Florida & Metro Forecast December 2013 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2014-2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2013

ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA (UCF)

ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2014 - 2017 December 2013 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2014 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Melissa Hedtke, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Casey Moore, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 18-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F lo r i d a H i g hli g hts

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DECEMBER 2013 FLORIDA FOR ECAST 2014 -2017 • Florida’s housing market is a very, very, very fine housing market. • As of November, 43.6% of single-family transactions are cash sales. Will Mr. & Mrs. Black be able to step in when Blackstone leaves? Rising interest rates and new regulations will keep housing finance constrained. • Payroll job growth year-over-year should average 2.0% in 2014, 2.2% in 2015, 2.2% in 2016, and 1.9% in 2017. It will be late 3rd quarter of 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession highs. • Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.5% from 2014-2017. This will slow the pace of decline for the unemployment rate (U-3) in the state. Labor force growth will have averaged just 0.8% during 2010-2013 and is in part responsible for the rapid pace of the decline in the unemployment rate during that time period. • Unemployment rates have fallen from their peaks, in part due to a low labor force participation rate (59.6% in November 2013), and they will continue to decline through 2017. The pace of decline will moderate as labor force growth picks up. Despite this headwind, the unemployment rate should hit 6.0% by the end of 2017. • Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market weakness than headline unemployment (U-3), came in at an average of 14.6% for the year ending 3rd quarter 2013. Down from 15.1% last quarter. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2014-2017 are Construction (8.6%); Professional and Business Services (3.7%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.5%); Education & Health Services (2.1%); and Information (1.6%). • Housing starts jumped in 2013. Total starts will be over 110,000 in 2014, just under 148,000 in 2015, hit 167,200 in 2016, and 168,400 in 2017. Average annual growth in housing starts will be 33.4% during 2014-2017, with the largest growth in the first half of that four-year span. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 2.6% in 2014, then accelerate to 3.3% in 2015 and 2016 before easing to 3.0% in 2017. Average growth will be 3.0% during 2014-2017. • Real personal income growth for 2013 will have slowed to 1.4%. From 2014-2017 real personal income growth will accelerate and average 4.1%, with 2014 growth at 4.2% that will rise to 4.7% in 2017. • Low inventories and rising house prices have triggered a surge in home construction. Housing starts will average 33.4% growth during 2014-2017. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.2% during 2014-2017.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET Our Housing Market is a Very, Very, Very Fine Housing Market I have always loathed reading student’s papers that employ the use of stating a dictionary’s definition: “Webster’s defines “X” as …” I would say it is the equivalent of what my college fiction writing professor <Insert joke about how that class still serves me well in my current career here> used to say about writing fiction where you describe one of your characters smoking – that it is a sign that the author has run out of ideas and chooses this cliché in the absence of having the character do or say something interesting.

It is with her admonition in mind that I must elaborate a bit on the title of this section. First it is a paean to Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young and their 1970 song Our House1. Second it is a play on the multiple definitions of the word fine. The two definitions of this word that were in my mind as I wrote the heading are the versions of the word that mean of high grade as in a fine wine. The second meaning was fine as something delicate of composition as in fine crystal ware. How can Florida’s housing market be both high grade and yet delicately composed? Well an examination of the data from the housing market reveals a market where prices have risen significantly, inventories have fallen to low levels, and sales have climbed. These happenings have lifted many Floridians above water in their mortgages for the first time in years. It has helped restore billions of dollars in lost housing wealth, and it has sent a strong signal to builders that more inventory is needed as housing construction activity has surged in the state. All these are indicators of a high grade housing market, yet housing in Florida enters 2014 in a delicate condition as new regulations are set to kick in, interest rates are set to rise as the Fed has taken its first steps to tighten monetary policy, and the diminishing role of cash investors raises questions about the sturdiness of Florida’s housing recovery. Data recently released by Florida Realtors depicts a housing market that is getting hotter, if not overheating. Median sales price for single-family homes increased $19,900 in November year-over-year and now stands at $169,900. The townhome/ condominium market is also showing significant gains as the median sales price increased $19,299 year-over-year and registered $131,299 in November.

Inventories in November rose from their minimum level of 5.0 months supply back in the 2nd quarter of 2013 and are now 5.6 months, which is down from 5.7 months a year ago. Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to contract year-over-year (-46.6%), but foreclosure/REO sales are up versus November 2012 (10.7%), and traditional sales were up 10.9% over the same time period.

Not to be confused with the 1982 song of the same name by English pop group Madness. 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 43.6% in November, and for condos that figure was even higher as 69.9% of all closings were cash. Both of these markets shares of cash transactions have fallen over the past 12 months, suggestive of a diminishing role of investors in Florida’s housing market. High levels of investor participation around the state is behind these high percentages of cash transactions, with hedge funds and private equity seeking both the high yields that the current rental market provides and the expected capital gain when they sell these properties down the road at a price above the purchase price.

But the role of investors is starting to wane as evidenced by a falling share of cash transactions. This should not come as a surprise. These investors, as opposed to the flippers of the bubbleera, are driven by portfolio concerns. Portfolio decisions are a function, in part, of the relative expected return on competing assets. Real estate prices have been rising in Florida over the past few years and this ironically makes housing in Florida a less attractive investment by reducing the expected return of housing. Higher sales prices lower the return both by decreasing the rental yields and by reducing the size of expected capital gains when investors seek to sell the home. Thus rising house prices in the state make housing a less attractive investment, and we can expect to see the share of cash transactions continue to decline going forward as private equity seeks alternative investments. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Credit Availability Index declined in November after ticking up in October, and it currently stands at 110.2, down from September when it stood at 110.7. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012, and to get a sense how far the housing finance has fluctuated, if the index had been tracked in 2007 the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates it would have had a value around 800. While standards in 2007 were clearly too lax, current availability of mortgage financing is just 14% of what it was back then and are likely too tight to allow a smooth transition from an investor driven to traditional buyer driven housing recovery.

New regulations on qualified mortgages, part of the massive Dodd-Frank financial regulation law, are set to kick in early 2014. This may be a roadblock for expanded mortgage availability as some estimates suggest that 20% of existing mortgages would not have qualified under the new regulations. Uncertainty surrounding this law and its flawed rollout and implementation will continue to weigh on the financial sector in general, and specifically could further constrain the mortgage market making housing finance an increasingly difficult proposition. Figure 1, below, depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. Sales have been on an upward path from their bottom in early 2008, and while the overall trend has been upward, monthly sales have wobbled at times. The economic and demographic underpinnings of the housing market in Florida are strengthening. Job growth in Florida is outpacing the subdued labor market recovery nationally, and a cold winter thus far coupled with the aging of the Baby Boomers bodes well for

F lo r i d a S umma r y

population growth in Florida. As this foundation for a healthy housing market continues to congeal, we can expect that the upward trend in sales will continue, provided housing finance begins to normalize. If the housing finance situation remains tenuous this trend will likely flatten in the next few years, but longer run drivers are still pointing toward rising sales.

Figure 2, below, displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Housing prices did not follow the consistent upward trend that we saw in sales. Median sales prices did not bottom out until 2011, but since then prices have been on an upward climb. One thing is clear, the recent double-digit pace of price increases is unsustainable. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by nearly $20,000, up 13.3% from a year ago. This recovery in the housing market is an essential part of Florida’s continued economic recovery, and if this momentum can be at least partially sustained, it will continue to boost economic growth over the next several years. Homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth they had seen at the peak of the housing market (median prices are currently $87,900 below the 2006 peak of $257,800), but rising prices have allowed many homeowners to resurface after being trapped in mortgages that were for years underwater. Whether these repairs to consumer’s balance sheets will lead to a boost in consumer spending growth is not clear yet. My gut feeling is that while this is helpful, it will not erase the impact on the consumer psyche and our “mini-age of austerity” will continue.

The housing market in Florida has taken great strides in recovering from deep and protracted depression, but the road ahead for the Florida housing market is not without pitfalls. The state still has a long journey ahead of it before we can declare that the sector has fully recovered. If the availability of housing finance does not improve, and

if the share of cash transactions continues to fall, demand for housing will be constrained, and this will sap the strength out of the housing market’s recovery. In 2014 we will likely see the signs of this weakening begin to manifest themselves in the form of slower price appreciation and slower sales growth.

OU TLOOK FOR FLO R I DA 201 4- 201 7 FLORIDA’S ECONOMY WOULD BE FLYING HIGHER IF ECONOMIC POLICY WAS NOT SUCH A DOWNDRAFT Population growth. Check. Housing market rebounding. Check. Job growth faster than the nation. Check. Unemployment rates below national average. Check. The forecast for Florida’s economy is forecasted to grow under 3.0% in 2014? Surely I can’t be serious?

I am serious, and don’t call me Shirley.

If the national economy existed in the movie Airplane!, then the economic policy we have watched unfold over the past several years might make sense. It would all be part of one punch line laden big screen comedy. Unfortunately, the joke is on us, and a poisonous atmosphere of policy uncertainty that has choked off this recovery for much of the 54 months of its existence still persists and is still toxic with little indication that it will quickly dissipate in 2014. Granted some sources of uncertainty have been partially resolved--a deal was reached to avoid yet another government shutdown--but the looming debt ceiling is another potential source of short-run fiscal policy uncertainty. Recent economic data including a 4.1% growth rate for real GDP in the 3rd quarter

Figure 2.

Figure 1.

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes 30000

25000

Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000

Realtor Sales Total Moving Average

$250,000

20000

$200,000

15000

$150,000

10000

$100,000

5000

$50,000

Source: Florida Realtors

Median Sales Price Dollars Moving Average MHP

Source: Florida Realtors Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y

and in addition to that several other pieces of data suggest the 4th quarter may be stronger than most were anticipating.

These are all positive developments, but they do not negate the remaining sources of policy uncertainty, and we have seen in this recovery bursts of economic activity that ultimately give way to a return to subpar growth. Real GDP grew at a 4.9% in the 4th quarter of 2011 followed by a 3.7% growth rate in the 1st quarter of 2012. Two back-to-back quarters of strong growth to be sure, but over the following three quarters of 2012 the economy expanded at an average annualized quarterly growth rate of just 1.4%.

So forgive me if I do not raise a toast to the start of a new phase of robust growth in the U.S. economy that is here to stay. To a long awaited period of actual recovery that will lift all boats with its rising tide of prosperity. I’ve seen this movie before and that is not what follows this current scene of positive economic data reports. I know the villain awaits us in 2014 and the uncertainty of the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank regulatory reform, and what path the Fed will follow as it unexpectedly took its first step in its taper of bond purchases in December are a cabal conspiring to suck out the wind that currently is providing the economy with its lift. In our latest U.S. forecast2 we wrote yet again about how these policies are creating more problems than they solve, and that the disastrous and piecemeal rollout of both the Affordable Care Act and the less reported on Dodd-Frank regulatory reform law actually thicken the fog of uncertainty that envelopes the economy. So no need to rehash that discussion in the Florida forecast, but despite the positive things that we see happening in Florida’s economy it does not operate in a vacuum free of the effects of this uncertainty, and the growth we are forecasting for the state will happen in spite of this environment. If the sunshine state were free from the restraints of policy uncertainty that will remain in place in 2014, growth would undoubtedly be much more robust. We just got another change to the Affordable Care Act from the Whitehouse. What is it?

It’s a big building where the President works, but that’s not important.

GROSS STAT E P R O D U C T As discussed above, Florida’s economic recovery has been constrained by policy uncertainty. Real Gross State Product (RGSP) growth in Florida turned barely positive in 2010 as the economy finally, albeit hesitantly, emerged from recession. The 0.3% year-over-year growth in 2010 stayed lackluster in 2011 when the economy expanded by only 0.9%. To put that growth in perspective, average growth over the 9 years leading into the recession was 4.5%. The peak year for growth during that span was 2005 as the economy grew 6.2%, fueled by the unsustainable 2

http://iec.ucf.edu/file.axd?file=2013%2f12%2fus-forecast-dec-2013-s.pdf 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

growth in the housing sector.

2012 and 2013 represent a significant improvement over 2010 and 2011, but hardly qualify as robust growth. We expect the economy expanded at 2.6% in 2012 and will expand at 2.4% in 2013.

In 2013, rising consumer confidence, a housing market recovery making significant progress, and the ongoing labor market recovery helped buttress the foundation for economic growth in the state. These improvements in such essential areas of the state’s economy should finally help generate faster growth in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 when Real GSP is expected to grow 2.6%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.0% respectively. This is a faster pace of growth, but still not the hearty growth Florida has experienced in the past. If policy uncertainty were to resolve itself (unlikely at this point) one could easily envision growth at least a full percentage point higher than currently forecasted. Housing prices have made a strong upward movement from the depths of despair in the housing crisis, and this price appreciation has helped to repair the damage to Floridians’ balance sheets. It will take many more years to recover what was lost as the housing market collapsed. The increase in house prices lifted more and more mortgage holders in the state above the surface of the water for the first time in several years, providing much needed financial breathing room. Getting above water in their mortgage restores mobility, and household decisions about spending or saving out of current income will begin to slowly lean again toward consumption. It remains to be seen, as discussed above, whether or not the recovery in the housing market can maintain momentum in 2014; if it does it will be a critical source of economic growth for Florida. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach $972.0 billion in 2017. The state will cross the trillion-dollar threshold for nominal GSP in 2018. Improving demographic trends, specifically faster rates of domestic in-migration to Florida as Baby Boomers’ retirements, delayed for many by the financial and housing crises are now also stoked by what is turning out to be a cold and snowy winter in the north, get back on track. Continued international immigration to the state will also help feed the state’s population and economic growth. The elements necessary to form the compound of a stronger economy in Florida are finally coming into place. If only the policy environment were more of a catalyst and less an inhibitor to the forming of bonds between these elements, the outlook for Florida’s economy would be much rosier. Unfortunately the reverse alchemy practiced in Washington D.C. makes the likelihood of any such catalyzation improbable.

P E RS O NAL INCO M E , RETA I L SALE S , AND AUTO SALES Personal income growth in Florida lost a bit of momentum in 2013 as the sequester spending cuts, payroll tax increase, and dividend payments dropped off as many companies paid 2013 dividends at the end of 2012 to avoid rising dividend tax rates.

F lo r i d a S umma r y

Looking forward, momentum in personal income growth will return in 2014 and persist through the end of 2017. Year-overyear growth decelerated in 2012 and 2013, but personal income growth will surge in 2014 with growth of 5.6%, and will continue to expand in 2015 when it is expected to grow 5.1%, and from there it will accelerate in 2016 when growth will be 5.7% and further rise to 6.2% in 2017. Personal income growth in Florida trailed national rates of growth in 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the year we dubbed the “crossover year” named for the fact that we forecast Florida to go from trailing the national recovery to surpassing it, Florida is expected to have outpaced the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.9% higher than the national average growth through 2017. Personal income growth during 2014-2017 will average 5.6%. Personal income will reach in excess of $1 trillion in 2017, a year that will see personal income grow $59.6 billion. Real disposable income growth increased by 1.9% in 2012. In 2013, disposable income growth will average 1.1% as growth was hampered by higher payroll taxes, spending cuts, the government shutdown, an inconsistent recovery, and uncertainty. Average growth during 2014-2017 however will be a more robust 4.1%. Increasing tax burdens at the federal level will continue to be a drag on disposable income over the forecast horizon and beyond. Addressing the nation’s fiscal problems will not consist solely of spending cuts, and these problems will ultimately necessitate structural change to entitlement programs as well as higher tax burdens for more than just income earners in the highest tax bracket. There are also higher taxes embedded throughout the Affordable Care Act, and they too will also erode disposable income in future years, if they are enacted. Financial markets have fully recovered from the financial crisis, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s historically easy monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since surged back above the 16,000 level. The bond market also had a bull run, though that run will be reversing itself in the years to come as the Fed’s exit strategy plays out. As a result, financial assets held by U.S. households have values that are $24.3 trillion higher than pre-crisis levels. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for home equity wealth held by America’s households, which is still over $3.5 trillion lower than in 2005, but still has made sizable progress from the low point of the housing crisis.

The housing market in Florida has not recovered as rapidly as financial markets have, but housing prices are rising now at a double digit pace. The $3.5 trillion dollars in home equity lost nationwide could take many years to recover. In Florida, this negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2017. However, continued home price appreciation will work to ease the balance sheet burden on Florida’s consumers, provided that this price appreciation will be sustained as institutional investors continue their exit from Florida’s housing market.

The wealth effect on consumption spending is much more powerful for housing wealth than it is for financial asset wealth according to empirical analyses of these relationships. But one need not look at scientific literature to discern this fact, the anecdotal evidence of a boom stock market and a sputtering economic recovery illuminates this fact.

Florida’s persistently high unemployment and even higher underemployment also compound the effects of lost housing wealth to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market in Florida continues to improve with private sector job creation accelerating, it will boost consumer confidence and spending. The labor market, as it continues its slow healing process, will become more of a driver of consumer spending rather than a drag on consumption spending.

Retail sales in Florida grew at 5.2% in 2012. Part of that growth was due to higher gasoline prices, but it also reflected the ongoing release of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers and tourists, both domestic and international. As the labor market recovery builds momentum and home equity is restored, retail spending will begin to recover across a broad array of sectors in the economy. The average year-over-year growth rate of retail sales will be over 4.2% during 2014-2017. In 2013, year-over-year growth should end up 4.7%.

Although retail sales growth will not reach the levels seen during the height of the housing and economic boom fueled consumer purchases, Florida’s continued economic recovery will boost sales tax revenues and provide more budgetary options in Tallahassee. Hopefully this windfall will be plowed back into the state with higher levels of support for public investment in infrastructure and education. This is spending that promises an economic return for the state in future years in a way that tax cuts or rebates cannot. When the economy first stabilized and then began to recover, consumer’s replacement needs and pent-up demand drove light vehicle sales higher. This replacement demand has been reflected in national sales data as relative stability in the economy, even with the disappointingly slow pace of the recovery, has powered consumer’s light vehicle demand. Vehicle registration growth in Florida will be relatively healthy during 2014-2017, averaging around 4.1%, though it has decelerated significantly from double-digit growth in 2012 and 2013 that averaged over 12.5%. In 2017, Florida new passenger car and truck registrations will reach nearly 1.31 million, representing an increase of over 600,000 registrations from the 2009 bottom (707 thousand), but still below the peak level of registrations during the height of the housing boom of 1.45 million in 2005, despite the fact that Florida’s population in 2017 will be nearly 3 million higher than it was in 2005.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y

EMPLOY ME N T Gubernatorial Ghost Hunting3 In 2010 Governor Rick Scott was elected on a campaign platform consisting of seven steps that he pledged would lead to the creation of 700,000 jobs in seven years. Last Florida & Metro Forecast we began assessing whether or not this promise would come back to haunt his campaign for re-election. We concluded that as far as ghosts are concerned this promise was a friendly ghost a la Casper. So how is the governor’s jobs promise holding up at this point in the seven-year time frame? In January 2011, Florida payroll employment was 7,230,300 and in November 2013 payroll employment was 7,627,400 for a gain in payroll employment of 397,100 jobs. The governor has reached 56.7% of the 700,000 job target 41.7% through his seven-year plan. By the time the 2014 election comes around, we project that payroll employment will have expanded by roughly 500,000 jobs and by the end of 2015 the 700,000 jobs target will be hit, 3 years ahead of the seven year timeline. The acceleration of the progress made on the jobs pledge was helped by strong payroll gains this October and November when Florida added 53,100 jobs in just two months.

Despite the headwinds from the national economic and policy environment, Florida’s labor market continues to grow at a faster pace than the national job market. In 2012, job growth was 1.8%. In 2013, the labor market will continue its expansion with job growth roughly the same amount. Payroll job growth will reach 2.0% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015 and 2016 before easing to 1.9% in 2017. Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon by an average of 0.6 of a percentage point. The Construction sector, battered by the housing market’s collapse, suffered job losses over 5 straight years at an average annual rate of -12.9%. Job growth returned again in 2012 and will build momentum over the next couple years before hitting double digits in 2015 and 2016.

Construction job growth is expected to surge to 8.6% in 2014, 12.4% in 2015, and 11.8% in 2016, before easing back to 7.1% in 2017. Average annual job growth during 2014-2017 will be 8.6%. The double-digit pace of employment growth in 2015-2016 may be somewhat misleading given these growth rates are calculated from a dramatically depleted base of employment in the sector. In 2017, employment in this sector should be back at a number of jobs near June 2008 levels. 3

In the October 2013 Florida & Metro Forecast the calculation of Governor Scott’s progress on his campaign promise of 700,000 jobs in 7 years was mistakenly based on January 2010 payroll data, the Governor did not take office until January 2011. The calculation of progress on his jobs pledge thus should have been that the Governor is 44.8% toward the 700,000 jobs promise 38.1% through the 7 year horizon. Thank you to Jeff Ostrowski of the Palm Beach Post for bringing this to our attention. 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s second fastest growing sector on average through 2017, behind Construction. Job growth in this sector is expected to be healthy, averaging 3.7% during 2014-2017. Job gains here in the first four years of Florida’s recovery averaged 2.5%, but the next four years will see improved growth. After three years of more modest growth, job growth will accelerate and reach 4.1% in 2014 and 4.85% in 2015, before easing to 3.4% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to prerecession peak levels of employment by the beginning of 2015.

The Information sector continued to lose jobs at the start of 2013. Ongoing structural changes in the industry are a persistent disruptive force as technology and the gathering and delivery of information rapidly evolve. The production of content is becoming more widely dispersed. The traditional publishing industry will be stagnant and the print news industry continues to evolve under tremendous pressure. Whether or not this pressure ultimately creates a diamond or just fossilized remnants of what once was is still uncertain. Other sources of growth within this sector, such as software development and data processing, will help compensate for the loss of jobs in legacy industries. Mild job growth returned to the Information sector year-overyear in 2013, the first year of job growth in this sector in seven years. After 1.3% growth in 2014, job growth will further rise to 2.3% in 2016 and 2.4% in 2017, averaging growth of 1.6% during 2014-2017.

The Education and Health Services sector has consistently grown throughout the recession into the recovery and is expected to continue to grow through the end of 2017. During 2014-2017, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.1%. Employment growth in the education side of the sector will be boosted as school districts enjoy higher revenues as a result of rising housing prices and property tax based revenue that fund Florida’s K-12 school districts. Lags between the recovery in housing values and the recovery of school budgets will have passed and in the next couple years hiring will reflect this budgetary relief. Uncertainty regarding the Affordable Care Act’s ultimate impact on healthcare in the nation continues to mount. The technical failures of the healthcare exchanges are a devastating development to the rollout of the law, but may only reveal the tip of the iceberg as far as the viability of the law itself. These exchanges are a cornerstone of implementing federal healthcare reform. However, with some degree of expanded coverage as a result of the law and the aging of our already older than average population, the demand for health services in Florida should remain strong. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health and Education sector.

Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 1.4% in 2012, and in 2013 growth wavered as the domestic and global economic environments have weakened. The weakening of expansions in emerging economies and ongoing struggles in Europe will drive job growth temporarily negative in

F lo r i d a S umma r y

the manufacturing sector as exports falter and the sector contracts at -0.3%. After stumbling in 2013, we are expecting to see job growth of 2.0% in manufacturing for the full year in 2014, followed by another year of mild job growth in 2015, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 1.4%. Manufacturing is expected to continue to limp along in 2016 when job growth is expected to be just 0.3%, and the sector returns to its long-run trend of job losses in 2017 when employment contracts 0.4%.

The State & Local Government sector is still constrained by revenues streams that are improving but were slammed by the recession and housing crisis. This budgetary tightness runs from the state level down to counties and small cities. Consequently, job losses will persist in the State and Local Government sector through 2013 when growth will be -0.4%. From that point, growth will turn weakly positive and average 0.6% during 20142017. As Florida’s population and economy continue to expand, the demand for state and local government services will grow as well, and employment growth will be part of the solution to the expanding demands of a growing economy. Government will remain cautious in hiring; the bloody budgetary slashing still fresh in the memories of Mayors and County Administrators alike will keep the pace of job growth subdued through the next several years.

Federal Government employment growth in the near term may be bolstered in 2014 by frantic hiring to address the problems and complexities associated with the rollout of the Affordable Care Act. The first year of sequester spending cuts have been partially alleviated by the recent budget deal, but the government shut down and debt ceiling battle nearly tripled the pace of job losses in 2013 from 2012. We are still awaiting a long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems; ultimately cuts in federal spending will be necessitated. Job losses are expected to reappear in 2016 and beyond as the U.S. begins to come to grips with controlling budget deficits and a ballooning national debt. Federal Government employment in Florida will contract at an average rate of -0.8% during 2015-2017.

U NE MPLOY M E N T The unemployment rate in Florida remains elevated, and stands at 6.4% as of November 2013. Unemployment has fallen substantially from its peak and, after many years above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s unemployment rate is 0.6 points lower than that of the nation as a whole. On the surface this may appear to be nothing but good news for the labor market in the state. However, a deeper look at the data reveals some problems in this superficial appraisal. The biggest is that these declines in the unemployment rate have been in a large part driven by a shrinking labor force participation rate that stood at 59.6% in November 2013 and 59.8% in August 2013, both down from 60.3% in May. The national labor force participation rate stood at 63.0% in November 2013, the lowest since April 1978. Lower headline (U-3) unemployment rates can be deceiving if given just a cursory glance, particularly if you don’t understand

the underlying factors that are driving the decline.

Heavy-duty economic growth is necessary to quickly bring down the unemployment rate for the right reason: people who are out of work finding jobs. We have not experienced the type of growth in Florida’s economy that is capable of little more than gradually reducing the unemployment rate. However the shrinking labor force participation rate is doing much of the heavy lifting of bringing down this headline unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in Florida stood at 6.4% in November 2013, a 5.0 point decline from the peak level of unemployment in 2010. We are forecasting stronger economic growth in Florida over the forecast horizon. The labor market will need stronger growth to continue to drive meaningful declines in the rate of unemployment that to date have been by and large driven by a shrinking labor force participation rate. This faster economic growth, though, will be faced with a headwind of a rising labor force participation rate that will make progress in reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging task. We expect the labor force to grow faster during 2014-2017, and this will have a net result of far more modest declines in unemployment rates in Florida during these years. The labor force in Florida is expected to grow an average of 1.5% during 2014-2017. That compares to an average growth rate of just 0.8% during the four years prior. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to continue a very gradual, drawn-out decline that will push it down to 6.0% by the end of 2017.

This problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers—those who are working part-time but not by their choice, and those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months— remains significant. When adding these workers to the top-level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and it averaged 14.6% for 4Q 2012 through 3Q 2013 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While U-6 is down from its previous reading of 15.1%, this is a grimmer picture of the state of the labor market in Florida than reflected in the current headline unemployment rate of 6.4%. Underemployment nationally and in the state may bear watching in the years to come. There have been indications that companies may rely more upon part-time workers to fill their labor needs to avoid the costs of providing healthcare or the penalties for not doing so for full-time employees. This assumes that the already delayed employer mandate actually is implemented on the ever adjusting timeline for the implementation of the Affordable Care Act.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2008

2009

2010

2011

2014

2015

2016

2017

Personal Income (Bil. $)

736.2

696.5

725.4

Personal Income and GSP 761.3 792.3 816.4 861.9

905.6

956.8

1016.4

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

0.6 3.6

-5.4 -2.8

4.2 2.9

5.0 6.1

4.1 4.2

3.1 2.8

5.6 4.5

5.1 4.5

5.7 4.8

6.2 4.9

678.8

642.6

658.4

674.8

689.5

702.7

732.5

758.2

788.5

825.4

-2.4 0.6

-5.3 -2.7

2.5 1.2

2.5 3.6

2.2 2.3

1.9 1.7

4.2 3.2

3.5 3.0

4.0 3.2

4.7 3.4

614.7

593.2

608.1

615.9

627.9

634.5

660.3

683.6

711.8

745.8

-0.9

-3.5

2.5

1.3

1.9

1.1

4.1

3.5

4.1

4.8

2.4

-2.8

1.8

1.3

1.5

0.6

3.6

3.4

2.9

748.1 -1.7 689.4 -3.5

721.2 -3.6 648.6 -5.9

728.0 0.9 650.3 0.3

746.4 2.5 656.3 0.9

777.2 4.1 673.2 2.6

805.5 3.6 689.4 2.4

839.8 4.3 707.1 2.6

882.3 5.1 730.1 3.3

927.8 5.2 754.2 3.3

972.0 4.8 776.5 3.0

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -5.6 -0.1 2.2 2.9 2.0 2.7 1.8 1.5 -1.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 2.1 1.5 1.3 10.4 11.3 10.3 8.6 7.1 6.6 6.3 6.1

1.3 1.2 6.0

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

-2.3 0.1 6.3

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

2012

2013

8.1

7.5

7.0

6.6

6.3

6.1

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade

-0.6

-4.4

-0.7

1.2

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.3

-3.5 -7.8 -17.2 -7.0 -6.2

-6.3 -11.5 -23.1 -12.7 -10.0

-0.8 -0.5 -11.3 -4.5 -3.6

1.1 3.9 -4.3 1.1 0.8

1.8 -0.1 1.8 1.4 1.3

1.8 1.3 4.4 -0.3 -0.9

2.0 -0.4 8.6 2.0 0.2

2.2 -0.9 12.4 1.4 -0.5

2.2 -1.1 11.8 0.3 -0.8

1.9 -0.9 7.1 -0.4 -0.5

-7.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9

-14.1 -6.6 -7.9 -6.6

-4.9 -2.0 -2.8 0.2

1.3 3.7 -0.3 2.3

1.5 2.1 1.8 2.5

0.0 1.4 1.1 3.8

2.9 2.3 1.3 1.7

2.4 4.1 2.6 0.2

0.9 3.9 2.8 0.5

-0.3 3.5 2.7 0.3

Financial Activities

-4.6

-7.3

-1.9

1.8

2.3

1.1

0.5

0.1

0.2

-0.1

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

-6.4 2.1 -1.4 -3.4 1.3

-8.2 1.2 -4.5 -8.5 2.3

1.3 1.9 0.5 -4.6 7.2

3.0 1.9 2.8 -1.0 -5.4

3.0 1.8 4.2 -1.8 -0.9

2.6 1.6 2.8 1.0 -2.6

4.1 1.4 1.7 1.3 2.6

4.5 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0

3.4 2.8 1.0 2.3 -1.6

2.9 2.3 1.5 2.4 -0.8

0.2

-1.5

-1.2

-1.1

-1.5

-0.4

0.0

0.5

0.7

1.0

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Population and Migration 18,540.8 18,682.3 18,879.5 19,111.5 19,347.6 19,592.7 19,855.5 20,129.0 20,412.1 20,705.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

84.2 -29.1

107.7 43.8

169.2 71.9

198.6 20.8

204.6 3.0

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

61.5

33.6

38.2

41.5

59.4

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

40.9 20.6

26.8 6.9

31.8 6.3

32.0 9.6

42.8 16.5

4.3

-0.2

1.2

3.1

214.6 4.9

224.9 4.9

229.3 1.9

233.3 1.7

238.1 2.1

84.4

110.3

147.7

167.2

168.4

56.2 28.3

77.6 32.7

103.2 44.5

115.6 51.6

113.8 54.6

Consumer Prices 2.0 1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

Housing

(%Ch Year ago)

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

832.6 2.0 1.9 714.0

846.5 5.8 4.4 723.6

856.6 5.6 4.4 729.2

867.2 5.5 4.6 735.5

877.4 5.4 4.6 741.7

890.6 5.2 4.5 750.0

900.3 5.1 4.5 755.4

910.3 5.0 4.5 760.8

921.1 5.0 4.5 766.7

936.2 5.1 4.6 775.9

949.3 5.4 4.7 783.7

963.2 5.8 4.9 792.4

978.4 6.2 5.0 801.9

994.5 1009.4 6.2 6.3 4.9 5.0 812.0 821.2

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

1.1 1.0 644.2 0.2 0.3

4.8 3.4 652.5 4.6 3.6

4.1 3.0 657.4 3.9 3.6

4.2 3.2 662.8 4.0 3.6

3.9 3.1 668.6 3.8 3.6

3.6 3.0 675.6 3.6 3.5

3.6 3.0 680.8 3.5 3.6

3.4 2.9 686.2 3.5 3.6

3.4 2.9 691.7 3.5 3.6

3.5 2.9 699.9 3.6 3.6

3.8 3.1 707.1 3.9 3.4

4.2 3.2 715.6 4.3 3.3

4.6 3.4 724.7 4.8 3.3

4.6 3.4 732.6 4.7 2.9

4.8 3.4 741.5 4.9 3.0

GSP (Bil. $)

817.4

825.9

835.1

844.1

854.1

865.6

876.6

888.1

899.0

910.6

921.9

933.4

945.3

955.8

966.2

(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

4.0 695.9 2.6

4.2 700.2 2.7

4.2 704.5 2.5

4.1 709.0 2.4

4.5 714.6 2.7

4.8 720.6 2.9

5.0 727.0 3.2

5.2 733.4 3.4

5.3 739.5 3.5

5.2 745.1 3.4

5.2 751.0 3.3

5.1 757.1 3.2

5.1 763.6 3.3

5.0 768.4 3.1

4.8 773.6 3.0

1.0 -0.4

2.2 1.1

2.4 1.8

2.8 2.4

3.3 3.1

2.0 1.7

1.7 1.4

1.8 1.5

1.8 1.4

1.7 1.4

1.6 1.3

1.5 1.2

1.4 1.2

1.3 1.2

6.7 7.2

6.7 7.1

6.6 7.0

6.5 6.9

6.5 6.8

6.4 6.7

6.3 6.6

6.3 6.5

6.2 6.4

6.1 6.3

6.1 6.2

6.0 6.2

6.0 6.1

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida

1.7 2.0

1.6 2.0

1.5 2.0

1.5 2.1

1.5 2.2

1.6 2.3

1.6 2.2

1.5 2.1

1.4 2.0

Mining Construction Manufacturing

1.7 6.3 -0.1

0.5 8.5 0.5

0.0 8.2 2.7

-0.7 8.5 2.5

-1.3 9.2 2.4

-1.3 10.7 2.3

-0.8 12.1 1.5

-0.7 13.2 0.9

-0.7 13.6 0.9

-0.9 13.3 0.7

-1.2 12.5 0.5

-1.1 11.0 0.2

-1.2 10.4 -0.1

-1.1 9.1 -0.2

-1.0 7.9 -0.3

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

-1.3 0.6

-1.1 1.2

1.6 3.2

0.2 3.6

0.0 3.6

-0.3 3.7

-0.5 2.6

-0.7 1.6

-0.6 1.7

-0.7 1.4

-0.7 1.1

-0.8 0.7

-0.9 0.3

-0.8 0.0

-0.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

0.8 0.6 4.4 1.5

0.6 0.6 3.3 1.4

2.7 1.4 2.0 0.3

2.7 1.4 1.0 0.0

3.2 1.7 0.4 0.2

4.1 2.3 0.0 0.1

4.1 2.5 0.1 0.3

4.2 2.6 0.3 0.1

4.2 2.8 0.5 -0.1

3.9 2.7 0.6 0.0

4.0 2.8 0.6 0.1

4.0 2.8 0.5 0.2

3.8 2.7 0.2 0.3

3.8 2.6 0.2 0.2

3.6 2.7 0.3 0.0

Prof. and Business Services

3.6

4.1

4.2

4.0

4.4

4.6

4.5

3.6

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.2

1.2 2.1 2.8 -4.3 0.0

1.1 1.4 3.1 -0.4 -0.1

1.2 1.7 1.3 2.1 -0.2

1.6 2.0 0.4 4.1 0.1

1.6 1.8 0.6 4.6 0.2

1.7 1.7 -0.9 1.6 0.4

1.8 1.5 -0.4 0.1 0.5

2.1 1.2 1.4 -1.0 0.7

2.3 1.0 1.4 -0.6 0.6

2.5 0.8 2.5 -1.8 0.7

2.8 0.9 2.6 -1.7 0.7

2.9 1.1 1.8 -1.5 0.7

3.0 1.2 2.2 -1.4 0.8

2.6 1.4 2.5 -0.8 0.9

2.3 1.5 2.6 -0.8 0.9

19,689.2

19,755.1

19,821.7

19,888.8

19,956.5

1.3 55.7

1.3 55.8

1.3 56.1

1.4 56.4

7.8

7.2

7.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

87.9 59.5

97.5 66.7

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

28.4

1.5

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

-0.6

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

20,024.9

20,093.9

20,233.7

20,304.4

20,375.7

20,447.7

20,520.4

20,593.8

20,667.9

1.4 56.6

1.4 56.9

1.4 57.2

20,163.6

1.4 57.5

1.4 57.6

1.4 57.8

1.4 58.2

1.4 58.5

1.4 58.8

1.4 59.2

1.4 59.5

3.7

1.5

2.0

1.9

1.5

1.7

2.1

2.3

106.3 75.6

114.1 80.9

123.3 87.1

133.4 92.3

143.4 100.9

159.6 110.9

163.5 112.9

165.9 114.7

168.8 116.9

170.7 117.8

171.1 116.3

168.2 113.9

30.8

30.7

33.2

36.2

41.1

42.5

48.7

50.6

51.2

51.8

53.0

54.7

54.4

1.4

2.0

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.7

Housing 154.6 108.9 45.6

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago)

1.7

1.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,593.5 7,630.4 7,667.2 7,701.2 7,742.8 7,787.5 7,829.0 7,874.2 7,921.2 7,959.3 8,000.7 8,044.2 8,091.8 8,124.5 8,157.9

Manufacturing

317.4

318.5

321.5

324.3

325.0

326.0

326.5

327.2

328.0

328.3

328.0

327.9

327.7

327.5

327.1

Durable Goods

210.6

211.6

214.5

217.4

218.3

219.4

220.0

221.0

221.9

222.4

222.3

222.5

222.6

222.4

222.0

Wood Products

10.7

10.8

11.6

12.2

12.8

13.5

14.1

14.7

15.1

15.5

15.7

15.8

15.7

15.6

Computer & Electronics

41.5

41.9

41.8

41.6

41.2

40.8

40.4

40.1

39.8

39.6

39.5

39.4

39.3

Transportation Equipment

35.6

35.7

36.0

36.3

36.1

36.0

35.8

35.7

35.6

106.7

106.9

107.0

106.7

106.6

106.4

106.3

106.1

105.9

105.7

105.4

105.1

29.6

29.8

29.9

29.8

29.7

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7,276.2 7,311.8 7,345.7 7,376.8 7,417.8 7,461.5 7,502.6 7,547.0 7,593.2 7,631.0 7,672.7 7,716.3 7,764.1 7,797.1 7,830.8 5.7

5.7

5.6

5.5

Construction

368.3

374.1

381.6

391.2

402.2

414.0

427.6

442.8

456.7

469.2

480.9

491.5

504.2

511.8

518.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

245.0

246.1

248.2

250.3

253.0

256.1

258.4

260.7

263.6

266.1

268.8

271.2

273.6

276.2

278.5

Wholesale Trade

340.1

342.1

344.2

346.1

348.0

349.9

351.1

352.3

353.8

355.0

356.1

357.1

358.2

358.9

359.5

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1,032.0 1,034.6 1,034.1 1,034.2 1,035.8 1,034.6 1,034.7 1,037.2 1,040.5 1,040.4 1,041.1 1,042.0 1,042.7 1,042.6 1,044.4 135.6

136.8

136.5

135.9

136.4

135.5

136.1

137.9

138.4

138.8

139.6

140.4

141.4

142.4

143.2

1,110.8 1,121.7 1,135.0 1,143.9 1,155.6 1,171.4 1,184.9 1,196.7 1,207.3 1,214.1 1,222.8 1,236.0 1,248.2 1,256.1 1,261.9

Admin. & Support

558.2

565.2

574.2

580.0

588.7

602.1

612.4

621.1

628.1

633.2

640.2

651.5

660.9

667.9

671.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

468.0

471.4

475.3

477.9

480.9

483.1

486.0

488.8

492.4

493.8

495.5

497.2

499.7

500.4

502.3

84.6

85.2

85.6

85.9

86.1

86.3

86.5

86.8

86.9

87.1

87.2

87.4

87.6

87.8

88.0

Financial Activities

505.7

505.9

504.7

505.8

506.5

506.6

506.3

506.1

506.8

506.9

507.0

507.6

507.7

506.8

Real Estate & Rent

170.6

170.7

171.7

173.0

174.3

175.0

175.5

176.2

177.2

178.2

178.8

179.7

180.7

181.5

182.1

Fin. & Insurance

335.1

335.2

333.0

332.9

332.2

331.6

330.7

329.8

328.9

328.6

328.0

327.3

327.0

326.2

324.8

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

1,132.7 1,137.6 1,142.6 1,145.5 1,150.4 1,157.1 1,163.5 1,169.3 1,176.7 1,186.3 1,196.5 1,203.7 1,212.4 1,216.8 1,224.6

Education Services

143.2

143.6

Health Services

989.5

993.9 1,000.1 1,003.6 1,009.2 1,016.4 1,023.2 1,029.2 1,036.8 1,046.4 1,056.8 1,064.3 1,073.2 1,077.7 1,085.5

Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

142.6

141.9

141.2

140.7

140.4

140.1

140.0

139.9

139.7

139.4

139.2

139.1

139.0

1,031.7 1,036.5 1,040.6 1,044.7 1,050.0 1,053.9 1,055.7 1,057.5 1,060.8 1,062.3 1,064.9 1,068.9 1,073.4 1,077.4 1,080.7 317.3

317.8

318.1

318.3

317.9

318.1

318.3

318.6

318.9

319.7

320.4

321.1

321.9

323.0

324.2

1,068.8 1,072.3 1,074.1 1,075.3 1,076.5 1,078.1 1,079.0 1,080.2 1,081.4 1,082.1 1,083.6 1,085.0 1,086.8 1,089.2 1,091.5

Federal Gov't.

127.1

131.3

132.8

133.8

132.9

133.4

132.9

132.5

132.0

131.0

130.7

130.4

130.1

130.0

129.6

State & Local Gov't

941.7

941.0

941.3

941.6

943.6

944.7

946.1

947.7

949.4

951.1

952.9

954.6

956.7

959.2

961.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 4. Employment Annual

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,727.2

7,243.2

7,186.1

7,266.7

7,401.1

7,535.7

7,685.4

7,853.0

8,024.0

8173

Manufacturing

371.1

323.9

309.0

312.5

317.0

316.0

322.4

326.9

328.0

326.8

Durable Goods

249.4

214.4

203.5

206.2

209.3

215.5

220.6

222.5

221.7

Wood Products

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.6

8.8

10.4

11.8

14.3

15.7

15.5

Computer & Electronics

48.0

44.7

43.0

42.6

41.8

41.7

41.0

39.7

39.3

Transportation Equipment

42.5

34.9

33.8

34.2

35.3

35.4

36.1

35.8

35.5

121.7

109.5

105.5

106.3

107.7

106.7

106.9

106.4

105.5

105.0

29.6

27.9

27.5

28.7

29.3

29.5

29.8

29.9

29.8

29.7

7,356.1

6,919.3

6,877.1

6,954.1

7,084.1

7,219.7

7,363.0

7,526.1

7,696.0

7,846.2

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.5

Construction

515.9

396.6

350.7

335.6

341.6

356.5

387.3

435.3

486.4

520.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

248.2

231.8

227.1

235.4

240.4

243.7

249.4

259.7

269.9

279.5

Wholesale Trade

345.6

317.9

307.4

312.6

325.6

336.4

345.1

351.8

356.6

360.3

Retail Trade

999.3

933.6

935.4

956.8

980.6

1,017.8

1,034.7

1,036.7

1,041.5

1,044.5

Information

157.2

143.8

137.1

135.7

133.3

134.6

136.4

137.0

140.1

143.4

1,082.5

993.2

1,006.0

1,036.0

1,067.3

1,094.6

1,139.1

1,190.1

1,230.3

1,265.8

Admin. & Support

543.4

481.9

494.5

516.7

535.1

547.9

577.0

615.9

646.4

675.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

456.3

431.4

432.4

437.9

448.4

462.2

476.3

487.6

496.5

502.8

82.9

79.9

79.0

81.4

83.8

84.5

85.7

86.6

87.3

88.1

Financial Activities

526.0

487.3

478.0

486.6

497.7

503.3

505.7

506.3

507.1

506.5

Real Estate & Rent

169.8

154.9

150.3

153.1

160.4

168.3

172.4

176.0

179.4

182.3

Fin. & Insurance

356.1

332.4

327.7

333.5

337.3

335.0

333.3

330.3

327.7

324.2

1,038.0

1,050.7

1,070.6

1,091.1

1,110.3

1,128.5

1,144.0

1,166.7

1,199.7

1,227.3

Education Services

122.7

127.7

134.6

136.7

140.8

144.0

142.3

140.3

139.5

138.9

Health Services

915.3

923.1

936.0

954.4

969.4

984.6

1,001.7

1,026.4

1,060.2

1,088.3

Leisure & Hospitality

970.5

926.8

931.4

957.3

997.4

1,025.4

1,043.0

1,057.0

1,067.4

1,083.0

Other Services

335.4

312.6

309.4

308.5

314.1

317.0

318.0

318.5

320.8

324.9

1,126.8

1,115.0

1,112.8

1,093.5

1,078.0

1,071.3

1,074.5

1,079.7

1,084.4

1,092.8

Federal Gov't.

129.7

132.7

142.3

134.0

132.7

129.3

132.7

130.6

129.5

State & Local Gov't

997.1

982.3

970.5

959.5

945.3

942.0

941.9

947.0

953.8

963.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

832.6

846.5

856.6

867.2

877.4

890.6

900.3

910.3

921.1

936.2

949.3

963.2

978.4

994.5 1009.4

Wages & Salaries

364.8

369.0

373.9

378.6

383.4

388.7

393.8

399.1

404.5

409.9

415.2

420.5

426.2

431.6

436.8

Other Labor Income

81.6

82.6

83.5

84.3

85.4

86.3

87.7

89.2

90.3

91.2

92.6

94.1

95.3

96.5

97.9

Nonfarm

46.9

47.5

48.3

48.8

49.5

50.1

51.1

51.7

52.4

53.3

54.2

54.7

55.3

55.8

56.6

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.3

Property Income

229.8

233.8

237.0

241.4

245.0

248.1

249.9

251.9

254.7

259.0

263.9

269.9

276.8

283.7

290.4

Transfer Payments

Farm

164.7

170.4

171.6

172.5

173.3

178.0

179.2

180.4

182.0

187.7

188.8

190.1

191.6

195.3

196.9

Social Insurance

58.8

60.2

61.1

61.9

62.6

64.1

65.0

65.7

66.6

68.6

69.3

70.0

70.9

72.3

73.1

Personal Income

714.0

723.6

729.2

735.5

741.7

750.0

755.4

760.8

766.7

775.9

783.7

792.4

801.9

812.0

821.2

Wages & Salaries

Billions 2005 $

312.9

315.4

318.3

321.1

324.1

327.3

330.4

333.6

336.7

339.7

342.8

345.9

349.4

352.4

355.3

Other Labor Income

70.0

70.6

71.1

71.5

72.2

72.6

73.6

74.5

75.2

75.6

76.4

77.4

78.1

78.8

79.7

Nonfarm

40.2

40.6

41.2

41.4

41.8

42.2

42.8

43.2

43.6

44.1

44.7

45.0

45.3

45.6

46.0

Farm

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

Property Income

197.1

199.8

201.7

204.8

207.1

208.9

209.7

210.5

212.0

214.6

217.9

222.0

226.9

231.6

236.2

Transfer Payments

141.3

145.7

146.1

146.3

146.5

149.9

150.4

150.8

151.5

155.5

155.8

156.4

157.1

159.4

160.2

50.4

51.5

52.0

52.5

52.9

54.0

54.6

54.9

55.4

56.8

57.2

57.6

58.1

59.1

59.5

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1148.4

1156.5

1165.4

1177.5 1190.81 1204.38 1217.91 1231.23 1252.38 1268.26 1278.69 1284.38 1296.68 1298.75 1305.92

Retail Sales (Billions $)

289.1

290.4

294.1

297.2

300.0

302.9

306.0

309.6

313.0

316.9

320.3

323.9

327.7

330.6

334.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

247.9

248.2

250.3

252.1

253.6

255.1

256.7

258.7

260.6

262.7

264.4

266.5

268.6

269.9

271.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

736.2

696.5

725.4

761.3

792.3

816.4

861.9

905.6

956.8

1016.4

Wages & Salaries

338.9

320.8

322.9

332.7

346.6

359.4

376.2

396.5

418.0

439.4

Other Labor Income

76.7

73.2

76.4

75.1

77.9

80.8

83.9

88.3

93.3

98.6

Nonfarm

39.0

36.8

38.3

40.8

43.6

46.3

48.5

51.3

54.3

56.7

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

Property Income

207.6

175.1

187.2

204.1

213.6

221.6

239.3

251.1

267.4

293.5

Transfer Payments

123.0

138.0

148.6

152.3

156.2

162.7

172.0

179.9

189.6

197.7

51.7

50.0

50.7

46.8

48.9

57.7

61.5

65.4

69.7

73.4

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

678.8

642.6

658.4

674.8

689.5

702.7

732.5

758.2

788.5

825.4

Wages & Salaries

312.5

296.0

293.1

294.9

301.6

309.4

319.7

332.0

344.4

356.8

Other Labor Income

70.7

67.6

69.3

66.6

67.8

69.5

71.3

74.0

76.9

80.1

Nonfarm

36.0

34.0

34.7

36.1

37.9

39.8

41.3

43.0

44.8

46.0

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

Property Income

191.5

161.6

169.9

180.9

185.9

190.7

203.4

210.3

220.3

238.3

Transfer Payments

113.4

127.4

134.8

135.0

135.9

140.0

146.1

150.6

156.2

160.6

47.7

46.2

46.0

41.5

42.5

49.7

52.2

54.7

57.4

59.6

950.73

707.00

810.51

Retail Sales (Billions $)

252.1

227.2

243.0

258.4

271.8

284.6

295.4

307.9

322.2

336.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

232.5

209.6

220.5

229.0

236.6

244.9

251.0

257.8

265.5

272.8

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

879.82 1006.89 1112.02 1172.55 1226.47 1282.00 1306.51

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Gross State Product

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

9% 8%

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

6% 5% 4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Gross State Product

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Employment 8400.0 8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Population (Thousands)

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

5% 0% -5% -10%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1700.0 1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

F lo r i d a N ews S umma r ies Florida in top 25 for business climate • Florida ranked no. 13 business climate in the nation in Site Selection’s 2013 Top 25 State Business Climate study. Executives surveyed ranked Florida at #5. The survey was based on many categories, including tax burden, business growth activity, and a survey of corporate site selectors. • Florida ranked #9 in new plants for 2013, #19 in mature firm tax index, #21 in competitiveness, and #36 in new firm tax index. Source: The Orlando Business Journal, November 5, 2013 Florida No. 3 for bank branch losses • SNL Financial produced a study that stated Florida is one of the leading states for bank branch closures. • During the year ending September 30, the state had a net loss of 79 branches. Florida currently has 5,635 branches. Nationwide, banks closed 1,343 branches during the same time period. Source: The Jacksonville Business Journal, November 11, 2013 Weak Orange Crop Forecast Juices OJ Prices • Florida’s citrus groves are being attacked by a bacterial disease that is threatening to reduce the crop to the lowest it has ever been in 25 years. • OJ Futures jumped more than 7% on November 8, which will trickle all the way down to the shelf price for orange juice. Futures ended that week at an eight-week high. • Citrus greening and freezing temperatures are the biggest threat to this year’s orange juice crop. Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2013 Health premiums vary by county • A USA TODAY/Gannett analysis of federal data showed that Florida’s citizens will be among the states with the widest price disparity in terms of insurance plans purchased on the federal HealthCare.gov website. • Some insurers will not offer plans in every county, which is why the prices differ. About 25% of Florida residents younger than 65 are uninsured.

