the end of September and the early part of October have been well documented, so there is no need to dwell on that. Thankfully, October half-term saw a marked improvement, and that momentum has largely continued through November. Some retailers who had previously told suppliers they thought they had enough stock to last them through to Christmas even came back looking for more. Lest we forget, the run-in to Christmas was not phenomenal last year; consumers buying early because of well-publicised stock shortages and an increase in Covid cases in December combined to dampen sales in the final six weeks of trading in 2021. This year we should see an upswing across November and December, providing retailers have held their nerve and maintained stock levels.

Indeed, the fortunes of retailers in the run-up to Christmas can depend to a large degree on getting the supply chain right. Ensuring stock is where it needs to be, keeping shelves full and maintaining a smooth flow of online order fulfilment can make a big difference to performance – either way. We caught up with The Entertainer’s Gary Grant and CEO Mark Campbell last month, to talk about its trial partnership with Tesco. I now understand far better where The Entertainer believes it can add major value and grow toy sales in Tesco, which would in turn grow toy market sales as a whole. With The Entertainer taking care of deliveries to each store via its own lorries, and handling all day-to-day stock, merchandising and pricing decisions, ensuring shelves are kept fully stocked the whole time (something a

hard-pressed Tesco store manager probably struggles to do with the huge food & drink workload over November and December), the size of the prize across peak season alone offers a great opportunity for both parties to grow sales. The Entertainer is certainly throwing itself into the partnership – right the way up to Gary, who took us to see the new Entertainer-branded aisles of his local Tesco and quickly turned into the most high-profile retail merchandiser in the toy market. You can read more about the partnership in our exclusive interview, which starts on page 34.

With a crucial month’s trading ahead, the toy community is also gearing up for Toy Fair season. Next month’s issue will deliver an exhaustive round-up of the London Toy Fair, as well as an extensive preview of the Nuremberg Toy Fair. However, for those retailers who are already working on their Nuremberg diaries, we have an early sneak peek at some of the new lines being unveiled in Nuremberg in this edition. Turn to page 44 to get a glimpse of some of the exciting new launches you’ll be able to see at the show, with much more to come next month.

We’ve already started to preview some of the ranges that will be hitting shelves in 2023, but our busy schedule in November and December (putting a 300+ page issue together is a gargantuan team effort, requiring all hands to the pump) precludes us from attending many individual company previews before Christmas. This is where the Toy Fairs come into their own; in three days, we can cover so much ground and see so many new products. With no January trip to Hong Kong in 2023, and the New York Toy Fair moving from its traditional February slot to September, both London and Nuremberg Toy Fairs will take on massive extra significance next year. It will also make planning more important than ever: buyers will have to cram all their appointments into two shows rather than three or four, and suppliers’ diaries will hopefully be full to bursting as a result. Our mammoth January issue will help everyone to plan their trips to get the most out of Toy Fair season: look out for it in the first week of January and, as ever, do keep your pets away from the letterbox when it arrives – it’s going to be another weighty tome.

In the meantime, from all of the Toy World team, we hope that December trading is all you hope it will be. Have a fantastic Christmas and a very happy New Year, and we look forward to seeing you all at one of the shows in the New Year.

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