WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM M
W
R EE E K L Y P O R T
16 MAY – 20 MAY 2016
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Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS China’s Credit Expansion Moderates Amid Warning on Debt Binge. Yen edges up, markets eye Bank of Japan stimulus. GDP up by 0.5% in both the euro area and the EU28. Yuan slips, midpoint seen aligning with weaker FX view.
CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
66.8000
66.9350
Indian Rupee depreciated last week against the American currency and even tested the stiff resistance mark of 67.0000. Although positive sentiments were seen in domestic equity markets yet no such appreciation was seen in Indian currency. Two day win streak of Rupee lost its shine on Friday on back of poor IIP data which plunged to 0.1% in March on back of poor performance in mining and manufacturing sectors. While Retail Inflation (CPI) hiked to 5.39% in April on high food prices. Another notable fact is that dollar index hits two week high. In coming week, key economic indicator is WPI on Monday.
KEY RATES As on 13/05/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
66.7609
REPO RATE
6.50%
0.20%
EURINR
76.3350
76.0050
-0.43%
REVERSE REPO
6.00%
GBPINR
96.8500
96.5150
-0.34%
CRR
4%
JPYINR
62.3975
61.4700
-1.48%
INFLATION
-0.85%
USDINR
USDINR last week traded on higher side taking support at lower levels but could not surpass the strong resistance of 67.0000. In the coming week, if it strongly closes above 67.1000 then only strength can be seen in the counter whereas 66.6000 is seen as immediate support for the pair below which selling pressure can be seen.
EURINR
EURINR last week witnessed selling pressure from highs and sentiments were largely dampened on the last session which finally made the pair to settle on lower note. 76.0000 mark can be said as the crucial mark as sustenance below it can result in further sell offs towards the trend line as shown in daily charts while 76.4000 is seen as strong resistance for the coming week.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
66.6000
66.2000
65.9000
67.1000
67.4000
67.7000
EURINR
75.6000
75.2000
74.7000
76.3000
76.7000
77.1000
GBPINR
96.2000
95.8000
95.4000
96.9000
97.3000
97.7000
JPYINR
61.7000
62.0000
62.4000
61.1000
60.8000
60.4000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES Bank of England Holds Rate at Record Low and Strengthens Brexit Warning. German GDP up 0.7% in the 1st quarter of 2016. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 294,000, an increase of 20,000 from the DATE
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
previous week. 16-MAY-16
12 NOON
INDIA
WPI
-
-0.85%
17-MAY-16
6:00 PM
US
Building Permits
-
1.09m
US
CPI m/m
-
0.1%
US
Philly Manufacturing Index
-
-1.6
6:00 17-MAY-16 PM 6:00 19-MAY-16 AM
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