• Lack of competition in rural areas may increase prices for health insurance plans. Florida Blue operates in all 67 counties, and competes with eleven other insurers. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 27, 2013 Amendment looks to limit sprawl, protect water and wildlife • Voters may be voting on an amendment to apportion funds from real estate transactions toward buying and saving land critical to conserving water and wildlife health. • Florida’s Water and land Legacy looks to allocate this existing tax into a fund specifically for this cause, and keep it out of the General Revenue Fund. By 2015, the Legacy estimates it will have $648 million, and in 2034, it will have $1.268 billion. • 357,027 voters have already signed, but the petition still needs 326,122 by February 1. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, December 2, 2013 Orlando Health, MD Anderson end 23-year cancer agreement • University of Florida will be the new ally of Orlando Health. Orlando Health’s organization combined with University of Florida’s research and treatment capability will allow the team to treat the overwhelming amount of Floridians with cancer. • Patients will be treated by the same staff and doctors that practiced before the merger. Dr. Mark Roh will remain as president of this new partnership. • Cancer is the leading cause of death in Florida, surpassing heart disease. Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, December 16, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

METROS

Decembe r 2 013

FLORIDA FORECAST

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 5.2 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $32,300. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at $41,100. Average annual wage growth is expected to be moderate at 3.3 percent. Population growth will average 1.1 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 11,762.18 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of the 2010 census (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 251,807 in April of 2013 (Federal Reserve Economic Data). • An unemployment rate of 7.0% not seasonally adjusted for the entire metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 17,763 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Volusia County Schools – 8,917 • Halifax Medical Center – 4,037 • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 3,723 • Volusia County Government – 3,314 • Publix – 2,841 • Walmart – 2,769 • State of Florida – 2,178 • Daytona State College – 1,702 • U.S. Government – 1,274 • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,125 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.5 percent each year. Unemployment will average 7.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 8.7 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.3 percent annually. The Information sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. The Financial sector is the only sector expected to experience a decline at -0.3 percent each.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Business Snapshot

• Florida Hospital Fish Memorial reopened a “progressive care unit” on December 2. It will treat patients that are less critical than ICU patients, but still need more attention than regular nursing floors. • Fish Memorial will also add telemetry monitoring units to take care of patients. The unit will provide more privacy to patients, as well as alleviate some of the resources of the emergency department.

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, December 15, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Beachside Howard Johnson sold

• The 46-room Howard Johnson hotel was sold for $1.8 million to Topaz Eagles LLC, a Port Orange real estate investor. The company also owns the Quality Inn on Ormond Beach.

• The buyer says he is moving onto storage facilities now, but will continue to operate the Quality Inn and the Howard Johnson as hotels.

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, December 16, 2013 Northern manufacturer opens branch in Ormond Beach • An injection molding manufacturing company, Modern Mold and Tool, Inc., opened in the Hull Pointe Industrial Park. • The facility’s operations include “design, engineering, plastics mold manufacturing, and injection molding for the medical, electronics, aerospace, security and automotive industries.” • It employs four workers in Ormond, and 70 overall.

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, December 16, 2013 Ailing Ecosystem

• An unprecedented number of Indian River Lagoon wildlife has died over the past year. 60% (47,000 acres) of sea grass has vanished and record algae blooms have occurred. • Experts believe the biggest threats to this lagoon are from the construction and pollution that has been occurring for decades. The total annual economic impact of the Indian River lagoon has been estimated at $3.7 billion according to the St. Johns River Management District. The Lagoon is home to commercial and recreational fishing, tourism, research and education.

• The District is committing another $3.7 million over the next three years to investigate the ecosystem. Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, Dec. 18, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Investor buys Orange City bank building, property • ISBRT Acquisitions LLC, a Miami Beach company, bought property originally leased to Wells Fargo for $3.58 million. The 5,129-square-foot building sits on 1.2 acres and was constructed in 2009.

• The building was sold from Orange City Investors LLC, a Winter Park company. Wells Fargo will continue functioning in the building. Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, December 18, 2013

Deltona â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y tona B each â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r mon d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

12500.0 12000.0

8.0%

11500.0

6.0%

11000.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

10500.0

4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

10000.0 9500.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

0.8

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Deltona Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.6 -5.6 5.6 10.0

16.1 3.3 5.7 10.4

16.7 3.8 5.7 11.0

17.2 3.2 5.8 11.4

17.7 2.5 6.0 11.6

18.5 5.0 6.3 12.3

19.4 4.6 6.6 12.8

20.4 5.3 6.9 13.5

21.7 6.0 7.3 14.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 -5.5

14.6 1.6

14.8 1.4

15.0 1.4

15.2 1.3

15.8 3.6

16.2 3.0

16.8 3.7

17.6 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.4 29.0

32.5 29.5

33.7 29.9

34.7 30.2

35.2 30.3

36.7 31.1

38.0 31.8

39.5 32.5

41.3 33.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 -0.7

36.5 2.5

36.7 0.6

37.3 1.6

38.0 1.7

39.0 2.8

40.3 3.4

41.7 3.5

43.2 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

156.5 -5.8

153.7 -1.8

154.3 0.4

155.5 0.8

157.7 1.5

159.3 1.0

162.0 1.7

165.1 1.9

167.7 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -14.0

7.5 -3.9

8.1 8.5

8.3 2.5

8.6 2.9

8.8 2.2

8.9 1.5

9.0 0.6

8.9 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

148.7 -5.3

146.2 -1.7

146.1 -0.1

147.1 0.7

149.2 1.4

150.5 0.9

153.1 1.7

156.1 2.0

158.8 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 -22.0

7.9 -11.6

7.4 -6.3

7.6 2.4

7.8 2.5

8.2 5.6

9.1 11.4

10.2 11.4

10.8 6.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 -7.3

30.0 -0.5

30.0 0.1

30.5 1.6

31.4 3.0

31.6 0.5

31.8 0.6

32.2 1.2

32.5 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.9 23.1 2.1

4.7 23.3 1.9

4.8 23.4 1.8

4.7 23.9 1.9

4.6 24.8 2.0

4.7 24.8 2.1

4.9 24.9 2.2

5.1 24.8 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -11.9

2.0 -10.9

2.0 -1.6

2.0 -1.0

2.0 0.4

2.0 1.1

2.0 0.8

2.1 2.8

2.1 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 -7.8

7.1 0.7

7.3 2.2

7.6 3.8

7.7 0.8

7.6 -0.8

7.6 0.1

7.6 -0.1

7.6 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.0 0.2

15.4 -3.3

15.7 1.7

16.1 2.6

16.2 0.9

16.6 2.2

17.4 4.7

18.0 3.5

18.5 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.5 -1.2

31.6 0.4

32.1 1.6

32.2 0.3

32.6 1.2

32.9 1.0

33.4 1.3

34.1 2.1

34.7 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -5.7

21.5 -0.4

22.1 2.9

22.7 2.7

23.6 4.0

24.0 1.3

24.1 0.5

24.1 0.2

24.3 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 3.1

8.1 -3.9

7.7 -5.9

7.6 -1.1

7.6 -0.2

7.5 -0.2

7.6 0.2

7.6 0.8

7.7 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 2.3

1.5 5.8

1.3 -15.9

1.1 -11.3

1.1 -2.6

1.1 3.5

1.1 0.2

1.1 -1.5

1.1 -0.7

21.3 -5.0

20.9 -1.7

20.5 -2.0

19.7 -3.9

19.2 -2.7

19.0 -1.2

19.0 0.5

19.2 0.7

19.4 1.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

494.9 -0.4

494.6 -0.1

494.8 0.0

497.4 0.5

501.2 0.8

505.9 0.9

510.8 1.0

517.3 1.3

523.8 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

252.6 -0.7

252.1 -0.2

252.1 0.0

252.7 0.2

252.1 -0.2

256.9 1.9

260.0 1.2

262.3 0.9

264.4 0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.6

11.5

10.5

8.8

7.2

7.0

7.1

7.0

662.2 602.2 60.0

719.3 659.1 60.0

1025.4 504.9 521.0

766.0 748.8 17.0

1782.1 1284.7 497.0

3589.0 2317.1 1272.0

4088.4 2983.4 1105.0

4355.7 3281.4 1074.0

4339.2 3214.0 1125.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.3 5 6.1 12.1

18.4 4.9 6.2 12.2

18.6 5.1 6.3 12.3

18.8 4.9 6.4 12.5

19.1 4.6 6.4 12.7

19.3 4.6 6.5 12.8

19.5 4.5 6.6 12.9

19.7 4.6 6.7 13

20 4.7 6.8 13.2

20.3 5.1 6.9 13.4

20.6 5.5 7 13.6

20.9 6 7.1 13.8

21.2 6 7.2 14.1

21.5 6.1 7.2 14.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.6 4

15.7 3.4

15.8 3.8

15.9 3.4

16.1 3.1

16.2 3.1

16.3 3

16.4 3

16.6 3.1

16.7 3.4

16.9 3.9

17.1 4.3

17.3 4.5

17.5 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.2 31

36.5 31.1

36.8 31.2

37.1 31.4

37.5 31.6

37.8 31.7

38.1 31.8

38.4 32

38.9 32.2

39.3 32.4

39.7 32.6

40.1 32.9

40.7 33.2

41.1 33.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.5 2

38.9 2.5

39.2 3.3

39.5 3.2

39.8 3.4

40.2 3.4

40.5 3.3

40.8 3.4

41.2 3.5

41.5 3.5

41.9 3.5

42.2 3.5

42.6 3.4

43 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

158.4 0.1

159 0.6

159.5 1.7

160.2 1.6

160.9 1.5

161.6 1.6

162.4 1.8

163.2 1.9

163.9 1.9

164.6 1.9

165.5 1.9

166.3 1.9

166.9 1.8

167.5 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 1.7

8.8 1.8

8.8 2.7

8.8 2.6

8.9 2.2

8.9 1.6

8.9 1

8.9 1.1

9 0.8

8.9 0.7

9 0.5

9 0.2

9 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

149.8 0

150.3 0.5

150.7 1.6

151.3 1.5

152 1.5

152.7 1.6

153.5 1.9

154.3 1.9

155 1.9

155.7 2

156.5 2

157.4 2

157.9 1.9

158.5 1.8

7.9 1.9

8.1 4.4

8.3 7.4

8.5 8.7

8.7 9.6

9 10.9

9.3 12.2

9.6 12.6

9.8 12.5

10 12

10.3 11.1

10.5 10.3

10.7 9.2

10.8 7.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.6 -0.2

31.6 0.8

31.6 1

31.6 0.5

31.7 0.3

31.7 0.5

31.8 0.7

32 1

32 1.1

32.1 1.3

32.2 1.2

32.3 1

32.4 1.1

32.5 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.6 24.9 2

4.6 24.8 2

4.7 24.8 2.1

4.8 24.8 2.1

4.8 24.9 2.1

4.9 24.9 2.2

5 24.8 2.2

5 24.9 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 2.4

2 0.7

2 0.6

2 -0.9

2 -0.1

2.1 1.9

2.1 2.1

2.1 3

2.1 3.1

2.1 2.3

2.1 2.7

2.1 3

2.1 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 -2.6

7.6 -1.8

7.6 0.6

7.6 0.5

7.6 0.2

7.6 0.4

7.6 0

7.6 -0.1

7.6 0.1

7.6 0

7.6 -0.2

7.6 -0.1

7.6 -0.3

7.6 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -0.5

16.6 1.7

16.7 3.8

16.8 3.7

17 4.2

17.3 4.4

17.5 5

17.7 5.1

17.8 4.2

17.9 3.4

18.1 3.2

18.2 3.1

18.3 3.2

18.4 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.8 0.6

32.9 0.7

33 1.4

33.1 1.4

33.2 1.2

33.3 1.2

33.4 1.4

33.6 1.4

33.8 1.7

34 2

34.2 2.3

34.4 2.5

34.5 2.1

34.7 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 2.1

23.9 1.2

24 1.1

24 0.9

24.1 0.8

24.1 0.7

24.1 0.5

24.1 0.2

24.1 0

24.1 0.1

24.2 0.3

24.2 0.5

24.3 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 -1.1

7.5 -0.7

7.6 0.7

7.5 0.3

7.6 0.2

7.6 0.5

7.6 0.7

7.6 0.9

7.7 1.1

7.7 1.3

7.7 1.2

1.1 1.9

1.1 2.8

1.2 4.6

1.1 4.9

1.1 1.8

1.1 0.3

1.1 -0.8

1.1 -0.5

1.1 -1.7

1.1 -1.6

1.1 -1.5

1.1 -1.4

1.1 -0.6

1.1 -0.7

18.9 -2.6

19 -2.6

18.9 0.2

19 0.2

19 0.4

19.1 0.6

19.1 0.5

19.1 0.6

19.2 0.7

19.2 0.8

19.3 0.8

19.3 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

504.2 0.9

505.3 1

506.5 0.9

507.5 0.9

508.7 0.9

509.9 0.9

511.5 1

513.1 1.1

514.7 1.2

516.4 1.3

518.1 1.3

519.9 1.3

521.5 1.3

523 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

255.2 0.9

256.7 1.7

257.4 2.2

258.1 2.8

258.8 1.4

259.6 1.1

260.4 1.2

261 1.1

261.5 1

262 0.9

262.5 0.8

263 0.8

263.5 0.8

264.1 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.9

7.1

7.2

7.1

3136 1944 1192

3540 2294 1245

3759 2438 1321

3921 2591 1330

4039 2720 1319

4061 2931 1130

4070 3118 951

4183 3164 1019

4271 3217 1055

4321 3256 1065

4394 3316 1078

4436 3337 1100

4418 3282 1135

4338 3216 1122

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gaines v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth will see an average of 4.8 percent growth. Real per capita income level is expected to average $34,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.3 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at $46,600. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 0.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 9,414.97 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.1 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 5.0 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 8.4 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rates of -0.7 percent.

QUICK FACTS: • Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 142,490 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data). • An unemployment rate of 5.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 7,620 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • University of Florida – 14,723 • Shands HealthCare – 12,588 • Malcom Randall VA Medical Center – 4,317 • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 • City of Gainesville – 2,200 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 • Nationwide Insurance – 1,300 • Alachua County Government – 1,120 • Santa Fe Community College – 796 Source: City of Gainesville, 2011

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Turkey Creek wants GREC shut down

• Citing concerns over noise, air pollution and truck traffic, residents of the Turkey Creek Golf and Country Club say they want the biomass plant shut down. • On Monday, the community’s homeowners’ association sent a letter to the Gainesville City Commission asking the city to shut down the Gainesville Renewable Energy Center, which is privately-owned and has a 30-year contract to sell power to the city.

• Residents of the community of more than 1,000 homes have been sending emails of complaint over noise from the plant since August. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 30, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Gaines v ille

County collecting waste vegetable oil for biodiesel at fairs • Alachua County will collect waste vegetable oil from food vendors at upcoming fairs and festivals that it can use to produce biodiesel fuel. • Likewise, these collection drums will be used at the city of Gainesville’s Downtown Festival and Art Show on November 16 and 17 as well as at the Hoggetowne Medieval Faire, which will run Jan. 25-26 and Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2014. • Alachua County Pollution Prevention Manager John Mousa said the county collected roughly 150 gallons of waste vegetable oil from food vendors at the fair. • Next year, the county plans to work with even more local festivals and fairs to broaden its waste vegetable oil collection efforts. Over the past two years, it has collected more than 700 gallons of the stuff from various community events. Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 31, 2013 UF gets board’s OK to spend $1 billion to hire 100 faculty

• The Florida Board of Governors has given the green light to a plan for the University of Florida to spend close to $1 billion to hire as many as 100 new faculty over the next five years to help achieve top-10 status nationally. • UF is already among the top 10 public universities in 22 categories identified by President Bernie Machen but lags in seven critical areas, four of them having to do with faculty.

• The plan, outlined by Machen, calls for investing $13.3 million in key areas and to recruit faculty with national standing in those areas.

• The law requires each university to submit a five-year benchmark plan for board approval. Each plan targets rankings on “key performance metrics for national excellence,” the Board of Governors said.

Local firm Anamar gets 10-year maritime contract • Gainesville-based Anamar Environmental Consulting was awarded a 10-year contract with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to monitor tide, current and water level data in U.S. waters.

• Tasks under the contract include monitoring, assessing and distributing the data that NOAA’s National Ocean Service Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services provides to the maritime industry. • The company will provide depth data that ships use to safely pass through seaports, under bridges and across coastal bars, as well as data used to provide real time and predicted storm conditions and sea level rise. • Anamar would not reveal the value of the contract. Source: The Gainesville Sun, December 5, 2013 Gainesville Company secures $800,000 to finance 3D modeling software • Gainesville-based Paracosm has secured $800,000 in private and public funding to advance its 3D modeling and navigation software.

• The funding includes $300,000 -- announced this week -- from the Institute for the Commercialization of Public Research. • Funding from the institute requires a private funding match.

• Paracosm’s private funding includes $500,000 total from “angel” investors in Gainesville and South Florida, and the Vegas Tech Nimbus Fund, CEO Amir Rubin said.

• The company is developing software that uses computer-aided design (CAD) to convert depth cameras into 3D mapping systems. Source: The Gainesville Sun, December 6, 2013

Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 21, 2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gaines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

10000.0

8.0%

8500.0

6.0%

8000.0

4.0%

7500.0 7000.0 6500.0

(Thousands)

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment 140.0

(Millions 2000 $)

9500.0 9000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

Gaines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.8 -4.2 5.2 3.7

9.2 3.9 5.2 4.0

9.5 4.0 5.3 4.3

9.9 3.6 5.4 4.4

10.1 2.9 5.7 4.5

10.6 4.9 5.9 4.7

11.1 4.1 6.2 4.9

11.6 4.8 6.5 5.1

12.2 5.4 6.8 5.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -4.1

8.3 2.2

8.4 1.6

8.6 1.7

8.7 1.7

9.0 3.6

9.3 2.6

9.6 3.2

9.9 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.4 30.8

34.6 31.4

35.7 31.6

36.7 31.9

37.5 32.3

39.1 33.2

40.6 34.0

42.4 34.9

44.4 36.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.2 3.1

40.7 1.3

41.3 1.4

42.1 1.9

43.0 2.2

44.4 3.2

45.8 3.2

47.3 3.4

49.0 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

127.7 -4.4

126.9 -0.6

127.0 0.0

128.9 1.5

131.5 2.0

133.2 1.3

134.6 1.0

136.1 1.2

137.5 1.0

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 -16.0

4.4 -5.7

4.4 -0.9

4.4 0.4

4.5 1.4

4.6 3.1

4.7 1.7

4.7 0.7

4.7 0.0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

123.0 -3.9

122.5 -0.4

122.6 0.1

124.5 1.5

127.0 2.0

128.6 1.2

129.9 1.0

131.4 1.2

132.8 1.0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9.0

3.9 -8.7

4.2 9.3

4.4 4.9

4.6 4.9

5.1 10.8

5.7 11.4

6.1 6.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.0 -7.1

17.7 -1.8

17.9 1.0

18.1 1.2

18.7 3.6

19.1 1.7

19.1 0.2

19.2 0.7

19.4 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.3 13.3 2.4

2.1 13.2 2.3

2.2 13.4 2.3

2.3 13.4 2.4

2.4 13.9 2.5

2.4 14.1 2.5

2.4 14.0 2.6

2.5 14.0 2.7

2.6 13.9 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -0.5

1.5 -1.1

1.5 0.0

1.5 1.9

1.5 0.2

1.5 2.4

1.6 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.0 -3.1

6.0 -0.4

6.1 2.0

6.4 5.3

6.5 1.5

6.6 1.2

6.6 0.0

6.6 -0.2

6.6 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.8 3.7

11.4 5.6

11.9 4.6

12.3 3.3

12.8 4.5

13.3 3.3

13.6 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 0.2

22.6 0.8

22.8 1.2

23.5 3.0

24.4 4.0

24.8 1.4

25.0 0.9

25.4 1.6

25.8 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 -7.1

13.2 -3.0

13.3 0.7

13.5 1.4

14.4 6.4

14.6 1.7

14.7 0.4

14.7 0.0

14.8 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -6.5

4.1 -2.8

4.1 0.7

4.0 -2.0

4.2 3.2

4.2 0.9

4.2 -0.2

4.2 0.4

4.3 0.8

4.3 5.4

4.7 10.9

4.4 -6.1

4.4 -0.9

4.1 -7.3

4.1 1.2

4.1 -0.5

4.0 -2.2

4.0 -1.4

37.9 -1.5

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.8

37.4 -1.0

36.9 -1.5

36.7 -0.4

36.7 -0.1

36.7 0.1

36.9 0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

263.6 0.7

264.8 0.5

266.6 0.7

268.5 0.7

270.5 0.7

272.0 0.6

272.9 0.3

273.9 0.4

275.2 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

137.8 -0.9

138.8 0.7

139.8 0.8

141.5 1.2

142.5 0.6

146.1 2.6

148.3 1.5

149.2 0.6

149.3 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.1

8.0

7.6

6.7

5.4

5.1

5.0

4.9

511.5 363.6 148.0

510.9 406.7 104.0

446.7 299.5 147.0

574.4 397.9 177.0

761.9 543.7 218.0

964.3 683.4 281.0

1312.4 829.7 483.0

1456.3 894.5 562.0

1454.4 868.1 586.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gaines v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

10.5 5.8 5.8 4.6

10.6 5 5.9 4.7

10.7 4.5 6 4.7

10.8 4.3 6 4.8

10.9 4.1 6.1 4.8

11 4.1 6.2 4.9

11.1 4 6.2 4.9

11.2 4.2 6.3 4.9

11.4 4.3 6.4 5

11.5 4.6 6.4 5.1

11.7 5 6.5 5.2

11.8 5.3 6.6 5.2

12 5.4 6.7 5.3

12.2 5.5 6.7 5.4

9 4.8

9 3.5

9.1 3.2

9.1 2.8

9.2 2.6

9.3 2.5

9.3 2.6

9.4 2.6

9.5 2.9

9.6 3.3

9.7 3.7

9.8 3.8

9.9 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.6 33

39 33.2

39.3 33.3

39.6 33.5

40.1 33.7

40.4 33.9

40.7 34

41.1 34.2

41.7 34.5

42.1 34.8

42.6 35

43.1 35.3

43.7 35.7

44.2 36

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 3.2

44.2 3.1

44.6 3.2

44.9 3.2

45.2 3.3

45.6 3.2

46 3.2

46.3 3.2

46.8 3.4

47.1 3.4

47.5 3.4

47.9 3.4

48.4 3.4

48.8 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

132.8 1.9

133.1 1.2

133.2 1

133.6 0.9

134 0.9

134.3 1

134.7 1.1

135.2 1.2

135.5 1.1

135.9 1.2

136.3 1.2

136.8 1.2

137.1 1.2

137.4 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 2.5

4.6 4

4.6 2.9

4.6 2.8

4.7 2.5

4.7 1.8

4.7 1.2

4.7 1.3

4.7 1

4.7 0.8

4.7 0.7

4.7 0.3

4.7 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

128.2 1.9

128.5 1.1

128.6 1

128.9 0.9

129.3 0.9

129.7 0.9

130 1.1

130.5 1.2

130.8 1.1

131.2 1.2

131.6 1.2

132.1 1.2

132.4 1.2

132.7 1.1

4.5 3.3

4.6 2.9

4.7 6.1

4.8 7.5

4.9 8.6

5 10.2

5.2 11.8

5.4 12.5

5.5 12.5

5.6 12

5.8 11

5.9 10.2

6 9.1

6.1 7.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 4.4

19.1 1.9

19 0.5

19.1 0.1

19.1 -0.1

19.1 0.1

19.1 0.3

19.2 0.6

19.2 0.7

19.2 0.8

19.3 0.8

19.3 0.6

19.4 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 14.2 2.5

2.4 14.1 2.5

2.4 14.1 2.6

2.4 14 2.6

2.5 14 2.6

2.5 14 2.7

2.5 13.9 2.7

2.6 13.9 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 7.3

1.5 0.9

1.5 -0.2

1.5 -0.1

1.5 -1.6

1.5 -0.7

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.6

1.5 2.6

1.5 2.7

1.5 2

1.6 2.4

1.6 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 3.1

6.6 1

6.6 0.4

6.6 0.3

6.6 0.1

6.6 0.2

6.6 -0.1

6.6 -0.2

6.6 -0.1

6.6 -0.2

6.6 -0.3

6.6 -0.4

6.6 -0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 2.8

12.3 2.9

12.3 3.7

12.4 3.6

12.6 4

12.8 4.2

12.9 4.8

13.1 5

13.1 4.1

13.2 3.2

13.3 3

13.4 2.9

13.5 2.9

13.6 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 2.8

24.8 1.1

24.8 1

24.9 0.9

24.9 0.8

25 0.8

25 0.9

25.1 1

25.2 1.2

25.4 1.5

25.5 1.8

25.6 2

25.6 1.6

25.7 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.6 3.7

14.6 1.6

14.6 1

14.7 0.7

14.7 0.6

14.7 0.5

14.7 0.3

14.7 0

14.7 -0.2

14.7 -0.1

14.7 0.1

14.7 0.3

14.7 0.5

14.8 0.5

4.2 2.5

4.2 1.2

4.2 0.3

4.2 -0.1

4.2 -0.2

4.2 -0.3

4.2 -0.2

4.2 0.1

4.2 0.3

4.2 0.5

4.2 0.7

4.2 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -4.5

4.1 1.8

4.2 3.8

4.1 4.1

4.1 1.1

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -1.5

4.1 -1.2

4 -2.4

4 -2.3

4 -2.2

4 -2.1

4 -1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

36.7 -0.7

36.7 -0.2

36.6 -0.5

36.7 -0.4

36.7 -0.1

36.7 -0.2

36.6 0

36.7 0

36.7 0.1

36.7 0.2

36.8 0.3

36.8 0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

271.5 0.7

271.8 0.6

272.1 0.5

272.4 0.4

272.6 0.4

272.8 0.4

273 0.3

273.2 0.3

273.4 0.3

273.7 0.3

274 0.4

274.3 0.4

274.7 0.5

275 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

144.9 1.7

146 2.4

146.5 2.8

147.1 3.3

147.6 1.9

148.1 1.4

148.6 1.4

148.9 1.2

149 1

149.1 0.7

149.2 0.5

149.3 0.3

149.3 0.2

149.3 0.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

5.2

5.1

4.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

852 611 241

914 675 239

998 706 291

1094 741 353

1197 767 430

1278 819 460

1366 862 503

1409 871 538

1433 880 553

1445 889 557

1467 903 564

1481 906 574

1479 889 590

1453 869 584

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

J ackson v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.7 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $39,800, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, while average annual wage level is expected to be $53,600. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 60,206.93 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 704,059 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data). • An unemployment rate of 6.5% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 46,071 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820 • Baptist Health Systems – 8,270 • Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500 • Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200 • JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development

Employment growth is expected to average 2.0 percent annually. Unemployment will average 5.8 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 8.7 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, and then the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector with an average growth rate of 2.0 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.3.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES PHH Mortgage will lay off 365 workers

• New Jersey-based PHH Mortgage will lay off 365 workers at their Jacksonville office location. The worker’s last day will be December 2nd. • The company, whose office is located at Gate Parkway, will have 700 employees after the layoffs. The layoffs are mostly in the loan origination department.

