Florida & Metro Forecast March 2015 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2015-2018

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published March 2015

ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA (UCF)

ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2015 - 2018 March 2015 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2015 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Ashley Miller, Researcher Trevi Sellers, Researcher Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Mariah Coughlin, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-12 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-27 Florida News Summaries....................................... 28 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 30-34 Gainesville......................................................... 35-39 Jacksonville....................................................... 40-44 Lakeland............................................................ 45-49 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 50-54 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 55-59 Ocala................................................................. 60-64 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 65-69 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 70-74 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 75-79 Tallahassee........................................................ 80-84 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 85-89 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 90

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MARCH 2015 FLORIDA FOR ECAST 2015 -201 8 • March Madness: Florida’s economy continues on its own Cinderella story, thanks in part to...Cinderella. • During 2015-2018 it is expected that Florida’s economy, as measured by real state GDP, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.4%, and that payroll job creation will average an annual pace of 2.3%. Both are stronger than the expected pace of the national economy.

• As of January 2015, 43.4% of single-family home transactions in Florida were cash sales, down from 48.9% a year earlier. The share of cash purchases has declined year over year since June 2013. Investors may be moving away from Florida residential real estate. Can traditional mortgage-financed buyers fill this void? • Payroll job growth year over year should average 3.1% in 2015, 2.5% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, and 1.9% in 2018. Payrolls will recover to their prerecession highs in the 3rd quarter of this year.

• Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.2% from 2015-2018. The faster pace of job creation has breathed new life into Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job is putting more Floridians back on the job hunt.

• The growing labor force and rising labor force participation rate (60.2% in January 2015) will make lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging. The pace of this decline will slow dramatically (and could reverse direction in any given month) as labor force growth picks up. As a result of this headwind, the unemployment rate should still hover around 5.3% by the end of 2018. • In Florida, Underemployment (U-6), a broader measure of labor market weakness than headline unemployment (U-3), averaged 12.8% during 2014, down from 19.3% in 2010 and from 14.3% in 2013. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2015-2018 are Construction (8.8%), Professional and Business Services (4.3%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.6%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.6%), and Education & Health Services (2.4%).

• Housing starts continue to rise, but the pace of increase will slow as interest rates rise. Total starts will be over 107,000 in 2015, just over 128,000 in 2016, hit 145,300 in 2017, and level off at 150,600 in 2018. Multifamily starts will hold a historically high share of total starts. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 4.0% in 2015; growth will be 3.3% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017 before easing to 2.9% in 2018. Average growth will be 3.4% during 2015-2018, 0.7 percentage points faster than average U.S. GDP growth over the same period. • Over 2015-2018, real personal income growth will accelerate and average 3.8%, with 4.3% growth in 2015, easing to 3.6% growth in 2018. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.8% during 2015-2018, helped by lower gasoline prices that are raising consumer confidence and disposable income.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET The January 2015 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors continues to depict a housing market that is improving at a slower pace. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $12,000 in January 2015, year over year, and now stands at $175,000, a year-over-year price appreciation of 7.9%. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market slowed to 5.4% as the median sales price increased $7,000 year over year and registered $137,000 in January.

Inventories of single-family homes in January are down slightly from a year ago and are now 5.3 months’, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the single-family market favoring sellers1.

Inventories of condominiums rose from their level of 5.9 months’ supply back in January of 2014 and are now 6.2 months’, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the condo market that is tipped in the favor of buyers.

Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to contract year over year (-39.4%), but foreclosure/REO sales are up versus January 2014 (14.8%), and traditional sales are up 15.4% year over year versus January 2014. Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are rapidly contracting year over year (-57.9 %), but foreclosure/REO sales are up versus January 2014 (2.8%), while traditional sales were up 3.0% 30,000 in January 2015 compared to January 2014. The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 43.4% in January 2015. For condos that figure was even higher, as 69.5% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which may

1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Higher numbers indicate a buyers’ market, lower numbers a sellers’ market. 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

25,000

suggest a waning role of investors in Florida’s housing market.

The declining, though still high, levels of investor activity in residential real estate around the state continue to drive these high percentages of cash transactions. International buyers and individuals able to liquidate financial assets whose values have soared in recent years are helping sustain these levels.

Will traditional buyers of homes in Florida be able to fill the vacuum created as investors exit Florida’s residential real estate market? This transition will ultimately determine the path that the housing market will follow in 2015 and beyond. Since traditional buyers are finance dependent, mortgage availability will be a critical determinant of how smoothly this transition from investors to traditional individual buyers transpires.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Credit Availability Index has crept higher since sliding at the end of 2014. It currently stands at 118.6 in February, up from 117.9 in January 2014. The index is benchmarked to equal 100 in March 2012, and to get a sense of how far housing finance has contracted, the Mortgage Bankers Association recently released historical estimates of its Credit Availability Index stretching back Figure 1.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes

Realtor Sales Moving Average

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Source: Florida Realtors

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as far as 10 years. The availability of mortgage credit has been dramatically curtailed relative to prerecession levels. In 2006, for instance, the index was just under 869. This is not to say we should revisit those levels of reckless lending, but to acknowledge the extent to which credit conditions have tightened. New regulations on qualified mortgages, part of the massive Dodd-Frank financial regulation law, are in effect. Higher capital standards for banks and stringent underwriting standards continue to impact lending. Current levels of the mortgage Credit Availability Index are only 14.0% of the 2006 peak levels. The current tightness in the mortgage market, with the availability of mortgages at a mere fraction of prerecession levels, is not consistent with a housing market recovery maintaining momentum.

Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales—a less volatile curve smoothing out the seasonality of housing market monthly data. Sales continue on an upward trajectory after bottoming out in early 2008. The economic and demographic drivers of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Job growth in Florida continues to outperform the labor market nationally, and the aging of the Baby Boomers bodes well for continued population growth via the in-migration of retirees to Florida. As the fundamental underpinnings of a healthy housing market in Florida continue to improve, we expect that the upward trend in sales will continue. This $300,000 continued improvement in the housing market will be increasingly dependent $250,000 on normalization of mortgage credit availability. $200,000 Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices bottomed out in 2011, but since then have been on an upward climb. The double-digit pace of price increases earlier in the recovery was not sustainable, and in 2014 the pace slowed. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by

$9,450, up 5.6% from a year ago. This recovery in the housing market is an important component of Florida’s continued economic recovery, and if price appreciation is sustained, it will help feed economic growth over the next several years.

Many homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth that they had at the peak of the housing market (median prices are currently $82,800 below the 2006 peak of $257,800), but rising prices have allowed some homeowners to escape after years of being trapped in mortgages that were underwater. Despite this progress, there is still a high percentage of Floridians underwater in their mortgages. CoreLogic puts that percentage at 23.2%, the second highest in the nation behind Nevada.

OU TLOOK FOR FLOR I DA 201 5 - 201 8 GR OSS STATE P RO DUC T Real Gross State Product (RGSP) growth in Florida is still expected to grow at a faster pace than we are forecasting for the U.S. economy over the next four years. Florida’s recession started before and ended well after the national recession. Florida’s recession lasted 58 months in total, nearly five full years. That is longer Figure 2.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

Source: Florida Realtors Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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than the combined length of the past five recessions in the United States, which stretches back to 1980.

and $242 billion from 2009. In 2018, Florida will break that $1 trillion mark with a NGSP of $1.034 trillion.

These improvements in the fundamentals of the state’s economy will accelerate growth in 2014 and 2015 when RGSP is expected to grow 2.9% and 4.0%, respectively. In 2016 to 2018 growth is going to slowly decelerate as tighter monetary policy pulls back on the reins of the national economy. Growth in that three-year stretch is expected to be 3.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9%, respectively. During 2015-2018 Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.4% annually.

P ERS O NAL INCO M E , RE TA I L SALES , AND AUTO SALES

In 2012, Florida finally got back into growth mode, with Real Gross State Product (RGSP) expanding at a 2.2% pace. In 2013, the economy stayed at that pace of growth as rising consumer confidence, the housing market recovery, population growth, and continuing progress in the labor market helped set the stage for faster economic growth in the state.

This average growth of 3.4% through 2018 may be small in comparison to the 6.7% growth rate the state experienced in 2005, but it is based more on improvements in the fundamental drivers of the state’s economy and a more sustainable fiscal situation in state and local government. It is also significantly higher than the average of our forecasted growth for the U.S. economy over that time frame (2.7%).

Housing prices have made substantial progress from the depths to which they plunged during the housing crisis. During the crisis, median home prices fell to a low of $122,200, but now stand at $175,000. This price appreciation is repairing damage done to Floridians’ household balance sheets, but it will take many years to recover all the wealth that was lost in the housing market collapse, when housing prices plummeted from their median-price high of $257,800.

Rising house prices are lifting more mortgage holders in the state above the surface of the water for the first time in several years, providing some financial breathing room. Despite this progress, and as noted above, CoreLogic estimates that 23.2% of mortgaged homes in Florida have negative equity or, stated another way, are underwater. Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues to march toward the $1 trillion mark, surpassing $963 billion in 2017, an increase of $163 billion from 2013 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

If the national economic policy and regulatory environment were more of a catalyst instead of becoming ever more restrictive, as we have discussed repeatedly and most recently in the December 2014 U.S. Forecast, the outlook for Florida’s economy would be even brighter.

Personal income growth in Florida lost momentum in 2013 as a number of factors conspired to bring about deceleration. The lost momentum in personal income growth returned in 2014, and is expected to be conserved through the end of 2018. In 2014 Florida will have experienced personal income growth of 4.6%. That growth will ease slightly in 2015 as personal income growth comes in at 4.5%. From there it will accelerate to 5.4% in 2016, and then to 6.3% in 2017, before easing slightly to 5.8% in 2018. After six years with personal income growth in Florida being slower than the national rate, Florida jumped ahead of the nation in 2013 as personal income growth in Florida grew 2.4%, while U.S. growth was just 2.0%. Florida is expected to continue to outpace the nation with personal income growth, averaging 1.0 percentage point higher than the national average growth for 2015 through 2018. Personal income growth during 2015-2018 will average 5.5% in Florida. Personal income will reach in excess of $1 trillion in 2018, with personal income growing in excess of $57 billion during the final year of our forecast. In 2014 real disposable income growth will average 3.1%, up from the previous year’s paltry 0.1% growth rate. Average growth during 2015-2018, however, will be a more robust 3.7%, with growth peaking at 4.2% in 2015. Financial markets have prospered since the bottom of the financial crisis, due in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy, coupled with three subsequently larger rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since surged to exceed 18,000. This run will likely be over as the Fed implements interest rate hikes, possibly commencing in late 2015.

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As a result of this record run, financial assets held by U.S. households have values that are $28 trillion higher than the 2009 nadir of the financial crisis levels, and $25 trillion higher than prerecession peaks. Home equity wealth held by America’s households has also made a strong recovery, but has not yet approached peak levels seen during the housing boom. That wealth is still over $2 trillion lower than 2005 highs, but home equity wealth has made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. U.S. households now hold $5.2 trillion more in home equity wealth than they held at the 2009 1st quarter low point of the housing market.

The housing market in Florida has not recovered as rapidly or as completely as financial markets have. But housing prices have been rising over the past few years, and despite a slowing in the pace of price appreciation in the past year or two, significant gains in home equity have been made. For many people in Florida, the effect of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2018. Many of Florida’s mortgage holders are still underwater, leaving the state with the second highest percentage of underwater mortgages in the nation. As the labor market in Florida continues to show an acceleration of job creation, there will be a boost in both consumer confidence and spending. Plummeting gasoline prices have further boosted confidence and have served as a lift to retail sales outside of gasoline. With more money staying in consumers’ pockets that previously went into the tank, households will be able to increase spending on other goods and services.

Retail sales in Florida grew robustly in 2010 and 2011. Part of that growth was due to higher gasoline prices, but it also reflected an ongoing release of pentup demand by Florida’s consumers as well as spending by domestic and international tourists. In 2012 the pace of growth eased to under 3.0% before bouncing back in 2013. With Florida’s labor market recovery building momentum and with more home equity wealth recovered, retail spending will begin to accelerate in 2016 and 2017 with growth averaging 5.6% during those two years. The average year-over-year growth rate of retail sales will be over 4.8% during 2015-2018. When the national recession came to an end, replacement needs and pent-up demand drove light vehicle sales significantly higher. Consumers began to

purchase vehicles again after the recession’s end and have continued to do so through 2014, enabled in part by the availability of easy financing for even sub-prime borrowers. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand during 2010-2014, when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate of nearly 11.8%. This burst followed three years during which registrations contracted at an average rate of nearly 20.0%.

The end of purchases due to pent-up demand means more modest growth in vehicle registration in Florida during 2015-2018, despite increased incentives and plentiful financing. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average around 2.5%. In 2018, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.34 million, representing an increase of over 640,000 registrations from the 2009 bottom. However, this much-improved level is still below the 2005 peak level of 1.45 million registrations during the height of the economic boom.

E M P LOYM ENT Florida’s labor market recovery outpaced the recovery in the national job market over the past three years. In 2013, payroll job growth was 2.5%, a much stronger figure compared to the national rate of job creation of 1.7% for the same year. In 2014 the labor market in Florida accelerated with job growth of 2.9%. Payroll job growth will surge ahead to 3.1% in 2015 and ease to 2.5% in 2016, before easing further to 2.1% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018. Florida will outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon by an average of 0.8%.

The Construction sector has gone from the worst performing sector for job growth in Florida to the best. It will hold this frontrunner position through the end of our forecast horizon in 2018. This sector was crushed by the housing market’s collapse, suffering job losses for five straight years (2007-2011) at an average annual rate of -12.9%. In 2009 alone, the sector had year-over-year job loss at a staggering rate of -23.1%. Job growth finally returned in 2012 and built momentum from there, hitting 10.6% in 2014. Construction job growth is expected to decelerate from 2014 rates, but will remain robust. Job growth is Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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expected to be 9.1% in 2015, 8.1% in 2016, and 9.0% in 2017, before easing to 6.6% in 2018. Average annual job growth during 2015-2018 will be 8.2%. This highlevel employment growth may at first glance overstate the strength of the recovery in this sector given the magnitude of job losses in the wake of the housing crisis. Employment will average 557,300 in 2018, a level that is 124,800 jobs fewer than the 2006 peak for employment in the construction sector. Jobs in single-family housing construction relative to those in commercial, multifamily, and public construction will be significantly below the max we saw in 2006 when single-family housing dominated the sector. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s second fastest growing sector on average through 2018. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 4.3% during 2015-2018. Job growth in this sector during the past three years averaged 3.9%, but will experience faster growth over the next four years. Job growth will hit 4.2% in 2015, before rising to 5.3% in 2016. Growth in this sector eases to 3.9% in 2017 and further to 1.7% in 2018, as overall job growth in Florida decelerates.

This sector, which includes primarily white-collar businesses from computer design, to advertising and travel agencies, but also more blue-collar waste management services, recovered jobs lost during the recession very quickly and was the fastest private sector in Florida to get back to prerecession employment levels. The Information sector in Florida experienced mild year-over-year job growth in 2013, adding jobs for the first time since 2005. Information is a mix of high-tech sectors and legacy media, publication, and software development. This industrial sector is still churning as changes in the gathering and dissemination of information continues to blur the historical differences between its subsectors. Sources of growth within this sector, such as software development, data processing and hosting, and wireless telecommunications, will help offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media. Tepid annual job growth of 0.2% returned to the Information sector in 2013, following on the heels of seven straight years of job losses. After 0.9% growth in 2014, growth will then slip to 0.6% in 2015. From that point, growth will continue but momentum will seesaw 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

through 2018. Average growth of 0.8% is expected during 2015-2018.

The Education and Health Services sector displayed some immunity to the recession that caused the rest of the sectors of Florida’s economy to succumb to the housing pathogen. The Education and Health Services sector actually added jobs throughout the recession (average job growth from 2007 to 2011 was 2.1%) and continues to do so. This was the only sector of Florida’s economy to grow in the midst of a record downturn and is expected to continue to grow through the end of 2018. During 2015-2018, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.1%.

The Affordable Care Act’s impact on healthcare in the face of impending implementation of the law’s employer mandates in 2015 and 2016, the growing concern about the fiscal feasibility of the law itself, a pending Supreme Court case, and uncertainty regarding Medicaid funding in the state all continue to cast a pall of uncertainty over this sector. Healthcare providers in Florida continue to feel their way along, slowly assessing the potentially malignant mass of uncertainty the law has created. Regardless of the law’s ultimate fate in front of the Supreme Court or in the political realm, there will be, in the end, expanded insurance coverage as a result of its passage. This expansion of coverage coupled with the aging of our already older-than-average population ensures that the demand for health services in Florida should remain strong. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health and Education sector through the end of 2018 and likely beyond.

Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 2.1% in 2014, but as 2014 came to a close, growth eased as both the domestic and global economic environments weakened. The weakening of economic expansions at home and abroad, growing concern over a slowdown in China, a rapidly strengthening U.S. dollar, and persistent struggles in Europe will suppress the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector beyond 2014. After gaining some momentum early in 2014, manufacturing employment growth in Florida is expected to steadily lose momentum. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.9% in manufacturing for 2015,

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followed by a year of milder job growth in 2016, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 1.3%. Manufacturing is expected to continue to decelerate in 2017 and 2018 when growth will be 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively. Average annual job growth during 2015-2018 will be 1.0%.

The State & Local Government sector is experiencing improved revenue streams as sales taxes and housing prices (and thus property tax revenue) continue to rise. The budgetary crisis impacted governments at all levels in Florida and all were forced to make painful cuts to employment. The compelled austerity led to job losses in this sector that persisted for five years through 2013. In 2014, job losses in the State and Local Government sector ended but growth was still virtually non-existent. Growth will remain positive going forward, averaging 1.0% during 2015-2018. As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government services will grow as well, and employment growth in these governments will be a necessary part of the solution to meet the demands of Florida’s growing economy. State and local government will remain cautious in hiring as the shadow of the painful, posthousing-bubble cuts still loom over budgetary cycles across the state.

The outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida, on the other hand, continues to be negative through the end of our 2018 forecast horizon. Any solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will require more revenue, but ultimately cuts in federal spending will be necessitated as well. As the Fed eventually embarks on a cycle of interest rate hikes in 2015 or perhaps 2016, the burden of servicing a national debt that is in excess of $18.1 trillion will consume a larger slice of federal tax revenue pie. The interest rate on the government’s credit card is going up, and the minimum payment will rise as well. This increasing share of federal tax revenue will cause the portion of federal tax revenue that goes toward discretionary spending to get smaller. It will likely be 2020 before the decennial census drives the next expansion in Federal Government employment in Florida. Employment in this sector will contract at an average rate of 0.6% during 2015-2018.

UNEM P LOYM ENT The unemployment rate in Florida has fallen significantly from its peak and stands at 5.7% as of January 2015. After spending many years above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s January unemployment rate is now on par with that of the nation as a whole. Earlier in the recovery, such declines in the unemployment rate in Florida and in the nation, were in part driven by a shrinking labor force participation rate. Florida’s labor force participation in January 2015 stood at 60.2%, up from 59.9% a year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.9% in January 2015. This is the lowest since March 1978 and is down 3.3 percentage points from the start of the recession. Understanding the different trends in the labor force participation rate in Florida relative to the nation as a whole is critical to understanding comparative movements in the unemployment rate going forward. If Florida continues to experience a rising labor force participation rate while the national rate struggles to improve, it is likely that we will see the unemployment rate in Florida move above that of the nation as a whole. As counterintuitive as it may seem, this will be evidence that Florida’s labor market is actually healing faster than the national labor market. This conclusion will be supported by faster payroll job growth in the state and a decline in the number of unemployed workers. The unemployment rate in Florida, 5.7% in January 2015, represents a 5.7 percentage point decline from the peak unemployment rate in 2010.

We are forecasting stronger economic growth in Florida over the forecast horizon as well as continued strong growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic growth, however, will be faced with a headwind of a rising labor force participation rate that will make progress in reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging task. We expect the labor force to grow more rapidly during 2015-2018 as job seekers become encouraged by the robust job growth in the state and are motivated to reenter the labor force. This will have a net result of dramatically slower declines in unemployment rates and the occasional increase in the unemployment rate in Florida on a month-to-month basis. The labor force in Florida is expected to grow an average of 2.0% during 2015-2018. That compares to an Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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average growth rate of just 1.2% during the prior four years. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to hover around the 5.6% level during 20152016, and 5.3% in 2017-2018. This will represent a decline in the average unemployment rate of just 0.3% during 2015-2018. Contrast that modest dip to the previous four yearsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; decline of 2.7 percentage points, during which the labor market did not face the stiff headwinds of as rapidly of a growing labor force.

Nationally and in Florida, the levels of underemploymentâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;those who are working part-time but not by their choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force (those who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months)â&#x20AC;&#x201D;are still elevated. When adding these workers to the headline unemployment figure, we get the broadest measure of unemployment known as U-6. Looking at U-6, we see a labor market still deeply damaged, as U-6 in Florida averaged 12.8% for 2014 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the national rate of U-6 stands at 12.0% over that same period. While U-6 in Florida is down from its 2013 reading of 14.3%, the current rate still reflects more depth of the damage to the labor market in Florida than might be reflected in the current headline unemployment rate of 5.7%. As the employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act are finally enforced over the next two years, the potential for rising levels of underemployment in response to the full/part-time dichotomy in the law will require ongoing scrutiny of U-6 at the national and state level in order to fully understand the impact of the healthcare law on the labor market.

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

725.2 4.1 2.8

767.4 5.8 6.2

793.0 3.3 5.2

811.4 2.4 2.0

848.5 4.6 4.2

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

713.3 2.4

736.9 3.3

747.6 1.5

755.9 1.1

U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $)

1.2 658.8 2.5 1.0 728.6

3.7 673.1 2.2 2.5 736.4

3.3 679.3 0.9 3.0 769.0

0.8 680.1 0.1 -0.2 800.5

2015

2016

2017

2018

886.7 4.5 4.1

934.3 5.4 4.4

993.2 6.3 4.9

1,050.6 5.8 4.6

780.2 3.2

813.3 4.3

840.2 3.3

875.3 4.2

906.5 3.6

2.8 700.9 3.1 2.7 838.7

3.0 730.4 4.2 2.5 888.6

3.1 751.5 2.9 3.0 934.9

3.3 782.6 4.1 3.4 983.9

3.0 811.8 3.7 3.2 1,033.7

Personal Income and GSP

(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

1.0

1.1

4.4

4.1

4.8

6.0

5.2

5.1

721.0 -0.1

718.2 -0.4

734.3 2.2

750.5 2.2

772.6 2.9

803.8 4.0

830.0 3.3

856.8 3.2

881.7 2.9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment

-0.1

2.2

2.9

2.4

3.0

3.2

2.3

2.1

1.9

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

0.9 11.3

1.1 10.3

1.1 8.8

0.7 7.2

1.8 6.1

2.5 5.5

2.2 5.4

2.0 5.3

9.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

6.2

5.6

5.5

5.3

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

-0.7 -0.8

1.2 1.1

1.7 2.0

1.7 2.5

1.9 2.9

2.1 3.1

1.7 2.5

1.4 2.1

0.9 1.4

-0.5

4.0

-0.3

-11.2 -4.5 -3.6 -4.9

-4.4 1.1 0.8 1.3

1.9 1.6 1.1 1.8

0.3

3.1

-1.7

-2.8

0.5

0.2

7.5 1.4 -0.5 2.4

10.6 2.1 -0.9 3.5

9.1 1.9 -0.6 3.1

8.1 1.3 0.0 2.0

9.0 0.7 -0.3 1.2

6.6 0.1 -0.1 0.2 2.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-2.0

3.7

2.2

2.7

3.4

2.6

4.4

4.0

Wholesale Trade

-2.8

-0.3

1.8

1.0

2.3

2.4

2.8

2.1

Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services

0.2 -1.9 1.2 1.9

2.3 1.8 3.0 1.9

2.4 2.7 3.7 1.7

2.8 2.7 4.0 1.7

3.3 2.1 3.9 2.0

3.6 2.1 4.2 2.8

0.9 1.4 5.3 2.9

0.3 0.1 3.9 1.7

-0.2 -0.9 1.7 1.0

Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

0.5 -4.6 7.2 -1.2

2.8 -1.0 -5.4 -1.1

4.2 -1.6 -0.8 -1.4

3.9 0.2 -0.5 -0.2

3.7 0.9 -0.4 0.1

3.4 0.6 0.7 0.7

1.5 1.2 -0.9 0.6

1.7 0.6 -1.0 1.4

1.8 0.8 -1.3 1.7

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

18,888.3 19,138.1 19,385.5 19,639.6 19,929.6 20,238.5 20,553.7 20,872.3 21,191.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 182.9 210.1 212.3 240.3 264.4 279.2 272.0 268.2 262.4 83.1 19.8 1.2 13.1 11.2 5.6 -2.6 -1.4 -2.2

38.2 31.8

41.6 32.0

59.7 42.8

81.1 55.0

Housing 83.3 58.3

107.4 74.1

128.2 85.5

145.3 101.5

150.6 104.0

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

6.4

9.6

16.9

26.1

25.0

33.3

42.7

43.8

46.6

(%Ch Year ago)

1.2

3.1

1.9

0.0

2.6

2.5

2.7

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

Consumer Prices 1.5 1.9

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

Personal Income (Bil. $)

874.3

881.9

890.2

900.3

914.6

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

5.0 4.7 806.5 4.8

4.3 4.0 810.6 4.3

4.3 3.9 815.8 4.3

4.4 3.9 820.5 3.7

4.6 4.1 828.7 2.7

U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)

