MILINT Ecology of Peace SSDefcon 2: Scarcity Conflict

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict

Consequences of Civilized Patriarchy’s Control of Reproduction and Consumption ..

SS-DEFCON 2: SCARCITY-CONFLICT ―The seventh principle of humanitarian action in armed conflict says: ―Contextualization: Effective humanitarian action should encompass a comprehensive view of overall needs and of the impact of interventions. Encouraging respect for human rights and addressing the underlying causes of conflicts are essential elements.‖ - Dec 1994: Dept of the Army, Field Manual 100-23, Peace Operations.

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict

TABLE OF CONTENTS: SS-DEFCON 2: Scarcity-Conflict

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Limits to Growth

03-04

Difference between Sustainable Peaceful Procreation, Consumption and Production and Unsustainable ScarcityConflict Procreation, Consumption and Production

04-08

Scarcity-Conflict: Military Doctrine

08-26

Walking the National Security - Scarcity & Conflict - Talk to Support the Troops: Procreate and Consume below carrying capacity, to enable the avoidance of resource war conflict

26-29

Scarcity and Conflict: Academic Research

29-31

Media Censorship: Population-Environment Connection

32-44

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict

Limits to Growth [1]

In 1972, the now-classic book Limits to Growth1 explored the consequences

for Earth‘s ecosystems of exponential growth in population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion.

[2]

It concluded that if the present growth trends continued unchanged, the

limits to growth on this planet would be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result would be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

[3]

It suggested that it would be possible to alter these growth trends and to

establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future, if a socio-political system was designed to effect a state of global equilibrium.

[4]

If the world's people decided to strive for this second outcome rather than the

first, the sooner they began working to attain it, the greater would be their chances of success.

[5]

All five elements basic to the study of Limits to Growth — population, food

production, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources — have been increasing. The amount of their increases each year has followed a pattern that mathematicians call exponential growth.

Flat Earth Political-Corporate Elite & their Cannon Fodder: ―Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the ultra secretive and original one-percenter Rothschild banking family, is credited with telling investors the trick to making money is to ―buy when there‘s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.‖ - Kenneth Rapoza, 'By When There's Blood in the Streets': how Contrarians Get It Right2; Forbes ―Military men are just dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns in foreign policy.‖ - Henry Kissinger

[6]

Since the publication of Limits to Growth, thousands upon thousands of

scientific studies have been conducted and published warning citizens and politicians of the devastating consequences of humanity growing footprint.

Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and william Behrens II, The Limits to Growth (New York: Universe Books, 1972) 2 http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/05/25/buy-when-theres-blood-in-the-streets-how-contrarians-get-it-right/ 1

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [7]

Current evidence for the breach or impending breach of Planetary Boundary

Tipping Points3, includes: (i) Loss of Biodiversity and Species Extinctions4; (ii) Climate Change5; (iii) Nitrogen Cycle6; (iv) Ocean Acidification7; (v) Changes in Land Use8; (vi) Global Freshwater Use9; (vii) State Shift in the Earth‘s Biosphere10; (viii) Peak Non-Renewable Natural Resources: Scarcity11; and (ix) Socialized Corporate Externality Costs: Trillion Dollar Thefts from Global Natural Capital Commons12, amounting to an ecological overshoot of between 700 to 400,000 percent13, with devastating current and impending ‗overshoot-scarcity-conflict‘ death spiral consequences14.

[8]

It is common scientific knowledge that the overshoot impacts on the

environment are a consequence of Population, Affluence and Technology (I=PAT).

[9]

Zero Preventative Legislation: Nevertheless politicians are not even

debating or considering legislation to temporarily restrict citizen‘s consumption and procreation practices to lower levels to reduce these devastating impact consequences on the ecological foundation of every nation‘s natural capital, which would indicate a preventative legislative focus to avoid overshoot-scarcity-conflict consequences.

Difference between Sustainable Peaceful Procreation, Consumption and Production and Unsustainable Scarcity-Conflict Procreation, Consumption and Production [10]

In Peace seekers have no plan for enduring peace15, Dr. Jack Alpert

argues that Peaceniks failure to move society from conflict to peace, their establishment of never ending or honoured ―peace accords, moral codes, acts of economic justice, and environmental laws, are like traffic signals‖ which ―cause people to relinquish freedoms‖ but, ―do not stop (change) the behaviors that increase scarcity, conflict, and environmental destruction‖16: ―result from a faulty http://tygae.weebly.com/tipping-points.html http://tygae.weebly.com/biodiversity-loss.html 5 http://tygae.weebly.com/climate-change.html 6 http://tygae.weebly.com/nitrogen-cycle.html 7 http://tygae.weebly.com/ocean-acidification.html 8 http://tygae.weebly.com/land-use.html 9 http://tygae.weebly.com/freshwater-use.html 10 http://tygae.weebly.com/biosphere-state-shift.html 11 http://tygae.weebly.com/peak-nnr-scarcity.html 12 http://tygae.weebly.com/corp-externalities.html 13 http://tygae.weebly.com/ecological-overshoot.html 14 http://sqswans.weebly.com/rapid-population-decline.html 15 www.skil.org/position_papers_folder/Peaceniks_Wake_up.html 16 Alpert, Jack (04/01/04): Footprint vs. Freedom: www.skil.org/position_papers_folder/Footprint_vs_freedom.html 3 4

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict perception of what increases or decreases conflict. Where, peace seekers have acted as if conflict is caused by bad leadership maybe they should have acted as if trends in conflict are driven by trends in scarcity. Maybe they would have been more successful if they acted as if trends in scarcity are driven by the collective behaviors of 6 billion people. That while each individual acts benignly to achieve personal objectives the unintentional result is an increase in scarcity and conflict.‖ [11]

Another reason for ignoring the above view of human conflict – according to

Dr. Alpert -- is that peace seekers, even when successful at restraining the police, military or mediating hostilities, do not change our course toward conflict. They only delay it. In the process, peace seekers consume the very energy required to change the things that would make societies head toward peace.

[12]

In Human Predicament: Better Common Sense Required: The Future

of Social Conflict17, Dr. Jack Alpert challenges us to answer two questions Corporate Oligarchs who profit from Unsustainable procreation (demand for more consumers), production and consumption, including its scarcity-conflict resource war consequences; do not want citizens, politicians, police, judges, prosecutors and those tasked with national security to ask themselves.

[13]

Let‘s consider that Peace and conflict are defined not as descriptions of

behaviour between nations, but as trends describing social conditions. Put differently: Conflict is not defined as the violence between neighbours and nations, but as the unwanted intrusion of one person‘s existence and consumption behaviour upon another person.

[14]

There are two kinds of conflict: [14.1]

Direct: he took my car, he enslaved me, he beat me, he raped me, he

killed me; and Indirect. Indirect intrusions are the by-product of other people's behaviour.

[14.2]

Indirect: ‗All the trees on our island were consumed by our grandparents,‘

is an indirect intrusion of a past generation on a present one. ‗The rich people raised the price of gasoline and we can't afford it,‘ and ‗The government is offering people welfare to breed more children‘ are current economic and demographic intrusions by one present group on another present group. Free Trade enabling overexploitation, overproduction and overconsumption of a nation natural capital resources is an economic intrusion by one set of oligarchs upon another set of citizens whose lives depend on such natural capital.

17

youtu.be/sK8WxeGxkPk

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [15]

System conflict is the sum of intrusions experienced by each constituent,

summed over all the constituents. A measure of the existing global conflict is the sum of six billion sets of direct and indirect intrusions. A measure of the UK‘s conflict is the sum of 62 million sets of direct and indirect intrusions.

[16]

Using this definition of conflict, any citizen, politician, policeman, judge or

legislator sincerely concerned about finding out whether and how the United Kingdom‘s socio-economic and political system is moving towards peace or towards conflict; can do so, by determining the answers to the following questions: A.

Procreation Footprint: How many children per family leads to peace; or conversely how many children per family, contributes to greater resource scarcity, and exponential increase in conflict, i.e. an individuals‘ ‗breeding war combatant‘ status? [According to the research of Dr. Jack Alpert 18, the global answer – currently based on current population numbers -- is one child per family leads to peace; two or more children leads to conflict]

B.

Production/Carbon Footprint: How much exploitation and production of non-renewable and renewable natural resources relative to the nation‘s Natural Capital carrying capacity footprint leads to peace; or conversely how much of a nation‘s non-renewable and renewable natural resources can or should a corporation exploit into production of consumer goods, before such exploitation and production contributes to greater resource scarcity and exponential increase in conflict; i.e. a corporations ‗production combatant‘ status? [All utilization of non-renewable natural resources— fossil fuels, metals, and minerals—at any level, contributes to scarcityconflict. Peaceful utilization of Aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric natural habitats requires that they be degraded only at levels less than or equal to the levels at which they are regenerated by Nature. Exploiting renewable resources above their capacity to regenerate is not sustainable and does not contribute to peaceful resource relations; i.e. contribute to scarcity-conflict19. See Carbon Footprint20]

C.

Consumption/Carbon Footprint: How much consumption of nonrenewable and renewable natural resources relative to the nation‘s

http://sqswans.weebly.com/human-predicament.html ―Sustainable natural resource utilization behavior involves the utilization of renewable natural resources—water, cropland, pastureland, forests, and wildlife—exclusively. Renewable natural resource reserves can be depleted only at levels less than or equal to the levels at which they are replenished by Nature. The utilization of nonrenewable natural resources—fossil fuels, metals, and minerals—at any level, is not sustainable. Aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric natural habitats can be degraded only at levels less than or equal to the levels at which they are regenerated by Nature. All other natural resource utilization behavior and all other natural habitat degradation are unsustainable—period.‖ (Sustainability Defined, by Chris Clugston, author: Scarcity) 20 http://www.carbonfootprint.com 18 19

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict Natural Capital carrying capacity footprint leads to peace; or conversely how much consumption of non-renewable and renewable natural resources relative to the nation‘s Natural Capital carrying capacity footprint, contributes to greater resource scarcity, and exponential increase in conflict,

i.e.

an

individuals

‗consumption

combatant

status‘?

