2021 Manitoba Tourism Strategy by Travel Manitoba

MANITOBA TOURISM STRATEGY

ABLE OF CONTENT

INTRODUCTION

APPROACH & PROCESS

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY

INDUSTRY TRENDS

VISION

TARGETS

GOALS & INITIATIVES

NEXT STEPS AND PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

APPENDICES

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 1

Acknowledgement: A visit to Manitoba means travelling through Treaty 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 Territory and through communities who are signatories to Treaties 6 and 10. It is the original lands of the Anishinaabeg, Anish-Ininiwak, Dakota, Dene, Ininiwak and Nehethowuk and the homeland of the Métis.

2 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

SETTING LAKE

Introduction “Tourism is vital for the success and growth of Manitoba’s economy, not only for its contribution to annual tax revenues and direct spending. Equally important is tourism’s role in providing valuable jobs, particularly for youth and first time workers. I’m confident that the tourism industry has the resiliency to recover and come back even stronger, to welcome visitors once again.”

Honourable Ralph Eichler Minister of Economic Development and Training Province of Manitoba

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 3

CHURCHILL

4 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

In 2019, Travel Manitoba, the Manitoba Chamber of Commerce and the Manitoba Government came together in the spirit of collaboration to create a new vision for tourism in the province, recognizing that a whole-of-government approach and private sector input would be required to increase tourism’s contribution to the provincial economy. The result: the Provincial Tourism Strategy for Manitoba, a document built with the consultation of industry stakeholders and core customers, and informed by the tourism industry trends influencing future visitors. Early accomplishments in delivering on the strategy included: • The recognition of tourism’s importance as a key economic driver, as evidenced by Travel Manitoba’s inclusion as one of seven strategic partners in Manitoba’s Economic Growth Plan to achieve incremental growth. • The determination that Manitoba’s strengths as a destination include significant community and marketplace engagement, placing it in the Trailblazer category of DestinationNEXT’s assessment criteria. • Adoption by the province of a whole-of-government approach in order to achieve growth in the tourism economy. Then, in early 2020, the worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 brought the global tourism industry to a standstill. COVID-19 has had significant impacts on Manitoba’s tourism economy and in some cases, has forced businesses to close. It is likely that Manitoba has yet to feel the full impact of COVID-19, and further challenges lie ahead. Visitation levels seen in 2019 may not return until 2024. With this in mind, an updated strategy that recognizes the far reaching impacts of COVID-19, and provides leadership for the future, is required. The updated strategy outlines 27 initiatives to be implemented over the next few years, as well as a re-examination of the original long term goals. As with the original strategy, success will be dependent on the alignment of efforts toward the common goals. The plan will be regularly reviewed and adapted, as circumstances warrant and as progress is made. By working together, we can achieve the vision for Manitoba to be a must-visit, four season destination, generating sustainable economic growth by delivering inspiring and authentic experiences in our unique, urban and wild settings.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 5

A pathway forward

In any significant crisis, it is natural to want things to go back to normal or to the way they were before. Manitoba has a window of opportunity to take immediate and bold action if it is to emerge as a thriving and more resilient destination that enriches the lives of our residents and our visitors. It is fair to say the decisions made now will shape the industry for many years to come. The priority, then, is to reenergize the industry—to act rather than react. Even as the COVID-19 crisis continues to create a world of uncertainty, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term, with the resumption of travel remaining a key objective. While this vital work progresses, the immediate focus needs to be on stimulating local demand, by appealing to Manitobans to explore their own backyard in order to build confidence in the visitor economy. As visitor confidence builds, Manitoba can then be actively promoted to the rest of the world. The domestic market presents the greatest market opportunity to actively encourage first, as we need to get Canadians experiencing Manitoba. However, Manitoba will continue to maintain a presence in international markets to enable quick activation of promotional activities when the opportunity arises.

6 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

CLEAR LAKE

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 7

RBC CONVENTION CENTRE

Approach & Process 8 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 9

A P P R OAC H This Strategy is based on extensive research, analysis and community engagement. Input from tourism industry leaders, elected officials, residents, visitors and clients, as well as involvement from the next generation of tourism industry and community leaders, was instrumental in creating the plan’s initiatives and recommendations. The Manitoba Tourism Strategy also considers key recommendations found in other planning initiatives that are underway or were recently completed. Manitoba’s tourism industry and stakeholders are poised to partner in coordinating the next phase of the Manitoba Tourism Strategy. As this strategy incorporates numerous ideas and proposed actions that transcend the tourism industry, initiative planning and implementation will be shared responsibilities among local governments, the provincial government, the tourism industry, economic development organizations, and communities at large throughout all regions of the province. The effective engagement and alignment of all stakeholders to develop solutions and outcomes together is critical to the success of the Manitoba Tourism Strategy.

Strategic Assessment Extensive Review of Existing Plans & Documentation

National & International Trends Analysis

10-Year Economic Forecast for Manitoba’s Tourism Sector

Visitor & Industry Research

Stakeholder Engagement 5 Industry Focus Groups with more than 90 Participants

Resident Survey with over 2,700 Responses

10 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

40+ One-on-One Interviews with Industry and Government Stakeholders Client Survey with Travel Trade & Meetings/Sports/Events Organizers

Industry & Stakeholder Consultations

WHITESHELL PROVINCIAL PARK

An extensive series of consultations were held with Manitoba’s tourism industry, other partners and stakeholders as a critical input in building this Manitoba Tourism Strategy. A broad range of ideas have been considered based on this input. In total, more than 90 participants were involved in five industry focus groups held virtually, and an additional 40 individuals representing various industry sectors, regions, and stakeholder groups were interviewed in a one-on-one interview setting. The consultations provided rich feedback for consideration in terms of the potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on Manitoba’s visitor economy and the unique challenges and opportunities for province.

Resident & Client Surveys In consultation with the Travel Manitoba team, MMGY NextFactor developed an online survey to identify and gauge Manitoban’s travel preferences and behaviours as well as openness to visitors in their respective communities. The survey was in the field from October 2-16, 2020 and more than 2,700 residents from across the province participated. A separate survey was sent out to members of the travel trade as well as meetings, sports and event organizers to understand changes to their perceptions of Manitoba as well as changes to their respective business models and strategies.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 11

phase

Project Initiation & Management

Destination Assessment

Plan Development

Confirm project plan and approach to stakeholder engagement.

Assess the current state of the industry, key trends, strategies, and conduct a ten-year economic forecast.

phase

PROJECT PLAN

Stakeholder Engagement Proactively engage key stakeholders and residents to collaboratively update and develop plan.

Develop an updated Manitoba Tourism Strategy with destination development recommednations and actions for implementation by the management team and key stakeholders.

12 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

THOMPSON

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 13

State of the Industry “It is only through the collective commitment of all stakeholders to the realization of the vision that we will be able to build the momentum for a lasting impact on this industry.”

Stuart Murray Board Chair Travel Manitoba

14 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

ESPLANADE RIEL PEDESTRIAN BRIDGE

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 15

Destination N E X T Travel Manitoba worked with MMGY NextFactor to conduct a DestinationNEXT assessment for Manitoba in 2015 and 2019. The survey of tourism industry stakeholders measures perceptions of Manitoba’s tourism strengths and community engagement. Manitoba shifted from Mountaineer in 2015 to the Trailblazer category in 2019, which indicates stronger community alignment and increased destination strength.

Manitoba’s scores in destination strength and community alignment are above industry average. • From a destination strength perspective: Manitoba’s perceived performance in convention

and meeting facilities improved, but performance decreased for communications and internet infrastructure and accommodation. • From a community engagement perspective: Increases were achieved in several areas which included funding support, policy and regulatory environment, industry support, economic development, partnership strength and organizational governance model.

Strong Community Engagement

VOYAGERS

TRAILBLAZERS

Manitoba Average 2019

Developing Destination

Manitoba Average 2015

EXPLORERS

MOUNTAINEERS

Weak Community Engagement 16 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Established Destination

VISITOR PROFILE In developing this Manitoba Tourism Strategy to set the path for a successful future, it is important to take stock of Manitoba’s performance in delivering travel market visitation and expenditures. Manitoba welcomed 10.6 million visitors in 2019, who spent $1.6 billion throughout the province. The vast majority (94%) of visitors to Manitoba in 2019 were Canadian, including Manitobans. A total of 5% were from the U.S., with 1% arriving from international markets. U.S. visitors accounted for 10% of visitor spending however, while overseas visitors accounted for 8%, spending roughly $1,200 per person visit. Manitoba’s reliance on the Canadian market, including same-day visitors from the province itself had been seen as a potential issue in the past. However, relying less on U.S. and international visitors has been advantageous during the COVID-19 pandemic, as these markets have suffered the greatest setbacks. With that said, they still represent a significant portion of visitor spending in the province, and certain businesses and destinations rely on these critical markets. Diversifying market segments will be crucial to ensuring the future resiliency of Manitoba’s visitor economy. By further developing and enhancing its tourism and business events offerings, Manitoba should be able to attract more visitors from further afield who tend to spend more. As well, elevating the diversity of experiences available throughout the province will enable each region to make greater contributions to generating increased visitation and visitor spending in Manitoba.

Preliminary 2019 Visitor Spending & Visitation by Area of Origin

MANITOBA

TOTAL VISITOR SPENDING $1.6 BILLION

$992.9 Million 9,028,000 person visits $110 per person visit

OTHER CANADIAN PROVINCES $340 Million 949,000 person visits $358 per person visit

UNITED STATES

$158.5 Million 472,000 person visits $336 per person visit

TOTAL VISITATION 10.6 MILLION

OVERSEAS

$136.7 Million 114,000 person visits $1,199 per person visit

Source: National Travel Survey (NTS), 2019 preliminary estimates, Statistics Canada; Visitor Travel Survey (VTS), 2019 preliminary estimates, Statistics Canada. Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 17

C O V I D - 1 9 I M PA C T S The travel, tourism, and hospitality industry has been decimated by the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, with the World Tourism Organization estimating that the pandemic could set the global tourism industry back 20 years. The devastating impacts to tourism will affect the lives of millions of Canadians. According to Statistics Canada, tourism is expected to lose between 300,000-400,000 jobs in 2020, plus an additional 100,000140,000 jobs in other sectors that provide goods and services to tourism such as farmers, millers and bakers. While Manitoba as a whole has only lost 2% of the jobs it had pre-pandemic or 13,700 jobs, employment in the lodging and restaurants sector is down 15%, or 6,500 jobs. These 6,500 lost hospitality jobs account for almost half of all lost jobs in Manitoba.

• Tourism industry in Canada expected to lose between 300,000-400,000 jobs in 2020 • Lost hospitality jobs account for almost half of all lost jobs in Manitoba • 80% of businesses in the tourism sector are at risk of failure Tourism businesses are uniquely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Destination Canada’s models show that 80% of businesses in the sector are at risk of failure—this means that 58,000 businesses ranging from 5 to 500 employees in Canada are at risk of closing, and that represents 10% of our SMEs in this country. Financially stressed hunting and fishing lodges face a particular risk in Manitoba. Large investor/operators in the hospitality sector will be more reluctant to invest in these businesses due to a lack of institutional knowledge of how these businesses operate, the heavy reliance on operator-client relationships, more complex due-diligence exercises, and lack of a high financial upside. A 50% loss of hunting and fishing lodges would cost the province $33 million in business sales, 404 jobs, and $5 million in provincial and local tax revenue.

18 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

CHURCHILL

Manitoba hotels have been devastated since lockdowns began in March, with occupancy levels at just over 30% in the month of October, compared to 76% for the same month in 2019. Hotel room revenue across Canada was down 74% in September, and the recovery will be slow. Tourism Economics estimates that room revenue will still be down 22% next spring and will not fully recover to 2019 levels until 2025. Overall, while hotel closures have so far kept to a minimum in Manitoba, the sector is under heavy financial stress and will need continued government support to prevent widespread bankruptcies. The situation is compounded by border restrictions. The number of U.S. residents entering Manitoba by land dropped 92% in September 2020 compared to September 2019. U.S. direct entrants by air to Canada via Winnipeg dropped by 98% during the same time period, and direct overseas entrants by air to Canada via Winnipeg fell by 99%.

This is particularly devastating for destinations such as Churchill, which rely heavily on international travel. 80% of all visitors to Churchill are international, and these leisure travellers may be hesitant to book an international trip until the border is open and all restrictions on international travellers (such as a mandatory quarantine) are eliminated. The economic costs of not supporting Churchill’s visitor economy are plainly apparent: $42 million in GDP annually for the province and $10 million in provincial/local tax revenue. However, there are additional factors to consider. The visitor economy is the primary source of income for Churchill, and this town of 899 individuals will struggle for existence without a strong rebound in the travel sector. Despite the devastating impacts to the visitor economy, Canadians still believe tourism is vital, with roughly nine in ten (88%) of Canadians stating that tourism is very important to Canada’s economy. Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 19

Recovery Forecast

Manitoba’s tourism industry is facing a roughly four-year recovery period according to Tourism Economics. The Oxford Economics company developed baseline, upside and downside forecasts for the next 10 years of travel to and within the province. The baseline scenario points to a return to 2019 visitation levels by 2023 and a return to 2019 visitor spending levels by 2024. In the Baseline Scenario, $1.8 billion in lost visitor spending over four years results in the losses of: • $3.5 billion in business sales; • $1.6 billion in GDP; • $900 million in wages; • $372 million in local and provincial tax revenue; and • an annual average of 3,978 jobs.

Visitor spending in Manitoba, three scenarios Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019

19-’30 growth

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

$1,628

$863

$1,225

$1,523

$1,710

$1,828

$1,970

$2,099

$2,229

$2,356

$2,490

$2,631

$1,003

62%

$765

$404

$105

$780

$1,021

$1,368

$1,541

$1,653

$1,791

$1,917

$2,046

$2,174

$2,309

$2,452

$825

51%

$849

$607

$260

$87

$691

$809

$1,030

$1,311

$1,548

$1,685

$1,813

$1,945

$2,077

$2,216

$2,366

$738

45%

$937

$819

$598

$317

$80

Upside Scenario Visitor Spending Losses Baseline Scenario Visitor Spending

$1,628

Losses Downside Scenario Visitor Spending Losses

$1,628

Sources: Statistics Cananda; Tourism Economics

20 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

SNOW LAKE

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 21

In the short-term, the downside risk outweighs the potential upside opportunity, with reimposed lockdowns and a global financial crisis posing the biggest risks. Compared to the Baseline Scenario, this Downside Scenario would cost the province an additional $949 million in spending, $822 million in GDP, and $163 million in provincial taxes. Recovery will come in waves. The first set of small gains made in the second half of 2020 were inconsistent, with surges in cases and reimposed lockdowns hindering significant recovery. More consistent recovery will begin in spring and summer of 2021 as vaccines become available, the fear of travel abates, and international travel picks up. By the end of 2021, Tourism Economics expects hotel room demand to have recovered roughly 80% of its 2019 levels. The last wave of growth will require more time as the economy rebuilds, supporting leisure (and especially) corporate and group travel recoveries. This brings us to 2024 when travel has fully recovered its prior peak.

Economic losses in Manitoba associated with lost visitor spending Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total

Visitor Spending

$765

$404

$105

$1,274

GDP

$662

$350

$91

$1,103

Provincial taxes

$131

$69

$18

$218

Visitor Spending

$849

$607

$260

$87

$1,803

GDP

$735

$526

$225

$75

$1,561

Provincial taxes

$145

$104

$44

$15

$309

Visitor Spending

$937

$819

$598

$317

$80

$2,752

GDP

$811

$710

$518

$275

$69

$2,384

Provincial taxes

$160

$140

$102

$54

$14

$471

Upside Scenario

Baseline Scenario

Downside Scenario

The recovery of the tourism sector in coming years will vary across destinations. This variation in part will be affected by reliance on travellers from more resilient source markets and the opportunity for gaining more of these travellers due to changing preferences. Provincially, recovery of travel demand will depend on economic factors, the speed with which travel restrictions are lifted, the health of the aviation industry, and the risk aversion of potential travellers. For individual destinations, the pace of recovery will vary depending on the above, as well as on their source market composition.

22 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

LOWER FORT GARRY

For instance, the pace and stability of a destination’s recovery (and, conversely, the risk of a more volatile recovery) can be affected by the extent to which they rely on travellers from more resilient markets, such as domestic and short-haul markets. It is also worthwhile to consider the opportunity for travel demand to increase due to changing travel patterns and preferences, such as residents choosing to take a domestic trip instead of an international holiday. The resilience – likelihood of a stable and quick recovery – of travel demand is likely to be greater for destinations that rely more heavily on domestic and short-haul travellers, due to the following: • Lower cost of travel for domestic and short-haul visitors, given shorter distances and more transportation options. This is especially relevant during a period when household incomes are being squeezed alongside large job losses. • Travel restrictions are almost universally being eased first for domestic trips, and next for short-haul cross-border travel, while restrictions on longer-haul visitors will remain in place for longer. • Uncertainty around transport availability and costs is much greater for long-haul travel, which relies almost exclusively on air travel, while modal switch is an option for short-haul trips. This is particularly relevant given concerns about the financial viability of many airlines. • Other factors may also contribute, such as the availability of travel insurance for longer-haul travellers and a preference for travelling closer to home (as part of heightened risk aversion among travellers).

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 23

S TA K E H O L D E R I N S I G H T S Stakeholder Engagement – Summary Findings Urban/Rural Divide The outbreak of COVID-19 brought the tourism industry to a standstill and the repercussions are being felt by businesses and destinations across the province. However, the impacts of the global pandemic have not been evenly distributed and the recovery paths for business and destinations vary dramatically based on their geography, market segments, and government regulations. Urban destinations such as Winnipeg and businesses which rely heavily on international markets such as operators in Churchill have felt the brunt of COVID-19’s impact. Shifting to a local audience is often not a viable solution for these businesses and therefore require government relief and assistance. The big questions therefore facing the industry is, “Who can survive on local tourism and who can’t?” The answer to this question will dictate to very different recovery paths and strategies. Public Policy Clarity and consistency from government and public officials will be key to the industry’s recovery. Business and operators require an indication of what factors will dictate the public response to the pandemic in order to develop their strategies in a world of uncertainty. Inconsistency in operational restrictions with competing jurisdictions also puts Manitoba at a competitive disadvantage and results in lost business. Other provinces within Canada have allocated significant relief funds to support their tourism industries. If Manitoba is to remain competitive, it will be incumbent upon the provincial government to demonstrate a similar level of support. Finally, the potential loss of businesses within the hospitality and tourism sector represents a significant challenge for Manitoba. It was estimated that up to 70% of hunting and fishing lodges would not survive if they were forced to sacrifice another season without government support. The cost of rebuilding Manitoba’s visitor economy must therefore be considered when advocating for relief funds. Brand & Marketing Restoring consumer confidence and providing assurance to residents and visitors will be the critical challenge from a marketing and messaging perspective. The short-term focus must be appealing to Manitobans to explore their own backyard in order to build confidence in the visitor economy. As visitor confidence builds, Travel Manitoba can begin actively promoting Manitoba to the rest of world. However, it will be essential to maintain a presence in international markets in order to quickly activate efforts in these markets when the opportunity arises. The Manitoba, Canada’s Heart … Beats brand is well positioned to appeal to travellers in the current environment, and the perception of Manitoba as a safe destination with an abundance of outdoor recreation opportunities bodes well for the province. An opportunity also exists to continue to build off the success of Travel Manitoba’s place branding work to help communities, large and small, maximize on their tourism potential. 24 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Residents

Only 35% of Manitobans feel confident they can travel safely in the current environment and roughly nine in ten (89%) say the travel experiences they are seeking have changed as a direct result of COVID-19. Other key findings include: • The majority (85%) of Manitobans said they were likely to take a trip within the province in the next 12 months. • Winnipeg was the preferred destination for 86% of travellers who were planning a trip within the province. • Personal automobile was the preferred mode of transportation for 95% of Manitobans travelling in the next 12 months, demonstrating the “road-trip” market as a low-hanging fruit opportunity. • More than half (56%) of those who were likely to travel by personal car indicated they would be willing to travel more than 500 kilometres (one-way). • One in four (24%) Manitobans supported opening their communities to visitors at the time of the survey, while roughly half (47%) did not.