• The Jacksonville offices opened in 2001, originally planning to relocate its headquarters to Jacksonville. Layoffs have been abundant in the mortgage refinancing industry with Wells Fargo and Bank of America also announcing recent layoffs. Source: Florida Times-Union, October 3, 2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ackson v ille

Haskell snags sixth multi-million Coast Guard contract

• Haskell Co., based out of Jacksonville, was awarded a $4.6 million design-build contract to improve the infrastructure needed to support fast response cutters at the Pascagoula, Mississippi U.S. Coast Guard station.

• The company will renovate three support buildings, work on the station’s piers, and resurface the parking lot. Recently Haskell completed a similar project at the Key West Coast Guard station, and has four more similar projects under contract across the country. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 22, 2013 APR buys GE unit for $314 million

• Jacksonville-based APR energy has agreed to a deal to buy General Electric’s power rental business.

• The $314 million deal will be made up of $250 million in APR stock and $64 million cash. APR has 115 employees in Jacksonville, but does its work overseas providing temporary power plants in emerging African, Latin American, and Middle Eastern markets. • The GE unit is part of GE Power & Water in Houston, which provides temporary power generation through mobile gas turbines. Source: Florida Times-Union, October 23, 2013 Jacksonville City Council approves $43 million in upgrades at EverBank Field

• In a 14-2 vote, City Council members approved spending $43 million in updates, including adding the largest scoreboards in the world, a revamped platform in the north end zone, and a new scoreboard control room. • Shad Khan, the owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars, has committed to spending an additional $20 million on the project.

• The funding from the city will come from the 6 percent hotel tax, of which 1/3 already goes towards the stadium and other local athletic 40

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

venue improvements. The city will issue bonds for its share, paying off approximately $3 million a year. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 12, 2013 Jacksonville economy continues fall down national chart • The Jacksonville economy, which was ranked in the top 20 economies in the U.S. earlier this year, has fallen to 42nd in November in the latest On Numbers Economic Index. • The index is designed to show the relative economic strength of 102 major metros, and is calculated once a month based on the latest official statistics. The 18-part formula assesses private-sector job growth, unemployment, earnings, housing-price appreciation, construction, and retail activity.

• Austin has led the list for the past three months, and nine out of the last ten months. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 27, 2013

J ackson v ille Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

65000.0

55000.0

6.0%

50000.0

4.0%

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0

1.6

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

680.0

1.4

60000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1.2

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

51.3 -4.3 27.3 24.0

53.1 3.5 27.7 25.4

55.7 4.9 28.5 27.3

58.0 4.1 29.6 28.5

60.4 4.1 31.1 29.2

64.0 6.0 32.8 31.2

67.3 5.2 34.5 32.8

71.1 5.6 36.3 34.7

75.4 6.1 38.2 37.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.3 -4.3

48.2 1.8

49.4 2.5

50.5 2.2

52.0 3.0

54.4 4.6

56.4 3.7

58.6 3.9

61.2 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.4 35.4

39.3 35.7

40.9 36.2

42.0 36.6

43.2 37.2

45.2 38.4

46.9 39.2

48.8 40.2

51.0 41.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.2 0.8

46.3 2.4

47.1 1.7

48.1 2.3

49.5 2.9

51.1 3.2

52.8 3.2

54.5 3.2

56.2 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

584.4 -5.6

580.8 -0.6

587.0 1.1

595.9 1.5

610.7 2.5

623.3 2.1

636.7 2.2

649.7 2.0

661.5 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 -9.9

27.4 -6.0

27.4 -0.1

27.9 1.9

27.8 -0.3

28.4 2.1

29.1 2.2

29.2 0.6

29.2 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

555.1 -5.4

553.3 -0.3

559.6 1.1

567.9 1.5

582.9 2.6

594.8 2.1

607.6 2.1

620.4 2.1

632.3 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 -23.4

29.1 -12.7

27.5 -5.6

27.5 0.0

29.3 6.6

31.5 7.5

35.0 11.0

38.5 10.0

40.9 6.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

126.9 -6.9

124.4 -2.0

124.1 -0.2

125.8 1.4

129.7 3.1

132.4 2.1

135.0 1.9

137.7 2.0

140.3 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.8 30.0

24.8 69.0 30.3

24.8 70.4 30.6

25.0 73.4 31.3

25.3 74.9 32.1

26.0 75.1 33.5

26.8 75.5 34.8

27.6 75.8 35.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -5.6

9.2 -4.0

9.0 -2.4

9.0 0.5

9.1 0.1

9.3 2.2

9.5 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

55.7 -6.7

55.7 0.0

58.0 4.1

60.1 3.7

61.9 2.9

62.6 1.1

62.6 0.1

62.8 0.2

62.8 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

79.4 -5.7

82.4 3.7

87.6 6.3

91.1 4.1

98.8 8.4

103.5 4.7

107.0 3.5

109.6 2.4

112.1 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

83.7 2.5

85.6 2.3

87.4 2.1

88.9 1.7

89.0 0.2

90.0 1.1

91.9 2.1

94.7 3.1

97.0 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

65.3 -3.8

65.0 -0.4

66.3 2.0

69.3 4.5

70.9 2.3

71.3 0.7

72.3 1.3

73.0 1.0

74.0 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.0 -9.6

23.9 -0.7

22.5 -5.5

21.3 -5.5

21.2 -0.6

21.2 0.2

21.2 0.1

21.4 0.7

21.6 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 2.3

18.0 2.9

17.3 -3.8

17.3 -0.3

16.7 -3.3

17.0 1.6

17.0 -0.1

16.7 -1.8

16.5 -1.0

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.8 -1.1

59.1 0.4

59.2 0.2

57.4 -3.0

56.4 -1.7

56.3 -0.2

56.6 0.5

57.0 0.6

57.5 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1336.9 1.0

1350.5 1.0

1363.4 1.0

1380.0 1.2

1397.7 1.3

1416.9 1.4

1436.7 1.4

1457.1 1.4

1478.0 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

681.7 -0.8

687.3 0.8

691.2 0.6

696.3 0.7

704.6 1.2

720.5 2.3

729.1 1.2

736.5 1.0

743.5 1.0

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.8

10.9

9.9

8.3

6.6

6.1

5.9

5.6

5.5

4936.2 3399.8 1536.0

3714.6 3562.8 152.0

3567.7 3173.6 394.0

6318.6 4541.8 1777.0

7521.7 6265.3 1256.0

9292.3 7145.5 2147.0

11787.3 8281.8 3505.0

13163.8 9004.9 4159.0

13140.3 8844.8 4295.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

J ackson v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

62.8 6.3 32.1 30.6

63.6 6 32.6 31

64.4 5.8 33 31.4

65.2 5.7 33.4 31.8

66.2 5.5 33.9 32.3

66.9 5.3 34.3 32.6

67.7 5.1 34.7 32.9

68.5 5 35.2 33.3

69.6 5.1 35.6 33.9

70.5 5.4 36.1 34.4

71.5 5.7 36.5 35

72.6 6.1 37 35.6

73.8 6.1 37.5 36.3

74.9 6.2 37.9 36.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.7 5.3

54.1 4.6

54.6 4.5

55.1 4.2

55.7 3.9

56.2 3.8

56.6 3.5

57 3.4

57.7 3.4

58.2 3.7

58.8 4

59.5 4.4

60.3 4.5

60.9 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

44.5 38.1

45 38.3

45.4 38.5

45.8 38.7

46.3 39

46.7 39.2

47 39.3

47.4 39.5

48 39.8

48.5 40

49 40.3

49.6 40.6

50.2 41

50.8 41.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.5 3.4

50.9 3.1

51.4 3.2

51.7 3.2

52.2 3.3

52.6 3.2

53 3.2

53.4 3.2

53.8 3.2

54.3 3.2

54.7 3.2

55.1 3.2

55.6 3.2

56 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

618.4 1.6

621.8 2.2

624.7 2.2

628.1 2.2

631.8 2.2

634.9 2.1

638.2 2.2

641.8 2.2

644.7 2.1

647.9 2

651.2 2

654.9 2

657.6 2

660.3 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

28 0.2

28.3 2

28.6 2.9

28.7 3.1

28.9 3.2

29 2.5

29.1 1.7

29.2 1.6

29.2 1.2

29.2 0.8

29.2 0.4

29.2 0.1

29.2 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

590.4 1.7

593.5 2.2

596.1 2.2

599.4 2.1

602.9 2.1

605.9 2.1

609.1 2.2

612.6 2.2

615.5 2.1

618.7 2.1

621.9 2.1

625.6 2.1

628.4 2.1

631.1 2

30.6 6.9

31.1 7

31.8 7.9

32.6 8.2

33.5 9.5

34.4 10.7

35.5 11.7

36.5 11.9

37.4 11.7

38.1 10.7

38.8 9.1

39.7 8.8

40.2 7.7

40.7 6.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

131.5 2.4

132.1 2.1

132.7 2.1

133.4 1.8

134 1.9

134.5 1.9

135.2 1.9

136.1 2

136.7 2

137.4 2.1

138 2.1

138.7 1.9

139.3 1.9

140 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.1 74.7 31.6

25.2 74.8 31.9

25.3 74.9 32.3

25.5 75 32.7

25.7 74.9 33.1

25.9 74.9 33.4

26.1 75.1 33.7

26.3 75.3 34

26.5 75.4 34.3

26.7 75.4 34.6

26.9 75.5 34.9

27.1 75.6 35.2

27.3 75.7 35.5

27.5 75.8 35.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 0.1

9.1 1.2

9 0.2

9 0.3

9 -1.2

9 -0.6

9.1 1.2

9.2 2.3

9.2 2.5

9.3 1.8

9.3 2.2

9.4 2.6

9.5 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

62.5 1.8

62.4 1.8

62.6 0.5

62.7 0.5

62.7 0.3

62.6 0.3

62.6 0

62.6 -0.2

62.7 0

62.7 0.1

62.8 0.3

62.9 0.4

62.9 0.3

62.8 0.2

102.1 6.7

103.2 5

103.8 3.7

104.7 3.6

105.9 3.7

106.7 3.4

107.5 3.5

108.1 3.3

108.5 2.5

109.1 2.2

110 2.3

110.7 2.4

111.3 2.6

111.8 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

89.5 -0.2

89.9 1.6

90.1 1.6

90.5 1.5

91 1.7

91.6 1.8

92.1 2.2

92.8 2.5

93.6 2.8

94.5 3.1

95 3.2

95.8 3.3

96.2 2.8

96.8 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

70.8 -2.1

71.2 0.7

71.5 2.2

71.8 1.9

72.1 1.8

72.2 1.5

72.3 1.2

72.5 1

72.6 0.8

72.8 0.8

73.1 1.1

73.4 1.2

73.6 1.4

73.9 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 -0.5

21.2 0.5

21.2 0.6

21.2 0.2

21.2 0.1

21.2 0

21.2 0.3

21.3 0.4

21.3 0.6

21.4 0.8

21.4 0.9

21.5 1.1

21.6 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 -2.5

17 0.5

17.1 4.1

17 4.4

17.1 1.5

17 -0.1

16.9 -1.2

16.9 -0.8

16.7 -1.9

16.7 -1.8

16.6 -1.7

16.6 -1.6

16.6 -1

16.5 -1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

56.3 -0.7

56.3 -0.4

56.3 0.1

56.4 0.2

56.5 0.4

56.6 0.5

56.7 0.6

56.8 0.6

56.9 0.6

57 0.6

57.1 0.7

57.3 0.8

57.4 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1409.6 1.3

1414.4 1.4

1419.3 1.4

1424.2 1.4

1429.2 1.4

1434.2 1.4

1439.2 1.4

1444.3 1.4

1449.3 1.4

1454.5 1.4

1459.7 1.4

1465 1.4

1470.2 1.4

1475.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

715.6 1.8

720 2

722 2.3

724.3 2.9

726 1.4

728 1.1

730.3 1.1

732.2 1.1

733.8 1.1

735.5 1

737.3 1

739.1 0.9

740.9 1

742.6 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

8425 6666 1759

9089 7145 1944

9554 7286 2268

10100 7485 2616

10758 7651 3107

11466 8145 3321

12286 8637 3649

12639 8694 3945

12914 8811 4102

13067 8938 4129

13275 9104 4170

13400 9166 4234

13382 9044 4338

13151 8860 4291

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland will soon welcome Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low-to-moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at average of 5.2 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $32,400, the third lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $46,100. Population growth is expected to average 0.9 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 15,984.80 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 269,152 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data).

• An unemployment rate of 7.7% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 21,025 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,018

• Watson Clinic – 1,500 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Liberty Mutual (Summit Consulting) – 654 • Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 7.2 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 8.5 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 2.9 percent annual growth, and the Information sector averaging 1.9 percent. The Other Services, Financial, and Federal Government sectors will all experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.1,0.1, and -0.7 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Lockheed Martin Acquires Lakeland Facility for $7.2 Mil • Lockheed Martin announced that it purchased its Financial Services facility on South Parkway Frontage Road. It had previously been renting the facility. • The office employs more than 375 people, and has grown in recent years as Lockheed has consolidated its financial operations, relocating jobs to Lakeland.

• The office handles billings, collections, accounting, and payroll for Lockheed’s 116,000 global employees. Source: Lakeland Ledger, October 7, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

L akelan d

Publix Reports $359.9M Profit; Quarterly Profit Down Slightly

• Lakeland based Publix Super Markets Inc.’s third quarter profits came in at $359.9 million, down 2.3 percent from Q3 2012. Total sales were $7 billion, up 5.6 percent annually.

• Comparable-store sales—sales at locations open for at least a year—increased by 4.1 percent.

• Publix announced expansion plans for another store in the Charlotte, North Carolina area, and stores in Asheville, Cary, and Winston-Salem. The first North Carolina store is slated to open in early 2014. • Additionally, Publix plans to acquire seven BILO stores in North and South Carolina, and enter new markets in North Myrtle Beach and Pawleys Island, South Carolina. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 1, 2013 Florida’s Natural Growers Pull in Profit Shares

• Even facing a 3 percent decline in sales volume, Lake Wales-based Florida’s Natural Grower’s brand, grower-members still saw the thirdhighest profit share in company history.

• Over 1,000 Florida’s Natural growers received $1.75 per pound for oranges and $1.60 for grapefruit during the 2012-2013 fiscal year that ended Aug 31.

• 470 homes were sold in October, 8 less than October 2012, but up 5 percent from 448 homes sold in September. • Lakeland has 248 home sales in October, down 7.1 percent from last year, while East Polk has 198 home sales, a 5.3 percent increase from last year.

• Florida saw a 6.5 percent increase from October 2012, while the US saw a 12.8 percent increase. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 20, 2013 Polk Jobless Rate Drops on a Dash of Job Growth • Polk’s unemployment rate in October was 7.5 percent, down from 8.0 percent in September, and 9.2 percent a year ago.

• There were 2,000 jobs added on an annual basis, up 1.1 percent from September. Multiple sectors contributed to the additions, including retail, construction, manufacturing, tourism, warehousing, and professional services.

• Professor of economics at Polk State College, Gordon Kettle, does note, however, that after adjusting for workers exiting the labor force, the unemployment rate would be 8.5 percent. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 22, 2013

• The returns on oranges represented an 8 percent decline from the 2011-2012 $1.90 per pound 2011-2012 season average, but a 3.2 percent increase in grapefruit prices per pound from the previous season. • Despite the sales volume declines, Florida’s Natural’s sales revenue for the year fell just 0.3 percent. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 11, 2013 Polk County Home Prices Up in October

• According to the Florida Realtors organization, the October median sale price for single-family existing homes in Polk County was $129,350, up 14.5 percent from last year. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

17000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 13000.0 12000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0

2.5

15000.0

210.0

170.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

L akelan d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.5 -3.9 7.7 10.8

19.6 5.9 7.7 11.9

20.5 4.7 7.8 12.8

21.4 4.1 8.0 13.3

22.0 2.7 8.3 13.7

23.2 5.3 8.7 14.5

24.2 4.7 9.1 15.1

25.5 5.2 9.6 15.9

27.0 5.8 10.0 16.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.1 -3.9

17.8 4.1

18.2 2.3

18.6 2.2

18.9 1.6

19.7 4.0

20.3 3.1

21.0 3.6

21.9 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

30.9 28.5

32.5 29.5

33.6 29.8

34.7 30.2

35.2 30.3

36.7 31.2

38.1 31.9

39.8 32.8

41.7 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.9 0.9

39.8 2.2

40.5 1.8

41.5 2.4

42.6 2.8

43.9 3.0

45.3 3.2

46.8 3.3

48.4 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.4 -5.2

191.7 -2.4

190.7 -0.5

192.8 1.1

193.5 0.4

196.3 1.4

199.8 1.8

203.5 1.8

206.4 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.3

14.2 0.0

14.5 1.9

14.7 1.9

15.1 2.3

15.3 1.8

15.5 0.9

15.5 0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181.6 -4.9

177.5 -2.3

176.5 -0.6

178.3 1.0

178.8 0.2

181.2 1.4

184.4 1.8

188.0 1.9

190.9 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 -15.4

11.0 -8.8

10.4 -5.9

10.2 -1.8

10.3 1.6

11.0 6.5

12.2 10.8

13.5 10.8

14.3 5.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.3 -6.0

44.9 -0.9

46.0 2.4

46.9 2.1

47.4 1.0

47.9 0.9

48.4 1.2

49.3 1.7

50.1 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 24.2 12.0

8.7 24.2 12.0

9.0 24.5 12.5

9.2 24.5 13.2

9.1 24.9 13.5

9.1 25.0 13.6

9.3 24.9 14.1

9.6 24.8 14.6

9.9 24.6 15.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -9.3

1.8 -7.0

1.7 -6.6

1.6 -3.0

1.7 3.9

1.7 2.6

1.7 0.3

1.8 2.4

1.8 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.0 -3.4

11.8 -1.7

11.6 -1.4

11.4 -1.8

11.3 -1.1

11.2 -0.1

11.3 0.1

11.2 -0.1

11.2 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 -7.6

25.7 -6.3

24.3 -5.3

25.2 3.7

25.1 -0.3

25.9 3.0

26.9 3.9

27.6 2.7

28.2 2.0

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.0 -1.4

29.1 0.4

29.6 1.5

29.3 -1.0

29.2 -0.3

29.4 0.8

29.7 1.1

30.3 1.9

30.8 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.8 6.1

18.9 6.1

18.9 0.3

19.2 1.6

19.3 0.4

19.4 0.1

19.5 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 -4.6

6.5 -3.5

6.1 -6.1

6.0 -1.0

5.9 -1.3

5.9 -0.6

5.9 -0.5

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -24.6

1.1 -7.6

1.1 -3.2

1.1 0.9

1.1 -0.4

1.1 -2.1

1.0 -1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.3

28.0 -1.6

27.7 -0.8

27.8 0.4

27.9 0.1

28.0 0.3

28.1 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

599.4 0.7

604.3 0.8

610.6 1.0

617.1 1.1

624.2 1.2

630.7 1.0

635.6 0.8

640.8 0.8

647.1 1.0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

273.2 0.0

277.1 1.4

270.4 -2.4

271.6 0.5

272.2 0.2

279.0 2.5

282.8 1.4

285.1 0.8

286.7 0.6

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11.1

12.2

11.5

9.8

8.1

7.5

7.3

7.1

6.9

1203.2 1190.0 13.0

1225.2 1168.8 56.0

1113.9 1058.6 55.0

1445.8 1392.4 53.0

2028.6 1972.7 56.0

3462.8 3206.2 257.0

5094.6 4377.9 717.0

5795.5 4819.3 976.0

5720.1 4650.8 1069.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.8 5.8 8.5 14.3

23 5.5 8.6 14.4

23.3 5.2 8.7 14.5

23.5 4.9 8.8 14.7

23.9 4.7 8.9 14.9

24.1 4.7 9.1 15.1

24.3 4.6 9.2 15.2

24.6 4.7 9.3 15.3

25 4.7 9.4 15.6

25.3 5 9.5 15.8

25.7 5.4 9.6 16

26 5.8 9.8 16.3

26.4 5.8 9.9 16.6

26.8 5.9 10 16.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 4.8

19.6 4

19.7 3.8

19.9 3.4

20.1 3.2

20.2 3.2

20.3 3.1

20.5 3.1

20.7 3.1

20.9 3.3

21.1 3.7

21.3 4.1

21.6 4.2

21.8 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.2 31

36.5 31.1

36.9 31.3

37.2 31.4

37.6 31.7

38 31.8

38.3 32

38.6 32.2

39.1 32.4

39.5 32.6

40 32.9

40.5 33.2

41 33.5

41.5 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.4 3.1

43.8 2.9

44.1 3.2

44.5 3

44.8 3.2

45.2 3.1

45.5 3.1

45.9 3.2

46.3 3.3

46.6 3.3

47 3.3

47.4 3.3

47.8 3.2

48.2 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

195.3 1.1

195.9 1.7

196.6 1.5

197.4 1.5

198.3 1.6

199.2 1.7

200.2 1.9

201.3 2

202.1 1.9

202.9 1.9

203.9 1.8

204.9 1.8

205.5 1.7

206.2 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.9 1.7

15 2.3

15.2 2.5

15.3 2.5

15.3 1.8

15.4 1.4

15.4 1.5

15.5 1.2

15.5 1.1

15.5 0.9

15.5 0.5

15.5 0.4

15.5 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

180.4 1

180.9 1.6

181.4 1.4

182.2 1.4

183.1 1.5

183.9 1.7

184.9 1.9

185.9 2

186.6 2

187.5 1.9

188.4 1.9

189.4 1.9

190 1.8

190.6 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.7 5.5

10.9 5.7

11.1 6.7

11.4 8.1

11.7 9

12 10.3

12.4 11.6

12.7 12

13.1 11.9

13.4 11.4

13.7 10.4

14 9.6

14.2 8.4

14.3 6.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

47.8 0.8

47.8 1.2

47.9 1

48 0.8

48.2 0.9

48.3 1.1

48.5 1.4

48.8 1.6

49 1.6

49.2 1.8

49.4 1.8

49.6 1.6

49.8 1.6

50 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 25.1 13.5

9.1 25 13.6

9.1 25 13.7

9.2 24.9 13.8

9.2 24.9 13.9

9.3 24.8 14

9.3 24.8 14.2

9.4 24.9 14.3

9.5 24.8 14.4

9.5 24.8 14.5

9.6 24.8 14.7

9.7 24.7 14.8

9.7 24.7 14.9

9.8 24.6 15

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 9.2

1.7 1.8

1.7 0

1.7 0.1

1.7 -1.4

1.7 -0.6

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.7

1.7 2.6

1.7 2.7

1.8 2

1.8 2.4

1.8 2.7

1.8 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 -0.6

11.2 -0.7

11.3 0.5

11.3 0.4

11.3 0.2

11.3 0.3

11.3 0

11.3 -0.1

11.3 0.1

11.2 -0.1

11.2 -0.2

11.2 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 1.8

25.8 3.8

26 3.2

26.1 3.1

26.5 3.5

26.8 3.7

27.1 4.2

27.3 4.4

27.4 3.4

27.5 2.6

27.7 2.4

27.9 2.3

28 2.4

28.1 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.3 0

29.4 0.8

29.4 1.2

29.5 1.2

29.6 1.1

29.7 1

29.8 1.2

29.9 1.2

30 1.5

30.2 1.8

30.4 2.1

30.5 2.3

30.6 1.8

30.8 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 2

19.2 2.7

19.3 1.1

19.3 0.8

19.3 0.7

19.3 0.6

19.3 0.4

19.3 0.1

19.3 -0.1

19.3 0

19.4 0.2

19.4 0.4

19.4 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -1.5

5.9 -0.3

5.9 0.1

5.9 -0.4

5.9 -0.5

5.9 -0.2

5.9 -0.3

5.9 0

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.4

5.9 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -2.5

1.1 -1.7

1.1 4

1.1 4.3

1.1 1.3

1.1 -0.2

1.1 -1.4

1.1 -1

1.1 -2.2

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -2

1.1 -1.9

1 -1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

27.9 0.6

27.9 0.4

27.8 -0.2

27.9 -0.2

27.9 0

27.9 0.2

27.9 0.1

28 0.2

28 0.3

28 0.4

28.1 0.4

28.1 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

628.6 1.1

630.1 1.1

631.4 1

632.7 0.9

633.9 0.8

635 0.8

636.2 0.8

637.3 0.7

638.7 0.8

640.1 0.8

641.5 0.8

643.1 0.9

644.7 0.9

646.3 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

277 2.4

278.8 2.1

279.7 2.5

280.7 3.1

281.5 1.6

282.4 1.3

283.3 1.3

284 1.2

284.5 1.1

285 0.9

285.4 0.7

285.7 0.6

286.1 0.6

286.5 0.6

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.1

2801 2639 162

3328 3135 193

3668 3387 281

4054 3663 391

4429 3899 530

4941 4282 659

5441 4640 801

5567 4690 878

5694 4751 943

5754 4792 962

5846 4862 984

5888 4873 1015

5838 4774 1064

5722 4661 1061

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.6 percent annually. The average real per capita income level, at $41,500, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be $55,400, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at an average level of 263,739.16 million dollars, the highest of the studied MSAs.

