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R EE E K L Y P O R T
08 MARCH – 11 MARCH 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee dominance continues, ends at 7-week high of 67.34. Asia FX sentiment mostly better; fewer yuan bears, more rupiah bulls. Rupiah at 9-month high, Sing dollar hits 4-month peak. China’s PMI Deteriorated in February as Old Growth Drivers Slow.
CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
69.0350
67.3675
Indian Rupee showed stupendous rally against the greenback for six consecutive sessions and reached towards 2 month highs reversing sharply after hitting 30 month low in the previous week. Continuous selling of dollars by Banks and exporters and aggressive inflows of FII into the equity markets too aided the sentiments as equities surged 6% on back of announcements in Union Budget showing commitment to fiscal deficit target which attracted more foreign investment and RBI relaxing basel 3 guidelines also boosted the PSU Banks sentiments. In coming week, Trade balance and IIP are the key events on Friday.
KEY RATES As on 04/03/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
67.2713
REPO RATE
6.75%
-2.41
EURINR
76.0300
74.0325
-2.62
REVERSE REPO
5.75%
GBPINR
96.3100
95.2750
-1.07
CRR
4%
JPYINR
61.1400
59.2325
-3.11
INFLATION
-0.90%
USDINR
USDINR last week strongly rebounded from 30 month lows so made in the previous week and closed down with weekly loss of approx 2.4%. On weekly charts, it had reversed from the upper band of channel pattern so shown in the chart above and closed near 67.0000.Now, major support is seen near lower band i.e. 66.5000 while 67.8000-68.1000may act as resistance range.
EURINR
EURINR last week sharply dropped in the first two sessions while consolidated in the later part of the week. On daily charts, it closed around such crucial levels that any breakdown below 73.4000 can drag it towards deeper supports such as 72.9000 while holding above 74.1000 can pull the counter towards the next resistance of 74.9000.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
67.0000
66.6000
66.0000
67.8000
68.2000
68.8000
EURINR
73.4000
72.7000
71.8000
74.8000
75.6000
76.5000
GBPINR
94.5000
93.8000
93.1000
95.9000
96.8000
97.7000
JPYINR
58.8000
58.1000
57.5000
59.8000
60.5000
61.2000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES UK Manufacturing PMI at 34-month low in February. Payrolls in U.S. Surge While Wages Drop in Mixed Jobs Report. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 278,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week.
DATE
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
10-MARCH-16
7:00 PM
US
Unemployment Claims
272k
278k
11-MARCH-16
7:00 PM
US
Import Prices m/m
-0.7%
-1.1%
INDIA
Trade Balance
-
-7.64b
INDIA
IIP(YoY)
-
-1.3%
12:00 11-MARCH-16 NOON 12:00 11-MARCH-16 NOON
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