All

consumption of nonrenewable natural resources—fossil fuels, metals, and minerals—at

any

level,

contributes

to

scarcity-conflict.

Peaceful

consumption of Aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric natural habitats requires that they be degraded only at levels less than or equal to the levels at which they are regenerated by Nature. Exploiting renewable resources above their capacity to regenerate is not sustainable and does not contribute to peaceful resource relations; i.e. contribute to scarcityconflict21.

[See

Nation

Footprint22;

Finance

Footprint23,

Business

Footprint24; Personal Footprint25] [17]

In the absence of the worlds political, economic and corporate leaders

confronting and acknowledging the difference between sustainable peaceful consumption and procreation and unsustainable scarcity-conflict aggravating consumption and procreation; and implementing legislation and Jurisprudence in accordance thereto; Dr. Alpert provides proof how the global AnthroCorpocentric Jurisprudence Suicide Freight Train has as much chance of muddling through the coming ‗Falling Man Syndrome‘ Crisis of Conflict, as an individual sitting in an unbelted car crash. (Non-Linearity and Social Conflict26) [18] Dr. Alpert compares humanity‘s belief that ―in 200 years, our Right to Breed and consume has resulted in the exponential consumption of over half of the Earth's resources, and nothing bad has happened yet‖; to a man who has fallen out of a 150 story building, passing the window of the 60 th story, calling out to a friend ―‗I‘ve fallen 90 stories in the past 5 seconds and nothing bad has happened yet‖.

Scarcity – Conflict Death Spiral [19] Dr. Jack Alpert‘s short documentary series: Rapid Population Decline or Civilization Collapse27: (i) The – Scarcity Conflict death spiral28, (ii) The system trips the death spiral29, (iii) Human behaviour trips the death spiral30, he eloquently Ibid: Sustainability Defined, by Chris Clugston, author: Scarcity http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_nations/ 23 http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_finance/ 24 http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_business/ 25 http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/personal_footprint/ and http://www.myfootprint.org/ 26 youtu.be/W5capqGod9A 27 http://skil.org/Qxtras_folder-2/rapidpopdeclineorbust.html 28 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00S6kVx1EHI 29 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDFH6e1rCRE 30 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFDkfSesXx4 21 22

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict explains how overpopulation, overconsumption and socio-economic inequality factor into the scarcity-conflict death spiral. In How much population decline saves civilization31 he explains why humanity must rapidly reduce world population to below 100 million; concluding with his plan for Rapid Population Decline32, due to the Scarcity-Conflict death spiral.

SCARCITY & CONFLICT: MILITARY DOCTRINE [20] Scarcity as Root Cause of Conflict: The Academic and Military doctrine documentation detailing the argument, theory and practice that Scarcity is considered a Root Cause of Conflict is significant. In fact it is one of the primary foundations for the arguments about the national security dangers of climate change: namely that climate change will result in oil, food, and water shortages which will relate to a threat-multiplier effect on all other scarcity related conflict.

31 32

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXEWJjmt3ok http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TOvZzdp8hM

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [21]

Government / Military Reports:

[21.1] Bundeswehr (Sep 2010): Peak Oil: Security Policy Implications of Scarce Resources33; Bundeswehr.

[21.2] Bush, GW Snr (1986/02): Public Report of the Vice-President’s Task Force on Combatting Terrorism34, United States Government [21.3] Canadian Security Intelligence Service: Gizewski, Peter (Spring 1997): Environmental Scarcity and Conflict35, by Peter Gizewski, Project on Environment Population and Security, Peace and Conflict Studies Program, University of Toronto; Canadian Security Intelligence Service: Archived: Commentary No. 71.

[21.4] White House: National Security Council (1974/04/24): National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests36, Cover Letter by Henry Kissinger.

[21.5] White House: National Security Council (1974/12/10): National Security Study Memorandum (NSSM 200): Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests37, Washington, DC, 227 pp. (The Kissinger Report) [21.6] White House: National Security Council (1975/11/26): National Security Decision Memorandum 314: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests38, Washington, DC. 4 pp.; made public policy by Pres. Gerald Ford.

[21.7] White House: Nixon, R. (1969/07/18): Special Message to the Congress on Problems of Population Growth39, Public Papers of the Presidents, No. 271, p. 521, Office of the Federal Register, National Archives, Washington, DC, 1971 [21.8] White House: Nixon, R (1970/03/16): Remarks of President Nixon on Signing Bill Establishing the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future40, White House [21.9] White House: Nixon, R. (1972/05/05): Statement About the Report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future41, Public Papers for the Presidents, No. 142, p. 576, Office of Federal Register, National Archives, Washington, DC, 1974.

English: http://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf http://www.population-security.org/bush_report_on_terrorism/bush_report_on_terrorism_3.htm 35 http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/cmmntr/cm71-eng.asp 36 issuu.com/js-ror/docs/740424_wh-nssm200 37 issuu.com/js-ror/docs/740424_wh-nssm200 38 www.population-security.org/12-CH4.html 39 http://www.population-security.org/10-CH2.html 40 http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=2911 41 http://www.population-security.org/10-CH2.html 33 34

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [21.10] White House: Rockefeller Commission Report (1972/03/27): Population and the American Future: The Report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future42 (PDF43); a Signet Special Edition, W5219, The New American Library, Inc., 1301 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, March, 1972.

[21.11] United Nations: (1974/08): World Population Plan of Action44 (PDF45); Adopted by consensus of the 137 countries represented at the UN World Population Conference at Bucharest, August 1974 [21.12] United States Army: Department of the Army (December 1994): Field Manual 100-23, Peace Operations46. Washington, DC: Headquarters, Department of the Army [21.13]

United States Army (2001): US Army Posture Statement - FY 200247.

[21.14] United States Army: Murphy, R (2006/10/24): US Army Strategy of the Environment48, Office of the Dep. Asst. Sec. of the Army, Environment, Safety & Occup. Health: Assistant for Sustainability.

[21.15] United States Army & TRADOC (2012): US Army Unified Quest 2012 Fact Sheet49, Unified Quest 2012 is the Army Chief of Staff's annual Title 10 Future Study Plan (FSP).

[21.16] United States Army Command and General Staff College: David, MAJ William E (April 1996): Environmental Scarcity as a Cause of Violent Conflict50, USA Military Intelligence, School of Advanced Military Studies; United States Army Command and General Staff College.

[21.17] United States Army War College: Butts, Kent (25 April 1994): Environmental Security: A DOD Partnership for Peace51; US Army War College.

[21.18] United States Army War College: Bush, Col BX (13 Mar 1997): Promoting Environmental Security during Contingency Operations52; US Army War College.

[21.19] United States Army War College: Peters, R (1996): The Culture of Future Conflict53, US Army War College: Parameters: Winter 1995-96, pp. 18-27.

[21.20] United States Army War College: Ubbelohde, LTC Kurt F. (10 April 2000): Freshwater Scarcity in the Nile River Basin54, US Army War College. www.population-security.org/rockefeller/001_population_growth_and_the_american_future.htm issuu.com/js-ror/docs/720327_rock-pop 44 www.population-security.org/27-APP1.html 45 issuu.com/js-ror/docs/74_un-pop-actionplan 46 http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/fm100-23(94).pdf 47 http://www.army.mil/aps/01/default.htm 48 www.cecer.army.mil/techreports/ERDC-CERL_TR-07-9/Session%20I/RichardMurphy.pdf 49 www.army.mil/article/68379/Unified_Quest_2012___Fact_Sheet/ 50 http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA314878 51 Butts, Kent Hughes (25 April 1994): Environmental Security: A DoD Partnership for Peace http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB339.pdf 52 http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA326869 53 http://www.carlisle.army.mil/USAWC/parameters/Articles/1995/peters.htm 42 43

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [21.21] United States Department of Defence: Department of Defense (Jan 2012): Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st Century Defense 55 [21.22] United States Joint Forces Command (15 March 2010): Command releases report examining the future, FJCOM. [21.23] United States Joint Forces Command (2010/02/18): The Joint Operating Environment - 201056 (The JOE – 2010).

[21.24] U.S. Forest Service (Dec 2012): Report Predicts a Strain on Natural Resources Due to Rapid Population Growth57.

[21.25] Chiarelli, Peter W General (6 Nov 2008): Prof Al Bernstein Lecture Series: School of Advanced International Studies58, Remarks by General Peter W Chiarelli.

[21.26] Koppel, T (2000): CIA and Pentagon on Overpopulation and Resource Wars59, Nightline.

[21.27] Lt. General Stephen M. Speakes, Dep. Chief of Staff (25 July 2008): Subject: 2008 Army Modernization Strategy60; Department of the Army [21.28] Nathan Freier (November 2008): Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development 61; Strategic Studies Institute; US Army [21.29]

DoD: (Feb 2010): Quadrennial Defense Review62; Department of Defense

[22] Military Doctrine & Academic Theory: Climate Change & National Security: Climate Change acts as a Scarcity and Conflict Threat Multiplier of oil, water and food resource wars and mass migration:

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA378148 http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf 56 "A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions." www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf 57 http://www.fs.fed.us/news/2012/releases/12/report.shtml 58 http://www.army.mil/article/14199/Address_to_Alvin_Bernstein_Lecture_Series___Johns_Hopkins_University/ 59 [1/2] youtu.be/7OJeUAx0y-g [2/2] youtu.be/s22yr-Fvl5Q 60 describes the arrival of a new "era of persistent conflict" due to competition for "depleting natural resources and overseas markets" fuelling "future resource wars over water, food and energy." http://downloads.army.mil/docs/08modplan/Army_Mod_Strat_2008.pdf 61 US Army's Strategic Studies Institute warned that a series of domestic crises could provoke large-scale civil unrest.