2016Q2

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

Personal Income and GSP 926.8 940.4 955.5

971.9

986.2

1,000.1

1,014.4

1,030.3

6.3 4.9 863.7 4.2

6.4 5.0 871.5 4.3

6.3 5.0 879.1 4.2

6.2 4.9 886.8 4.0

6.0 4.8 895.9 3.7

5.1 4.3 835.4 3.1

2016Q3

5.6 4.5 843.6 3.4

6.1 4.8 853.0 4.0

3.5

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

725.6 5.0 3.2 870.4

728.2 4.4 2.5 884.8

732.4 4.3 2.3 894.3

735.4 3.2 2.1 905.0

741.7 2.2 2.4 916.6

746.8 2.5 2.8 929.0

754.5 3.0 3.2 940.6

762.8 3.7 3.5 953.2

771.2 4.0 3.4 964.8

778.6 4.3 3.4 977.5

786.2 4.2 3.4 990.0

794.2 4.1 3.4 1,003.1

801.0 3.9 3.3 1,014.9

6.5

6.1

5.6

5.3

5.0

5.2

5.3

5.2

793.0

802.0

806.9

813.1

819.4

827.3

833.2

840.3

846.4

853.5

860.1

867.2

872.5

(%Ch Year ago)

4.6

4.3

3.8

3.5

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.2

3.1

Employment

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.5 5.4 5.6

2.1 5.5 5.7

2.7 5.5 5.6

2.8 5.5 5.6

2.3 5.4 5.5

2.1 5.4 5.5

2.1 5.4 5.4

2.1 5.3 5.4

2.0 5.3 5.3

1.9 5.3 5.3

1.3 2.0 0.8 9.3

1.1 1.8 0.7 8.7

1.0 1.6 0.6 8.1

GSP (Bil. 2009$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

2.3 3.2 2.6 9.6

2.2 3.1 -0.7 9.8

2.0 3.3 -4.2 8.6

1.9 2.9 -4.6 8.3

1.7 2.6 -4.5 7.8

1.7 2.5 -3.5 7.9

1.8 2.5 -2.2 8.1

1.7 2.5 -0.9 8.6

1.6 2.4 0.0 8.9

1.5 2.2 0.5 9.1

1.5

2.1

2.2

1.8

1.5

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.4

-1.4 2.8 2.3 2.1

-0.4 3.3 2.3 1.7

-0.9 3.7 2.3 2.8

0.2 2.5 3.6 3.0

0.1 2.2 4.1 2.6

-0.1 2.2 4.5 2.9

0.1 2.1 4.5 2.8

-0.2 1.4 4.4 2.8

-0.4 1.2 4.4 3.0

-0.3 1.1 4.1 2.9

-0.3 1.1 3.9 2.8

-0.1 1.2 3.5 2.6

0.0 0.6 3.2 2.4

Retail Trade

4.2

4.1

3.7

2.6

1.6

0.9

Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

2.0 3.6 3.0 3.9

1.9 4.2 2.7 2.9

2.3 4.4 2.9 3.7

2.2 4.7 2.8 2.9

1.9 5.1 2.6 2.1

1.7 5.2 2.8 1.5

0.7 1.1 5.5 2.9 1.2

0.4 0.9 5.6 3.3 1.0

0.1 0.5 5.3 2.6 1.1

0.3 0.3 4.4 1.9 1.7

0.4 0.1 3.4 1.4 2.0

0.4 -0.4 2.5 1.0 2.2

0.3 -0.7 1.9 0.9 2.1

Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

0.9 1.4 0.6

0.4 0.7 0.6

0.3 0.5 1.0

0.9 0.0 0.6

0.3 -0.7 0.4

1.0 -0.9 0.5

2.2 -0.9 0.6

1.0 -0.9 0.9

1.3 -1.0 1.2

0.6 -0.9 1.4

-0.1 -1.0 1.5

0.8 -1.2 1.6

0.7 -1.3 1.6

20,119.8

20,199.4

20,278.3

20,356.5

20,435.1

20,513.9

20,593.1

20,672.7

20,752.4

20,832.4

20,912.3

20,992.2

21,072.0

1.5 71.4 7.2

1.5 70.3 5.0

1.6 69.3 5.0

1.6 68.2 5.1

1.6 68.2 -4.5

1.6 68.0 -3.3

1.6 68.0 -1.9

1.6 67.9 -0.5

1.6 67.6 -0.9

1.6 67.3 -1.1

1.6 66.9 -1.6

1.5 66.5 -2.0

1.5 66.2 -2.1

97.7 68.3 29.4

104.3 73.9 30.5

112.0 76.9 35.1

115.6 77.2 38.5

119.1 79.5 39.6

125.1 82.0 43.1

139.3 94.6 44.8

144.1 99.2 44.9

144.1 101.2 42.8

146.2 102.6 43.6

146.9 102.9 44.0

148.2 103.5 44.7

0.0

-0.4

-0.3

0.7

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.8

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

129.4 86.1 43.3

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago) *Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

2.6

2.8

2.6

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,961.8

8,017.4

8,065.3

8,118.5

8,168.7

8,218.6

8,268.5

8,321.5

8,361.4

8,401.0

8,437.2

8,472.3

8,495.8

Manufacturing

333.1

334.5

334.9

336.6

338.2

339.3

340.0

339.6

340.6

341.6

342.3

342.0

Durable Goods

227.8

229.0

229.8

231.3

232.8

234.0

234.7

234.5

235.6

236.5

237.3

237.1

Wood Products

11.5

11.6

11.7

11.8

11.9

12.0

12.1

12.2

12.3

Computer & Electronics

40.6

40.5

40.7

40.8

41.0

40.9

Transportation Equipment

40.0

40.1

39.4

39.3

39.4

39.2

39.0

39.4

39.6

39.5

39.2

105.3

105.5

105.2

105.3

105.4

105.3

105.1

105.0

28.3

28.4

28.3

28.4

28.5

7,628.7

7,683.0

7,730.4

7,782.0

7,830.5

7,879.3

7,928.5

7,981.9

8,020.7

8,059.4

8,094.9

8,130.1

8,153.7

5.8

5.7

5.6

Construction

431.2

439.6

447.4

456.3

465.0

474.5

483.8

495.6

506.5

517.8

528.8

538.9

547.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

258.7

260.5

263.3

266.8

269.3

272.3

275.3

278.5

281.3

283.6

285.9

288.2

290.1

Wholesale Trade

333.1

334.5

337.2

340.2

341.9

344.2

346.5

349.8

352.0

354.1

356.2

358.8

360.4

1,068.2

1,075.9

1,079.3

1,084.0

1,085.3

1,085.7

1,087.1

1,087.8

1,086.2

1,088.7

1,091.1

1,091.7

1,089.5

135.7

136.3

135.6

135.9

136.1

137.7

138.6

137.3

137.9

138.5

138.4

138.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1,188.5

1,203.2

1,216.2

1,232.8

1,248.6

1,265.4

1,283.0

1,301.4

1,314.6

1,321.3

1,326.6

1,333.5

1,339.9

Admin. & Support

595.4

603.7

609.6

618.8

629.5

641.9

655.7

669.1

680.4

685.8

690.9

698.0

704.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

500.7

506.8

513.5

520.8

525.7

529.8

533.3

538.2

539.9

541.1

540.6

540.4

92.4

92.7

93.1

93.2

93.4

93.7

93.9

94.1

94.3

94.4

94.6

94.8

95.0

Financial Activities

531.0

533.0

536.1

538.5

541.1

541.8

542.2

543.3

544.0

543.6

542.5

541.3

540.0

Real Estate & Rent

173.8

174.6

175.7

176.9

178.0

178.7

179.5

180.5

181.4

182.1

182.6

183.2

183.8

Fin. & Insurance

357.2

358.4

360.3

361.6

363.1

362.7

362.8

362.6

361.5

360.0

358.1

356.2

1,171.9

1,180.7

1,187.2

1,192.4

1,201.9

1,214.4

1,222.1

1,231.2

1,232.9

1,236.9

1,239.7

1,243.0

1,243.6

147.1

146.9

147.0

146.9

146.5

145.8

145.0

144.0

143.0

142.3

141.3

140.6

Health Services

1,024.8

1,033.8

1,040.2

1,045.4

1,054.9

1,067.9

1,076.3

1,086.2

1,088.9

1,093.8

1,097.4

1,101.7

1,103.0

Leisure & Hospitality

1,100.8

1,107.7

1,114.4

1,120.3

1,124.5

1,124.1

1,127.9

1,131.9

1,136.6

1,142.7

1,150.1

1,156.9

1,160.3

320.3

321.8

323.0

324.2

325.3

326.1

326.6

327.0

327.1

327.4

328.0

1,083.3

1,084.0

1,084.9

1,085.0

1,086.0

1,087.5

1,089.9

1,092.5

1,096.3

1,099.5

1,102.9

1,106.5

1,110.0

Federal Gov't.

132.9

132.7

132.4

132.1

131.9

131.5

131.2

130.8

130.6

130.3

129.8

129.3

128.8

State & Local Gov't

950.5

951.3

952.5

952.9

954.1

956.0

958.7

961.7

965.7

969.2

973.1

977.2

981.2

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 4. Employment Annual

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

8,244.3 8417.97

8,533.5

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,172.3

7,252.3

7,396.7

7,580.1

7,798.9

8,040.8

Manufacturing

309.1

312.5

317.4

322.0

328.6

334.8

339.3

341.7

341.9

Durable Goods

203.6

206.2

209.9

215.0

222.6

229.5

234.0

236.7

237.1

8.4

8.6

8.8

10.4

11.1

11.6

11.8

12.2

12.4

Computer & Electronics

43.0

42.5

40.9

40.1

40.5

40.8

41.0

40.9

Transportation Equipment

33.8

34.2

35.4

36.6

38.5

39.7

39.3

39.5

38.8

105.5

106.3

107.5

107.0

106.0

105.3

105.0

104.9

27.5

28.7

29.2

28.3

28.4

28.5

6,863.3

6,939.7

7,079.3

7,258.2

7,470.3

7,706.0

7,905.0

8,076.3

8,191.6

5.4

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.6

Construction

351.1

335.4

341.9

367.7

406.7

443.6

479.7

523.0

557.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

227.1

235.4

240.6

247.2

255.6

262.3

273.9

284.7

292.0

Wholesale Trade

313.2

312.2

317.9

321.1

328.4

336.3

345.6

355.3

362.8

Retail Trade

934.0

955.3

978.3

1,005.4

1,039.0

1,076.9

1,086.5

1,089.4

1,087.3

Information

137.1

135.7

133.6

133.9

135.0

135.9

137.4

138.3

139.4

1,005.4

1,035.8

1,074.3

1,117.4

1,161.2

1,210.2

1,274.6

1,324.0

1,346.0

Admin. & Support

493.8

516.6

537.9

558.4

581.6

606.9

649.0

688.8

710.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

432.5

437.9

451.0

468.1

487.3

510.5

531.7

540.7

539.8

79.1

81.4

85.4

90.9

92.3

92.8

93.8

94.5

95.3

Financial Activities

477.9

486.4

499.4

512.8

523.6

534.6

542.1

542.9

538.1

Real Estate & Rent

150.4

153.0

160.0

165.7

171.5

175.3

179.1

182.3

184.4

Fin. & Insurance

327.5

333.4

339.4

347.1

352.1

359.4

362.9

360.5

353.7

1,070.7

1,091.2

1,109.5

1,127.9

1,150.4

1,183.1

1,217.4

1,238.1

1,250.9

Education Services

134.6

136.8

139.6

142.7

147.0

146.1

142.7

139.9

Health Services

936.1

954.5

969.9

985.2

1,003.4

1,036.1

1,071.3

1,095.4

1,111.0

Leisure & Hospitality

931.2

957.2

997.5

1,036.4

1,074.8

1,110.8

1,127.1

1,146.6

1,167.3

Other Services

297.3

295.7

301.6

306.4

312.7

322.3

326.3

327.2

329.2

1,112.8

1,093.5

1,079.1

1,076.4

1,077.0

1,084.3

1,089.0

1,101.3

1,115.6

Federal Gov't.

142.2

134.0

132.8

132.2

131.6

132.5

131.3

130.0

128.2

State & Local Gov't

970.6

959.6

946.3

944.3

945.3

951.8

957.6

971.3

987.4

Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

874.3

881.9

890.2

900.3

914.6

926.8

940.4

955.5

971.9

986.2

1,000.1

1,014.4

1,030.3

Wages & Salaries

388.8

394.0

399.5

405.4

411.3

417.2

423.1

429.6

435.8

442.1

448.4

454.8

460.8

Other Labor Income

87.0

87.7

88.6

89.6

90.9

91.8

92.9

94.0

95.6

96.7

97.8

99.0

100.7

Nonfarm

52.5

53.8

54.2

54.9

55.8

56.8

57.2

58.0

58.7

59.5

59.8

60.4

60.7

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.1

Property Income

228.7

228.9

230.0

231.8

235.0

238.9

244.3

250.2

255.3

260.5

265.6

270.7

275.9

Transfer Payments

Farm

175.5

176.7

177.6

179.1

183.6

184.9

186.5

188.4

193.1

195.0

196.9

198.9

203.5

Social Insurance

61.6

62.4

63.1

64.0

65.6

66.4

67.3

68.3

70.3

71.3

72.2

73.2

75.3

Personal Income

806.5

810.6

815.8

820.5

828.7

835.4

843.6

853.0

863.7

872

879

887

896

Wages & Salaries

Billions 2009 $

358.6

362.2

366.1

369.5

372.7

376.0

379.6

383.5

387.3

391

394

398

401

Other Labor Income

80.3

80.6

81.2

81.7

82.4

82.7

83.3

84.0

84.9

Nonfarm

48.5

49.4

49.7

50.0

50.6

51.2

51.4

51.8

52.2

Farm

1.0

Property Income

211.0

210.4

210.7

211.3

212.9

215.4

219.2

223.3

226.9

230

233

237

240

Transfer Payments

161.9

162.4

162.8

163.2

166.4

166.7

167.3

168.2

171.6

172

173

174

177

56.8

57.4

57.8

58.3

59.4

59.8

60.4

61.0

62.4

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1243.73 1247.80 1254.32 1264.09 1282.55 1298.37 1303.50 1312.98 1330.09 1349.84 1367.09 1366.23 1353.09

Retail Sales (Billions $)

296.6

300.4

303.3

308.4

313.0

316.9

321.4

325.8

329.9

334.7

339.1

343.5

347.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

273.6

276.1

277.9

281.0

283.6

285.7

288.3

290.9

293.2

295.8

298.1

300.3

302.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

725.2

767.4

793.0

811.4

848.5

886.7

934.3

993.2

1,050.6

Wages & Salaries

322.9

332.4

346.5

358.2

376.8

396.9

420.3

445.3

470.0

Other Labor Income

76.5

75.2

78.0

81.5

84.9

88.2

92.4

97.3

102.4

Nonfarm

38.3

40.4

45.3

48.0

50.5

53.8

57.0

59.6

61.7

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.1

Property Income

186.8

210.8

213.3

216.1

222.8

229.9

242.1

263.0

282.5

Transfer Payments

148.6

152.2

155.5

160.6

169.6

177.2

185.9

196.0

206.9

50.7

46.8

48.8

56.5

59.7

62.8

66.9

71.7

76.7

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

713.3

736.9

747.6

755.9

780.2

813.3

840.2

875.3

906.5

Wages & Salaries

317.6

319.2

326.7

333.7

346.5

364.1

378.0

392.4

405.6

Other Labor Income

75.3

72.2

73.5

75.9

78.1

80.9

83.1

85.7

88.3

Nonfarm

37.6

38.8

42.7

44.8

46.4

49.4

51.2

52.5

53.3

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.9

Property Income

183.7

202.4

201.0

201.4

204.9

210.8

217.7

231.8

243.8

Transfer Payments

146.1

146.6

149.6

155.9

162.6

167.1

172.7

178.5

49.9

44.9

46.0

52.7

54.9

57.6

60.1

63.2

66.1

879.82 1006.89 1101.01 1224.72 1252.49 1299.35 1353.31

1347.9

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

810.51

Retail Sales (Billions $)

243.1

260.4

268.0

280.1

292.5

302.2

319.3

336.8

353.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

239.2

250.0

252.7

260.9

268.9

277.2

287.1

296.8

304.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(%)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment 700.0

(Thousands)

600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Federal Government Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Financial Activities Employment 560.0

(Thousands)

540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Gross State Product

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0 0.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1200.0

(Thousands)

1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Employment 8600.0 8400.0 8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income 12%

(% change year ago)

9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Population (Thousands)

22000.0 21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)

10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1020.0 1000.0 980.0 960.0 940.0 920.0 900.0 880.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1750.0

(Thousands)

1700.0 1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Unemployment Rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a N e w s S umma r ies Study: Florida ranks fourth lowest in unemployment insurance claims

• Florida International University co-released a report concluding that shortening the amount of time one can receive unemployment benefits has been “especially detrimental to the unemployed.” • States like Florida that have limited the eligibility to receive unemployment insurance are currently experiencing the largest losses to the unemployed receiving any benefits at all.

• The national level of jobless benefit recipients is 34.7 percent, whereas Florida has fewer than 19 percent receiving benefits and now ranks fourth lowest in the country for such benefit recipients. • The report also states that Florida and other states like it continually ignore the advantages of these programs in contributing to countercyclical stimulus, encouraging work searches by the unemployed, and protecting families against income loss.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, March 9, 2015

Florida consumer confidence hits 9-year high

• The University of Florida’s Consumer Sentiment Index for the state found that Florida residents are increasingly confident about the economy. • The Index rose to 94.7 in February from 93.1 in January, the highest level in the past nine years.

• Although the recession had ‘officially’ ended in 2009, many now think it lasted much longer in Florida.

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, February 27, 2015 Feds, Florida reach deal on construction industry rip-off • A highly contentious series of investigations closed with a deal between the U.S. Department of Labor and the Florida Department of Revenue to crack down on an accounting trick called “worker misclassification” that costs the government nearly $400 million per year in lost tax revenue. • Worker misclassification occurs when companies label their workers as independent contractors in place of employees. Transgressors can save up to 20 percent and sometimes more in labor costs by not withholding income taxes on those workers and not having to pay unemployment taxes. 28

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

• Of the 29 major government-backed construction projects between 2009 and 2013, one in five used this loophole, undercutting honest companies from bidding on the projects.

• The agreement calls for the Florida government to share information and coordinate on activities with the U.S. Department of Labor.

Source: The Miami Herald, January 13, 2015 Income gap growing in Florida

• A report from the Economic Policy Institute shows the wealthy in Florida are gaining wealth while everyone else continues to lose ground on wages. • The top one percent saw a 39.5 percent increase in income from 2009 to 2012, and the remaining 99 percent experienced an income decrease by 7.1 percent.

• The report highlighted that Florida’s particular inequality growth was much higher than the general U.S. trend.

• Chris McCarty, Director of the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said in a statement that even though Florida continues to grow jobs, the jobs available tend “to be lowerpaying jobs on balance. Unless we have some sector that creates a lot more higher-paying jobs, that’s not going to change much.”

Source: Sun Sentinel, January 26, 2015

Florida exports reached nearly $59 billion in 2014

• Exports from Florida topped $58 billion in 2014, helping the U.S. reach record goods and services exports totaling $2.35 trillion according the U.S. Department of Commerce. • Leading exports were from computer and electronic products ($14 billion), followed by transportation equipment ($8.7 billion), and chemicals ($7.2 billion). • The state’s exports were reported to support nearly 275,000 jobs.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 26, 2015

March 2 015

METROS

FLORIDA FORECAST

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 5.1 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $34,600. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at $42,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be moderate at 3.6 percent. Population growth will average 1.3 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 13,557.74 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 600,756 as of July 1, 2013 census (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 281,827 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.4% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 17,954 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.8 percent each year. Unemployment will average 5.8 percent.

• Halifax Health – 4,709

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 7.2 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.9 percent annually. The Other Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to experience a decline, at -0.8 percent.

• County of Volusia – 3,341

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503 • Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256 • Daytona State College – 1,568

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

Intracoastal Bank set to open Volusia branch

• Intracoastal Bank opened its full-service banking facility February 1st, its first in Volusia County. Previously, Intracoastal Bank only operated in the area as a lending center.

• Intracoastal Bank has been successful in Flagler County and has even developed a strong following from Volusia County, which owns $50 million of the $215 million total bank deposits. • The business has seen an 18% increase in total assets since the end of its last fiscal year, having a total of $237 million. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, January 24, 2015

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Hampton Inn opens in DeLand: 5-story hotel adds 94 rooms, employs 30 workers

• In January, Hampton Inn & Suites opened its doors, marking the first addition to hotels in DeLand over the past decade. The hotel currently employs 30 workers. • This construction project cost an estimated $4.6 million.

• This five-story hotel includes 94 rooms with other amenities such as free WiFi and a microwave and refrigerator. This hotel is believed to be a great addition to the area, with out-of-town lodging scarce in north DeLand. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, January 30, 2015 Tourism revenues jump in Volusia: Collections from hotels, vacation properties rise 17 pct.

• Volusia County saw a 17 percent increase in tourism tax revenue in December of 2014 when compared to last year’s wrap up. Hotel occupancy and the average room rate also increased over the year. • This increase is said to be due to great weather and advertising efforts by Southeast Volusia Advertising Authority.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, February 9, 2015 Volusia-Flagler January home prices rise, sales split

• Increased median housing prices can be seen in both Flagler and Volusia County in January 2015, compared to January of last year.

Weather, room rates help hotels during Bike Week

• With Daytona Beach’s Bike Week, many local hotels experienced either a completely sold out or near sold out occupancy, despite the attendance rate this year possibly being slightly less that of last year. • With spectacular warm weather in Daytona coupled with the North’s weather being particularly rough this year, room rates were higher during Bike Week this year compared to last year, ending in overall greater returns. • Nancy Keefer, president and CEO of the Daytona Regional Chamber of Commerce, theorized that harsh weather impacting travel may have also been the cause for a decrease in attendance this year.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, March 16, 2015 Flagler, Volusia jobless rates fall

• Flagler County has jumped out of any of the top three spots among the counties with the highest unemployment rates for the first time since 2009, having a 6.9 percent unemployment rate as of January 2015. In January of 2014, Flagler County’s unemployment rate was 8.2 percent. • Volusia County, which had an unemployment rate of 7.3 percent in January of 2014, now has an unemployment rate of 6.3 percent as of January of 2015. • Since January of 2014, employers in the FlaglerVolusia area have added 6,500 jobs.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, March 17, 2015

• Flagler county saw a slight decrease in the number of closed sales in January 2015 compared to January 2014, with with a median sale price of $155,000, a $20,000 increase from the median price of January 2014.