UsingUsing a scale of 1 (not at all toto 5 5(extremely likely), based basedon onhow howyou you feel today, a scale of 1 (not at likely) all likely) (extremely feel today, Which regions of Manitoba are you likely to likely), visit in the next 12 months? how likely are you to engage in each of the following activities during the next 12 months?* how likely are you to engage in each of the following activities during the next 12 months?* 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60%

86%

85%

60%

56%

53%

40% 40%

49%

48%

36%

25%

20% 20% 0%

0% Winnipeg

Interlake

Take a Trip Within Manitoba

Eastern

Western

Central

Take a Trip Domestically outside Manitoba

Parkland

Northern

Take a Trip Internationally

* Percent who are “Very Likely” and “Extremely Likely”

How Much Do You Agree With The Following Statement? I Support Opening My Community Up To Visitors...

How Much Do You Agree With The Following Statement? I Support Opening My Community Up To Visitors... Support Opening

24%

Don’t Support Opening

47% 31% Neutral

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 25

FLIN FLON

Travel Trade and Meeting/Sport/ Event Planners

Prior to the pandemic, travel trade and event organizers ranked Manitoba’s hospitality culture near the top relative to other parts of Canada. These clients had differing views of Manitoba’s strengths as they look for different factors when choosing a destination. In the 2020 survey, some 75% of clients (travel trade as well as meetings, sports and event organizers) indicated they were familiar with Manitoba and its product offerings and 55% were regularly booking business to the province prior to the pandemic. Other key findings include: • The majority (89%) of clients said they expect to begin rebooking business in the next 12 months, with half expecting to rebook business in the next 6 months. • The attributes that clients believe distinguish Manitoba from other Canadian provinces and make it authentic are mostly related to polar bears, wildlife, untouched wilderness, and the North, which is consistent with the results of the client study conducted as part of the original Provincial Tourism Strategy. • When asked to compare Manitoba to other Canadian leisure destinations, the highest relative scores given by clients were for friendliness, service/hospitality, heritage and history, arts/culture/museums and outdoor recreation. Safety and security ranked 15th prior to the pandemic but ranked 8th in October 2020. • Three of the four lowest ranked destination scores given by clients were associated with transportation and connectivity, with the most common themes related to ease of access and ease of getting around the province. These findings were consistent with the original client survey. • Clients indicated they are spending their time during the pandemic focused on continuing education (i.e., webinars and specialist programs) and rescheduling client bookings.

26 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

2018 Client Survey Results

As part of the development of the original provincial tourism strategy, Travel Trade and Meetings/Sports/ Event planners were surveyed. The positive impression of Manitoba in the trade and events space along with established relationships are expected to support and expedite recovery for the industry. 2018 Travel Trade Survey Highlights • 88% were very satisfied or satisfied with Manitoba packages and itineraries • 64% expected the market demand for Manitoba-based vacations to grow • 64% indicated that the variety of current and future packages and itineraries had increased 2018 Meetings/Sports/Events Survey Highlights • 84% were satisfied or very satisfied with the Manitoba-based meetings/sports events and other group events • 43% indicated that client satisfaction has grown over the last 5 years • 50% expected the market demand for Manitoba-based events to grow over the next 5 years

BAKED EXPECTATIONS

CLEMENTINE

CEDAR AND MAIN

TI-BEAUVILLE

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 27

I N V E S T I N G T O S T I M U L AT E THE ECONOMY Government and industry interventions may represent an opportunity to move towards an upside scenario with quicker recovery. An assessment from Tourism Economics demonstrated that additional promotional funding for Travel Manitoba would provide a much-needed boost to the visitor economy and generate millions of additional spending while supporting hundreds of jobs. Two scenarios were considered: $1 million and $2 million in additional annual promotional spending. Under the $1 million Scenario, additional funding would generate $30 million in additional annual visitor spending, and support $7 million in provincial/local taxes. Over a five-year period this increase would generate $135 million in visitor spending and $30 million in provincial/local taxes while supporting 222 jobs annually. INDIGENOUS DAY LIVE

INN AT THE FORKS

28 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

THERMËA

The $2 million Scenario would generate $56 million in additional annual visitor spending and support $12 million in provincial/local taxes. Over a five-year period, the $2 million Scenario would generate $252 million in visitor spending, which would sustain $55 million in provincial/local taxes and 414 jobs annually.

Funding For Tourism Promotion

The increases estimated here are relatively small compared to the scale of the visitor economy. The $2 million Scenario would provide a 3.4% increase in visitor spending in 2024. Yet, when this type of small increase is applied to a billion-dollar sector, the impact on the local job market and provincial finances become substantial. It is critical that a base funding level for Travel Manitoba is maintained until tourism revenues recover. (see Appendix B for full Tourism Economics report)

$1.2

Return on investment $2.0

$2 MScenario Scenario $2m $1 MScenario Scenario $1m Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario

$1.8 $1.6 $1.4 $1.0 $0.8 $0.6 $0.4 $0.2 $0.0

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

MANITO AHBEE

“The recovery is going to take time, there’s no question. We don’t expect international travel to fully recover until 2025. However, domestic travel and regional travel should recover more quickly. We’re basically at a plateau right now; we’re not going to see any real acceleration and travel gains until the second half of 2021, when — through a combination of policy measures, therapeutics, and a vaccine — we’ll hopefully see some containment of the virus. It’s at that point we will start to see significant recovery.”

Adam Sacks President, Tourism Economics

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 29

Industry Trends Manitoba’s opportunity to build upon its current visitor and tourism revenue base will be influenced now and in the near future by a series of tourism trends that have been identified in developing this Manitoba Tourism Strategy.

30• •Manitoba Manitoba Tourism Strategy 30 Tourism Strategy

LITTLE LIMESTONE LAKE PROVINCIAL PARK

Manitoba Tourism Strategy Manitoba Tourism Strategy • •3131

FESTIVAL DU VOYAGEUR

32 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

DIGITAL MARKETING Acceleration of digital and e-commerce platforms

The necessity of doing business online has made consumers significantly more open to digital offerings and experiences — a shift that marketing executives believe will persist even after the pandemic recedes. This suggests digital marketing efforts will command a greater share of total marketing spending moving forward. At the same time, e-commerce is projected to grow by nearly 20% in 2020 and data from IBM’s U.S. Retail Index indicates the pandemic has accelerated the shift away from physical stores to digital shopping by roughly five years.

Artificial intelligence offers increased personalization

The goal of personalized, real-time, digital connectivity with travel and other consumer brands is much more of a reality than it was two years ago. The big shift has been the growing sophistication of artificial intelligence (AI) and its more complex subset, machine learning. AI is the personalization engine powering digital conversion across all industries, giving brands the ability to deliver the right message to the right customer at the right time to drive purchase behaviour. Some of the primary use cases for AI in travel include destination and product search, social media targeting, the sharing economy, conversational commerce (voice and text chat), augmented reality, autonomous systems, live inventory management, dynamic pricing, and all kinds of hyper-personalized brand messaging.

SHIFT TO LOCALHOOD AND LOCAL AUDIENCES Destinations have traditionally relied on their iconic imagery and popular experiences to market themselves to leisure and business travellers. Looking ahead, the next generation of destination marketing is based on building community between locals and visitors around different passion points. The idea is that both travellers and residents can learn from each other to help them achieve their personal and/or professional aspirations by sharing their collective knowledge. As such, the destination becomes more than a physical environment with a lot of tourist experiences for travellers to enjoy. Instead, the destination is positioned as a living social platform to connect like-minded visitors and locals.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 33

RIDING MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK

34 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

FUTURE OF EXPERIENCES Travellers seek transformational experiences

Travellers today are increasingly drawn to travel as a form of self-actualization and personal transformation and growth. They want more than a simple visit to a new destination or days spent relaxing on a beach. Instead, the travel they are seeking is an experience of the world that goes deep — one that changes them in ways they may not even be aware of. With personal growth now a central goal of many travel experiences, brands, companies, and destinations operating in the travel and tourism space can thrive by helping travellers enrich their inner lives as they explore outwardly.

Health and safety are essential

Health and COVID-19 related safety are front and centre in the minds of travellers. Communicating what steps your destination is taking is important, but consistency and execution is even more critical. Customers will still have reservations about starting to travel again and will need an extra level of assurance beyond a marketing message. For example, a major airline recently turned a flight around when passengers declined to wear a mask — it is this level of authenticity that customers are looking for in order to feel safe again.

Shift toward outdoor experiences

In a recent McKinsey survey on how behaviours are changing because of COVID-19, 18 percent say they are spending more time outdoors, where transmission rates of the virus are believed to be lower. Retailers in the outdoor travel and sports and recreation sectors saw a big boost in spending as people stayed close to home and tried to do more open-air activities. Manitoba has seen a 15 percent increase in sales of recreational fishing licences in 2020 alone. This shift towards a greater demand for outdoor experiences is expected to continue and will shape the destination selection process for consumers.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 35

WINNIPEG FOLK FESTIVAL

36 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR Long road ahead to rebuild consumer confidence

Canada’s quick initial rebound in consumer confidence is showing signs of slowing, suggesting there’s a long road ahead for a full economic recovery from the pandemic. This lack of consumer confidence has considerable impacts, most notably: •

•

People are postponing purchase decisions in many categories due to uncertainty. This will continue after the immediate threat dissipates. A wait-and-see mentality will reign and will affect travel purchase decisions. Noise is a problem. There is a lot of information about COVID-19, and speculation, therefore the ability to cut through the clutter and restore consumer confidence with messaging is hindered. The familiar will be more valuable. Established brands that handle the crisis well will rise in stature and value. Risk will be less tolerable to most people. Return travel to familiar destinations will drive visitation in the short-term.

Money-back guarantees and discounts can drive bookings

For travellers, the coronavirus epidemic is spreading fear and uncertainty — and a desire for discounts and refunds. A Google Canada Survey showed money-back guarantees and discounts were the most important things travel companies could offer today to help consumers book a holiday within the next year.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 37

TOUT POUR LA MUSIQUE

38 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

EVENTS: RETHINKING BUSINESS MODELS AND SUCCESS FACTORS The value propositions of the current event and association models were created decades ago but they haven’t evolved in line with how people — especially younger, diverse generations and audiences — want to gather, engage, learn, and share content today. The impacts of COVID-19 on the events industry are accelerating the need to explore new business models and success factors. Therefore, industry leaders are examining new approaches that can deliver success in both an in-person and virtual environment while diversifying audiences, taking into account generational and psychographic shifts.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 39

FESTIVAL DU VOYAGEUR

40 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

EVOLVING BUSINESS MODELS Today, a growing number of destination leaders are advocating for a stronger role in “destination management,” which speaks to the industry investing time and resources in community-driven destination development and expanding their networks among a wider breadth of local organizations outside the hospitality and tourism industry. This greater emphasis on destination management and community building is still very much aligned with the traditional mandates for destination organizations, in terms of driving higher visitor spend and new business development in the region.

Greater involvement in advocacy

The most progressive organizations today are positioning themselves as a shared community value, with an integral role in uplifting a greater scope of different audiences — both local and global. Community advocacy has never been more critical to help onboard residents as destination ambassadors.

Stronger collaboration and organizational alignment

Public policy has a big impact on destinations and tourism organizations. Government policies at federal, provincial, and local levels can have a profound impact on the competitiveness of a destination. This includes critical decisions about how much to fund tourism promotion and development efforts. Destination leaders are prioritizing greater collaboration and alignment with local government, key industry stakeholders, civic leaders, and the non-industry community. They are increasingly building coalitions among the public and private sectors around a shared vision for the future of the destination, which prioritizes inclusivity, diversity, advanced mobility and connectivity, workforce development, and higher quality of life.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 41

Vision The following vision responds to all key learnings and inputs gathered throughout the process of updating the Manitoba Tourism Strategy. The vision reflects the aspirations of all stakeholders to maximize Manitoba’s opportunities as a key travel destination now and in the future. This vision is founded on the need for progressive partnerships, innovative approaches and industry-wide collaboration.

42 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

DUCK MOUNTAIN PROVINCIAL PARK

Manitoba is a must-visit four season destination generating sustainable economic growth by delivering inspiring & authentic experiences in its unique urban, rural & wild settings

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 43

IG FIELD

Targets “While we would certainly not have wished for this, we can view the setbacks of COVID-19 as an opportunity and a challenge: to adjust our focus, clarify our priorities, and then work together to rebuild better than before.”

Colin Ferguson President & CEO Travel Manitoba 44 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Successful execution of the strategic initiatives identified in this plan has the potential to mitigate economic and business losses in Manitoba’s tourism industry as a result of COVID-19 and generate transformative economic benefits for the province. Achieving these results will mean rebuilding the visitor economy to 2019 levels by 2024 and generating sustainable long-term growth for Manitoba’s visitor economy with a target of $2.5 billion in annual spending generated by 12.8 million visitors in 2030. This equates to roughly 50% growth in visitor spending levels in 2030 when compared to 2019.

2019

2030

10.6

12.8

million visitors

R O F VISIT

$1.6

$2.5

billion spending

SIT

O R S P E N DI

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 45

NORTHERN MANITOBA TRAPPERS’ FESTIVAL

Goals & Initiatives 46 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

A series of goals and initiatives were designed for the Manitoba Tourism Strategy to support the delivery of Manitoba’s future vision. These goals and initiatives provide a focused framework of tangible actions and desired outcomes for stakeholders to collaborate on and embrace together. Each goal and initiative was carefully crafted, and then validated and prioritized by provincial stakeholders. The goals in the original Provincial Tourism Strategy have been revised and sharpened to focus on the immediate challenges we face as a sector. This has enabled us to identify those areas where we need to re-orient and re-focus efforts to respond to the financial and economic impacts of COVID-19.

Original Strategic Goals 1. Lead Brand & Market Positioning 2. Invest in Destination & Experience Development 3. Improve Transportation & Connectivity 4. Foster Collaboration 5. Build Public Support for Tourism Goals #2 and #3 have been combined into a new goal of “Advance Destination Management” which reflects a stronger role in broader destination management. Goal #5 has also been broadened to reflect the understanding that government support will be equally, if not more important as the industry navigates recovery from the global pandemic.

New Strategic Goals Lead Brand & Market Positioning

Advance Destination Management

Foster Collaboration

Build Support for Tourism

Each goal has a corresponding set of specific initiatives that have been created to directly address gaps or leverage key opportunities in all goal categories.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 47

LEAD BRAND & MARKET POSITIONING

The Manitoba, Canada’s Heart … Beats brand resonates strongly as the province’s national and international signature. Coupled with compelling imagery of polar bears, belugas, northern lights, and other distinctive provincial experiences, the brand clearly differentiates and positions Manitoba in the visitor marketplace. The provincial brand has helped support growth in both market awareness and visitation and has also been wholly embraced and endorsed by the travel trade as a key selling tool to build even more visitor traffic for the province. The update of this Tourism Strategy creates the opportunity to expand beyond these successes. The Manitoba, Canada’s Heart … Beats brand can continue to be used to position Manitoba as an attractive destination and highlight and showcase additional destination differentiators and authentic, transformative experiences that can drive significant market demand. These opportunities include: Indigenous and Francophone events and cultural exchanges; embracing and featuring Manitoba’s world-class winter experiences; and presenting the signature fishing, paddling and lakeside relaxation experiences offered by Manitoba’s unique river systems and lakes. At the same time, the expansion of the successful province-wide community place branding program must be strongly supported. Emerging demand-generating locations and experiences throughout the province can attract additional visitation with a compelling place brand and a new, focused destination profile that aligns with and is supported by the provincial brand.

48 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Significant progress has been made on several important brand and marketing initiatives identified in the original strategy including : • To date, eleven place brands have been created across the province: The Pas/OCN, Clear Lake, Gimli, Brandon, Saint Boniface, Neepawa, Portage la Prairie, Morden/Winkler, Flin Flon, Thompson, and Whiteshell Provincial Park. • Travel Manitoba has been working closely with Economic Development Winnipeg/Tourism Winnipeg on the development of a new Winnipeg place brand. • In October 2020, 40% of Manitobans correctly identified Manitoba, Canada’s Heart … Beats as the provincial tourism slogan, edging out “Friendly Manitoba” for the first time. • Significantly more Manitobans say Travel Manitoba ads have improved their opinion of Manitoba in 2020, compared to 2015 (48% in 2020 and 40% in 2015). • Travel Manitoba utilized the Environics PRIZM tool to identify target customer segments and restructure the targeting strategy. • Travel Manitoba entered a partnership with Creator House, a U.S. influencer marketing agency to bring 14 influencers to Winnipeg. • Travel Manitoba continued to develop blog, video and social content in 2019–20 showcasing Manitoba’s unique Indigenous, Francophone, winter and water-based experiences.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 49

LEAD BR AND & MARKET POSITIONING

Key Initiatives & Implementation INITIATIVE

TIMING S

LEAD L

Develop consumer health and safety messaging in relation to COVID-19 to restore confidence and provide assurance to visitors

Travel Manitoba

Continue the Manitoba, Canada’s Heart … Beats brand nationally and internationally as the provincial signature

Travel Manitoba

Build on Manitoba, Canada’s Heart … Beats brand to stimulate recovery and showcase Manitoba’s: i. Indigenous, Francophone and other cultural experiences; ii. Unique and vibrant four seasons, including Canada’s home of exceptional and world-class winter experiences; iii. World-class water-based experiences such as fishing, paddling and lakeside relaxation; and iv. Showcase diversity of wilderness and wildlife experiences

Travel Manitoba

Support ongoing place branding initiatives throughout the province to elevate profile and market position, and to strengthen and align with the provincial brand

Travel Manitoba

Support Winnipeg and Brandon as Manitoba’s leading national meetings, conventions, festivals and events destinations

Travel Manitoba

Leverage the opportunity to acknowledge Manitoba’s 150th anniversary in 2020 by promoting new assets and experiences in 2021 in Winnipeg and rural communities (e.g., Canada’s Diversity Gardens, Qaumajuq, Royal Aviation Museum of Western Canada etc.)

Travel Manitoba

Support Churchill as Manitoba’s leading international destination for wilderness and wildlife experiences

Travel Manitoba

Develop ongoing brand alliances with global product players to elevate Manitoba destinations

Travel Manitoba

Engage Manitoba’s new Canadians to capitalize on their key connections as tourism ambassadors to their countries of origin

Travel Manitoba

*Note: S- Short Term (< 1 year); M-Medium Term (1-3 years); L- Long Term (> 3 years)

50 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

LEAD BR AND & MARKET POSITIONING

Key Performance Indicators

JOURNEY TO CHURCHILL

• COVID-19 safety messaging implemented where appropriate. • Reach and engagement of marketing initiatives under the Manitoba, Canada’s Heart … Beats brand, including promotion of new assets and experiences, place brand communities, Churchill, events, and festivals (blog and website engagement, social media impressions, video views, newsletter click-through rate). • Development of content featuring cultural, winter, water-based, and wilderness experiences (number of articles/photos/videos/social posts developed). • Number of convention, meeting, and event bids secured. • Number of brand alliances developed. • Development and execution of engagement strategy targeting new Canadians. • Travel Manitoba’s Place Branding program will place emphasis on ensuring place brand communities are aware of business resources and networks that are available to support the development and expansion of tourism experiences that meet emerging market demand.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 51

ADVANCE DESTINATION MANAGEMENT

The original Provincial Tourism Strategy included two distinct goals, to “Invest in Destination & Experience Development” and “Improve Transportation & Connectivity.” The two goals have been combined into a new goal of “Advance Destination Management” which reflects a broader role in destination management. Today, a growing number of destination leaders are advocating for a stronger role in “destination management,” which speaks to the industry investing time and resources in community-driven destination development and expanding their networks among a wider breadth of local organizations outside the hospitality and tourism industry. This greater emphasis on destination management and community building is still very much aligned with the traditional mandates for destination organizations, in terms of driving higher visitor spend and new business development in the region. It will be critical to continue to develop Manitoba’s signature experiences and adapt businesses and experiences to be successful in the ‘new normal’. Key differentiators include winter, Indigenous, Francophone, urban, wilderness, and park-based and water-based activities. These types of demand-generating experiences amplify a deep sense of place and destination DNA that enables the province to further grow its distinctive presence in the marketplace.