The path to "disruptive domestic shock" could include traditional threats such as deployment of WMDs, alongside "catastrophic natural and human disasters" or "pervasive public health emergencies" coinciding with "unforeseen economic collapse." Such crises could lead to "loss of functioning political and legal order" leading to "purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency... "DoD might be forced by circumstances to put its broad resources at the disposal of civil authorities to contain and reverse violent threats to domestic tranquility. Under the most extreme circumstances, this might include use of military force against hostile groups inside the United States. Further, DoD would be, by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance." http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB890.pdf 62 "climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked." http://www.defense.gov/QDR/QDR%20as%20of%2029JAN10%201600.pdf 54 55

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [22.1] Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change (GMACCC) Chairman: Major General Muniruzzaman (04 Apr 2013): Climate Change and Global Security63; America Security Now [22.2] Military Advisory Board (MAB)(April 2007): National Security and Climate Change64, Center for Naval Analysis, CAN. [22.3] Military Advisory Board (MAB)(May 2009): Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security65; Center for Naval Analysis, CAN [22.4] Military Advisory Board (MAB)(July 2010): Powering America’s Economy: Energy Innovation at the Crossroads of National Security Challenges 66, Center for Naval Analysis, CAN. [22.5] Military Advisory Board (MAB) (unknown): Energy, Climate Change, and the Military: Implications for National Security 67; Woodrow Wilson Center for Environmental Security.

[22.6] Military Advisory Board (unknown): National Security and the Threat of Climate Change68, Woodrow Wilson Center for Environmental Security [22.7] Lucka Kajfez-Bogataj (11 Dec 2009): Climate Change as a National and International Security Threat69; Good Planet Org. [22.8] Clark Wesley General, McGinn Dennis Rear Admiral, Boycott Rosy (18 Dec 2009): Climate Change is a Global Security Threat70; Global Observatory [22.9] Climate Patriots (19 Feb 2010): Energy, Climate Change and American National Security: A Military Perspective71; Pew Climate Security.

[22.10] Titley, David, Rear Admiral, USN (19 Nov 2010): Climate Change and National Security72; TEDxPentagon [22.11] McGinn Dennis, Vice Admiral, Navy (26 Jan 2012): Energy, Climate Change and National Security: Challenges and Opportunities for America73; Purdue University [22.12] Congressional Hearing: (06 June 2008): National Security and Climate Change74; Energy Environment TV

http://youtu.be/JEtP0I-wwhM www.cna.org/reports/climate AND http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCfRGN0YIwQ 65 http://www.cna.org/reports/energy 66 http://www.cna.org/reports/economy 67 http://youtu.be/w1FMeVH2AgI 68 http://youtu.be/8m3DReZxePQ 69 http://youtu.be/v9uAIQXZUks 70 http://youtu.be/tz9vRxCMZUw 71 http://youtu.be/kjS9pU0y_JU 72 http://youtu.be/7udNMqRmqV8 73 http://youtu.be/LjA5naFfcgk 74 http://youtu.be/vl3CRssxU7s 63 64

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict Jarvis Lionel, Rear Admiral, Royal Navy (17 Oct 2011): Climate Change and Military Security75; One World TV [22.13]

[22.14] Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, Senior British Royal Navy officer, currently the United Kingdom's Climate and Energy Security Envoy; Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti on link between climate change, health and national security76; OneWorldTV

[22.15] Damian Carrington (30 June 2013): Climate poses grave threat to security says UK envoy: Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti77; The Guardian [22.16] Bryan Bender (09 March 2013): Chief of US Pacific Forces: Admiral Samuel Lockleaer warns that climate change is top threat78; Boston Globe [22.17] Will Rogers (20 March 2012): How are the Combatant Commanders thinking about Climate Change?79; Center for New American Security [22.18] Development, Concepts and Doctrine Center (DCDC) (12 January 2010): Strategic Trends Programme: Global Strategic Trends - Out to 204080; Ministry of Defense [22.19] American Security Project (January 2012): Climate Security Report: Military Basing and Climate Change81; ASP [22.20] American Security Project (2012): Military Perspectives on Climate Change Around the World82; ASP database [22.21] Defense Science Board Task Force (Oct 2011): Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security83; Dept. of Defense [22.22] Joshua Busby (Nov 2007): Climate Change and National Security84; Council on Foreign Relations [22.23] Jamie McIntyre: A Conversation with Richard L. Engel85; Council on Foreign Relations & CNN

http://youtu.be/3neELnBCu5c http://youtu.be/p4Af3AqUBVI 77 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jun/30/climate-change-security-threat-envoy 78 http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-thatclimate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.html and http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2013/03/10/commander-of-u-s-forces-pacific-climate-change-is-top-threat/ 79 http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2012/03/how-are-combatant-commanders-thinking-about-climatechange.html 80 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/33717/GST4_v9_Feb10.pdf 81 http://americansecurityproject.org/reports/2012/military-basing-and-climate-change/ 82 http://americansecurityproject.org/issues/climate-energy-and-security/climate-change/the-climate-change-andglobal-security-defense-index/ 83 http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2011/11/defense-science-panel-climate-a-national-securitythreat/1#.UdRFDjuBm7k and http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/dsb/climate.pdf 84 http://www.cfr.org/climate-change/climate-change-national-security/p14862?cid=rss-councilspecialreportsclimate_change_and_national_se-112607 85 http://youtu.be/uAAT2qQZUfM 75 76

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [22.24] Efi Stenzler, Orr Karassin,Pinhas Alpert, Yeshayahu Bar-Or, Arnon Sofer (3 Feb 2010): Adjusting to Climate Change: A National Security Dimension86; Herzliya Conference [22.25] Senators and Congress members, retired generals and admirals, Chair and Vice Chair of the 9/11 Commission, Cabinet and Cabinet-level officials from the Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush (41), Clinton, and Bush (43) administrations 87 (): The Cost of Inaction on Climate Change Will be Staggering88; Partnership for a Secure America.

[22.26] Nafeez Ahmed (14 June 2013): Pentagon bracing for public dissent over climate and energy shocks89; Guardian

Scarcity and Conflict: Military Doctrine: Selected Excerpts ―There is also a new and different threat to our national security emerging—the destruction of our environment. The defense establishment has a clear stake in this growing threat... one of our key national security objectives must be to reverse the accelerating pace of environmental destruction.‖ - Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA), Senate, June 28, 1990 *** ―According to a growing body of literature, scarcity of freshwater to meet the many needs of Third World countries is http://youtu.be/CE4k0K06WBg Madeleine Albright, Secretary of State 1997-2001 | Richard Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State 2001-05 | Samuel Berger, National Security Advisor 1997-2001 | Sherwood Boehlert, US Congressman (R-NY) 1983-2007 | Carol Browner, Administrator, Environmental Protection Agency 1993-2001 | Michael Castle, US Congressman (RDE) 1993-2011, Governor (R-DE) 1985-92 | GEN Wesley Clark, USA (Ret.), Fmr. Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO | William Cohen, Secretary of Defense 1997-2001, US Senator (R-ME) 1979-97 | Lt Gen Lawrence P. Farrell, Jr., USAF (Ret.), Fmr. Deputy Chief Of Staff for Plans and Programs, HQ USAF | BG Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., P.E., Ph.D., USA (Ret.), Fmr. Dean of the Academic Board, US Military Academy | Wayne Gilchrest, US Congressman (R-MD) 1991-2009 | James Greenwood, US Congressman (R-PA) 1993-2005 | VADM Lee F. Gunn, USN (Ret.), Fmr. Inspector General of the Department of the Navy | Lee Hamilton, US Congressman (D-IN) 1965-99, Co-Chair, PSA Advisory Board | Gary Hart, US Senator (D-CO) 1975-87 | Rita E. Hauser, Chair, International Peace Institute | Carla Hills, US Trade Representative 1989-93 | Thomas Kean, Governor (R-NJ) 1982-90, 9/11 Commission Chair | GEN Paul J. Kern, USA (Ret.), Fmr. Commanding General, US Army Materiel Command | Richard Leone, President, The Century Foundation 1989-2011 | Joseph I. Lieberman, US Senator (I-CT) 1989-2013 | Richard G. Lugar, US Senator (R-IN) 1977-2013 | VADM Dennis V. McGinn, USN (Ret.), Fmr. Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfare Requirements and Programs | Donald McHenry, US Ambassador to the UN 1979-81 | Constance Morella, US Congresswoman (R-MD) 1987-2003, US Ambassador to OECD 2003-07 | Sam Nunn, US Senator (D-GA) 1972-96 | A. John Porter, US Congressman (R-IL) 19802001 | Tom Ridge, Secretary of Homeland Security 2003-05, Governor (R-PA) 1995-2001 | ADM Gary Roughead, USN (Ret.), Fmr. Chief of Naval Operations | Warren Rudman, US Senator (R-NH) 1980-92, Fmr. Co-Chair, PSA Advisory Board | Christopher Shays, US Congressman (R-CT) 1987-2009 | George Shultz, Secretary of State 1982-89 | Olympia J. Snowe, US Senator (R-ME) 1995-2013 | GEN Gordon R. Sullivan, USA (Ret.), Fmr. Chief of Staff, US Army, Chairman, CNA Military Advisory Board | Timothy E. Wirth, US Senator (D-CO) 1987-93 | Frank Wisner, Undersecretary of State 1992-93 | R. James Woolsey, Director of Central Intelligence 1993-95, Cofounder, US Energy Security Council | GEN Anthony Zinni, USMC (Ret.), Fmr. Commander in Chief, US Central Command 88 http://www.psaonline.org/article.php?id=976 and http://youtu.be/wf21Du67ls0 89 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/14/climate-change-energy-shocks-nsa-prism 86 87

SSD2 :: 14

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict rapidly escalating.