• Compared to January 2014, January 2015 in Volusia county saw a greater number of closed sales. The median price was $130,000 in January 2015 and only $113,900 in January 2014. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, February 23, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y tona B each â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r mon d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

(percent)

14500.0

10.0%

14000.0

8.0%

13500.0

6.0%

13000.0

(Thousands)

170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

11500.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0

1.2

12500.0

4.0% 2.0%

1.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

0.8

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

16.2 3.9 5.7 10.6 15.9 2.2 32.7 32.2 36.6 2.5

16.6 2.7 5.7 10.9 16.0 0.2 33.6 32.2 36.7 0.3

17.0 2.1 5.9 11.1 16.0 0.2 34.1 32.1 37.8 2.9

17.3 1.8 6.0 11.3 16.1 0.6 34.4 32.0 38.0 0.5

18.0 4.2 6.3 11.7 16.6 2.8 35.5 32.6 39.0 2.7

18.8 4.2 6.6 12.2 17.2 3.9 36.6 33.6 40.1 2.8

19.7 4.9 7.0 12.7 17.7 2.9 37.9 34.1 41.5 3.5

20.9 6.0 7.4 13.5 18.4 3.9 39.6 34.9 43.1 3.9

22.0 5.5 7.8 14.2 19.0 3.3 41.3 35.6 44.9 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 153.6 154.2 155.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 0.4 0.7 Manufacturing 7.5 8.1 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 8.5 3.4 Nonmanufacturing 146.0 146.0 146.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 0.0 0.6 Construction & Mining 7.9 7.4 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.6 -6.3 2.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.0 30.0 30.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.2 0.6 Wholesale Trade 4.7 4.8 4.7 Retail Trade 23.3 23.4 23.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.9 1.8 1.9 Information 2.0 2.0 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.9 -1.6 -1.3 Financial Activities 7.2 7.3 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 2.2 3.9 Prof & Business Services 15.4 15.7 16.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 1.6 4.0 Educ & Health Services 31.7 32.3 32.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.9 0.2 Leisure & Hospitality 21.5 22.1 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 2.9 2.4 Other Services 7.9 7.4 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 -6.3 -0.8 Federal Government 1.5 1.3 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 -15.9 -11.1 State & Local Government 20.9 20.5 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -2.0 -3.9

157.2 1.3 9.0 6.9 148.2 0.9 8.2 7.6 30.0 -0.5 4.3 23.7 2.0 1.8 -7.6 7.7 1.2 17.2 5.3 32.7 1.3 23.1 1.8 7.4 -0.1 1.1 -3.0 19.1 -3.3

160.2 1.9 9.4 4.3 150.8 1.7 8.5 3.8 30.0 0.1 4.2 23.9 2.0 1.7 -5.4 7.7 0.4 18.7 9.0 32.6 -0.6 23.8 3.0 7.7 5.0 1.1 0.1 19.0 -0.6

164.1 2.5 9.6 1.7 154.6 2.5 8.9 5.3 30.7 2.1 4.3 24.3 1.9 1.7 -1.3 7.9 2.5 20.0 6.6 32.7 0.6 24.6 3.3 8.1 4.4 1.1 0.1 19.0 0.0

167.6 2.1 9.7 1.4 157.9 2.1 9.7 8.9 31.0 1.2 4.4 24.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 8.0 1.0 20.9 4.8 33.5 2.3 24.7 0.8 8.2 1.3 1.1 -0.9 19.0 0.3

170.3 1.6 9.8 0.8 160.5 1.7 10.6 9.0 31.2 0.5 4.6 24.4 2.1 1.8 0.9 8.0 -0.4 21.6 3.1 34.0 1.5 25.0 1.0 8.2 0.2 1.1 -1.0 19.2 1.1

172.1 1.1 9.8 0.2 162.3 1.1 11.2 5.8 31.3 0.3 4.6 24.3 2.1 1.8 0.7 7.9 -1.2 21.8 1.2 34.3 1.0 25.3 1.1 8.2 0.3 1.1 -1.3 19.5 1.3

502.7 0.9 251.8 -0.1 7.3 1434.4 1220.1 214

507.5 0.9 256.1 1.7 6.0 1454.7 1285.7 169

512.7 1.0 264.6 3.3 5.6 2232.3 1731.1 501

519.6 1.3 272.3 2.9 5.8 3225.8 2357.9 868

526.5 1.3 278.9 2.4 5.8 3794.6 2880.5 914

533.4 1.3 285.2 2.2 5.9 3900.9 2954.8 946

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

494.8 0.0 252.0 -0.2 11.5 719.2 658.9 60

495.5 0.1 252.1 0.0 10.6 1023.7 504.7 519

498.4 0.6 252.1 0.0 8.9 766.0 748.9 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.5 4.8 6.5 12.1

18.7 4 6.6 12.1

18.8 3.9 6.7 12.2

19 4.1 6.8 12.3

19.3 4.1 6.8 12.5

19.5 4.6 6.9 12.6

19.8 5.2 7 12.8

20.1 5.7 7.1 13

20.5 6 7.2 13.2

20.7 6.1 7.3 13.4

21 6 7.4 13.6

21.3 5.8 7.5 13.8

21.6 5.6 7.6 14

21.9 5.6 7.7 14.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.1 4.5

17.2 3.9

17.3 3.9

17.3 3.3

17.5 2.3

17.6 2.6

17.8 3

18 3.6

18.2 3.9

18.3 4

18.5 3.9

18.6 3.6

18.8 3.4

18.9 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.3 33.5

36.5 33.5

36.7 33.6

36.9 33.7

37.3 33.8

37.7 34

38.1 34.2

38.5 34.4

39 34.7

39.5 34.9

39.8 35

40.2 35.2

40.7 35.4

41.1 35.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.6 2.5

39.9 2.7

40.2 2.9

40.6 3

40.9 3.3

41.3 3.5

41.6 3.6

42 3.7

42.4 3.7

42.9 3.9

43.3 4

43.8 4.1

44.2 4.2

44.7 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

162.6 2.3

163.7 2.2

164.6 2.6

165.5 2.7

166.3 2.3

167.1 2.1

168 2.1

168.8 2

169.4 1.9

170 1.7

170.6 1.5

171.1 1.3

171.3 1.1

171.9 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 1.6

9.5 1.1

9.6 2

9.6 1.6

9.7 1.5

9.7 0.8

9.8 0.8

9.8 0.9

9.8 0.6

9.8 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

153.1 2.3

154.2 2.3

155.1 2.6

155.9 2.7

156.7 2.3

157.4 2.1

158.3 2.1

159.2 2.1

159.7 1.9

160.3 1.8

160.8 1.6

161.3 1.3

161.6 1.2

162.1 1.1

8.7 2.8

8.8 3.9

9 5.9

9.2 8.6

9.4 8.2

9.6 8.6

9.8 9.3

10.1 9.6

10.3 10

10.5 9.4

10.7 8.6

10.9 7.9

11 6.6

11.1 6.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 0.9

30.6 1.6

30.8 3

30.9 2.9

31 2

31 1.4

31.1 1

31.1 0.7

31.1 0.5

31.2 0.5

31.2 0.6

31.3 0.5

31.3 0.6

31.3 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 24.2 1.9

4.3 24.3 1.9

4.3 24.4 1.9

4.3 24.5 2

4.4 24.5 2

4.5 24.4 2

4.5 24.4 2.1

4.6 24.4 2.1

4.6 24.3 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -3.6

1.7 -1.7

1.7 -1.3

1.7 1.6

1.7 0.9

1.7 1.5

1.8 2.7

1.7 1.5

1.7 1.7

1.8 0.9

1.8 0.1

1.8 0.8

1.8 0.7

1.8 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 2.2

7.9 2.7

7.9 3.1

8 2.1

8 1.9

8 1.4

8 0.6

8 0.2

8 -0.1

8 -0.2

8 -0.4

7.9 -0.8

7.9 -1.1

7.9 -1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 7.4

19.8 7.1

20.1 6.7

20.3 5.1

20.6 5.2

20.8 4.7

21 4.7

21.3 4.6

21.4 4.3

21.5 3.6

21.6 2.7

21.7 1.9

21.7 1.4

21.8 1.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.5 0.8

32.7 -0.4

32.8 -0.2

32.9 2

33.1 1.8

33.4 2.1

33.6 2.4

33.8 2.8

33.8 2.2

34 1.6

34 1.2

34.1 0.8

34.1 0.7

34.3 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 3.4

24.5 4.1

24.6 3.4

24.7 2.1

24.7 1.4

24.7 0.7

24.7 0.5

24.8 0.4

24.9 0.4

24.9 1

25 1.2

25.1 1.4

25.2 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8 6.6

8 5.8

8.1 3.2

8.1 2.1

8.1 1.5

8.2 1.4

8.2 1.2

8.2 1

8.2 0.7

8.2 0.3

8.2 0

8.2 -0.2

8.2 -0.1

8.2 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 0.6

1.1 -0.5

1.1 0.2

1.1 0

1.1 -0.8

1.1 -1

1.1 -0.9

1.1 -1

1.1 -1.1

1.1 -1.3

19 -0.3

19 -0.7

18.9 0.6

18.9 0.2

19 0

19 0.1

19 0.3

19.1 0.6

19.1 0.9

19.2 1

19.2 1.2

19.3 1.3

19.4 1.2

19.4 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

510.4 0.9

511.8 1

513.4 1.1

515.1 1.2

516.8 1.3

518.6 1.3

520.4 1.4

522.3 1.4

524 1.4

525.6 1.4

527.3 1.3

528.9 1.3

530.5 1.2

532.4 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

261.1 2.7

263.7 2.9

265.9 3.8

267.7 3.8

269.5 3.2

271.4 2.9

273.3 2.8

274.9 2.7

276.5 2.6

278.1 2.5

279.8 2.4

281.3 2.3

282.8 2.3

284.4 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.7

5.8

5.9

1783 1457 326

2096 1681 415

2415 1848 567

2636 1939 697

2854 2080 774

3101 2224 877

3326 2423 902

3623 2704 918

3758 2820 938

3770 2873 898

3821 2912 909

3829 2918 912

3843 2929 915

3867 2951 915

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Gaines v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the central-north portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 5.0 percent growth, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $38,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $48,500. Population growth will average the second lowest of the studied areas at 0.9 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 10,711.93 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.3 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 4.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 7.3 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with an average annual growth rate of -1.4 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 137,732 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,048 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000

• Alachua County School Board – 4,200

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500 • City of Gainesville – 2,270

• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Gainesville fast becoming ‘a growth area’

• The real estate market in Gainesville has rapidly picked up over the past year. According to Beery, of Coldwell Banker Commercial M.M. Parrish Realtors, sale prices went up 29 percent in commercial real estate and there was a 60 percent increase in sales due to the boost in demand.

• David Hass, Chief Operating Officer of Florida developer and homebuilder ICI Homes, explained that the market is being driven by the increase in hiring, by hundreds, at the University of Florida and the work being done at UF Health Shands Hospital. • Gainesville Mayor Ed Braddy said, “The city has been working to create an environment that is more conducive to business growth by looking at the

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gaines v ille

regulatory code, changing some leadership positions and trying to lower utility rates.” Source: Gainesville Sun, January 22, 2015 $6M pledged to area effort to create 3,500 jobs, $250M in capital investments • Local businesses pledged to help created 3,500 jobs and $250 million in capital investments through the five-year plan outlined by the Council for Economic Outreach. • Susan Davenport, Vice President of Economic Development, said 700 new jobs could be created each year through the completion of 10 business projects.

• Opportunities for children is an underlying motive in upping the goals in the “Transforming Greater Gainesville” plan, said Tim Giuliani, President and CEO of the Gainesville Area Chamber of Commerce and the council. They are planning on taking a more aggressive approach to increase the opportunities in the community. Source: Gainesville Sun, January 21, 2015 Plan to close school infuriates Waldo residents

• Owen Roberts, Superintendent of Alachua County Public Schools, broke the news to the Waldo community members, teachers, and parents that they would be closing Waldo Community’s elementary school to everyone except pre-kindergarten and Head Start students. • This isn’t the first school to be closed in the area; Duval and Rawlings elementary schools in east Gainesville were combined, misplacing student and teachers.

• Many who attended the meeting were outraged by the news and now have to face their children or jobs being misplaced due to the school closing. Source: Gainesville Sun, March 2, 2015

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Nanotherapeutics secures $28.5M in financing for new facility

• A manufacturing facility in Alachua will be home to Nanotherapeutics, a biotech company. The facility will employ about 150 people with salaries averaging $90,000. • The facility started construction in 2013 and just received enough money to complete the building. The plant is being built around Progress Park on 30 acres of land, with a total cost of $135 million. • The company makes biodefense and medical products. They have loans, contracts, and grants from multiple capital investment companies worth millions. One of their contracts is for the Department of Defense, developing and manufacturing products to help fight threats to the nation.

Source: Gainesville Sun, March 18, 2015 Yvonne Hinson-Rawls: Gainesville faces a brighter future

• The commissioner of District 1, Yvonne HinsonRawls, has made drastic improvements in the area over the past three years. There has been an increase in employment throughout the entire city due to successful job fairs. • An increase in employment has helped spark improvements in the area including work on the drainage systems, parks, pools, and nature areas.

• District 1 has bettered areas, like reducing summer crime through prevention, with the help of Summer Heatwave by doubling its number of participants. They also purchased the Gainesville Empowerment Center, a resource that will be used by the community. Source: Gainesville Sun, February 26, 2015

Gaines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

11500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10500.0

8.0%

10000.0

6.0%

9500.0 9000.0

4.0%

8500.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8000.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment 138.0 136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0 126.0 124.0 122.0

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Gainesville Payroll Employment

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gaines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

9.4 4.3 5.2 4.2 9.3 2.6 35.5 35.0 40.8 1.3

9.9 5.3 5.3 4.7 9.5 2.8 37.1 35.7 41.4 1.4

10.0 1.1 5.4 4.6 9.5 -0.8 37.2 35.1 42.1 1.9

10.3 2.3 5.6 4.7 9.6 1.1 37.8 35.2 43.1 2.2

10.6 3.7 5.8 4.9 9.8 2.4 38.9 35.8 44.1 2.4

11.1 4.6 6.1 5.0 10.2 4.4 40.3 37.0 45.8 3.9

11.7 4.7 6.4 5.2 10.5 2.6 41.9 37.6 47.4 3.5

12.3 5.6 6.8 5.6 10.8 3.5 43.8 38.6 49.3 4.0

12.9 5.2 7.1 5.9 11.2 3.0 45.7 39.5 51.4 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 126.7 126.7 128.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 0.0 1.1 Manufacturing 4.4 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -0.9 0.4 Nonmanufacturing 122.2 122.3 123.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 0.1 1.1 Construction & Mining 4.2 3.9 4.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0 -8.7 10.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 17.9 18.1 18.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 1.0 0.6 Wholesale Trade 2.3 2.4 2.5 Retail Trade 13.2 13.4 13.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.3 2.4 Information 1.5 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 -0.5 -2.9 Financial Activities 6.0 6.1 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 2.0 3.6 Prof & Business Services 10.4 10.8 11.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 3.7 4.5 Educ & Health Services 22.1 22.4 22.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.1 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality 13.2 13.3 13.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 0.8 0.7 Other Services 4.1 4.1 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 0.7 -1.6 Federal Government 4.7 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.9 -6.1 -1.2 State & Local Government 38.1 37.8 37.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -0.8 -0.7

128.9 0.6 4.5 1.5 124.4 0.6 4.3 1.2 18.3 0.6 2.6 13.1 2.5 1.5 1.7 6.2 -1.7 11.4 1.1 23.2 1.4 13.8 2.6 4.0 -0.4 4.4 0.6 37.4 -0.4

130.6 1.3 4.6 2.1 126.0 1.3 4.1 -5.6 18.6 1.8 2.7 13.3 2.5 1.4 -3.4 6.2 -0.5 11.5 1.3 24.1 3.9 14.5 4.9 4.0 -1.2 4.3 -3.2 37.4 0.1

133.1 1.9 4.6 1.5 128.5 2.0 4.3 5.4 19.2 3.0 2.9 13.6 2.6 1.5 3.8 6.3 1.7 12.0 3.7 24.5 1.7 14.9 3.0 4.0 1.1 4.3 -0.3 37.6 0.6

134.9 1.4 4.7 1.5 130.2 1.3 4.7 9.2 19.3 0.9 3.0 13.6 2.7 1.5 1.1 6.4 0.8 12.5 4.6 24.9 1.7 15.0 0.6 4.1 0.6 4.2 -1.6 37.7 0.2

136.4 1.1 4.7 1.0 131.7 1.1 5.1 9.1 19.4 0.2 3.0 13.5 2.8 1.5 0.3 6.3 -0.7 12.9 2.9 25.1 0.8 15.1 0.8 4.0 -0.4 4.1 -1.7 38.1 1.1

137.3 0.7 4.8 0.4 132.6 0.7 5.4 5.6 19.4 -0.1 3.1 13.3 2.8 1.5 0.0 6.2 -1.4 13.0 0.9 25.2 0.3 15.2 1.0 4.0 -0.2 4.0 -2.0 38.6 1.3

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

271.4 0.8 140.2 -0.4 5.5 721.7 506.3 215

273.4 0.7 142.4 1.6 4.9 726.4 499.7 227

275.9 0.9 146.5 2.9 4.5 954.8 591.6 363

278.4 0.9 150.1 2.4 4.2 1130.4 659.4 471

280.8 0.9 152.8 1.8 4.1 1249.0 777.2 472

283.1 0.8 154.9 1.4 4.2 1283.7 792.0 492

265.1 0.6 138.7 0.7 8.0 510.9 406.6 104

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

267.2 0.8 139.9 0.8 7.7 446.4 299.4 147

269.4 0.8 140.8 0.7 6.6 574.8 397.6 177

Gaines v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11 5 6 5

11.1 4.7 6.1 5

11.2 4.6 6.2 5

11.3 4.3 6.2 5

11.4 4 6.3 5.1

11.6 4.4 6.4 5.2

11.7 4.9 6.5 5.3

11.9 5.4 6.5 5.3

12.1 5.6 6.6 5.4

12.2 5.7 6.7 5.5

12.4 5.7 6.8 5.6

12.5 5.5 6.9 5.7

12.7 5.3 7 5.8

12.9 5.3 7.1 5.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 4.8

10.2 4.7

10.2 4.6

10.3 3.5

10.4 2.1

10.4 2.4

10.5 2.7

10.6 3.2

10.7 3.6

10.8 3.6

10.9 3.5

11 3.3

11.1 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40 36.9

40.2 37

40.4 37

40.7 37.1

41.2 37.3

41.6 37.5

42 37.7

42.6 38

43.1 38.3

43.6 38.5

44 38.7

44.5 38.9

45.1 39.2

45.5 39.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.3 3.7

45.6 4

46 4.2

46.4 3.7

46.8 3.4

47.2 3.5

47.6 3.6

48.1 3.7

48.5 3.8

49 3.9

49.6 4.1

50.1 4.2

50.6 4.3

51.2 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

132.4 1.7

132.9 2.3

133.4 2

133.8 1.8

134.3 1.4

134.7 1.3

135.2 1.3

135.6 1.4

136 1.3

136.3 1.2

136.6 1

136.8 0.9

137 0.7

137.2 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 1.6

4.6 1.5

4.6 0.9

4.7 2.2

4.7 1.8

4.7 1.6

4.7 1.7

4.7 1

4.7 0.9

4.8 0.9

4.8 1.1

4.8 0.8

4.8 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

127.8 1.7

128.3 2.3

128.7 2.1

129.1 1.8

129.6 1.4

130 1.3

130.4 1.3

130.9 1.4

131.2 1.3

131.5 1.2

131.8 1

132.1 0.9

132.2 0.7

132.5 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 2.3

4.2 4.1

4.3 6.8

4.4 8.3

4.5 8.2

4.6 8.8

4.7 9.7

4.9 10

5 10.4

5.1 9.7

5.2 8.7

5.2 7.8

5.3 6.5

5.4 6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19 2.7

19.1 3.4

19.2 3.5

19.3 2.4

19.3 1.6

19.3 1.1

19.3 0.7

19.4 0.4

19.4 0.2

19.4 0.3

19.4 0.2

19.4 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.9 13.5 2.6

2.9 13.6 2.6

2.9 13.6 2.7

3 13.6 2.7

3 13.5 2.8

3.1 13.4 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 3.5

1.5 6.1

1.5 4.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.3

1.5 1

1.5 2.1

1.5 1

1.5 1.2

1.5 0.4

1.5 -0.5

1.5 0.1

1.5 -0.1

1.5 -0.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 0.5

6.3 1.5

6.3 2.6

6.3 2

6.4 1.7

6.4 1.2

6.4 0.4

6.3 0

6.3 -0.3

6.3 -0.5

6.3 -0.7

6.3 -1.1

6.2 -1.4

6.2 -1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 1.9

11.9 4

12 4.1

12.2 5

12.3 5

12.4 4.6

12.6 4.6

12.7 4.4

12.8 4

12.9 3.4

12.9 2.5

12.9 1.6

13 1.2

13 1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 2.1

24.5 1.8

24.5 1.5

24.6 1.4

24.7 1.2

24.9 1.5

25 1.8

25.1 2.2

25.1 1.6

25.1 1

25.1 0.6

25.1 0.1

25.2 0.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 3.1

14.9 3.6

14.9 3.3

15 1.9

15 1.2

15 0.6

15 0.3

15 0.2

15.1 0.7

15.1 1

15.2 1.2

15.2 1

15.2 1.1

4 0.1

4 1.5

4 1.3

4.1 1.6

4.1 1

4.1 0.8

4.1 0.5

4.1 0.3

4.1 0

4 -0.4

4 -0.6

4 -0.8

4 -0.6

4 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -0.5

4.3 0.6

4.2 -0.5

4.2 -0.6

4.2 -1.4

4.2 -1.6

4.2 -1.7

4.1 -1.6

4.1 -1.7

4.1 -1.8

4.1 -2

4 -2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 0.9

37.6 1.1

37.6 0.3

37.6 0.2

37.6 -0.1

37.7 0

37.7 0.3

37.8 0.5

37.9 0.8

38 1

38.1 1.2

38.3 1.3

38.4 1.2

38.5 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

274.9 0.8

275.6 0.9

276.3 1

276.9 1

277.5 0.9

278.2 0.9

278.7 0.9

279.3 0.8

279.9 0.8

280.5 0.8

281.1 0.9

281.7 0.9

282.3 0.8

282.8 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

144.7 2.1

146.1 2.4

147.1 3.4

148 3.5

148.8 2.8

149.7 2.5

150.5 2.3

151.2 2.2

151.8 2

152.5 1.9

153.1 1.7

153.6 1.6

154.1 1.5

154.6 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.2

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

847 552 295

917 594 323

1007 614 394

1048 607 441

1069 616 452

1113 629 483

1130 658 472

1210 734 476

1246 763 484

1238 776 463

1255 785 470

1256 785 471

1267 788 479

1270 793 477

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ackson v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.5 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $43,300, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $53,800. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 67,017.33 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 713,099 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.8% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 41,113 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820

• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500

• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200

• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development 40

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Employment growth is expected to average 2.2 percent annually. Unemployment will average 5.2 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 7.0 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent, and then the Educational and Health Services sector with an average growth rate of 2.5 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.1 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Scott’s $9.9 billion transportation budget includes major construction in Jacksonville

• Governor Rick Scott requested a $9.9 billion budget for the Florida Department of Transportation as part of a $77 billion budget delivered to the Legislature. Lawmakers will consider the proposal this spring. • The funding, which is down from the current year’s record of $10.1 billion, includes $4.8 billion for highway projects, $109.6 million for seaport upgrades, $350 million for aviation, and $242.6 million for repair/replacement of 108 bridges.

• Included in the key road projects is a $179.4 million construction of an interchange at Interstate 95 at I-295 in Jacksonville. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, January 30, 2015

J ackson v ille

Planned Downtown Jacksonville aquarium secures funding for feasibility study

• AquaJax, the group who is advocating for a Downtown Jacksonville aquarium, will pay Massachusetts-based ConsultEcon $50,000 to conduct a feasibility study including cost estimates, funding options, operations, site locations, and other issues.

will also provide Amports with up to $3 million for infrastructure improvements to accommodate Volkswagen’s needs. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 26, 2015 Here’s the value of the NCAA Tournament to Jacksonville

• The study is being funded by “local investors” according to George Harrell, co-founder and president of AquaJax. Three sites are currently being considered for the aquarium, all of which are on the Northbank.

• Jacksonville’s Veterans Memorial Arena will host eight games for the second and third rounds of the NCAA tournament, the third time since 2006. The games will be played over three sessions.

• The study should be completed in six to eight weeks, at which point AquaJax hopes to focus on public fundraising efforts which will target both corporate and individual investors for philanthropic backing, along with partnering with public entities such as JEA and JTA.

• Alan Verlander, tournament director, believes the impact could be $15 million this year, and expects a sellout for each session. The arena holds 14,000 fans, with a three-session ticket priced at $264, and an individual session at $88.

• Aquarium plans have been in the works for almost two years. Initial estimates for construction range from $100 to $120 million.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 19, 2015 Volkswagen gets nearly $18 million in incentives to come to Jaxport • Volkswagen Group is moving its southeast U.S. import and distribution facility to the Port of Jacksonville. Amports, which will process the vehicles, expects to hire 100 new employees.

• The Jacksonville Port Authority pledged almost $18 million in incentives to Volkswagen. The company expects to import about 568,000 VW’s, Audis, Bentleys, Buggatis, Lamborghinis, and possibly Porsches during the five-year contract.

• As part of the agreement, Jaxport agreed to pay Volkswagen $1 million in reimbursements for expenses caused by relocating, $21.13 for each imported vehicle—up to a maximum of $12 million—processed through Jacksonville during the 5-year term, and $3 for each vehicle imported or exported through Jacksonville with no limit. Jaxport

• The 2010 tournament brought in an estimated $12 million for the city, with only about $20,000 in taxpayer dollars spent on the event—everything else was total revenue for the city.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 17, 2015 JTA receives $26 million in federal grants for rapid bus system • The Jacksonville Transportation Authority received $26.3 million in federal grant dollars to fund the north corridor of its rapid bus transit system. • The 9.4-mile north corridor line is the second to be built as part of five phases planned for the rapid transit system. The Federal Transit Authority is contributing almost 80 percent of the $33.2 million project, and the Florida Department of Transportation and Jacksonville Transportation Authority will each pay about 10 percent.