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 2,966,462 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data). • An unemployment rate of 7.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 216,335 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami-16,000 Baptist Health South Florida-13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.0 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 6.1 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at an average of 10.1 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 3.7 percent each year. The Financial sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Port approved for $16.5 million to expand cruise, cargo berths

• The Florida Seaport Transportation and Economic Development Council approved a $16.5 million allocation of funds to Port Everglades. The allocations, approved under two state funding sources, will become part of the Florida Department of Transportation’s 20142015 Work Program that will come before the Florida Legislature during the next legislative session. • Bermallo Ajamil & Partners will conduct the planning and design, after winning the award October 1.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, October 4, 2013

Source: The Beacon Council Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

David Beckham wants soccer-only stadium for Miami team • It is rumored that David Beckham met with billionaire Brightsar Corp. CEO Marcel Claure and Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez on the topic of soccer. • Beckham’s last contract with Major League Soccer allows him to purchase a franchise for $25 million, and he will be basing his team out of Miami. • Beckham wants a soccer-only stadium in the long run. Short term, the team could locate to Marlins Park, with interest in housing the team also coming from the Miami Dolphin’s Sun Life Stadium and Florida International University.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 13, 2013 Huge gift launches 5-story expansion at Cleveland Clinic Florida • Pauline Braathen, a patient at Cleveland Clinic for more than a decade, made a $30 million donation to help fund the new five-story, 143,000-square-foot building. • The Egil and Pauline Braathen Facility will house the Pauline Braathen Neurological Center and a cancer center. The building has broken ground, and should be completed by February 2015, which will add much needed extra space to the busy medical campus.

• The neurology expansion at Cleveland Clinic Florida is part of an increased evidence of the specialty in South Florida, which has seen the Max Planck Florida Institute for Neuroscience opening, FAU expanding its neuroscience program, and Boca Raton Regional Hospital creating the Marcus Neuroscience Institute. Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 18, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Palm Beach County Convention Center hotel construction begins

• City officials broke ground on the new 400room Hilton West Palm Beach at the Palm Beach Convention Center hotel.

• The hotel, which has been in the works for over a decade, will open in fall of 2015 and is expected to add over 1,500 jobs and generate $1 billion in economic activity over the next 10 years.

• The $100 million dollar project is being developed by Related Cos., and will include two ballrooms, eight conference rooms, and other event space. Source: South Florida Business Journal, December 9, 2013 South Florida leads nation in high-end foreclosures • The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach metro area ranked first in foreclosure activity in homes above the $5 million price range.

• This year South Florida has 47 high-end properties in foreclosure, a 488 percent increase from last year. Nationwide foreclosure activity on $5million-plus homes has jumped 61 percent since last year. Florida and California accounted for more than 60 percent of high-end foreclosure activity.

• RealtyTrac suggests that the trend may indicate lenders are now financially stable enough to take a big-ticket loss on these properties, and that the country’s improving housing market may mean more potential buyers for these high-end homes in the future. Source: South Florida Business Journal, December 4, 2013

M iami â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t L au d e r d ale â&#x20AC;&#x201C; P ompano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 280000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

220000.0

6.0% 4.0%

200000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

180000.0

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0

240000.0

8.0%

2600.0

0.8

260000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Miami Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

225.8 -6.5 106.1 119.7

234.3 3.8 107.0 127.4

246.1 5.0 110.8 135.3

256.3 4.1 116.1 140.2

263.6 2.9 119.9 143.8

278.1 5.5 125.3 152.8

292.1 5.1 132.1 160.0

308.4 5.6 139.2 169.2

327.3 6.1 146.3 180.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

208.3 -6.4

212.7 2.1

218.1 2.6

223.0 2.2

226.9 1.7

236.3 4.1

244.6 3.5

254.1 3.9

265.8 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.9 37.8

41.9 38.0

43.2 38.3

44.4 38.6

45.1 38.8

47.0 39.9

48.7 40.8

50.9 41.9

53.3 43.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.8 0.4

48.5 1.6

49.4 1.8

50.6 2.4

51.5 1.8

52.8 2.5

54.5 3.3

56.2 3.2

58.1 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2207.1 -6.3

2189.5 -0.8

2229.4 1.8

2280.5 2.3

2314.0 1.5

2359.8 2.0

2410.2 2.1

2461.8 2.1

2507.5 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

80.5 -13.8

76.0 -5.6

76.3 0.5

77.0 0.8

76.5 -0.7

77.9 1.8

78.7 1.0

78.6 -0.1

78.0 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2126.6 -6.0

2113.5 -0.6

2153.0 1.9

2203.5 2.3

2237.6 1.5

2281.9 2.0

2331.5 2.2

2383.2 2.2

2429.5 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

102.9 -24.0

89.1 -13.5

85.7 -3.7

87.8 2.4

90.6 3.2

97.9 8.1

110.5 12.9

123.8 12.0

133.2 7.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

505.7 -6.6

504.9 -0.2

520.4 3.1

538.0 3.4

553.6 2.9

563.5 1.8

572.5 1.6

583.2 1.9

593.2 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

135.4 281.1 89.1

132.6 283.9 88.4

134.5 294.9 91.0

139.6 304.2 94.2

142.7 316.0 94.9

144.3 321.1 97.3

147.9 321.3 101.7

151.7 322.5 106.1

155.5 322.9 110.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 -9.6

43.6 -3.0

44.1 1.2

45.0 2.0

45.0 -0.1

45.4 0.9

45.4 0.1

46.3 1.9

47.3 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

156.2 -9.1

153.3 -1.9

156.4 2.0

161.5 3.3

164.4 1.8

164.6 0.1

164.4 -0.2

164.3 0.0

163.8 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

320.7 -8.0

324.2 1.1

337.8 4.2

348.7 3.2

354.0 1.5

367.5 3.8

384.5 4.6

397.5 3.4

408.7 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

330.6 1.3

335.4 1.5

339.9 1.3

341.6 0.5

344.7 0.9

350.3 1.6

357.3 2.0

367.3 2.8

375.2 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

248.1 -3.7

252.2 1.6

262.1 3.9

274.7 4.8

282.8 2.9

289.6 2.4

293.4 1.3

296.1 0.9

300.1 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

98.7 -7.0

98.2 -0.5

101.5 3.3

107.2 5.7

107.1 -0.1

107.7 0.5

107.4 -0.3

107.8 0.4

108.9 1.0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

34.1 0.7

36.7 7.6

34.1 -6.9

33.8 -1.0

33.0 -2.2

33.9 2.8

33.9 -0.1

33.4 -1.7

33.1 -0.9

284.5 -2.3

275.9 -3.0

270.9 -1.8

265.2 -2.1

262.4 -1.1

261.4 -0.4

262.2 0.3

263.6 0.5

266.0 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5516.3 1.0

5597.1 1.5

5695.2 1.8

5772.0 1.3

5846.6 1.3

5919.7 1.2

5992.4 1.2

6064.1 1.2

6136.9 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2804.5 -2.3

2842.5 1.4

2902.9 2.1

2949.9 1.6

2952.2 0.1

2998.7 1.6

3040.4 1.4

3076.8 1.2

3109.6 1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.3

11.2

10.3

8.5

7.4

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.8

3468.6 2216.6 1252.0

5033.9 3267.0 1767.0

7266.9 4124.6 3142.0

11422.8 5270.5 6152.0

18146.3 6638.0 11508.0

23552.4 11262.7 12290.0

31510.3 16988.4 14522.0

36520.7 20055.7 16465.0

37960.0 20316.9 17643.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

273.1 5.6 122.9 150.2

276.4 5.5 124.5 151.9

279.8 5.4 126.1 153.7

283.1 5.3 127.7 155.4

287.3 5.2 129.5 157.8

290.4 5.1 131.2 159.2

293.7 5 133 160.7

297.1 4.9 134.8 162.3

301.9 5.1 136.5 165.4

306 5.4 138.3 167.8

310.4 5.7 140 170.4

315.2 6.1 141.9 173.3

320.3 6.1 143.7 176.6

325.1 6.2 145.5 179.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

233.4 4.6

235.3 4.1

237.3 4.1

239.3 3.8

241.9 3.6

243.7 3.6

245.4 3.4

247.3 3.3

250.2 3.4

252.7 3.7

255.4 4

258.4 4.5

261.5 4.5

264.4 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

46.3 39.6

46.8 39.8

47.2 40

47.6 40.2

48.2 40.6

48.5 40.7

48.9 40.9

49.4 41.1

50 41.4

50.5 41.7

51.1 42

51.8 42.4

52.4 42.8

53 43.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.1 1.6

52.6 2.2

53 3.1

53.4 3.1

53.9 3.3

54.3 3.3

54.7 3.2

55.1 3.2

55.6 3.2

56 3.2

56.4 3.2

56.9 3.1

57.3 3.2

57.8 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2343.3 1.9

2354.4 2.3

2364.4 1.9

2377.1 1.9

2390.7 2

2403.1 2.1

2416.4 2.2

2430.7 2.3

2442.1 2.2

2454.8 2.2

2467.8 2.1

2482.5 2.1

2492.5 2.1

2502.7 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

77.1 0.8

77.7 2.3

78.3 2.1

78.4 2

78.6 2

78.6 1.1

78.7 0.5

78.8 0.5

78.8 0.3

78.7 0.1

78.5 -0.2

78.4 -0.5

78.3 -0.7

78.1 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2266.3 1.9

2276.7 2.3

2286.1 1.9

2298.7 1.9

2312.1 2

2324.5 2.1

2337.7 2.3

2351.8 2.3

2363.3 2.2

2376.1 2.2

2389.3 2.2

2404.1 2.2

2414.3 2.2

2424.6 2

94.4 4.6

96.4 8.6

98.9 9.2

101.8 9.7

105 11.2

108.5 12.5

112.5 13.7

116.1 14

119.4 13.7

122.3 12.7

124.9 11.1

128.4 10.7

130.5 9.4

132.5 8.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

560.5 2.1

562.4 2

564.3 1.7

566.9 1.5

568.9 1.5

570.8 1.5

573.4 1.6

577 1.8

579.4 1.8

581.9 1.9

584.4 1.9

587 1.7

589.3 1.7

592.1 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

143.1 321.2 95.9

143.9 321 96.8

144.7 321 97.7

145.6 321.3 98.8

146.6 320.8 100.1

147.4 320.8 101.1

148.2 321.4 102.1

149.4 322.3 103.3

150.4 322.2 104.4

151.3 322.4 105.6

152.1 322.6 106.6

153.1 322.7 107.6

154 322.5 108.7

155 323 109.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

45.5 1.8

45.4 1.2

45.2 0.3

45.3 0.4

45 -1.1

45.2 -0.6

45.7 1.2

45.9 1.1

46 2.1

46.2 2.2

46.4 1.5

46.7 1.8

47 2.2

47.2 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

165 0.8

164.4 0.6

164.5 -0.6

164.6 -0.3

164.4 0

164.3 -0.1

164.2 -0.2

164.3 -0.1

164.2 0

164.4 0.1

164.3 0

164 -0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

361.8 3.2

366.1 4.2

369 3.8

373.2 4.1

378.5 4.6

382.8 4.6

386.5 4.7

390 4.5

392.1 3.6

395.1 3.2

399.4 3.3

403.2 3.4

405.7 3.5

407.5 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

348.4 1.2

350 2.2

350.8 1.6

352.2 1.5

354.3 1.7

356.4 1.8

358.1 2.1

360.5 2.3

363.4 2.6

366.4 2.8

368.4 2.9

371 2.9

372.3 2.5

374.5 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

287.8 3.3

289 2.5

290.1 2

291.5 1.8

292.6 1.7

293 1.4

293.5 1.2

294.4 1

294.8 0.8

295.4 0.8

296.5 1

297.7 1.1

298.7 1.3

299.5 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

107.8 1.1

107.8 1.3

107.7 0

107.4 -0.3

107.4 -0.4

107.4 -0.3

107.4 0

107.6 0.2

107.7 0.3

107.9 0.5

108.1 0.6

108.4 0.7

108.7 0.9

33.6 0.4

34 2.2

34.2 4

34 4.5

34.1 1.5

34 0

33.9 -1.1

33.7 -0.7

33.5 -1.9

33.4 -1.8

33.3 -1.6

33.2 -1.5

33.2 -0.9

33.1 -0.9

261.4 -0.6

261.4 -0.5

261.3 -0.3

261.7 -0.1

261.8 0.1

262 0.3

262.4 0.4

262.6 0.4

263 0.4

263.4 0.5

263.8 0.6

264.3 0.6

264.9 0.8

265.6 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5892.5 1.3

5910.6 1.2

5928.8 1.2

5946.9 1.2

5965.2 1.2

5983.4 1.2

6001.5 1.2

6019.4 1.2

6037.4 1.2

6055.1 1.2

6073 1.2

6090.8 1.2

6109 1.2

6127.6 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2976.8 0.1

2995.9 1

3006 2.3

3016.1 3

3025.2 1.6

3035 1.3

3045.7 1.3

3055.7 1.3

3064.2 1.3

3072.6 1.2

3081.1 1.2

3089.5 1.1

3097.8 1.1

3105.8 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

21266 8959 12308

22570 10696 11874

24229 11983 12246

26144 13413 12730

28579 14670 13909

30403 16442 13960

32814 18115 14699

34245 18726 15519

35353 19311 16042

36095 19810 16285

36960 20398 16562

37674 20704 16970

38296 20712 17584

37832 20303 17530

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N aples - M a r co I slan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at an average of 7.1 percent. Real per capita income level, which is expected to average $58,800, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $53,700. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.6 percent. Population growth will average 2.4 percent, the highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be an average of 15,426.86 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS: • Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 150,522 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data). • An unemployment rate of 6.4% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 9,775 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110 • Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

Employment growth is expected to average 3.4 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 6.9 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 8.4 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector and Education and Health Services sector follow with average growth rates of 4.4 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800 • Marriott – 700 • Naples Grande Beach Resort – 760 • Downing Frye Realty – 550 • Golf Bay Group Co. – 500 Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Hiller to urge Collier commissioners to partner in soccer complex, 7,000-seat stadium • The Collier Commission Chairwoman Georgia Hiller is proposing a partnership with the SW Florida Soccer Foundation, a nonprofit organization.

• They hope to build a complex on 60 acres in Collier County. It would be built in three phases, beginning with four soccer fields. Phase two would be a 145,000 square-feet sports center. The last phase would be a stadium.

• The commission chairwoman hopes to grow the sports tourism industry in the county. Source: Naples News, December 4, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Lee commissioners agree on $1.4M incentive to offer to unnamed company • Lee County commissioners agreed to offer $1.48 million in a performance-based incentive award.

• $1 million will be from the Financial Incentives for Recruiting Strategic Targets Fund. The fund was created in order to attract companies into the county. The rest will be from the State Qualified Target Industry Tax Refund program. • The company promises to bring 400 jobs and build more than $20 million office building in the county.

Naples Square rezone OK’d for Grand Central Station property • The old Grand Central Station property downtown was approved for rezoning for the new Naples Square. The new square will be a 300-unit residential development.

• The new development will consist of four family residential buildings and commercial structures. • The council was concerned with the ongoing street maintenance and storm water management, but the developers of the project addressed the concerns. Source: Naples News, November 20, 2013

Source: Naples News, November 19, 2013 Local Boys & Girls clubs to receive Radel salary while he rehabs • The Boys & Girls Clubs of Collier and Lee County will divide the U.S. Representative Trey Radel’s salary during his rehabilitation. • The Representative is undergoing rehab in a treatment center in Naples and promised to donate his salary to charity.

• The money will provide scholarships to families wanting to join the Boys & Girls Clubs. Source: Naples News, December 3, 2013 Medical office complex near North Naples hospital has new owner • Collier Health Park’s mortgage was sold and the title was transferred to new owners. The new owner is McGuire Development Co. which wanted the property as an investment. • The company plans to keep the existing tenants and fill the empty areas. • The assessed value of the property is slightly over $9 million. The new owners valued the deal at more than $12 million. Source: Naples News, December 4, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N aples - M a r co I slan d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

0.6

0.8

140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.8 -14.7 5.0 12.8

18.6 4.6 5.1 13.5

19.7 5.6 5.3 14.4

20.6 4.7 5.6 15.0

21.4 4.1 6.0 15.5

23.1 7.6 6.5 16.6

24.4 6.0 6.9 17.6

26.2 7.0 7.4 18.8

28.2 7.9 7.9 20.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -14.6

16.9 2.8

17.4 3.1

17.9 2.8

18.5 2.9

19.6 6.2

20.5 4.4

21.5 5.3

22.9 6.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

55.8 51.5

57.6 52.3

60.0 53.1

61.9 53.8

63.3 54.5

66.8 56.7

69.1 57.9

72.0 59.3

75.6 61.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.5 -1.2

46.3 1.7

46.6 0.7

47.6 2.1

49.1 3.2

50.9 3.6

52.7 3.5

54.6 3.7

56.6 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

110.0 -8.6

109.9 -0.1

113.4 3.3

117.5 3.6

121.0 3.0

126.3 4.4

130.2 3.0

134.4 3.3

138.3 2.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 -11.2

2.5 -6.7

2.5 1.4

2.6 6.3

2.6 -0.9

2.7 1.7

2.7 2.0

2.7 0.9

2.7 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

107.3 -8.5

107.4 0.1

110.9 3.3

114.9 3.5

118.4 3.1

123.7 4.4

127.5 3.0

131.7 3.3

135.5 2.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 -27.9

9.1 -12.9

9.0 -1.0

9.4 4.3

9.8 4.4

10.2 4.3

11.3 10.6

12.6 11.9

13.5 6.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 -7.7

21.6 1.0

22.5 4.0

22.9 1.9

23.4 2.3

24.8 5.8

25.3 2.1

26.0 2.6

26.7 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 16.9 1.5

3.1 17.0 1.5

3.2 17.9 1.4

3.2 18.3 1.4

3.3 18.8 1.3

3.6 19.8 1.3

3.7 20.1 1.4

3.9 20.5 1.5

4.0 20.8 1.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -8.9

1.5 -4.1

1.5 -4.8

1.4 -2.0

1.5 2.7

1.5 2.4

1.5 1.5

1.6 3.8

1.7 3.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -9.8

6.5 -1.0

6.7 3.6

6.8 1.5

7.1 3.9

7.2 1.4

7.2 1.2

7.3 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 -4.6

11.1 5.8

12.1 9.3

13.6 12.1

14.1 3.8

15.0 5.9

15.7 4.6

16.2 3.7

16.7 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 -1.3

17.1 2.8

17.9 4.4

18.0 1.0

18.7 3.7

19.6 4.5

20.1 2.7

20.8 3.5

21.4 3.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.0 -8.2

21.3 1.7

22.6 6.0

23.6 4.6

24.7 4.6

25.8 4.2

26.3 1.9

26.7 1.6

27.2 2.0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -5.3

5.7 0.0

5.6 -1.9

5.6 1.1

5.6 0.0

5.9 4.8

6.0 1.5

6.1 2.1

6.3 2.5

0.7 1.2

0.8 14.7

0.7 -10.6

0.7 -7.1

0.6 -8.9

0.6 5.7

0.6 1.2

0.6 -0.5

0.6 0.3

12.9 -2.8

12.7 -1.6

12.7 0.3

12.9 1.5

13.2 2.0

13.3 1.1

13.5 1.8

13.8 2.0

14.1 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

319.2 0.7

323.3 1.3

328.1 1.5

333.1 1.5

338.8 1.7

345.5 2.0

353.6 2.3

363.2 2.7

373.2 2.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

143.5 -3.2

145.1 1.1

148.1 2.0

150.9 1.9

152.4 1.0

158.8 4.2

163.6 3.0

167.9 2.6

172.1 2.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.9

11.6

10.2

8.5

6.9

6.7

7.0

6.9

832.3 633.4 199.0

1202.4 803.9 399.0

1211.1 922.7 288.0

1479.6 1276.6 203.0

2590.1 1647.9 942.0

3867.5 2010.6 1857.0

4826.7 2620.0 2207.0

5297.7 2909.8 2388.0

5408.0 2884.3 2524.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.6 9.1 6.3 16.3

22.9 8.2 6.4 16.5

23.2 6.7 6.5 16.7

23.5 6.4 6.6 16.9

24 6 6.7 17.2

24.3 6 6.8 17.4

24.6 5.9 7 17.6

25 6.1 7.1 17.9

25.4 6.2 7.2 18.2

25.9 6.7 7.3 18.6

26.4 7.2 7.4 18.9

26.9 7.8 7.6 19.3

27.4 7.9 7.7 19.8

28 8.1 7.8 20.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.3 8.1

19.5 6.7

19.7 5.3

19.9 4.9

20.2 4.4

20.4 4.5

20.6 4.4

20.8 4.4

21.1 4.5

21.4 4.9

21.7 5.5

22.1 6.1

22.4 6.3

22.8 6.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

65.9 56.3

66.5 56.6

67 56.9

67.6 57.1

68.4 57.6

68.9 57.8

69.4 58

69.9 58.2

70.7 58.6

71.5 59.1

72.4 59.5

73.3 60.1

74.3 60.6

75.2 61.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.2 4

50.7 3.7

51.2 3.5

51.6 3.3

52 3.5

52.5 3.5

52.9 3.5

53.4 3.6

53.9 3.7

54.4 3.7

54.9 3.6

55.4 3.6

55.8 3.6

56.3 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

125.2 6.5

125.9 5.8

126.7 2.7

127.6 2.6

128.5 2.7

129.6 2.9

130.7 3.2

131.8 3.3

132.8 3.3

133.8 3.3

135 3.3

136.1 3.3

137 3.2

137.9 3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 -1.3

2.7 2.1

2.7 3

2.7 2.9

2.7 2.8

2.7 2.1

2.7 1.5

2.7 1.6

2.7 1.1

2.7 1

2.7 0.8

2.7 0.5

2.7 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

122.6 6.7

123.3 5.9

124 2.7

124.9 2.6

125.8 2.7

126.9 2.9

128 3.2

129.1 3.4

130 3.3

131.1 3.3

132.2 3.3

133.4 3.3

134.2 3.2

135.1 3.1

10 1.9

10.1 3.3

10.3 5.3

10.5 6.7

10.7 7.8

11.1 9.8

11.5 11.7

11.8 12.9

12.1 13.2

12.5 12.5

12.8 11.4

13.1 10.4

13.3 9.4

13.4 7.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 10.6

24.7 8.8

24.8 2.4

25 2

25.1 1.8

25.2 2

25.4 2.2

25.6 2.5

25.7 2.6

25.9 2.7

26.1 2.7

26.2 2.5

26.4 2.6

26.6 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 19.8 1.3

3.6 19.9 1.3

3.6 19.9 1.4

3.6 20 1.4

3.7 20.1 1.4

3.7 20.2 1.4

3.7 20.3 1.4

3.8 20.4 1.4

3.8 20.4 1.5

3.9 20.5 1.5

3.9 20.6 1.5

4 20.6 1.5

4 20.7 1.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 5.7

1.5 1.9

1.5 1

1.5 1.1

1.5 -0.3

1.5 0.6

1.6 2.7

1.6 3

1.6 3.9

1.6 4.1

1.6 3.4

1.6 3.8

1.6 4.1

1.7 4.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7 6.7

7 5.6

7.1 1.9

7.1 1.8

7.1 1.5

7.1 1.6

7.2 1.3

7.2 1.2

7.2 1.3

7.2 1.2

7.3 1.1

7.3 1.2

7.3 1.1

7.3 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 8.3

14.9 7.6

15 4.3

15.1 3.8

15.3 4

15.6 4.3

15.8 5

15.9 5.3

16 4.3

16.1 3.5

16.3 3.4

16.5 3.4

16.6 3.5

16.7 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 7.1

19.5 5.8

19.6 2.6

19.7 2.6

19.9 2.6

20 2.6

20.1 2.7

20.3 2.8

20.5 3

20.7 3.4

20.9 3.7

21.1 3.8

21.2 3.4

21.4 3.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 6.9

25.7 5.7

25.8 2.4

26 2.2

26.1 2.2

26.2 2.1

26.3 1.9

26.4 1.6

26.5 1.3

26.6 1.4

26.7 1.7

26.9 1.9

27 2.1

27.1 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 9

5.9 7.4

5.9 1.9

5.9 1.5

5.9 1.4

6 1.4

6 1.5

6 1.8

6 1.7

6.1 1.9

6.1 2.2

6.2 2.4

6.2 2.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.6 3.8

0.6 7.7

0.6 5.4

0.6 5.8

0.6 2.8

0.6 1.3

0.6 0.2

0.6 0.5

0.6 -0.7

0.6 -0.6

0.6 -0.5

0.6 -0.4

0.6 0.3

13.2 0.4

13.3 1.3

13.4 1.4

13.5 1.7

13.6 1.9

13.6 1.8

13.7 1.9

13.8 1.9

13.8 2

13.9 2.1

14 2.1

14.1 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

342.8 1.9

344.5 1.9

346.3 2

348.3 2.1

350.3 2.2

352.4 2.3

354.7 2.4

357.1 2.5

359.5 2.6

362 2.7

364.5 2.8

367 2.8

369.4 2.8

371.9 2.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

156.7 4.4

158.3 3.6

159.5 4.1

160.7 4.7

161.8 3.3

163 3

164.2 3

165.3 2.9

166.3 2.8

167.4 2.7

168.4 2.5

169.4 2.5

170.5 2.5

171.5 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

3464 1823 1642

3688 1929 1759

4001 2068 1933

4317 2223 2094

4625 2355 2270

4735 2567 2168

4879 2760 2119

5067 2798 2269

5180 2841 2338

5245 2883 2362

5344 2944 2400

5422 2970 2452

5452 2928 2524

5390 2880 2510

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

O cala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only; the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.2 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metros. Real per capita income level is the fourth lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $32,400. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level at $42,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.5 percent, the third highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,043.98 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 134,257 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data).