Furthermore, many of the remaining exploitable sources of freshwater are in river basins shared by two or more sovereign states. These facts present the potential for violent conflict over water unless affected states can develop and use their common water resources in a cooperative, sustainable, and equitable manner. The United States, in its National Security Strategy and Foreign Affairs Policy, has called attention to the problem of resource scarcity as having important implications for American security.‖90 *** ―The effect of environmental problems on national security, now commonly referred to as "environmental security," is important to the US military. The concept first appeared in the 1991 National Security Strategy (NSS), when President Bush recognized that the failure to competently manage natural resources could contribute to potential conflict.91 The 1993 National Security Strategy echoed this concern and included the environment as an element of economic power.92 When A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement was published in February 1996, it amplified the importance of the environment as a component of United States national security even further.93 The 1996 NSS recognizes that competition for natural resources "is already a very real risk to regional stability around the world."94 It also states that national and international environmental degradation poses a direct threat to economic growth and to global and national security.95 Thus, as one of the institutions charged with protecting our national security, the US military also should be concerned with all aspects of environmental security.‖ 96

*** ―Environmental issues can adversely influence our national security in two important ways. One of these is potential or actual conflict between nations or groups that can arise as a result of disputes over natural resources or transnational environmental problems. A second way that environmental issues can directly affect national security is by destabilizing governments or institutions in a country afflicted with environmental degradation. Haiti is a good example. As early as 1978, the President's Council on Environmental Quality noted that deforestation in Haiti was almost complete and then predicted that social disruption and instability would soon follow.97 It took 16 more years and a military overthrow of duly elected President Aristide to spark renewed US military involvement in Haiti. However, it is clear that the environmental devastation of that country's forests, soil and water supplies created a cause LTC Kurt F. Ubbelohde (10 April 2000): Freshwater Scarcity in the Nile River Basin, US Army War College http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA378148 91 National Security Strategy of the United States, Washington, DC, US Gov Printing Office, 1991.

92 National Security Strategy of the United States, Washington, DC, US Gov Printing Office, 1993 93 A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, Washington, DC, US Government Printing Office, February 1996.

94 Ibid., at 26.

95 Ibid., at 30.

96 Colonel Brian X. Bush (13 March 1997): Promoting Environmental Security during Contingency Operations; US Army War College http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA326869 97 Environmental Quality. 1978 Annual Report on the Environment Washington: Council on Environmental Quality, Washington, DC, US Government Printing Office, 1978.

90

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict and effect between environmental issues and Haiti's economic deprivation, massive migration and the basic instability of virtually every economic or governmental institution in the country.‖98

[1]

1974: NSSM 200: National Security Study Memorandum: Implications of

Worldwide Population Growth For U.S.

Security and Overseas Interests

(The Kissinger Report)99: Rapid population growth adversely affects every aspect of economic and social progress in developing countries. It absorbs large amounts of resources needed for more productive investment in development. It requires greater expenditures for health, education and other social services, particularly in urban areas.

It increases the dependency load per worker so that a high fraction of the output of the productive age group is needed to support dependents.

It reduces family savings and domestic investment.

It increases existing severe pressures on limited agricultural land in countries where the world's "poverty problem" is concentrated. It creates a need for use of large amounts of scarce foreign exchange for food imports (or the loss of food surpluses for export). Finally, it intensifies the already severe unemployment and underemployment problems of many developing countries where not enough productive jobs are created to absorb the annual increments to the labor force.

Even in countries with good resource/population ratios, rapid population growth causes problems for several reasons: First, large capital investments generally are required to exploit unused resources. Second, some countries already have high and growing unemployment and lack the means to train new entrants to their labor force. Third, there are long delays between starting effective family planning programs and reducing fertility, and even longer delays between reductions in fertility and population stabilization. Hence there is substantial danger of vastly overshooting population targets if population growth is not moderated in the near future. [..] Moderation of population growth offers benefits in terms of resources saved for investment and/or higher per capita consumption. If resource requirements to support fewer children are reduced and the funds now allocated for construction of schools, houses, hospitals and other essential facilities are invested in productive activities, the impact on the growth of GNP and per capita income may be significant. In addition, economic and social progress resulting from population control will further contribute to the decline in fertility rates. The relationship is reciprocal, and can take the form of either a vicious or a virtuous circle.

Implications of Population Pressures for National Security

Colonel Brian X. Bush (13 March 1997): Promoting Environmental Security during Contingency Operations; US Army War College http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA326869 99 http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB500.pdf 98

SSD2 :: 16

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict It seems well understood that the impact of population factors on the subjects already considered -development, food requirements, resources, environment -- adversely affects the welfare and progress of countries in which we have a friendly interest and thus indirectly adversely affects broad U.S. interests as well. [..] A recent study* of forty-five local conflicts involving Third World countries examined the ways in which population factors affect the initiation and course of a conflict in different situations. The study reached two major conclusions: 1. ". . . population factors are indeed critical in, and often determinants of, violent conflict in developing areas. Segmental (religious, social, racial) differences, migration, rapid population growth, differential levels of knowledge and skills, rural/urban differences, population pressure and the special location of population in relation to resources -in this rough order of importance -all appear to be important contributions to conflict and violence...

2. Clearly, conflicts which are regarded in primarily political terms often have demographic roots: Recognition of these relationships appears crucial to any understanding or prevention of such hostilities." [..] Professor Philip Hauser of the University of Chicago has suggested the concept of "population complosion" to describe the situation in many developing countries when (a) more and more people are born into or move into and are compressed in the same living space under (b) conditions and irritations of different races, colours, religions, languages, or cultural backgrounds, often with differential rates of population growth among these groups, and (c) with the frustrations of failure to achieve their aspirations for better standards of living for themselves or their children. To these may be added pressures for and actual international migration. These population factors appear to have a multiplying effect on other factors involved in situations of incipient violence.

These adverse conditions appear to contribute frequently to harmful developments of a political nature: Juvenile delinquency, thievery and other crimes, organized brigandry, kidnapping and terrorism, food riots, other outbreaks of violence; guerrilla warfare, communal violence, separatist movements, revolutionary movements and counter-revolutionary coupe. All of these bear upon the weakening or collapse of local, state, or national government functions.

Beyond national boundaries, population factors appear to have had operative roles in some past politically disturbing legal or illegal mass migrations, border incidents, and wars. If current increased population pressures continue they may have greater potential for future disruption in foreign relations.

Perhaps most important, in the last decade population factors have impacted more severely than before on availabilities of agricultural land and resources, industrialization, pollution and the environment. All this is occurring at a time when international communications have created rising expectations

SSD2 :: 17

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict which are being frustrated by slow development and inequalities of distribution.

Population growth and inadequate resources.

Where population size is greater than available resources, or is expanding more rapidly than the available resources, there is a tendency toward internal disorders and violence and, sometimes, disruptive international policies or violence. The higher the rate of growth, the more salient a factor population increase appears to be. A sense of increasing crowding, real or perceived, seems to generate such tendencies, especially if it seems to thwart obtaining desired personal or national goals.

2. Populations with a high proportion of growth.

The young people, who are in much higher proportions in many LDCs, are likely to be more volatile, unstable, prone to extremes, alienation and violence than an older population. These young people can more readily be persuaded to attack the legal institutions of the government or real property of the "establishment," "imperialists," multinational corporations, or other ── often foreign ── influences blamed for their troubles.

3. Population factors with social cleavages.

When adverse population factors of growth, movement, density, excess, or pressure coincide with racial, religious, color, linguistic, cultural, or other social cleavages, there will develop the most potentially explosive situations for internal disorder, perhaps with external effects. When such factors exist together with the reality or sense of relative deprivation among different groups within the same country or in relation to other countries or peoples, the probability of violence increases significantly.

[2]

Butts, Kent (25 April 1994): Environmental Security: A DOD Partnership

for Peace100; US Army War College: [Report on the Dept of Defense effort to create a Proactive Environmental Security Peace Strategy as part of the Fifth Senior Environmental Leadership Conference.] ―Environmental degradation imperils nations' most fundamental aspect of security by undermining the natural support systems on which all of human activity depends.‖ - Michael Renner, 1989101 The DOD environmental security mission has its roots in the fact that environmental problems that lead to instability and contention are being ignored, and U.S. combat forces are becoming involved in the resulting conflict.

In addition, DOD's environmental security mission supports the National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States and must be understood in that context.

Butts, Kent Hughes (25 April 1994): Environmental Security: A DoD Partnership for Peace http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB339.pdf 101 Michael Renner, National Security: The Economic and Environmental Dimensions, Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, May 1989. Another early and important effort to broaden the definition of national security to include environmental challenges was Jessica Tuchman Matthews, "Redefining Security," Foreign Affairs, Spring 1989, pp.

162-178.

100

SSD2 :: 18

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict As stated by the National Security Strategy, "The stress from environmental challenges is already contributing to political conflict." Recognizing the importance of environmental issues to U.S. national security interests, the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Environmental Security defined DOD's role in environmental security to include "mitigating the impacts of adverse environmental actions leading to international instability."102 Instability and conflict often result from the poverty created by the economic regression of resource depletion or scarcity. The abuse of power by the leaders of many developing countries has frequently manifested itself in exploitive resource management practices, a wasting away of the economic infrastructure, human suffering and ethnic-based competition for increasingly scarce resources, and, ultimately, to conflict. [..]

