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R EE E K L Y P O R T
01 FEB– 05 FEB 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee recovers on last day, losing three day losing momentum. Yen sinks, Nikkei soars and JGB yields hit record lows after BOJ eases. Fed stance dampens Asia FX, but ringgit at 8-week high. US GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.7%.
CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
67.6325
68.1025
Indian Rupee lost its momentum in first three sessions of the week but strong recovery of approx 0.67% (its steepest gain in about 4 months) on the last day against the greenback helped rupee to cover losses. Strong movement in Indian equities on Friday after Bank of Japan entered into negative interest rate policy also aided the sentiments and fresh selling of dollar by banks and exporters also helped in its recovery. Most Asian currencies traded strong. In the coming week, key event to keep in focus is RBI Monetary Policy on February 2 which can affect the volatility in Rupee.
KEY RATES As on 29/01/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
67.8763
REPO RATE
6.75%
0.69
EURINR
73.3075
74.2900
1.34
REVERSE REPO
5.75%
GBPINR
96.6000
97.5000
0.93
CRR
4%
JPYINR
57.1575
56.3250
-1.45
INFLATION
-0.73%
USDINR
USDINR last week showed three day consecutive rally and reached new highs as compared to previous week but last day sell offs snapped the momentum and finally closed the week on positive note. Now, 68.6000 is seen as immediate resistance while sustaining below 68.0000 can drag it towards the support range of 67.8000-67.4000.
EURINR
EURINR last week showed strong pull back from the support levels and reached towards the trend line acting as resistance and closed the week with gain of around 1.30%. Major resistance now seen is 75.0000 while reversals from the trend line shown in chart above can again drag the counter towards 73.9000-73.4000.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
67.7000
67.3000
66.9000
68.6000
69.0000
69.4000
EURINR
73.8000
73.2000
72.7000
75.2000
75.7000
76.1000
GBPINR
96.9000
96.2000
95.7000
98.4000
99.0000
99.5000
JPYINR
55.7000
55.1000
54.5000
56.8000
57.3000
58.0000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged; Closely Watching World Developments. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Increased in Jan. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 278,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week. DATE
TIME
01-FEB-2016
8:30 PM
03-FEB-2016
6:45 PM
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
-
48.2
US
ADP Non Farm Employment Change
-
257k
US
Trade Balance
-
-42.4B
US
Unemployment Rate
-
5.0%
7:00 05-FEB-2016 PM 7:00 05-FEB-2016 PM
DISCLAIMER
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