• An unemployment rate of 7.8% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 10,506 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,725 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.2 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. However, unemployment rate is estimated to average 8.1 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 9.2 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service sector and Education and Health Service sector with 4.3 percent and 2.3 percent average annual growth rate, respectively. None of the sectors will experience negative growth.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Dunellon Council votes to sell fiber optic venture for $1 million • In order to ease the pressure from high debt due to Dunellon’s failed fiber optic Greenlight Communications, the city council took steps to sell the business. • The council voted to accept a memorandum of understanding agreement from Florida Cable Inc. to sell it the Greenlight venture for $1 million, even though this is about $7 million less than the city borrowed to start the company.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala

• The council accepted the deal because prior ones had fallen through, and the city continues to lose money on the venture, to the point that the city is at the edge of declaring a financial emergency with the Florida state authorities. If the deal goes through the city will be able to make its next loan repayment and ideally will renegotiate the loan to make it more affordable. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 4, 2013 Ocala/Marion CEP is partner in SBA ‘Microloan’ Program • Marion County now has a “microloan” program that is aimed at helping small business owners having difficulty getting financing from traditional lenders. • The Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership is joining with underwriters Community Ventures Corp. of Lexington, KY to offer U.S. Small Business Administration loans through the new Ocala Area Microloan Fund.

• These loans are not intended to compete with banks and the small business loans they offer, but to complement them. The loans will range from $1,000 to $50,000 with a maximum term of six years and can be put towards a variety of uses by a business, determined by the U.S. Small Business Administration. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 23, 2013 Commission to consider repealing development grant • Citrapac, a maker of frozen fruit snacks, planned on bringing more than 400 new jobs to Marion, but has put its expansion plans on hold. The expansion was a necessity because of a pending deal with a national food company to introduce one of its products to other U.S. and overseas markets.

• A $225,000 economic development grant to Citrapac Inc. was brought up to consider its repeal as the expansion is no longer on schedule.

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

• Citrapac’s CEO has said the company is still committed to moving its manufacturing operations to Marion sometime next year and plans to reapply for the grants once its plans are finalized. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 18, 2013 Brazilian investor buys office complex on West SR 40 • DRS2 Galaxy, a LLC based in Deerfield Beach, is headed by a Brazilian investor and bought a 50,000-square-foot office complex for $1.05 million. • The investor plans to clean it up and market space in the complex for lease.

• This is part of a dramatic increase in international investment in Marion County that has seen this year. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 7, 2013 Jobless professionals have new networking group in Ocala • Workforce Connection has launched a new networking program, Professional Networking Group (PNG) in Marion County that is specifically for unemployed professionals.

• PNG will provide networking events, a support system for jobless professionals, and offer workshops on topics of interest to job-seekers, such as resumes, interviews, goal-setting, and social media. • The program has already had 105 applicants since launching in early October and at least half of the applicants are already scheduled to go into the program. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 24, 2013

O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

7500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7000.0

6000.0 5500.0 5000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

6500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Ocala Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

10.1 -3.4 3.4 6.7

10.5 3.8 3.3 7.2

11.0 4.7 3.4 7.6

11.4 4.3 3.5 7.9

11.9 4.0 3.7 8.2

12.6 6.2 3.9 8.7

13.3 5.4 4.1 9.2

14.1 6.2 4.4 9.7

15.1 6.9 4.7 10.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 -3.3

9.5 2.1

9.7 2.2

10.0 2.4

10.2 2.9

10.7 4.8

11.2 3.9

11.7 4.5

12.3 5.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

30.5 28.2

31.6 28.7

33.0 29.2

34.1 29.7

35.1 30.2

36.8 31.3

38.1 31.9

39.7 32.7

41.7 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.9 0.3

36.2 0.7

36.9 2.1

37.9 2.6

39.0 3.0

40.4 3.5

41.8 3.5

43.3 3.6

44.8 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

93.1 -8.7

90.9 -2.4

90.3 -0.7

91.7 1.6

94.5 3.0

96.2 1.9

98.5 2.3

101.0 2.5

103.1 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 -19.4

6.4 -3.7

6.4 0.4

6.7 3.7

6.7 0.1

6.8 1.2

6.8 1.1

6.9 0.2

6.8 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

86.5 -7.7

84.5 -2.3

83.9 -0.8

85.0 1.4

87.8 3.2

89.5 1.9

91.7 2.4

94.1 2.7

96.3 2.3

7.3 -24.4

6.3 -13.7

5.7 -9.8

5.3 -5.9

5.5 1.9

5.8 5.8

6.5 11.9

7.2 12.0

7.7 7.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.5 -9.7

20.1 -1.9

20.6 2.4

21.3 3.1

22.1 4.0

22.5 1.7

22.8 1.4

23.2 1.9

23.7 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 14.5 2.5

3.4 14.4 2.4

3.3 14.7 2.6

3.4 14.8 3.1

3.6 15.3 3.2

3.6 15.6 3.3

3.7 15.6 3.4

3.8 15.8 3.5

3.9 15.8 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -12.0

1.5 -9.4

1.6 3.4

1.5 -5.8

1.5 2.6

1.5 -0.2

1.5 0.5

1.6 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.1 -13.4

4.2 -19.1

4.1 -0.4

4.3 3.5

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.6

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 -5.0

7.4 -4.7

7.4 -0.3

7.9 7.3

8.2 4.2

8.5 3.7

9.0 5.6

9.4 4.4

9.8 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.9 -4.4

13.4 4.2

13.8 2.7

14.5 4.8

15.2 5.1

15.5 1.7

15.8 2.1

16.2 2.9

16.7 2.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.0 -3.9

10.1 0.9

10.1 0.5

10.3 2.2

10.8 4.7

11.1 2.6

11.3 1.5

11.4 1.1

11.6 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 -7.7

3.7 1.6

3.5 -5.4

3.1 -10.0

3.2 1.2

3.2 0.0

3.2 0.7

3.2 1.2

3.3 1.7

0.7 1.0

0.9 27.6

0.7 -24.2

0.7 0.0

0.7 -1.4

0.7 5.3

0.7 0.4

0.7 -1.3

0.7 -0.5

16.9 0.3

16.4 -3.0

16.3 -0.7

16.3 0.0

16.4 0.6

16.5 0.9

16.7 1.1

16.9 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

330.9 0.3

331.6 0.2

332.9 0.4

335.5 0.8

338.9 1.0

343.7 1.4

349.6 1.7

356.0 1.8

362.8 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

135.3 -2.1

134.8 -0.4

133.8 -0.7

133.6 -0.1

133.4 -0.2

136.0 1.9

137.9 1.4

139.6 1.2

141.4 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

12.6

13.4

12.0

10.0

8.0

7.9

8.2

8.1

408.2 391.0 17.0

494.3 492.0 2.0

359.1 356.2 3.0

404.5 403.1 1.0

638.3 614.6 24.0

1669.7 1596.1 74.0

3101.1 2923.2 178.0

3590.0 3381.6 208.0

3511.8 3295.6 216.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

O cala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.4 6.8 3.8 8.6

12.6 6.2 3.9 8.7

12.7 6 3.9 8.8

12.9 5.7 4 8.9

13.1 5.5 4.1 9

13.2 5.4 4.1 9.1

13.4 5.3 4.2 9.2

13.6 5.4 4.2 9.3

13.8 5.5 4.3 9.5

14 5.9 4.4 9.7

14.3 6.3 4.4 9.8

14.5 6.8 4.5 10

14.8 6.9 4.6 10.2

15 7 4.6 10.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 5.8

10.7 4.7

10.8 4.6

10.9 4.2

11 3.9

11.1 3.9

11.2 3.8

11.3 3.8

11.4 3.9

11.6 4.2

11.7 4.7

11.9 5.1

12 5.3

12.2 5.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.3 31

36.6 31.2

36.9 31.3

37.2 31.5

37.7 31.7

38 31.9

38.2 32

38.6 32.1

39.1 32.4

39.5 32.6

39.9 32.9

40.4 33.2

41 33.4

41.5 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.8 3.7

40.2 3.5

40.6 3.5

40.9 3.3

41.2 3.5

41.6 3.5

42 3.4

42.3 3.5

42.7 3.6

43.1 3.6

43.5 3.6

43.9 3.6

44.2 3.6

44.6 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

95.5 1.7

96 1.5

96.4 2.2

97 2.1

97.6 2.2

98.1 2.2

98.8 2.4

99.5 2.5

100 2.5

100.6 2.5

101.3 2.5

101.9 2.5

102.4 2.4

102.9 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 -0.6

6.7 0.9

6.8 2.3

6.8 2.2

6.8 1.9

6.8 1.2

6.8 0.7

6.9 0.8

6.9 0.5

6.9 0.4

6.9 0.2

6.9 -0.1

6.8 -0.2

6.8 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

88.8 1.9

89.3 1.6

89.6 2.2

90.2 2.1

90.7 2.2

91.3 2.3

92 2.6

92.6 2.7

93.2 2.7

93.8 2.7

94.4 2.7

95.1 2.7

95.6 2.6

96.1 2.5

5.6 2

5.7 4.3

5.8 7.9

6 9.2

6.2 10.2

6.3 11.5

6.6 12.8

6.8 13.1

7 13.1

7.1 12.5

7.3 11.6

7.5 10.8

7.6 9.7

7.7 8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 2.7

22.4 1.5

22.5 1.6

22.6 1.2

22.7 1.1

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.5

23 1.8

23.1 1.9

23.2 2

23.3 2

23.4 1.8

23.5 1.8

23.6 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.6 15.6 3.2

3.6 15.5 3.3

3.6 15.6 3.3

3.7 15.6 3.4

3.7 15.7 3.4

3.8 15.7 3.5

3.8 15.8 3.5

3.8 15.8 3.6

3.9 15.8 3.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 0.2

1.5 -1.6

1.5 0.2

1.5 0.3

1.5 -1.2

1.5 -0.4

1.5 1.7

1.5 1.9

1.5 2.8

1.5 2.9

1.6 2.2

1.6 2.6

1.6 2.9

1.6 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 0

4.3 -0.2

4.3 1.2

4.3 1

4.3 0.7

4.3 0.8

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.3

4.3 0.2

4.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 2.9

8.5 2.8

8.6 4.7

8.7 4.6

8.8 5.1

9 5.3

9.1 5.9

9.2 6.1

9.3 5.1

9.3 4.3

9.5 4.1

9.6 4

9.7 4

15.3 1.6

15.4 0.8

15.5 2.2

15.6 2.2

15.7 2

15.8 2.1

15.9 2.2

16 2.5

16.2 2.8

16.3 3.1

16.4 3.2

16.5 2.8

16.6 2.7

11 3.8

11.1 2.8

11.1 2.1

11.2 1.9

11.2 1.8

11.3 1.6

11.3 1.4

11.3 1.1

11.3 0.9

11.4 1

11.4 1.2

11.5 1.4

11.5 1.6

11.6 1.6

3.2 -1.5

3.2 -0.2

3.2 1.2

3.2 0.7

3.2 0.6

3.2 0.9

3.2 1.2

3.3 1.3

3.3 1.6

3.3 1.7

0.7 2.4

0.7 9

0.7 4.8

0.7 5.1

0.7 2.1

0.7 0.5

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.5

16.4 0.5

16.4 0.7

16.4 0.6

16.5 0.6

16.5 0.8

16.6 1

16.6 0.9

16.7 1

16.7 1.1

16.8 1.1

16.9 1.2

16.9 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

341.7 1.3

343 1.4

344.3 1.4

345.8 1.5

347.3 1.6

348.9 1.7

350.4 1.8

351.9 1.8

353.5 1.8

355.2 1.8

356.8 1.8

358.6 1.9

360.2 1.9

362 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

135 0.8

135.9 1.8

136.3 2.3

136.7 2.9

137.2 1.6

137.6 1.3

138.1 1.4

138.5 1.3

139 1.3

139.4 1.3

139.8 1.2

140.2 1.2

140.7 1.2

141.2 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.8

7.9

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.2

8.1

1119 1073 47

1524 1466 58

1842 1761 81

2194 2084 109

2545 2396 149

2976 2807 169

3413 3221 193

3470 3269 201

3528 3322 207

3563 3357 206

3623 3415 208

3645 3433 213

3593 3375 218

3516 3300 216

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan d o – K issimmee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at an average rate of 6.1 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $33,800. Average annual wage growth will be 2.8 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage will be at a level of $48,000. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.0 percent, the second highest of the studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 107,914.42 million dollars, the third highest of the MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.6 percent annually, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.7 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 10.3 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent, and the Education and Health Services sector at 2.8 percent. None of the sectors will experience negative growth.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,189,722 for 2012 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 275,010 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 429,169 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). A civilian labor force of 1,149,963 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data). An unemployment rate of 6.6% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 76,073 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 64,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 20,949 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 16,000 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 10,388 • Hilton Hotels Corp – 9,595 • Orange County Government – 7,654 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,000 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,022 Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Defense companies land $500M in deals

• Before the government shutdown, the Pentagon awarded contracts to Central Florida defense contractors that are worth more than $500 million. • The defense companies are not sure how much of the actual awards will reach them because of the government shutdown.

• Lockheed Martin Corp. received the most new contracts. Lockheeds’s Hellfire Systems LLC in Orlando received the largest pre-shutdown contract. Source: Orlando Sentinel, October 13, 2013

O r lan d o – K issimmee

Drop-in center for homeless good first step toward emergency shelter • Lake County is working to create a drop-in center for the homeless. No emergency shelters exist in the county as of now. • The Lake Community Foundation and the LifeStream Behavioral Center are working together to create a new drop-in center for the homeless.

• The center will provide meals, laundry, shower, and an address to use for job applications. Some people are hesitant about a drop-in center because it may attract more homeless people, but a study shows that it will not. Source: Orlando Sentinel, December 1, 2013 Puerto Rican expo thrills thousands

• Kissimmee held a three-day expo and parade at the Silver Spurs Arena for spectators to enjoy the Puerto Rican culture.

• The Renaissance Planning Group of Orlando was hired by county commissioners to look at the future development in East Altamonte around the station. Source: Orlando Sentinel, December 1, 2013 Winter Park Construction awarded Crescent Central Station contract • Crescent Communities chose Winter Park Construction to build the Crescent Central Station in downtown Orlando.

• The development will cost $39 million with six stories and 279 units.

• The building will begin to pre-lease by fall of 2014. It will include five stories of multi-family units and ground-level retail.

• The future phases will include a hotel and office buildings. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 26, 2013

• The event is in its third year and more than 40,000 people were expected during the three days. One-third of the 900,000 Puerto Ricans in Florida live in Central Florida.

• A group of volunteers with the nonprofit organization Cultural Center of Puerto Rico in Kissimmee organized the event. Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 2, 2013 East Altamonte residents keep wary on new SunRail station • The SunRail commuter trains hopes to push economic growth around the SunRail stations, but this will also raise property values.

• Residents hope the station will bring new jobs, but are nervous about the real estate values and gentrification. • Poorer residents are worried that they may be forced out of their homes. The president of South Seminole Community Association for Progress shares the same concerns.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.8

1.6

1.8

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

110000.0

70000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

12.0% 9.0%

1100.0

6.0%

1050.0

3.0%

1000.0

0.0%

950.0

-3.0%

900.0

-6.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

1150.0

1.4

80000.0

4.0%

850.0

1.2

90000.0

6.0%

1200.0

100000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

-9.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

71.0 -4.9 42.0 29.1

73.8 3.9 42.3 31.5

77.6 5.1 43.8 33.8

81.3 4.8 46.0 35.3

84.3 3.6 47.8 36.4

89.4 6.1 50.3 39.1

94.4 5.6 53.1 41.3

100.2 6.1 56.1 44.1

106.8 6.6 59.1 47.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

65.5 -4.8

67.0 2.2

68.8 2.7

70.8 2.9

72.5 2.5

76.0 4.7

79.0 4.1

82.6 4.4

86.7 5.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.6 31.0

34.4 31.2

35.6 31.5

36.5 31.7

37.0 31.8

38.4 32.7

39.8 33.3

41.4 34.1

43.3 35.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.5 -0.7

42.1 1.3

43.0 2.1

44.1 2.6

44.9 1.8

46.0 2.4

47.3 2.9

48.7 2.9

50.2 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1006.0 -6.2

1001.3 -0.5

1015.1 1.4

1039.8 2.4

1060.9 2.0

1089.1 2.7

1118.2 2.7

1147.1 2.6

1174.3 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

38.7 -9.6

38.0 -1.8

38.0 0.1

38.0 -0.1

37.6 -1.1

38.3 2.0

38.9 1.4

39.0 0.4

38.9 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

967.3 -6.1

963.3 -0.4

977.0 1.4

1001.8 2.5

1023.4 2.2

1050.7 2.7

1079.3 2.7

1108.1 2.7

1135.4 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

54.5 -25.0

47.7 -12.5

45.2 -5.2

45.9 1.5

45.7 -0.2

49.9 9.0

56.2 12.8

63.1 12.1

67.7 7.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

186.0 -7.4

186.0 0.0

192.0 3.2

197.5 2.9

202.3 2.4

207.1 2.4

211.3 2.1

216.3 2.3

221.1 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

40.4 115.5 30.1

38.4 117.9 29.7

38.5 123.3 30.2

39.0 127.5 31.0

39.4 131.1 31.7

40.1 134.0 32.5

41.5 135.0 33.9

43.1 136.3 35.4

44.6 137.2 36.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.8 -5.5

23.8 -4.0

24.0 0.9

23.6 -1.8

23.3 -1.3

23.5 1.2

23.8 0.9

24.5 2.9

25.2 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

65.9 -5.3

65.1 -1.1

65.9 1.1

66.8 1.5

68.2 2.0

68.5 0.6

68.9 0.6

69.3 0.6

69.5 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

164.1 -7.0

161.1 -1.8

161.9 0.5

169.4 4.6

172.6 1.9

180.4 4.5

188.8 4.7

195.2 3.4

201.2 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

118.4 1.7

120.9 2.0

123.5 2.2

127.9 3.5

132.3 3.4

135.2 2.2

138.8 2.7

143.7 3.5

148.0 3.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

190.1 -4.7

195.6 2.9

203.5 4.1

210.3 3.3

217.6 3.5

222.6 2.3

226.2 1.6

229.1 1.3

233.3 1.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.0 -6.7

47.5 -1.0

46.0 -3.2

44.4 -3.5

44.5 0.4

45.1 1.2

45.5 0.9

46.0 1.2

46.8 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 2.6

12.8 5.7

12.0 -6.0

12.3 2.6

12.2 -1.1

12.5 3.0

12.6 0.7

12.5 -0.9

12.5 -0.1

103.6 -1.5

102.9 -0.7

103.1 0.2

103.8 0.6

104.7 0.9

105.9 1.1

107.1 1.1

108.4 1.2

110.1 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2115.7 1.2

2144.6 1.4

2181.9 1.7

2229.9 2.2

2278.6 2.2

2325.6 2.1

2373.7 2.1

2421.2 2.0

2469.0 2.0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1107.3 -1.0

1117.4 0.9

1129.2 1.1

1147.7 1.6

1155.4 0.7

1190.4 3.0

1215.5 2.1

1239.2 1.9

1259.6 1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.3

11.2

10.2

8.4

6.7

6.1

5.8

5.6

5.5

4490.5 3762.7 728.0

5003.2 4410.0 593.0

5728.2 4481.3 1247.0

10778.8 7196.8 3582.0

15724.7 9800.7 5924.0

17186.0 12557.6 4628.0

21489.5 15715.4 5774.0

24030.4 17231.3 6799.0

24046.1 16849.3 7197.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issimmee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

87.6 6.3 49.2 38.3

88.8 6.1 49.9 38.8

90 6 50.6 39.4

91.2 5.9 51.3 39.9

92.6 5.8 52 40.6

93.8 5.7 52.7 41.1

95 5.6 53.5 41.5

96.2 5.6 54.2 42

97.9 5.7 54.9 42.9

99.3 5.9 55.7 43.7

100.9 6.3 56.4 44.5

102.6 6.6 57.2 45.4

104.4 6.6 58 46.4

106 6.7 58.7 47.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

74.9 5.3

75.6 4.6

76.3 4.7

77.1 4.3

78 4.2

78.7 4.1

79.4 4

80.1 4

81.1 4

82 4.2

83 4.6

84.1 5

85.2 5

86.2 5.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38 32.4

38.3 32.6

38.6 32.7

38.9 32.9

39.3 33.1

39.6 33.2

39.9 33.4

40.2 33.5

40.7 33.7

41.1 33.9

41.6 34.2

42.1 34.5

42.6 34.8

43 35

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.4 1.8

45.8 2.1

46.1 2.8

46.4 2.8

46.8 3

47.1 2.9

47.5 2.9

47.8 2.9

48.2 3

48.5 2.9

48.9 2.9

49.2 2.9

49.6 2.9

50 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1079.2 2.7

1085.8 2.8

1092 2.6

1099.2 2.5

1106.9 2.6

1114.1 2.6

1121.9 2.7

1129.8 2.8

1136.3 2.7

1143.2 2.6

1150.4 2.5

1158.4 2.5

1164.9 2.5

1171.2 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

37.9 0.8

38.2 2.3

38.6 2.5

38.6 2.4

38.8 2.3

38.8 1.5

38.9 0.8

39 0.9

39 0.7

39 0.5

39 0.3

39 0

39 -0.2

38.9 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1041.3 2.8

1047.6 2.9

1053.5 2.6

1060.5 2.5

1068.2 2.6

1075.3 2.6

1083.1 2.8

1090.8 2.9

1097.3 2.7

1104.2 2.7

1111.4 2.6

1119.4 2.6

1125.9 2.6

1132.3 2.5

48.2 8.5

49.2 10.4

50.4 8.6

51.6 8.7

53.3 10.5

55.2 12.2

57.3 13.6

59.2 14.6

60.9 14.1

62.4 13

63.7 11.1

65.4 10.6

66.5 9.2

67.4 8.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

205.7 3.1

206.5 2.4

207.4 2.2

208.6 1.9

209.6 1.9

210.5 1.9

211.8 2.1

213.4 2.3

214.5 2.4

215.7 2.5

216.9 2.4

218.1 2.2

219.2 2.2

220.5 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

39.7 133.8 32

40 133.9 32.3

40.3 134 32.6

40.6 134.4 33

41 134.4 33.4

41.3 134.6 33.7

41.7 135.2 34.1

42.1 135.8 34.5

42.5 135.9 34.8

42.9 136.1 35.2

43.2 136.4 35.5

43.6 136.6 35.9

44 136.7 36.2

44.4 137.1 36.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 1.5

23.6 1.3

23.5 0.9

23.6 1

23.5 -0.4

23.6 0.2

23.9 2

24.1 2

24.2 3.1

24.3 3.2

24.5 2.4

24.7 2.8

25 3.2

25.1 3.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

68.5 1.5

68.4 -0.1

68.6 0.4

68.8 0.5

68.9 0.6

68.9 0.7

69 0.5

69 0.4

69.2 0.5

69.3 0.6

69.5 0.6

69.5 0.5

69.5 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

177.4 4.3

179.6 5

181.3 4.3

183.3 4.4

185.8 4.8

188 4.7

189.9 4.8

191.5 4.4

192.6 3.6

194 3.2

196 3.2

198 3.4

199.4 3.5

200.5 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

134.2 2.1

134.9 2.4

135.4 2.2

136.2 2.1

137.2 2.3

138.3 2.5

139.3 2.8

140.4 3.1

141.8 3.3

143.3 3.6

144.3 3.6

145.5 3.7

146.3 3.2

147.5 3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

220.9 2

222 2.6

223 2.4

224.3 2.1

225.3 2

225.9 1.7

226.4 1.5

227.4 1.4

227.9 1.1

228.5 1.2

229.5 1.4

230.6 1.4

231.6 1.6

232.7 1.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 0.9

45 1.5

45.2 1.4

45.2 1

45.3 0.9

45.4 0.9

45.5 0.8

45.7 1

45.8 1.1

46 1.2

46.1 1.2

46.2 1.3

46.5 1.4

46.7 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 -0.3

12.5 2.2

12.6 4.9

12.6 5.3

12.7 2.3

12.6 0.8

12.6 -0.3

12.6 0.1

12.5 -1.1

12.5 -1

12.5 -0.8

12.5 -0.7

12.5 -0.1

105.6 2

105.8 1.1

106 0.7

106.3 0.8

106.6 1

106.9 1.1

107.3 1.2

107.6 1.2

107.9 1.2

108.3 1.2

108.6 1.2

109 1.3

109.4 1.4

109.8 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2307.8 2.1

2319.6 2

2331.7 2.1

2343.6 2.1

2355.6 2.1

2367.5 2.1

2379.8 2.1

2391.9 2.1

2403.8 2

2415.5 2

2427 2

2438.5 1.9

2450.8 2

2463 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1178.7 2.3

1188.4 2.9

1194.4 3.2

1200.2 3.7

1205.7 2.3

1212.1 2

1219 2.1

1225.3 2.1

1230.9 2.1

1236.5 2

1242 1.9

1247.5 1.8

1252.5 1.8

1257.2 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

16075 11234 4841

16822 12376 4446

17440 12944 4496

18407 13677 4730

19591 14283 5308

20901 15420 5480

22418 16491 5927

23048 16667 6381

23555 16903 6652

23853 17119 6734

24238 17410 6828

24477 17494 6982

24452 17236 7216

24031 16865 7167

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.5 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $36,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, the highest of the studied areas. Average annual wage levels should be at $54,100, the highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth is expected to be an average of 0.9 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 17,785.10 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 267,490 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data).