52 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Significant progress has been made on several important destination management initiatives identified in the original strategy including: • • • • • •

Completion of a hunting and fishing economic impact study. Launch of a province-wide event attraction competitive analysis. Launch of an evaluation of Manitoba’s provincial parks. Launch of a Francophone economic impact study. Travel Manitoba provided support to a new northern lights operator in Churchill. Travel Manitoba has worked with Northern hunting and fishing lodges to improve their marketing capacity and skills. • Significant progress has been made in partnership with the Indigenous Tourism Association of Canada in assessing the tourism-readiness levels of authentic tourism experiences in Manitoba. In addition to supporting the development of new and existing Indigenous tourism experiences, the Manitoba Indigenous Tourism Strategy has also advanced priorities to build leadership capacity, to lead marketing excellence and to advance partnerships to grow the Indigenous tourism industry. • A preliminary examination of wayfinding best practices and associated provincial and municipal regulations has been completed.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 53

ADVANCE DESTINATION MANAGEMENT

Key Initiatives & Implementation INITIATIVE

TIMING S

LEAD L

Ensure the tourism industry has access to advice and training on intelligence, best practices, business case formulation, market readiness, business development, and funding sources

Travel Manitoba, MTEC

Increase the number of market and export ready tourism businesses in Manitoba, with consideration of the following world-class demand generating experiences and attractions: i. Experiences: Winter, Indigenous, Francophone, Water-Based (Fishing and Paddling), Human Rights ii. Attractions: Canada’s Diversity Gardens, Royal Aviation Museum of Western Canada, Qaumajuq, Canadian Fossil Discovery Centre, Brandon’s Riverbank Discovery Centre, Thompson’s Boreal Discovery Centre

Travel Manitoba

Advance initiatives that improve the visitor experience in Manitoba’s provincial and national parks

Travel Manitoba, Manitoba Parks & Parks Canada

Develop a province-wide events strategy that maximizes the potential of Winnipeg, Brandon, and rural destinations to host meetings, conventions, and major events

Travel Manitoba

Develop province-wide directional signage and wayfinding standards and enhancements within and between communities

Travel Manitoba

Advance the improvement of direct air access: i. Leverage the Winnipeg Richardson International Airport’s 24-hour operating capacity ii. Address impacts of reduced routes resulting from COVID-19 pandemic

All Airports

Advance the improvement of transportation and connectivity between communities, including: i. Reliable cellular service on major highways and high-speed WiFi in communities and parks ii. Improve transportation and roads between tourism destination areas.

Manitoba Chambers of Commerce

*Note: S- Short Term (< 1 year); M-Medium Term (1-3 years); L- Long Term (> 3 years)

54 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

ADVANCE DESTINATION MANAGEMENT

Key Performance Indicators

STEEP ROCK

• Development of web-based business development resource portal. • Number of market-ready and export-ready tourism businesses. • Completion of Evaluating Manitoba’s Provincial Parks study. Improve visitor experience in national and provincial parks. • Completion of Manitoba Event Attraction Competitive Analysis. Development and launch of Manitoba Events Strategy. • Completion of Tourism Wayfinding Business Case Assessment and implementation of signage program. • Number of direct flights to/in Manitoba. • Number of communication initiatives on transportation and connectivity issues.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 55

FOSTER COLLABORATION

Responding to the challenges of COVID-19 demands a whole new way of thinking on how stakeholder organizations should interact and partner on initiatives to realize the collective opportunity. As tourism is such a key economic driver for the province, a whole-of-government approach is necessary for the industry to remain competitive, maximize visitor experiences, and achieve growth. All government departments and agencies must have a common collaborative approach with the tourism sector to enable critical province-wide destination improvements to areas such as roads, wayfinding, digital connectivity, park season extensions, and park amenities and services. Other key stakeholder partnerships must also be re-examined, re-invigorated, and in some cases re-invented, to enable and accelerate successful tourism and economic development outcomes for Manitoba. To ensure the survival and resiliency of Manitoba’s visitor economy, it is incumbent upon all levels of government, industry representatives, and other stakeholders to foster a new spirit of collaboration and innovation in moving forward together.

56 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Significant progress has been made on several important initiatives to foster collaboration identified in the original strategy including: • Travel Manitoba and Tourism Winnipeg have strengthened their partnership and are working together on the development of a Winnipeg brand and marketing initiatives. • Travel Manitoba continues to build relationships with government departments and crown corporations at national, provincial, and municipal levels to encourage a whole-of-government approach to tourism as an economic sector.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 57

FOSTER COLL ABOR ATION

Key Initiatives & Implementation INITIATIVE

TIMING S

LEAD L

Travel Manitoba and Tourism Winnipeg to continue to collaborate in marketing, branding, market research, and performance measurement

Travel Manitoba & Tourism Winnipeg

Advance a new approach for delivering regional tourism

Travel Manitoba

Ensure a whole-of-government approach to tourism as a key economic sector, and maximize alignment between all provincial government departments and agencies

Manitoba Economic Development and Training

Ensure a whole-of-industry approach to advocacy

Travel Manitoba and Manitoba Chambers of Commerce

Leverage Destination Canada to drive future opportunities for Manitoba

Travel Manitoba

Prioritize diversity and inclusivity in tourism development and promotion

Travel Manitoba

*Note: S- Short Term (< 1 year); M-Medium Term (1-3 years); L- Long Term (> 3 years)

58 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

FOSTER COLL ABOR ATION

Key Performance Indicators

CRANBERRY PORTAGE

• Number of collaborative initiatives with Tourism Winnipeg. • Implementation of new approach for delivering regional tourism. • Number of provincial government representatives participating in relevant projects. Travel Manitoba’s continued recognition as a strategic partner with Manitoba’s Economic Growth Plan. Consistent priorities identified within ministerial mandate letters. • Number of key initiatives where sector associations are engaged. Number of surveys, focus groups and consultations seeking industry input. • Number of Destination Canada programs/initiatives in which Travel Manitoba participates. • Number of industry participants in diversity and inclusiveness events and training programs.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 59

BUILD SUPPORT FOR TOURISM

The bold vision in this strategy can only be realized if provincial and municipal governments recognize tourism’s key role in economic recovery and Manitobans fully embrace tourism’s ability to positively transform their communities and enrich their quality of life. Many Manitobans simply do not appreciate the significant role tourism plays in creating sustainable jobs, and in laying the foundation for broader economic development initiatives such as infrastructure investment, and talent retention and acquisition. Residents are also not universally aware of the key role they also play in welcoming and assisting visitors, and their impact in helping to deliver transformative, authentic, unique, and local visitor experiences. Businesses, universities, and colleges, and community organizations and institutions, also need to be rallied to become strong ambassadors of the destination, continuing to promote the province to colleagues and organizations nationally and internationally. The strategy needs to be aggressively promoted across Manitoba to ensure broad understanding of the power and positivity of tourism, cement maximum support and buy-in, and mobilize Manitobans to become true destination champions.

60 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Significant progress has been made on several important initiatives to build support for tourism identified in the original strategy including: • In March 2020, 57% of Manitobans indicated that the tourism industry is “very important to the economic wellbeing of Manitoba”. In October 2020, this had risen to 66%. • The development of research tools and methods that monitor Manitoba’s performance as a tourism destination. • Travel Manitoba implemented several initiatives across the province, with a heightened focus on Northern Manitoba, designed to increase public awareness of the value of tourism in their region.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 61

BUILD SUPPORT FOR TOURISM

Key Initiatives & Implementation INITIATIVE

TIMING S

LEAD L

Create a public awareness campaign on the province-wide value of tourism and Manitobans’ role and connection to tourism, including impact on job creation and retention, residential tax savings, innovation and education, infrastructure improvements, and quality of life

Manitoba Chambers of Commerce and Travel Manitoba

Ensure that provincial and municipal governments recognize and regularly communicate tourism’s key role in economic recovery

Manitoba Chambers of Commerce and Travel Manitoba

Build awareness of tourism as a key employer and dynamic career

Manitoba Tourism Education Council and Travel Manitoba

Advocate for improved access to cost affordable insurance for tourism sector

Manitoba Chambers of Commerce and Travel Manitoba

Advocate for regulation and taxing of the sharing economy

Manitoba Chambers of Commerce and Travel Manitoba

*Note: S- Short Term (< 1 year); M-Medium Term (1-3 years); L- Long Term (> 3 years)

62 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

BUILD SUPPORT FOR TOURISM

Key Performance Indicators

WINKLER

• Awareness of public awareness campaign and the role tourism plays in supporting the economy as measured through a resident survey. • Number of communication tools developed and communicated with government (surveys, reports) on COVID-19 impacts. Number/frequency of meetings with government to communicate COVID-19 impacts. • Number of students and businesses enrolled in tourism training and post-secondary education programs in Manitoba. • Number of communication tools developed (surveys, reports) on insurance and the sharing economy. Number of meetings with government to communicate insurance and sharing economy impacts.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 63

WINNIPEG ART GALLERY

Next Steps & Performance Measurement “COVID-19 may have changed our path, but the way forward is clear. Delivering on the initiatives of the Manitoba Tourism Strategy is key to rebuilding a solid base for tourism’s short-term recovery and long-term growth, providing benefits for all Manitobans.”

Chuck Davidson President & CEO Manitoba Chambers of Commerce

64 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

The Manitoba Tourism Strategy is championed by a Steering Committee comprised of stakeholders accountable for key initiatives in the strategy and others who can help accelerate achievement of goals and initiatives. The role of the Steering Committee is to support the efforts of the strategy partners — Travel Manitoba, Manitoba Chambers of Commerce, and the Government of Manitoba — in successful implementation of the strategy by providing input into strategy renewal and reporting. Strategy partners will consider expanding Steering Committee membership to better reflect the tourism industry from a sector and diversity perspective. The Manitoba Tourism Strategy will continue to be supported by a measurement and monitoring system to ensure the strategy’s enduring relevance and success over time. Each partner will review the strategy annually, with updates or changes made as needed. A progress report will be developed annually and shared with industry and government stakeholders.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 65

A PPE N D I X A Steering Committee & Project Team

66 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

STEERING COMMITTEE Manitoba Tourism Strategy Steering Committee

Stuart Murray, Co-Chair, Travel Manitoba Chuck Davidson, Co-Chair, Manitoba Chambers of Commerce Tara Stefansson, Lazy Bear Expeditions Paul Conchatre, Birdtail Waterfowl Inc. Margaret Redmond, Assiniboine Park Conservancy Ginette Lavack, Centre culturel franco-manitoban Dayna Spiring, Economic Development Winnipeg Gary Bell, Calm Air Drew Fisher, RBC Convention Centre Claudette Leclerc, Manitoba Museum Jason Gobeil, Manitoba Indigenous Tourism Association Philip Houde, Manitoba Economic Development Office Barbara Barnett-Fontaine, Manitoba Infrastructure Veronica Dyck, Manitoba Sport, Culture and Heritage Rob Nedotiafko, Manitoba Conservation and Climate

Travel Manitoba Staff

Colin Ferguson, President & CEO Brigitte Sandron, Senior Vice President, Strategy and Business Development Jackie Tenuta, Director, Strategy & Development Mark Remoquillo, Senior Graphic Designer

MMGY NextFactor

Paul Ouimet, President & CEO Jim McCaul, Senior Vice President, Destination Stewardship Greg Oates, Senior Vice President, Innovation Cheryll Girard, Project Team Coordinator

Tourism Economics

Geoff Lacher, Senior Economist

InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Jordan Young, Manager Brooks Lai, Graphic Designer

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 67

A PPE N D I X B Tourism Economics Study

68 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

COVID -19’s Impact on Manitoba’s Visitor Economy COVID -19’s Impact on Manitoba’s Visitor Economy December 2020

Prepared for:

Travel Manitoba December 2020 Prepared for:

Travel Manitoba

WWW.TOURISMECONOMICS.COM

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 69

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION

STUDY OVERVIEW STUDY OVERVIEW

The visitor economy is an integral part of the Manitoba economy. Visitors generate significant economic benefits for households, businesses, and government and The visitor economy is an integral part of the alike Manitoba represent Visitors a criticalgenerate driver ofsignificant Manitoba’seconomic future. benefits economy.

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for households, businesses, and government alike and This reporta highlights key of areas of the visitor economy that represent critical driver Manitoba’s future. are under stress during the COVID-19 pandemic, and analyzes thehighlights potentialkey impact onofManitoba’s sector This report areas the visitor travel economy that and economy as aduring whole.the COVID-19 pandemic, and are under stress

vulnerable, and estimate the impact of additional funding for The analysis consists of four main parts: Travel Manitoba. 1. An overview of Manitoba's visitor economy; The analysis consists of four main parts: 2. A review of the current financial stress in the hotel sector; 1. An overview of Manitoba's visitor economy; 3. An examination of the impact and particular vulnerability of 2. A review of the current financial stress in the hotel sector; hunting and fishing lodges; 3. An examination of the impact and particular vulnerability of 4. An examination of the impact and particular vulnerability of hunting and fishing lodges; Churchill as a destination; and 4. An examination of the impact and particular vulnerability of 5. An analysis of the potential benefits of increasing funding for Churchill as a destination; and Travel Manitoba. 5. An analysis of the potential benefits of increasing funding for Two appendices provide a meta-analysis of destination marketing Travel Manitoba. return on investment, and an explanation of the rationale for Two appendices provide a meta-analysis of destination marketing destination marketing.

analyzes the potential impact on Manitoba’s travel sector This economy analysis draws on the following data sources: and as a whole. • StatCan: onon thethe Canadian economy and tourism This analysisdata draws following data sources: sector. ••

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••

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•

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•

••

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•

MNP: a study on Manitoba hotel sector during the pandemic.

return on investment, and an explanation of the rationale for destination marketing. 3 3

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NIT NR TO RD OU DC UT CIT OIN ON

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•

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•

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•

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TR: • STR: lodging lodging performance performance data,data, including including roomroom demand, demand, omroom rates,rates, occupancy, occupancy, and room and room revenue. revenue.

•

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•

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•NP: MNP: a study a study on Manitoba on Manitoba hotelhotel sector sector during during the the 70 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy andemic. pandemic.

Data sources consulted

employment and income

injection of spending into the local economy.

This supports a relative proportion of jobs,

This means that three distinct types of impact:

wages, taxes, and GDP within each sector.

direct, indirect, and induced are considered.

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

. Indireeconomy ct Impacts: Each directly This analysis of Manitoba’s2visitor 1. affected Direct Impacts :

How visitor spending generates employment and income

considers the downstream effects of this

ECONOMIC IMPACTS visitor spending generates ThisHow analysis of Manitoba’s visitor economy employment and income analyzes spending by visitors and also

sector also purchases goods and services analyzes spending by visitors and also economic value as inputs (e.g. food wholesalers, utilities)

sectors (e.g. recr

into production. These impacts are called This analysis of Manitoba’s visitor economy 1. Direct Impacts : Visitors create direct a r injection of spending into the local economy. This supports indirect impacts. analyzes spending by visitors also distinct types of impact: economic value within wages, a discreettaxes, group an of This means thatand three . I n d u c e d I m p a c t s : Lastly, the induced 3 1. Direconsiders ct Impactthe s : Visitors create direct downstream effects of this sectors (e.g. recreation, transportation).

direct, indirect, and induced are considered.

impact is generated whena employees economic value within a into discreet groupeconomy. of direct Imof pajobs cts 2. Inproportion injection of spending the local This supports relative whose wages are generated whether considers the downstream effects of this sectors (e.g. recreation, transportation). This means that three distinct types of impact: wages, taxes, and GDPsector within each alsosector. purc This analysis of Manitoba’s visitor economy 1 . Dsupports irect Impaarelative cts : Visitors create of direct directly or indirectly by visitors, spend injection of spending into the local economy. This proportion jobs, direct, indirect, and induced are considered. inputs (e.g. fo directly affected 2. Indirect Impacts: Eachas spending by visitors andofalso economic value within a discreet group of those wages in the local economy. Thisanalyzes means that three distinct types impact: wages, taxes, and GDP within each sector. sector also purchases goods and services into production. considers downstream of this sectors (e.g. recreation, transportation). direct, indirect,the and induced areeffects considered. 2. Indirect Impacts: Each directly affected as inputs (e.g. food wholesalers, injection of spending into the local economy. This supports a relative proportion of jobs, indirect utilities) impacts sector also purchases goods and services into production. These impacts are called This means that three distinct types of impact: wages, taxes, and GDP within each sector. How visitor spending generates as inputs (e.g. food wholesalers, utilities) indirect impacts. 3. Induced Impact How visitorandspending generates direct, indirect, induced are considered. employment and income . Iproduction. ndirect ImpaThese cts: Each directly affected 2 into impacts are called How visitor spending generates impact is genera employment and income the induced 3. Induced Impacts: Lastly, sector also purchases goods and services indirect impacts. employment and income whose wages ar impact is generated when employees as inputs (e.g. food wholesalers, utilities) 3. Induced Impacts: Lastly, the induced whose wages are generated whether directly or indire into production. These impacts are called Visitor spending flows through the economy and impact is generated when employees directly or indirectly by visitors, spend indirect impacts. those wages in t ito thgrhoumguhlttihpeleecchoannonm are generated whether gVeinse rartsepsebnedninegfitfslotw hrsou eyls.andwhose wages those wages local economy. TOin TAthe L IM PA C TS DIRECT SPENDING V ghultthipeleecco . Induor ceindirectly d Impactsby : Lastly, thespend induced geisniteorrastepsenbdeinnegfiftlsow thsroth urgohum hn ao nm neylsa.nd3directly visitors, T O T A L I M P A C TS DIRECT SPENDING I-O models are particularly effective because they generates benefits through multiple channels. impact is generated when employees T O T A L I M P A C TS DIRE CT SPlocal ENDeconomy. ING those wages in the Accommodation I-O models arethree particularly effective calculate these levels of impact –because direct, they 4 4 whose wages are generated whether B2B goods & Supply chain Production Sales I-O models are particularly effective because they Accommodation calculate these three–levels of impact – direct, indirect, and induced for a broad set of indicators. services purchased effects B2B goods & Supply chain Production Sales Accommodation directly or indirectly by visitors, spend calculateand these three –levels impact indirect, for a of broad set–ofdirect, indicators. Food & beverage services purchased effects These include induced the following: INDIRECT IM PAC TS & B2B goods Supply chain Production Sales those wages the local economy. indirect, and induced – for a broad set of indicators. services purchased effects Food in & beverage These include the following: INDIRECT IMPACTS Jobs GDP • Spending Food & beverage These include the following: INDIRECT IMPACTS Retail Jobs GDP • Spending • GDP Retail Jobs GDP • Spending • GDP Retail • Wages Income Household Entertainment/rec Wages Jobs • GDP effect consumption • Wages Income Household Entertainment/rec Wages Jobs •• Employment effect INDUCED IMconsumption P ACTS Wages Income Household Entertainment/rec Wages Jobs • Employment Local transportation effectINDUCED IM consumption PACTS • Federal Taxes • Employment Taxes Taxes Local transportation INDUCED IMPACTS • Federal Taxes Local transportation Taxes Taxes • Provincial Taxes • Federal Taxes Air transportation Taxes Taxes • Provincial Taxes Air transportation •• Municipal Taxes Provincial Taxes Air transportation • Municipal Taxes • Municipal Taxes

ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS

5 5

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 71

MANITOBA’S MIA AN OBB A S NOMY M TTO V S IN TIIIO R EA C’’’S O M A N T O B A S VIISSIITTO O R EEC CO ON NO OM MYY V R Economic impacts Forecast scenarios V ISITO R ECONOMY Economicimpacts impacts Economic Economic impacts

Tootuarlisvm f sMaasnsitoocbia’tsed T isitisorascpreuncdiainl gpalortso se saVacID cruru lpp fMiM T uu sism nniitlioltobbaa’s’s eTco nrtiroh w itoh emyCi.siO -c1cia9ial p aaa nrtrdtoeofm caaw T o u r i s m i s a c r u c i a l p a r t o f M a nitoba’s e c o n o m y . e c o n o m y . amount to over $1 billion. economy.