The global population has grown geometrically and will double over the period from 1950 to 2000, bringing environmental issues to the fore. Rates of global population continue to increase, particularly in the vulnerable developing world, accelerating demand for food and a broad range of other natural resources. The global rates of consumption of natural resources are far greater than the ecosystem has previously endured.10 The world is rapidly moving beyond local shortages, which historically have created local conflict, to regional or transboundary resource shortages with the potential to escalate into far reaching hostilities involving U.S. forces. In numerous regions the ability of the earth to replenish its renewable resources, even with the human intervention of irrigation and fertilizer, has already been exceeded. Indeed, these very interventions often create unforeseen, adverse environmental consequences. Thus, the frequently ignored, long-lead-time environmental factors have reached their thresholds and are causing instability that security policy analysts cannot ignore. [..] The most notable environmental threats to U.S. security are: • Global: competition for or threatened denial of strategic resources; ozone depletion; global warming; loss of biodiversity; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; effects of demilitarization of nuclear, chemical, biological and conventional weapons; space debris; and inability or unwillingness of countries to comply with international environmental agreements and standards. • Regional: environmental terrorism, accident or disaster; vector-borne communicable diseases; regional conflicts caused by scarcity/denial of resources; cross border and global common contamination; and environmental factors affecting military access to land, air, and water. • State: environmental degradation of the resource base on which governmental legitimacy depends; risks to public health and the environment from DOD activities; increasing restrictions on military operations and access to air, land, and water; Sherri Wasserman Goodman, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, (Environmental Security), Statement Before the Subcommittee on Installation and Facilities, May 13, 1993.

102

SSD2 :: 19

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict inefficient use of military resources; reduced weapons systems performance; demilitarization of nuclear, chemical, and conventional weapons systems; and erosion of public trust.

Recommendations: • Appoint a special assistant to the National Security Advisor for International Environmental Security Affairs and create an interagency working group, chaired by the Special Assistant, to develop a Presidential Decision Document establishing U.S. environmental security policy.

• Establish environmental security as a principal objective of the National Security Strategy and include environmental issues in National Security Council threat assessments and foreign policy planning.

• Emphasize the linkage between environmental security objectives and the achievement of current, primary congressional and administration interests of democratic reform, economic development, and conflict resolution.

• In conjunction with the United Nations, use DOD capabilities to enforce international treaties and agreements.

• Create a DOD Environmental Crisis Monitoring Center to warn the policymaking community of chronic environmental issues before political positions have hardened and policy options have narrowed.

[3]

Department of the Army, Field Manual 100-23, Peace Operations103.

Washington, DC: Headquarters, Department of the Army, December 1994, p. 28.

The seventh principle of humanitarian action in armed conflict104 says: ―Contextualization: Effective humanitarian action should encompass a comprehensive view of overall needs and of the impact of interventions. Encouraging respect for human rights and addressing the underlying causes of conflicts are essential elements. (own emphasis)

[4]

1995: White House: National Security Strategy105: ―Increasing competition for the dwindling reserves of uncontaminated air, arable land, fisheries and other food sources, and water, once considered 'free' goods, is already a very real risk to regional stability around the world. The range of risks serious enough to jeopardize international stability extends to massive population flight from man-made or natural catastrophes, such as Chernobyl or the East African drought, and to large-scale ecosystem damage caused by industrial pollution, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, ozone depletion,

http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/fm100-23(94).pdf Humanitarian Actions in Times of War, by Larry Minear & Thomas Weiss 105 February 1995: A National Security Study of Engagement and Enlargement http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nss/nss-95.pdf 103 104

SSD2 :: 20

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict desertification, change.106

[5]

oceanic

pollution

and

ultimately

climate

April 1996: MAJ William E David, USA Military Intelligence: Environmental

Scarcity as a Cause of Violent Conflict107, School of Advanced Military Studies; United States Army Command and General Staff College This monograph argues that the Army is unprepared for the implications of environmental scarcity as a cause of violent conflict. The proof follows in the next three chapters. Chapter Tow provides a conceptual model for examining the causal relationship between environmental scarcity and violent conflict. It shows causation by answering two questions. First, does scarcity cause specific social effects, such as population migration and poverty? Second, so the social effects that result from scarcity cause violent conflict? [..] [This chapter concludes that conflicts arising from environmental scarcity will occur more frequently in the future and threaten U.S. national security interests. Third, does doctrine address conflicts caused by environmental scarcities? The doctrinal review reveals that the Army does not recognize environmental scarcity as a cause of conflict. Chapter Four synthesizes the findings from the preceding chapters, showing that the Army is intellectually unprepared for conflicts caused by environmental scarcity. The monograph ends with two recommendations. First, the Army should recognize environmental causes of war in its doctrine. Second, the Army should adopt the Modified Conflict Causality Model as a doctrinal tool for predicting and evaluating future conflicts. [..] Humans adversely affect the environment. Contaminated water, deforestation, soil erosion, and the depletion of fisheries are but some of the outcomes. Although few people would disagree with the causation between human activities and environmental degradation, their reactions place them in one of two categories: cornucopians or neo-Malthusians. Cornucopians do not worry about protecting any single natural resource. They believe that human ingenuity will always allow the substitution of more abundant resources to produce the same products and services. Neo-Malthusians put less faith in ingenuity, arguing that "renewable resources' is a misleading term. [..] The divergence between cornucopians and neo-Malthusians enters into the debate corcerning the causes of conflict.

Corncopians remain prisoners of the industrial revolution. They assume that there are only social cuases for social and political changes, neglecting the role of nature. However, Robert Kaplan noted: "nature is coming back with a vengeance, tied to population growth. It will have incredible security implications"[1] Neo-Malthusians realize that humans cannot seperate themselves from nature. The following causality National Security Strategy of the United States. February 1995, Washington, D. C: Government Printing Office, 1995, p. 18 107 http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA314878 106

SSD2 :: 21

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict analysis adheres to the neo-Malthusian perspective. therefore, it takes a holistic approahc toward causality, combining conflict studies and the study of the physical environment.

After providing a conflict causality model, this chapter uses six case studies to prove that violent conflicts can arise from environmental scarcities.

[6]

13 Mar 1997: Col BX Bush: Promoting Environmental Security during

Contingency Operations108; US Army War College ―The effect of environmental problems on national security, now commonly referred to as "environmental security," is important to the US military. The concept first appeared in the 1991 National Security Strategy (NSS), when President Bush recognized that the failure to competently manage natural resources could contribute to potential conflict.[1] The 1993 National Security Strategy echoed this concern and included the environment as an element of economic power.[2] When A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement was published in February 1996, it amplified the importance of the environment as a component of United States national security even further.[3] The 1996 NSS recognizes that competition for natural resources "is already a very real risk to regional stability around the world."[4] It also states that national and international environmental degradation poses a direct threat to economic growth and to global and national security.[5] Thus, as one of the institutions charged with protecting our national security, the US military also should be concerned with all aspects of environmental security.‖ ―Environmental issues can adversely influence our national security in two important ways. One of these is potential or actual conflict between nations or groups that can arise as a result of disputes over natural resources or transnational environmental problems. A second way that environmental issues can directly affect national security is by destabilizing governments or institutions in a country afflicted with environmental degradation. Haiti is a good example. As early as 1978, the President's Council on Environmental Quality noted that deforestation in Haiti was almost complete and then predicted that social disruption and instability would soon follow.[6] It took 16 more years and a military overthrow of duly elected President Aristide to spark renewed US military involvement in Haiti. However, it is clear that the environmental devastation of that country's forests, soil and water supplies created a cause and effect between environmental issues and Haiti's economic deprivation, massive migration and the basic instability of virtually every economic or governmental institution in the country.‖

[7]

Spring 1997: Canadian Security Intelligence Service Archived: Commentary

No. 71: Environmental Scarcity and Conflict109, by Peter Gizewski, Project on 108 109

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA326869 http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/cmmntr/cm71-eng.asp

SSD2 :: 22

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict Environment Population and Security, Peace and Conflict Studies Program, University of Toronto The past decade has witnessed growing recognition of the importance of environmental factors for national and international security. In 1987, the UN World Commission on Environment and Development pointed to environmental stress as "a possible cause as well as a result of conflict". In 1992, the UN Security Council warned that sources of instability in the economic, social, humanitarian, and ecological fields included military and political "threats to peace and stability". Two years later, the Clinton Administration observed that "terrorism, narcotics trafficking, environmental degradation, rapid population growth and refugee flows ...have security implications for present and long-term American policy".

A wealth of popular commentary in the past few years has asserted the existence of general links between environmental stress and violence and security concerns. But proponents of such linkages tend to sensationalise the issue, ignoring empirical research and exaggerating the importance of environmental pressures as a conflict-generating force. In fact, until recently, scholars and policy makers functioned with relatively limited understanding of the causal mechanisms by which environmental scarcity can lead to conflict.

Recent work has yielded results which partially fill this gap.

Employing a series of detailed examples in which environment exhibits a prima facie link to social instability, such case studies carefully trace a causal connection between scarcity and conflict, and advance a set of key propositions which describe these links and the conditions under which they apply.

General Insights: Current work on linkages between environment and conflict emphasizes the conflict-generating potential of renewable resource scarcities (i.e. cropland, fresh water, fuel wood and fish).

While the strategic significance of non-renewable resources (e.g. petroleum, minerals) has long been recognized, market forces which reduce their demand and stimulate substitution and technical innovation have served increasingly to mitigate their scarcity and conflict-generating potential. Such forces have been less effective in preventing scarcities of renewables-scarcities which, growing evidence shows, threaten the internal stability of a number of developing countries.

According to the University of Toronto's Thomas Homer-Dixon, scarcities of agricultural land, forests, fresh water and fish are those which contribute the most to violence. These deficiencies can be demand-induced, a function of population growth within a region; supply-induced, resulting from the degradation of resources within the region; or structural, the result of an unequal distribution of resources throughout the society. The three processes are not mutually exclusive and mayand often do-occur simultaneously, acting in tandem.