• An unemployment rate of 7.4% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 20,053 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Brevard County School Board – 9,140 • Health First – 6,350

• Harris Corporation – 6,130

• United Space Alliance, LLC – 3,830

• Brevard County Board of County Comm. – 2,390 • Department of Defense – 2,260

• Health Management Associates – 2,220 • NASA – 2,210

• Brevard Community College – 1,580 • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,500 • DRS INC – 1,440

• Northrup Grumman – 1,400

• Florida Institute of Technology – 1,190 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.7 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 6.8 percent.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 9.5 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 3.7 percent, followed by the Education and Health Services sector at 1.7 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -0.6 percent annually.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Seminole County judge to preside over BlueWare trials • A judge from Seminole County — not Brevard — will preside over the trials of former Brevard County Clerk of Courts Mitch Needelman and two BlueWare executives. • Seminole County Judge Marlene Alva has taken over the cases of Needelman, BlueWare Chief Executive Officer Rose Harr and Matt Dupree, a corporate vice president. • Each defendant faces multiple felony charges related to the awarding of an $8.52 million contract last year to electronically scan court documents. • Prosecutors say the trio schemed to steer the scanning contract to a BlueWare-affiliated company in return for illegal contributions to Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Needelman’s 2012 unsuccessful re-election campaign. Source: Florida Today, December 9, 2013 Size of Brevard school could become factor in future closures • If a half-cent sales tax does not pass next November, the size of a school could be a factor in whether it will be considered for closure. • On November 19th, Brevard School Board members briefly discussed proposed changes to a policy governing the criteria for closing a school. • One possible change, to allow any school with 500 or fewer students to be considered, sparked the ire of multiple school board members. That makes it likely that the proposed language be adjusted in some way. • “The number should not be relevant,” School Board Member Andy Ziegler said after the board meeting. “The proper analysis should be one of efficiency.” • They’ve promised to make a list of possible school closures available before next November. Revisiting the policy is the first step. Source: Florida Today, November 20, 2013 Neglected city roads getting TLC • Long cracks, uneven gaps and missing asphalt plague streets in the oldest sections of the city. • They were neglected when property values and tax revenue dropped, and the city scrambled to balance its budget. • The city plans to resurface more than a mile of streets annually with federal money initially intended to improve the exteriors of residences and commercial buildings. • More than $157,000 went unspent in a facade program that had only one applicant qualify. • The city will use that money to resurface more than 6 miles of streets that haven’t been repaved in 30 years. Source: Florida Today, December 1, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Lighting Science ranks on Deloitte’s Technology Fast 500 • Lighting Science Corp., a designer and manufacturer of LED lighting products, has been ranked No. 204 on Deloitte’s Technology Fast 500, a ranking of the 500 fastest growing technology, media, telecommunications, life sciences and clean technology companies in North America. • Lighting Science, headquartered in Satellite Beach, grew 512 percent over the past five years and has established itself as the leader in health and wellness lighting technology and solutions. • Its patented LED technology was developed for NASA, the International Space Station and the U.S. South Pole Station. • In a prepared statement, Lighting Science’s Vice President, Sean Tegart, credits engineering innovation with the company’s 512 percent revenue growth. “Our engineers push the boundaries of lighting to create truly technology-advanced products for an improved quality of life,” Tegart said. Source: Florida Today, December 2, 2013 Goodwill project is built almost entirely of domestic materials • A 23,000-square-foot Goodwill Industries store and job center, under construction in West Melbourne, is laying a patriotic claim that nearly all of its components are made in the United States. The store at 2245 Coastal Lane, just south of U.S. 192, is scheduled to open next spring. • It’s the third “All USA” Goodwill store in Central Florida and the first in Brevard County. • Leading the effort is the Williams Company, a 93-year-old construction business based in Orlando. • “The concept was pretty simple, that if every builder would just increase their Americanmade products by 5 percent, it would create 220,000 jobs in America,” said Chris Rollins, chief operating officer. Source: Florida Today, November 30, 2013

P alm B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M elbou r ne â&#x20AC;&#x201C; T itus v ille Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.5 -4.5 9.2 10.3

19.9 2.2 9.3 10.7

20.7 3.6 9.3 11.3

21.1 2.3 9.4 11.7

21.8 3.2 9.9 12.0

23.0 5.6 10.4 12.6

24.2 4.8 11.0 13.1

25.5 5.5 11.6 13.9

27.0 6.1 12.2 14.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.0 -4.4

18.1 0.5

18.3 1.2

18.4 0.4

18.8 2.0

19.6 4.3

20.2 3.2

21.0 3.8

21.9 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.0 33.2

36.7 33.3

37.9 33.6

38.6 33.6

39.5 34.0

41.3 35.1

42.8 35.9

44.8 36.9

47.1 38.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.1 2.1

47.0 1.9

47.3 0.7

47.6 0.7

49.2 3.3

51.2 4.1

53.1 3.7

55.0 3.7

57.0 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.7 -5.1

194.9 -0.9

194.6 -0.1

195.2 0.3

197.7 1.3

201.0 1.7

204.6 1.8

208.4 1.8

211.5 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 -8.0

20.5 -6.0

20.8 1.1

20.9 0.9

20.7 -1.2

21.1 1.8

21.4 1.4

21.6 1.0

21.6 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

174.8 -4.8

174.3 -0.3

173.9 -0.3

174.3 0.2

177.0 1.6

179.9 1.6

183.2 1.9

186.8 1.9

189.8 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 -23.8

8.7 -12.5

8.1 -5.8

8.4 2.7

8.9 6.3

9.6 8.0

10.7 11.6

12.0 11.7

12.8 6.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.0 -6.9

32.7 -1.0

34.0 4.1

34.6 1.5

34.7 0.4

34.8 0.4

35.0 0.5

35.4 1.1

35.7 1.0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 24.9 2.9

5.0 24.6 3.0

5.2 25.1 3.8

5.1 25.5 4.0

5.1 25.6 4.0

5.2 25.5 4.1

5.4 25.4 4.2

5.6 25.3 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 4.6

2.4 -8.9

2.2 -9.0

2.1 -3.4

2.1 -1.9

2.1 -0.4

2.1 0.5

2.1 2.9

2.2 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 -4.9

7.6 -3.6

7.5 -1.4

7.6 1.4

7.7 0.9

7.7 0.5

7.7 0.1

7.7 -0.1

7.7 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.3 -6.4

32.5 0.6

31.6 -2.8

29.6 -6.5

30.9 4.6

32.4 4.6

33.8 4.5

34.8 3.0

35.8 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.2 1.8

32.2 3.3

32.6 1.1

32.7 0.4

33.2 1.3

33.5 1.0

34.0 1.4

34.7 2.2

35.4 2.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 -4.0

21.2 -0.5

21.5 1.6

23.0 6.5

23.1 0.8

23.2 0.1

23.3 0.5

23.3 0.2

23.5 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 -5.7

7.6 2.7

7.8 2.9

8.0 2.5

8.2 1.6

8.2 0.6

8.2 -0.1

8.3 0.4

8.3 0.8

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.3

6.4 -5.3

6.2 -2.3

6.1 -1.8

6.2 2.1

6.2 -0.6

6.1 -2.3

6.0 -1.5

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.9

22.0 -2.8

22.1 0.5

22.1 0.1

22.1 0.2

22.2 0.2

22.3 0.5

22.5 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

542.5 0.1

544.0 0.3

544.9 0.2

547.8 0.5

552.6 0.9

558.4 1.1

563.8 0.9

568.7 0.9

573.8 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

267.0 -0.6

267.7 0.3

268.9 0.5

268.3 -0.2

266.5 -0.7

270.2 1.4

272.7 0.9

274.7 0.7

276.7 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.2

11.1

10.8

9.2

7.6

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.6

974.5 868.5 106.0

1081.6 994.9 87.0

968.2 843.1 125.0

1111.3 1107.0 4.0

1259.7 1328.0 -68.0

2491.9 2328.9 163.0

4457.0 3599.2 858.0

5198.7 4091.7 1107.0

5151.6 4004.2 1147.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.7 6.5 10.2 12.4

22.9 5.8 10.4 12.6

23.2 5.3 10.5 12.7

23.4 5.1 10.6 12.8

23.8 4.8 10.8 13

24 4.8 10.9 13.1

24.3 4.7 11.1 13.2

24.6 4.9 11.2 13.3

24.9 5 11.4 13.5

25.3 5.3 11.5 13.7

25.6 5.7 11.7 13.9

26 6.1 11.9 14.2

26.5 6.1 12 14.5

26.8 6.2 12.1 14.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 5.5

19.5 4.3

19.7 3.9

19.8 3.6

20 3.3

20.1 3.3

20.3 3.2

20.4 3.3

20.7 3.3

20.9 3.6

21.1 4

21.4 4.4

21.6 4.5

21.8 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.7 34.8

41.1 35

41.5 35.2

41.8 35.3

42.3 35.6

42.6 35.8

43 35.9

43.4 36.1

44 36.5

44.5 36.7

45 37.1

45.7 37.4

46.3 37.8

46.8 38.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.4 5

51 4

51.4 3.6

51.9 3.7

52.3 3.8

52.8 3.7

53.3 3.6

53.8 3.7

54.3 3.8

54.8 3.7

55.3 3.7

55.8 3.7

56.3 3.6

56.8 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

199.8 1.6

200.6 1.6

201.3 1.8

202.1 1.7

203.1 1.6

204.1 1.7

205.2 1.9

206.2 2

207 1.9

207.8 1.8

208.8 1.8

209.8 1.8

210.5 1.7

211.2 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.9 1.4

21 1.9

21.1 2.1

21.2 2

21.3 1.6

21.3 1.4

21.4 1.3

21.5 1.5

21.5 1.4

21.6 1.1

21.6 0.9

21.6 0.6

21.7 0.5

21.6 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

178.9 1.6

179.6 1.6

180.2 1.8

180.9 1.6

181.8 1.6

182.7 1.7

183.7 2

184.7 2.1

185.4 2

186.2 1.9

187.2 1.9

188.2 1.9

188.9 1.9

189.6 1.8

9.3 7.5

9.5 7.7

9.7 7.7

10 9

10.2 9.9

10.5 11.2

10.9 12.4

11.2 12.8

11.5 12.8

11.8 12.3

12.1 11.3

12.4 10.6

12.6 9.5

12.8 7.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

34.8 -0.3

34.8 0.9

34.8 0.8

34.9 0.2

34.9 0.3

35 0.5

35.2 0.8

35.2 1

35.3 1.2

35.4 1.2

35.5 1

35.6 1.1

35.7 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.1 25.7 3.9

5.1 25.6 4

5.2 25.5 4.1

5.3 25.5 4.1

5.3 25.5 4.2

5.4 25.5 4.2

5.4 25.4 4.2

5.5 25.4 4.3

5.6 25.3 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 -2.1

2.1 -0.3

2.1 0.1

2.1 0.9

2.1 -0.9

2.1 -0.1

2.1 1.5

2.1 2.5

2.1 3

2.1 2.7

2.2 3.2

2.2 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 0.6

7.7 0

7.7 0.7

7.8 0.5

7.7 0.2

7.7 0.3

7.7 0

7.7 -0.1

7.7 0.1

7.7 0

7.7 -0.2

7.7 -0.3

7.7 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32 7.2

32.3 3.9

32.5 3.9

32.8 3.6

33.2 3.9

33.6 4.2

34 4.8

34.4 4.9

34.5 4

34.7 3

35 2.7

35.3 2.6

35.5 2.7

35.7 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 0.6

33.5 0.7

33.5 1.4

33.7 1.4

33.8 1.3

33.9 1.4

34 1.5

34.2 1.6

34.4 1.8

34.7 2.1

34.9 2.4

35.1 2.6

35.1 2.1

35.4 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 -1.6

23.1 0.5

23.2 1

23.2 0.7

23.3 0.8

23.3 0.6

23.3 0.4

23.3 0.1

23.3 0

23.3 0.2

23.4 0.4

23.4 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 1.5

8.2 1

8.2 0.2

8.2 -0.1

8.2 -0.2

8.2 -0.1

8.2 0.2

8.2 0.1

8.2 0.4

8.3 0.5

8.3 0.7

8.3 0.9

8.3 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 0.5

6.3 2

6.3 3.1

6.2 3

6.3 1

6.2 -0.5

6.2 -1.7

6.2 -1.3

6.1 -2.5

6.1 -2.4

6.1 -2.3

6 -2.2

6 -1.4

6 -1.5

22.1 0.5

22.2 0.3

22.1 0

22.2 0

22.2 0.2

22.2 0.3

22.3 0.4

22.3 0.5

22.4 0.6

22.5 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

556.4 1.1

557.8 1.1

559.1 1

560.4 1

561.8 1

563.2 1

564.4 0.9

565.6 0.9

566.8 0.9

568.1 0.9

569.3 0.9

570.6 0.9

571.8 0.9

573.1 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

268.9 0.5

270.1 1.1

270.6 1.7

271.2 2.2

271.7 1

272.4 0.8

273.1 0.9

273.6 0.9

274 0.8

274.5 0.8

274.9 0.7

275.4 0.6

275.9 0.7

276.5 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

1831 1774 57

2273 2227 47

2675 2502 173

3188 2812 376

3710 3077 633

4271 3490 781

4846 3885 961

5002 3946 1056

5103 4011 1093

5159 4060 1099

5243 4137 1106

5290 4159 1130

5249 4089 1160

5150 4006 1144

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.9 percent each year, the third lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $34,400. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.1 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $45,900. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.8 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 13,195.42 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 299,114 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 216,362 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data).

• An unemployment rate of 6.4% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 13,885 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is expected to average 1.4 percent each year, and the unemployment rate will average 6.0 percent.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 8.8 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follow with an average growth rate of 3.3 percent. The Financial and the Federal Government sectors are expected to experience negative growth with an average annual growth rate -0.2 and -0.6 percent respectively.

• Local Government – 13,857

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• State Government – 5,253

Southwest’s arrival a ‘terrific win’ for area: Airline seen as critical advantage in our ability to recruit industries

• Federal Government – 7,162 • Escambia County School System – 6,000 • Baptist Health Care – 5,826

• Santa Rosa School District – 2,615

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 2,353

• Sacred Heart Health System – 2,310 • University of West Florida– 1,922 • Lakeview Center – 1,900

Sources: Escambia County School District, Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Enterprise Florida

• • Pensacola’s political and business leaders have been courting Southwest Airlines for two decades, with the conviction that luring the brand to the city would raise its national profile and boost its economy. They have finally succeeded and Southwest’s first regularly scheduled flight touched down this past Sunday. • • In gaining Southwest the city lost Airtran, which was bought in 2011 by Southwest. Southwest, the larger airline, brings an increase of 25% in the seats that were offered by Airtran. • Having Southwest in Pensacola is good for both large and small local businesses, the

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

military, and will present more flight options to snowbirds looking to come to Pensacola during the winter. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 4, 2013 A best-kept Pensacola tech secret no more: Pensacola firm wins huge state software contract • CTS America, a successful high-tech company, has kept a deliberately low profile over the last 14 years, but that is over after winning a highly competitive $30 million software contract with the state of Florida.

• Now partnered with a relatively large international company, CTS America will be able to go after similar contracts in three or four other states.

• During the past decade, CTS has increased its customer base and now serves law enforcement agencies in Alabama, Montana, South Carolina, and Georgia. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 2, 2013 State PSC hears Gulf Power Co. rate request today • Today the Florida Public Service Commission will hear a request by Gulf Power Co. to okay an agreement with consumer groups to raise residential rates by $4.06 per 1,000 kilowatt hour.

• Gulf Power says the rate increase is in the public interest and is necessary to pay for a long-term, major capital improvement project to upgrade and replace the company’s aging transmission lines and substations. • If approved by PSC, the new rates will go into effect in 2014 and residential rates for 1,000 kilowatt hours will increase from the current $127.94 to $132. Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 2, 2013

Building bonanza may be coming to nine mile area: Request to rezone 70 acres of land for 570 housing units goes before board • University of West Florida administrators are clamoring for more development and increased enrollment and to the northwest, the expanding Navy Federal campus and a potentially enormous proposed commerce park could bring thousands of new jobs to the region. In the middle of this expanding growth, a new development promises to provide housing for these future students and workers. • Smart Living LLC plans to construct some 570 single and multifamily units on 70 acres of land. • The deal is contingent on rezoning from the land’s current recreational use to residential. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 23, 2013 I-10 Expansion a boon and bane for businesses: Businesses affected by roadwork worry about lost profits • The Florida Department of Transportation is beginning a $43 million project to expand a stretch of Interstate 10 to six lanes. There will also be additional lighting, storm retention ponds, and sound walls.

• The improvements are all for the better, but the two years of roadwork my cause problems for businesses that rely on customers being able to stop in, gas up, and chow down during their drive. • The Department of Transportation will do all it can to ensure customers always have access to the businesses in the affected areas, but some new accesses will permanently be less convenient. Business from the construction workers has and is expected to partially offset lost business. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 22, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P ass â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r ent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

14000.0

8.0%

12500.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0%

11500.0

175.0

10500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0% -2.0%

155.0

(Millions 2000 $)

6.0%

170.0

150.0

1.6

11000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.4

13500.0 13000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.2 -0.5 6.8 8.4

15.6 2.6 6.9 8.7

16.5 5.7 7.1 9.4

17.1 3.7 7.3 9.8

17.5 2.6 7.6 9.9

18.3 4.7 7.9 10.5

19.1 4.4 8.2 10.9

20.1 5.0 8.6 11.5

21.2 5.6 9.0 12.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.0 -0.4

14.1 0.9

14.6 3.2

14.9 1.8

15.1 1.5

15.6 3.4

16.0 2.8

16.6 3.4

17.2 4.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.0 31.3

34.5 31.3

36.1 32.0

37.0 32.2

37.6 32.4

39.1 33.2

40.5 33.9

42.2 34.8

44.1 35.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.7 2.7

39.7 -0.2

40.6 2.5

41.6 2.3

42.5 2.3

43.8 2.9

45.1 3.0

46.5 3.1

48.0 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

157.2 -4.9

159.3 1.4

161.1 1.1

162.0 0.5

164.1 1.3

165.9 1.0

168.5 1.6

171.4 1.7

173.8 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.6

5.5 2.6

5.5 0.1

5.6 0.6

5.6 0.5

5.6 0.9

5.6 -0.2

5.6 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.8 -4.5

153.9 1.4

155.6 1.1

156.5 0.6

158.6 1.4

160.3 1.1

162.9 1.6

165.8 1.8

168.2 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 -16.2

10.6 -0.6

9.8 -6.7

9.5 -3.4

9.5 0.4

10.1 6.1

11.3 11.2

12.5 11.3

13.3 6.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 -6.8

29.4 -2.4

29.8 1.3

30.0 0.9

31.6 5.2

31.8 0.7

32.0 0.5

32.3 1.0

32.6 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.1 20.2 4.1

4.9 20.8 4.1

4.9 21.1 4.0

5.0 22.6 4.0

5.0 22.8 4.0

5.1 22.7 4.1

5.2 22.7 4.2

5.4 22.6 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.0 -7.2

3.1 1.7

2.7 -12.5

2.3 -13.3

2.4 1.3

2.4 0.1

2.5 2.4

2.5 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.8 -2.8

8.7 -1.1

8.7 0.0

8.9 2.9

9.2 3.3

9.3 0.3

9.3 -0.1

9.2 -0.2

9.2 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 -3.6

19.7 6.7

21.1 7.1

21.5 2.2

20.7 -3.7

21.2 2.1

22.1 4.7

22.9 3.5

23.6 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 -1.1

26.7 3.7

27.2 2.0

27.5 1.0

28.4 3.3

28.6 0.5

28.9 1.0

29.4 1.8

29.8 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 -1.8

18.1 2.8

19.2 6.4

19.6 1.7

19.9 1.7

20.0 0.8

20.2 0.5

20.2 0.3

20.4 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 -6.4

8.8 -3.3

8.6 -2.4

8.5 -0.4

8.5 0.4

8.5 0.0

8.6 0.6

8.7 1.0

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.3

6.9 -4.7

6.8 -0.9

6.5 -3.9

6.7 2.0

6.6 -0.7

6.5 -2.4

6.4 -1.5

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -0.8

21.7 0.4

21.8 0.4

21.7 -0.3

21.7 -0.1

21.7 0.0

21.7 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

447.4 0.4

451.7 1.0

456.3 1.0

461.8 1.2

465.9 0.9

469.4 0.8

472.7 0.7

476.9 0.9

481.4 1.0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

207.4 -0.4

211.5 2.0

214.9 1.6

215.2 0.2

215.2 0.0

219.1 1.8

221.6 1.1

223.1 0.7

224.2 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.4

9.9

9.4

8.1

6.7

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

1035.5 954.7 81.0

1819.2 1369.2 450.0

1195.2 1194.2 1.0

1473.5 1457.4 16.0

1733.3 1710.3 23.0

1897.9 1805.5 92.0

2275.0 2038.7 236.0

2450.4 2170.3 280.0

2382.3 2105.8 277.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.1 5 7.7 10.3

18.3 4.7 7.8 10.4

18.4 4.7 7.9 10.5

18.6 4.6 8 10.6

18.9 4.4 8.1 10.8

19 4.3 8.2 10.9

19.2 4.3 8.3 11

19.4 4.5 8.4 11.1

19.7 4.5 8.5 11.3

20 4.9 8.6 11.4

20.2 5.2 8.7 11.6

20.5 5.6 8.8 11.8

20.8 5.6 8.9 12

21.1 5.7 8.9 12.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 4

15.5 3.2

15.6 3.3

15.7 3.1

15.9 2.8

16 2.8

16.1 2.8

16.2 2.9

16.3 2.9

16.5 3.2

16.6 3.6

16.8 3.9

17 4

17.2 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.6 33

38.9 33.1

39.2 33.3

39.5 33.4

40 33.7

40.3 33.8

40.6 34

41 34.1

41.5 34.4

41.9 34.6

42.4 34.9

42.9 35.1

43.4 35.4

43.9 35.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.3 2.9

43.6 2.8

44 3

44.3 3.1

44.6 3.1

45 3

45.3 3

45.6 3

46 3.1

46.4 3.1

46.7 3.2

47.1 3.2

47.5 3.1

47.8 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

165.1 0.5

165.6 0.8

166.1 1.5

166.7 1.5

167.4 1.4

168.1 1.5

168.9 1.7

169.7 1.8

170.3 1.7

171 1.7

171.8 1.7

172.6 1.7

173.1 1.6

173.6 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 -1.9

5.6 0.1

5.6 2

5.6 1.9

5.6 1.7

5.6 1

5.6 0.4

5.6 0.5

5.6 0.1

5.6 0

5.6 -0.2

5.6 -0.5

5.6 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

159.5 0.5

160.1 0.8

160.5 1.5

161.1 1.4

161.8 1.4

162.5 1.5

163.3 1.7

164 1.9

164.7 1.8

165.4 1.8

166.2 1.8

167 1.8

167.5 1.7

168 1.6

9.8 3.6

10 5.4

10.2 7

10.5 8.4

10.8 9.4

11.1 10.8

11.5 12.1

11.8 12.5

12.1 12.4

12.4 11.9

12.7 10.9

13 10.2

13.2 9.1

13.3 7.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 1.5

31.8 0.6

31.8 0.2

31.9 0.1

31.9 0.3

32 0.6

32.1 0.9

32.2 1

32.3 1.2

32.3 1.1

32.4 0.9

32.5 0.9

32.6 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5 22.8 4

5 22.7 4

5.1 22.7 4.1

5.1 22.6 4.1

5.1 22.7 4.1

5.2 22.7 4.2

5.3 22.6 4.2

5.3 22.6 4.3

5.4 22.6 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 4.5

2.4 1.3

2.4 -0.3

2.4 -0.2

2.4 -1.6

2.4 -0.7

2.4 1.3

2.4 1.6

2.4 2.6

2.5 2.7

2.5 2

2.5 2.4

2.5 2.7

2.5 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 0.1

9.2 0.5

9.3 0.3

9.3 0.2

9.3 -0.1

9.3 0.1

9.3 -0.2

9.3 -0.3

9.3 -0.1

9.2 -0.2

9.2 -0.3

9.2 -0.4

9.2 -0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.9 -0.9

21.1 2.2

21.2 3.6

21.4 3.6

21.7 4.1

22 4.4

22.3 5

22.5 5.2

22.7 4.3

22.8 3.5

23 3.3

23.2 3.2

23.4 3.2

23.5 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 0

28.6 -0.3

28.6 1.2

28.7 1.1

28.7 1

28.8 0.9

28.9 1

29 1.1

29.1 1.4

29.3 1.7

29.5 2

29.6 2.2

29.7 1.7

29.8 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20 0.9

20 0.3

20 1

20.1 0.8

20.2 0.8

20.1 0.7

20.2 0.5

20.2 0.3

20.2 0.1

20.2 0.2

20.2 0.4

20.3 0.6

20.3 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 0.6

8.5 0.9

8.5 0.3

8.5 -0.1

8.5 -0.2

8.5 -0.1

8.5 0.2

8.6 0.5

8.6 0.7

8.6 0.9

8.6 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -0.9

6.7 1.9

6.7 3.5

6.7 3.8

6.7 0.9

6.6 -0.6

6.6 -1.7

6.6 -1.4

6.5 -2.5

6.5 -2.4

6.5 -2.3

6.4 -2.2

6.4 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 -0.3

21.7 -0.4

21.7 -0.3

21.7 -0.1

21.7 0

21.7 -0.1

21.7 0

21.7 0.1

21.7 0.2

21.7 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

468.3 0.8

469.1 0.8

469.8 0.7

470.6 0.7

471.4 0.7

472.2 0.7

473.1 0.7

474.1 0.8

475.2 0.8

476.3 0.9

477.4 0.9

478.6 0.9

479.8 1

480.9 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

217.7 0.6

219 1.7

219.6 2.2

220.2 2.8

220.7 1.4

221.3 1.1

221.9 1.1

222.4 1

222.7 0.9

222.9 0.7

223.2 0.6

223.4 0.5

223.7 0.5

224 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.3

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

1741 1664 78

1864 1795 69

1944 1852 92

2043 1911 131

2126 1939 187

2244 2024 220

2345 2083 262

2386 2109 277

2417 2136 282

2435 2156 279

2469 2191 278

2480 2199 281

2438 2160 279

2385 2109 275

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

T allahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 5.0 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $31,800, the lowest of the studied areas. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent. The average annual wage level will be $44,700. Population growth will average at 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 12,512.58 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS: • Metro population estimate of 367,315 as of the 2010 census (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 188,812 in April of 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data). • An unemployment rate of 6.1% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 11,330 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State Government (all departments) – 30,918 • Florida State University – 6,450 • Leon County Schools – 4,444 • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,130 • City of Tallahassee – 2,708 • Publix Super Markets – 2,084 • Leon County – 1,918 • Florida A&M University – 1,888 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Capital Regional Medical Center – 890

Employment growth is expected to average 1.3 percent each year, the second lowest of the studied areas. However, the unemployment rate will average 5.1 percent, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 8.8 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average growth rate of 3.6 percent. The financial sector is expected to decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES TLH and Delta Celebrate 30 Years of Flying High • Delta Airlines had been serving Tallahassee and TLH since 1983 with connections to 328 destinations in 64 countries. • In 2013, TLH served 697,000 commercial passengers, a 5% increase from 2012. Delta provided more than 54% of these passengers with flights.