Thiscreated section three will review the scope We scenarios (basedofon Thissection section will review thescope scope This will the ofofand Manitoba’s visitor economy, its historical possible paths forreview virus containment This section will review the scope of Manitoba’s visitor economy, its historical Manitoba’s visitor economy, historical performance, and its forecasted growth. economic recovery) for visitorits spending

Manitoba’s visitor economy, historical performance, andits itsforecasted forecasted growth. performance, and growth. during the recovery the its pandemic. The visitor economyfrom supports 20,700 full performance, and its forecasted growth. The visitor economy supports 20,700 fullwill The economy supports 20,700 full time jobs and $310 million in provincial In thevisitor Baseline Scenario, visitor spending The visitor economy supports 20,700 full time jobsand and $310million million provincial time jobs $310 ininprovincial government It represents 2% of not recover torevenue. 2019 levels until 2024, and

time jobs and $310 million in provincial government revenue. It represents 2%ofofor government revenue. represents Manitoba’s economy ifItmeasured by2% GDP, total losses will amount to $1.8 billion. government revenue. It represents 2% of oror Manitoba’s economy measuredby byGDP, GDP, Manitoba’s economy ififmeasured 3% if measured by jobs. Manitoba’s economy if measured by GDP, or 3%ififmeasured measured byjobs. jobs. 3% by Note that these figures do not include the full 3% if measured by jobs. Notethat that thesefigures figures donot notinclude includethe thefull full Note these do impact of restaurants, transportation, hotels, Note that these figures do not include the full impact restaurants, transportation, hotels, impact restaurants, transportation, hotels, etc., butofof only the impacts of visitor spending impact ofonly restaurants, hotels, etc.,but but only theimpacts impacts visitor spending etc., the ofofvisitor (defined by StatCan as transportation, spending byspending an etc., but only the impacts of visitor spending (defined by StatCan spending by an place (defined by asasspending an individual 40StatCan km or more one wayby from

7 11 77 7

M AN ITOasBspending A’Sby an (defined by40 StatCan individual 40 kmoutside moreof one way fromplace place individual km orormore one from of residence and their normal M A IIkmT O BBEofA ’way M AN N Toutside O A ’S S V I S I T O C O N O MY individual 40and orR more one way from place of residence and outside of their normal of residence their normal behavior). M A N I T O B A ’ S of residence outside of C their normal V IISSIITTandO R N behavior). V O R EE CO O NO OM MYY behavior). Historical growth V ISITOR ECONOMY behavior). Historical Historicalgrowth growth Historical growth

Eicsoitnoor m ofatn oiutoribsa m, tin V spicenim dipnagcitns M hrM eeansicto eb narios Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full time equivalents Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 imppaacctstsoof ftotouurirsismmininMMaannitiotobbaa EEccoonnoommicicim 2019 Economy 2020 2021 2022 2023Tourism's 2024 Share 2025 Visitor Total Economy Dollar figures millions, jobs are time equivalents Dollar figures iniin millions, equivalents E c o n o m i c m pactsjobs of are to ufull rfull istime m in Manitoba Upside Scenario Visitor Spending $1,628

Visitor Economy TotalEconomy Economy Tourism's Tourism'sShare Share Visitor Total Dollar in millions, jobs areEconomy full time equivalents Visit orfigures Spending $1,628 $863 $1,225 $1,523 $1,710 $1,828 $1,970

VisitorSpending Spending $1,628 Visitor Business sales Visitor$1,628 Economy Total Economy Losses $765 $404 $105 -- Tourism's -- Share -Baseline Scenario Direct $1,628 Visitor Spending Businesssales sales Business Visit or Spending $1,628 $3,171 $780 $1,021 $1,368 $1,541 $1,653 $1,791 Total Directsales $1,628 Direct $1,628 Business Losses $849 $607 $260 $87 --Total $3,171 Total $3,171 GDP Direct Scenario $1,628 Downside Direct $637 Total Visit or Spending $1,628 $3,171 $691 $809 $1,030 $1,311 $1,548 $1,685 GDP GDP Losses $937 $819 $74,817 $598 $317 $80 -Total $1,410 1.9%

Direct $637 Direct $637 GDP Total $1,410 $74,817 Total $1,410 $74,817 Income Direct $637 Direct $468 Total $1,410 $74,817 Income Income Total $956 $54,176 Direct $468 Direct $468 Income Total $956 $54,176 Total $956 $54,176 Jobs Direct $468 Direct 12,252 Total $956 $54,176 Jobs Jobs Total 20,714 653,584 Direct 12,252 Direct 12,252 Jobs Total 20,714 653,584 Total 20,714 653,584 Taxes (total) Direct 12,252 Federal $329 Total 20,714 653,584 Taxes(total) (total) Taxes Provincial $310 $17,025 Federal $329 Federal $329 Taxes (total) M unicipal $86 Provincial $310 $17,025 Provincial $310 $17,025 Federal $329 Sources: StatCan; Government of Manitoba; Oxford Economics Municipal unicipal $86 M $86 Provincial $310 $17,025 Sources: StatCan;Government GovernmentofofManitoba; Manitoba;Oxford OxfordEconomics Economics Sources: StatCan; M unicipal $86

Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics

Employment in Manitoba

fTaTosoutu erirrsism thmadndeep thpeeennd gde een nntetsraselecectoctorosrnsaoarm ereyg.grorowwiningg T irsrm occrosonnaoorm emygy. r.owing fafoasusterte ththadanenp thtehened gge een nnteesrarealclete

Index (2001=100)

EEmmpploloyymmeennt tininMMaannitiotobbaa 130(2001=100) Index EIndex mplo(2001=100) yment in Manitoba Index (2001=100) 130 130

Since 2001, employment in the

130 120

accommodation and foodinservices Since Since2001, 2001,employment employment inthe the sector has increased 22%, while total employment inhas the Since 2001, employment inservices the accommodation and sector accommodation andfood food services sector has

120 120 120 110

province grew 19%. accommodation and food services sectorinin has increased 22%, while total employment the increased 22%, while total employment the increased 22%, while total employment in the province grew 19%. province grew 19%.is becoming an The visitor economy

110 110 110 100

province grew 19%. part of the overall increasingly important The isisbecoming Thevisitor visitoreconomy economy becomingan an economy and outpaces growth in other major The visitor economy is becoming an increasingly increasinglyimportant importantpart partofofthe theoverall overall

100 100 100 90

industries. increasingly important of the overall economy outpaces growth ininother economyand and outpacespart growth othermajor major economy and outpaces growth in other major industries. industries. industries.

90 90 90 80

Source: StatCan

72 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

$2,752

1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Accommodation and food ser vices Accommodation Accommodation and Total employment andfood foodser services vices Accommodation

and food ser vices Total Totalemployment employment Finance, insur ance, Total employment r eal estate Finance, Finance,insur insurance, ance, r eal r ealestate estate Finance, insur ance, Manufactur r eal estate ing Manufactur Manufacturing ing ForManufactur estr y, fishing, ing mining For Forestr estry,y,fishing, fishing, Agr icultur e mining mining For estr y, fishing,

70 2001 2001 2004 2004 2007 2007 2010 2010 2013 2013 2016 2016 2019 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Source: Source:StatCan StatCan

$1,803

1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

Agr Agricultur iculturee 80 80 Agr icultur e 80 70 70 702001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Source: StatCan

$1,274

Sources: StatCan; Government of Manitoba; Oxford Economics

Tourism dependent sectors are growing

faster than the general economy.

Total

mining

MANITOBA’S MANITOBA’S V SN ITIO RBEAC’SONOMY MIA TO V I S I T O R ECONOMY Forecast scenarios V I S I T O R ECONOMY Pandemic impact Pandemic impact Pandemic impact

Total visitor spending losses associated M a niitttho oeb ba aC’’ssOe e on n-o o1m m hna adsseh hme eillcd dw up p we ellll Mia o u w thn VccID 9 yypah ill w Mm otb drup well uaroninuitgn thtaoe’socevricesorisn$,o1bm ubytiltlh ad ihoaens.vhiseitlo e co orin no o m uiffsffe e nug gt ..the visitor d gm thyyeiisscrssisu , rrbiin ecu ecocreated nomy isthree suffescenarios ring. We (based on

While the province as a containment whole has only lost possible paths for virus and 2% of the jobs it had pre-pandemic or 13,700 While the province as a whole has only lost 2% of the recovery) jobs it hadfor pre-pandemic or 13,700 economic visitor spending 2% the it had pre-pandemic jobs,ofemployment infrom the lodging andor 13,700 during thejobs recovery the pandemic. jobs, employment lodging restaurants sectorinis the down 15%,and or 6,500 In the Baseline Scenario, visitor spending will jobs. These 6,500 lost hospitality jobs restaurants sector is down 15%, 6,500 jobs. These 6,500 lost hospitalityor jobs not recover to 2019 levels until 2024, and jobs. These jobs in account for 6,500 almostlost halfhospitality of all lost jobs total losses will amount to $1.8 billion. Manitoba. account for almost half of all lost jobs in Manitoba. Manitoba. Clle earllyy,, tth he ep prro ovviin ncce e’’ss e ecco on no om myy w wiillll n no ott vve rr ill not lycc, o o chee’sttrra evvce ollnssoe fCu ulllelyyare e oth errpu urn nttviillintth a e emccytto ow

Visitor spending in Manitoba, three scenarios Dollars, P n tt--p n m Prre e-- a amillions, nd dp po os slosses pa acompared nd de em miic ctoe e2019 mp pllo oy ym me en ntt iin nM Ma an niitto ob ba a 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Seasonally adjusted adjusted Seasonally P re- anScenario d post-pandemic employment in Manitoba Upside Seasonally adjusted Visit or Spending

$1,628 Losses Jobs in February 2020 Baseline Scenario Jobs October February 2020 Jobsorin in October 2020 2020 Visit Spending $1,628 Losses in October 2020 Jobs lost # Downside Scenario # Jobs lost % Visit or Spending $1,628 Jobs lost, Losses Jobs lost lost,%% % of of total total

2025

Total

Total $1,225 Lodging and$1,710 restaurants* $863 $1,523 $1,828 $1,970 $765 $105and ---Total $404Lodging restaurants* 664,200 43,600

$1,274

Total

Lodging and restaurants*

650,500 664,200$1,021 650,500 $780 $849 650,500 13,700$607 13,700 2% $809 $691 -$937 2% -- $819 *Technically ‘Accommodations and food food services’ services’ Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics *Technically ‘Accommodations and Jobs lost, % of total -Source: StatCan Source: StatCan *Technically ‘Accommodations and food services’ Source: StatCan

2024

37,100 43,600 $1,368 37,100 $1,541 $260 37,100 $87 6,500 6,500 15% $1,030 $1,311 47% 15% $598 $317 47% 47%

$1,653 --

$1,791 --

$1,803

$1,548 $80

$1,685 --

$2,752

MANITOBA’S M N ITntilO BvA ’Stor NOMY V IA I..vT R e vvrS frru e er uO the traE elC secO elcclyo oA ecrrsso M N I T O B A ’S recoIvS ersI . TOR ECONOMY V Seasonality V ISITOR ECONOMY Seasonality Seasonality

Manitoba will benefit from the seasonal

Seasonality of hotel room demand in Manitoba, 2019

11 9 9

d 2m 02t1h.e seasonal Misatnriibtoubtiaonwo illf btreanveeflitinfro Misatnribtoubtiaonwo illf btreanveeflitinfro d 2m 02t1h.e seasonal

Percent of annual hotel demand

distribution of travel in 2021.

Percent 12% of annual hotel demand

There is some hopeful news for the future.

12% 10%

Pfizer,isModerna, and AstraZenca all There some hopeful news for thehave future. recently shared the results of clinical trials There is some hopeful news for the future. Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZenca have all

10% 10% 8%

showing strong vaccine performance. While Pfizer, Moderna, andresults AstraZenca havetrials all recently shared the of clinical distribution of the vaccines may start as early recently shared the results of clinical trials showing strong vaccine performance. While

8% 8% 6%

as January 2020, a vaccines widespread showing strong vaccine performance. While distribution of the maydistribution start as early that has a significant impactmay on distribution the travel distribution of thea vaccines start as early as January 2020, widespread

6% 6% 4%

sector may not occur until March April. as January 2020, a widespread that has a significant impact on distribution theortravel

4% 4% 2%

that a significant impact on theortravel sector may not occur untilin March April. Sincehas hotel room demand Manitoba is sector may not occur until March or April. stronger in the second halfinofManitoba the year,is Since hotel room demand vaccine distribution will ramp-up in time Since hotel room demand in Manitoba is for stronger in the second half of the year, the province to second benefit from high season stronger in the ofits the year, vaccine distribution willhalf ramp-up in time for (as opposed to destinations with high vaccine distribution will ramp-up in time for the province toother benefit from its high season seasons in the and early the province tospring benefit from itssummer). high season (as opposed to other destinations with high (as opposed to spring other destinations with high seasons in the and early summer). 10

Seasonality of hotel room demand in Manitoba, 2019 12% lity ohotel Percent Seasoofnaannual f hodemand tel room demand in Manitoba, 2019

8.6%

9.6%

9.8%

8.7% 8.9% 8.9% 9.6% 8.8% 9.8%

8.2% 8.9% 8.9% 9.6% 8.8% 9.8% 7.5% 8.6% 7.7% 8.7% 8.2% 8.8% 8.7% 8.9% 8.9% 6.7% 6.6% 7.5% 8.6% 7.7% 8.2% 7.7% 6.7% 7.5% 6.6% 6.7%

6.6%

2% 2% 0%

0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: STR 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: STRJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: STR

seasons in the spring and early summer).

10 10

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 73

M A N IIT O B A ’’S M A N T O B A MIS AIN IO TR OB A ’SO S NOMY V T E C M A N I T O B A ’ S VVIISSIITTO R EEC O N O M YY O R C O N O M Forecast scenarios V ISITO R ECONOMY Forecast scenarios Forecast Forecastscenarios scenarios Forecast scenarios

Total visitor spending losses associated T ootta al vissiittio otorr rsssp pennd ddiin ning g llo osseesssa assssso ociated TTo w ithtatlhlvevisiC OVIDpeen -19 pg anlodssese mic aw ill occiaiatetedd w i t h t h e C O V I D 1 9 p a n d e m i c w i T oittihoa vthe itsetiC to rOvV sV n-d smicaicswswiollillcll iated 1-1i9n thulthn CO annsnd.sdeeem aww m o o epID rIeD$ b9g ipllpa iloo a m oou u nentt tttCo oto oV e $-$ 11 bb onion ndn..e.mic will w itm ho thun Oo ID 11 9b piillia aam llliilo ovvve err r$

Visitor spending in Manitoba, three scenarios V iin ttio b Dollars, losses VViis sisiittio otorrmillions, ssp ppe een nnd d ning ggcompared ninM MMa aan nniito oto2019 bba aa,, ,tth hthrre eree ees ssc cce een nna aarriiro oios ss rs diin 2019 2021 2022 2023 Dollars, millions, losses compared to2020 2019 Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 VUpside isitor Scenario spending in2019 Manito2020 ba, thre2021 e scena2022 rios 2023

a mocreated unt to othree ver $scenarios 1 billion.(based on We

We created three scenarios (based on We three scenarios (based Wecreated created three scenarios (basedon on possible paths for virus containment and possible paths for virus containment and We created three scenarios (based on possible for containment and possiblepaths paths forvirus virus containment and economic recovery) for visitor spending economic recovery) for visitor spending possible paths for virus containment and economic recovery) for visitor spending economic recovery)from for visitor spending during the recovery the pandemic.

during therecovery) recovery for from the pandemic. economic visitor spending during the duringthe therecovery recoveryfrom from thepandemic. pandemic. In the Baseline Scenario, visitor spending will during the recovery from the pandemic. In Baseline Scenario, visitor spending will InInthe the Baseline Scenario, spending the Baseline Scenario, visitor spending will not recover to 2019 levelsvisitor until 2024, andwill not recover to 2019 levels until 2024, and In the Baseline Scenario, visitor spending will not recover to 2019 levels until 2024, and not recover to 2019 levels until 2024, and total losses will amount to $1.8 billion.

MANITOBA’S total losses will amount to $1.8 not recover to 2019 levels 2024, and M A N Iwill T O BE Auntil ’Sbillion. total losses will amount toto $1.8 billion. total losses amount $1.8 billion. V I S I T O R C O N OMY total losses will amount to $1.8 billion. V I S I T O R E C O N O MY Full forecast

2019 2019 2020 2020 Dollars, losses compared 2019 Visit or millions, Spending $1,628 to$863 Upside Scenario Upside UpsideScenario Scenario 2019 Losses $765 Visit or Spending $1,628 2020 $863 Visit $1,628 VisitororSpending Spending $1,628 $863 $863 Upside Baseline Scenario Losses Scenario $765 Losses $765 Losses $765 Visit or Spending $1,628 $863 Visit or Spending $780 Baseline Scenario $1,628 Baseline BaselineScenario Scenario Losses $765 Losses Visit or Spending $1,628 $849 $780 Visit $1,628 VisitororSpending Spending $1,628 $780 $780 Baseline Downside Scenario Losses Scenario $849 Losses $849 Losses $849 Visit or Spending $1,628 $780 Visit or Spending $691 Downside Scenario $1,628 Downside DownsideScenario Scenario Losses $849 Losses Visit or Spending $1,628 $937 $691 Visit $1,628 VisitororSpending Spending $1,628 $691 $691 Downside Scenario Losses StatCan; $937 Sources: Tourism Economics Losses $937 Losses $937 Visit or Spending $1,628 $691 Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics Sources: Sources:StatCan; StatCan;Tourism TourismEconomics Economics Losses $937 Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics

2024 2025 Total 2024 2025 Total 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total Total $1,225 $1,523 $1,710 $1,828 $1,970 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total $404 $105 ---$1,274 $1,225 $1,523 $1,710 $1,828 $1,970 $1,225 $1,225 $1,523 $1,523 $1,710 $1,710 $1,828 $1,828 $1,970 $1,970 $404 $105 ---$1,274 $404 $105 ---------$1,274 $404 $1,523 $105 $1,710 $1,274 $1,225 $1,828 $1,970 $1,021 $1,368 $1,541 $1,653 $1,791 $404 $105 ---$1,274 $607 $260 $87 --$1,803 $1,021 $1,368 $1,541 $1,653 $1,791 $1,021 $1,021 $1,368 $1,368 $1,541 $1,541 $1,653 $1,653 $1,791 $1,791 $607 $260 $87 --$1,803 $607 $260 $87 --$1,803 $607 $260 $87 --$1,803 $1,021 $1,368 $809 $1,030 $1,541 $1,311 $1,653 $1,548 $1,791 $1,685 $607 $260 $87 --$1,803 $819 $598 $317 $80 -$2,752 $809 $1,030 $1,311 $1,548 $1,685 $809 $809 $1,030 $1,030 $1,311 $1,311 $1,548 $1,548 $1,685 $1,685 $819 $598 $317 $80 -$2,752 $819 $598 $317 $80 -$819 $598 $317 $80 -$2,752 $809 $1,030 $1,311 $1,548 $1,685 $2,752 $819 $598 $317 $80 -$2,752

Full forecast Full forecast

D pa an nd de em miicc sse ettb ba acckk,, o ou urr De essp piitte e tth he ep ba aesse eplliiitn nee ethffo oerre epccaa anssdttessm hsa aesstbtto o u murssp pe en nd diin ng g D au ckrrii,sso b ttiillillch m 11 11 11 11 11

osw w nng ge b bfoyyre 5c1 1a% %stffrrso otim m 2a0 0s1 19 9 ori2 2 03 3s0 0p.. ending bg eliiin ll h2 tottuo sm garro 5 0 growing by 51% from 2019 to 2030.

