Opinion - Generation Media

The John Lewis Effect

Rather than taking up skateboarding to impress, this month Jonathan suggests that marketers use historical data to predict when Christmas spirit will kick in for consumers.

Deciding the timing of H2 marketing has always been a tricky business – let alone in 2022 when the cost-of-living crisis and Qatar World Cup have undoubtedly impacted and altered consumers’ media and retail behaviours. Should you go early to build share of voice in lower cost periods and gain a competitive advantage? Or should you wait until natural sales spikes occur and plan to outmanoeuvre the competition? Even the traditional staple of the October the half term period has become increasingly compromised by the focus of retailer messaging on Halloween.

The key is often to judge when “Christmas spirit” is likely to kick in and, where budgets allow, focus marketing efforts around this period (whilst still having messaging prior so as not to go in cold). But herein lies the catch, which can often be overlooked. Advertisers, specifically retailers, have a huge responsibility in building Christmas sales momentum. The “John Lewis effect” usually references the emotional triggers within the company’s ads. However, in the challenging modern retail landscape, the true John Lewis effect is changing the psyche of the average consumer to start thinking about Christmas, and all the purchasing that entails.

Using Google Trends we can assess spikes in search activity over time, and there is a clear correlation between searches for “John Lewis” (following the launch of their 2022 Christmas ad on 10th November) and Christmas”:

Clearly a lot of this correlation will also be coincidental, as proximity to the event will always increase interest, but the week of the John Lewis ad saw Christmas search volumes more than double, beating the natural trend line we would expect to see over time.

John Lewis 2022:

Christmas 2022:

John Lewis is not alone in this responsibility of course, with all major online and traditional retailers, especially grocers, fighting for share of mind and wallet. Closer to home within the toy industry, Smyths is the leading light in this regard. Launching on the 4th November, its incredible 2022 Christmas ad amassed over seven million views on YouTube within the first 12 days, leading to an inevitable spike in searches:

Smyths 2022:

However, year-on-year search interest in Smyths is behind.

Smyths 20212022:

Environmental factors clearly have a part to play in this, but timing remains crucial. This, perhaps, is the most notable retail marketing trend of the past decade – the fact that Christmas messaging is becoming later and later. The arguments for and against this are manifold. Advertising clearly stimulates sales, but retailers have a responsibility to their own P+Ls to maximise their messaging around natural sales uplifts and promotional periods, such as Black Friday.

What is sometimes overlooked is that advertisers’ hands are somewhat forced by media inflation. TV was for time immemorial the launchpad for large scale Christmas campaigns, but the rate card cost of reaching a houseperson with children in November is +53% vs. 2019 (pre pandemic). Little wonder then that advertisers now trust their owned and earned platforms to launch campaigns. YouTube is now more commonly used than TV, and we even saw John Lewis launch via their own app this year in order to stimulate downloads. Such strategies undoubtedly deliver views, but do they deliver a longer-term uplift in brand interest. Google Trends suggest perhaps not, when looking at the past five years (although we have to take into account spend levels, environmental factors, etc.).

John Lewis 2017-2022:

So how should this impact Q4 2023 planning (it is never too early to start thinking ahead)? The answer of course is not a linear one, because all brands will have a unique answer.

Traditionally, we have seen brands focus on early Q3/Q4 sales opportunities to stimulate retailer re-orders. These should still remain of course, particularly where low-cost media opportunities arise out of peak demand season. However, strategies can sometimes overly focus on this initial launch, and not leave enough in reserve for peak season. So you should consider using historic information to predict when Christmas 2023 campaigns will begin, ensure you have significant budget to deploy in the surrounding weeks, and build the strategy backwards from there. Take advantage of the John Lewis effect and maximise the chances of Christmas retail success.

Jonathan Chambers Director of AV Investment, Generation Media. - Tel: 0207 307 7906 Jonathan.Chambers@generationmedia.co.uk