Circana - Insight

Positive signs at the end of the year

Looking at data up to the middle of December, Melissa highlights the strongest performing categories to date, which are also the categories with the highest level of new items.

At the time writing there are still three weeks of toy sales for 2024, so how the year will end is still unknown. The UK Toy market remains challenging with Year-To-Date 7th December sales down -4.6% in value. Q4 sales remain sluggish, with consumers appearing to leave Christmas shopping until after Halloween and often not starting until they receive their November pay cheque, just weeks before the big day. With the way the calendar falls this year, Black Friday moved from Week 47 in 2023 to week 48 in 2024, which also had the effect of delaying the start of Christmas purchasing for those who were waiting to take advantage of the promotions available. The UK is the most heavily promoted toy market in Europe, with 35% of value sales sold on promotion in 2023, compared to 24% in the rest of Europe. Last year, 50% of sales in November were sold on promotion in the UK – the highest promotional month of the year, and 2024 seems to be following a similar trend.

Thankfully, Black Friday week was a strong performing week, showing the first positive signs for the season – it showed an increase of +17% in value year on year and +10% in units on the same week a year ago. Black Friday week saw all supercategories in growth versus the same week in 2023, ranging from +48% growth for Building Sets to a sedate +1% for Dolls. Even more positively, the market as a whole was up +9% in value on Black Friday week in 2023. This continued into week 49, Cyber Monday week, where sales remained relatively stable, down just -1% in value compared to the same week a year ago. This means the two-week Black Friday and Cyber Monday period in 2024 is up +3% on value and +4% in units compared to 2023. Action Figures, Building Sets and Vehicles all showed double-digit value growth, and only two categories were in decline for the like-for-like promotional periods – Dolls and Youth Electronics.

Most consumers don’t seem to have started their Christmas shopping until these weeks, waiting for the promotions to kick-start the season. This means that, effectively, peak season is shortened into the last six weeks of the year, rather than spread-out over the whole final quarter. In the final three weeks of 2023, sales were worth 12% of annual sales with week 50 and 51 showing the largest weekly sales of the year. This trend is likely to be similar for 2024,

due to the calendar shift of Christmas on a Wednesday this year, which means the UK toy market should finish the year stronger than we’ve seen so far in Q4 and showing a positive December overall, with sales expected to continue right up to Christmas Eve. However, overall, the market will still be down in value for the full year compared to 2023, the fourth year in a row of market decline.

With three weeks of sales to go, seven out of eleven supercategories are down year-on-year. The strongest performing categories are Building Sets, Vehicles, Youth Electronics and Plush, where a combination of kidult appeal (toy purchases for 12+ years), licensing and collectibles remain strong. Interestingly these are also the categories with the highest level of new items share.

Collectibles continues to gain share in UK toy market in 2024, accounting for 15.0% of value and 21.2% of volume YTD 7th December, up from 10.8% and 18.1% respectively in the same period in 2021. This category appeals across both kids and adults with Pokémon, Squishmallows and Funko Pop! the top collectible properties this year. The category also saw strong growth from Adrenalyn, Match Attax, Miniverse and Snackles. Licensing continues to outperform non-licensed toys and now accounts for 35% of sales, growing +2% YTD 7th December. Lilo and Stitch is the fastest growing licence in 2024, ahead of the liveaction film release in 2025. There is also strong growth from UEFA following the Euro Champions over the summer, as well as from Mercedes-Benz and McLaren driven by Lego Technic and Speed Champions lines. Despite a slower box office performance for toy related properties in 2024 than in previous years, there has been growth with Despicable Me/ Minions, Sonic the Hedgehog and Lion King licences, all benefiting from film releases in 2024, as well as the Wicked movie in Q4. The Bluey licence continues to grow in the Pre-school market. January is a great time to review how 2024 performed and what learnings can be taken from the year, but it is also the chance to start the year with a fresh slate, with consumers looking for exciting new properties, as well as proven favourites. 2025 is already looking more promising for film and streaming related properties with superhero movies back at the cinema, as well as the final season of Stranger Things. As always, the toy market looks forward to a stronger year in 2025.

Item Progression:

VTech’s Kidizoom Snap Touch Smartphone Assortment shows the fastest item progression for November, ending up as the No.2 item in Electronic Entertainment for the month, behind Kidizoom Duo DX. November saw sales for Electronic Entertainment pick up significantly from October, with Canal Toys Photo Creator Instant Camera, VTech’s Kidi DJ Drums and Kidi DJ Mix also enjoying strong item ranking jumps ahead of Christmas. Electronic Entertainment is one of the higher priced categories with an average selling price in November 2024 of £24.55 as many of these items are purchased for Christmas presents.

Fastest Growing Subclasses

As 2024 nears the end, Standard Building Sets looks set to be the fastest growing subclass in the UK, growing by +3% YTD November, an additional £6.87m on the same period a year ago. This is now the largest subclasses in value sales, accounting for 17.7% of total toy sales, as well as being the fastest growing. This category has heavily been driven by Kidults, sales of toys to 12+ years, with Lego Technic and Lego Botanicals both performing particularly well in 2024.

Non-Strategic Trading Cards and Collectibles is the second fastest growing category for the year, driven largely by high profile sports events, with the UEFA Euro collection from Topps and the Adrenalyn XL Premier League from Panini proving popular to collect. Collectibles continues to contribute strongly to other growth categories, with Miscellaneous Toys growth driven by Zuru’s Mini Brands and MGA’s Miniverse collectible ranges. Traditional Plush has always had an element of collectability, with Squishmallows continuing to be the top property in the category. 2024 has also seen growth from Zuru’s Snackles, as well as licensed growth from Pokémon and Paddington Bear. The Pre-School Talking & Sound subclass is the third largest growth category, with growth driven by Tonies. The Starter set is the top seller, as well as the Peppa Pig and Gruffalo licensed Tonies. Vehicles has been a solid performing supercategory all year, with three subclasses in the top growth YTD November – Mini Vehicles, Friction/Pump/Pull-Back and Finger/Extreme Vehicles & Acc. Hot Wheels has grown in all three categories and remains the No.1 property in Mini Vehicles and growing. Within Finger/Extreme Vehicles, Tech Deck is top property with Tony Hawk performing well, while for Friction as well as strong Hot Wheel performance, Super Mario Brothers has remained the top property. While the summer weather was not consistent, Playground Equipment is one of the fastest growing subclasses, with growth driven by Trampolines and Playsets. Finally, Robotic/Interactive Playmates has also grown this year, with Robo Alive, Bitzee and Fingerlings all growing by double-digits.