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W
R EE E K L Y P O R T
04 APR – 08 APR 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee hits three-month high of 66.26, up 11 paise. Profit-taking hurts Asia FX ahead of U.S. jobs data; yuan down. Asia FX bulls gather pace as Yellen tempers U.S. rate hike expectations. China Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Jumps as Confidence Recovers. CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
66.6675
66.5050
Indian Rupee gained for another week on the selling of American currency by Banks and exporters and successive foreign fund inflows. Indian currency is gaining since last few weeks and closed strong at three month highs against the greenback. The sentiments improved for rupee due to weakening of dollar after US Fed Reserve Chair Janet Yellen comments that the rate hike will not be likely before June. Also, strong equity markets which gained around 1.5% in this week also supported rupee. In the coming week, key event to be focused is RBI Monetary Policy on Tuesday.
KEY RATES As on 31/03/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
66.3329
REPO RATE
6.75%
-0.24
EURINR
74.6600
75.7200
1.41
REVERSE REPO
5.75%
GBPINR
94.6200
95.8675
1.31
CRR
4%
JPYINR
59.1650
59.2300
0.10
INFLATION
-0.91%
USDINR
USDINR last week also sustained around lower levels and dragged down heavily after Fed Chair Yellen’s speech and finally closed the week on negative note. On daily charts, it closed below the trend line which is acting as strong support for the pair. Now, 66.4000-66.0000 is seen as immediate support range while 66.9000 may act as strict resistance.
EURINR
EURINR last week gained momentum in every session after a weak start and closed on a strong note. If it is able to hold above the resistance of 76.1000 then it may gain more strength otherwise 75.1000 is seen as immediate support and any closing below it can again drag it to lower levels.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
66.2000
65.9000
65.6000
66.9000
67.2000
67.5000
EURINR
75.2000
74.8000
74.3000
76.2000
76.6000
77.0000
GBPINR
95.2000
94.6000
94.0000
96.3000
97.0000
97.6000
JPYINR
58.6000
58.0000
57.3000
59.6000
60.2000
60.8000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES UK manufacturing sector remains subdued in March. Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index Improved in March. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 276,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week. COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
05-APR-16
7:30 PM
US
ISM Non Manufacturing PMI
-
53.4
06-APR-16
11:30 PM
US
FOMC Meeting Minutes
-
-
US
Unemployment Claims
-
276K
US
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
-
-
DATE
TIME
6:00 07-APR-16 PM 3:00 08-APR-16 AM
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