• With 18 stations, the north route will run along Lem Turner from Broad Street and follow Lem Turner to Armsdale Road, where there will be a park and ride. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 18, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ackson v ille Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.8

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 75000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

70000.0

55000.0

4.0%

50000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

45000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment

1.4

60000.0

6.0%

700.0 680.0 660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0

1.2

65000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income

J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

53.3 3.8 27.7 25.5 52.4 2.1 39.4 38.8 46.3 2.4

55.7 4.5 28.5 27.2 53.5 2.0 40.8 39.1 47.1 1.7

59.1 6.1 29.8 29.3 55.7 4.2 42.7 40.3 48.7 3.3

60.2 1.9 30.5 29.7 56.1 0.6 43.0 40.0 48.9 0.5

63.0 4.7 32.1 30.9 57.9 3.3 44.4 40.8 49.9 2.0

66.0 4.7 33.8 32.2 60.5 4.5 45.8 42.0 50.9 2.0

69.5 5.3 35.7 33.8 62.5 3.3 47.5 42.7 52.6 3.4

73.8 6.2 37.8 36.0 65.0 4.1 49.7 43.8 54.7 3.9

78.0 5.7 39.9 38.2 67.3 3.5 51.8 44.7 57.0 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 580.0 586.4 594.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.1 1.4 Manufacturing 27.5 27.4 27.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -0.1 1.6 Nonmanufacturing 552.6 559.0 566.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1.2 1.4 Construction & Mining 29.2 27.5 27.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.7 -5.6 1.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 124.4 124.1 125.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 -0.2 1.1 Wholesale Trade 25.6 24.8 24.7 Retail Trade 68.8 69.0 70.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.0 30.3 30.6 Information 10.2 9.6 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -5.6 -4.0 Financial Activities 55.7 58.0 60.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 4.1 3.5 Prof & Business Services 82.4 87.6 91.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 6.3 3.9 Educ & Health Services 85.7 87.8 89.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.4 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 65.0 66.3 69.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 2.0 4.1 Other Services 23.0 21.6 20.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -6.0 -5.9 Federal Government 18.0 17.3 17.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 -3.8 -0.4 State & Local Government 59.1 59.2 57.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 -3.0

608.5 2.3 28.1 0.7 580.5 2.4 30.2 8.7 128.2 2.2 25.1 71.9 31.2 9.1 -1.2 61.0 1.7 94.5 3.8 90.7 1.7 72.4 4.9 20.4 0.2 17.0 -1.4 56.9 -0.8

627.9 3.2 28.5 1.5 599.4 3.3 32.1 6.2 130.7 2.0 25.1 73.4 32.2 9.1 -0.2 61.6 1.0 102.1 8.1 91.7 1.1 78.1 7.9 20.5 0.8 16.7 -1.9 56.7 -0.3

648.4 3.3 29.2 2.7 619.2 3.3 34.4 7.1 135.0 3.3 25.8 75.8 33.1 9.1 -0.3 62.8 1.9 107.2 5.1 95.2 3.8 81.0 3.7 21.0 2.1 16.6 -0.4 56.8 0.2

663.8 2.4 29.7 1.4 634.1 2.4 36.6 6.3 137.9 2.1 26.6 76.4 34.4 9.1 0.8 63.6 1.3 112.0 4.4 98.1 3.1 82.1 1.3 21.2 1.1 16.5 -1.1 57.1 0.4

676.8 2.0 29.9 0.8 646.9 2.0 39.5 8.1 140.0 1.5 27.4 76.5 35.6 9.2 0.5 63.7 0.1 115.8 3.5 99.9 1.8 83.4 1.6 21.3 0.3 16.2 -1.3 57.8 1.3

685.5 1.3 30.0 0.3 655.5 1.3 42.0 6.4 141.5 1.1 28.1 76.4 36.4 9.2 0.7 63.2 -0.8 117.7 1.6 101.0 1.1 84.8 1.6 21.4 0.7 16.0 -1.6 58.7 1.6

1400.7 1.3 702.0 0.7 6.9 7244.4 6125.6 1119

1420.4 1.4 723.4 3.1 5.9 7775.3 6460.1 1315

1441.2 1.5 744.2 2.9 5.4 9208.0 6784.9 2423

1462.7 1.5 758.4 1.9 5.3 10356.7 6882.6 3474

1484.4 1.5 772.2 1.8 5.1 11347.5 7879.5 3468

1506.2 1.5 786.4 1.8 5.1 11691.8 8115.2 3577

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1351.1 1.1 686.9 0.9 10.9 3713.9 3562.5 151

1365.5 1.1 691.3 0.6 9.9 3576.8 3173.8 403

1382.7 1.3 696.8 0.8 8.4 6373.2 4538.9 1834

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ackson v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

65 5.3 33.1 31.9

65.6 4.7 33.5 32.1

66.3 4.3 34 32.3

67 4.5 34.5 32.5

68.1 4.7 35 33.1

69 5.1 35.5 33.5

69.9 5.6 35.9 34

71 6 36.5 34.6

72.3 6.1 37 35.2

73.3 6.3 37.5 35.8

74.3 6.2 38 36.3

75.4 6.1 38.6 36.8

76.5 5.9 39.1 37.4

77.5 5.8 39.6 37.9

60 5.1

60.3 4.7

60.7 4.3

61.1 3.8

61.7 2.8

62.2 3.1

62.7 3.3

63.4 3.8

64.2 4.1

64.8 4.2

65.3 4.1

65.9 3.9

66.5 3.7

67.1 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.4 41.9

45.6 41.9

45.9 42.1

46.2 42.1

46.8 42.4

47.2 42.6

47.7 42.8

48.3 43.1

48.9 43.5

49.5 43.7

50 43.9

50.5 44.1

51.1 44.4

51.6 44.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.4 1.3

50.7 1.8

51.1 2.2

51.5 2.9

52 3.2

52.4 3.4

52.8 3.4

53.3 3.4

53.9 3.6

54.4 3.8

54.9 4

55.5 4.1

56.1 4.2

56.7 4.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

642.5 3.8

646.6 3.6

650.3 2.9

654.3 2.7

658.2 2.4

661.9 2.4

665.5 2.3

669.5 2.3

672.6 2.2

675.5 2.1

678.2 1.9

680.8 1.7

682.7 1.5

684.6 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.1 2.9

29.2 3.1

29.3 2.5

29.4 2.1

29.6 1.7

29.7 1.5

29.7 1.6

29.7 1

29.8 0.8

29.9 0.8

30 0.8

30 0.9

30 0.6

30 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

613.4 3.9

617.4 3.7

621 3

624.9 2.8

628.6 2.5

632.2 2.4

635.8 2.4

639.8 2.4

642.8 2.3

645.6 2.1

648.2 2

650.8 1.7

652.7 1.5

654.6 1.4

33.6 7.1

34.2 8.1

34.6 6.7

35.2 6.6

35.7 6.1

36.2 6.1

36.7 6.1

37.6 6.8

38.3 7.4

39.1 8

39.9 8.7

40.7 8.2

41.3 7.7

41.8 6.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

133.6 2.9

134.6 3.4

135.5 3.8

136.5 3.2

137 2.6

137.6 2.2

138.2 2

138.9 1.7

139.2 1.6

139.7 1.6

140.3 1.5

140.9 1.4

141.2 1.4

141.4 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.6 75.2 32.7

25.7 75.7 32.9

25.9 75.9 33.2

26.2 76.2 33.6

26.3 76.3 33.9

26.5 76.3 34.2

26.7 76.4 34.6

27 76.4 34.9

27.1 76.3 35.2

27.3 76.5 35.5

27.5 76.6 35.8

27.7 76.7 36

27.8 76.5 36.2

28 76.4 36.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 -1.2

9.1 -0.7

9 0.3

9.1 0.5

9.1 -0.1

9.2 0.7

9.2 1.9

9.1 0.8

9.2 1.1

9.2 0.5

9.2 -0.2

9.2 0.6

9.2 0.5

9.2 0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

62.4 3.4

62.6 1.7

62.9 0.7

63.2 1.9

63.5 1.6

63.6 1.5

63.6 1.1

63.7 0.9

63.8 0.5

63.8 0.3

63.6 0

63.5 -0.4

63.4 -0.7

63.2 -0.9

105.8 6.2

106.8 7.1

107.6 3.4

108.8 3.6

110 4

111.3 4.2

112.6 4.6

113.9 4.7

115.1 4.6

115.6 3.9

116 3.1

116.6 2.4

117.2 1.8

117.5 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

94.2 4.1

95 4.3

95.6 3.9

96 2.9

96.8 2.8

97.9 3.1

98.5 3.1

99.3 3.4

99.4 2.7

99.8 1.9

100 1.5

100.3 1

100.4 1

100.8 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

80.3 6.2

80.8 3.1

81.2 3

81.7 2.7

81.9 2

81.9 1.3

82.1 1.1

82.4 0.9

82.7 1

83.1 1.6

83.7 1.9

84.1 2.1

84.3 1.9

84.6 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 1.8

20.9 2.3

21 2.4

21.1 1.9

21.1 1.4

21.2 1.3

21.2 1

21.2 0.8

21.2 0.5

21.2 0.3

21.3 0.2

21.3 0.4

21.4 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 -1.3

16.7 -0.7

16.6 0.9

16.6 -0.3

16.5 -1

16.5 -1.2

16.4 -1.2

16.3 -1.2

16.2 -1.3

16.1 -1.5

16.1 -1.6

16 -1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

56.8 0.3

56.8 -0.1

56.9 0.1

56.9 0.4

56.9 0.2

57 0.3

57.1 0.5

57.3 0.8

57.5 1.1

57.7 1.3

57.9 1.4

58.1 1.5

58.4 1.5

58.6 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1433.2 1.4

1438.5 1.5

1443.9 1.5

1449.3 1.5

1454.6 1.5

1460 1.5

1465.4 1.5

1470.9 1.5

1476.3 1.5

1481.7 1.5

1487.1 1.5

1492.6 1.5

1498 1.5

1503.4 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

738.1 3.6

742.9 2.7

746.4 2.8

749.4 2.4

752.7 2

756.5 1.8

760.4 1.9

763.8 1.9

767 1.9

770.4 1.8

774 1.8

777.3 1.8

780.8 1.8

784.5 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

8600 6765 1836

9040 6898 2142

9520 6858 2662

9672 6619 3053

9830 6612 3219

10175 6649 3525

10381 6849 3532

11041 7421 3620

11310 7724 3586

11253 7855 3398

11397 7953 3443

11430 7985 3445

11530 8058 3472

11590 8125 3465

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

L akelan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland recently welcomed Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at average of 5.1 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $34,500, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.5 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $46,500. Population growth is expected to average 1.1 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 18,203.67 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 280,466 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.6% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,522 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,300

• Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 6.0 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 6.8 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 2.8 percent annual growth, and the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector averaging 1.5 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.2 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Little Room Left Amid Business Boom

• Lakeland has a vacancy rate among the lowest in the U.S., just behind the San Francisco Peninsula and Greater Los Angeles, at 3.7% as of the fourth quarter in 2014. • Lakeland’s area has been substantially used for industrial plots, becoming the prime space for warehouses and distribution sites.

• Some businesses still have plans in the works; however, finding space after these projects may be a hard task. Source: Lakeland Ledger, January 26, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

Leader’s Is Expanding to Lakeland

• Leader’s Casual Furniture will be opening a 20,000-square-foot business in South Lakeland, its 19th store. Eleven others are located in Central Florida while seven are located in South Florida. • “Leader’s has no current plans to expand into other new markets,” according to Ashley Newton, company representative, in order to control their growth and wait for an opportunity.

• Jim Steinbauer of Seinbauer Associates, who closed this deal, noticed there were not many large spaced areas available for businesses like Leader’s Casual Furniture. However, with the former Heritage House Home Interiors shop (later becoming an Ethan Allen Furniture store) out of business, this left room for Leader’s to enter the local business scene.

• ETI provides heating and cooling systems through geothermal energy and operates throughout all of the U.S. and in 16 other countries. Source: Lakeland Ledger, February 27, 2015 Lakeland Approves 2 New Solar Farms

• The City Commission of Lakeland has approved of the plans for two new solar farms that will be owned and operated by SunEdison. This will make for a total of five solar farms in the area. • This is all planned to be completed while the tax credit for solar construction is at 30%. After 2017, the tax credit will drop to 10%.

• Lakeland Electric will be buying electricity at 11.2 cents per kilowatt-hour when the construction for these two solar farms is completed.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, January 30, 2015

Source: Lakeland Ledger, March 2, 2015

Polk County Building Permits Point to Strong Start for 2015

Polk Job Advertisements Rise

• Records show that 174 permits for new, single-family homes were filed in the month of January in Polk County. • The amount of building permits per month has increased by a total of 15.2 percent since January 2014.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, February 18, 2015 EarthLinked Grows Business, Jobs

• EarthLinked Technologies Inc. (ETI), a Lakelandbased company, has increased its job growth across the board. Areas such as engineering, finance, and production have seen growth of 50 percent over the course of two years. • The President of EarthLinked Technologies Inc. believes the growth in jobs is due to hiring “local resources for talent,” such as students from Florida Polytechnic University and other local universities and trade schools.

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

• Polk online job advertisements in February saw a 21.7 percent increase from January, with a 12.5 percent overall increase over the year.

• Typically, January is the month holding the lowest number of available job advertisements, so this trend of increased job advertisements in February is a regular occurrence; however, taking into account the improving economy and the overall year growth, this 21.7 percent increase may be indicative of another development. • Once the data from the February Local Area Unemployment Statistics is made available, further interpretations into what this increase in job advertisements really means can be made. Source: Lakeland Ledger, March 9, 2015

L akelan d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

19000.0

17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

14000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0 180.0 175.0

1.5

18000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Lakeland Payroll Employment

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

19.9 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.5 4.2 32.8 32.3 39.8 2.1

21.3 7.2 7.7 13.5 20.4 4.6 34.8 33.4 40.5 1.6

20.7 -2.6 8.0 12.7 19.5 -4.3 33.5 31.6 41.3 2.0

21.4 3.4 8.3 13.1 20.0 2.1 34.2 31.9 42.0 1.6

22.3 4.3 8.6 13.7 20.5 2.9 35.3 32.5 43.0 2.4

23.3 4.2 9.0 14.3 21.4 3.9 36.4 33.4 44.1 2.5

24.5 5.0 9.5 14.9 22.0 3.0 37.9 34.0 45.5 3.4

25.9 5.9 10.0 15.9 22.8 3.8 39.6 34.9 47.3 3.8

27.3 5.4 10.6 16.8 23.6 3.2 41.3 35.6 49.2 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 191.1 190.1 192.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -0.5 1.3 Manufacturing 14.2 14.2 14.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3 0.0 2.9 Nonmanufacturing 176.9 175.9 178.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -0.6 1.2 Construction & Mining 11.0 10.4 10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.8 -5.9 -1.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 44.9 46.0 47.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 2.4 2.4 Wholesale Trade 8.7 9.0 9.2 Retail Trade 24.2 24.5 24.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.5 13.2 Information 1.8 1.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.0 -6.6 -3.0 Financial Activities 11.8 11.6 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 Prof & Business Services 25.7 24.3 25.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -5.4 4.4 Educ & Health Services 29.2 29.7 29.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.7 -0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 16.8 17.8 18.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 6.0 6.1 Other Services 5.8 5.4 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -7.0 -2.0 Federal Government 1.6 1.2 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 15.8 -24.6 -7.6 State & Local Government 28.4 28.0 27.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -1.6 -1.3

197.1 2.3 15.7 7.6 181.4 1.9 10.9 6.4 48.2 2.5 9.5 25.3 13.4 1.6 -1.6 11.6 1.6 26.2 3.3 29.9 1.6 19.6 3.8 5.2 -1.4 1.1 -3.8 27.1 -1.8

199.7 1.3 16.3 3.6 183.4 1.1 11.0 1.2 49.8 3.3 10.0 26.1 13.7 1.6 1.1 11.7 0.9 26.1 -0.6 30.4 1.8 20.2 3.2 5.3 0.7 1.0 -6.2 26.3 -2.8

203.6 2.0 16.6 1.9 187.0 2.0 11.5 4.3 50.9 2.2 10.3 26.4 14.0 1.6 2.3 11.9 1.3 27.0 3.6 30.9 1.6 20.7 2.4 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.0 26.1 -0.9

207.9 2.1 16.8 1.6 191.1 2.2 12.5 8.6 51.8 1.8 10.5 26.5 14.6 1.6 1.1 12.0 1.0 28.2 4.3 31.5 2.0 20.8 0.7 5.4 0.6 1.0 -1.5 26.2 0.2

211.2 1.6 17.0 0.9 194.2 1.7 13.6 8.7 52.5 1.2 10.8 26.3 15.1 1.7 0.3 11.9 -0.5 28.9 2.7 31.9 1.1 21.0 0.9 5.4 -0.5 1.0 -1.6 26.4 1.0

213.0 0.9 17.0 0.2 196.0 0.9 14.3 5.3 52.8 0.7 11.0 26.1 15.4 1.7 -0.1 11.8 -1.3 29.1 0.6 32.0 0.6 21.2 1.0 5.4 -0.4 1.0 -1.8 26.8 1.2

625.7 1.2 273.5 0.6 8.2 1924.7 1892.1 33

632.9 1.2 276.0 0.9 7.0 2588.3 2582.7 6

639.3 1.0 283.4 2.7 6.4 3365.1 3161.0 204

646.0 1.0 290.3 2.4 6.1 4273.9 3585.0 689

653.7 1.2 296.1 2.0 5.8 5037.3 4164.5 873

661.2 1.2 301.5 1.8 5.9 5140.9 4222.7 918

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

604.7 0.9 277.0 1.4 12.2 1224.4 1168.5 56

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

611.7 1.2 270.5 -2.3 11.6 1114.4 1058.9 56

618.2 1.1 272.0 0.6 10.0 1445.5 1392.6 53

L akelan d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23 4.7 8.9 14.1

23.2 3.7 9 14.2

23.4 4.1 9.1 14.3

23.6 4.2 9.2 14.4

24 4.3 9.3 14.6

24.3 4.8 9.5 14.8

24.6 5.3 9.6 15

25 5.8 9.7 15.3

25.4 6 9.9 15.5

25.7 6.1 10 15.8

26.1 6 10.1 16

26.4 5.7 10.2 16.2

26.8 5.6 10.4 16.4

27.2 5.5 10.5 16.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 4.4

21.3 3.7

21.4 4.1

21.5 3.5

21.7 2.4

21.9 2.7

22.1 3.1

22.3 3.6

22.6 3.9

22.8 4

22.9 3.9

23.1 3.5

23.3 3.3

23.5 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.1 33.3

36.3 33.3

36.5 33.4

36.8 33.6

37.2 33.7

37.6 33.9

38 34.1

38.5 34.4

39 34.7

39.4 34.9

39.8 35

40.2 35.2

40.7 35.4

41.1 35.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.6 2.1

43.9 2.4

44.2 2.8

44.6 2.8

45 3.2

45.3 3.4

45.7 3.4

46.1 3.5

46.6 3.6

47 3.7

47.5 3.9

48 4

48.5 4.1

49 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

201.8 1.8

203.1 1.1

204.2 2.3

205.3 2.6

206.3 2.2

207.3 2.1

208.4 2.1

209.5 2

210.2 1.9

210.9 1.7

211.6 1.5

212.1 1.3

212.4 1

212.9 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 1.8

16.6 1.4

16.6 2.2

16.7 2.1

16.8 1.7

16.9 1.7

16.9 1.1

16.9 1

17 0.9

17 0.8

17 0.9

17 0.5

17 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

185.3 1.8

186.5 1.1

187.6 2.4

188.6 2.6

189.6 2.3

190.5 2.1

191.5 2.1

192.6 2.1

193.3 2

193.9 1.8

194.5 1.6

195.1 1.3

195.4 1.1

195.8 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 2

11.4 2.5

11.6 5.1

11.8 7.8

12 7.6

12.3 8.2

12.6 9.2

12.9 9.5

13.2 9.9

13.4 9.3

13.7 8.3

13.9 7.5

14 6.2

14.2 5.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

50.4 2.3

50.8 1.5

51.1 2.1

51.4 2.9

51.6 2.3

51.7 1.9

51.9 1.7

52.1 1.4

52.2 1.3

52.4 1.3

52.6 1.2

52.7 1.1

52.8 1

52.8 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.2 26.3 13.8

10.2 26.5 13.9

10.3 26.5 14.1

10.4 26.5 14.3

10.4 26.5 14.4

10.5 26.5 14.5

10.6 26.4 14.7

10.7 26.4 14.8

10.7 26.3 14.9

10.8 26.3 15.1

10.9 26.3 15.2

10.9 26.3 15.3

11 26.2 15.4

11 26.1 15.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 4

1.6 2.5

1.6 1.9

1.6 1

1.6 0.3

1.6 1

1.7 2.1

1.6 1

1.7 1.2

1.7 0.4

1.7 -0.5

1.6 0.1

1.6 -0.1

1.7 -0.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 1

11.8 0.6

11.9 1.4

11.9 2.1

12 1.8

12 1.3

12 0.6

12 0.1

12 -0.2

11.9 -0.4

11.9 -0.5

11.9 -0.9

11.8 -1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.5 3.7

26.9 1.1

27.1 5.2

27.5 4.5

27.7 4.6

28 4.3

28.3 4.2

28.6 4.1

28.8 3.8

28.9 3.2

28.9 2.3

29 1.4

29.1 0.9

29.1 0.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 2

30.9 1.3

31 1.6

31 1.7

31.2 1.5

31.4 1.8

31.6 2.1

31.8 2.5

31.8 1.9

31.8 1.3

31.9 0.9

31.9 0.4

32 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.6 2.7

20.7 2.3

20.8 2.5

20.8 2.1

20.9 1.3

20.8 0.7

20.8 0.4

20.9 0.3

21 0.8

21.1 1.1

21.1 1.3

21.2 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 2.6

5.4 3

5.4 4.3

5.4 1.4

5.4 0.8

5.4 0.7

5.4 0.5

5.4 0.3

5.4 0

5.4 -0.4

5.4 -0.7

5.4 -0.9

5.4 -0.8

5.4 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1 0.3

1 -0.1

1 0.2

1 -0.5

1 -1.3

1 -1.5

1 -1.6

1 -1.5

1 -1.6

1 -1.7

1 -1.8

1 -1.9

26.1 -1.8

26.1 -1.5

26.1 -0.2

26.1 0.2

26.1 0

26.1 0.1

26.2 0.3

26.2 0.5

26.3 0.8

26.4 1

26.5 1.1

26.6 1.2

26.7 1.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

637 1

638.5 1

640.1 1

641.6 1

643.3 1

645 1

646.8 1.1

648.7 1.1

650.7 1.2

652.7 1.2

654.7 1.2

656.6 1.2

658.5 1.2

660.3 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

280.2 2.7

282.7 2.1

284.6 2.6

286.1 3.3

287.8 2.7

289.5 2.4

291.2 2.3

292.6 2.3

294 2.1

295.4 2

296.9 2

298.2 1.9

299.5 1.9

300.9 1.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.9

3003 2918 85

3284 3161 123

3528 3288 239

3646 3277 370

3857 3358 499

4089 3438 651

4348 3594 753

4801 3949 852

4981 4098 883

5013 4159 853

5078 4202 875

5078 4198 879

5083 4205 878

5114 4228 886

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.2 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $45,400 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.3 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be $55,900, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.3 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 298,368.34 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,033,592 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.5% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 167,351 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council 50

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.2 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 5.3 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at an average of 8.5 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 3.6 percent each year. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.8 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Dade OKs $10M for planned movie studio

• The Miami-Dade commissioners approved a $10 million subsidy for the construction of a movie studio in the Miami area. After completion, the proposed facility will be one of the largest studios outside of California.

• The construction of the facility will inject some much-needed investment to the county as well as increased relations with large Hollywood producers.

• Mayor Carlos Gimenez says that there is minimal risk to the public associated with the project and that the subsidy would only be used for infrastructure improvements. He further explains that the goal of the venture is to “diversify the economy.” • The money comes from the controversial economicdevelopment fund that allows Miami-Dade to

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

borrow money to help for-profit projects with infrastructural improvements to the county. Source: Miami Herald, January 21, 2015 10,000 Small Businesses: Program’s first graduates grow revenue, create jobs

• The 16-week business education program, 10,000 Small Businesses from Goldman Sachs, has graduated just over 70 small business owners in Miami and the larger South Florida area over the past year. • The program educates entrepreneurs in skills necessary for growing their business and offers expansive networking opportunities and opportunities for financial capital.

• Many of the graduates have already reported jumps in job growth and revenue; several claim doubled profits since starting the program.

• The program appears to be a great success, with 45 percent of all graduates creating new jobs within six months of graduating, and 64 percent increasing revenues within six months. Source: Miami Herald, February 8, 2015 30,000 new condos are proposed for Miami-Dade County in this cycle

• Compared to the international market, the condo market in Miami is relatively discounted to foreign buyers. This, in addition to the relative value of the USD, has benefitted the Miami-Dade economy.

• A new 30,000-unit condo proposal will be made by developers for the real estate cycle beginning in 2011. The units would be for the Miami-Dade County east of I-95 and the areas of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables.

Nearly 30 percent of Miami-Dade homeowners owe more than their property is worth

• Approximately one in three homeowners in the Miami-Dade area have a mortgage that has gone underwater according to a recent CoreLogic report. This amounts to 122,950 properties.

• Even though the South Florida housing market is in recovery, the recent statistics show that many are still suffering from the financial crisis. • Anand Nallathambi, CEO of CoreLogic, stated, “Negative equity continued to be a serious issue for the housing market and the U.S. economy at the end of 2014 with 5.4 million homeowners still ‘underwater.’” Source: Miami Herald, January 31, 2015 Nation’s Largest Mall Proposed for South Florida

• Triple Five developers has put forward a plan to construct a mall in northwestern Miami-Dade County, one even larger than Minnesota’s Mall of America.

• The complex, American Dream Miami, would be 200 acres and boast a Legoland, a sea creature exhibit, an artificial ski slope, and an indoor water park.

• The mall is projected to create 25,000 jobs and cost as much as $4 billion to build, quickly becoming Miami-Dade’s largest private-sector payroll.