SSD2 :: 23

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict The degradation and depletion of renewable resources can generate a range of social effects. It can work to encourage powerful groups within society to shift resource distribution in their favour. This process, known as "resource capture" generates profits for elites while intensifying the effects of scarcity among the poor or weak. A process of "ecological marginalization" often follows with poorer groups forced to seek the means of survival in more ecologically fragile regions such as steep upland slopes, areas at risk of desertification, tropical rain forests, and low quality public lands within urban areas. The high population densities in these regions, combined with a lack of capital to protect the local ecosystem, breeds severe environmental scarcity and chronic poverty.

Other social effects can include decreased agricultural potential, regional economic decline, population displacement and a disruption of legitimized institutions and social relations.

Most significantly, these scarcities can, either individually or in combination, generate forces and processes which contribute to violent conflict among groups within society.

Such scarcities may act to strengthen group identities based on ethnic, class or religious differences, most notably by intensifying competition among groups for ever dwindling resources. At the same time, they can work to undermine the legitimacy of the state and its capacity to meet challenges. As the balance of power gradually shifts from the state to the challenging groups, the prospects for violence increase. Such violence tends to be subnational, diffuse and persistent.

States may prove capable of avoiding suffering and social stress by adapting to scarcities. They can pursue programs and policies which encourage more sustainable resource use. Alternatively, a state may disengage itself from reliance on scarce resources by producing goods and services less dependent on such resources.

The resulting products could then be traded for items which local scarcities preclude the state from producing. More often, however, countries lack the social and technical ingenuity needed to adapt successfully to the shortages they face.

[8]

10 Apr 2000: LTC Kurt F. Ubbelohde: Freshwater Scarcity in the Nile

River Basin110, US Army War College ―According to a growing body of literature, scarcity of freshwater to meet the many needs of Third World countries is rapidly escalating.

Furthermore, many of the remaining exploitable sources of freshwater are in river basins shared by two or more sovereign states. These facts present the potential for violent conflict over water unless affected states can develop and use their common water resources in a cooperative, sustainable, and equitable manner. The United States, in its National Security Strategy and Foreign Affairs Policy, has called attention to the problem of resource scarcity as having important implications for American security.‖

110

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA378148

SSD2 :: 24

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [9]

Sep 2010: Bundeswehr: Peak Oil: Security Policy Implications of Scarce

Resources111 Effects of Peak Oil on Armed Forces Severe impediments to mobility as a consequence of peak oil would have a considerable effect on all German security bodies, including the Bundeswehr.

In the long run, not only all societies and economies worldwide but armed forces as well will be faced with the various and difficult challenges of transformation towards a ―post-fossil‖ age. Implications for Germany: A markedly reduced mobility of the German Armed Forces would have various consequences – not only for the available equipment and training, but also for their (global) power projection and intervention capabilities. Given the size and complexity of many transport and weapon systems as well as the high standards set for qualities like robustness in operation, alternative energy and drive propulsion systems would hardly be available to the necessary extent in the short term.

One of the consequences to be initially expected would be further cutbacks in the use of large weapon systems for training purposes in all services, thus raising the need for more ―virtualised‖ training. However, effects on current and planned missions would most likely be even more severe. Deployment to the theatre of operations, the operation of bases and the mission itself are considerably more energy- and above all fuel-intensive than the mere upkeep of armed forces. [..] Peak oil, however, is unavoidable. This study shows the existence of a very serious risk that a global transformation of economic and social structures, triggered by a long-term shortage of important raw materials, will not take place without frictions regarding security policy. The disintegration of complex economic systems and their interdependent infrastructures has immediate and in some cases profound effects on many areas of life, particularly in industrialised countries.

[10]

2010: White House: National Security Strategy112: Challenges like climate change, pandemic disease, and resource scarcity demand new innovation. Meanwhile, the nation that leads the world in building a clean energy economy will enjoy a substantial economic and security advantage. That is why the Administration is investing heavily in research, improving education in science and math, promoting developments in energy, and expanding international cooperation. Transform our Energy Economy: As long as we are dependent on fossil fuels, we need to ensure the security and free flow of global energy resources. But without significant and timely adjustments, our energy dependence will continue to undermine our security and prosperity. This will leave us vulnerable to energy supply disruptions and manipulation and to changes in the environment on an unprecedented scale.

English: http://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf May 2010: National Security Strategy http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf 111 112

SSD2 :: 25

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [11]

2012: January: Department of Defense: Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership:

Priorities for the 21st Century Defense113: In this resource-constrained era, we will also work with NATO allies to develop a ―Smart Defense‖ approach to pool, share, and specialize capabilities as needed to meet 21st century challenges. [..] Whenever possible, we will develop innovative, low-cost, and small-footprint approaches to achieve our security objectives, relying on exercises, rotational presence, and advisory capabilities. [..] A reduction in resources will require innovative and creative solutions to maintain our support for allied and partner interoperability and building partner capacity.

However, with reduced resources, thoughtful choices will need to be made regarding the location and frequency of these operations. [..] The balance between available resources and our security needs has never been more delicate.

[12]

Dec 2012: U.S. Forest Service: Report Predicts a Strain on Natural

Resources Due to Rapid Population Growth114.

U.S. Forest Service report outlines how a growing population and increased urbanization in the next 50 years will drain the nation's natural resources including water supplies, open space, and forests.

Agriculture Under Secretary Harris Sherman had this to say about the report: "We should all be concerned by the projected decline in our nation‘s forests and the corresponding loss of the many critical services they provide such as clean drinking water, wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, wood products and outdoor recreation."

Walking the National Security – Scarcity & Conflict -- Talk to Support the Troops: Procreate and Consume below carrying capacity, to enable the avoidance of resource war conflict [23] Vice Admiral Dennis V. McGinn, USN (Ret); Former Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfare Requirements and Programs: Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security115; Center for Naval Analysis, CAN: ―A yellow ribbon on a car or truck is a wonderful message of symbolic support for our troops. I‘d like to see the American people take it several steps further. If you say a yellow ribbon is the ‗talk,‘ then being energy efficient is the ‗walk‘. A http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf http://www.fs.fed.us/news/2012/releases/12/report.shtml 115 http://www.cna.org/reports/energy 113 114

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict yellow ribbon on a big, gas-guzzling SUV is a mixed message. We need to make better energy choices in our homes, businesses and transportation, as well as to support our leaders in making policies that change the way we develop and use energy. If we Americans truly embrace this idea, it is a triple win: it reduces our dependence on foreign oil, it reduces our impact on the climate and it makes our nation much more secure.‖

[24] Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn; Energy, Climate Change, and the Military: Implications for National Security116; Woodrow Wilson Center for Environmental Security: ―Global climate change will pose serious threats to water supplies and agricultural production, leading to mass migration in some cases. At the same time we will see an increasing demand for a dwindling supply of fossil fuels. These factors mean and intense competition for key and vital resources, around the globe and that leads to conflict. ―This report is different to many other reports, involving military leaders. That is because in it, we make a direct appeal to the American people. We talk in this report about the amazing sacrifices the American people made during World War II, planting victory gardens, cutting down on fuel use, saving scrap metal and old rubber, sacrifices, or maybe just examples of common sense and prudent lifestyle changes. Whatever you call them, the steps taken by the American people then, shortened the war and saved lives.

And I believe the same can be said today about these challenges of energy security and climate security. There are individual steps that every American can take. Using less energy. Being more efficient with the energy that we do use. Supporting new policies to help our country take a new energy path. These are the steps that can help us avoid, or shorten wars in the future. Those wars over competition for vital resources. These are steps that can save lives. They may cost money yes, but if we don't spend the money now, we will still pay, and we will pay much more later. In fact, we'll pay in American lives lost.

American civilians played an important role in World War II because they understood the stakes and because they were asked to do so. General Wald made the stakes clear, and our report makes the stakes clear. Our current energy posture poses a significant and urgent threat to our national security, militarily, economically and diplomatically.

Hopefully more Americans will understand these stakes, and that these consequences will affect them. Hopefully more Americans will hear the very direct request from our Commander in Chief and from this small group of a dozen retired Admirals and Generals.

116

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1FMeVH2AgI

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict The American people, all of us, through our energy choices can contribute directly to the security of our nation. It is a triple win. It makes us energy independent. It reduces our effect on the environment, and it makes our nation very much more secure.‖

[25] James Woolsey, Former CIA Director; Climate Change and National Security117: ―I was testifying before a House Committee a few months ago and one of the members was very sceptical of climate change and was arguing with me, because I presented some of the reasons why I thought climate change was a serious problem, and I finally said "Congressman look, set aside climate change, do you realize that seven of the nine things that I've suggested will help us be allot more resilient against terrorism or oil cut-offs." And he said, "Oh if you are doing them for that reason, then its fine."‖

[26] James Woolsey (19 October 2009): How your Gas Money Funds Terrorism118, American Jewish Committee, Washington DC.: ―The author of the fine book The Looming Tower, about Al'Qaeda and 9/11, Laurence Wright, writes for the New Yorker, has a fascinating sentence in the Looming Tower. He says that with a little over 1% of the worlds Muslims, Saudi's control about 90% of the worlds Islamic Institutions. Now what does that mean to the rest of us? Wahaabi Islam, the religion of Saudi Arabia, if you read the Imam's Fatwa's, rather than what they say to us, the Fatwa's are somewhere between murderous and genocidal with respect to their discussion of Shiite Muslims, Jews, homosexuals and apostates. They are massively oppressive of women in many, many ways. They are focussed on the establishment of a worldwide Caliphate, a theocratic dictatorship. That is essentially Al'Qaeda's doctrine. There is no substantive difference between Al'Qaeda and the Wahaabi's of Saudi Arabia want to take us. The question is 'Who's in charge'? So its somewhat like the feud between the Trotskyites and the Stalinists in the 1920's and 30's. Because the reach of Wahaabi Madrassas is so great, you have all over Pakistan, as well as the West Bank and in allot of other parts of the world, little boys being taught hatred essentially. Now that produces a situation in which by shelling out essentially a billion dollars a day at seventy dollars a barrel of oil, for imported oil, and since allot of that money goes to the Middle East, you and I shouldn't have any question about who is paying for the other side of this long war that we are in. If you want to know who is paying for those Madrassas in Pakistan or the West Bank to teach those little boys to hate, just next time you go to a filling station, before you get out to charge your gasoline and credit card, turn the rear-view mirror just a few inches, so you are looking into your own eyes. Now you 117 118

http://youtu.be/NfobHy0a9CU http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNDiQUBjR1o

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict know who is paying for those little boys to be taught to hate.

