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R EE E K L Y P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals, 30 NOV – 04 DEC 2015
Energy…
MAJOR EVENTS According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's weekly flows report, investors yanked $1 billion from precious metals funds in the week to Nov. 25, the chunkiest outflow in 17 weeks. Data this week were based on four days of fund flows as opposed to the normal five due to Thanksgiving holiday, the bank said. Precious metal funds typically focus investments in companies that mine, explore or deal in gold and other metals such as silver and platinum, the prices of which have been under the cosh recently. Gold is currently trading at $1,072 an ounce, near its lowest level since February 2010. Platinum, meanwhile, is close to a seven-year trough at $852 an ounce. Investment-grade bond funds saw outflows of $2.6 billion, the heftiest in eight weeks, while investors piled into money market funds, as shown by $12 billion of inflows. Emerging markets continued to be unloved as well. More money has fled emerging markets equity funds than has entered for the past four weeks, while bond funds have seen outflows in 17 of the past 18 weeks, the data showed. Equities in general had net inflows, although there was divergence between exchange traded funds, which had inflows of $7.3 billion, and actively-managed mutual funds, which suffered $6.8 billion of outflows. Crude oil futures fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar index hit a fresh eight-month high, adding more pressure to an already oversupplied, bearish market. Strength in the greenback, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, joined with negative sentiment that kicked off earlier in the day due to disappointing Chinese economic data. "There is dollar strength and a sell off across all commodities,". Brent crude fell by 30 cents to $45.16 per barrel by 1520 GMT, after settling down 71 cents at $45.46 in the previous session. It traded as low as $44.80 earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, the U.S. crude benchmark, fell by 95 cents to $42.09 per barrel. Trading in U.S. futures was muted due to holidays in the country. Both crude contracts were on track for small weekly gains, but were down by roughly 9 percent since the start of November. On Friday, officials with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) questioned an upbeat forecast from its researchers, with some skeptical there will be a quick easing of the supply glut in 2016. Chinese shares slumped 5 percent, hit by regulatory worries and declining industrial sector profits. The future price of copper and the growth of companies that produce it could hinge on a single precious resource: water. Mining the important industrial metal requires huge volumes of water to control dust and separate copper from the earth. But a seven-year drought enveloping Chile, the world’s largest producer, is forcing big mining companies to curb output and pitting them against small communities like this one high in the Andes. Water-related production problems are one reason some analysts say copper prices aren’t likely to lose much more ground after falling nearly 20% so far this year. Over the long term, they say, the price of copper could move higher as global production fails to keep pace with rising demand. U.K. has said water shortages could curb as much as 18,000 tons in annual production starting this year at its Los Bronces mine. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is scrambling to secure water supplies for its Morenci copper mine in Arizona—a state that accounts for a third of the And here in Caimanes, a decadelong legal fight over water has unfolded between local farmers and Chilean mining company Antofagasta PLC. The farmers say an Antofagasta tailings dam, used to create a reservoir for mine waste, has created a water shortage. Antofagasta says the drought is to blame. “We will have to stop operating if the tailings dam can’t operate,”
As gold, platinum prices fall, investors flee precious metal funds.
Oil prices slide on strong dollar and supply excess.
Water Troubles in Tiny Chilean Town Threaten Global Copper Supply.
ECONOMIC CALENDER DATE & TIME Nov 30 8:15pm
DESCRIPTION
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
Chicago PMI
56.2
8:30pm
Pending Home Sales m/m
-2.3%
Dec 01 8:15pm
Final Manufacturing PMI
52.6
8:30pm
ISM Manufacturing PMI
50.1
Construction Spending m/m
0.6%
8:30pm
ISM Manufacturing Prices
39.0
All Day
Total Vehicle Sales
18.2M
11:15pm
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Dec 02 6:30am
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
6:40pm
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
6:45pm
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
7:00pm
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
8:30pm
7:00pm
182K
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
1.6%
7:00pm
Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q
1.4%
9:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories
1.0M
10:55pm
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Dec 03 12:30am
Beige Book
2:10am
FOMC Member Williams Speaks
6:00pm
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
-1.3%
Unemployment Claims
260K
8:15pm
Final Services PMI
56.5
8:30pm
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
8:30pm
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
59.1
8:30pm
Factory Orders m/m
-1.0%
9:00pm
Natural Gas Storage
9B
11:40pm
FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
Dec 04 All Day
OPEC Meetings
7:00pm
7:00pm
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.4%
Non-Farm Employment Change
271K
7:00pm
Trade Balance
-40.8B
7:00pm
Unemployment Rate
5.0%
7:00pm
GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX GOLD showed sideways movement and consolidated in between of 23.6% retracement level and its recent lows i.e. 25170. Now, if it is able to sustain below 25100 then next major support level is seen around 24650. On higher side if it maintains above 25650 then only correction seen in it towards the resistance level of 26100.
PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 25100 for the target of 24650, with stop loss of 25700.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
25170
24925
24650
25535
25810
26090
SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX SILVER last week showed sideways to bullish movement and correct upto its important resistance level i.e. 34500 but not able to maintain above it. Now, on lower side if it sustain below 33150 then next support level is seen in the range of 32000-31500. On higher side if some correction happens then 34600 will act as important resistance level.
STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 33150 for the targets of 32000-31500, with stop loss of 34700.
PIVOT TABLE S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
33150
32000
31000
34325
34910
35600
CRUDEOIL TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Crude oil showed sideways movement and consolidated around its near term lows and showed some correction on higher side but not able to closed above its important resistance level of 2910. Now, if it sustain below 2750 then next important support level is seen around 2600. On the other hand maintaing above 2910, again pull it towards the resistance level of 3100.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 2750 for the target of 2600, with stop loss of 2910.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
2750
2650
2550
2900
3000
3105
COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper last week showed correction on higher side and retrace upto 23.6% retracement level i.e. 311.10 and closed near to psychological support level i.e. 300. Now, if it sustain below 300 on lower side then next important support level is seen around 280. On the other hand if some correction happens then next resistance level will seen around 315.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 299, with stop loss of 318 for the target of 280.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
293.50
284
275
311.05
318.50
326.10
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