V orr ssp ng g iin nM Viissiitto pe en nd diin Ma an niitto ob ba a,, tth hrre ee e sscce en na arriio oss Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 Visitor spending in Manitoba, three scenarios Dollars, millions, losses compared 2019 to 2019 2020

2019

2020

Upside Upside Scenario Scenario 2019 2020 Visit $1,628 $863 Visit or or Spending Spending $1,628 $863 Upside Scenario Losses $765 Losses $765 Visit or Spending $1,628 $863 Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario Losses $765 Visit $1,628 $780 Visit or or Spending Spending $780 Baseline Scenario $1,628 Losses $849 Losses $849 Visit or Spending $1,628 $780 Downside Scenario Downside Scenario Losses $849 Visit $1,628 $691 Visit or or Spending Spending $691 Downside Scenario $1,628 Losses $937 Losses $937 Visit or Spending $1,628 $691 Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics Sources: Losses StatCan; Tourism Economics $937

Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics

12 12 12

74 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

2021 2021

2022 2022

2023 2023

2024 2024

2025 2025

2026 2026

2027 2027

2028 2028

2029 2029

2030 2030

19-'30 19-'30 growt growt h h $ % $ %h 19-'30 growt $ % $1,003 62% $1,003 62%

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $1,225 $1,225 $1,523 $1,523 $1,710 $1,710 $1,828 $1,828 $1,970 $1,970 $2,099 $2,099 $2,229 $2,229 $2,356 $2,356 $2,490 $2,490 $2,631 $2,631 $404 $105 --------$404 $1,523 $105 $1,710 --------$1,225 $1,828 $1,970 $2,099 $2,229 $2,356 $2,490 $2,631 $1,003 $404 $105 --------$1,021 $1,021 $1,368 $1,368 $1,541 $1,541 $1,653 $1,653 $1,791 $1,791 $1,917 $1,917 $2,046 $2,046 $2,174 $2,174 $2,309 $2,309 $2,452 $2,452 $824 $824 $607 $260 $87 -------$607 $260 $87 -------$1,021 $1,368 $1,541 $1,653 $1,791 $1,917 $2,046 $2,174 $2,309 $2,452 $824 $607 $260 $87 -------$809 $1,030 $809 $1,030 $1,311 $1,311 $1,548 $1,548 $1,685 $1,685 $1,813 $1,813 $1,945 $1,945 $2,077 $2,077 $2,216 $2,216 $2,366 $2,366 $738 $738 $819 $598 $317 $80 ------$819 $1,030 $598 $1,311 $317 $1,548 $80 ------$809 $1,685 $1,813 $1,945 $2,077 $2,216 $2,366 $738 $819 $598 $317 $80 -------

62% 51% 51% 51% 45% 45% 45%

M NIIT O B A ’S S MMA AAN T O B A ’ N ITR OB A ’O SNOMY V I S I T O E C M A N I T O B A ’ S VVIS IT OORREECCOONNOOMMYY I S I T Forecast scenarios V ISITO R ECONOMY Baseline scenario impacts Baseline Baselinescenario scenarioimpacts impacts Baseline scenario impacts

Total visitor spending losses associated E nonm ccicllo ssse assassso ocia etd d wiitth hthllo ost EcciEto o iiC esss-e1sa ce ittae w hcnoto hm eom OoVlsoIsD 9 pascnoida meicdww ill lsotst v i s i t o r s p e n d i n g a r e s e v e r e a n d w i E csvoio sre cveine av.rteerdeaw ollllsiltl vaim tsnou io tro srt pitsco epnle d n igns$ga1araesbrse nadinthdwliw nm oodn vsie isloleiso oitu uo nu hte onru ud giunh hgghtth hate erheeyyse eyea aevrrasser..rse. and will vm on rttnstttp mism o h rrho og m oucreated nt throuthree gh thscenarios e years. (based on We

In the Baseline Scenario, $1.8 billion in lost In In the the Baseline Baseline Scenario, Scenario, $1.8 $1.8 billion billion in in lost lost possible paths for virus containment and visitor spending over four years results in the In the Baseline Scenario, $1.8 billion in lost visitor visitor spending spending over over four four years years results results in in the the economic recovery) for visitor spending losses of: visitor spending over four years results in the losses losses of: of: during the recovery from the pandemic. losses of:billion in business sales; •• • $3.5 $3.5 $3.5 billion billion in in business business sales; sales; In the Baseline Scenario, visitor spending will •not $3.5 billion in business sales; •• • $1.6 billion GDP; recover to in 2019 levels until 2024, and $1.6 $1.6 billion billion in in GDP; GDP; losses willinamount to $1.8 billion. ••total $1.6 billion GDP; million in wages; • • $900 $900 $900 million million in in wages; wages; •• $900 million in wages; million in local and provincial tax • • $372 $372 $372 million million in in local local and and provincial provincial tax tax revenue; and • $372 million in local and provincial tax revenue; revenue; and and

MM AANNand IT AA’S ITOOB B ’S •• • revenue; an annual average of 3,978 jobs. an an annual annual average average of of 3,978 3,978 jobs. jobs. M A N I T O B A ’ S VanIS OORRof E O Iannual SIT IT ECC ONNOOMMYY • V average 3,978 jobs. V ISITOR ECONOMY Forecast scenario impacts

Visitor spending in Manitoba, three scenarios E m iic **sii*n a tt2019 o tth n iin Dollars, Ec cEo ocn noo onmillions, m om cicllo olosses ls sos sse ess secompared ninM MM an nto aiin oitb boa abaas sas sso osc coiia a cittae etd dedw wiiw hithllo ols sottsv vt iis sviittso oitrros sr p pse epn ned dniid nig gn,,gB B, a aBs sae eslle nlie ene 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total S c e n a r i o E ccSoecnneoanm SUpside rScenario aioirciolosses* in Manitoba associated with lost visitor spending, Baseline Dollars figures in millions, losses compared to 2019

Visit $1,628 $863 to$1,225 Dollars in millions, losses losses compared compared to 2019 2019 $1,523 $1,710 $1,828 $1,970 S cDollars enorafigures rSpending ifigures o in millions, 2020 2022 Tot al Lossesfigures in millions, losses $765 2021 $404 $105 -- 2023 -- 2024 -$1,274 2020 2020 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 Tot Tot alal Dollars compared to2021 2019 Baseline Scenario Visit or spending $849 $607 $260 $87 -$1,803 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Tot al Visit or spending $849 $607 $260 $87 -$1,803 Visit or spending $849 $607 $260 $87 -$1,803 Visit or Spending $1,628 $780 $1,021 $1,368 $1,541 $1,653 $1,791 Business sales $1,182 $506 $170 -$3,510 Losses $849 $607 $260 $1,803 Visit or spending $849 $607 $260 $87 Business sales $1,653 $1,653 $1,182 $506 $87 $170 -- -$3,510 Business sales $1,653 $1,182 $506 $170 -- -- -- $1,803 $3,510 Downside Scenario GDP $735 $526 $225 $75 -$1,561 Business sales $1,653 $1,182 $506 $170 -$3,510 GDP $735 $526 $225 $1,311 $75 -- $1,561 $1,561 GDP $735 $225 $75 Visit or Spending $1,628 $691 $526 $809 $1,030 $1,548 --$1,685 Wages $424 $303 $130 $44 -$900 GDP $735 $225 $75 Losses $937 $526 $819 $598 $2,752 Wages $424 $303 $130 $317 $44$80 -$900 Wages $424 $303 $130 $44 -- -- -- $1,561 $900 Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics Jobs (FTE)*** 7,557 5,324 2,268 761 -3,978** Wages $424 $303 $130 $44 -$900 Jobs (FTE)*** 7,557 5,324 5,324 2,268 2,268 761 3,978** Jobs (FTE)*** 7,557 761 -- -- 3,978** Taxes $329 $235 $101 $34 -$699 Jobs (FTE)*** 7,557 761 -Taxes $329 5,324 $235 2,268 $101 $34 $699 Taxes $329 $235 $101 $34 -- -- 3,978** $699 $328 Federal $154 $110 $47 $16 -Taxes $329 $235 $101 $34 -$699 $328 $328 Federal Federal $154 $154 $110 $110 $47 $47 $16 $16 -- -$309 Provincial $145 $104 $44 $15 -$328 Federal $154 $110 $47 $16 -$309 $309 Provincial Provincial $145 $145 $104 $104 $44 $44 $15 $15 -- -$63 Municipal $29 $21 $9 $3 -$309 Provincial $145 $104 $44 $15 -$63 $63 Municipal Municipal $29 $29 $21 $21 $9$9 $3$3 -- -*Includes indirect and induced impacts *Includes *Includes indirect indirect and and induced induced impacts impacts $63 Municipal $21 $9 $3 -**annual average of jobs lost $29 **annual **annual average average of of jobs jobs lostlost *Includes indirect and induced impacts ***Full-time equivalent ***Full-time ***Full-time equivalent equivalent **annual jobs lostEconomics Sources:average StatCan;ofTourism Sources: Sources: StatCan; StatCan; Tourism Tourism Economics Economics ***Full-time equivalent Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics

Forecast Forecastscenario scenarioimpacts impacts Forecast scenario impacts

11 13 1313

T ffffie iic p Th hTe ehed diid effrree ern nettne et cceo ocn noo onm m om ciciim mim pa apc cattcs sts b e t w e e n t h e d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r otrsissosg grrgo orw w T fefn eerntehnteht edeicd orn m pan ara ciio bh ebe tewtde wie ffoiefnfree etnicst cism ecne ow v e r t i m e . bo e t w e e n t h e d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s g r o w ovoevretrim tim e.e. over time.

Compared to the Baseline Scenario, the Compared Compared toto the the Baseline Baseline Scenario, Scenario, the the Upside Scenario would result in an additional Compared to the Baseline Scenario, the Upside Upside Scenario Scenario would would result result in in anan additional additional $529 million in spending, $458 in Upside Scenario would result inmillion anmillion additional $529 $529 million million in in spending, spending, $458 $458 million in in GDP, and $91 million in provincial taxes. $529 million inmillion spending, $458 million in GDP, GDP, and and $91 $91 million in in provincial provincial taxes. taxes.

GDP, and the $91Downside million in provincial taxes.cost Similarly Scenario would Similarly Similarly the the Downside Downside Scenario Scenario would would cost cost the province million in spending, Similarly the $949 Downside Scenario would$822 cost the the province province $949 $949 million million in in spending, spending, $822 $822

million in GDP, and $163 million in provincial the province $949 million inmillion spending, $822 million million in in GDP, GDP, and and $163 $163 million in in provincial provincial taxes. million taxes. taxes.in GDP, and $163 million in provincial taxes. S tth ttrra iittssita tto Su uSp pup ppo oprrottiirn ntg g ing hte ehe atrvvae evll essle esccetto o ctrroiirn n in a siim m aim oto rre a l i z e a n u p s i d e s c e n a r i o w i l l h a v e m a S u p p o r t i n g t h e t r a v e l s e c t o r i n i t s a i m t o eraeliazleize anan upuspidse ide scsecneanraiorio wiw ll ihllahvaeve mm ajjo o arrjor oa iim p ttsscetffso p rp n id sfcrroettrh lvl ccih ve peo pssloiizttsiievvite eia ve mium ppa apscca o hnte eahre piorrpo ow rvvoiin n ne ea c..e . major positive impacts for the province.

E iic a tto tth n Ec cEo ocn noo onm m om cicllo ols sos sse ess sesiin ninM MM an naiin oitb boa abaas sas sso osc coiia a cittae etd dedw wiiw hithllo ols sottsv vt iis sviittso oitrros sr p pse epn ned dniid nig gng Dollars figures in millions, losses compared to 2019 Dollars Dollars figures figures in millions, in millions, losses losses compared compared to to 2019 2019 Economic losses in 2020 Manitob2021 a asso2022 ciated w i t h l o s t v i s i t o r s p e n d i n g 2023 2024 2025 Total 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 Dollars figures in millions, losses compared to 2019 Upside Scenario Upside Scenario Upside Scenario Visit or spending Visit spending Visit or or spending Upside Scenario GDP GDP GDP Visit or spending Provincial t axes Provincial t axes Provincial t axes GDP Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario Provincial t axes Visit or spending Visit spending Visit or or spending Baseline Scenario GDP GDP GDP Visit or spending Provincial t axes Provincial t axes Provincial t axes GDP Downside Scenario Downside Scenario Downside Scenario Provincial t axes Visit or spending Visit spending Visit or or spending Downside Scenario GDP GDP GDP Visit or spending Provincial t axes Provincial t axes Provincial t axes GDP

Total Total

Total $1,274 $1,274 $1,274 $1,103 $1,103 $1,103 $1,274 $218 $218 $218 $1,103 -$218 -$1,803 $1,803 -- -- $1,803 -$1,561 -$1,561 -$1,561 -$1,803 -$309 $309 -- -- $1,561 $309 --$309 -$2,752 $2,752 -- -- $2,752 -$2,384 $2,384 -- -- $2,752 $2,384 --$471 $471 -- -- $2,384 $471 --

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 $765 $404 $105 ---$765 $404 $404 $105 $105 $765 -- --- --- -$662 $350 $91 ---$662 $404 $350 $105 $91 $662 $350 $91 -- --- --- -$765 ---$131 $69 $18 ---$131 $69 $18 --$131 $69 $18 ---$662 $350 $91 ---- --

$131 $69 $18 $849 $607 $260 $849 $607 $607 $260 $260 $849 $735 $526 $225 $735 $607 $526 $260 $225 $735 $526 $225 $849 $145 $104 $44 $145 $526 $104 $225 $44 $145 $104 $44 $735

-$87 $87 $87 $75 $75 $75 $87 $15 $15 $15 $75 $145 $104 $44 $15 $937 $819 $598 $317 $937 $819 $819 $598 $598 $317 $317 $937 $811 $710 $518 $275 $811 $819 $710 $598 $518 $317 $275 $811 $710 $518 $275 $937 $160 $140 $102 $54 $160 $710 $140 $518 $102 $275 $54 $160 $140 $102 $54 $811

---- ---- ------ --

-$80 $80 $80 $69 $69 $69 $80 $14 $14 $14 $69 Provincial G ains ort (axes losses) in$160 Manito$140 ba com$102 pared to$54 Baseli$14 ne Scena--rio

$471

GG aia nisnsoro(rlo(lsossesse)si)ninMM anain toitboabacocm om papraerdedtotoBaBsaesle inlieneScSecneanraiorio Dollars figures in millions Dollars in G aDollars insfigures ofigures r (loinsmillions semillions s) in2020 Manito2021 ba com p a r e d t o B a s e l i ne Sc2025 enario Tot al 2022 2023 2024

2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 TotTot al al Dollars figures in millions 2020 Upside Scenario

Upside Scenario Upside Scenario 2020 2024 2025 Tot al Visit or spending $84 2021 $203 2022 $155 2023 ---$529 Visit spending $84 $203 $203 $155 $155 $529 Visit or or spending $84 -- --- --- -$529 Upside GDP Scenario $73 $176 $134 ---$458 GDP $73 $176 $134 ---$458 GDP $73 $176 $134 ---$458 Visit or spending $84 $203 $155 ---$529 Provincial t axes $14 $35 $26 ---$91 Provincial t axes $14 $176 $35 $134 $26 $91 Provincial t axes $14 $35 $26 -- --- --- -$91 GDP $73 ---$458 Downside Scenario Downside Scenario $14 Downside Scenario Provincial t axes $35 $26 ---$91 Visit or spending ($88) ($213) ($338) ($230) ($80) -($949) Visit spending ($88) ($213) ($213)($338) ($338)($230) ($230) ($80) ($80) ($949) Visit or or spending ($88) -- -- ($949) Downside Scenario GDP ($77) ($184) ($293) ($200) ($69) -($822) GDP ($77) ($184) ($293) ($200) ($69) -($822) GDP ($77) ($184) ($293) ($200) ($69) -($822) Visit or spending ($88) -($949) Provincial t axes ($15) ($213) ($36) ($338) ($58) ($230) ($39) ($80) ($14) -($163) Provincial t axes ($15) ($184) ($36) ($293) ($58) ($200) ($39) ($69) ($14) ($163) Provincial t axes ($15) ($36) ($58) ($39) ($14) -- -- ($822) ($163) GDP ($77) --

Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics Sources: Sources: StatCan; StatCan; Tourism Economics Economics Provincial t axesTourism ($15) ($36) Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics

($58)

($39)

($14)

($163)

14 1414

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 75

SECTOR Economic impacts MANITOBA’S MANITOBA’S HOTEL HOTEL MANITOBA’S HOTEL HOTEL SECTOR SECTOR MANITOBA’S Hotels sustain billions of business sales SECTOR Economic impacts annually in Manitoba. Economic impacts SECTOR Economic Economic impacts impacts Economic impacts

Hotels sustain billions of business sales In 2019,sustain hotel room demand in Manitoba Hotels billions of business sales annually in Manitoba. Hotels sustain billions of business exceeded 3.4Manitoba. million, and of room revenuesales annually in Hotels sustain billions business sales Hotels sustain billions of business sales annually$428 in Manitoba. Manitoba. reached million. annually in annually in Manitoba.

16 16

16 16 16

MANITOBA’S H MO AT NE ITLOSBEAC’STOR M AN ITLresults OSBEAC’STOR Disastrous H O TE H OTEL SECTOR Disastrous results

Hotel revenue is dropping precipitously.

$83 $45 $83 $45 $190 $190 $190 $45 $45 $45

Disastrous results

RevPAR change in Manitoba, 2020

H Hootteell rreevveennuuee iiss ddrrooppppiinngg pprreecciippiittoouussllyy.. Hotel revenue is dropping precipitously.

