NPD Insight

Countdown to Christmas

Melissa examines recent toy market sales data and looks at how different price points are performing – and are likely to perform in the last few weeks before Christmas. With a full shopping week in the run up to the big day, there’s still everything to play for…

The UK toy market has sold over £2b YTD October 2022, but sales are down -4% on the same period a year ago, as concerns about the increase in the cost-of-living impact consumer shopping habits. Despite consumers being more price conscious this year, most of the value loss is actually from the lower price points. Toys under £10, which account for two thirds of the volume sold so far this year, lost sales of £64m, as shoppers have reigned in impulse purchases and non-essential toy purchases. NPD’s Toys Consumer 360 service shows that No Special Occasion purchases - which historically account for a third of toy market spend - has declined -6%, faster than the total toy market. Perhaps consumers concerned about their overall spend may be saving for a higher priced toy purchase for Christmas? This is a similar pattern to what we’ve seen in the past when the UK economy is weak, as unplanned purchases are easily cut out and parents say no more often to pester power.

Despite this decline in the low price points so far this year, we’re still seeing growth in the Collectibles segment, up +12% in value and now accounting for one in every five toys purchased. However, the average selling price of collectibles has increased by +12% and is now £6.31. One of the fastest growing collectibles ranges is Squishmallows,which is also the fastest growing property in the UK Toy market. Furthermore, it hasn’t shown any sign of slowing down - especially with the recent introduction of licences to the collection. In addition, we’ve seen continued growth from Pokémon Trading cards after a strong 25-year anniversary last year. At the time of writing (mid-November), the success of the Qatar World Cup Stickers has also been driving the collectible market and could also potentially help slow the decline in low price items in December, depending on how far England football team progresses in the tournament.

Looking at other price points, value sales of £10 - £29.99 price points remain relatively flat and account for 27% of all volume sales. However, the £30-£49.99 price point has grown +9% at the same time as the £50-£99.99 price point has declined by -10%, as some consumers trade down from higher prices to a level they are more comfortable with. Properties that are performing well in the £30 - £49.99 price point include Star Wars, Fisher-Price, VTech Baby, Jurassic World and Lego Creator Expert, all of which are up double-digits.

For most of 2022, the UK Toy market has been squeezed to middle price points, as consumers cut back on the lower priced items and traded down on lines at higher price points. December usually sees higher price points take a larger share of the market, with many higher priced lines topping the best-selling items list. In October we’ve already seen three items with an average selling price of over £100 in the top ten for the month: Barbie’s DreamHouse at number one, Lego Technic Ferrari Daytona SP3 at number five and Lego Technic Maclaren Formula 1 Team 2022 Race car at number eight.

We may expect to see a better performance from higher priced items over the last weeks of the year, but lower priced items remain important - 22% of volume in December 2021 sold at under £5. These items may be stocking fillers or additional purchases outside the main Christmas present and can collectively add more volume to the market than a single high-priced item.

This year, Christmas is on a Sunday, meaning we have a full week of shopping prior to the main day, whilst Christmas Eve on a Saturday is expected to be big day for retailers. The last time this occurred was in 2016; in that year, week 51 took the highest sales of the year, accounting for 6% of annual toy sales - largely through physical stores. For week 51 2016, 22 out of the top 50 best-selling items were priced under £15, meaning that these low-price items could be a driver of sales late in the year. However, it may feel like a long wait to week 51 for the trade, and we may yet experience a few wobbles in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

Item Progression:

Sylvanian Families Bluebell Cottage, with an average selling price for October of £33.49, jumped up the rankings in October despite only having 20% weighted distribution. The Sylvanian Families property remains No.4 in Dolls, behind Barbie, L.O.L. Surprise! and Disney Princess, while it is the No.2 property in the Playset Dolls & Accessories segment. While Playset Dolls was down -2% for October, a number of properties saw strong performance with L.O.L Surprise! up +10% for October and growth from Real Little and Disney Princess. New launches in the category from Magic Mixies and Barbie also performed well.

Top Properties & Top Gaining Properties

The fastest growing property in the UK Toy market YTD October 2022 is Squishmallows, helping to drive Traditional Plush to the fastest growing subclass in the UK. The Squishmallow 8” is the No.2 bestselling item in the UK, with the other sizes also performing well with both children and adults. Jurassic World continues its strong performance in the UK as the top growing film property this year, while DC’s The Batman release early in the year is still driving DC Universe performance. Disney’s Encanto remains the No.1 new toy property this year; the property is particularly strong in Building Sets and Dolls, accounting for 45% and 42% of sales respectively. Building Set properties also remain strong, with Lego’s Star Wars and Lego Jurassic Park growing. Star Wars has been driven by some of the new higher price point sets such as the Millennium Falcon, as well as the Darth Vader and Mandalorian Helmet sets. Lego Creator Expert is also driven by higher priced items such as the Botanical Collection Flower Bouquet and Bonsai Tree sets. Bluey is the biggest growing pre-school property, although the recent launch of Gabby’s Dollhouse will provide strong competition in the category for the end of the year.