• Mayor Carlos Gimenez says “the venture promises to provide a historic boost to the county’s economy” and will “attract visitors from around the world and sustain thousands of jobs.” Source: Fort Lauderdale Daily, March 5, 2015

• As of January 27, Miami-Dade holds 72.2 percent of the 324 new condo towers proposed for South Florida. Source: The Miami Herald, February 1, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t L au d e r d ale â&#x20AC;&#x201C; P ompano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 320000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

300000.0

220000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

200000.0

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0

1.2

240000.0

4.0%

2100.0

260000.0

6.0%

2700.0

0.8

280000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

231.9 3.6 107.0 124.9 228.1 1.9 41.4 40.7 48.4 1.6

246.9 6.5 110.9 136.0 237.1 3.9 43.3 41.6 49.3 1.8

258.3 4.6 115.8 142.5 243.5 2.7 44.7 42.1 50.3 2.1

264.5 2.4 120.1 144.3 246.4 1.2 45.2 42.1 50.8 1.0

276.5 4.5 126.4 150.0 254.2 3.2 46.6 42.9 52.0 2.2

288.6 4.4 133.3 155.3 264.7 4.1 48.1 44.1 53.1 2.1

303.1 5.0 140.8 162.4 272.6 3.0 49.9 44.8 54.8 3.2

321.1 5.9 148.7 172.4 283.0 3.8 52.2 46.0 56.8 3.7

338.6 5.5 156.6 182.1 292.2 3.2 54.3 46.9 59.1 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2195.0 2234.7 2287.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 1.8 2.4 Manufacturing 76.0 76.3 77.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 0.5 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 2119.0 2158.3 2210.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.9 2.4 Construction & Mining 89.0 85.7 87.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.5 -3.7 1.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 505.0 520.5 537.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 3.1 3.2 Wholesale Trade 132.7 134.5 139.2 Retail Trade 284.0 294.9 303.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 88.4 91.0 94.3 Information 43.6 44.1 45.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 1.2 2.5 Financial Activities 153.3 156.4 161.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 2.0 3.2 Prof & Business Services 325.8 339.5 353.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 4.2 4.0 Educ & Health Services 335.7 341.1 341.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.6 0.2 Leisure & Hospitality 252.2 262.1 275.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 3.9 5.2 Other Services 101.7 103.9 108.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 2.2 4.5 Federal Government 36.7 34.1 33.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 -6.9 -1.0 State & Local Government 276.0 271.0 266.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -1.8 -1.7

2349.3 2.7 77.6 0.7 2271.7 2.8 93.7 7.6 550.0 2.4 140.4 312.7 96.9 46.1 1.9 165.0 2.2 371.2 5.1 346.5 1.4 286.3 3.8 111.4 2.6 33.5 -0.8 267.9 0.6

2418.9 3.0 79.3 2.2 2339.6 3.0 101.3 8.1 568.1 3.3 142.1 325.6 100.4 46.7 1.4 168.6 2.2 385.6 3.9 354.4 2.3 295.5 3.2 116.0 4.1 32.9 -1.9 270.6 1.0

2496.7 3.2 81.1 2.2 2415.6 3.2 111.0 9.5 586.1 3.2 144.8 335.9 103.9 47.2 1.1 173.6 2.9 401.9 4.2 366.7 3.5 303.9 2.8 119.8 3.3 33.0 0.6 272.5 0.7

2556.2 2.4 81.7 0.8 2474.5 2.4 120.2 8.3 597.6 2.0 148.3 338.2 108.7 47.5 0.6 175.5 1.1 422.5 5.1 376.9 2.8 307.9 1.3 120.8 0.9 32.7 -1.0 273.0 0.2

2604.0 1.9 81.9 0.3 2522.1 1.9 131.5 9.4 605.6 1.3 151.9 338.2 113.2 47.5 0.1 175.3 -0.1 437.7 3.6 382.4 1.5 312.6 1.6 120.9 0.0 32.3 -1.2 276.2 1.2

2634.5 1.2 81.7 -0.3 2552.8 1.2 140.5 6.8 611.1 0.9 154.7 336.9 116.3 47.6 0.3 173.4 -1.1 443.9 1.4 385.4 0.8 317.7 1.6 121.3 0.4 31.9 -1.4 280.0 1.4

5852.6 1.2 2969.1 0.7 7.4 17198.4 6257.4 10941

5926.7 1.3 3017.6 1.6 6.1 15090.8 6043.0 9048

6002.9 1.3 3104.0 2.9 5.5 19549.8 9507.0 10043

6079.0 1.3 3168.8 2.1 5.4 27245.0 14054.2 13191

6155.1 1.3 3229.9 1.9 5.3 32156.8 18101.7 14055

6233.5 1.3 3291.8 1.9 5.3 33965.6 18668.3 15297

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5600.0 1.5 2836.4 1.3 11.2 5043.3 3266.9 1776

5703.1 1.8 2895.4 2.1 10.3 7287.7 4124.8 3163

5781.5 1.4 2948.5 1.8 8.7 11427.7 5271.6 6156

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

284.8 5 130.6 154.2

287.1 4.2 132.3 154.8

289.7 4.2 134.1 155.6

292.8 4.2 136.1 156.7

297.1 4.3 137.9 159.2

300.8 4.8 139.8 161

305 5.3 141.7 163.3

309.6 5.8 143.7 165.9

314.7 5.9 145.7 169

319 6 147.7 171.3

323.3 6 149.7 173.6

327.6 5.8 151.7 175.9

332.4 5.7 153.6 178.8

336.6 5.5 155.6 181.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

262.7 4.7

263.9 4.2

265.5 4.2

266.8 3.4

269.2 2.5

271.2 2.8

273.6 3.1

276.4 3.6

279.6 3.9

281.9 4

284.1 3.8

286.4 3.6

289.1 3.4

291.2 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

47.7 44

47.9 44

48.2 44.2

48.5 44.2

49.1 44.5

49.6 44.7

50.1 44.9

50.7 45.3

51.4 45.6

51.9 45.9

52.4 46.1

53 46.3

53.6 46.6

54.1 46.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.5 1.5

52.8 1.9

53.3 2.3

53.7 2.8

54.1 3.1

54.6 3.2

55 3.2

55.4 3.3

56 3.4

56.5 3.6

57.1 3.8

57.6 4

58.2 4

58.8 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2472.8 3.4

2489.6 3.2

2504.2 3.3

2520.2 2.9

2534.4 2.5

2549 2.4

2563.1 2.4

2578.4 2.3

2589.2 2.2

2599.4 2

2608.8 1.8

2618.7 1.6

2624.8 1.4

2631.3 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

80.8 2.3

81.1 2.7

81.1 2.5

81.3 1.3

81.6 1

81.8 0.9

81.8 1

81.6 0.3

81.8 0.2

81.9 0.1

82.1 0.3

82 0.4

81.9 0.1

81.8 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2392 3.5

2408.5 3.3

2423.2 3.4

2438.9 2.9

2452.7 2.5

2467.1 2.4

2481.3 2.4

2496.8 2.4

2507.4 2.2

2517.5 2

2526.7 1.8

2536.7 1.6

2542.9 1.4

2549.5 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

107.8 10.3

110 9.3

112 9.9

114.3 8.6

116.5 8.1

118.8 8.1

121 8.1

124.2 8.7

127.1 9.1

130.1 9.4

132.9 9.8

136 9.5

138 8.6

139.8 7.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

579.9 3.2

584 3.3

588.1 3.1

592.2 3.1

594.2 2.5

596.2 2.1

598.7 1.8

601.3 1.5

602.4 1.4

604.4 1.4

606.6 1.3

608.8 1.3

609.9 1.2

610.6 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

143.5 333.4 102.4

144.1 335.6 103.1

145.1 336.6 104.3

146.3 337.9 105.7

146.9 338.1 106.8

147.7 338 108.1

148.6 338.3 109.3

149.8 338.3 110.7

150.6 337.6 111.8

151.4 338.1 112.8

152.2 338.6 113.7

153.2 338.6 114.7

153.8 337.8 115.5

154.3 337 116.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

47.2 1.7

47.4 1.3

47.1 0.8

47.1 0.4

47.1 -0.2

47.6 0.4

47.8 1.6

47.3 0.5

47.5 0.7

47.6 0.1

47.5 -0.6

47.4 0.2

47.5 0.1

47.6 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

172.5 3.9

173.1 2.9

174 3

174.7 2

175.4 1.6

175.5 1.4

175.5 0.9

175.7 0.6

175.8 0.3

175.6 0

175.1 -0.2

174.6 -0.6

174.1 -1

173.5 -1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

394.9 3.7

399.6 4.1

403.8 4.5

409.1 4.6

414.1 4.9

419.6 5

425.2 5.3

431 5.3

435.1 5.1

437 4.1

438.4 3.1

440.5 2.2

442.3 1.7

443.5 1.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

363.3 3.5

366.1 3.7

368 4

369.6 2.7

372.3 2.5

376.1 2.7

378.2 2.8

380.9 3.1

381.2 2.4

382.2 1.6

382.8 1.2

383.6 0.7

383.5 0.6

384.8 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

301.3 3.4

303.1 2.4

304.8 2.7

306.4 2.8

307.3 2

307.1 1.3

308 1.1

309 0.9

310.2 0.9

311.7 1.5

313.5 1.8

315.2 2

316 1.9

317 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

119.2 4.5

119.6 4

120 3.1

120.3 1.6

120.6 1.2

120.8 1

120.9 0.8

121 0.6

120.9 0.3

120.9 0

120.8 -0.1

120.9 -0.1

121 0.1

121.2 0.2

33.2 0.5

33.1 0.6

33 1.3

32.9 -0.2

32.9 -0.9

32.7 -1.1

32.6 -1.1

32.5 -1.1

32.4 -1

32.3 -1.2

32.1 -1.3

32 -1.4

31.9 -1.5

272.6 1.2

272.5 0.7

272.5 0.8

272.3 0.1

272.3 -0.1

272.7 0

273.2 0.3

273.9 0.6

274.8 0.9

275.7 1.1

276.6 1.3

277.6 1.4

278.5 1.3

279.6 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5973.6 1.3

5993.4 1.3

6012.8 1.3

6031.9 1.3

6050.9 1.3

6069.5 1.3

6088.3 1.3

6107 1.2

6126 1.2

6145.4 1.2

6164.8 1.3

6184.3 1.3

6203.8 1.3

6223.6 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3076.7 3.1

3098 2.9

3113.7 2.8

3127.8 2.6

3143.7 2.2

3160.7 2

3177.7 2.1

3193 2.1

3207.2 2

3222.4 2

3237.8 1.9

3252.2 1.9

3267.5 1.9

3283.6 1.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.3

16626 7632 8994

18240 9080 9161

20744 10259 10484

22589 11057 11532

24138 12140 11999

26426 13203 13223

27921 14470 13451

30494 16404 14090

31818 17552 14267

31788 18063 13725

32358 18336 14022

32663 18457 14206

33092 18552 14539

33400 18676 14724

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

N aples - M a r co I slan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.7 percent. Real per capita income level, which is expected to average $64,600, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $53,700. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.5 percent. Population growth will average 2.6 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product level will be an average of 17,281.48 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 166,789 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.2% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,740 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110 • Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800

• Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Employment growth is expected to average 3.5 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.4 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 8.5 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.8 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Wine Festival helps kids, and local businesses don’t do too bad, either • The Naples Winter Wine Festival is a three-day event that, since 2001, has raised more than $123 million for underprivileged and at-risk children through the Naples Children and Education Fund. • The Festival, held every January, also impacts local business. With over 600 elite guests, local hotels, hairdressers, spas, restaurants, and local transportation services all benefit.

• The event brings economic support through the businesses directly involved in its production, as well as the thousands of local residents working throughout the day. Source: Naples Daily News, January 22, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Central Avenue project moving forward

• The Naples City Council approved a major project for the construction of 212 condos, offices, and other amenities on Central Avenue after rezoning the 9-acre site. • Many local residents and businesses had expressed growing concerns over traffic that would result from the project, traffic that is already congested throughout the winter season.

• As such, there are several “calming measures” included in the $2.33 million improvement project for Central Avenue, which is being financed by the Streets and Stormwater Fund with the Naples City Community Redevelopment Agency.

• The venture also includes plans for a “blue zone” that encourages healthy activities, such as cycling and walking, in the belief that such adjustments will increase development. Source: Naples Daily News, February 18, 2015 Nonprofit offers business advice to Southwest Florida Hispanic entrepreneurs

• In February, the Florida Nonprofit Hispanic Business Initiative Fund (HBIF) held consultations and information sessions for Southwest Florida Hispanic entrepreneurs to help start new businesses or expand locally owned companies. • The workshops provided information on topics ranging from developing business plans, to permits and licenses. Attendees commented that the program dispensed critical insight that is often difficult to obtain in Southwest Florida.

• The HBIF representative said that the group is currently assessing further need for their assistance in Southwest Florida, adding that there was a high probability HBIF would be returning in a few months as the workshops in the area were attended to a greater degree than those hosted in Orlando or Jacksonville. Source: Naples Daily News, February 19, 2015

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Lee looks to expand Gulf Coast Medical Center

• The Southwest Florida inpatient volume for hospitals is up 9 percent this year, leading the Lee Memorial Health System board of directors to consider a 275bed expansion to the Gulf Coast Medical Center, which currently has 349 beds.

• Especially during the winter season, there are long waits in emergency rooms and limited availability to house patients. The communal need for this threefloor expansion is now within the realm of possibility after state officials denied the building of an 80-bed hospital near Estero. Source: Naples Daily News, March 15, 2015 Collier leading the state in economic growth and housing; Lee not far behind

• Two reports by the Florida TaxWatch and Florida Realtors showed Collier County to be the state leader for job growth and housing market growth.

• The reports cited IHS Global Insight, predicting that the Naples-Marco Island MSA would accelerate beyond Florida’s overall growth rate in 2015 at 4.7 percent. Florida Realtors reported that median prices for single-family homes in Collier County surpassed the state level with a rise of 16.6 percent from November 2013, averaging to $338,000 per existing home. Source: Naples Daily News, January 6, 2015

N aples - M a r co I slan d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

0.6

0.8

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Naples Payroll Employment

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

18.2 4.4 5.1 13.1 17.9 2.6 56.4 55.4 45.8 1.6

19.7 7.9 5.3 14.4 18.9 5.3 59.8 57.4 45.9 0.4

21.6 10.0 5.6 16.1 20.4 8.0 64.7 61.0 46.6 1.5

22.0 1.9 6.0 16.1 20.5 0.7 64.5 60.1 48.2 3.3

23.1 4.9 6.4 16.7 21.3 3.5 66.2 60.8 49.5 2.8

24.4 5.7 6.9 17.5 22.4 5.4 68.3 62.6 50.8 2.5

26.0 6.3 7.4 18.6 23.4 4.3 70.7 63.6 52.6 3.5

28.0 7.6 7.9 20.1 24.6 5.5 74.1 65.3 54.6 3.9

30.0 7.2 8.4 21.5 25.9 4.9 77.4 66.8 56.9 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 111.2 114.9 118.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 3.3 3.3 Manufacturing 2.4 2.5 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 1.4 8.1 Nonmanufacturing 108.8 112.5 116.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 3.4 3.2 Construction & Mining 9.1 9.0 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.9 -1.0 4.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 21.3 22.2 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 4.0 2.6 Wholesale Trade 2.8 2.9 3.0 Retail Trade 17.0 17.9 18.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.4 1.4 Information 1.5 1.5 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 -4.8 -2.2 Financial Activities 6.5 6.5 6.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -1.0 4.3 Prof & Business Services 11.1 12.1 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 9.3 9.8 Educ & Health Services 17.1 17.9 18.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 4.7 0.4 Leisure & Hospitality 21.3 22.6 23.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 6.0 4.4 Other Services 7.3 7.3 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 -0.2 2.5 Federal Government 0.8 0.7 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.7 -10.6 -7.2 State & Local Government 12.7 12.7 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 0.3 -0.2

123.4 4.0 3.1 14.1 120.4 3.7 10.5 11.6 24.0 5.6 3.4 19.2 1.4 1.5 4.2 7.0 4.0 13.6 2.3 18.3 1.7 24.5 4.2 7.9 6.2 0.6 -7.5 12.4 -2.7

128.5 4.1 3.3 7.3 125.2 4.0 11.6 10.9 24.8 3.2 3.7 19.6 1.5 1.5 -0.6 7.2 2.4 14.5 6.2 18.5 0.7 25.6 4.3 8.5 7.3 0.6 -0.1 12.5 1.1

135.2 5.2 3.5 5.3 131.7 5.2 12.7 9.1 26.1 5.0 3.9 20.5 1.6 1.5 1.0 7.4 3.2 15.6 7.6 18.9 2.2 27.2 6.0 9.0 5.9 0.6 2.5 12.9 3.3

139.9 3.5 3.5 1.5 136.4 3.5 13.9 9.4 26.8 2.9 4.1 20.9 1.7 1.5 2.5 7.6 2.6 16.4 5.5 19.5 3.5 27.6 1.7 9.2 2.6 0.6 0.2 13.1 1.7

144.1 3.0 3.6 1.1 140.5 3.1 15.1 9.0 27.4 2.2 4.2 21.3 1.8 1.6 1.8 7.7 1.4 17.1 4.1 20.0 2.6 28.2 2.0 9.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 13.4 2.5

147.5 2.4 3.6 0.5 144.0 2.5 16.1 6.4 27.9 1.9 4.4 21.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 7.7 0.3 17.4 1.9 20.4 2.1 28.8 2.2 9.5 1.7 0.6 -0.2 13.8 2.7

341.5 2.2 155.5 1.8 6.9 2307.9 1671.9 636

349.4 2.3 161.0 3.6 5.7 3401.6 2467.4 934

357.8 2.4 168.0 4.4 5.3 4844.5 2524.4 2320

367.6 2.7 175.1 4.2 5.4 4558.9 2262.2 2297

377.6 2.7 181.9 3.9 5.4 4623.1 2576.8 2046

387.5 2.6 188.7 3.7 5.4 4884.3 2713.6 2171

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

323.5 1.4 145.0 1.2 11.6 1200.3 804.0 396

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

328.7 1.6 148.1 2.2 10.2 1211.5 922.7 289

334.2 1.7 152.8 3.1 8.5 1477.1 1275.7 201

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

24 6.3 6.7 17.3

24.3 5.6 6.8 17.4

24.5 5.6 7 17.6

24.9 5.2 7.1 17.8

25.3 5.3 7.2 18.1

25.7 5.9 7.3 18.4

26.2 6.7 7.5 18.7

26.7 7.4 7.6 19.1

27.2 7.7 7.7 19.5

27.7 7.8 7.8 19.9

28.2 7.7 8 20.2

28.7 7.4 8.1 20.6

29.2 7.3 8.2 21

29.8 7.3 8.4 21.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 6.1

22.3 5.6

22.5 5.6

22.7 4.5

22.9 3.4

23.2 3.9

23.5 4.5

23.8 5.2

24.2 5.6

24.5 5.7

24.8 5.5

25.1 5.2

25.4 5

25.7 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (0$)

67.8 62.6

68.1 62.6

68.4 62.7

68.8 62.7

69.6 63

70.2 63.3

71 63.7

71.9 64.2

72.9 64.8

73.7 65.1

74.4 65.4

75.2 65.8

76.2 66.2

77 66.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.2 2.3

50.6 2.5

51 2.5

51.4 2.8

51.9 3.2

52.3 3.4

52.8 3.6

53.3 3.6

53.8 3.7

54.3 3.8

54.9 4

55.5 4.1

56 4.2

56.6 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

133.3 4.5

134.6 5.7

135.9 6.7

137.1 4.1

138.1 3.7

139.2 3.4

140.5 3.4

141.6 3.3

142.6 3.2

143.6 3.1

144.6 2.9

145.5 2.7

146.2 2.5

147.1 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 7.5

3.5 8

3.5 3.9

3.5 2.2

3.5 1.7

3.5 1.6

3.5 1.7

3.5 1.1

3.6 1

3.6 1.1

3.6 0.9

3.6 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

129.8 4.4

131.2 5.6

132.4 6.7

133.6 4.2

134.6 3.7

135.7 3.5

136.9 3.4

138.1 3.4

139.1 3.3

140.1 3.2

141 3

141.9 2.8

142.6 2.6

143.6 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.2 7.2

12.5 8.1

12.8 11.7

13.1 9.6

13.4 9.3

13.7 9.3

14.1 9.6

14.4 9.5

14.7 9.9

15 9.3

15.3 8.6

15.5 8.2

15.7 7.1

16 6.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 3.2

25.9 5

26.2 7.3

26.4 4.6

26.6 3.6

26.7 3

26.9 2.7

27.1 2.3

27.2 2.2

27.3 2.2

27.5 2.2

27.6 2.1

27.8 2.2

27.9 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.8 20.2 1.6

3.9 20.4 1.6

3.9 20.6 1.6

3.9 20.7 1.6

4 20.8 1.6

4 20.9 1.7

4.1 21 1.7

4.1 21.1 1.7

4.2 21.1 1.7

4.2 21.2 1.8

4.3 21.3 1.8

4.3 21.4 1.8

4.4 21.4 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 -1

1.5 0.6

1.5 2

1.5 2.3

1.5 1.7

1.5 2.4

1.6 3.6

1.6 2.5

1.6 2.7

1.6 1.9

1.6 1

1.6 1.6

1.6 1.4

1.6 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 1.7

7.4 3.5

7.4 4.1

7.5 3.7

7.5 3.4

7.6 2.9

7.6 2.1

7.6 1.8

7.7 1.6

7.7 1.5

7.7 1

7.7 0.5

7.7 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.2 7.9

15.5 9.3

15.7 7.8

15.9 5.4

16.1 5.6

16.3 5.4

16.5 5.5

16.8 5.4

16.9 5.2

17.1 4.7

17.1 3.8

17.2 2.9

17.3 2.3

17.4 2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.7 0.5

18.8 1.5

18.9 3.6

19 3.1

19.2 2.9

19.4 3.3

19.6 3.6

19.8 4

19.8 3.4

20 2.8

20.1 2.3

20.2 1.9

20.4 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.9 5.8

27.1 7.2

27.3 8.1

27.4 3.1

27.5 2.4

27.5 1.7

27.7 1.5

27.8 1.4

27.9 1.4

28.1 2

28.3 2.2

28.4 2.3

28.5 2.2

28.7 2.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 8.1

9 7.3

9 4.9

9.1 3.5

9.1 2.9

9.2 2.7

9.3 2.5

9.3 2.4

9.3 2

9.4 1.6

9.4 1.4

9.4 1.2

9.5 1.3

9.5 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.6 2.7

0.6 4.3

0.6 2.1

0.6 1.2

0.6 0.3

0.6 0.2

0.6 0.1

0.6 0.2

0.6 0.1

0.6 0

0.6 -0.2

12.8 2.9

12.9 3.7

12.9 5.1

13 1.6

13 1.4

13.1 1.5

13.1 1.8

13.2 2

13.3 2.3

13.4 2.5

13.5 2.6

13.6 2.7

13.7 2.6

13.8 2.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

354.4 2.3

356.6 2.4

358.9 2.5

361.4 2.6

363.8 2.7

366.3 2.7

368.9 2.8

371.4 2.8

373.9 2.8

376.4 2.7

378.9 2.7

381.4 2.7

383.8 2.7

386.3 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

165.1 3.3

167.2 3.7

169.1 5.3

170.8 5.1

172.5 4.5

174.3 4.2

176.1 4.1

177.7 4.1

179.3 4

181 3.9

182.8 3.8

184.4 3.8

186.1 3.8

187.9 3.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.3

5.4

4568 2577 1991

4810 2608 2203

5030 2541 2489

4970 2372 2598

4762 2281 2480

4648 2199 2449

4373 2161 2212

4452 2407 2045

4590 2507 2083

4565 2561 2004

4650 2607 2043

4688 2631 2056

4777 2679 2098

4817 2714 2104

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.1 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve metros. Real per capita income level is the lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $34,500. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level at $42,900. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, third highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.8 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,749.56 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 133,727 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.9% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,202 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 • Lockheed Martin Employees – 981 Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 6.8 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 7.9 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 3.9 percent average annual growth. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Florida Credit Union to open Shores branch

• The Florida Credit Union will open a branch in the Silver Beach Shores at the corner of Southeast Maricamp Road and Bahia Avenue in Maricamp Market Center.

• John Rudnianyn, realtor and developer with International Property Services, stated that the branch is buying up prime spots and that this is the best spot the area has to offer at this current time. • Maricamp Land LLC and the Florida Credit Union closed on a $900,000 deal around the end of January. The plans have been submitted to the county and construction should start in the near future. Source: Ocala Star Banner, January 28, 2015

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

O cala

Tax collector requests funds to buy historic Ma Barker house • Tax Collector George Albright asked legislators to help finance the buying of the Ma Barker house for $889,000. He wants to purchase the home to keep its historical value and location. The home is currently zoned on property that is doomed to be a condominium complex in the future.

• Albright believes the home could be used to lure in tourists to the area, along with making it a museum to honor law enforcement.

• The home is in the same condition as it was from its famous shootout, involving “Ma” Barker and her son Fred, the nation’s most wanted gangsters at the time. If the county doesn’t buy it, it could be demolished and all historical ties to it will be gone forever. The house represents the stand against mobsters and criminals, along with being a piece of history from the country’s past.

• These increases are due to the rise in events that were hosted in the area. The county has hosted the 14U Babe Ruth World Series and the Coates Golf Championship, among other events, boosting the economy and the amount of tourists to the area.

• The Ocala/Marion County Visitor and Convention Bureau used social media to their advantage and increased their posts and followers on both Facebook and Twitter. The rise in tourism can, at least partially, be credited to the superb use of social media to attract people to the area. Source: Ocala Star Banner, February 26, 2015

Source: Ocala Star Banner, January 12, 2015 Roofing supply chain enters Marion market

• Ocala’s 655 SW 15th St. welcomed Beacon Roofing Supply, a distributor of residential and commercial roofing materials. • The store will employ four workers. The company is the United States’ biggest roofing distributor that trades publicly, with 270 stores nationwide, 12 residing in Florida.