R ReevvP PA AR R cchhaannggeeConference iinn M Maanniittoobbaa,, 22002Food 200 & beverage 0% Percent Percent loss to 2019 R evP Aloss R compared ccompared hangeto in2019 Manitoba, 2020

Travel

Across all types of hotel (here categorized as

Percent loss compared to 2019

Travel Travel

conference, food &per beverage, and travel), RevPAR RevPAR (revenue per available available room), room), is is While the(revenue situation appeared to have RevPAR (revenue available down down dramatically. dramatically. improved over theper summer, the room), fall andis

down dramatically. winter market typically bringsto fewer While While the the situation situation appeared appeared to have haveleisure travelers business/event guests, While theand situation appearedthe to fall have improved improved over overmore the the summer, summer, the fall and and and these sectors lagged recovery. improved over thehave summer, thein fall and winter winter market market typically typically brings brings fewer fewer leisure leisure winter market typically brings fewer leisure travelers travelers and andshift more more business/event business/event guests, guests, This market combined with a resurgence

travelers more business/event guests, and and these theseand sectors sectors have have lagged in in recovery. recovery. of COVID-19 cases havelagged created a bleak and these sectors have lagged recovery. outlook that will persist untilwith a in vaccine is This This market market shift shift combined combined with aa resurgence resurgence widely distributed. This market shift combined with aaaresurgence of of COVID-19 COVID-19 cases cases have have created created bleak bleak of COVID-19 cases haveuntil created a bleak outlook outlook that that will will persist persist until aa vaccine vaccine is is

STR data Room demand Economic impacts of3,433,000 hotels in Manitoba, 2019 Economic impacts of hotels in Manitoba, 2019 Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full$428 -time equivalents, room demand Room revenue Dollar figures inimpacts millions, are full-time equivalents, room demand Economic of hotels in 2019 is rooms booked based onjobs 14,000 hotel rooms in Manitoba Economic impacts of hotels in Manitoba, Manitoba, M NP data is rooms booked based on 14,000 hotel rooms in Manitoba 2019 Dollar figures figures in in millions, jobs jobs are full full-time -time equivalents, room room demand Economic impacts of hotels in Manitoba, 2019 Dollar millions, are equivalents, demand sales $1,490 isBusiness rooms booked based on onjobs 14,000 hotel rooms in Manitoba Manitoba STR data Dollar figures in millions, are full -time equivalents, room demand is rooms booked based 14,000 hotel rooms in STR data isGDP rooms booked based on 14,000 hotel rooms in Manitoba $730 Room demand 3,433,000 STR Room demand 3,433,000 STR data data Jobs 14,400 Room revenue $428 STR data Room demand 3,433,000 Room $428 Room revenue demand 3,433,000 M NP data Taxes Room demand 3,433,000 M NP data Room revenue $428 Room revenue $428 Federal $83 Business sales $1,490 Room revenue $428 M NP data Business sales $1,490 MProvincial NP data $190 GDP $730 M NP datasales Business $1,490 GDP $730 Business sales $1,490 Local $45 Jobs 14,400 Business sales $1,490 GDP $730 Jobs 14,400 GDP STR; MNP $730 Sources: Taxes GDP $730 Jobs 14,400 Taxes Jobs 14,400 Federal $83 Jobs 14,400 Taxes Federal $83 Taxes Provincial $190 Taxes Provincial $190 Federal $83

*Note these impacts would not entirely from tourists. Residents may *Note that that these would directly not come come tourists. Residents may eat eat at at aa figures should notimpacts be compared toentirely StatCanfrom estimates of tourist spending. restaurant, host aa wedding, or aa corporate etc. hotel. So *Note that these would not come entirelyparty, from tourists. Residents eat at a restaurant, host impacts wedding, or throw throw corporate party, etc. at at aa local local hotel.may So these these figures be directly to estimates tourist spending. restaurant, hostnot a wedding, or throw a corporate party, etc. at aof hotel. So these figures should should not be compared compared directly to StatCan StatCan estimates oflocal tourist spending. figures should not be compared directly to StatCan estimates of tourist spending.

RevPAR available room), is as Across Across all all(revenue types types of ofper hotel hotel (here (here categorized categorized as down dramatically. Across all types of hotel (here categorized as conference, conference, food food & &beverage, beverage, and and travel), travel),

17 17

Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full-time equivalents, room demand is rooms booked based on 14,000 hotel rooms in Manitoba

MNP conducted a full economic impact In 2019, hotel room demand in Manitoba In 2019, that hotelincluded room demand in room Manitoba analysis not only revenue, exceeded 3.4 million, and room revenue In 2019, hotel room demand in exceeded 3.4 million, and room revenue In 2019, hotelrevenue room demand in Manitoba Manitoba but also hotel from restaurants, In 2019, hotel room demand in Manitoba reached $428 million. exceeded 3.4 million, million, and room room revenue reached $428 million. exceeded 3.4 and revenue hosted events, and other sources*. They then exceeded 3.4 million, and room revenue reached $428 million. MNP conducted a full economic impact reached $428 million. ran a full economic impact analysis that MNP conducted a full economic impact reached $428 million. analysis that included not only room revenue, MNP conducted a full economic impact included direct, indirect, and induced analysis that included not only room revenue, MNP conducted a full economic impact MNP conducted a full economic impact but also hotel revenue from restaurants, analysis that included not only room revenue, impacts. Results demonstrate that hotels in but also hotel revenue from restaurants, analysis that included not only room revenue, analysis that included not only room revenue, hosted events, and other sources*. They then but also hotel revenue from restaurants, Manitoba support billion in total hosted and$1.5 other sources*. They then but alsoevents, hotel revenue from restaurants, Federal but also hotel revenue from restaurants, ran a fullevents, economic impact analysis that Local hosted and other sources*. They then business sales, 14,400 jobs, and 235 million in ran a fullevents, economic analysis that hosted and impact other sources*. They then Federal Local Provincial Provincial Sources: STR; MNP hosted events, and other sources*. They included direct, indirect, and induced Sources: STR; MNP ran aa full full economic impact analysis that then Provincial provincial and local tax revenue. included direct, indirect, and induced Local ran economic impact analysis that Local ran a full economic impactand analysis impacts. Results demonstrate that that hotels in Sources: STR; MNP Local included direct, indirect, induced impacts. demonstrate thatentirely hotelsfrom in tourists. ResidentsSources: included direct, indirect, induced *Note that Results these impacts wouldand not come may eat STR; at a MNP Sources: STR; MNP included direct, indirect, and induced Manitoba support $1.5 billion in total restaurant, host a wedding, or throw a corporate party, etc. at a local hotel. So these impacts. Results demonstrate that hotels in Manitoba support $1.5 billion in total impacts. Results that hotels estimates in figures should not be demonstrate compared directly to StatCan of tourist spending. impacts. Results demonstrate that hotels in in business sales, 14,400 jobs, and 235 million Manitoba support $1.5 billion in total business sales, 14,400 jobs, and 235 million in Manitoba support $1.5 billion in total Manitoba support $1.5 in totalmillion in provincial and local tax billion revenue. business 14,400 and provincial and local taxjobs, revenue. business sales, sales, 14,400 jobs, and 235 235 million in business sales, 14,400 jobs, and 235 million *Note that these impacts would not come entirely fromintourists. Residents may eat at a provincial and local tax revenue. provincial and wedding, local tax revenue. *Note that these would not come entirelyparty, from etc. tourists. Residents eat at a restaurant, host aimpacts or throw a corporate at a local hotel. may So these provincial and taxorrevenue. restaurant, host a local wedding, throw a corporate party, etc. at of a local hotel. So these figures should not be compared directly to StatCan estimates tourist spending.

conference, food & beverage, and travel),

Economic impacts of hotels in Manitoba, 2019

outlook that will persist until a vaccine is widely widely distributed. distributed. widely distributed. 76 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Percent loss compared to 2019

0% -25% 0%

Conference Conference

Food & beverage Food & beverage

-25% -50% -25% -50% -75% -50% -75% -100% -75% Source: MNP -100%

-100%

Source: Source:MNP MNP Source: MNP

-46% -56% -56% -56% -80% -84% -56% -80% -80% -84% -84% Q2 -80% -84%

Q2 Q2

-70%

-49%

-46% -46% -49% -49% -46% -49%

-70% -70% -70%

Q3 Q3 Q3

-63%

-63% -63% -63% -63% -63% -63% -98%

Q4 (fcst ) -98% -98%

Q4 (fcst ) -98% Q4 (fcst )

MANITOBA’S MANITOBA’S HOTEL SECTOR M AT NE ITLOSBEAC’STOR HO Economic H OTELimpacts SECTOR Winnipeg impact Winnipeg impact Winnipeg impact

Hotels sustain billions of business sales U tte s Urrb ba an nh ho oin ellManitoba. sh ha avve eb be ee en np pa arrttiic cu ulla arrlly y annually h arbrrd danh hiih btyyetltsh he ehap pva aen nd dbe eem m ntd d Ua eniiccp icularly h tt o b ,, a arn W h tg b''ys Waiirn ndn niihp pie e g s th ho oette epllas sna adrree emn nio oc,e eax xnc cde ep pttiio on n.. Winnipeg's hotels are no exception.

Economic impacts of hotels in Manitoba, 2019 R o rre e a tto a a W ,, 2 2 RDollar oo om mfigures ev ve en ninu umillions, e iin nM Mjobs an niiare ob bfull a -time an nd d equivalents, Wiin nn niip pe eg groom 20 0demand 20 0 Percent changed corresponding month in 2019 is rooms bookedcompared based on to 14,000 hotel rooms in Manitoba Percent changed compared to corresponding month in 2019 Room revenue in Manitoba and Winnipeg, 2020 20% Percent changed compared to corresponding month in 2019 20% STR data 20% Room demand 3,433,000 0% revenue Room $428 0% M NP 0%data Business $1,490 -20% sales -20% GDP $730 -20% Jobs 14,400 -40% -40% Taxes

In 2019, hotel room demand in Manitoba When the pandemic, When consumers consumers travel travel during pandemic, exceeded 3.4 million, andduring roomthe revenue they have shown a clear preference for When consumers travel during the they have shown a clear preferencepandemic, for rural rural reached $428 million. destinations, and rural hotels have faired they have shown a clear preference for rural destinations, and rural hotels have faired MNP conducted a full economic impact better than urban hotels in across Canada destinations, and rural hotels haveCanada faired better than urban hotels in across analysis thaturban included notinonly room revenue, and the globe. better than hotels across Canada and the globe. but also hotel revenue from restaurants, -40% and the globe. Winnipeg is no no exception exception and and has has Federal Winnipeg is hosted events, and other sources*. They then -60% Provincial -60% consistently faired worse than the rest of the Winnipeg is no exception and has consistently faired worse than the rest of the ran a full economic impact analysis that Local -60% province. room revenue consistently faired September, worse than the rest of the province. Through Through September, room revenue Sources: STR; MNP included direct, indirect, and induced -80% in Winnipeg is 55%, it province. Through September, revenue -80% in Winnipeg is down down 55%, while whileroom it is is down down impacts. Results demonstrate that hotels in -80% 44% in of province. in Winnipeg is down while it is down 44% in the the rest rest of the the55%, province. Manitoba support $1.5 billion in total -100% 44% in the restisof the province. -100% This unlikely to after aa This situation situation unlikelyjobs, to improve improve business sales,is14,400 and 235after million in Jan -100% Jan vaccine is as business and event This situation is unlikely to improve after a vaccine is distributed distributed asrevenue. business and event provincial and local tax Source: STR Jan Source: STR travel be than vaccine is distributed business andleisure event travel will will be slower slower to toasrecover recover than leisure Source: STRat a *Note that these impacts would not come entirely from tourists. Residents may eat travel. travel willhost be slower to or recover leisure restaurant, a wedding, throw a than corporate party, etc. at a local hotel. So these travel.

MANITOBA’S M AN ITLOSBEAC’STOR H O T E M AN ITLOSBEAC’STOR H O TE travel. Gloomy forecast H O T E L SECTOR Gloomy forecast

Rest Rest of of MB MB Winnipeg Rest of MB Winnipeg Winnipeg

$83 $190 $45

Feb Feb Feb

Mar Mar Mar

Apr Apr Apr

May May May

Jun Jun Jun

Jul Jul Jul

Aug Aug Aug

Sep Sep Sep

figures should not be compared directly to StatCan estimates of tourist spending.

16 18 18 18

Gloomy forecast

Room revenue may not recover until

Hotel room revenue in Canada

2 R0o2o5m. revenue may not recover until R 20o2o5m. revenue may not recover until

Index (corresponding month in 2019=100)

2025. Hotel room revenue across Canada was

100 100 80

down September, and the recovery Hotel 74% roominrevenue across Canada was will be slow. We estimate that room revenue Hotel 74% roominrevenue across Canada was down September, and the recovery

80 80 60

will still be down 22% nextand spring andrevenue will not down 74% inWe September, the recovery will be slow. estimate that room fully recover to 2019 levels until 2025. We estimate room will be stillslow. be down 22% nextthat spring andrevenue will not will still be down 22% next spring and will not fully recover tohotel 2019 levels until Overall, while closures have2025. so far kept fully recover toin2019 levels until 2025.is to a minimum Manitoba, sector Overall, while hotel closuresthe have so far kept under heavy financial stress and will Overall, while in hotel closuresthe have so need far to a minimum Manitoba, sector is kept continued government support towill prevent to a minimum in Manitoba, the is under heavy financial stress andsector need widespread bankruptcies. under heavy financial stress andtowill need continued government support prevent continued support to prevent widespreadgovernment bankruptcies. widespread bankruptcies.

Hotel room revenue in Canada Index H100 ote(corresponding l room revemonth nue iinn2019=100) Canada Index (corresponding month in 2019=100)

60 60 40 40 40 20

Forecast 

Down 74% in September Down 74% in September Down 74% in September

Forecast  Forecast 

Still 22% below 2019 levels in Still 22%2022 below March 2019 levels in Still 22% below March 2022in 2019 levels March 2022

20 20 0 0 0 Sources: Tourism Economics; STR Sources: Tourism Economics; STR Sources: Tourism Economics; STR

19 19 19

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 77

HU UN NT TIIN NG GA AN ND D H H U N T IN GLLA N D FIIU SN HT N GG ON DD GE ES S F S H IIN G O D G H I N A F ISHINimpacts G LODGES Economic Economic F ISHINimpacts G LODGES Economic impacts Economic impacts

Hunting and fishing lodges sustain $65 Hunting and fishing lodges sustain $65 m illnniottiinnngginaaM anitobaggbllo usigneeessssssuusssattlaaeiisnn. $$6655 H nnd Hiuu m llion in M adnffiistsohhbiinn a buosddign s sales. H toin nMdaan fnisiitth m nngiinnaM ooibbnaag bblouudssgiinneeessssssusssaata lleein ss..$65 muiillnlliio million in Manitoba business sales.

Probe Research inc. estimates that in 2019, Probe Research inc. estimates that in 2019, 313 hunting and/or fishing lodges operated in Probe Research inc. estimates that in Probe Research inc.fishing estimates thatoperated in 2019, 2019,in 313 hunting and/or lodges Manitoba. Theseinc. lodges support $65 million Probe Research estimates that in 2019, 313 and/or fishing lodges operated 313 hunting hunting and/or fishing lodges operated in Manitoba. These lodges support $65 million in in business sales, 808 jobs, lodges and $9 operated million in in 313 hunting and/or fishing Manitoba. lodges support million Manitoba. These lodges support $65 million in business These sales, 808 jobs, and $9$65 million in provincial and local government revenue. Manitoba. These lodges support $65 million in sales, 808 jobs, and million in in business businessand sales, 808 jobs, and $9 $9 million in provincial local government revenue. in business sales, 808 jobs, $9revenue. million Note that these figures areand based only on in provincial and local government provincial and local government revenue. Note that these figures are based only on provincial and local government revenue. lodges’ expenditures and would not include Note these based on Note that that these figures figures are based only on lodges’ expenditures andare would notonly include spending on transportation to theonly lodges or Note that these figures are based on lodges’ and include lodges’expenditures expenditures and would would not include spending on transportation to thenot lodges or any other purchases made by tourist outside lodges’ expenditures and would notlodges include spending on to the or spending on transportation transportation totourist the lodges or any other purchases made by outside of the lodges. spending on transportation to tourist the lodges or any other purchases made outside any other purchases made by by tourist outside of the lodges.

HUNTING AND H U N TIN INGGLA N D FIU SN HT ON DD GES H I N G A F Iother Slodges. H INclientele GmadeLbyOtourist DG ES any purchases outside Vulnerable of of the the lodges. F I S H I N G L O D G E S of the lodges. Vulnerable clientele Vulnerable clientele

21 21 21 21

Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full-time equivalents Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full-time equivalents

E gg//ffiissalhhiinngg llooddggeess iinn M Eccoonnoom miicc iim mppaacctt ooff hhuunnttiinnTot Maanniittoobbaa Dollar equivalents Dollar figures millions, jobs are equivalents E configures o mic inin immillions, pact ojobs f hare u nfull-time tfull-time inTot g/fisal h ing lodges in Manitoba

Tot al Dollar figures insales millions, jobs are full-time equivalents Business $65

Business sales $65 Tot al GDP $72 GDP $72 Business sales $65 Income $32 Income $32 Business sales $65 GDP $72 Jobs 808 Jobs 808 GDP $72 Income $32 Government revenue Government revenue Income $32 Jobs 808 Provincial $7 Provincial $7 Jobs 808 Government revenue $2 Local $2 Local Government revenue Provincial $7 Provincial Source: Probe Research Inc. Provincial $7 $2 Local Local Source: Probe Research Inc. $2 Local Source: Source:Probe Probe Research Research Inc. Inc.

Source: Probe Research Inc.

Lodges are particularly vulnerable in

Characteristics of hunting/fishing lodge visitors

tLhoisdgpeasnd aerempica.rticularly vulnerable in Lthoidsgpeasnadreempia c.rticularly vulnerable in

Characteristics of hunting/fishing lodge visitors Characteristics of hunting/fishing lodge visitors

this pandemic.

While lodges do have the advantage of being rural/outdoor oriented destinations, which While lodges do have the advantage of being have fared better than urban destinations in While lodges dooriented have the advantage of being rural/outdoor destinations, which the pandemic, their customer base makes rural/outdoor oriented which in have fared better than destinations, urban destinations them especially vulnerable. have fared better than urban destinations the pandemic, their customer base makes in the pandemic, their customer base makes The majority (and vast majority in the case of them especially vulnerable. them especially vulnerable. hunting and fly-in fishing lodges) of their The majority (and vast majority in the case of clientele are (and foreign and therefore business The majority vast majority inof the case of hunting and fly-in fishing lodges) their has beenand decimated due lodges) to the international hunting fishing of their clientele arefly-in foreign and therefore business border closings. clientele foreign and business has beenare decimated due therefore to the international has beenclosings. decimated due to theare international Additionally, most customers older than border border 50 and closings. may be less wiling to travel during the Additionally, most customers are older than pandemic. most customers are older than Additionally, 50 and may be less wiling to travel during the

Economic impact of hunting/fishing lodges in Manitoba Economic impact of hunting/fishing lodges in Manitoba

50 and may be less wiling to travel during the pandemic. pandemic.

78 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Foreign (hunt ing)

89%

Foreign (hunt ing) Foreign (hunt ing)

89% 89%

Foreign (fi shing)

57%

Foreign (fi shing) Foreign (fi shing)

57% 57%

50 or older+

55%

50 or older+ 50 or older+

55% 55% 60%

Source: Probe Research Inc.

0% 0%

Source: Probe Research Inc.0% Source: Probe Research Inc.

20% 20% 20%

40% 40% 40%

80%

Percent of customers

100%

60% 80% 100% 60% Percent of 80% customers 100% Percent of customers

HU UN NT TIIN NG GA AN ND D H H IN A F SN HT N GG ON DD GE ES S F IIU S H IIN G LLO D G H U N T I N G A N D F ISHIN G LODGES Seasonality Economic impacts F ISHIN G LODGES Seasonality Seasonality

mfaisyhninogt sloadvgeetshesu2s0t2 HAuvnaticncginaend a1 inh$ig 6h 5sAeilvlaia . eMm 0l2e1s.highm oscnocniinn anaiytonboat bsuasvienethses 2 sa sAevaascocnin . e may not save the 2021 highseason.