• TLH will be repairing its runways in January, which will require twelve months of work. The reconstruction will retain or create 160 jobs. Source: UrbanTallahassee.com, November 1, 2013

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee

11 TCC Workforce Development programs approved for Veteran Affairs’ benefits. • The Division of Workforce Development at Tallahassee Community College has been approved to add 11 training programs for veterans.

• U.S. Veterans Affairs permitted programs including welding, computer programming, industrial hydraulics, machining and more that will allow students to be certified in these fields. • TCC will work with Workforce Development in the new Veterans Center. TCC already offers student veterans academic advising, assistance with VA benefits, financial management training, tutoring, and networking opportunities.

Source: Greater Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce, November 13, 2013 City of Tallahassee pension plan is 91 percent funded • Tallahassee’s pension plan is still recovering from the Great Recession of 2008, but a private consultant says that the pension plan is improving every day. • It is one of the strongest plans in the state. For example, the Florida Retirement System defined benefit plan is only 86.2%. This will serve “517,000 teachers, state workers, law enforecment, professionals and county employees.” Source: Tallahassee.com, November 26, 2013 TCC wins 15 statewide communications and marketing awards

• The Assocaition of Florida Colleges held an annual competition for marketing and communications efforts. Colleges and universities from all over Florida competed, and TCC won many awards. • Awards included best poster and postcard, 2nd place in television ad, student handbook, and internet ad, and 3rd place in logo redesign, 80

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

social media campaign, foundation piece, specialty advertising, brochure, and annual report.

• All of Florida’s colleges support this Association through institutional dues. There are also 8,500 members who share their “talents, time and energy.” Source: Greater Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce, November 26, 2013 2 Po’ Boys cafes officially closed

• Po’ Boys was started by Jon Sweede in 1992, serving up classic New Orleans dishes. Though there are three locations, two will be shut down. One is under separate management. • Sweede declared health issues was the main reason behind closing the stores. At their peak, the cafes employed about 60 people. • A farewell party was hosted with the owners sister at the College Avenue restaurant.

Source: Tallahassee.com, December 13, 2013

T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

13500.0

8.0%

12000.0

6.0%

11500.0

4.0%

11000.0

180.0

10000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0%

165.0

0.0% -2.0%

160.0 155.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10500.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

13000.0 12500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.7 -4.6 6.8 4.9

12.5 6.5 6.8 5.7

12.8 3.0 6.8 6.0

13.0 1.1 6.8 6.2

13.2 1.9 6.9 6.3

13.9 4.9 7.2 6.7

14.5 4.3 7.5 7.0

15.2 5.2 7.9 7.4

16.1 5.8 8.2 7.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.8 -4.5

11.3 4.8

11.4 0.6

11.3 -0.7

11.4 0.8

11.8 3.5

12.1 2.8

12.6 3.5

13.1 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.0 29.6

33.7 30.6

34.6 30.6

34.6 30.1

34.9 30.0

36.3 30.8

37.4 31.3

38.9 32.1

40.7 33.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.9 0.3

40.5 1.6

41.0 1.1

41.2 0.5

41.4 0.6

42.5 2.7

43.9 3.3

45.4 3.5

47.0 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

169.0 -2.9

167.0 -1.2

165.6 -0.8

163.6 -1.2

165.7 1.3

167.9 1.3

170.0 1.2

172.4 1.4

174.5 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 -9.5

3.7 -4.1

3.3 -11.2

3.2 -3.8

3.2 2.7

3.3 1.8

3.4 1.7

3.4 0.8

3.4 0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

165.2 -2.7

163.3 -1.2

162.3 -0.6

160.5 -1.1

162.5 1.3

164.6 1.3

166.6 1.2

169.0 1.4

171.2 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.0 -18.0

6.4 -9.1

6.1 -4.5

5.8 -4.4

5.8 -0.8

6.2 6.0

6.9 11.8

7.6 11.3

8.1 6.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 -6.7

22.2 -0.9

22.3 0.7

22.1 -0.9

23.3 5.3

23.8 2.1

23.8 0.2

24.1 0.9

24.3 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 17.4 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.5 1.6

3.2 17.4 1.6

3.1 18.5 1.7

3.0 19.0 1.7

3.1 18.9 1.7

3.2 18.9 1.8

3.3 18.9 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 -6.0

3.1 -9.1

3.2 3.5

3.3 2.2

3.2 -1.6

3.2 0.5

3.2 0.4

3.3 2.6

3.4 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 -5.8

7.4 -1.1

7.5 0.9

7.1 -4.7

7.1 0.4

7.2 1.0

7.2 -0.2

7.2 -0.3

7.1 -0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 -3.6

18.2 -1.6

18.4 1.4

18.0 -2.5

18.0 0.4

18.7 3.7

19.6 4.6

20.2 3.2

20.8 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 1.4

19.5 0.2

19.8 1.2

19.9 0.8

20.4 2.4

20.7 1.5

21.0 1.1

21.4 2.0

21.7 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -1.7

16.2 -1.3

16.2 0.0

16.8 3.4

17.7 5.8

18.0 1.7

18.1 0.5

18.2 0.3

18.3 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 2.1

7.3 -4.3

6.6 -8.9

6.8 3.3

7.1 3.2

7.1 0.7

7.1 0.3

7.2 0.8

7.3 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 1.2

2.1 5.0

1.9 -9.1

1.9 -0.4

1.9 -1.2

1.9 3.2

1.9 -0.2

1.9 -1.9

1.9 -1.1

60.9 -0.4

60.9 0.0

60.3 -1.1

58.7 -2.6

57.9 -1.4

57.7 -0.3

57.7 0.0

57.9 0.4

58.3 0.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

365.4 1.0

369.4 1.1

371.7 0.6

375.8 1.1

379.2 0.9

382.8 1.0

386.9 1.1

391.4 1.2

395.6 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

192.2 0.6

192.5 0.2

190.4 -1.1

188.1 -1.2

186.3 -0.9

187.3 0.5

188.1 0.4

188.3 0.1

188.5 0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.3

8.3

7.4

6.1

5.3

5.1

5.0

827.6 613.1 214.0

659.6 603.1 57.0

782.6 563.4 219.0

984.9 494.0 491.0

1110.6 620.0 491.0

1513.5 1001.2 512.0

2224.5 1486.9 738.0

2469.7 1639.1 831.0

2423.3 1557.8 865.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

T allahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.7 4.8 7.1 6.6

13.8 5.1 7.1 6.7

14 4.9 7.2 6.7

14.1 4.6 7.3 6.8

14.3 4.4 7.4 6.9

14.4 4.3 7.4 7

14.5 4.3 7.5 7

14.7 4.4 7.6 7.1

14.9 4.6 7.7 7.2

15.1 5 7.8 7.3

15.3 5.4 7.9 7.4

15.6 5.8 8 7.5

15.8 5.8 8.1 7.7

16 5.9 8.2 7.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 3.8

11.8 3.7

11.8 3.5

11.9 3.1

12 2.9

12.1 2.8

12.2 2.7

12.2 2.8

12.4 3

12.5 3.3

12.6 3.7

12.8 4.1

12.9 4.2

13 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.8 30.6

36.1 30.8

36.4 30.9

36.7 31

37 31.2

37.3 31.3

37.5 31.4

37.9 31.5

38.3 31.8

38.7 32

39.1 32.2

39.6 32.4

40.1 32.7

40.5 33

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.9 1.6

42.3 2.4

42.7 3.3

43 3.3

43.3 3.4

43.7 3.3

44.1 3.3

44.4 3.3

44.9 3.5

45.2 3.5

45.6 3.5

46 3.5

46.4 3.5

46.8 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

167.4 1.6

167.8 1.8

168 1

168.5 1

169.1 1

169.6 1.1

170.3 1.3

170.9 1.4

171.5 1.4

172 1.4

172.7 1.4

173.4 1.4

173.9 1.4

174.3 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 0.3

3.3 1.7

3.3 2.6

3.3 2.4

3.3 1.7

3.4 1.3

3.4 1.4

3.4 1.1

3.4 0.9

3.4 0.7

3.4 0.4

3.4 0.3

3.4 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

164.1 1.6

164.5 1.8

164.7 1

165.2 0.9

165.7 1

166.3 1.1

166.9 1.3

167.6 1.4

168.1 1.4

168.7 1.4

169.3 1.4

170 1.4

170.5 1.4

171 1.4

6 2.9

6.1 5.2

6.2 7

6.4 8.8

6.6 9.9

6.8 11.4

7 12.7

7.2 13

7.4 12.6

7.6 11.9

7.7 10.8

7.9 9.9

8 8.7

8.1 7.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 5.2

23.8 2.9

23.8 0.5

23.8 -0.1

23.8 0.1

23.9 0.3

23.9 0.6

24 0.8

24 1.1

24.1 1

24.1 0.9

24.2 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3 19 1.7

3.1 18.9 1.7

3.1 18.9 1.8

3.2 18.9 1.8

3.3 18.9 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 1.1

3.2 0.8

3.2 -0.1

3.2 0.2

3.2 -1.3

3.2 -0.4

3.3 1.5

3.3 1.7

3.3 2.7

3.3 2.9

3.3 2.3

3.4 2.7

3.4 2.8

3.4 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 2.3

7.2 1.3

7.2 0.3

7.2 0.1

7.2 -0.1

7.2 0

7.2 -0.3

7.2 -0.1

7.2 -0.3

7.2 -0.4

7.1 -0.5

7.1 -0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 3

18.7 4.5

18.8 3.8

18.9 3.7

19.2 4

19.5 4.4

19.7 5

19.9 5.1

20 4.2

20.1 3.2

20.3 2.9

20.5 2.7

20.6 2.8

20.7 3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 2.1

20.7 1.8

20.7 1.1

20.8 1.2

20.9 1

20.9 1.1

21 1.2

21.1 1.3

21.2 1.6

21.3 1.9

21.4 2.2

21.6 2.3

21.6 1.9

21.7 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18 2.8

18 2.5

18 0.9

18.1 0.7

18.1 0.6

18.1 0.5

18.1 0.2

18.1 0.1

18.1 0.2

18.2 0.3

18.2 0.5

18.3 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 1.3

7.1 0.4

7.1 0.1

7.1 0.2

7.1 0.3

7.2 0.6

7.2 0.8

7.2 0.9

7.2 1.1

7.3 1.2

7.3 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 0.9

1.9 2.8

2 4.3

1.9 4.8

1.9 1.4

1.9 -0.1

1.9 -1.2

1.9 -0.9

1.9 -2

1.9 -1.9

1.9 -1.8

1.9 -1.7

1.9 -1.1

57.8 -0.9

57.8 0.2

57.7 -0.2

57.7 -0.1

57.7 0

57.8 0.1

57.9 0.2

57.9 0.3

58 0.4

58 0.5

58.2 0.5

58.3 0.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

381.5 0.9

382.3 1

383.3 1

384.2 1

385.3 1

386.4 1.1

387.5 1.1

388.6 1.1

389.7 1.1

390.8 1.2

392 1.2

393.1 1.2

394.1 1.1

395.1 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

186.8 -1.1

187.3 0.6

187.4 1.1

187.6 1.4

187.8 0.5

188 0.4

188.2 0.4

188.4 0.4

188.3 0.3

188.3 0.2

188.3 0

188.4 0

188.5 0.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

1257 788 470

1400 960 441

1596 1069 527

1800 1189 611

1999 1295 704

2162 1449 714

2334 1594 740

2403 1610 793

2442 1625 817

2457 1633 824

2483 1650 833

2497 1648 849

2481 1609 873

2427 1564 863

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r wate r

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.4 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $38,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level will be $52,100. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 113,372.69 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 173,094 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,267,775 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,344,031 in April 2013 for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data). • An unemployment rate of 6.9% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This amounts to 93,163 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). • TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 • MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 • Pinellas County School District – 13,905 • Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 • Pasco County School District – 9,289 • Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 • University of South Florida – 8,353 • Tampa International Airport – 8,060 • Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 • Publix Food Centers – 5,823 Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Employment growth is expected to average 2.1 percent annually, the fourth highest of the studied MSAs. The unemployment rate is expected to average a moderate 6.1 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 9.6 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service sector and the Education and Health Service sector with average annual growth rates of 3.8 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Bed tax records keep falling as Pinellas focuses on tourism • Pinellas County’s unprecedented tourism boom has resulted in another bed tax record; Pinellas collected $31 million in fiscal year 2013, according to the county’s tax collector office. • The bed tax is a 5% surcharge on the bill of every accommodation rented for less than six months. The tax goes towards funding tourism marketing, beach restoration, and other projects. • The $31 million is an 8% increase from the $28.7 million collected in the fiscal year 2012 and is not seen in destinations everywhere in the state. Aggressive marketing that is more targeted and is focused on different media than in the past is noted as one cause for this success. If this success continues and the city’s taxable

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r wate r

sales increase the tax is eligible to be increased to 6%.

Tampa International awards contract for big expansion • The Hillsborough County Aviation Authority unanimously voted this morning to hire a firm to design and build the first phase in the master plan for expansion of the Tampa International Airport, which will be nearly $1 billion. • Austin Commercial of Texas won the job and will design the airport’s new consolidated rental facility and automated people mover. The firm was ranked first out of eight firms by the airport staff and has considerable experience. • The firm has also committed to hiring Tampa Bay workers and firms, and to exceed the airport’s 18% set-aside for firms owned by women and minority business owners. The first phase, which is set to be completed in 2017, is expected to create about 8,000 jobs that will have a $320 million economic impact on the community over the next four years.

Sharply higher cost estimate puts NexLube construction on hold • Construction of a new $120 million oil recycling plant at the Port of Tampa was halted last month because according to a company statement, “costs estimated for the plant completion have increased to more than 100 (percent).” NexLube also said in a November media release that it temporarily suspended construction to evaluate its options due to the substantial increase in projected costs. • These cost increases are not unusual for industrial facilities, according to David Bell, a professor of chemical engineering at the University of Wyoming. What is unusual is for NexLube to have discovered them so long after construction began in 2012. • Parts that can withstand the very high pressure process required for the process may be the culprit of the price increase. Despite the cost increase, NexLube says the project continues to be viable and port spokesman, Ed Miyagishima, says that according to all indications from NexLube’s leadership the project will move forward.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 5, 2013

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 4, 2013

Legoland to build hotel • Legoland executives have announced that the theme park will build a 152 room Lego-themed hotel on its property by 2015. • This is expected to draw more visitors for longer stays to Winter Haven, where Legoland is located. • The hotel is the fifth Lego-themed hotel in the world. In other locations the Legoland park and hotel has expanded the area’s tourism offerings and Winter Haven had hoped for this from the beginning.

Duke Energy, Union’s contract talks raise safety concerns at nuke plant • Duke Energy’s collective bargaining contract with 1,800 electrical workers in Florida expired this week, and prompted a federal review of the closed Crystal River nuclear plant in the event of a strike. • Union representatives are concerned that the utility is willing to see the workers walk off the job in order to get the new contract it wants. Federal regulators intend to ensure the safety of the nuclear plant, if negotiations continue to erode. • The Union representatives are troubled by Duke’s proposed cuts, but there is a 60 day extension on negotiations for the contract dispute negotiations that began on October 15th.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 4, 2013

Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 22, 2013

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 4, 2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T ampa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t . P ete r sbu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C lea r wate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0

1.2

100000.0

1300.0

1050.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

80000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1350.0

0.8

110000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r wate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

100.3 -3.7 51.1 49.2

106.5 6.2 51.3 55.2

111.7 4.9 53.0 58.7

116.5 4.2 55.5 61.0

120.7 3.6 58.5 62.3

127.2 5.3 61.3 65.9

133.3 4.8 64.5 68.8

140.5 5.4 68.0 72.5

148.9 6.0 71.4 77.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

92.5 -3.7

96.7 4.5

99.0 2.5

101.4 2.3

103.9 2.5

108.1 4.0

111.6 3.3

115.8 3.7

120.9 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.2 33.4

38.1 34.6

39.5 35.0

40.9 35.6

42.1 36.3

43.9 37.3

45.4 38.0

47.2 38.9

49.4 40.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.0 1.6

45.6 1.3

46.4 1.8

47.5 2.4

48.5 2.1

49.8 2.7

51.3 3.1

52.9 3.0

54.5 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1122.7 -5.9

1112.1 -0.9

1129.8 1.6

1155.4 2.3

1192.7 3.2

1217.8 2.1

1244.4 2.2

1272.5 2.3

1296.1 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61.9 -13.4

58.2 -6.1

58.8 1.1

59.3 0.9

57.9 -2.4

58.8 1.5

59.6 1.4

59.8 0.3

59.5 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1060.7 -5.4

1053.9 -0.6

1071.1 1.6

1096.0 2.3

1134.8 3.5

1159.0 2.1

1184.8 2.2

1212.7 2.4

1236.6 2.0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

60.2 -21.3

52.9 -12.1

52.7 -0.3

53.9 2.2

58.1 7.7

63.2 8.9

70.8 12.1

78.7 11.1

83.8 6.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

210.5 -7.4

209.4 -0.5

213.4 1.9

218.8 2.5

227.7 4.1

231.0 1.4

233.5 1.1

236.9 1.5

240.1 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

47.7 137.1 25.7

45.9 138.3 25.1

46.3 141.4 25.8

48.2 144.2 26.3

47.9 153.4 26.3

48.7 155.2 26.7

49.8 155.2 27.8

51.1 155.7 28.8

52.4 155.9 29.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

27.5 -9.0

25.7 -6.6

25.9 0.6

25.6 -0.9

25.4 -0.8

25.5 0.3

25.5 0.1

26.0 2.1

26.7 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

93.2 -5.5

89.4 -4.1

91.6 2.5

95.1 3.8

97.3 2.4

97.3 0.0

97.3 -0.1

97.4 0.1

97.3 -0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

173.2 -6.7

178.2 2.9

187.2 5.1

196.1 4.7

206.4 5.3

215.3 4.3

224.5 4.3

232.7 3.6

239.6 3.0

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

174.4 0.8

177.9 2.0

180.3 1.4

182.7 1.4

190.9 4.5

194.1 1.7

198.0 2.0

203.7 2.9

208.1 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

122.1 -4.8

121.4 -0.5

123.0 1.3

128.3 4.3

133.2 3.8

136.8 2.7

138.7 1.4

140.3 1.1

142.5 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

45.2 -7.5

44.2 -2.3

43.6 -1.2

43.6 -0.2

44.7 2.7

44.8 0.1

44.8 -0.1

45.0 0.5

45.5 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 3.7

24.0 5.6

22.9 -4.6

22.6 -1.3

22.6 0.3

23.4 3.2

23.4 0.2

23.1 -1.5

22.9 -0.7

131.7 0.5

130.9 -0.6

130.4 -0.4

129.4 -0.8

128.4 -0.7

127.7 -0.6

128.3 0.4

129.0 0.6

130.1 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2767.7 0.7

2794.5 1.0

2827.1 1.2

2845.1 0.6

2864.9 0.7

2897.2 1.1

2935.8 1.3

2975.8 1.4

3017.0 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1296.2 -0.8

1293.4 -0.2

1307.9 1.1

1325.3 1.3

1344.7 1.5

1374.7 2.2

1395.1 1.5

1412.3 1.2

1428.6 1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.8

11.8

10.6

8.8

7.0

6.4

6.2

6.0

5.9

5890.2 3975.4 1915.0

6328.3 4511.3 1817.0

6923.1 4492.1 2431.0

8955.2 5894.7 3061.0

12265.3 7810.2 4455.0

13953.5 10098.7 3855.0

18887.0 13738.5 5148.0

21818.1 15627.7 6190.0

22211.9 15654.2 6558.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r wate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2013

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

125 5.8 60.1 64.8

126.4 5.2 60.9 65.5

127.9 5.1 61.6 66.2

129.4 5.1 62.4 67

131.2 5 63.3 68

132.6 4.9 64.1 68.5

134 4.8 64.9 69.1

135.4 4.6 65.8 69.6

137.5 4.8 66.6 70.9

139.4 5.1 67.5 71.9

141.4 5.5 68.4 73

143.5 6 69.3 74.2

145.8 6 70.1 75.7

147.9 6.1 70.9 77

106.8 4.8

107.6 3.8

108.5 3.8

109.4 3.6

110.5 3.5

111.3 3.4

112 3.2

112.7 3

114 3.1

115.1 3.5

116.3 3.8

117.7 4.4

119.1 4.5

120.3 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

43.3 37

43.7 37.2

44.1 37.4

44.4 37.6

44.9 37.8

45.2 38

45.6 38.1

45.9 38.2

46.5 38.5

46.9 38.7

47.4 39

48 39.3

48.6 39.7

49.1 40

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.2 2.2

49.6 2.5

50 3.1

50.4 3

50.8 3.1

51.1 3.1

51.5 3

51.9 3

52.3 3

52.7 3

53.1 3

53.5 3

53.9 3

54.3 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1209.5 2.6

1214.9 2.1

1220.1 1.8

1226.8 1.9

1234 2

1240.6 2.1

1247.7 2.3

1255.4 2.3

1261.7 2.2

1268.5 2.3

1275.8 2.3

1283.9 2.3

1289 2.2

1293.9 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

58.1 -0.6

58.6 1.5

59.1 2.5

59.3 2.5

59.5 2.4

59.5 1.5

59.7 0.9

59.8 0.9

59.9 0.7

59.8 0.4

59.7 0.1

59.7 -0.2

59.6 -0.3

59.6 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1151.4 2.7

1156.3 2.2

1160.9 1.8

1167.5 1.9

1174.6 2

1181.1 2.1

1188 2.3

1195.6 2.4

1201.8 2.3

1208.8 2.3

1216.1 2.4

1224.2 2.4

1229.4 2.3

1234.3 2.1

61.2 10.3

62.3 8.8

63.8 7.8

65.6 8.6

67.5 10.2

69.6 11.8

72 13

74.2 13.2

76.2 12.9

77.9 11.9

79.4 10.2

81.1 9.3

82.3 8.1

83.4 7.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

230.3 2.2

230.7 1.6

231.1 1.1

231.9 0.9

232.3 0.9

232.9 1

233.7 1.2

235 1.3

235.7 1.4

236.5 1.5

237.3 1.5

238.2 1.3

238.8 1.3

239.8 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

48.4 155.4 26.4

48.6 155.2 26.6

48.8 155.1 26.8

49 155.2 27.1

49.4 155 27.4

49.7 154.9 27.7

49.9 155.2 27.9

50.3 155.6 28.2

50.7 155.6 28.4

51 155.6 28.7

51.3 155.7 28.9

51.6 155.8 29.2

51.9 155.7 29.4

52.2 155.9 29.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 0.7

25.5 0.1

25.4 0

25.5 0.2

25.3 -1.2

25.4 -0.6

25.7 1.1

25.8 1.1

25.8 2.2

26 2.3

26.1 1.7

26.3 2.1

26.5 2.4

26.6 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

97.5 1.5

97.2 -0.7

97.3 -0.5

97.4 -0.2

97.4 -0.1

97.3 0.1

97.2 -0.1

97.2 -0.2

97.3 0

97.4 0.1

97.4 0.2

97.5 0.3

97.5 0.2

97.3 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

212 4.8

214.5 4.2

216.1 4

218.4 4.1

221.3 4.4

223.6 4.3

225.5 4.3

227.7 4.2

229.1 3.5

231 3.3

233.9 3.7

236.7 3.9

238.2 3.9

238.9 3.4

193.2 2.4

193.9 2

194.3 1.1

195.1 1.3

196.3 1.6

197.5 1.8

198.6 2.2

199.8 2.4

201.5 2.6

203.2 2.9

204.3 2.9

205.8 3

206.5 2.5

207.7 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

136 4.1

136.5 3.3

137 1.8

137.7 1.7

138.3 1.7

138.5 1.5

138.8 1.3

139.3 1.2

139.5 0.9

139.9 1

140.5 1.2

141.2 1.3

141.7 1.6

142.2 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.8 -0.5

44.8 1

44.8 0.2

44.7 -0.1

44.8 -0.1

44.8 0.1

44.9 0.3

44.9 0.4

45 0.6

45.1 0.8

45.3 0.9

45.4 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 2

23.4 2.2

23.6 4

23.4 4.5

23.5 1.7

23.4 0.3

23.4 -0.8

23.3 -0.5

23.1 -1.6

23.1 -1.5

23 -1.4

23 -1.3

23 -0.6

22.9 -0.6

127.7 -1

127.6 -0.9

127.6 -0.3

127.8 -0.1

128 0.2

128.1 0.4

128.3 0.6

128.5 0.5

128.7 0.6

128.9 0.6

129.1 0.6

129.3 0.6

129.6 0.7

130 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2883.4 1

2892.3 1.1

2901.6 1.2

2911.3 1.3

2920.9 1.3

2930.9 1.3

2940.8 1.3

2950.8 1.4

2960.7 1.4

2970.5 1.4

2980.8 1.4

2991.2 1.4

3001.1 1.4

3011.6 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1364.7 1.9

1372.9 1.9

1378 2.1

1383.2 3

1387.9 1.7

1392.5 1.4

1397.7 1.4

1402.2 1.4

1406.1 1.3

1410.2 1.3

1414.4 1.2

1418.6 1.2

1422.7 1.2

1426.6 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

5.9

12458 8597 3861

13488 9807 3681

14370 10557 3813

15498 11434 4064

16818 12190 4628

18241 13392 4850

19848 14527 5321

20641 14845 5796

21274 15182 6092

21648 15474 6173

22019 15838 6181

22332 16017 6315

22426 15875 6551

22150 15624 6525

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

I n d ust r y L ocation Q uotient

E X P L A N AT I O N A N D I N T E R P R E TAT I O N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C A L C U L AT I O N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3

FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u