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R EE E K L Y P O R T
28 MARCH – 31 MARCH 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee becomes one of the best performing Asian currencies in FY16. Dollar on track for 1% weekly gain, sterling down 2.4%. Japan February core CPI unchanged from previous year. Fed rate hike talk hurts Asia FX; ringgit hits 7-month peak.
CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
66.6000
66.6675
Indian Rupee faced resistance at higher levels as it tested more than two months high in last week and hence showed sideways movement in this week with less number of trading sessions due to holidays. Although Indian Equities traded on firm note and foreign capital inflows were there in domestic markets, yet Rupee cannot gain much on back of demand from Banks and importers of American currency. The two day losses of Rupee were snapped on Wednesday when it recovered by 7 paise. Dollar traded higher against major currencies drawing support from Fed officials’ comments over Brussels terror attacks.
KEY RATES As on 23/03/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
66.8640
REPO RATE
6.75%
0.10
EURINR
75.0850
74.6600
-0.56
REVERSE REPO
5.75%
GBPINR
96.2175
94.6200
-1.66
CRR
4%
JPYINR
59.7325
59.1650
-0.95
INFLATION
-0.91%
USDINR
USDINR last week traded in sideways manner for the short trading week due to holidays and finally ended on a flat note. On daily charts, it tested the trend line acting as support but did not close below it. Fresh selling can be seen if it sustains below the support of 66.4000 while 67.1000 is seen as near term resistance for the week.
EURINR
EURINR last week moved in the same consolidation range as per previous week and closed this week also around it but on negative note. On daily charts, if it sustains below 74.5000 then it may drag towards the trend line i.e. around 74.0000. On higher side, 75.2000 is seen as immediate resistance for the week.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
66.3000
65.9000
65.5000
67.1000
67.6000
68.1000
EURINR
74.2000
73.7000
73.1000
75.1000
75.7000
76.4000
GBPINR
94.1000
93.4000
92.7000
95.1000
95.9000
96.7000
JPYINR
58.4000
57.8000
57.2000
60.0000
60.5000
61.1000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment improved by 3.3 pts. German Manufacturing Grew at Slowest Pace in 16 months in March. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 265,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week. DATE
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
29-MARCH-16
7:30 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence
-
92.2
30-MARCH-16
6:00 PM
US
ADP Non Farm Employment Change
-
214k
US
Unemployment Claims
-
265k
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.9%
6:00 31-MARCH-16 PM 6:00 01-APRIL-16 PM
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