The lodge business highly seasonal, and the Probe Research inc.is estimates that in 2019, majority of lodges are only open from Maythe to The hunting lodge business is highlylodges seasonal, and 313 and/or fishing operated in October. The lodgeofThese business is highly seasonal, and majority lodgeslodges are only open frommillion Maythe to Manitoba. support $65 majority of lodges are only open from May inOctober. business sales, 808 jobs, andfrom $9 million in to While recent positive results vaccine October. provincial and local revenue. trials given thegovernment travel industry hope for Whilehave recent positive results from vaccine atrials strong rebound in 2021, face While recent positive results fromstill vaccine have given the travel industry hope Note that these figures arelodges based only on for substantial risks.the have given travel industry hope atrials strong rebound in 2021, lodges still facefor lodges’ expenditures and would not include a strong rebound in 2021, lodges still faceor substantial spending on risks. transportation lodges Widespread distribution ofto thethe vaccine substantial risks. any othertopurchases made bythe tourist outside appears be months off of (perhaps Q2 2021), Widespread distribution vaccine of the lodges. international borders may remain closed until Widespread the vaccine appears to bedistribution months off of (perhaps Q2 2021), after theto vaccine distribution, and closed leisure appears be borders months off (perhaps Q2 2021), international may remain until travelers are generally risk adverse in travel international borders may remain closed after the vaccine distribution, and leisure until

23 21 23 23

H UNThese TIfactors NGmayAseverely NDcurtail planning. after the vaccine distribution, and leisure travelers are generally risk adverse in travel F I S H I N G L O D G ES lodging business in two of the three busiest travelers are generally risk adverse in travel planning. These factors mayA severely curtail H U N T I N G N D months (May and June). planning. These severely curtail lodging business in two of A the three H UN Tfor Ifactors N Gmay N Dbusiest Outlook closed businesses F I S H I N G L O D G ES lodging business in two of the three busiest months (May and June). F I S H I N G L O D G E S months (May and June).

na incetsosf ohfulnotdingge/sfishing lodges in Manitoba ESceoansoom icl ibmupsa Percent of lodges open during the month Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full-time equivalents

Seasonal business of lodges 100% Percent during month Seasoofnalodges l bPeak usopen inemonths ss of the lodat gTot es al Percent of lodges open during the month 100% 90% sales risk in 2021 Business Peak months at $65

82%

86%

100% 86% GDP Peak months at $72 90% 80% risk in 2021 70% 82% 86% Income $32 90% risk in 2021 82% 80% 70% 62% Jobs 80870% 60% 80% 56% Government revenue 70% 60% 70% 62% 60% Provincial $7 70% 56% 62% 60% 50% 60% $2 Local 56% 60% 36% 50% 40% Source: Probe Research Inc. 32% 30% 30% 28% 50% 36% 26% 40% 30% 32% 30% 36% 30% 40% 28% 26% 32% 30% 20% 28% 30% 30% 26% 30% 20% 10% 20% 10% 0% 10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% Source: Probe Research Inc.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Feb Source: Probe Jan Research Inc. Mar Source: Probe Research Inc.

Outlook for closed businesses Hunting lodg es cclosed annot bebusinesses quickly replaced. Outlook for

Hunting lodges cannot be quickly replaced. Hunting lodges cannot be quickly replaced. In their study on Manitoba’s hunting and fishing lodges, Probe

Bankruptcy is sure to hit many travel and hospitality businesses

Research Inc. reports that

during the COVID-19 crisis. We expect that most bankrupt or

In hunting and fishinginlodges, • their “The study tenureonofManitoba’s many operators is… 18 years the Probe In their study on Manitoba’s hunting and fishing lodges, Probe Research Inc. reports that business” Research Inc. reports that • “The tenure of many operators is… 18 most yearssignificant in the “Word-of-mouth continues to be the • “The tenure of many operators is…18 years in the business” marketing mechanism” business” • “Word-of-mouth continues to camp, be the they mosttend significant “Once a client visits a lodge or to return • “Word-of-mouth continues to be the most significant marketing mechanism” repeatedly”. marketing mechanism” •The“Once client of visits a lodge or camp, tend to niche anature these businesses andthey reliance on return • “Once a client visits a lodge or camp, they tend to return repeatedly”. relationships with clients means that they cannot be quickly repeatedly”. replaced they are or otherwise closed. on The nicheifnature of bankrupt these businesses and reliance The niche nature of these businesses and reliance relationships with clients means that they cannot on be quickly

financially hotels will be purchased by a newbusinesses investor and Bankruptcystressed is sure to hit many travel and hospitality Bankruptcy is sure to hit many travel and hospitality businesses spend comparatively little time closed for business. during the COVID-19 crisis. We expect that most bankrupt or during the COVID-19 crisis.will Webeexpect that most bankrupt or and financially stressed purchased a new investor Financially stressed hotels hunting lodges may faceby a different fate. Large financially stressed hotels will be purchased by a new investor and spend comparatively time closedsector for business. investor/operators in little the hospitality will be more reluctant spend comparatively little time closed for business. to invest in stressed these businesses due to may a lackface of institutional knowledge Financially hunting lodges a different fate. Large Financially stressed hunting lodgesthe may facewill a different fate. Large of how these businesses heavy reliance on operatorinvestor/operators in theoperate, hospitality sector be more reluctant

relationships with clients means they cannot replaced if they are bankrupt or that otherwise closed.be quickly replaced if they are bankrupt or otherwise closed. 24

24 24

investor/operators inmore the hospitality beexercises, more reluctant client relationships, complex and lack to invest in these businesses due todue-diligence asector lack ofwill institutional knowledge to in these businesses due tothe a lack of institutional knowledge of ahow highthese financial upside.operate, ofinvest businesses heavy reliance on operator-

of howrelationships, these businesses the heavy reliance on operator-lack client moreoperate, complex due-diligence Overall, these complexities mean that once theseexercises, lodges areand closedclient relationships, more complex due-diligence exercises, and lack of a high financial upside. down, they may spend several years not operating, if they ever of a high financial upside. reopen. a potential long-term or permanent of a Overall,They theserepresent complexities mean that once these lodges are loss closedOverall, these complexities mean that once these lodges are closedresource for Manitoba. down, they may spend several years not operating, if they ever down, they may spend several yearslong-term not operating, if they ever reopen. They represent a potential or permanent loss of a reopen. represent a potential long-term or permanent loss of a resourceThey for Manitoba.

resource for Manitoba.

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 79

HUNTING AND H U N TIN INGGLA N D F I S H O D GES H U N T I N G A N D F ISHIN G LODGES Potential impacts Economic impacts F I S H I N G LODGES Potential impacts Potential impacts

Lo obs H usnstiensg caonudldfismhoinugntloto dgth eo sussuasntadisn o$f6j5 ao nilsd licooM nusaldninim ef. jobs L sm e tehenostusrsesavaneldensu.o m lio nsiiln togobouavnebtruntosmin Ln od ssm esillicoonusldinmgoouvnetrntomtehnoturseavnednsuo a ef. jobs and millions in government revenue. A 50%Research loss of hunting and fishing Probe inc. estimates thatlodges in 2019, would cost the province $33 million in A 50% loss ofand/or hunting and fishing 313 hunting fishing lodges lodges operated in business sales, 404 jobs, and $5 million in A 50%cost loss of and fishing lodges would thehunting province $33 million inmillion Manitoba. These lodges support $65 provincial and tax revenue. would cost the local province $33 million in in in business sales, 404 jobs, and $5$9 million in business sales, 808 jobs, and million

business sales, 404 government jobs, and $5 million in provincial andwould local tax revenue. provincial and local revenue. These losses not be quickly recouped provincial and local tax revenue. when the travel sector bankrupt Thesethat losses would not recovers be quickly recouped Note these figures are basedasonly on businesses are unlikely to find new investors These losses would not bewould quickly when the travel sector recovers asrecouped bankrupt lodges’ expenditures and not include in the the short-term. when travel sector recovers aslodges bankrupt businesses are unlikely to find new investors spending on transportation to the or businesses are unlikely to find new investors in the short-term. any other purchases made by tourist outside

Eccoonnoom miicc iim mppaacctt ooff hhuunnttiinngg//ffiisshhiinngg llooddggeess iinn M Maanniittoobbaa E Dollar figures in millions Dollar millions, Econfigures omicinim pact jobs of hare unfull-time t2019 ing/fisequivalents hingAnnual lodgescost in Mofanlost itobbusiness… a Tot al Dollar figures in millions Economic impact of hunImpact ting/fishing 25% lodges in M50% anitoba 75% 2019 Annual cost of lost business… Dollar figures in millions Business sales $65 Impact 25% 75% 2019 Annual of lost business… Business sales $65 $16 cost 50% $33 $49 GDP $72 Impact 25% 50% 75% GDP $72 $18 $36 $54 Business sales $65 $16 $33 $49 Income $32 Income $32 $8 $16 $24 GDP $72 $18 $36 $54 Business sales $65 $16 $33 $49 Jobs 808 Jobs 808 202 404 606 Income $32 $8 $16 $24 GDP $72 $18 $36 $54 Government revenue Government revenue Jobs 808 202 404 606 Income $32 $8 $16 $24 Provincial $7 Provincial $7 $2 $4 $5 Government revenue Jobs 808 202 404 606 $2 Local Local $2 $1 $1 $2 Provincial $7 $2 $4 $5 Government revenue Source: Sources: ProbeResearch ResearchInc. Inc.; Tourism $7 Economics $2 LocalProbe $2 $1 $1 $2 Provincial $4 $5 Local $2 $1 $1 $2 Sources: Probe Research Inc.; Tourism Economics Sources: Probe Research Inc.; Tourism Economics

in the the lodges. short-term. of

25 21 25 25

CHURCHILL’S CHURCHILL’S VH ISITOR EC OMY C L’O SN VISUITROCRHIELC O NOMY Economics V ISITOimpacts R ECONOMY Economics impacts Economics impacts Economics impacts

For a small town, Churchill’s visitor F llll a tto llll’’p s Fco oorr na aossmm mya am okw w n Clh h u ceh hiiim sav vciis st iiotto onrr the e en s ,,aC au rgrrc ova nin oscm m m aokkwe enss, a aCllha aurrg g ehiim m pa avccisttito oon nr tth he e Fe m l ta rce ll’sp e n o poccroro eyya . lm

nm ey.. makes a large impact on the ep pcrro on vviion cce pChurchills’ rovince. visitor economy supports 840 full Churchills’ visitor economy supports Churchills’ visitor economy supports 840 full time jobs with associated incomes of 840 $31 full time jobs jobs with associated incomes of $31 Churchills’ visitor economy supports full time associated incomes $31 million. It with also supports $10 millionof in840 local million. also supports $10 million local time jobsIt incomes million. Itwith also associated supports $10 millionofin in$31 local and provincial tax revenue. and provincial tax revenue. million. It also supports $10 million in local and provincial tax revenue. The majority of these impacts take place in and tax revenue. Theprovincial majorityNorthern of these impacts take take place place in in The majority of these impacts Manitoba’s Region. Manitoba’s Region. The majorityNorthern of these impacts Manitoba’s Northern Region. take place in Manitoba’s Northern Region.

27 27 27

27 80 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Economic impact of Churchill’s Visitor Economy Dollar millions, jobs time E o pa acctt o o Care h ufull h Viissiitto orr E Ecco on no om myy Ec co on nfigures om miic c iniim m p ff C hu rrcch iillll’’ssequivalents V Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full time equivalents M Nort figures equivalents EDollar cono mic in immillions, pact ojobs f Care hufull rchtime ill’sanit Visioba tor Econo my hern region

M oba M anit anit oba Business sales $64 Business sales $64 M anit oba Business sales $64 GDP $42 GDP $42 Business $64 GDP $42 Income sales $31 Income $31 GDP $42 Income $31 Jobs 840 Jobs 840 Income $31 Jobs 840 Government revenue Government revenue Jobs 840 Government revenue Provincial $8 Provincial $8 Government revenue Provincial $8 Local $2 Local $2 Source: WMC Provincial $8 Local $2 Source: WMC Source: WMC Local $2

Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full time equivalents

Source: WMC

Nort Nort hern hern region $39region $39 Nort hern region $39 $31 $31 $39 $31 $24 $24 $31 $24 628 628 $24 628 628 $6 $6 $6 $1 $1 $6 $1 $1

CHURCHILL’S CHURCHILL’S V ISITOR ECONOMY CHURCHILL’S VISITOR ECONOMY Economics impacts VISITOR ECONOMY Economic reliance Economic reliance reliance Economic

For a small town, Churchill’s visitor Support visitor e conomyfor maChurchill’s kes a large impaeconomy ct on the Support Churchill’s visitor economy Support for visitor is support for a feweconomy p romore vincethan .for Churchill’s is more than than itsupport support for aafor few is more for few businesses, is support the town’s

businesses, iseconomy support for for the the town’s town’s businesses, itit is support livelihood. Churchills’ visitor supports 840 full livelihood. livelihood. Churchill’s economy is largely dependent time jobs with associated incomes of $31 on Churchill’s economy largely dependent on Churchill’s economy isislargely dependent on tourism.ItWhile StatCan doesmillion not provide million. also supports $10 in local tourism. While StatCan does not provide tourism. While StatCan does provide statistics on communities thisnot small, we can and provincial tax revenue. statistics oncommunities communities thissmall, small,we we can can statistics on this provide some anecdotal evidence. The majority of these impacts take place in provide some some anecdotal anecdotalevidence. evidence. provide Churchill hosts approximately Manitoba’s Northern Region. 300 hotel Churchill hosts approximately 300 hotel Churchill approximately rooms forhosts a population of 899 300 or 33hotel hotel

roomsfor foraevery apopulation population of899 899or orAs 33ahotel hotel rooms of 33 rooms for 100 residents. province, rooms for every 100 residents. As a province, rooms for every 100 residents. As a province, Manitoba hosts 14,100 hotel room with a Manitoba hosts 14,100 hotel room with Manitoba 14,100 hotel aa populationhosts of 1.3 million, or 1room roomwith for every population of1.3 1.3 million,or or roommay forevery every population of million, 11room for tourism be 30 100 residents. Therefore,

100 residents. Therefore, tourism maybe be 30 30 100 residents. Therefore, tourism may times as important for Churchill compared to times as important for Churchill compared times as important for Churchill compared to the province. While this is a rough estimate,toit

CHURCHILL’S C U ROCRHE ILC LO ’SNOMY VH IHSU ITR C C H I L L ’ SNOMY thanhalf halfof ofall allwages wagesin inChurchill. Churchill. than V I S I T O R E C O Vulnerable clientele V ISITOR ECONOMY

Economic impact of Churchill’s Visitor Economy Dollar figures inimpact millions, of jobsChurchill’s are full time equivalents Economic visitor economy anit oba M anit obaeconomy Nort hernMregion Economic impact of Churchill’s visitor economy Economic impact of Churchill’s visitor M oba M anit Populat ion (2016) 1,278,365 Business sales $64 $39 anitoba Populat ion (2016) 1,278,365 Populat ion (2016) 1,278,365 Hot el rooms (2019) 14,121

GDP

$42

$31

Hot el rooms (2019) 14,121 Hot el Income $24 14,121 Hot el rooms rooms(2019) per 100 resident s $31 1.1 Hot el rooms per 100 resident s 1.1 Hot el rooms per 100 resident s 1.1 Jobs 840 628 Share of all wages support ed by t ourism (St at Can) 1.8%

Churchill Churchill Churchill 899 899 899 300 300 300 33.4 33.4 33.4 --

Share ofed allshare wages support edby by ourism (Stat Can) 1.8% Share of all wages ed ttourism Can) 1.8% ---Government revenue Est imat ofsupport all wages support ed (St by tat ourism* -53% Est imated ed share of~30x all wages wages support ed by ourism* 53% Est imat share of all support ttourism* 53% *Essentially, Churchill had as many hotel rooms perby resident as the province, Provincial $8 ed $6 so we----assume tourism

supports ~30x of the wages supported byhotel tourism as the province *Essentially, Churchill had~30x ~30x asmany many rooms perresident residentas asthe theprovince, province,so sowe weassume assumetourism tourism *Essentially, Churchill had as hotel rooms per Local Source: StatCan; WMC; STR;supported Tourism Economics supports ~30xof ofthe thewages wages bytourism tourismas asthe theprovince province supports ~30x supported by Source:StatCan; WMC StatCan;WMC; WMC;STR; STR;Tourism TourismEconomics Economics Source:

Other evidence of tourism’s importance can be gleaned from the town’s website Other evidence of oftourism’s tourism’s importance can be gleaned gleaned fromthe the town’s town’s website Other evidence importance can be from website -http://www.churchill.ca/ - whose primary purpose is to advertise the area to http://www.churchill.ca/ whose primary primary purpose to advertise the area area to http://www.churchill.ca/ --whose purpose isisto advertise the potential visitors. The community revitalization plan states that while the to needs of potential visitors. The community revitalization plan statesthat that while the needsaof of potential visitors. revitalization plan while needs local residents areThe thecommunity first priority, the second is “to states support and drivethe forward local residents are the first first priority, priority,the the second secondisis“to “tosupport support and anddrive drive forward forwardaa local residents are the bustling tourism industry”. bustlingtourism tourismindustry”. industry”. bustling

the province. While this rough estimate, the province. While isisaa rough estimate, is quite possible thatthis Tourism supports moreitit is quite possible that Tourism supports more isthan quite possible that Tourism supports more half of all wages in Churchill.

28 28 28

Vulnerable clientele Vulnerable clientele

Churchill’s visitor economy is at a

Churchill’s origin markets

sCehvuerrcehirlils’sk vin isi2to0r2e1c. onomy is at a C hvuercre hilrli’sskviinsit2o0r2e1c.onomy is at a se

Share of all visitors

severe risk in 2021.

Even as vaccine distribution becomes widespread in 2021, Churchill’s visitor Even as vaccine distribution becomes economy may not see major revitalization Even as vaccine distribution becomes widespread in 2021, Churchill’s visitor until 2022. widespread in 2021, Churchill’s visitor economy may not see major revitalization economy not see major revitalization until 2022. 80% of allmay visitors to Churchill are until 2022. international, and to these leisureare travelers may 80% of all visitors Churchill be hesitant to and book an international trip until 80% of all visitors to Churchill international, these leisureare travelers may thehesitant border istoopen and all restrictions on until international, and these leisure travelers may be book an international trip international travelers (such as a mandatory be hesitant to book an international trip until the border is open and all restrictions on quarantine) eliminated. Given leisure the border is are open and all restrictions on international travelers (such as a mandatory travelers’ risk adverse nature, this reopening international travelers (such Given as a mandatory quarantine) are eliminated. leisure may not occur in-time to save the quarantine) areadverse eliminated. Given leisure travelers’ risk nature, thiscritically reopening important 2021 summer season, and travelers’ risk adverse nature, this reopening may not occur in-time to save the critically Churchill’s visitor economy may may not occur in-time to save thelanguish criticallyfor important 2021 summer season, and another year. important 2021 summer season, and Churchill’s visitor economy may languish for 29 29

Churchill’s origin markets Share C hurcofhall illvisitors ’s origin markets Share of all visitors Other

Canada Other 15% Canada Other Manitoba Canada 15% 4% 15% Manitoba 4% Manitoba 4%

US 46% US 46% US 46% Source: WMC (estimate by local operators)

Overseas 34% Overseas 34% Overseas 34%

80% of clients are 80% of international clients 80% of are clients are international international

Source: WMC (estimate by local operators) Source: WMC (estimate by local operators)

Churchill’s visitor economy may languish for another year. another year. Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 81

CHURCHILL’S C U ROCRHE ILC LO ’SNOMY VH IHSU ITR C C H I L L ’ SNOMY V I S I T O R E C O What is at stake Economics V ISITOimpacts R ECONOMY What is at stake What is at stake

Cohruarcshm illa ’sll litvoewlinh,oC od F huarncd hilal’sflavg issithoirp attraction for alra Cchaounnriotcom hbilyal’sm ie vkea apflaacgtsohnipthaettraction for eM elitshroaisokld a.ragnedim C hcb iella.’salirveealih auvnriicnto to rio skd. and a flagship attraction for pMrho

Economic impact of Churchill’s Visitor Economy Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full time equivalents

Business sales GDP The economic costs of not supporting Churchill’s visitor Churchills’ visitor economy supports 840 full Income economy are plainly apparent: $42ofmillion in GDPvisitor annually for The economic costs of notincomes supporting Churchill’s time jobs with associated $31 Jobs the province $10 million in$42 provincial/local tax revenue.for The economic costs ofapparent: not supporting Churchill’s visitor economy are and plainly million in GDP annually million. It also supports $10 million in local Government revenue However,are there are apparent: additional $42 factors to consider. economy plainly million in GDP annually for

Manitoba are at risk.

