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R EE E K L Y P O R T
30 MAY – 03 JUNE 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee tested 2-1/2 month low in last week; thereafter recovered smartly. French private sector output growth quickens to sevenmonth high. Eurozone flash PMI edges down to 16-month low. Japan National CPI: World’s Third Largest Economy Sinks Deeper into Deflation. CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
67.5625
67.3675
Indian Rupee depreciated against the greenback in the initial part of week where it hit 2-1/2 month low but soon recovered from lower levels and showed continuous three day winning streak and finally closed in positive zone as compared to previous week. The renewed strength of dollar in the midst of an imminent Fed rate hike concerns is keeping emerging market currencies volatile, though rupee has shown more resilience as compared to its peers reflecting the fundamental conditions. Further gains will depend on foreign fund flows into equity markets and dollar movements.
KEY RATES As on 27/05/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
67.0613
REPO RATE
6.50%
-0.28%
EURINR
75.8300
75.3650
-0.61%
REVERSE REPO
6.00%
GBPINR
98.4500
98.7400
0.29%
CRR
4%
JPYINR
61.2400
61.4275
0.30%
INFLATION
0.34%
USDINR
USDINR last week continued the rally in the first half of the week and tested the two month highs but dropped from such highs and finally settled the week in red. Now, if it holds below 67.2000 then 67.0000 will act as its key support while sustaining above the trend line i.e. above 67.5000 can act as strength for the counter.
EURINR
EURINR last week broke the trend line acting as support as seen on daily charts and closed the week in red territory. It is near to the important support of 75.2500 holding below which can drag it towards 74.8000 while 75.8000 is seen as immediate resistance for the week holding above which can bring it in corrective zone.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
67.1000
66.8000
66.5000
67.8000
68.2000
68.6000
EURINR
75.0000
74.5000
74.1000
75.8000
76.3000
76.8000
GBPINR
98.1000
97.5000
97.0000
99.0000
99.6000
100.1000
JPYINR
61.1000
60.6000
60.0000
61.9000
62.5000
63.0000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES U.S. durable goods surge on transportation; business spending weak. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Slight Declined. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 268,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week. DATE
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
31-MAY-16
7:30 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence
-
94.2
01-JUNE-16
7:30 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
-
50.8
US
Unemployment Claims
-
268k
US
Unemployment Rate
-
5.0%
6:00 02-JUNE-16 PM 6:00 03-JUNE-16 AM
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