• Paul Isabella, Beacon’s president and CEO, said, “The new Ocala branch will enable us to reach new customers and expand our business with existing customers.” The company made about $2.3 billion last year and employs over 3,000 people. Source: Ocala Star Banner, March 16, 2015 Study: Hotel business increases in two-year period

• Last year, tourism increased drastically in the Ocala area. Demand for hotels rose by 10.2 percent, revenues were at $65.3 million (a 19.5 percent increase), and the hotel occupancy rate went up by 11.2 percent from 2012 to 2014.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

6500.0 6000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0

1.4

7000.0

105.0

80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

7500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income

O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

10.7 4.3 3.3 7.4 10.5 2.6 32.3 31.7 36.5 0.9

11.6 8.1 3.4 8.2 11.1 5.5 34.7 33.3 37.2 1.9

11.4 -1.5 3.5 7.9 10.8 -3.3 33.9 32.0 37.7 1.6

11.6 1.9 3.6 8.0 10.8 0.7 34.3 32.0 38.3 1.6

12.0 3.6 3.6 8.4 11.1 2.2 35.1 32.3 39.3 2.4

12.6 4.7 3.8 8.8 11.6 4.4 36.3 33.3 40.4 2.9

13.3 5.9 4.1 9.3 12.0 3.9 37.8 34.0 41.9 3.6

14.3 7.1 4.3 10.0 12.6 5.0 39.7 35.0 43.6 4.1

15.3 6.7 4.6 10.6 13.2 4.5 41.5 35.8 45.5 4.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 90.3 89.7 91.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -0.6 1.4 Manufacturing 6.4 6.4 6.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 0.5 4.6 Nonmanufacturing 83.9 83.3 84.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -0.7 1.2 Construction & Mining 6.3 5.7 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.7 -9.8 -5.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 19.8 20.3 20.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 2.3 3.4 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.3 3.4 Retail Trade 14.4 14.7 14.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2.3 2.7 Information 1.0 1.0 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -14.9 0.1 -9.9 Financial Activities 4.2 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.6 0.8 -0.2 Prof & Business Services 7.9 7.9 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 0.3 8.3 Educ & Health Services 13.4 13.8 14.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 3.0 3.1 Leisure & Hospitality 10.1 10.1 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.5 2.3 Other Services 3.4 3.1 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 -6.1 -11.6 Federal Government 0.9 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 27.6 -24.2 0.0 State & Local Government 16.9 16.4 16.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -3.0 -1.3

92.5 1.6 6.9 2.6 85.6 1.6 5.7 7.0 21.5 2.8 3.4 15.1 3.0 0.9 -3.7 4.2 0.0 9.0 4.7 14.3 0.5 10.6 2.5 2.8 0.6 0.7 0.0 15.8 -2.3

92.1 -0.5 7.0 1.1 85.1 -0.6 5.7 -0.3 21.8 1.5 3.4 15.2 3.2 0.8 -7.6 4.1 -3.6 8.9 -0.7 14.2 -0.8 10.6 0.0 2.8 -0.6 0.7 0.0 15.4 -2.8

94.0 2.1 7.2 3.8 86.7 1.9 6.0 4.6 22.5 3.0 3.5 15.5 3.4 0.8 -2.3 4.1 0.2 9.2 3.1 14.6 2.7 10.8 1.7 2.8 0.2 0.7 0.6 15.3 -0.7

96.6 2.8 7.3 1.0 89.3 3.0 6.6 10.0 23.0 2.4 3.6 15.7 3.6 0.8 1.7 4.1 1.9 9.8 6.0 15.1 3.1 11.0 1.6 2.8 1.9 0.7 -0.4 15.4 1.0

99.1 2.6 7.4 0.6 91.7 2.7 7.2 10.3 23.5 1.8 3.7 15.9 3.7 0.8 1.0 4.2 0.8 10.2 4.3 15.4 2.3 11.2 1.9 2.9 0.9 0.7 -0.4 15.7 1.9

101.0 2.0 7.4 0.1 93.7 2.1 7.7 6.6 23.8 1.5 3.8 16.0 3.9 0.8 0.8 4.2 -0.3 10.4 2.3 15.7 1.8 11.4 2.1 2.9 1.1 0.7 -0.6 16.1 2.1

338.7 0.8 132.3 -0.6 8.3 595.5 577.6 18

342.5 1.1 131.8 -0.4 7.2 762.4 720.6 42

347.1 1.3 133.2 1.1 6.8 1514.7 1450.2 64

353.4 1.8 135.3 1.5 6.9 2437.7 2289.8 148

360.6 2.0 137.7 1.8 6.7 2992.6 2819.7 173

368.0 2.1 140.9 2.3 6.8 3164.6 2977.5 187

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

331.8 0.3 134.7 -0.3 13.4 494.2 491.8 2

333.4 0.5 133.9 -0.6 12.1 359.0 356.1 3

336.0 0.8 133.1 -0.6 10.2 404.3 402.9 1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.4 4.9 3.7 8.7

12.5 4.4 3.8 8.7

12.7 4.6 3.9 8.8

12.8 4.8 3.9 8.9

13 5 4 9

13.2 5.6 4 9.2

13.4 6.3 4.1 9.3

13.7 6.9 4.2 9.5

14 7.2 4.2 9.7

14.2 7.3 4.3 9.9

14.4 7.2 4.4 10

14.6 7 4.5 10.2

14.9 6.8 4.5 10.4

15.2 6.8 4.6 10.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 4.6

11.5 4.4

11.6 4.6

11.7 4.1

11.8 3.1

11.9 3.5

12.1 4.1

12.2 4.7

12.4 5.1

12.5 5.2

12.7 5

12.8 4.7

13 4.5

13.1 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

35.9 33.2

36.2 33.2

36.4 33.3

36.7 33.4

37.1 33.6

37.5 33.8

38 34.1

38.5 34.3

39 34.7

39.5 34.9

39.9 35

40.3 35.2

40.8 35.5

41.3 35.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.9 2.5

40.2 2.8

40.6 3

40.9 3.1

41.3 3.4

41.7 3.6

42.1 3.7

42.5 3.8

42.9 3.9

43.3 4

43.8 4.2

44.3 4.3

44.8 4.4

45.3 4.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

92.9 0.6

93.7 1.7

94.3 2.9

95 3.2

95.6 2.8

96.3 2.8

97 2.9

97.7 2.9

98.3 2.8

98.8 2.7

99.4 2.5

99.9 2.3

100.3 2.1

100.8 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 5.2

7.2 4.8

7.3 3.4

7.3 1.7

7.3 1.3

7.3 1.1

7.3 1.2

7.3 0.5

7.3 0.4

7.4 0.4

7.4 0.5

7.4 0.8

7.4 0.5

7.4 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

85.7 0.2

86.4 1.4

87.1 2.9

87.7 3.3

88.3 3

88.9 2.9

89.7 3

90.4 3.1

90.9 3

91.5 2.9

92 2.6

92.5 2.4

93 2.2

93.5 2.2

5.8 0.1

5.9 3.3

6 6.4

6.2 8.8

6.3 8.7

6.5 9.5

6.7 10.6

6.8 11.1

7 11.5

7.2 10.9

7.3 9.9

7.5 9

7.6 7.6

7.7 7.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 1.8

22.4 3.1

22.6 3.7

22.8 3.6

22.9 2.9

23 2.5

23.1 2.2

23.2 2

23.3 1.8

23.4 1.8

23.5 1.8

23.6 1.7

23.7 1.8

23.8 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 15.4 3.4

3.5 15.5 3.4

3.5 15.6 3.4

3.5 15.6 3.5

3.6 15.7 3.5

3.6 15.8 3.6

3.7 15.8 3.6

3.7 15.8 3.7

3.7 15.9 3.7

3.7 15.9 3.8

3.8 15.9 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 -5.3

0.8 -3.8

0.8 -1

0.8 1.4

0.8 0.8

0.8 1.5

0.8 2.8

0.8 1.7

0.8 1.9

0.8 1.1

0.8 0.2

0.8 0.9

0.8 0.7

0.8 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4 -3

4.1 -1

4.1 2.2

4.1 2.8

4.1 2.6

4.1 2.2

4.1 1.5

4.2 1.2

4.2 1

4.2 0.9

4.2 0.4

4.2 -0.1

4.2 -0.3

9 0.7

9.2 1.7

9.3 4

9.4 6.1

9.6 6.2

9.7 5.9

9.8 5.9

10 5.8

10.1 5.5

10.2 4.8

10.2 3.8

10.3 3

10.3 2.6

10.4 2.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 1.5

14.6 2.8

14.7 3.8

14.7 2.5

14.8 2.4

15 2.8

15.1 3.2

15.3 3.7

15.3 3.1

15.4 2.5

15.4 2

15.5 1.5

15.6 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.7 0.3

10.8 0.9

10.8 2.7

10.9 2.8

10.9 2.1

10.9 1.6

11 1.4

11.1 1.4

11.1 1.9

11.2 2.1

11.3 2.3

11.3 2.1

11.4 2.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 -1.7

2.8 -0.6

2.8 0.5

2.8 2.6

2.8 2

2.8 1.9

2.8 1.8

2.9 1.7

2.9 1.4

2.9 1

2.9 0.7

2.9 0.5

2.9 0.7

2.9 0.9

0.7 0.8

0.7 0.5

0.7 0.9

0.7 0.4

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.5

0.7 -0.7

15.2 -1.9

15.3 -1.4

15.3 0

15.3 0.8

15.3 0.7

15.4 0.9

15.5 1.1

15.5 1.5

15.6 1.7

15.7 1.9

15.8 2

15.8 2.1

15.9 2.1

16 2.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

345.1 1.2

346.4 1.3

347.7 1.3

349.2 1.5

350.8 1.6

352.5 1.8

354.2 1.9

356 2

357.8 2

359.7 2

361.5 2.1

363.4 2.1

365.2 2.1

367.1 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.4 0.2

133.1 0.4

133.6 1.7

133.9 2

134.4 1.5

135 1.4

135.6 1.5

136.1 1.6

136.6 1.7

137.3 1.7

138 1.8

138.7 2

139.5 2.1

140.4 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.7

6.8

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.8

1094 1053 41

1405 1359 46

1681 1609 73

1878 1780 98

2101 1983 118

2312 2169 143

2551 2395 156

2787 2611 176

2914 2737 178

2970 2800 170

3026 2855 171

3060 2888 172

3095 2918 176

3143 2963 179

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

O r lan d o – K issimmee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.2 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $36,800. Average annual wage growth will be 3.2 percent. The average annual wage will be at a level of $49,300. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.3 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 122,645.35 million dollars, the third highest of the MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.0 percent annually, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.0 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 9.3 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4 percent, and the Educational and Health Services sector at 2.9 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,204,111 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 5.6% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 67,270 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774

Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Orlando ranks No. 11 in U.S. for economic performance • Orlando ranked 11th highest in the nation and 73rd highest in the world in the Brookings Institution Economic Performance measurement released in January.

• Over 2013-2014, Orlando increased employment by 3.5 percent while the national average was only 1.2 percent. Orlando’s Gross Domestic Product also showed an increase of 0.1 percent over the 20132014 period. Overall, Orlando is still listed as having only “partially recovered” from the recession. • Austin and Houston ranked highest among U.S. metros in the international rankings at numbers 38 and 39, respectively. China performed extremely well having 26 of the top 45 metros.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 22, 2015 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan d o – K issimmee

UCF gets OK on $5.8M to start plans for downtown Orlando campus

• On February 19th, the Florida Board of Governors unanimously approved a $5.8 million funding request to begin the first building in UCF’s planned downtown Orlando campus.

• A portion of the funding will go towards planning “Building A,” a proposed $57.8 million joint Valencia/UCF student support and services building. This would be the first of two buildings planned by UCF to be built in downtown’s Creative Village development. • Thus far, the project has not received any capital appropriations. UCF received $2 million in operating appropriations from the 2014 Legislature for a feasibility study of the downtown campus. • The downtown campus is slated to have 13,000 students. Decisions regarding which academic programs will be moved to the new campus are expected in late spring 2015. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 19, 2015 Orlando City Soccer sells out Citrus Bowl for MLS debut

• The Orlando City Soccer Club Lions sold out the 60,000-plus Orlando Citrus Bowl for the March 8th opener, the team’s first Major League Soccer game. • At the start of March, the team had already passed 13,000 season ticket sales, with a goal of 14,000 season ticket holders by opening day.

• Phil Rawlins, founder and president of Orlando City Soccer, hopes to have all 14,000 season ticket holders at each game plus an additional 6,000 attendees for an average of 20,000 in attendance. He believes this is on par for what the team will be dealing with for its new $110 million stadium slated to open next season. Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 2, 2015

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Developer Plans new 1,100-home I-Drive neighborhood near SeaWorld

• Ridgewood Real Estate Partners, based in Florham, New Jersey, and Angel Gordon & Co. LP, based in New York, are seeking approval from Orange County for a 1,136 home neighborhood that will include single-family lots, townhome lots, and rental apartment parcels.

• The development is planned atop the Marriott Grande Pines golf course on International Drive and Westwood Boulevard. Construction could begin by the 4th quarter of this year. • Jonathan Grebow, president of Ridgewood Real Estate Partners, expects the homes to sell to end users as opposed to vacation homes. New apartment development in the nearby area includes the $40 million Integra Cove complex and the $43 million Sea Isle Apartments.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 13, 2015 Marglev hires train car designer for Orlando airportto-I-Drive rail • American Marglev Technology Inc. selected Van Buren Township, Michigan-based engineering consultant Richardo Plc to handle the design, engineering, and integration of their planned magnetic-levitation passenger trains.

• The trains are to be part of the $400 million passenger rail line connecting Orlando International Airport with the Orange County Convention Center, which is planned to begin operating in 2017. • Once complete, Marglev will include six or seven stations, including stops at the airport’s new Intermodal Transportation Facility, the Florida Mall, and several on Orlando’s I-Drive tourist corridor. Additionally, the project is expected to generate 85 local, high-tech jobs with potential for 100-plus permanent jobs. Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 18, 2015

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

140000.0

8.0%

110000.0

6.0%

100000.0

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0

4.0%

80000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

70000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1200.0

6.0%

1100.0

3.0%

1000.0

0.0% -3.0%

900.0 800.0

1.6

130000.0 120000.0

1300.0

1.4

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1.2

-6.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 OrlandoPayroll Employment

-9.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

73.7 3.9 42.3 31.4 72.5 2.2 34.4 33.8 42.5 1.3

77.6 5.2 43.7 33.8 74.5 2.7 35.5 34.1 43.3 2.0

81.5 5.1 46.2 35.3 76.8 3.2 36.5 34.4 44.6 2.9

83.9 2.9 48.0 35.9 78.2 1.7 36.8 34.3 44.9 0.8

88.4 5.3 50.9 37.5 81.2 4.0 37.8 34.8 45.9 2.2

93.2 5.4 54.1 39.1 85.4 5.2 38.9 35.7 46.8 2.0

98.9 6.1 57.5 41.3 88.9 4.1 40.3 36.3 48.3 3.2

105.7 6.9 61.3 44.4 93.1 4.8 42.2 37.2 50.1 3.7

112.4 6.3 65.1 47.3 97.0 4.1 43.9 37.9 52.1 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 992.3 1005.6 1031.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.3 2.6 Manufacturing 38.0 38.0 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 0.1 -0.1 Nonmanufacturing 954.3 967.6 993.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.4 2.7 Construction & Mining 47.7 45.2 46.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.5 -5.2 2.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 186.0 191.9 198.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.2 3.2 Wholesale Trade 38.4 38.4 39.0 Retail Trade 117.9 123.3 128.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 29.7 30.2 30.9 Information 23.8 24.0 23.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 0.9 -1.7 Financial Activities 65.1 65.9 67.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 1.1 2.1 Prof & Business Services 161.1 161.9 169.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 0.5 4.6 Educ & Health Services 120.8 123.5 128.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.2 3.7 Leisure & Hospitality 195.6 203.5 210.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 4.1 3.3 Other Services 38.5 36.6 34.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -5.1 -4.7 Federal Government 12.8 12.0 12.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 -6.0 2.7 State & Local Government 102.9 103.1 104.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.2 0.9

1065.0 3.2 38.1 0.4 1026.9 3.3 51.1 10.7 203.7 2.8 40.0 132.5 31.2 23.7 0.6 69.6 3.6 175.6 3.7 131.2 2.4 219.2 4.3 35.6 2.3 12.4 0.4 104.7 0.7

1104.7 3.7 39.6 3.8 1065.1 3.7 56.0 9.5 211.7 3.9 42.0 137.4 32.3 24.2 2.1 69.8 0.2 184.6 5.2 133.3 1.6 231.6 5.7 36.4 2.1 12.3 -0.5 105.3 0.5

1149.8 4.1 40.5 2.4 1109.2 4.1 62.3 11.4 220.0 4.0 44.3 141.3 33.6 24.7 1.9 71.1 1.9 194.0 5.1 138.1 3.6 242.3 4.6 37.7 3.6 12.5 1.6 106.4 1.1

1186.3 3.2 41.0 1.2 1145.3 3.2 68.0 9.0 225.9 2.7 45.9 143.5 35.2 25.1 1.7 72.5 1.9 204.9 5.7 143.3 3.7 246.9 1.9 38.4 1.9 12.5 0.0 107.7 1.2

1218.6 2.7 41.3 0.7 1177.3 2.8 74.6 9.7 230.2 1.9 47.5 144.7 36.7 25.4 1.2 72.9 0.5 214.1 4.4 146.8 2.5 252.3 2.2 38.7 0.8 12.5 -0.3 109.9 2.0

1243.9 2.1 41.4 0.2 1202.5 2.1 79.9 7.2 233.6 1.5 48.9 145.1 37.8 25.7 1.3 72.5 -0.5 219.0 2.3 149.5 1.8 258.4 2.4 39.2 1.3 12.4 -0.6 112.4 2.2

2280.5 2.1 1161.4 1.6 6.9 14784.3 9338.2 5446

2335.8 2.4 1198.9 3.2 5.8 15145.7 10214.9 4931

2394.1 2.5 1241.9 3.6 5.2 17805.7 11372.0 6434

2450.2 2.3 1275.6 2.7 5.1 19070.9 12720.0 6351

2505.0 2.2 1304.5 2.3 4.9 20805.9 15007.3 5799

2559.7 2.2 1331.8 2.1 4.9 21604.6 15481.3 6123

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2145.7 1.4 1116.8 0.9 11.2 5002.4 4409.7 593

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

2184.1 1.8 1128.8 1.1 10.2 5737.5 4481.2 1256

2232.9 2.2 1142.6 1.2 8.7 10908.3 7196.3 3712

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issimmee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

91.5 5.7 52.8 38.7

92.5 5.2 53.6 38.9

93.7 5.4 54.5 39.2

94.9 5.4 55.3 39.6

96.6 5.5 56.2 40.3

98 5.9 57.1 40.9

99.6 6.4 57.9 41.7

101.3 6.8 58.9 42.4

103.2 6.9 59.8 43.4

104.8 7 60.8 44.1

106.5 6.9 61.7 44.7

108.2 6.7 62.7 45.4

110 6.6 63.6 46.3

111.6 6.4 64.6 47

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

84.4 5.5

85.1 5.2

85.8 5.4

86.5 4.6

87.5 3.7

88.3 3.8

89.4 4.1

90.5 4.6

91.7 4.8

92.7 4.9

93.6 4.7

94.6 4.5

95.6 4.3

96.5 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

38.6 35.6

38.8 35.6

39 35.7

39.3 35.8

39.7 36

40.1 36.1

40.5 36.4

41 36.6

41.5 36.9

42 37.1

42.4 37.3

42.8 37.4

43.3 37.7

43.7 37.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.3 1.3

46.6 1.9

47 2.2

47.3 2.7

47.7 3

48.1 3.2

48.5 3.2

48.9 3.3

49.4 3.5

49.8 3.6

50.3 3.8

50.8 3.9

51.3 4

51.9 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1134.8 4.3

1145.2 4

1154.7 4.3

1164.4 3.8

1173.4 3.4

1181.8 3.2

1190.4 3.1

1199.5 3

1207.5 2.9

1215.1 2.8

1222.4 2.7

1229.5 2.5

1235.3 2.3

1241.1 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 3.1

40.5 2.7

40.5 2.3

40.7 1.5

40.9 1.4

41 1.3

41.1 1.4

41.1 0.9

41.2 0.7

41.3 0.7

41.4 0.7

41.4 0.8

41.4 0.5

41.4 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1094.4 4.4

1104.7 4

1114.1 4.4

1123.7 3.8

1132.5 3.5

1140.8 3.3

1149.3 3.2

1158.5 3.1

1166.3 3

1173.8 2.9

1181 2.8

1188.1 2.6

1193.9 2.4

1199.7 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

60.3 12.3

61.7 11.7

63 12.2

64.4 9.5

65.8 9

67.2 8.9

68.5 8.8

70.4 9.3

72.1 9.6

73.8 9.8

75.4 10.1

76.9 9.3

78.3 8.6

79.4 7.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

217 4

219.1 3.4

221.1 4.4

223.1 4

224.2 3.3

225.2 2.8

226.5 2.5

227.7 2.1

228.5 1.9

229.6 1.9

230.8 1.9

231.9 1.8

232.7 1.8

233.3 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

43.8 139.8 33.1

44 141.1 33.3

44.5 141.8 33.7

45 142.6 34.2

45.3 143 34.6

45.7 143.3 35

46.1 143.7 35.4

46.6 143.9 35.8

47 144 36.2

47.3 144.5 36.6

47.7 145 36.9

48.1 145.3 37.2

48.4 145.2 37.5

48.7 145 37.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 2.2

24.7 2.2

24.7 1.8

24.8 1.5

24.8 1

25.2 1.6

25.3 2.8

25.1 1.6

25.3 1.8

25.5 1.2

25.5 0.5

25.5 1.3

25.6 1.2

25.7 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

70.5 0.2

70.9 1.1

71.4 3.4

71.8 2.9

72.3 2.5

72.5 2.3

72.6 1.6

72.8 1.3

72.9 0.9

72.9 0.7

72.8 0.4

72.7 -0.1

72.6 -0.4

72.5 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

190.2 5.4

192.8 5.2

195.1 4.6

197.7 5

200.5 5.4

203.4 5.5

206.3 5.8

209.5 5.9

212 5.8

213.5 4.9

214.7 4

216 3.1

217.4 2.6

218.5 2.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

136.3 2.7

137.7 3.5

138.8 4.5

139.7 3.7

141.1 3.5

142.8 3.8

144 3.7

145.3 4

145.8 3.3

146.5 2.6

147.1 2.2

147.8 1.7

148.2 1.6

149.1 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

239.7 6.2

241.5 4.8

243.2 4.2

244.9 3.4

246.1 2.6

246.1 1.9

247.2 1.6

248.2 1.3

249.5 1.4

251.2 2.1

253.3 2.5

255.2 2.8

256.3 2.7

257.6 2.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 3.4

37.6 4

37.8 4

38 3

38.2 2.4

38.4 2.1

38.4 1.7

38.5 1.3

38.6 1

38.7 0.8

38.7 0.7

38.8 0.7

38.9 0.9

39.1 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 1.8

12.5 1.4

12.5 2.1

12.5 0.9

12.5 0.1

12.5 0

12.5 -0.1

12.5 -0.2

12.5 -0.1

12.5 -0.3

12.4 -0.4

12.4 -0.6

12.4 -0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

106 1.1

106.3 0.7

106.6 1.3

106.8 1.3

107.1 1.1

107.5 1.1

107.9 1.3

108.4 1.5

109.1 1.8

109.6 2

110.2 2.1

110.8 2.2

111.4 2.2

112.1 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2372 2.5

2386.8 2.5

2401.7 2.5

2415.9 2.5

2429.9 2.4

2443.6 2.4

2457 2.3

2470.4 2.3

2484.4 2.2

2498.2 2.2

2511.8 2.2

2525.3 2.2

2539.3 2.2

2553.1 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1227.2 4.3

1238.3 3.3

1247.2 3.4

1255 3.4

1263.1 2.9

1271.6 2.7

1280 2.6

1287.7 2.6

1294.3 2.5

1301.2 2.3

1308.1 2.2

1314.5 2.1

1321.4 2.1

1328.4 2.1

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.2

5.3

5.2

5.1

4.9

17039 10732 6307

17595 11405 6190

18285 11720 6566

18304 11631 6673

18295 11900 6396

18762 12208 6553

19029 12774 6255

20198 13998 6200

20682 14671 6011

20609 14966 5643

20911 15164 5747

21021 15227 5794

21239 15357 5882

21398 15492 5905

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.7 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $39,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $52,800. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 19,464.72 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 257,996 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.4% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,441 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.3 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.7 percent.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 8.4 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 4.2 percent, followed by the Manufacturing sector at 2.3 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -1.1 percent annually.

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

New Year’s resolutions boost profits for some

• Health First, Inc. – 7,800

• Brevard County Government – 2,380 • Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

• Health food stores in the Brevard County area have benefited from the New Year trend towards healthy lifestyles.

• One company, Nature’s Market Health Foods, is sponsoring an annual weight loss contest for New Year’s resolution setters. The number of participants has been growing since 2011. • Competing in the contest includes a store discount on health food, as well as special gym membership, personal training, and fitness class rates.

• The contest, in addition to the New Year’s resolutions, helps not only Nature’s Market Health Foods, but also contributes to boosts in sales for local weight loss clinics, gyms and personal trainers, dating sites, therapists, life coaches, and career counselors. Source: Florida Today, January 26, 2015

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Yacht company coming to Brevard, hiring for 380 jobs

• Merritt Island Boat Works is planning on opening a new manufacturing plant and, in turn, creating more than 380 new jobs in Brevard County. The jobs are expected to be created by 2018 and will have an average salary of $45,000. • An incentive plan for the company was approved last October. In addition to the new jobs, Merritt Island Boat Works plans to make a large investment in new equipment for the plant. • The company’s expansion represents growth in the marine industry for Brevard, supported by companies including Rosewell Global, SeaDek Marine Products, and Structural Composites Inc.

Source: Florida Today, February 3, 2015 Single-family homes figures show market off in 2015 • January data from the FloridaRealtors show that the real estate market in Brevard County showed significant improvements from a year earlier.

• According to the FloridaRealtors, 611 single-family home sales closed in January this year, representing an 8.1 percent leap from January of 2014. Median home prices also showed improvements, jumping 13 percent from January 2014, from $123,900 to $140,000.