M anit oba $64 $42 $31 840

the province million in provincial/local tax revenue. and provincialand tax $10 revenue. the province and $10 million infactors provincial/local tax revenue. Provincial However, are additional to consider. The majority visitorthere economy the primary source The of theseisimpacts take place inof income for Local However, therethis aretown additional factors to consider. Churchill, of 899 individuals willincome struggle The visitorand economy isRegion. the primary source of forfor Manitoba’s Northern

Nort hern region $39 $31 $24 628

$8 $2

$6 $1

Source: WMC

existence strong rebound in the of travel sector. The visitorwithout economy is the source income for for Churchill, and this atown ofprimary 899 individuals will struggle Additionally, Churchill is an internationally known flagship Churchill, and this town of 899 individuals will struggle existence without a strong rebound in the travel sector.for for Manitoba’s visitor The destination is featured in for existence without aeconomy. strong in the travel sector. Additionally, Churchill is anrebound internationally known flagship promotions and advertisements for the province, along with Additionally, Churchill is an internationally known flagship Manitoba’s visitor economy. The destination is featured in for travel and human-interest across the globe. Manitoba’s visitor economy.media The destination is featured in promotions and advertisements for the province, along with promotions and advertisements the province, along with travel and human-interest mediafor across the globe. travel and human-interest media across the globe.

30 27 30

FUNDING FOR FUNDING FOR T ON URIN SM F PRR OMOTION F TU OUD RISG M PO ROMOTION Forecast T OURISM PROMOTION Forecast Forecast Forecast

Manitoba’s visitor economy will not M n ll n a niirtteo ocb boa av’’sservviifs sroiitto orr te ehc ceo oC no oOm mVy yIDw wii-ll1 n ott fM ua llyn m 9o fp llllnyyndirrtee eom oa eurrvnifftsrrilo oit2m m0r 2tteh h4ce e.oC C OmV VyIID Dwi--l1 9ot M o noO ln fu uaa ccbo 1 9 icvv’se p a n d e m i c u n t i l 2 0 2 4 . fuallnydreem coicveurnftrilo2m02th4e. COVID -19 p

p andsection emic uwill ntil examine 2024. the impact that This

This examine the that This section sectionorwill will examinepublic the impact impact that increasing decreasing funding to increasing or decreasing public funding to This section examine the on impact increasing orwill decreasing public funding to Travel Manitoba would have the that

Travel would on the increasing or decreasing public to Travel Manitoba Manitoba would have have onfunding the provincial economy. provincial economy. Travel Manitoba would have on the provincial economy. In our baseline forecast (in which public provincial economy. In (in public In our our baseline baseline forecast (in which which public funding remainsforecast unchanged), visitor spending funding remains unchanged), visitor spending In our (in which public funding remainsforecast unchanged), visitor spending will notbaseline recover to its 2019 values until 2024. will not not recover recover to its 2019 2019 values values until 2024. funding remainsto unchanged), visitor spending will its until 2024. will not recover to its 2019 values until 2024.

32 32 32 32

82 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Baseline forecast for visitor spending in Manitoba Dollars, B n c tt ffo tto rr s Ba as se elliimillions, ne e ffo orre elosses ca as scompared orr v viis siito o2019 sp pe en nd diin ng g iin nM Ma an niitto ob ba a 2019 2020 2021 2022 Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 Dollars, Baselimillions, ne forelosses cascompared t for visito to2019 r spending in Manitoba 2019 Visit or Spending $1,628 2019 Dollars, millions, losses compared to 2019 Visit or Spending $1,628 Losses Visit or Spending $1,628 2019-Sources: Tourism Economics-Losses Losses -Visit orStatCan; Spending $1,628 Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics Sources: LossesStatCan; Tourism Economics-Sources: StatCan; Tourism Economics

2020 $780 2020 $780 $849 $780 2020 $849 $849 $780 $849

2021 $1,021 2021 $1,021 $607 $1,021 2021 $607 $607 $1,021 $607

2022 $1,368 2022 $1,368 $260 $1,368 2022 $260 $260 $1,368 $260

2023 2023 $1,541 2023 $1,541 $87 $1,541 2023 $87 $87 $1,541 $87

2024 2024 $1,653 2024 $1,653 $1,653 2024---$1,653 --

FUNDING FOR FUNDING FOR TOURISM T O U R I S M P R O M OTION FUNDING FOR TOURISM PROMOTION Forecast PROMOTION 2022 2022 impact impact 2022 impact

Manitoba’s visitor economy will not Baseline forecast for visitor spending in Manitoba Additional Travel Travel Manitoba Manitoba funding funding could could generate generate Dollars, millions, losses compared Impactto of of changing Travel Travel Manitoba Manitoba funding, funding, 2022 2022 2019 Additional Impact changing fully recover from the COVID -19 Dollars, millions 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Dollars, millions $56 million of visitor spending annually and produce a Additional Travel funding could generate of changing Travel Manitoba funding,$2m 2022 $56 of annually and produce aVisit or Spending Impact p andmillion emic u ntivisitor l 20Manitoba 24.spending $1m Scenario Scenario $1,628 $780 $1,021 $1,368 $1,541 $1,653 $1m Scenario $2m Scenario Dollars, millions tax return times the additional investment. $56 million6 visitor annually and produce aLosses tax return 6of times thespending additional investment. Addit ional $1.0 -- Travel $849M B funding $607 $260 $87 $2.0 -tax times the additional Thisreturn section6will examine the impactinvestment. that

To potential benefit of Travel To evaluate evaluateorthe the potentialpublic benefit of increasing increasing Travel Manitoba’s Manitoba’s increasing decreasing funding to funding, we created two additional scenarios; the $2m Scenario and and To evaluate the potential benefit of increasing Travel funding, we created twohave additional Scenario Travel Manitoba would on thescenarios; the $2mManitoba’s $1m Scenario in which annual public funding is increased by these funding, weeconomy. created twoannual additional $2m Scenario and $1m Scenario in which publicscenarios; funding isthe increased by these provincial amounts in 2021 and all subsequent years. $1m Scenario in which annual public funding is increased by these amounts in 2021 and all subsequent years. In our baseline forecast (in which public amounts in 2021 and all subsequent years. for tourism promotion The stabilized stabilized impact of increased increased funding The impact of for tourism promotion funding remains unchanged), visitorfunding spending would occur in inimpact 2022, as as 2021 would represent ramp-up year as as The stabilized of increased funding for tourism promotion would occur 2022, 2021 would represent aa ramp-up year will not recover to its 2019 values until 2024. there are are lagsinbetween between revenue collection, disbursement, campaign would occur 2022, as revenue 2021 would represent a ramp-up year as there lags collection, disbursement, campaign deployment, and visitorsrevenue arriving. there are lagsand between collection, disbursement, campaign deployment, visitors arriving.

FUNDING FOR TOURISM FUNDING FOR TOURISM The $2m Scenario would generate $56 in annual PROMOTION visitor spending, support $7 million in provincial/local The $2m Scenarioand would generate $56 million million in additional additionaltaxes. annual FUNDING FOR TOURISM visitor spending, and support $12 million in provincial/local taxes. The $2m Scenario would generate $56 million in additional annual Baseline Forecast visitor spending, and support $12 million in provincial/local taxes. PROMOTION visitor spending, and support $12 million in provincial/local taxes. Baseline Forecast PROMOTION deployment, and visitors The $1m $1m Scenario Scenario would arriving. generate $30 The would generate $30 million million in in additional additional annual annual visitor spending, and support $7 million in provincial/local taxes. The $1m Scenario would generate $30 million in additional annual visitor spending, and support $7 million in provincial/local taxes.

32 33 33 33

Baseline Forecast

Addit ional Travel M B funding $1m$1.0 Scenario 30-t o-1 Addit ional M B funding $1.0 VisitTravel or Spending ROI* 30-t o-1 Increment al visit or spending $30 Visit or Spending ROI* 30-t o-1 Increment al visit or spending $30

Sources: StatCan; Tourism EconomicsVisit or Spending ROI*

Visitor spending Increment al visitsupported… or spending $30 $56 Visitor spending supported… Provincial/ local $6.6 $12.2 Provincial/ local tt axes axes $6.6 $12.2 Visitor spending supported… Provincial income $14.1 $26.3 Provincial $14.1 $26.3 Provincial/ localincome t axes $6.6 $12.2 Provincial jobs 252 470 Provincial jobs 252 470 Provincial income $14.1 $26.3 Provincial jobs 252 470o-1 Provincial/ local t ax ROI 6.6-t o-1 6.1-t Provincial/ local t ax ROI 6.6-t o-1 6.1-t o-1 Provincial income ROI 14.1-t o-1 13.2-t o-1 Provinciallocal income 14.1-t o-1 13.2-t o-1 Provincial/ t ax ROI ROI 6.6-t o-1 6.1-t o-1 *Travel Manitoba Manitoba has has not not conducted conducted an an ROI ROI or or advertising advertising effectiveness effectiveness study. study. *Travel Provincial income ROI 14.1-t o-1 13.2-t o-1 A review of the ROI of tourism campaigns was completed as part of this study.

A review of the ROI of tourism campaigns was completed as part of this study. *Travel not conducted ROI or advertising effectiveness Based on onManitoba this meta metahas -analysis, we have have an conservatively placed the the ROI for for the thestudy. $1m Based this -analysis, we conservatively placed ROI $1m A review at of30-to-1 the ROIand of tourism completed part Scenario. of this study. Scenario at 30-to-1 and loweredcampaigns this ROI ROI to towas 28-to-1 for the theas$1m $1m Scenario. Scenario lowered this 28-to-1 for Based on this would meta -analysis, conservatively the ROI for the $1m These figures figures would rank near nearwe thehave bottom of our our metameta-placed analysis. These rank the bottom of analysis. Scenario Tourism at 30-to-1 and lowered this ROI to 28-to-1 for the $1m Scenario. Sources: Tourism Economics; Statcan Sources: Economics; Statcan These figures would rank near the bottom of our meta- analysis. Sources: Tourism Economics; Statcan

The $2m Scenario would provide $120

Key metrics on scenario impacts

million over five years. The The $2m $2m Scenario Scenario would would provide provide $120 $120

Key Key metrics metrics on on scenario scenario impacts impacts

million million over over five five years. years. The $2m Scenario would provide $120

Visitor spending on scenario impacts Key metrics

million over five years.

From 2021 to 2025, the $1m Scenario would

generate $135 million visitor spending and From From 2021 2021 to to 2025, 2025, the thein$1m $1m Scenario Scenario would would $30 million in provincial/local taxes whileand generate generate $135 $135 million million in$1m visitor visitor spending spending and From 2021 to 2025, thein Scenario would supporting 222 jobs annually. $30 $30 million million in in provincial/local provincial/local taxes taxes while while generate $135 million in visitor spending and supporting supporting 222 jobs jobs annually. Meanwhile, $2mannually. Scenariotaxes wouldwhile $30 million 222 inthe provincial/local generate $252 in visitor spending, supporting 222 jobs Meanwhile, Meanwhile, the themillion $2m $2mannually. Scenario Scenario would would

which would sustain $55 millionspending, in generate generate $252 $252 million in in visitor visitor spending, Meanwhile, themillion $2m Scenario would provincial/local taxes$55 andmillion 414 jobs which which would would sustain sustain $55 million in in annually. generate $252 million in visitor spending, provincial/local provincial/local taxes taxes$55 and andmillion 414 414 jobs jobs annually. which would sustain in annually. provincial/local taxes and 414 jobs annually.

$2m$2.0 Scenario 28-t o-1 $2.0 28-t o-1 $56 28-t o-1 $56

Dollar figures in millions, jobs are full time equivalents,

'21-'25 t ot al

2019 2020 2021 Dollar Dollar figures figures in in millions, millions,jobs jobs are are full full time time equivalents, equivalents,

2022

2023

2024

2025

Baseline Scenario $780 2021 $1,021 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 Dollar figures in millions, jobs are $1,628 full time equivalents,

$1,368 2022 2022 $1,398 $1,424 $1,368 $1,368 2022 $1,398 $1,398 $1,368 $1.0 $1,424 $1,424 $1,398 $30 $1,424 $6.6 $1.0 $1.0 $14.1 $30 $30 $1.0 249 $6.6 $6.6 $30 $14.1 $14.1 $6.6 $2.0 249 249 $14.1 $56 249 $12.2 $2.0 $2.0 $26.3 $56 $56 $2.0 466 $12.2 $12.2 $56 $26.3 $26.3 $12.2 466 466 $26.3 466

$1,541 2023 2023 $1,571 $1,597 $1,541 $1,541 2023 $1,571 $1,571 $1,541 $1.0 $1,597 $1,597 $1,571 $30.0 $1,597 $6.6 $1.0 $1.0 $14.1 $30.0 $30.0 $1.0 247 $6.6 $6.6 $30.0 $14.1 $14.1 $6.6 $2.0 247 247 $14.1 $56.0 247 $12.2 $2.0 $2.0 $26.3 $56.0 $56.0 $2.0 461 $12.2 $12.2 $56.0 $26.3 $26.3 $12.2 461 461 $26.3 461

$1,653 2024 2024 $1,683 $1,709 $1,653 $1,653 2024 $1,683 $1,683 $1,653 $1.0 $1,709 $1,709 $1,683 $30.0 $1,709 $6.6 $1.0 $1.0 $14.1 $30.0 $30.0 $1.0 245 $6.6 $6.6 $30.0 $14.1 $14.1 $6.6 $2.0 245 245 $14.1 $56.0 245 $12.2 $2.0 $2.0 $26.3 $56.0 $56.0 $2.0 456 $12.2 $12.2 $56.0 $26.3 $26.3 $12.2 456 456 $26.3 456

'21-'25 '21-'25 $1,791 2025 2025 t$6,353 tot otal al $1,821 '21-'25 $6,473 $1,847 $6,353 $1,791 $1,791 2025 t$6,353 ot al $6,577 $1,821 $1,821 $6,473 $6,473 $1,791 $1.0 $6,353 $1,847 $1,847 $5 $6,577 $6,577 $1,821 $30.0 $6,473 $135 $1,847 $6.6 $6,577 $1.0 $1.0 $30 $5 $5 $14.1 $30.0 $30.0 $63 $135 $135 $1.0 242 $6.6 $6.6 $5 222* $30 $30 $30.0 $14.1 $14.1 $135 $63 $63 $6.6 $2.0 242 242 $30 $10 222* 222* $14.1 $56.0 $63 $252 242 $12.2 $2.0 $2.0 222* $55 $10 $10 $26.3 $56.0 $56.0 $118 $252 $252 $2.0 452 $12.2 $12.2 $10 414* $55 $55 $56.0 $26.3 $26.3 $252 $118 $118 $12.2 452 452 $55 414* 414* $26.3 $118 452 414*

$1mspending Scenario --Visitor Visitor spending $2m Scenario -Baseline Baseline Scenario Scenario $1,628 $1,628 $780 $780 2019-2020 Visitor Additional impact in $1m Scenario -$1m $1mspending Scenario Scenario ---Baseline Scenario $780 AdditScenario ional Travel M B funding $1,628 $2m $2m Scenario ----$1m -Visit Scenario or spending --Additional Additional impact impact in in $1m $1mScenario Scenario -$2m Scenario --Provincial/ local t axes Addit Addit ional ional Travel Travel M MB B funding funding --Additional impact in $1m Scenario -Wages Visit Visit or or spending spending ---Addit M B funding --Jobs ional Travel Provincial/ Provincial/ local local ttaxes axes --Visit or spending -Additional impact in $2m Scenario -Wages Wages --Provincial/ t axes --Addit Travel M B funding --Jobs Jobs ional local Wages ---Visit or spending Additional Additional impact impact in in $2m $2mScenario Scenario -Jobs Provincial/ local t axes --Addit Addit ional ional Travel Travel M MB B funding funding --Additional impact in $2m Scenario -Wages spending ---Visit Visitor or spending Addit M B funding Jobs ional Travel Provincial/ Provincial/ local local ttaxes axes ----spending -Visit oraverage Wages Wages -*annual of jobs supported ---Provincial/ localEconomics t axes --Source: Jobs Jobs Tourism --Wages -*annual *annual average average of of jobs jobs supported supported -Jobs Tourism --Source: Source: Tourism Economics Economics

$1,036 $1,049 $1,021 $1,021 2021 $1,036 $1,036 $1,021 $1.0 $1,049 $1,049 $1,036 $15.0 $1,049 $3.3 $1.0 $1.0 $7.0 $15.0 $15.0 $1.0 126 $3.3 $3.3 $15.0 $7.0 $7.0 $3.3 $2.0 126 126 $7.0 $28.0 126 $6.1 $2.0 $2.0 $13.2 $28.0 $28.0 $2.0 235 $6.1 $6.1 $28.0 $13.2 $13.2 $6.1 235 235 $13.2 235

*annual average of jobs supported Source: Tourism Economics

34 34

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 83

A PPE N D I X C Photo Credits

84 • Manitoba Tourism Strategy

Photo Credits Erick Stoen, cover page Irene Moore, pages 2 – 3 Build Films, page 4 – 5 Travel Manitoba, page 6 – 7 RBC Convention Centre, page 8 – 9 Wildhouse Media, page 11 Travel Manitoba, page 13 Jerry Grajewski, page 14 – 15 Travel Manitoba, page 19 Travel Manitoba, page 21 Visual Soul Studios, page 23 Travel Manitoba, page 26 Baked Expectations, Travel Manitoba, page 27 Clementine, Destination Canada, page 27 Ti-Beauville, Destination Canada, page 27 Cedar and Main, Liliya Medynska, page 27 Indigenous Day Live, Travel Manitoba, page 28 Thermëa, JP Media Works, page 28 Inn at The Forks, Travel Manitoba, page 28 Travel Manitoba, page 29 Dave Reede, page 30 – 31 Travel Manitoba, page 32 Travel Manitoba, page 34 David Quiring, page 36 Travel Manitoba, page 38 Travel Manitoba, page 40 Brian Sytnyk, page 42 – 43 Travel Manitoba, page 44 – 45 Travel Manitoba, page 46 – 47 Ashlyn George, page 51 Wander The Map, page 55 Travel Manitoba, page 59 May Contain Studios, page 63 JP Media Works, page 64 – 65

Manitoba Tourism Strategy • 85

travelmanitoba.com

mbchamber.mb.ca

Colin Ferguson, President & CEO, Travel Manitoba E: coferguson@travelmanitoba.com / t: 204 927-7800

gov.mb.ca