Daily Market Reflection 27st April 2016 USDINR
Market Outlook Rupee opened the session on weak note but recovered gradually during the session. Markets are awaited for the monetary decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, the latter of which is expected to announce new stimulus measures. Some other key economic indicators are also lined up to be released in this week; majorly towards the latter half of the week including first quarter GDP reports from the U.K. and U.S. and inflation data from the eurozone.
Reference Rate Currency
Fundamental News
Yen gains versus dollar as BOJ, Fed meetings loom. United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals registered at 45.096K, below expectations (46.1K) in March. Italy Trade Balance non-EU increased to €4.04B in March from previous €2.62B. Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.1% to 0.8% in March.
Date
Date
25-04-16
26-04-16
USDINR
66.6500
66.5350
-0.17%
EURINR
75.0200
75.0475
0.04%
GBPINR
96.4400
96.8575
0.43%
JPYINR
59.9800
59.9625
-0.03%
% Chg
Currency
Event
Forecast
Previous
10:00am
JPY
All Industries Activity m/m
-1.3%
2.0%
1:30pm
EUR
M3 Money Supply y/y
5.0%
5.0%
2:00pm
GBP
Prelim GDP q/q
0.4%
0.6%
7:30pm
USD
Pending Home Sales m/m
0.3%
3.5%
11:30pm
USD
FOMC Statement
-
-
USD
Federal Funds Rate
<0.50%
<0.50%
11:30pm
Date 26-04-16 66.7330 75.1814 96.7695 60.2200
% Change 0.07% 0.30% 0.46% 0.38%
Currencies vs $ Currency
Close (5:00pm) 66.5300 95.11 1.1286 1.4560 110.90
Prev Close 66.6500 94.57 1.1271 1.4491 110.92
% Chg -0.17% -0.56% -0.13% -0.47% 0.01%
Global Commodities
Event Calendar (27th April 2016) Time
USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR
Rupee Dollar Index Euro Pound Japnese Yen
Currency Future Currency
Date 25-04-16 66.6839 74.9527 96.3249 59.9900
Commodity Gold Silver Crude Copper
Close 1233.60 16.96 43.08 2.2190
Prev.Close 1235.89 16.94 42.84 2.2245
% Chg 0.18% -0.11% -0.55% 0.24%
Our Previous calls update Intraday super star Date Currency Entry 25/04 Trifid special
Exit -
P/L -
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Overview USDINR After the consecutive three day hike in the counter, Rupee found some strength against the dollar. It opened on strong note but strong rebounding was seen in the pair which gradually took it towards the two days lowsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. On daily charts, it is facing stiff resistance around 100 day EMA i.e. 67.0000 and todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rebounding from higher levels shows probability of short reversals from current levels and now 66.3000-66.0500 is seen as support range for USDINR while strict resistance is still maintained near 67.0000.
R1 66.9000
R2 67.1000
S1 66.3000
S2 66.0500
EURINR The pair is strongly consolidating in the same tight range since last four consecutive sessions and another noticeable thing is that it is constantly facing resistance at higher levels and closing at lower levels. On daily charts, a trend line is seen coming from recent lows which is acting as strong support and if it provides negative breakout on daily charts then free fall can be seen in the counter below 74.8000 and it may find next support near 100 day EMA i.e. 74.4000. On higher side, 75.7500 is acting as major resistance from current levels.
R1 75.4000
R2 75.7500
S1 74.8000
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S2 74.3000
Overview GBPINR It was stupendous rally so shown by GBPINR in the last five consecutive sessions. It was a gap up opening for the day and the pair was able to sustain on higher side for the whole intraday session. On daily charts, it has been observed that it showed strong pull back from the lower band of channel pattern and has reached towards the 100 day EMA which may act as critical point for the counter. From current levels, 97.2000 is seen as key resistance while any closing below 96.5000 can trigger for selling pressure.
R1 97.2000
R2 97.5000
S1 95.5000
S2 93.1000
JPYINR It has shown bearish rally since last five consecutive sessions facing constant resistance at higher levels. It was a gap up opening for the pair but it was unable to sustain at higher levels and soon dragged lower and breached the previous dayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lows also. On daily chart, strong rebounding is seen from 52 week highs and the counter strongly dropped down. Trend line is seen in the chart coming from recent lows and any breakout from such levels i.e. 59.8800 and any closing below it can further negate the sentiments and may drop towards the nearest support of 59.6000-59.4000. On higher side, resistance so seen is 60.3000-60.5000.
R1 60.3000
R2 60.6000
S1 59.8000
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S2 59.6000
Intraday Super Star (Premium Section)
GBPINR surpassed the trend line on daily charts so coming from highs as seen in the chart above. It has also faced resistance of psychological levels of 97.0000. Bullishness may continue above this level. BUY ABOVE 97.0000 TARGETS 97.1500/97.3000 SL 96.8000.
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Trifid Special (Premium Section)
JPYINR found support around the trend line so coming from recent lows and any closing below it can further drag the pair in southward direction. SELL BELOW 59.8500 TARGET 59.5500 SL 60.2000.
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