The situation we have with the Wahaabi's of Saudi Arabia is not too far from what would be the case if Ferdinand and Isabella and Torquemada running the Spanish Inquisition were still around in Spain and Spain drilled down and found 25% of the worlds oil under Spain. Ferdinand and Isabella turn to Torquemada and they say "We know that you like to pick the pope and pick the head of the Lutherans and the Evangelicals and the President of Notre Dame and that‘s all fine with us, here's six, seven, eight billion dollars a year, just go to it. That‘s the kind of problem the world, would hypothetically have if Torquemada and the Inquisition were still around and that‘s the kind of problem we've got with the Wahaabi's of Saudi Arabia.‖

SCARCITY AND CONFLICT: ACADEMIC RESEARCH Academic Reports: [26.1] Proposed Legal Principles for Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development119, adopted by the WCED Experts Group on Environmental Law, WCED Our Common Future (1987) 348.

[26.2] World Scientists Warning to Humanity, issued 18 November 1992, issued by 1700 leading scientists from 70 countries120, including 102 Nobel Prize laureates in Science.

[26.3] Choucri, Nazli: Population & Conflict: New Dimensions of Population Dynamics; Population Dynamics and Local Conflict [26.4] Guillebaud, J (2007): YouthQuake: Population, fertility and environment in the 21st Century, Optimum Population Trust [26.5]

Hardin, G (1968/12/13): Tragedy of the Commons121, Science.

[26.6] Hardin, G (1986/08/10): Cultural Distinguished Service Award Acceptance Speech.

Carrying

[26.7] Hardin G (1991): Carrying Capacity Environmental Science: Sustaining the Earth.

and

Capacity122, Quality

of

AIBS Life123,

[26.8] Heinberg, R (2006/04/30): Population, Resources, and Human Idealism, Energy Bulletin. http://www.un-documents.net/ocf-a1.htm http://www.worldtrans.org/whole/warning.html and http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/ucs-statement.txt Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4j8L_BNmxU 121 www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons.html 122 garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_cultural_carrying_capacity.html 123 www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles_pdf/cc_quality_of_life.pdf 119 120

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [26.9] Homer-Dixon, T (1991): On The Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict124.

[26.10] Homer-Dixon, T, & Boutwell, J, & Rathjens, G (1993): Environmental change and violent conflict: Growing scarcities of renewable resources can contribute to social instability and civil strife125. Scientific American, 268(2), pp. 3845

[26.11] Homer-Dixon, T (1994): Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases.

[26.12] Homer-Dixon, T (June 1995): Strategies for Studying Causation in Complex Ecological Political Systems126.

http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/thresh/thresh1.htm http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/evidence/evid1.htm 126 http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/evidence/evid1.htm 124 125

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [26.13] Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Gizewski, Peter (June 1995): ―Urban Growth and Violence: Will the Future Resemble the Past?,‖127 Environment, Population and Security.

[26.14] Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Howard, Philip (June 1995), ―Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Chiapas, Mexico,‖ 128 Environment, Population and Security.

[26.15] Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Kelly, Kimberley (June 1995): ―Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Gaza,‖129 Environment, Population and Security.

[26.16] Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Percival, Valerie (June 1995): ―Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Rwanda,‖130 Environment, Population and Security.

[26.17] Homer-Dixon, T (Sep 1995): The Ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity131.

[26.18] Homer-Dixon & Percival (Oct 1995): Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: Case of South Africa132.

[26.19] Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Gizewski, Peter (April 1996): ―Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Pakistan,‖133 Environment, Population and Security.

[26.20] Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Schwartz, Daniel; Deligiannis, Tom (Summer 2000): ―The Environment and Violent Conflict: A Response to Gleditsch‘s Critique and Suggestions for Future Research,‖134 Environmental Change & Security Project Report: 77-93.

[26.21] Leahy, E & Engelman R & Vogel C & Haddock S & Preston T (2003): The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer More Equitable World, Population Action Int‘l [26.22] Parthemore, C & Nagl, J (2010/09/27): Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post-Petroleum Environment135, Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

[26.23] Simmons, M (2000/09/30): Revisiting the Limits to Growth: Could Club of Rome Have Been Correct, After All?136; Energy Bulletin. http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/eps/urban/urban1.htm http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/eps/chiapas/chiapas1.htm 129 http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/eps/gaza/gaza1.htm 130 http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/eps/rwanda/rwanda1.htm 131 http://www.library.utoronto.ca/pcs/ingen/ingen.htm 132 http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/eps/south/sa1.htm 133 http://www.homerdixon.com/projects/eps/pakistan/pak1.htm 134 http://www.homerdixon.com/wp-content/uploads/2000/06/Response-to-Gleditsch.pdf 135 www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Fueling%20the%20Future%20Force_NaglParthemore.pdf 127 128

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MEDIA CENSORSHIP: POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT CONNECTION Corporate Media’s Pro-Growth Scarcity-Conflict ‘If It bleeds, it leads’ Agenda is a significant cause of Citizens Eco-Illiterate ignorance of how to contribute to Sustainable Security: Procreate and Consume below carrying capacity, to avoid scarcity induced resource war conflict; and elect Eco-Literate politicians to enact laws in harmony with carrying capacity limits: [27] Academic Theory: Terrorism Connection:

Media’s

Censorship-Environment-Population-

[27.1] How and Why Journalists Avoid the Population-Environment Connection: The argument that journalists and editors consciously and unconsciously practice self-censorship of population-environment issues in the social conflict and environmental destruction stories they report upon is well documented in Dr. Maher‘s thesis, How and Why Journalists Avoid the Population-Environment Connection, which no media publication has disputed.

A.

Maher, MT (1995): Media Framing and Salience of the Population Issue, PhD dissertation.

B.

Maher, MT (1997/03): How and Why Journalists Avoid the PopulationEnvironment Connection137, University of Southwestern Louisiana, Population and Environment, Volume 18, Number 4, March 1977; Reprinted in 1997 by the Carrying Capacity Network, Focus, 18 (2), 21-37.

C.

Paddock William (Jan 1998): Addendum on Journalists Noncoverage of Population; Population and Environment138; Vol 19, No 3, pp.221-224.

D.

Ehrlich, Paul and Anne (1998-89): Speaking Out on Population: A conspiracy of silence is limiting action on the world's most basic environmental problem, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 198889, at 36-37.

E.

Wheeler Timothy (September 2003): Skirting the Population Issue: Why Journalists Need to Tackle Growth139; Environment Writer.

www.clubofrome.org/?p=1869 issuu.com/js-ror/docs/mahertm_journo-env-pop-connection 138 http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/27503579?uid=2&uid=4&sid=21102201433171 139 http://www.environmentwriter.org/resources/articles/pop93a.htm 136 137

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict F.

Earth Focus Episode 36: National Security and Climate Change140; LinkTV reports on the National Security Journalism Initiative141 setup by Northwestern University Medill School of Journalism to educate journalists about how to integrate national security concerns of scarcity and conflict within its conventional social problem reporting.

―The insurance industry, which is a key barometer of these things, has reached the conclusion that whatever your politics are on [climate change], the costs of extreme weather are so great and the patterns over the last couple of decades are so distinct that the corporate establishment absolutely must recognize these risks.‖ - Paul Barrett, Bloomberg BusinessWeek reporter142 ―We didn't find many climate change deniers in the insurance industry. They probably have a commercial interest in taking the risks seriously.‖ - Chris Nicholson, Bloomberg News

Mainstream Connection:

Media’s

Silence

of

Overshoot-Scarcity-Conflict

[28] Max Greenberg (3 July 2013): Study: Media Still Largely Fail to Put Wildfires in Climate Context143; Media Matters: [28.1] Just 6 Percent Of Wildfire Coverage Mentioned Climate Change. Major television and print media outlets improved over last year in connecting climate change to wildfires in Colorado, New Mexico, California and other Western states, but still generally failed to mention the link. Only 6 percent of total wildfire items mentioned climate change, including 9 percent of major print coverage and 4 percent of TV coverage. In a 2012 study encompassing a similar period, only 3 percent of wildfire coverage mentioned climate change (6 percent of print articles, 2 percent of TV segments). Coverage of July 2012 wildfires improved on those numbers. [Media Matters, 7/3/12144] [Media Matters, 8/6/12145]

http://youtu.be/NtHLlanQ7-o http://oilchangeproject.nationalsecurityzone.org/ 142 Joe Strupp (3 July 2013): Business Journalists: Climate Change Deniares No Place in Our Reporting; Media Matters http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/07/03/business-journalists-climate-change-deniers-hav/194736 143 http://mediamatters.org/research/2013/07/03/study-media-still-largely-fail-to-put-wildfires/194733 144 http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/07/03/study-media-avoid-climate-context-in-wildfire-c/186921 145 http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/08/06/study-media-begin-to-connect-the-dots-between-c/189144 140 141

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [29] Jill Fitzsimmons (14 May 2013): Nightly News Covered the Royal Family More than Climate Change in 2012146; Media Matters: [29.1] Even during the warmest year on record in the U.S., the nightly news programs combined devoted only 12 full segments to climate change. By contrast, these programs dedicated over seven times more coverage to the royals in 2012.