• There are many other new retail projects popping up in the Brevard area, a promising sign of the economic growth ahead. Source: Florida Today, March 4, 2015 Visitors pour cash into Brevard as spring break arrives

• Thousands of tourists have already visited Cocoa Beach’s attractions in March. Doing particularly well is Hilton’s Cocoa Beach Oceanfront, which underwent a multimillion-dollar renovation last year. • The Cocoa Beach area has noticed an increase in business this spring break as opposed to years past, potentially due to lower gas prices, cheaper travel, and the harsh winter in the north. • Ocean Partners, a company operating four Cocoa beach hotels, has data supporting the increase in business, including occupancy levels that are 5 percent to 15 percent higher than during the same time in previous years.

Source: Florida Today, March 13, 2015

• These improvements for the Brevard County housing market are outpacing the growth of the national housing market. The year-over-year growth for national closed sales was only 3.2 percent. Source: Florida Today, February 23, 2015 Developer: ‘Higher-end’ stores coming to Brevard

• The Suntree shopping plaza, currently under construction but expected to be completed this fall, is including “higher-end” retailers, according to Billy Bishop, the principal and president of BishopBeale, who is developing the plaza.

• The developer wants to introduce more “premium shopping opportunities” to consumers in the Brevard area. The shopping center will include The Fresh Market, a health food grocery store specializing in organics. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P alm B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M elbou r ne â&#x20AC;&#x201C; T itus v ille Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

12.0% 9.0%

210.0

6.0%

205.0

3.0%

200.0

0.0%

195.0

-3.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

(Millions 2000 $)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

215.0

190.0

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20.4 1.6 9.3 11.1 20.0 -0.1 37.4 36.8 46.8 1.7

21.4 5.0 9.3 12.0 20.5 2.5 39.2 37.6 47.3 1.0

21.5 0.4 9.3 12.1 20.2 -1.4 39.1 36.9 47.3 0.1

21.7 1.2 9.4 12.3 20.2 0.0 39.3 36.6 47.7 0.8

22.4 3.2 9.6 12.8 20.6 1.9 40.1 36.9 48.7 2.0

23.4 4.4 10.1 13.3 21.5 4.1 41.4 38.0 49.8 2.3

24.7 5.7 10.8 13.9 22.2 3.7 43.2 38.9 51.6 3.7

26.4 6.6 11.5 14.9 23.2 4.5 45.5 40.1 53.7 4.1

27.9 6.0 12.1 15.8 24.1 3.8 47.7 41.1 56.1 4.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 194.8 194.6 194.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.1 0.0 Manufacturing 20.5 20.8 20.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 1.1 0.7 Nonmanufacturing 174.3 173.8 173.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 Construction & Mining 8.7 8.2 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.5 -5.9 3.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.0 34.4 34.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 4.0 1.6 Wholesale Trade 5.0 5.2 5.2 Retail Trade 24.7 25.1 25.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 3.3 4.1 4.2 Information 2.4 2.2 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.8 -9.0 -5.0 Financial Activities 7.6 7.5 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5 -1.4 1.3 Prof & Business Services 32.5 31.6 29.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -2.8 -7.0 Educ & Health Services 32.3 32.7 32.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 1.3 0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 21.2 21.6 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 1.6 5.3 Other Services 7.1 7.3 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.7 0.9 Federal Government 6.7 6.4 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 -5.3 -2.1 State & Local Government 22.6 22.0 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -2.8 0.7

194.2 -0.2 20.1 -3.8 174.1 0.2 9.2 9.0 35.0 0.2 5.5 25.6 3.9 1.9 -6.4 7.6 -0.4 28.7 -2.4 32.9 0.5 22.9 0.8 7.4 0.7 6.2 -0.8 22.3 0.6

194.9 0.4 19.6 -2.4 175.3 0.7 9.8 7.1 35.0 0.1 5.6 26.1 3.4 1.9 -2.2 7.5 -1.3 28.1 -2.2 33.3 1.1 23.6 3.2 7.8 5.9 6.0 -2.9 22.3 0.0

200.5 2.9 20.1 2.1 180.5 3.0 10.6 8.1 35.8 2.4 5.8 26.6 3.4 1.9 2.2 7.6 1.7 29.1 3.5 34.2 2.7 24.3 3.0 8.3 6.1 6.0 -0.2 22.6 1.5

206.3 2.9 20.9 4.4 185.4 2.7 11.6 9.7 36.4 1.6 6.0 26.8 3.5 2.0 1.6 7.7 1.5 30.9 6.5 35.0 2.5 24.6 1.0 8.4 1.4 5.9 -1.3 22.7 0.6

210.8 2.2 21.4 2.4 189.4 2.1 12.7 9.5 36.7 0.9 6.2 26.7 3.6 2.0 0.8 7.7 0.1 32.4 4.6 35.6 1.6 24.8 1.2 8.5 0.2 5.8 -1.3 23.1 1.4

213.5 1.3 21.5 0.1 192.0 1.4 13.5 6.3 37.0 0.6 6.3 26.6 3.7 2.0 0.4 7.7 -0.7 33.0 2.1 36.0 1.1 25.2 1.3 8.5 0.3 5.8 -1.6 23.4 1.6

552.9 0.8 264.0 -1.5 7.9 1346.7 1330.8 16

558.7 1.0 264.5 0.2 6.6 1319.2 1277.1 42

565.1 1.1 270.2 2.2 5.9 2293.7 2057.7 236

571.8 1.2 275.9 2.1 5.8 3677.4 2928.0 749

578.9 1.2 281.3 1.9 5.6 4495.0 3588.5 906

586.4 1.3 286.9 2.0 5.7 4626.3 3681.3 945

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

544.2 0.3 267.6 0.3 11.1 1082.3 994.8 88

545.5 0.2 268.9 0.5 10.8 972.9 843.0 130

548.7 0.6 268.2 -0.3 9.3 1111.1 1106.9 4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23 4.3 9.9 13.1

23.3 4.2 10 13.2

23.5 4.3 10.2 13.3

23.8 4.7 10.4 13.4

24.2 4.9 10.5 13.6

24.5 5.4 10.7 13.8

24.9 6 10.9 14

25.3 6.5 11.1 14.3

25.8 6.7 11.2 14.6

26.2 6.8 11.4 14.8

26.6 6.6 11.6 15

26.9 6.3 11.7 15.2

27.4 6.2 11.9 15.5

27.8 6.1 12.1 15.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 4

21.4 4.2

21.5 4.3

21.7 3.9

21.9 3.1

22.1 3.4

22.3 3.8

22.6 4.4

22.9 4.6

23.1 4.7

23.3 4.5

23.5 4.1

23.8 3.9

24 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.9 37.8

41.2 37.9

41.5 38

41.9 38.2

42.5 38.5

42.9 38.7

43.5 39

44.1 39.4

44.8 39.8

45.3 40

45.8 40.3

46.3 40.5

46.9 40.8

47.4 41

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.2 1.6

49.5 2.1

49.9 2.5

50.4 2.9

50.9 3.5

51.3 3.6

51.8 3.7

52.3 3.8

52.9 3.9

53.4 4.1

54 4.2

54.6 4.3

55.2 4.4

55.8 4.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

198.2 2

199.8 3

201.3 3.2

202.8 3.3

204.2 3

205.6 2.9

207.1 2.9

208.5 2.8

209.5 2.6

210.4 2.4

211.3 2

212 1.7

212.5 1.4

213.2 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

19.8 0

19.9 1.3

20.1 2.9

20.4 4.3

20.6 4.3

20.8 4.5

21 4.6

21.2 3.9

21.4 3.6

21.4 2.8

21.5 2

21.5 1.2

21.5 0.4

21.5 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

178.4 2.2

179.9 3.1

181.2 3.3

182.4 3.2

183.6 2.9

184.7 2.7

186 2.7

187.3 2.7

188.1 2.5

189 2.3

189.8 2

190.5 1.7

191 1.5

191.7 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 7

10.5 7.6

10.7 8.3

10.9 9.5

11.2 9

11.5 9.4

11.8 10.1

12.1 10.3

12.4 10.6

12.6 10

12.9 9.1

13.1 8.4

13.3 7.2

13.5 6.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35.5 1

35.7 2.5

36 2.9

36.2 3.1

36.3 2.3

36.4 1.8

36.5 1.4

36.6 1

36.6 0.9

36.7 0.9

36.8 0.9

36.9 0.8

36.9 0.9

36.9 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.7 26.4 3.3

5.7 26.6 3.3

5.8 26.7 3.4

5.9 26.8 3.4

5.9 26.8 3.5

6 26.8 3.5

6 26.8 3.6

6.1 26.7 3.6

6.2 26.7 3.6

6.2 26.8 3.7

6.3 26.7 3.7

6.3 26.6 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 1.7

1.9 3.6

1.9 2.1

1.9 1.3

1.9 0.7

2 1.4

2 2.6

2 1.5

2 1.7

2 0.9

2 0

2 0.5

2 0.3

2 0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 0.4

7.6 1.5

7.7 2.2

7.7 2.7

7.7 2.4

7.7 1.9

7.7 1.1

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.4

7.8 0.2

7.7 0

7.7 -0.4

7.7 -0.7

7.7 -0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 0.6

28.8 2.3

29.3 4.5

29.8 6.5

30.3 6.9

30.7 6.5

31.2 6.4

31.7 6.2

32 5.8

32.3 5.2

32.5 4.2

32.7 3.2

32.8 2.6

33 2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 2.6

34.1 3

34.3 2.8

34.4 2.2

34.6 2.1

34.9 2.4

35.2 2.7

35.4 3.1

35.4 2.4

35.6 1.8

35.7 1.4

35.7 0.9

35.8 0.9

35.9 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 2.5

24.3 3.9

24.4 3.2

24.5 2.3

24.5 1.6

24.5 1

24.6 0.7

24.6 0.6

24.7 0.6

24.8 1.1

24.9 1.4

25 1.6

25 1.4

25.1 1.4

8.3 9.9

8.3 8.3

8.3 4.3

8.4 2.2

8.4 1.6

8.4 1.5

8.4 1.3

8.5 1.1

8.5 0.8

8.5 0.3

8.5 0

8.5 -0.2

8.5 -0.1

8.5 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -0.8

6 0.1

6 0.4

6 -0.4

6 -1.1

5.9 -1.3

5.9 -1.2

5.8 -1.4

5.8 -1.5

5.8 -1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 2

22.6 2.2

22.6 1.6

22.6 0.5

22.7 0.3

22.7 0.4

22.8 0.6

22.8 0.9

22.9 1.2

23 1.3

23.1 1.4

23.2 1.5

23.3 1.5

23.4 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

562.6 1.1

564.2 1.1

565.9 1.2

567.6 1.2

569.3 1.2

571 1.2

572.6 1.2

574.4 1.2

576.2 1.2

578 1.2

579.8 1.3

581.6 1.3

583.5 1.3

585.4 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

267.6 1.6

269.6 1.6

271.2 2.6

272.4 2.9

273.8 2.3

275.2 2.1

276.7 2

277.9 2

279.2 2

280.6 1.9

282 1.9

283.3 1.9

284.7 2

286.2 2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.7

1795 1674 121

2113 1981 132

2488 2218 270

2779 2358 420

3105 2557 548

3471 2758 712

3847 3029 818

4287 3368 919

4447 3513 934

4468 3579 889

4529 3628 901

4537 3634 902

4553 3648 905

4583 3677 906

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.7 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $37,900. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.3 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $46,100. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.9 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 15,174.74 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 211,737 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.8% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,189 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200 Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year, and the unemployment rate will average 5.0 percent.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 6.8 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rate of -1.4 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Pensacola-area home sales, prices improving

• The housing markets in Escambia and Santa Rosa County continue to improve compared to their health after the nationwide fall of the housing market.

• After the “bursting of the real estate bubble,” each county experienced their lowest points in the median home price and in the number of units being sold. Home sales in Pensacola are digging themselves out of the trough now, with 2014 data showing clear improvement.

• The improvement in the number of houses being sold can be attributed to the growing need of households as the “baby boomers” retire. Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 23, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Companies merge to form Biome Consulting Group

• Biome Consulting Group is the product of the merge between Edmisten & Associates Ecological Consultants and Bosso-Imhof Environmental Sciences.

• Biome focuses on providing a variety of services on helping other businesses and landowners follow environmental guidelines.

• By merging their companies together, Biome Consulting Group hopes to “apply our local expertise to larger and more complex restoration projects while maintaining excellent service for our small development and individual homeowner clients,” according to Glen A. Miley, who is a founding partner. Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 25, 2015 UWF cancels major development projects

• Two of the University of West Florida’s development plans have been cancelled: the proposal of having electric cars on campus for students to use and the Northwest Village retirement community.

• News of these cancellations have now been posted on the Business Enterprises, Inc. website of UWF. • The once proposed Northwest Village retirement community was described as a “55-plus active adult community.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 11, 2015 Five-story, 100-room hotel planned for Main Street

• In downtown Pensacola, there are plans for a new five-story, 100-room hotel owned by Heetesh Patel and Siddiqi Holdings of Knoxville, Tennessee.

• The Pensacola Architectural Review Board will review plans for the building on Thursday, February 19th. • The lot has been vacant for about a decade, ever since the warehouse that used to stand there was demolished.

• Construction plans including cost will be sent to the owner after the Board approves the building plans. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 14, 2015 76

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Air safety company expands to Pensacola

• In order to gain a larger space and be closer to operators in the Gulf of Mexico, Aero Sekur will be moving to Pensacola. The company originated in New Jersey.

• The Community Economic Development Association’s president, John Hutchinson, believes that Aero Sekur’s move to the area is a sign of future growth in the aerospace industry for Northwest Florida. • Locals are excited about the relocation, with Commissioner Lumon May stating, “Businesses like Aero Sekur that create great jobs and make new investments have choices about where they locate. We’re pleased that they have chosen Escambia County.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 4, 2015 15 high-paying jobs coming to Pensacola

• The headquarters for Financial Management & Investment Corp. will reside in Pensacola, chosen over New Orleans, Los Angeles, and Austin. While they employ 160 people in Mississippi and Louisiana, this will be the company’s first in location Florida. • Fifteen jobs will be brought to the area. Pay will be determined based on qualifications of the individuals, though the average pay is expected to be $72,740. • Through the Florida’s Qualified Target Industry Tax Refund program, Financial Management & Investment Corp. was offered $150,000 in tax incentives, though the company declined taking these funds, saying that doing so would “be like taking a handout.”

Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 4, 2015

P ensacola â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P ass â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r ent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

16000.0

8.0%

14500.0

6.0%

14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13500.0

4.0%

13000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

12500.0

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0% -2.0%

155.0 150.0

1.4

15500.0 15000.0

175.0

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

-4.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Pensacola Payroll Employment

-6.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

16.0 3.0 6.9 9.1 15.7 1.3 35.4 34.8 40.3 -0.1

16.9 5.4 7.1 9.8 16.2 2.9 36.9 35.4 41.2 2.4

17.5 3.7 7.3 10.2 16.5 1.8 37.7 35.6 42.0 1.9

17.8 1.9 7.4 10.5 16.6 0.7 38.0 35.4 42.0 -0.1

18.5 3.7 7.6 10.9 17.0 2.4 39.0 35.8 42.8 1.9

19.2 3.9 8.0 11.2 17.6 3.7 40.0 36.7 43.7 2.1

20.1 4.6 8.4 11.7 18.1 2.6 41.5 37.3 45.1 3.3

21.2 5.5 8.8 12.4 18.7 3.4 43.4 38.3 46.8 3.7

22.2 4.9 9.2 13.1 19.2 2.8 45.3 39.1 48.7 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 156.7 158.5 158.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.1 0.0 Manufacturing 5.4 5.5 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 2.7 1.2 Nonmanufacturing 151.3 153.0 153.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.1 0.0 Construction & Mining 10.6 9.8 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -6.7 -4.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 29.4 29.8 30.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 1.3 0.9 Wholesale Trade 5.1 4.9 4.9 Retail Trade 20.2 20.8 21.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.1 4.1 4.0 Information 3.1 2.7 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 -12.5 -12.4 Financial Activities 8.7 8.7 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 0.0 3.4 Prof & Business Services 19.7 21.1 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 7.1 1.3 Educ & Health Services 26.7 27.4 27.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 2.4 -1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 18.1 19.2 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 6.5 2.5 Other Services 6.1 5.8 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -5.4 -1.6 Federal Government 7.2 6.9 6.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.2 -4.7 -0.9 State & Local Government 21.8 21.6 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.8 -0.2

160.4 1.2 5.8 4.5 154.6 1.1 9.1 -3.8 30.5 1.4 4.8 21.5 4.1 2.3 -1.8 9.8 8.6 22.0 3.4 26.6 -1.3 20.7 5.0 5.6 -2.0 6.6 -2.5 21.3 -1.0

162.6 1.3 5.9 2.0 156.6 1.3 9.1 0.1 30.8 1.3 4.8 22.0 4.1 2.4 4.4 10.1 3.5 22.2 0.5 26.6 -0.2 21.9 5.9 5.4 -3.1 6.5 -2.9 21.6 1.2

167.0 2.7 6.1 2.4 160.9 2.7 9.4 3.6 31.7 2.6 4.8 22.6 4.2 2.4 -0.2 10.3 2.1 23.1 4.3 26.9 1.3 23.2 5.8 5.4 0.0 6.5 0.9 21.9 1.4

170.0 1.8 6.1 0.7 163.8 1.8 10.3 9.0 32.0 1.0 4.9 22.7 4.3 2.4 0.9 10.4 0.8 24.2 4.6 27.4 1.6 23.5 1.0 5.5 1.0 6.4 -1.9 21.9 -0.1

172.0 1.2 6.1 0.1 165.9 1.3 11.2 9.3 32.1 0.2 5.0 22.5 4.4 2.4 0.1 10.3 -0.7 24.9 2.8 27.5 0.6 23.7 1.2 5.5 -0.2 6.3 -2.0 22.0 0.6

172.9 0.5 6.1 -0.5 166.8 0.5 11.8 5.5 32.0 -0.2 5.1 22.3 4.5 2.4 -0.3 10.2 -1.6 25.1 0.9 27.5 0.1 24.0 1.2 5.5 -0.2 6.1 -2.4 22.2 0.7

468.9 1.2 211.3 -0.2 7.0 1972.2 1850.8 121

474.4 1.2 213.8 1.2 6.0 2001.2 1711.9 289

479.6 1.1 221.5 3.6 5.3 2296.9 1984.3 313

484.0 0.9 227.9 2.9 5.1 1995.6 1736.9 259

487.9 0.8 232.8 2.2 4.9 2105.7 1884.1 222

491.3 0.7 236.7 1.7 4.9 2147.6 1917.5 230

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

451.5 1.0 211.4 2.0 10.0 1816.2 1369.0 447

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

456.9 1.2 215.0 1.7 9.5 1195.1 1194.2 1

463.5 1.5 211.7 -1.5 8.4 1473.5 1457.1 16

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19 4.5 7.8 11.1

19.1 3.7 7.9 11.2

19.3 3.7 8 11.2

19.5 3.8 8.1 11.3

19.7 4 8.2 11.5

20 4.4 8.3 11.6

20.2 4.9 8.4 11.8

20.5 5.3 8.5 12

20.8 5.5 8.6 12.2

21.1 5.6 8.7 12.4

21.3 5.5 8.8 12.5

21.6 5.3 8.9 12.7

21.9 5.1 9 12.9

22.1 5 9.1 13

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 4.2

17.6 3.7

17.7 3.6

17.7 3.1

17.9 2.1

18 2.4

18.1 2.7

18.3 3.2

18.5 3.5

18.6 3.6

18.7 3.4

18.9 3.1

19 2.9

19.2 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39.7 36.6

39.9 36.7

40.1 36.8

40.4 36.8

40.9 37

41.3 37.2

41.7 37.4

42.2 37.7

42.8 38

43.2 38.2

43.7 38.4

44.1 38.6

44.6 38.8

45.1 39

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.2 1.4

43.5 2

43.8 2.3

44.2 2.6

44.6 3.2

44.9 3.3

45.3 3.4

45.7 3.4

46.1 3.5

46.6 3.6

47 3.8

47.5 3.9

48 4

48.4 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

165.7 3.3

166.6 2.7

167.4 2.6

168.2 2.3

168.9 1.9

169.6 1.8

170.3 1.7

171 1.7

171.5 1.5

171.9 1.4

172.3 1.1

172.5 0.9

172.6 0.7

172.9 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 4.4

6.1 2.6

6.1 1.3

6.1 0.9

6.1 0.8

6.1 0.1

6.1 0.2

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

159.7 3.3

160.6 2.7

161.4 2.7

162.1 2.3

162.8 2

163.4 1.8

164.2 1.8

164.9 1.7

165.4 1.6

165.8 1.4

166.1 1.2

166.4 0.9

166.5 0.7

166.8 0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 -0.7

9.3 3.1

9.5 4.4

9.7 7.8

9.9 7.8

10.1 8.5

10.4 9.6

10.7 10.1

10.9 10.6

11.1 9.9

11.3 8.8

11.5 8

11.6 6.5

11.8 5.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.4 2.4

31.6 2.7

31.7 2.9

31.9 2.5

31.9 1.7

32 1.2

32 0.8

32 0.4

32 0.3

32.1 0.3

32.1 0.2

32.1 0.1

32 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.7 22.5 4.1

4.7 22.6 4.2

4.8 22.7 4.2

4.8 22.7 4.3

4.9 22.7 4.3

4.9 22.6 4.3

4.9 22.6 4.4

5 22.5 4.4

5 22.5 4.5

5 22.4 4.5

5 22.3 4.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 1.4

2.4 -0.1

2.4 -2.6

2.4 0.7

2.4 0.1

2.4 0.8

2.5 1.9

2.4 0.8

2.4 1

2.5 0.2

2.4 -0.7

2.4 -0.1

2.4 -0.4

2.4 -0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 2.3

10.3 2

10.3 2.1

10.4 1.9

10.4 1.7

10.4 1.2

10.4 0.4

10.4 0

10.4 -0.3

10.3 -0.5

10.3 -0.7

10.3 -1.1

10.2 -1.5

10.2 -1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 4.1

23 4

23.3 4.1

23.6 4.9

23.8 5

24 4.6

24.3 4.5

24.6 4.3

24.7 4

24.8 3.3

24.9 2.3

25 1.5

25 1.1

25.1 1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 1.6

26.9 1.2

27 1.4

27 1.2

27.1 1.1

27.3 1.4

27.4 1.7

27.6 2.1

27.5 1.4

27.5 0.9

27.5 0.4

27.5 -0.1

27.5 0

23 9.3

23.2 6.2

23.3 5.7

23.4 2.4

23.4 1.7

23.4 1.1

23.5 0.8

23.5 0.6

23.6 0.7

23.7 1.2

23.8 1.4

23.9 1.6

23.9 1.4

24 1.3

5.4 -1.3

5.4 -1

5.4 0.5

5.5 1.8

5.5 1.2

5.5 1.1

5.5 0.9

5.5 0.7

5.5 0.3

5.5 -0.1

5.5 -0.4

5.5 -0.6

5.5 -0.5

5.5 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 1.9

6.5 1.1

6.5 1.4

6.5 -1

6.4 -1.7

6.4 -1.9

6.4 -2

6.3 -2

6.3 -1.9

6.2 -2.1

6.2 -2.2

6.2 -2.4

6.1 -2.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22 3.8

21.9 1.7

21.9 0.5

21.9 -0.2

21.9 -0.4

21.9 -0.3

21.9 -0.1

21.9 0.1

22 0.4

22 0.6

22.1 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

477.8 1.1

479.1 1.1

480.2 1.1

481.3 1

482.4 1

483.5 0.9

484.5 0.9

485.5 0.9

486.6 0.9

487.5 0.8

488.4 0.8

489.2 0.8

490.1 0.7

490.9 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

218.5 3.2

220.8 3.2

222.6 4

224.2 3.9

225.7 3.3

227.2 2.9

228.7 2.7

229.9 2.6

231.1 2.4

232.3 2.2

233.4 2.1

234.4 1.9

235.3 1.8

236.3 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

4.9

2355 2037 317

2352 2052 299

2309 1990 319

2172 1857 315

2068 1781 287

1984 1709 274

1914 1675 239

2017 1782 235

2081 1852 229

2097 1880 217

2121 1901 220

2123 1903 220

2124 1904 220

2138 1917 221

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 5.5 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $36,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent. The average annual wage level will be $46,400. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,239.56 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 191,020 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.5 % as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,578 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Supermarket – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144

Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

Employment growth is expected to average 1.7 percent each year, the third lowest of the studied areas. However, the unemployment rate will average 4.5 percent, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 8.3 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average growth rate of 3.7 percent. The Federal Government is expected to decline by -0.3 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Fair trade retailer shutting down

• A fair trade retail store, Ten Thousand Villages, will be closing its store on March 28th. The store is located off Timberlane Road and is closing due to lack of support from the community. • The store almost made it to its 10-year anniversary, but fell short due to the decline of the economy in 2008.

• Two employees work at the location, along with other volunteers who work there to show their support for developing countries trying to produce goods. Handcrafted gifts were sold at the store from over 30 countries worldwide. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 12, 2015

T allahassee

New Capital Regional CEO wants to bring energy

• Mark A. Robinson, new CEO of Capital Regional Medical Center, wants to start making improvements to the capital’s hospital. He plans on adding a 24-bed in-patient psychiatric unit in the spring.

• Robinson wants to add some programs to the hospital and learn about the region to see what would best suit the area and the people residing in it. He is hoping to talk to the community leaders to find the biggest needs in the area and find ways to help strengthen those areas. • Robinson says he has every intention to help the locals and make sure they are taken care of. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 7, 2015 FSU making headway on $1-billion goal

• Florida State University is making gains on their $1 billion goal for the Raise the Torch campaign.

• Since the campaign started in 2010, the Tallahassee community and alumni have raised $630 million. Florida State is creating programs to raise money. They have started the Institute for Successful Longevity, which will be a resource for retirees in the community and state.

