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R EE E K L Y P O R T
14 MARCH – 18 MARCH 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS China Inflation Picks Up as Food Prices Jump, Demand Recovers. China's yuan hits 2016 high on firm midpoint, global dollar weakness. Ringgit, rupiah retreat; yuan, won edge higher. German Wholesale prices in Feb 2016: –1.9% on Feb 2015.
CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
67.3675
67.2675
Indian Rupee extended the rally of the previous week though in small figures but able to sustain on higher side. It dipped in the first half of the week but on Thursday it gained for the second consecutive session against the greenback on sustained selling of dollars by banks & exporters in regard with foreign capital inflows. Indian rupee gained 0.42% in two days. Another overseas event which took place was that ECB cut its main rate to 0 from 0.5% and suggested it is done with cutting interest rates for now. In coming week, some key events are WPI and CPI on Monday on domestic front while FOMC meet on global front.
KEY RATES As on 11/03/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
67.0868
REPO RATE
6.75%
-0.14
EURINR
74.0325
74.6050
0.77
REVERSE REPO
5.75%
GBPINR
95.2750
96.2000
0.97
CRR
4%
JPYINR
59.2325
59.1425
-0.15
INFLATION
-0.90%
USDINR
USDINR last week also continued the weak trend of previous week and closed on a flat to negative note. The pair appeared strong in initial part of the week but soon it dragged down. On higher side, 67.8000 is seen as resistance for the week while below 67.0000 it may slip towards 66.7000 i.e. near to the trend line acting as strong support.
EURINR
EURINR last week showed choppy movements due to important event of ECB announcement in which it cut rates to zero from 0.5% and also commented that it has done with rate cutting now which made the counter to open higher on Friday. On higher side, 75.5000 is seen as important resistance while if it sustains below 74.0000 then it may fall towards next support of 73.4000.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
66.8000
66.4000
66.0000
67.8000
68.1000
68.5000
EURINR
74.1000
73.4000
72.7000
75.5000
76.0000
76.8000
GBPINR
95.4000
94.7000
94.0000
96.7000
97.3000
98.2000
JPYINR
58.8000
58.2000
57.5000
59.6000
60.2000
60.8000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES Euro stands tall after ECB signals end to rate cuts, yen gains. United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations: 1.8% vs previous 2%. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 259,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week. DATE
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
15-MARCH-16
6:00 PM
US
Core Retail Sales m/m
-0.2%
0.1%
16-MARCH-16
6:00 PM
US
Building Permits
1.20m
1.20m
US
FOMC Statement
-
-
US
Unemployment Claims
267k
259k
11:30 16-MARCH-16 PM 6:00 17-MARCH-16 PM
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