[29.2] The disparity was greatest on ABC World News, which dedicated 43 segments to the royal family and only one to climate change. NBC Nightly News wasn't much better, devoting 38 segments to the royals and only 4 to climate change. CBS Evening News covered climate change the most -- in 7 segments -- but still less than its 11 segments on the royal family.

[29.3] This ongoing imbalance was illustrated just last week when scientists announced that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is set to surpass 400 parts per million, likely for the first time in human history. ABC World News and NBC Nightly News ignored the story, even as NBC found time to cover Prince Harry's visit to the United States.

[29.4] A previous Media Matters report found that the broadcast networks covered Donald Trump more than climate change in 2011.

[29.5] When the broadcast networks did report on climate change, they often failed to connect the dots between climate change and particular extreme weather events like last year's record-breaking heat, massive wildfires in the West, and Hurricane Sandy. Continuing this trend, these networks have failed to report on recent near-record flooding in the Midwest in the context of climate change, which has increased the frequency of large rain storms and exacerbated flood risks.

[30] Jill Fitzsimmons (9 May 2013): "New Normal" of California Wildfirers Doesn't Make the News147; Media Matters [30.1] As wildfires swept through southern California over the past week, experts warned that the state is in for an especially dangerous wildfire season due to unusually hot and dry conditions. But in their coverage of the fires, several of California's major newspapers have entirely ignored how climate change has increased wildfire risks in the region.

146 147

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/05/14/nightly-news-covered-the-royal-family-more-than/193795 http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/05/09/new-normal-of-california-wildfires-doesnt-make/193991

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[30.2] California's wildfire season kicked off early this year, with record temperatures, heavy winds and ongoing drought conditions fueling fires across the state that have threatened thousands of homes and businesses. California has already experienced 680 wildfires this year -- about 200 more than average for this period -- and the National Interagency Fire Service is predicting "above normal" potential for significant fires in northern and southern California this season.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Forest Service is preparing for a higher number of significant fires across the West.

[30.3] Climate experts warn that rising global temperatures are already leading to more frequent and more severe wildfires and longer fire seasons in the Southwest, calling large fires like those in California "the new normal." But several major print outlets in California have failed to make this connection, even after Governor Jerry Brown noted the link Monday.

[30.4] The San Francisco Chronicle, San Jose Mercury News, Orange County Register and U-T San Diego have not mentioned climate change while reporting on the recent fires. These papers also printed several stories from the Associated Press, none of which mentioned climate change. By contrast, the Sacramento Bee and the Los Angeles Times mentioned climate change in 33 percent and 27 percent of coverage, respectively.

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [31] Jill Fitzsimmons (7 May 2013): Study: Media Ignore Climate Context of Midwest Floods148; Media Matters [31.1]

Less Than 3 Percent Of Midwest Flood Stories Mention Climate Change

[31.2] ABC, NBC And CNN Entirely Ignore Climate Connection. ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN devoted 74 full segments to flooding in the Midwest, but only one -on CBS Evening News -- alluded to the fact that heavy downpours have increased (one percent of coverage). That segment did not explain that scientists have attributed this to climate change, and did not feature any scientists. MSNBC and Fox News were not included in this analysis because transcripts of their daytime coverage are not available in Nexis.

[32] Jill Fitzsimmons (11 March 2013): CBS Ignores Temperatures Are Highest in 4,000 Years149, Media Matters 148

Study

Finding

http://mediamatters.org/research/2013/05/07/study-media-ignore-climate-context-of-midwest-f/193936

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [32.1] CBS News is the only major TV news network other than Fox News to ignore a new study finding that global temperatures are higher now than at any time in the past 4,000 years, further evidence of the threat of rapid manmade global warming.

[33] Jill Fitzsimmons (8 January 2013): Study: Warmest Year on record received Cool Climate Coverage150; Media Matters [33.1] Media Matters analysis finds that news coverage of climate change on ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX remained low in 2012 despite record temperatures and a series of extreme weather events in the U.S. When the Sunday shows did discuss climate change, scientists were shut out of the debate while Republican politicians were given a platform to question the science.

[33.2] Even In Record-Breaking Year, Broadcast Climate Coverage Remained Minimal. In 2012, the U.S. experienced record-breaking heat, a historic drought, massive wildfires in the West, and Hurricane Sandy. Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice extent shattered the previous record low and the Greenland ice sheet saw the greatest melt in recorded history. According to the National Climatic Data Center, 2012 was the warmest year in recorded history for the contiguous U.S. Yet despite these illustrations of climate change, the broadcast news outlets devoted very little time to climate change in 2012, following a downward trend since 2009:

149 150

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/03/11/cbs-ignores-study-finding-temperatures-are-high/193003 http://mediamatters.org/research/2013/01/08/study-warmest-year-on-record-received-cool-clim/192079

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [34] Shauna Theel (27 June 2012): Study: Kardashians Get 40 Times More News Coverage than Ocean Acidification151; Media Matters: [34.1] Carbon dioxide emissions are not just warming up our atmosphere, they're also changing the chemistry of our oceans. This phenomenon is known as ocean acidification, or sometimes as global warming's "evil twin" or the "osteoporosis of the sea." Scientists have warned that it poses a serious threat to ocean life. Yet major American news outlets covered the Kardashians over 40 times more often than ocean acidification over the past year and a half.

[34.2] Rising carbon dioxide emissions have caused the oceans to become around 30 percent more acidic since the Industrial Revolution, and if we do not lower the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, the ocean surface could be up to 150 percent more acidic by 2100. At that level, the shells of some plankton would dissolve, large parts of the ocean would become inhospitable to coral reef growth, and the rapidity of the change could threaten much of the marine food web.

According to the National Research Council, the chemical changes are taking place "at an unprecedented rate and magnitude" and are "practically irreversible on a time scale of centuries."

[34.3] Despite a boom of recent scientific research documenting this threat, there has been a blackout on the topic at most media outlets. Since the end of 2010, ABC, NBC, and Fox News have completely ignored ocean acidification, and the Los Angeles Times, USA TODAY, Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, CNN, and CBS have barely mentioned it at all.

151

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/06/27/study-kardashians-get-40-times-more-news-covera/186703

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[34.4] In sum, ocean acidification is a major threat to our oceans and the millions of people who depend on them for their food and livelihoods. Yet 77 percent of Americans say they have read or heard nothing about ocean acidification, according to a 2010 survey conducted for the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. Of the 23 percent who say that they have heard of ocean acidification, only 32 percent understand that ocean acidification is caused by carbon dioxide. In other words, less than 8 percent of Americans understand the very basics of one of the largest threats to our oceans -and a major culprit for that ignorance is the national media.

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict [35] Jill Fitzsimmons (13 November 2012): Study: TV Media covered Biden's Smile nearly twice as much as Climate Change152; Media Matters [35.1] Climate change was almost entirely absent from the political discourse this election season, receiving less than an hour of TV coverage over three months from the major cable and broadcast networks excluding MSNBC. By contrast, those outlets devoted nearly twice as much coverage to Vice President Joe Biden's demeanor during his debate with Rep. Paul Ryan. When climate change was addressed, print and TV media outlets often failed to note the scientific consensus or speak to scientists.

[35.2] Several Outlets Did Not Interview A Single Scientist. In election coverage of climate change, media outlets often turned to politicians and journalists rather than scientists. Scientists made up less than 6 percent of TV guests and just 5 percent of those quoted by print outlets on climate change in the context of the election. ABC, NBC, Fox News, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, San Jose Mercury

152

http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/11/13/study-tv-media-covered-bidens-smile-nearly-twic/191341

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict News, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Denver Post, Dallas Morning News and the St. Petersburg-Tampa Bay Times, and the Des Moines Register did not interview or quote a single scientist on climate change.

[36] Jill Fitzsimmons (27 September 2012): Study: TV News covered Paul Ryan's Workout 3x More than Record Arctic Sea Ice Loss153; Media Matters [36.1] Arctic sea ice is declining much faster than scientists expected, which has important implications for the rate and impacts of climate change. But the major TV news outlets have largely ignored the record sea ice loss this summer, while

153

http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/09/27/study-tv-news-covered-paul-ryans-workout-3x-mor/190165

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SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict making ample time to cover Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan's physical fitness.

[36.2] TV News Covered Paul Ryan's Workout Over Three Times More Than Arctic Sea Ice Loss. Since June, the major TV news outlets have devoted seven full segments to Paul Ryan's physical fitness and P90X workout routine, and only one to Arctic sea ice loss. ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News and MSNBC have each covered Paul Ryan's workout routine as much or more than Arctic sea ice loss. In total, TV outlets have discussed Ryan's fitness 66 times -- more than three times as much as Arctic sea ice.

[36.3] Cable Outlets Covered Ryan's Workout Over Six Times More Than Arctic Sea Ice Loss. The three major cable news outlets mentioned Arctic sea ice only eight times in four months. Three of these mentions were in the context of how ice impacts drilling expeditions in the Arctic, and the one mention on Fox News dismissed the problem entirely. Meanwhile, the cable outlets have discussed Ryan's workouts 53 times SSD2 :: 43

SS DEFCON 2: Scarcity - Conflict

[37] Jill Fitzsimmons (15 August 2012): Study: TV Media Ignore Climate Change in Coverage of Record July Heat154; Media Matters [37.1] Scientists say that human-induced climate change made this year's record heat more likely, and project that extreme heat will become more common in the United States. But a Media Matters analysis of media coverage of record-breaking heat in July finds that major television outlets rarely made the connection between heat waves and a changing climate.

[37.2] Only 14% Of Heat Wave Stories Mentioned Climate Change. In a study of major media outlets, only 8.7% of television segments and 25.5% of print articles reported on record-breaking July heat waves in the context of climate change.

154

http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/08/15/tv-media-ignore-climate-change-in-coverage-of-r/189366

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