• The university’s new president, John Thrasher, is building on FSU’s mission to raise $1 billion, if not more. The school is drafting new plans to raise the money by the 2018 goal, but with the support of the Tallahassee community donors, they should be on their way to success.

• Along with jobs being eliminated, state employees can expect not to get their bonuses or raises, as they are not included in the budget as well. State workers’ last raise was in 2013, their first since 2006. • Florida’s ratio of state employees to residents is 108 to 10,000, the lowest in the country. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 28, 2015 Gov. Rick Scott’s job cuts would hit Department of Health hardest

• The 1,400 job cut proposal by Governor, Rick Scott, will affect the Florida Department of Health the most with 758 positions being terminated. Although the total number of Tallahassee employees affected by the job cuts in unknown at this time, some workers have already received letters of termination.

• Early Steps, a program that works with infants and toddlers undergoing health issues has been hit with position cuts by the Department of Health. One of the affected employees commented that 13 workers have also received letters of termination, all of whom are from of the Tallahassee metro. • As state jobs are continued to be cut, more Tallahassee citizens will find themselves unemployed. Leon County makes up almost 22 percent of the total workforce for the state, making these job cuts a harsh hit to the county and its employees. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 7, 2015

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 13, 2015 Gov. Rick Scott proposes cutting 1,000 state positions

• Rick Scott’s budget for the 2015-2016 fiscal year includes the elimination of over 1,000 state workers. Since Scott took office in 2010, he has cut about 11,000 state jobs. The proposed budget is $77 billion in total.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

1.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14500.0

12500.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

12000.0

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

180.0

4.0%

175.0

2.0%

170.0

0.0% -2.0%

165.0

13000.0

4.0%

160.0

2.5

13500.0

6.0%

185.0

14000.0

8.0%

2.0%

-4.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

-6.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income

T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

13.0 5.5 6.8 6.2 12.8 3.8 35.1 34.5 39.8 1.3

13.8 6.5 6.8 7.0 13.3 4.0 37.1 35.6 40.1 0.9

13.3 -3.4 6.8 6.5 12.6 -5.2 35.5 33.5 40.9 1.9

13.5 1.2 6.9 6.6 12.6 0.0 36.1 33.6 41.1 0.4

14.0 4.0 7.2 6.9 12.9 2.6 37.5 34.4 42.1 2.5

14.7 4.8 7.6 7.1 13.5 4.6 38.9 35.7 43.9 4.1

15.5 5.0 8.0 7.4 13.9 3.0 40.4 36.3 45.4 3.5

16.4 6.2 8.5 7.9 14.5 4.1 42.2 37.2 47.2 3.9

17.4 5.8 9.0 8.4 15.0 3.6 44.1 38.0 49.2 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 169.2 168.0 166.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -0.7 -1.0 Manufacturing 3.7 3.3 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 -11.2 -3.9 Nonmanufacturing 165.5 164.7 163.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -0.5 -1.0 Construction & Mining 6.4 6.1 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.1 -4.5 -4.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.2 22.3 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 0.7 -0.6 Wholesale Trade 3.3 3.3 3.2 Retail Trade 17.3 17.5 17.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.6 1.6 1.6 Information 3.1 3.2 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.1 3.5 3.7 Financial Activities 7.4 7.5 7.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 0.9 -4.1 Prof & Business Services 18.2 18.4 18.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 1.4 -1.1 Educ & Health Services 19.6 19.9 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 1.4 -0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 16.2 16.2 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 0.0 3.5 Other Services 9.5 8.9 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 -5.7 3.1 Federal Government 2.1 1.9 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 -9.1 -0.5 State & Local Government 60.9 60.3 58.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -1.1 -2.5

167.4 0.7 3.1 -2.5 164.3 0.7 6.2 5.2 22.7 2.3 3.3 17.7 1.7 3.4 1.9 7.3 2.4 18.5 1.5 19.6 -0.5 17.3 3.0 8.8 -3.9 2.0 3.2 58.5 -0.4

170.1 1.6 2.9 -5.0 167.1 1.7 6.3 2.1 23.4 3.2 3.4 18.1 1.9 3.5 5.1 7.3 -0.5 18.8 1.9 19.6 0.1 18.2 5.4 9.0 1.7 1.9 -2.6 59.0 0.8

173.7 2.1 2.9 0.5 170.7 2.2 6.8 7.5 23.9 2.1 3.5 18.5 1.9 3.6 3.1 7.4 1.1 19.7 4.8 19.9 1.2 18.7 2.5 9.2 2.6 1.9 1.9 59.5 1.0

176.6 1.7 3.0 1.5 173.6 1.7 7.4 9.7 24.3 1.4 3.6 18.6 2.0 3.7 1.5 7.4 1.1 20.8 5.1 20.3 2.2 18.8 0.9 9.4 1.4 1.9 -1.0 59.6 0.0

179.5 1.7 3.0 1.0 176.5 1.7 8.2 9.8 24.4 0.8 3.7 18.6 2.1 3.7 0.9 7.4 -0.2 21.5 3.5 20.6 1.4 19.1 1.3 9.4 0.5 1.9 -1.0 60.2 1.1

181.7 1.2 3.0 0.4 178.6 1.2 8.7 6.0 24.6 0.5 3.7 18.5 2.1 3.8 0.6 7.4 -1.0 21.8 1.5 20.8 0.9 19.4 1.4 9.5 0.6 1.9 -1.3 61.0 1.3

374.2 -0.3 190.1 -0.5 6.2 1222.8 606.5 616

375.0 0.2 193.8 1.9 5.5 1332.8 707.9 625

378.0 0.8 200.4 3.4 5.0 1677.7 920.6 757

383.3 1.4 206.3 3.0 4.5 1916.4 1177.6 739

389.0 1.5 211.1 2.3 4.3 2087.6 1391.0 697

394.4 1.4 215.0 1.9 4.4 2109.4 1386.7 723

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

369.4 1.2 192.4 0.2 8.3 659.9 603.0 57

372.3 0.8 190.5 -1.0 8.3 782.9 563.3 220

375.4 0.8 191.0 0.3 7.4 992.4 494.3 498

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.5 5.7 7.5 7

14.7 4.7 7.6 7.1

14.8 4.6 7.7 7.1

14.9 4.3 7.8 7.1

15.1 4.1 7.9 7.3

15.3 4.7 8 7.4

15.6 5.4 8.1 7.5

15.8 5.9 8.2 7.6

16.1 6.2 8.3 7.8

16.3 6.4 8.4 7.9

16.5 6.3 8.6 8

16.8 6.1 8.7 8.1

17 5.9 8.8 8.3

17.3 5.9 8.9 8.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 5.4

13.5 4.7

13.5 4.6

13.6 3.6

13.7 2.2

13.8 2.7

14 3.2

14.1 3.8

14.3 4.2

14.4 4.3

14.5 4.1

14.7 3.9

14.8 3.7

14.9 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

38.6 35.6

38.8 35.7

39 35.8

39.3 35.8

39.7 36

40.1 36.1

40.5 36.4

41 36.6

41.6 36.9

42 37.1

42.5 37.3

42.9 37.5

43.4 37.8

43.9 38

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.3 4

43.7 4.3

44 4.4

44.4 3.8

44.8 3.3

45.2 3.5

45.6 3.5

46 3.6

46.4 3.7

46.9 3.8

47.4 4

47.9 4.1

48.4 4.2

48.9 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

172.7 2.6

173.4 2

174 2.1

174.6 1.8

175.4 1.6

176.1 1.6

177 1.7

177.8 1.8

178.6 1.8

179.2 1.8

179.8 1.6

180.4 1.4

180.8 1.3

181.4 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -0.4

2.9 0.3

2.9 0.2

3 2.1

3 1.7

3 1.6

3 1.7

3 1

3 0.9

3 1.1

3 0.8

3 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

169.7 2.7

170.5 2

171 2.1

171.7 1.8

172.4 1.6

173.1 1.6

174 1.7

174.9 1.9

175.6 1.9

176.2 1.8

176.8 1.6

177.4 1.4

177.8 1.3

178.4 1.2

6.6 7.4

6.7 7.3

6.8 6.9

7 8.5

7.1 8.4

7.3 9.2

7.6 10.3

7.7 10.8

7.9 11.2

8.1 10.5

8.3 9.3

8.4 8.4

8.5 6.9

8.6 6.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.7 1.8

23.9 1.4

24 2.7

24.1 2.7

24.2 1.9

24.2 1.4

24.3 1.2

24.3 0.9

24.4 0.8

24.5 0.8

24.5 0.7

24.5 0.8

24.6 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 18.4 1.9

3.5 18.5 1.9

3.5 18.6 1.9

3.5 18.6 2

3.6 18.6 2

3.7 18.6 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 8.3

3.7 2.8

3.6 0.6

3.6 1.1

3.7 0.6

3.7 1.4

3.7 2.7

3.7 1.6

3.7 1.8

3.7 1

3.7 0.1

3.7 0.8

3.7 0.6

3.8 0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.1

7.3 0.4

7.4 1.9

7.4 2

7.4 1.8

7.4 1.4

7.4 0.7

7.4 0.4

7.4 0.1

7.4 -0.1

7.4 -0.2

7.4 -0.6

7.4 -1

7.4 -1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.3 3.9

19.6 4.6

19.9 5.5

20.1 5.2

20.4 5.4

20.6 5

20.9 5.1

21.2 5

21.3 4.7

21.4 4.1

21.5 3.1

21.6 2.2

21.7 1.8

21.8 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.8 0.7

19.9 0.9

19.9 1.5

20 1.6

20.1 1.5

20.3 1.9

20.4 2.3

20.5 2.8

20.5 2.2

20.6 1.7

20.6 1.2

20.7 0.7

20.7 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.6 3.3

18.6 1.5

18.7 3

18.8 2

18.8 1.4

18.8 0.9

18.8 0.7

18.9 0.7

19 0.7

19 1.3

19.1 1.5

19.2 1.7

19.2 1.5

19.3 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 3.3

9.2 2.4

9.2 2.8

9.3 2.1

9.3 1.6

9.3 1.5

9.4 1.4

9.4 1.3

9.4 1

9.4 0.6

9.4 0.3

9.4 0.1

9.4 0.2

9.4 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2 2.4

1.9 2.8

1.9 2.9

1.9 -0.3

1.9 -1

1.9 -1.1

1.9 -1

1.9 -0.9

1.9 -0.8

1.9 -1

1.9 -1.1

1.9 -1.3

59.7 2.5

59.6 1.5

59.5 0.2

59.4 -0.3

59.5 -0.4

59.5 -0.2

59.6 0.2

59.7 0.5

60 0.9

60.1 1.1

60.3 1.2

60.5 1.3

60.7 1.2

60.9 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

376.5 0.6

377.4 0.7

378.5 0.9

379.8 1.1

381 1.2

382.6 1.4

384 1.5

385.5 1.5

386.9 1.5

388.3 1.5

389.7 1.5

391.1 1.4

392.5 1.4

393.8 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

197.6 2.8

199.7 3

201.4 3.8

202.8 4.1

204.2 3.4

205.7 3

207.1 2.8

208.3 2.7

209.4 2.5

210.6 2.4

211.7 2.2

212.7 2.1

213.6 2

214.6 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

1486 800 686

1628 903 725

1772 975 798

1824 1005 819

1838 1061 777

1889 1117 772

1903 1200 703

2035 1332 703

2092 1377 715

2076 1392 684

2094 1401 692

2089 1394 695

2091 1388 702

2090 1390 700

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.4 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $40,000. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage level will be $53,200. Population growth will average 1.6 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 125,044.37 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,422,197 in January 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 5.7% as of January 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 81,659 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority

Employment growth is expected to average 2.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average a moderate 5.5 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.7 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector and the Educational and Health Services sector with average annual growth rates of 3.8 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. Growth in the Federal Government will decline at an average of -0.1 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES USF gets $5M to prepare studies, plans for Tampa medical school project

• The University of South Florida is planning to construct a new medical school in downtown Tampa that would house the Morsani College of Medicine and the USF Heart Health Institute. • The cost of the project could reach up to $157 million, $62 million of which USF hopes to get funded from the state.

• Though USF hasn’t received full funding yet, they have received $5 million from the Florida Board of Governors that they can now use to prepare studies to present to the Board with more information on the project. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 22, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r Clearwater launches plan to revive downtown

• Clearwater officials are initiating a plan to bring historic downtown Clearwater to life, with the goal of attracting more private investment and redevelopment.

• Half a million dollars going toward the project is money that has been generated from taxes and has been allocated for this purpose. Despite this funding, Vice Mayor Doreen Hock-DiPolito stresses that private funding is still needed in order to make the project a success.

• The revitalization includes establishing Clearwater as a major boating hub, developing a business incubator to attract tech startups, enhancing the downtown public library, making the Memorial Causeway Bridge an art piece through lighting and decorations, establishing a community market, and restructuring the city’s marketing strategy. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 29, 2015 Investors, artists, businesses merge as St. Petersburg’s Warehouse Arts District gains momentum • There has been a lot of activity in the Warehouse Arts District of St. Petersburg as companies move into the area. The district is composed of 50 or so buildings in varying sizes, most of which are currently vacant.

• These companies include Kozuba Vodka, a Polish company, who is planning on opening its first U.S. distillery in the Tampa area. Also potentially growing is an 80-employee tech company that wants to build another property. • The investor, Phil Farley, also wants to include a touch of flare with mixed-use spaces including artist and craft studios. His vision for the district is to create a unique area that makes the must-see lists of St. Petersburg visitors. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 29, 2015 Pitching Tampa’s virtues on CNBC, Vinik broadens reach of downtown project

• Jeff Vinik, Tampa Bay Lighting owner and former hedge fund manager, spoke to a national audience on 86

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

CNBC about Tampa’s potential. He currently heads a $1 billion project in downtown Tampa.

• Vinik has been traveling to recruit corporate headquarters to the area and to spread his message of Tampa’s development potential. • This national attention could serve as a major supporting force for Vinik’s development and as a catalyst for other growth in the Tampa area. Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 15, 2015 IT firm ReliaQuest expands Tampa headquarters, adds up to 55 jobs

• ReliaQuest, an information technology firm, is expanding its headquarters in Tampa and is therefore creating up to 55 new jobs, some of which will be in the company’s security operation center. • According to Gov. Rick Scott, ReliaQuest was considering other states in which to expand, but ultimately decided that Florida provided the best opportunities.

• The expansion represents the growth of the technology industry in Tampa and the competitiveness of the area’s high-tech workforce, according to Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn. Source: Tampa Bay Times, March 6, 2015 Tampa pharma manufacturer Xcelience adds 100 jobs, keeps 100 more • Xcelience, a pharmaceutical manufacturer headquartered in Tampa, is committed to creating 100 new jobs without losing any of the 100 current jobs.

• The company is investing $9 million in an expansion of its manufacturing operations and pharmaceutical development labs. • This expansion takes place as a result of the Qualified Target Industry (QTI) program, which is providing $500,000 in incentives as long as the company creates 100 high-wage performance-based jobs that pay a minimum average wage of $56,000 throughout a six-year period. Source: Tampa Bay Times, March 13, 2015

T ampa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t . P ete r sbu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C lea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

140000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

120000.0 110000.0 100000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

90000.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Tampa Payroll Employment

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1350.0

0.8

130000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

106.7 6.3 51.3 55.4 105.0 4.6 38.2 37.5 45.8 1.3

112.1 5.0 53.0 59.1 107.6 2.5 39.6 38.0 46.6 1.7

113.5 1.3 55.6 57.9 107.0 -0.6 39.8 37.5 47.9 2.7

116.0 2.2 57.3 58.8 108.1 1.0 40.3 37.5 48.1 0.5

120.7 4.0 59.7 61.0 110.9 2.6 41.3 38.0 49.3 2.4

125.6 4.1 62.5 63.2 115.2 3.9 42.3 38.8 50.4 2.2

132.4 5.4 66.2 66.2 119.1 3.3 43.9 39.5 52.1 3.3

140.9 6.4 70.2 70.7 124.1 4.3 46.0 40.5 54.0 3.8

149.0 5.8 74.0 75.0 128.6 3.6 47.9 41.3 56.3 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1106.1 1123.8 1148.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 1.6 2.2 Manufacturing 58.2 58.8 59.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 1.1 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 1047.9 1065.0 1089.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 1.6 2.3 Construction & Mining 52.9 52.7 54.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.1 -0.3 2.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 209.4 213.5 218.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.9 2.6 Wholesale Trade 45.9 46.3 48.4 Retail Trade 138.3 141.4 143.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.1 25.8 26.6 Information 25.7 25.9 25.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 0.6 -0.6 Financial Activities 89.4 91.6 95.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 2.5 4.3 Prof & Business Services 174.2 182.6 190.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 4.8 4.5 Educ & Health Services 178.0 181.0 182.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.7 0.7 Leisure & Hospitality 121.4 123.0 128.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.3 4.3 Other Services 42.0 41.3 41.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 Federal Government 24.0 22.9 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 -4.6 -1.3 State & Local Government 131.0 130.5 129.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -0.4 -0.6

1177.1 2.5 60.0 1.0 1117.1 2.6 57.1 5.4 222.8 1.8 49.1 146.5 27.3 26.2 2.0 99.6 4.3 199.6 4.5 185.1 1.6 132.5 3.2 42.0 2.3 22.7 0.5 129.4 -0.2

1198.9 1.8 61.6 2.7 1137.2 1.8 58.1 1.7 229.2 2.9 49.7 151.7 27.8 26.0 -0.9 101.1 1.4 207.1 3.8 188.0 1.6 133.4 0.7 42.3 0.7 22.9 0.9 129.1 -0.2

1226.8 2.3 61.2 -0.6 1165.6 2.5 60.5 4.1 235.6 2.8 50.1 156.1 28.8 26.3 1.2 102.4 1.4 214.1 3.4 192.9 2.6 136.1 2.0 44.1 4.1 23.4 1.9 130.2 0.9

1259.6 2.7 62.0 1.1 1197.7 2.8 65.0 7.4 239.8 1.8 51.4 157.3 30.0 26.6 1.1 104.0 1.6 226.3 5.7 198.9 3.1 138.5 1.7 44.6 1.2 23.2 -0.6 130.8 0.5

1286.3 2.1 62.3 0.6 1224.0 2.2 70.5 8.6 242.4 1.1 52.7 157.6 31.1 26.8 0.7 104.3 0.3 236.2 4.4 202.2 1.7 141.1 1.9 44.7 0.3 23.0 -0.8 132.6 1.3

1302.3 1.2 62.3 0.0 1240.0 1.3 75.2 6.6 244.2 0.7 53.8 157.2 31.7 27.1 1.0 103.5 -0.8 239.9 1.6 204.0 0.9 143.8 1.9 45.0 0.7 22.8 -1.1 134.6 1.5

2882.4 1.0 1333.0 0.9 7.3 11600.3 7241.2 4359

2920.7 1.3 1355.1 1.7 6.3 12177.2 7350.9 4826

2966.7 1.6 1384.9 2.2 5.7 14251.5 9580.7 4671

3014.7 1.6 1414.0 2.1 5.6 16831.8 11507.8 5324

3063.0 1.6 1440.0 1.8 5.4 19222.3 13962.7 5260

3111.0 1.6 1464.8 1.7 5.4 19985.6 14387.4 5598

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2796.1 1.0 1292.9 -0.2 11.8 6346.0 4510.8 1835

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

2832.1 1.3 1307.9 1.2 10.7 6948.5 4491.6 2457

2854.1 0.8 1321.4 1.0 9.0 9029.5 5892.9 3137

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

123.9 4.2 61.2 62.7

125 3.8 62 63

126.2 4.1 62.8 63.3

127.5 4.4 63.8 63.7

129.6 4.6 64.8 64.8

131.3 5.1 65.7 65.6

133.3 5.6 66.7 66.6

135.5 6.3 67.7 67.7

137.8 6.4 68.7 69.1

139.9 6.5 69.7 70.2

141.9 6.4 70.7 71.2

143.9 6.2 71.7 72.2

146.1 6 72.6 73.5

148.1 5.9 73.5 74.5

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

114.3 4

114.9 3.8

115.6 4.1

116.2 3.6

117.4 2.7

118.4 3.1

119.6 3.4

120.9 4.1

122.5 4.3

123.6 4.4

124.7 4.3

125.8 4

127.1 3.8

128.1 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42 38.7

42.2 38.8

42.4 38.9

42.7 38.9

43.2 39.2

43.7 39.4

44.1 39.6

44.7 39.9

45.3 40.2

45.8 40.4

46.2 40.6

46.7 40.8

47.2 41.1

47.7 41.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.8 1.6

50.2 2.1

50.6 2.5

51 2.9

51.4 3.2

51.8 3.3

52.3 3.3

52.7 3.4

53.2 3.5

53.8 3.7

54.3 3.9

54.9 4.1

55.4 4.1

56 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1214.8 1.9

1223.2 1.9

1230.4 2.6

1238.9 2.9

1247.1 2.7

1255.5 2.6

1263.6 2.7

1272.3 2.7

1278.5 2.5

1284 2.3

1289 2

1293.8 1.7

1297.3 1.5

1300.6 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61 -2.8

61.2 -1

61.3 -0.3

61.5 1.6

61.8 1.3

62 1.3

62.1 1.3

62 0.7

62.1 0.5

62.3 0.5

62.4 0.6

62.4 0.7

62.4 0.4

62.4 0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1153.8 2.1

1162 2.1

1169.1 2.8

1177.3 3

1185.3 2.7

1193.5 2.7

1201.6 2.8

1210.3 2.8

1216.4 2.6

1221.7 2.4

1226.6 2.1

1231.4 1.7

1234.9 1.5

1238.2 1.3

58.9 1.3

60 3.9

60.9 3.6

62.1 7.6

63.2 7.2

64.4 7.3

65.5 7.5

66.8 7.7

68.3 8.1

69.8 8.5

71.3 8.9

72.6 8.7

73.8 8

74.8 7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

233.1 2.7

234.9 2.6

236.4 2.7

237.9 3.1

238.6 2.3

239.2 1.9

240.2 1.6

241.1 1.3

241.3 1.1

242 1.2

242.8 1.1

243.6 1

243.9 1.1

244 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

49.7 154.9 28.3

49.9 155.9 28.6

50.2 156.4 28.9

50.7 157 29.3

50.9 157.2 29.5

51.2 157.2 29.8

51.5 157.4 30.1

52 157.5 30.5

52.3 157.2 30.7

52.6 157.5 30.9

52.9 157.9 31.2

53.2 157.9 31.4

53.4 157.6 31.6

53.6 157.2 31.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26.3 1.5

26.4 1.6

26.3 1.1

26.3 0.7

26.4 0.2

26.7 1

26.8 2.2

26.6 1.1

26.7 1.3

26.8 0.7

26.8 0

26.9 0.9

27 1

27.1 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

101.7 1

102.1 0.3

102.7 1.8

103.2 2.3

103.7 2

103.9 1.8

104.1 1.3

104.3 1.1

104.5 0.7

104.5 0.5

104.3 0.2

104.1 -0.2

103.8 -0.6

103.5 -0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

210.9 3.4

213 3

214.7 3.1

217.8 4

220.9 4.8

224.3 5.3

227.9 6.2

232 6.5

234.6 6.2

235.8 5.1

236.6 3.8

237.8 2.5

239 1.9

239.5 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

190.9 1.7

192.5 2.2

193.7 3.4

194.7 3.1

196.3 2.9

198.4 3.1

199.7 3.1

201.2 3.3

201.4 2.6

202.1 1.8

202.5 1.4

202.9 0.9

202.9 0.7

203.7 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

134.8 1.6

135.7 0.6

136.6 2.7

137.4 3.1

138 2.4

138 1.7

138.6 1.5

139.2 1.3

139.8 1.3

140.7 1.9

141.6 2.2

142.5 2.4

143 2.2

143.5 2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 4.6

44 4.5

44.1 5.7

44.3 1.9

44.4 1.5

44.6 1.3

44.6 1.1

44.7 0.9

44.7 0.5

44.7 0.3

44.7 0.2

44.8 0.2

44.9 0.4

45 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 2.3

23.4 2.6

23.3 2.5

23.3 0.3

23.3 -0.4

23.2 -0.6

23.2 -0.7

23.1 -0.7

23.1 -0.6

23 -0.8

22.9 -1

22.9 -1.1

22.8 -1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

130 0.8

130.1 1

130.3 1.1

130.3 0.5

130.4 0.3

130.6 0.4

131 0.5

131.3 0.8

131.9 1.1

132.3 1.3

132.8 1.4

133.3 1.5

133.8 1.5

134.4 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2949 1.5

2960.9 1.6

2972.6 1.6

2984.3 1.6

2996.5 1.6

3008.4 1.6

3020.7 1.6

3033.1 1.6

3044.7 1.6

3056.9 1.6

3069.1 1.6

3081.2 1.6

3093.5 1.6

3105.2 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1371.5 2

1382 1.7

1389.7 2.3

1396.2 2.8

1403 2.3

1410.5 2.1

1417.9 2

1424.6 2

1430.6 2

1436.9 1.9

1443.4 1.8

1449.3 1.7

1455.3 1.7

1461.7 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

13074 8634 4439

13846 9498 4348

14829 10025 4804

15257 10166 5091

15668 10578 5089

16412 10993 5420

16961 11620 5341

18286 12840 5446

18938 13542 5396

19011 13885 5126

19384 14150 5233

19556 14273 5283

19728 14332 5396

19845 14410 5435

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

I n d ust r y L ocation Q uotient

E X P L A N AT I O N A N D I N T E R P R E TAT I O N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C A L C U L AT I O N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2015

SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u