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R EE E K L Y P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals, 18 JAN – 22 JAN 2016
Energy…
MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures posted their biggest gain in six weeks Friday as a global rout in stock markets and other risk assets—and comments by a Federal Reserve board member— stoked views that the U.S. central bank could pause plans to raise interest rates. Gold futures settled 1.6% higher at $1,090.70 a troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, their largest daily gain since December 4. Gold, which has historically functioned as a safe-haven investment asset in turbulent times, has risen nearly 3% since the start of the New Year amid evidence of weakening global economic growth and stock market turbulence around the world. Friday’s market rout got started in Asia, where China’s Shanghai composite stock index fell 3.6% and entered bearmarket territory, having lost 20% since late December. European stocks suffered a similar 2.8% downdraft on the Stoxx Europe 600, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 2% in early trading as well. Oil prices lost another 4.9%, with the U.S. contract sinking below $30 a barrel to $29.64. Economic data has raised worries about China’s growth rate, which the world has been looking to for a source of strength, and the collapse in oil and other commodity prices has punished the shares of natural resources companies such as oil producers and miners. Oil prices crashed 6 per cent on Friday to close below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years, resuming this year's breathtaking rout as Chinese stock markets fell further and traders braced for an imminent rise in Iran's exports. After closing higher for the first time in eight sessions on Thursday, US and Brent crude futures plumbed new lows, taking this year's losses to more than 20 per cent, the worst two-week decline since the 2008 financial crisis. The slump was not over yet, some analysts warned, as the lifting of sanctions on Iran opens the door to a wave of new oil. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected on Saturday to issue its report on Iran's compliance with an agreement to curb its nuclear program, potentially triggering the lifting of Western sanctions. Shares in China, the world's No. 2 oil consumer, tumbled on Friday, with the Shanghai index ending down 3.5 per cent to its lowest close since December 2014 and the yuan weakening sharply offshore. Adding to fuel demand concerns, US data showed retail sales fell and industrial production weakened in December. Brent settled down $1.94, or 6.3 per cent, at $28.94 a barrel, It fell as far as $28.82, the lowest since February 2004. Copper tumbled to its lowest since May 2009 on Friday, pressured by a slide in oil prices plus further losses in shares and the offshore currency in China, where weak loan data undermined sentiment. Chinese shares fell below last month's low while the yuan weakened sharply offshore, knocking confidence about demand for metals in the world's top consumer of raw materials. Oil futures plunged again below $30 a barrel as the market braced for more Iranian oil exports. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended down 1.9 percent at $4,331 a ton, having hit the weakest since May 2009 at $4,318 earlier. Prices are down 8 percent this month, hitting a succession of multi-year lows in the New Year as investor sentiment soured. Physical demand for copper remained steady in China with local buyers willing to pay higher premiums as the futures have dropped. Copper prices in the local physical market traded at a 160 yuan premium against the front month ShFE contract this week, the highest since early December. Those upbeat physical signals, however, have been overwhelmed by negative data about the health of the Chinese economy, such as loan data on Friday. Chinese banks extended 597.8 billion yuan in net-new yuan loans in December, well below the previous month's lending.
Gold Posts Biggest Gain in Six Weeks amid Rout in Stocks, Oil.
Oil plunges below $29 on prospects of more Iran crude, China worries.
Copper slides to 61/2 year low on oil, Chinese rout.
ECONOMIC CALENDER DATE & TIME
DESCRIPTION
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
Jan 18 All Day
Bank Holiday
Jan 19 8:30pm
NAHB Housing Market Index
61
61
Jan 20 2:30am
TIC Long-Term Purchases
Day 1 ALL
WEF Annual Meetings
7:00pm
Building Permits
1.20M
1.28M
7:00pm
CPI m/m
0.0%
0.0%
7:00pm
Core CPI m/m
0.2%
0.2%
7:00pm
Housing Starts
1.19M
1.17M
9:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories
Jan 21 Day 2 ALL
WEF Annual Meetings
7:00pm
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
-3.1
-5.9
7:00pm
Unemployment Claims
281K
284K
9:00pm
Natural Gas Storage
Jan 22 Day 3 ALL
WEF Annual Meetings
8:15pm
Flash Manufacturing PMI
51.5
51.2
8:30pm
Existing Home Sales
5.21M
4.76M
8:30pm
CB Leading Index m/m
-0.1%
0.4%
Jan 23 Day 4 ALL
WEF Annual Meetings
-16.6B
0.2M
-168B
GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX GOLD showed sideways to positive movement due strong USDINR and sharp fall in equity market which leads to resists it around 50% retracement level, also closed above it. Now, if it is able to maintain above 26250 then next major resistance level is seen around 26500. On lower side if it sustain below 25700 then again it can drag up to support level of 25350.
PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 26250 for the targets of 2675027000, with stop loss of 25500.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
25740
25435
25000
26250
26625
26935
SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX SILVER last week showed sideways movement and closed below 23.6% retracement level and near to its three year low which is also an important support level i.e. 33000. Now, on lower side if it sustains below 33500 then next support level is seen in the range of 33000-32500. On higher side if it maintains above 34600 then only correction may seen up to resistance level of 35200.
STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 33500 for the target of 32500, with stop loss of 34700.
PIVOT TABLE S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
33500
33030
32500
34600
35150
35630
CRUDEOIL TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Crude oil showed bearish movement after reverting from upper band of channel pattern it made a seven year low of 1987 and closed around lower band of channel pattern. Now, if it sustain below 1980 then next important support level is seen around 1850. On the other hand if it maintain above 2160 then correction on higher side lead it upto resistance level of 2300.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the targets of 1850-1650, with stop loss of 2350.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
1950
1850
1700
2165
2295
2425
COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper last week showed downward movement and gave breakout of its recent low i.e. 293.50 and also closed around it. Now, if it sustain below 293 then the next important support level is seen around 281. On higher side if it maintain above 300 then only correction will lead it up to reistance level of 310.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 291, with stop loss of 305 for the targets of 281.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
291.50
284
275
300
307.50
315
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